8/21/24 - $exls - Want 2 own, but <$308/21/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:EXLS
Want 2 own, but <$30
- reviewing some B2B names and old "friend" $TNET. there's a PE that has about 70% of their assets in NYSE:TNET and also bowling (meme-ish) stonk NYSE:BOWL , and 13F's have hit... so what else does a guy who enjoys looking at these things to unwind on a wednesday night (me lol) do? turns out they also own NASDAQ:EXLS
- NASDAQ:EXLS is basically a better performing, better margin, more focused (half or more customers are insurance) and AI-forward version of $TNET. mgmt seems competent too from a few clips i've watched (i'd recommend everyone incorporate this into their due diligence... mgmt speech can really bull you up or turn you off).
- the bottom line is this... stock is basically a good LT performer. there's probably a lot more to go in a multi-year context. I'd like to own it. and EPS can continue to grow mid to high teens. that's great. it's not *exactly* software margins, so i can't say "let's do 25 or 30x PE" for something that's growing and in a macro-cyclical period of meh, but i'll give you 1.5x PEG on 15% which is ~22.5x and I'll even put it on the 2025 EPS of $1.86, which gets me close to $42. I think downside here is probably to re-test the earnings dump/repump level of $32.
- 20% return for YE25 from here... not bad. not amazing either. so while i *want* to own it, it's not a must own for me (I can own anything! probably you can too). so we will keep turning over rocks. if this thing hits $32 i reassess. but realistically i'd prefer it under $30.
- if you think/ see an AI-transformation here that's not being baked into their client acquisition growth or margin profile... then this would be some alpha that we can all use to make good money buying the stock where it stands today. we can of course try to buy some red days. but anyway. it's on my radar.
have a gn. lmk what you think
V
EXLS trade ideas
EXLSERVICE HOLDING Buy the breakout buy the breakout of the corrective structure.
put a wise stopploss or - since this company con be considered strong and relyable as an investment - keep the trade and add more for cheaper price at the 1,618 / 0.618 co-incidence area as marked below.
trade at your own risk, this is just my view and not a trading call.
peace
Organized Volatility: More One-Line PracticeIn this video, I follow up on the trend line exercise I introduced in the last post. The exercise is designed so that you can learn about markets and price flow in your own experience. There is beauty and harmony in each chart that shows the footprints of the buyers and sellers.
To most people, the price action on a chart looks chaotic. It's not chaotic, you need to learn how to look, and how to see. This is the beginning of designing a structured method for trading and It starts with some openness and curiosity.
This trend line practice isolates 2 confirmed swings with the same size reaction legs. By identifying two same sized swings, we have found some organized volatility and behavior. We can then participate in that continued behavior or have a way to know when it changes.
Shane
Buy EXLS - 5th wave pivot identifiedPrice reversal and pivot from the end of wave 4. Price bounced off support zone of falling wedge chart pattern. Buying with 1% allocation. Open @ 30.73 TP @ 32.5 c.5.7%
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Strategy:
Based on Elliot wave theory, pivot points and classic chart patterns. The 5th wave pivot strategy identifies the last impulse of the Elliot wave sequence. The 5th wave can be equal to the 3rd wave or extend to the 1.618 Fibonacci level.
Entry: A position is taken when a pivot point is reached at the end of the 4th corrective wave and the price reverses. This position is also confirmed by bouncing from the lower bound of a chart pattern or from price support level.
Exit: TP is taken from top of wave 3 or the previous resistance level.
$EXLS Bullish Parallel Uptrend BreakNASDAQ:EXLS Bullish to bearish reversal. Parallel Uptrend Break and reported earnings miss. All the elements of a top. ExlService Holdings, Inc. (EXLS) reported earnings on July 27, 2023, and the stock sold off after the announcement. The company reported earnings per share of $1.46, which was ahead of analyst expectations of $1.35. However, revenue of $405.0 million was below analyst expectations of $410.0 million.
There are a few reasons why the stock sold off after the earnings announcement. First, the revenue miss was a bit of a surprise. Second, the company's guidance for the third quarter was below analyst expectations. Third, the overall market was down on the day, which may have also contributed to the sell-off.
mean reversion with enhancementsIm looking for mean reversion opportunities in this stock currently. My SL is bassed on time to profit ratio. i dont use stop losses but will get out if theres a 50% decline. I tested for probalistic monthly sharpe ratio outperformance of the s and p 500.
I tested for monthly normality with the kolmogrov smirnov statistic. and looked for a non-significant p-value in order to signify the distibution fitting
I measured the annual sharpe ratio outperformance. I also measured the uler,calmar,sterling and martin ratio to compare ma drawdown, avg drawdown and loss after previous loss using the ulcer index.
I used the hurst exponent to measure if the return distributions are indeed mean reverting then lastly i created a portfolio based around a basket of qualified stocks and maximized its sharpe ratio.
EXLS: VCP Pattern VCP: 11W 14/2 4T
RS: 75
The posted chart contains a VCP (volatility contraction pattern). The first label "W" stands for weekly and shows the duration of the entire consolidation. In the middle label, the percentage of contractions is indicated (for example, "15/4"), with 15 representing the -15% depth of the base and 4 representing -4% of the last contraction. The last part "T" represents the number of contractions. The light blue lines in the chart correspond to the contractions. A more detailed description can be found in Mark Minervini's books.
RS stands for relative strength and measures the strength of the stock compared to the overall market. The value range is 1-99 with 99 being the highest value. The rank was generated by fyntrade.
$EXLS is leading in the tech sector. Is it ready to go higher?Notes:
* Very strong up trend on all time frames
* Great earnings track record
* Breaking above historical resistance of 145.21 with higher than average volume
* Very close to its 50 day line
* Offering a low risk entry
Technicals:
Sector: Technology - Information Technology Services
Relative Strength vs. Sector: 1.04
Relative Strength vs. SP500: 1.03
U/D Ratio: 1.38
Base Depth: 20.34%
Distance from breakout buy point: -5.99%
Volume 45.0% above its 15 day avg.
Trade Idea:
* You can enter now as it's breaking above historical resistance with higher than average volume
* If you're looking for a better entry you can look for one around the $143 area as that should serve as short term support
* This stock usually has local tops when the price closes around 10.77% above its 50 EMA
* Consider selling into strength if the price closes 10.57% to 10.97% (or higher) above its 50 EMA
* The last closing price is 1.9% away from its 50 EMA
Exlservice Holdings (Weekly)
Fundamentals:
EXLS returned 26.5% over the past year. Earnings have grown 5.3% per year over the past 5 years. Earnings growth over the past year 19.3% exceeding its 5 year average. Also exceeding the IT industry by 6%. No Dividends on this one.
Technicals:
EXLS chart going back 8 years shows that we seem to be re-visiting trendline resistance after testing the 200-period moving average on healthy pullbacks.
Buying on strength at today's price (which is slightly above fair value) is one option for a short term trade. But if you are in it for the long haul, it might be wise to see if a pullback finds itself back in the low to mid-60s, which is where I personally will be looking to board this trend.