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HOOD trade ideas

Good-Buy STOCKS: HOODHi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈📉 After losing nearly 90% of it's high, NASDAQ:HOOD is currently trading close to all-time lows. This could make for a great buy and hold opportunity, whilst some patience may be needed to wait for ideal target zones. Higher lows are observed after bottoming out at $6, indicating that the bottom is most likely in for HOOD. In other words a spot entry here has a really low risk and high reward setup. _______________________ 📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 💎Hit like & Follow 👍 We thank you for your support ! CryptoCheck NASDAQ:HOOD
NASDAQ:HOODLong
by CryptoCheck-
9
$HOOD Profitability Is Within ReachRobinhood Markets, Inc (NASDAQ: HOOD) is currently benefiting from the high interest rate environment since its interest revenue has increased 278% from last year. Furthermore, Since the brokerage is expecting a seasonal increase in its other revenues, that coupled with the net interest revenue growth, will push it over to profitability – beating its EPS estimates of -$0.01 according to our projections. With the brokerage set to release its Q2 earnings report on August 2 after-hours, going long on HOOD stock ahead of its earnings may be a profitable decision. HOOD Fundamentals Q1 Financials Robinhood posted $441 million in revenue in Q1 2023, which represented a 47% YoY increase. While transaction revenue declined by 5% and other revenues stayed relatively flat at $24 million, the brokerage’s net interest revenues increased by almost 280%. The increase in net interest revenue can be mainly attributed to the high-interest rate environment that gives Robinhood better margins and the steady monthly net deposits it has been seeing. While the $511 million net loss may turn off some investors, the increase in net loss is mainly due to a one-time expense of $485 million related to the 2021 Founders Award Cancellation. Without the added $485 million Robinhood would’ve only realized around $26 million in net loss which would be almost a 97% YoY decline and would’ve seen it close to profitability. Robinhood also ended the Quarter with no debt, and while its current ratio has been declining over the past five quarters, its current assets can still cover its current liabilities. With that in mind, Robinhood’s current liabilities have been increasing QoQ since Q1 2022. In Q1 2022, the brokerage had $11.5 billion in current liabilities. Out of its current liabilities, $7.1 billion were payables to users which are free credit balances from users’ uninvested deposits attributed to users as a result of settled trades and other security-related transactions. The company’s current liabilities skyrocketed in Q1 2023 to $20.6 billion despite payables to users declining to $4.9 million. While this may seem like a negative thing, it is important to note that the increase in current liabilities is the result of the company reporting $11.4 billion in user cryptocurrencies safeguarding obligation which is required for the brokerage to report since it is safeguarding cryptocurrencies due to the launch of its crypto wallet in April 2022. In fact, this obligation increased from $8.4 billion at the beginning of 2023 which is a good sign that Robinhood’s crypto wallet product is seeing more users. Q2 Forecast Robinhood’s current EPS analyst estimate is around -$0.01, and we are projecting that it can beat this EPS estimate. The brokerage’s management forecasted its net interest revenue to be $223 million in Q2 and its other revenues to increase by $30 million due to a seasonal increase in Q2, putting it around $56 million, which only leaves transaction revenue unknown. In April and May, Robinhood saw 11.5 million and 10.6 million monthly active users respectively, which adds up to an average of 11.05 million monthly active users. We can use the average monthly active users to estimate the transaction revenue for Robinhood. Apart from Q3 2022 when the brokerage has seen above average equity trading volume, Robinhood’s average transaction revenue per MAU grew in a smooth, linear fashion. From the chart, we can forecast the average transaction revenue per MAU to be around $18.7 which adds up to a transaction revenue projection of $206 million. That said, the lower trading volume in April and May compared to Q1 may influence the average transaction revenue per MAU, but that is still to be seen. Quarter Monthly Average Users (million) Average Transaction Revenue Per MAU Transaction Revenue (million) Q1 2022 15.90 $13.71 $218.00 Q2 2022 14.00 $14.43 $202.00 Q3 2022 12.20 $17.05 $208.00 Q4 2022 11.40 $16.32 $186.00 Q1 2023 11.80 $17.54 $207.00 Q2 2023 *11.05 *$18.68 *$206.38 This means that Robinhood’s total revenue projection should be around $485 million, a more than 50% YoY increase, after adding the management’s forecast for net interest revenue of $223 million and other revenue of $56 million. Furthermore, since Robinhood already went below its OpEx excluding SBC range estimates, I’m going to use the lower end of its OpEx guidance, which is around $355 million. Adding the $122 million, which represents the midpoint of the management SBC estimates in its Q1 earnings call, would see the total operating expenses reach $477 million. That means that Robinhood would realize $8 million in net income and record an EPS of $0.01. All in millions except EPS Revenue $485 Operating Expenses $477 Net Income $8 Outstanding Shares 903 EPS $0.01 Risks Robinhood’s monthly active users have been declining for the past 5 months and have been seeing an overall downward trend in its YoY monthly active users growth. While Robinhood hasn’t seen its effect on its revenues yet due to the incredible growth of its net interest revenues, when interest rates start going down again in 2024, it will pose a problem for Robinhood since its net interest revenues will have lower margins. That means Robinhood will have to grow its monthly active users if it wants to maintain its current level of revenue. Technical Analysis HOOD stock is trading in a bullish trend as it is trading in an upward channel. Looking at the indicators, the stock is above the 200, 50, and 21 MAs which is a bullish indication. However, it is worth noting that the stock is currently testing the 21 MA support. Meanwhile, the RSI is neutral at 58 and the MACD is neutral as well. As for the fundamentals, HOOD stock has a significant upcoming catalyst in its Q2 earnings on August 2 after-hours. Given that the brokerage may post a profit according to our projections, the stock may soar. For this reason, investors could wait for the stock to retest the lower trendline to enter long positions ahead of the brokerage’s Q2 earnings. HOOD Forecast Robinhood had an overall good Q1, with the company reducing its operating expenses prior to SBC and being close to achieving break even if we excluded the one-time payment of $485 million. Furthermore, the brokerage is seeing incredible net interest revenue growth and expects a $30 million seasonal increase in other revenues. Based on this, and our projections, the brokerage may be on track to post a profitable quarter, which is why going long on HOOD stock may be a profitable investment.
NASDAQ:HOOD
by Penny_Stocks_Today
HOOD: Pullback to $12.25 would be healthy for next leg up 💵 The 50 EMA is crossing over the 200 EMA creating a beautiful Golden Cross. A great BUY signal...the downside is this crossover oftentimes creates impulsive candlesticks...i view this as two exposed electrical lines coming in contact and spewing sparks...so long as the position of the 50 EMA on your Daily chart is creeping higher than the 200 EMA...do not fret the fireworks show...the Golden Cross is going to happen Since Hood exited the triangle pattern it has propelled upwards using 3 channels...we have dropped from the strongest channel to the 2nd strongest...but this is the original channel we exited the triangle from June 14th. We are still within a position a position of strength 💪 ONLY a break below the support of the 3rd channel would cause me serious concerns...too many institutional Buyers are loading up on HOOD so i anticipate an attempted shake out. Just HOLD until the charts say otherwise...
NASDAQ:HOODLong
by Midas_Mouse
SIR ROBINHOOD: THE MOST TECHNICALLY RESPECTFUL ASSET EVER 😍 Since breaking clear of Triangle resistance on June 14th this asset has been an absolute pleasure to chart. It has formed 2 upward channels of strength and recently formed the 3rd and strongest upwards channel on July 11th I expect some pullback prompting profit taking too early but earnings typically creates a runup about a week prior. Next earnings Aug 2nd. Oftentimes a hard drop following Positive or Negative Earnings..so will likely take profits on all my aug 4th CALLs with various strikes $11-$14 Heavily stacked in jan 19 $20 CALLS with most between 200% to 300% profit already
NASDAQ:HOOD
by Midas_Mouse
HOOD - Is someone loading the boat?We see the long base. It looks like accumulation to me. The Pitchforks L-MLH shows good support in the angle price is flowing. Now that price climbed above the 200 D. MA, it's even more worth putting HOOD on the watch list, or even start to buying in. In such situations, where it looks good, but no clear indication by my strategy fires, I reverse pyramid my position, for example like: 1. Buy = 50% 2. Buy = 25% 3. Buy = 12.5% ...and so on, until I have my full stake on the plate. And of course I look for profit taking on the way up, selling 1., then 2. then 3. .... And I always try to optimize with Options Strategies. So, what ever happens, I sleep like a Baby §8-)
NASDAQ:HOODLong
by Tr8dingN3rd
$HOOD On Track To ReboundWith the macroeconomic stability the US has been witnessing lately, more investors have been returning to the stock market and crypto trading. One of the companies benefitting from this return is leading trading platform Robinhood Markets, Inc. (NASDAQ: HOOD) which is up nearly 32% YTD. With this in mind, HOOD could have more room to grow this year as the company’s crypto trading platform might be gaining market share from crypto trading giant Coinbase Global, Inc. (NASDAQ: COIN) according to analysts. Given the company’s plans to close an acquisition this quarter and its impressive performance so far this year, the HOOD stock forecast appears to be brighter than ever. HOOD Fundamentals Gaining Market Share With the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) suing Coinbase for trading unregistered securities, analysts believe that HOOD has been gaining share over Coinbase over the past few months. The reason analysts share that belief is that Coinbase should have realized $117 million in revenues in April according to the current fee Coinbase collects, but in reality, it only realized $110 million. On that note, Coinbase increased its fee from 1.33% in Q3 2022 to 1.68% at the moment and this increase may be a pivotal reason for customers turning away from Coinbase to HOOD which offers commission-free crypto trading. In this way, HOOD has the potential to increase its crypto trading platform’s market share substantially. New Acquisition & Cost Cuts HOOD is also planning to increase the range of financial services it is offering to its customers and add it to its existing cash card product with the planned acquisition of X1 for $95 million in cash, with the transaction expected to close this quarter. X1 is a credit card company that offers instant reward points and does not rely on credit scores for approvals; instead, income is used to determine whether or not an application is approved and the credit limit for the cardholder. The X1 acquisition is certainly on brand for HOOD since the X1 card has no annual fee, no foreign transaction fees, and no late fees, which is something ingrained in the core identity of HOOD. Furthermore, the acquisition will provide a new revenue stream for HOOD and will offer an opportunity to implement X1 in its brokerage platform especially since X1 was planning to give its cardholders the ability to buy stocks by using earned reward points. Around the same time HOOD announced its plan to acquire X1, HOOD laid off 7% of its staff to lower its costs, since HOOD has trimmed its guidance for 2023 GAAP total operating expenses to $2.345B-$2.485B from the previous guidance of $2.375B-$2.515B. In this way, HOOD might return to profitability especially with the growing interest in stock and crypto trading due to the improving macroeconomic outlook. Breaking Out Of A Pattern On the daily chart, HOOD stock successfully broke out of a falling wedge pattern and confirmed the break with a retest of the wedge’s trendline. With the stock forming higher highs, HOOD could witness an upward trend from current levels which is supported by the platform’s successes this year. For this reason, the HOOD stock forecast could be extremely bullish this year. HOOD Financials n its Q1 2023 report, HOOD’s assets increased 20% QoQ from $23 billion to $27.7 billion, while its cash and cash equivalents decreased 14% QoQ from $6.3 billion to $5.4 billion. HOOD’s total liabilities increased by 27% QoQ from $16.3 billion to $20.7 billion. Revenue also increased 47% YoY from $299 million to $441 million. Operating costs increased almost 37% from $690 million to $950 million, which contributed to the operating loss increase of 30% YoY from $391 million to $509 million. As a result, HOOD’s net loss increased 30% YoY to $511 million. Technical Analysis HOOD stock’s trend is neutral with the stock trading in a sideways channel between $8.33 and $10.15 which it has broken recently. Looking at the indicators, the stock is trading above the 200, 50, and 21 MAs which are bullish indications. Meanwhile, the RSI is overbought at 74 and the MACD is bullish. As for the fundamentals, HOOD has an upcoming catalyst in the closing of the X1 acquisition this quarter. Moreover, HOOD is expected to post its Q2 earnings on August 23 which are critical to confirm whether HOOD has been gaining market share from Coinbase or not. HOOD Forecast HOOD is currently seeing a lot of interest, with speculations of it gaining market share over its competitor in the crypto trading space Coinbase. Given HOOD’s efforts to cut its expenses with the last round of layoffs, the platform is actively improving its long-term profitability prospects which would be a major achievement for the company. Meanwhile, HOOD is actively trying to broaden its product offering by venturing into the credit card space with the planned acquisition of X1 which is set to be closed this quarter. For these reasons, the HOOD stock forecast appears to be bright this year.
NASDAQ:HOOD
by Penny_Stocks_Today
$HOOD - A New Generation, A New Bull MarketState of the Stock Robinhood’s time in the stock market has been an arduous one and not one without controversy. The stock went public in a hotly anticipated IPO at about $36.41 on July 29th, 2021. It saw tremendous interest in the first week of trading reaching an overly lofty value at ~$85 a share before starting to sell off. This sell off has relentlessly continued and in many places, you will find negative commentary on the stock. I personally believe that the stock’s price action bottomed on June 17th, 2022 at about $6.84 a share. Since then the stock has been slowly plodding along and striking higher lows, which I will illustrate later in the charting. I also believe that the stock’s story is close to turning around and could get more positive attention in the later half of this year. I am going to talk about the balance sheet, cost cutting, charts, and the controversy. I will be limiting my comments on the balance sheet to lines that I believe deserve notice. For this post, I will be comparing Robinhood to their old school rival, Charles Schwab. The Balance Sheet (See Robinhood's Financials) Overall, I read Robinhood’s balance sheet as being quite strong. Particularly in the amount of cash and sort term investments that the company is carrying. At 5.46 Billion in cash and 1.52 Billion in short term investments the company can cover operating expenses (excl. COGS) for about 3.5 years. The company has also shared that the short term investments are in <1 year term treasuries. Which is quite a good decision given the current rates. I only wish they had purchased a little more than 500 million or so. As of this writing (6-11-23), Robinhood carries a market cap of ~$8.5 billion as well. Their cash position is nearly the size of their entire equity. In comparison, SCHW (Charles Schwab) has about $75 billion in cash and a market cap of 100 Billion. I believe that the market is underestimating how Robinhood can deploy that cash. Lastly, Robinhood is very close (9.41 market) to their book value per share (7.83). In comparison, SCHW has a book value per share of 15.36 and is trading at 55.0 in the market. I believe this illustrates that Robinhood is quite cheap, even after the June ’22 bounce when it was cheaper than the book. (See Robinhood's Financials) Next, the cashflow at Robinhood is quite good and turned positive in Q4’22. Whereas their rivals are experiencing negative free cash flow during this same period. Robinhood, on a relative basis for this metric, looks to be outperforming during the banking crisis. During their earnings calls they have also reported a net increase in deposits as well as assets under custody (AUC) increasing by an impressive 26% due to the run on stocks in 2023. What I find most interesting about this is that customer cash in Robinhood has steadily grown to $11 billion from $2 billion at IPO. It has been on an impressive path of growth. I believe this is the result of their strong “Brokerage Cash Sweep” program and the rates they’ve been able to offer. They have been able to effectively remove the friction between treasury yield and their customers. This also creates a beneficial situation where their clients can deploy capital quickly, while maintaining some yield from their cash. Effectively, creating productive reserves for their customers who can choose to deploy it at any moment right on their app. (See Robinhood's Financials) Lastly, the company itself is quite close to profitability. The next 4 quarters are projected by broader WallStreet to come in at an EPS of about -0.01 to -0.03. Any positive change in their costs or earnings could lead to a surprise profit. Such as cash from treasury yield, cost cutting measures, new products, or increased business. The company itself continues to stress, that they are becoming leaner as time goes on. I believe that to be true. Cutting Costs – The Layoffs In 2022, Robinhood performed several rounds of lay offs. This allowed them to cut Q2 ’22 and Q3 ’22 operating expenses significantly (excl. COGS). This does not appear to have impacted their revenue growth and has given them the added benefit of being ‘right sized’. And to the best of my knowledge, no further lay offs are currently on the table. In fact, their revenue is now higher than it has ever been since IPO at $447 million and is pushing them ever closer to profitability. “Robinhood Is Laying Off 9% of Its Full-Time Employees” – Wall Street Journal, Apr. 29, 2022 www.wsj.com “Robinhood Lays Off 23% of Staff as Retail Investors Fade From Platform” – Wall Street Journal, Aug. 2, 2022 www.wsj.com 2023 Road Map – 4 Catalysts Now that we’ve talked about cost cutting, let’s take a look at the road map and see if there are opportunities for fundamental growth. I will list out 4 that I believe can have a positive impact on their business. Options Trading in Cash Accounts Margin Outside Gold Futures Trading UK Market Expansion Lets tackle the first two on the list. Options Trading in Cash Accounts should continue to grow their existing business. This should increase their revenue generated per user as more current customers have access to more products. Options trading is particularly popular among Robinhood’s customer demographic. Margin Outside Gold I find personally controversial. I personally don’t believe in using margin. Regardless, it should also increase their revenue generated per user. While both of these are improvements that could turn the company profitable for EPS. They are not as major as the next two items. Futures trading would open an entire new market for the Robinhood user. I believe it is an incredibley potent catalyst for their user base and will allow their customers to trade more often and in new ways. Robinhood advancing offerings for active traders In March, we applied for a Futures Commission Merchant license and, if approved on a typical timeline, we expect to launch futures trading by the end of 2023. s28.q4cdn.com UK Market Expansion should allow them to acquire a significant number of new users. Robinhood continues to explore growth opportunities, expands access globally With an experienced team leading and an existing license in place, we believe we’re on track for our ambitious goal of launching brokerage services in the UK by the end of the year. s28.q4cdn.com To summarize, I believe expanding into a new country, the UK, and providing futures trading to their existing customers they expand their business significantly over time. Lets take a look now at the charts and see what we can find in the price action. Charting A Path The first thing of note on Robinhood’s stock chart is that a series of higher lows have been put in. The price action, for the first time since IPO, is showing an increasing pattern in the price. I believe the stock has a classic Falling Wedge which I interpret as bullish. I believe the wedge has formed because of the positive developments in the balance sheet, cost cutting, and the future outlook. Examining the MACD on the 1D time scale we also see higher lows put in as well as an MACD crossover onto the positive scale. Overall, I read the charts as having increasingly positive momentum. I also believe that momentum is growing, albeit slowly. Lastly, on the 2D time scale my favorite indicator, DMI, shows the bulls having taken control on ~May 24 2023. I don’t think it’s any coincidence that was the low after the most recent earnings report. I believe the majority of the bears have left the stock as evident by their strength at ~11.5. We also have seen the natural termination of the ADX which implies, to me, that the previous trading trend for the stock has come to an end. A new trend does appear to be forming. It could fizzle out, but that’s up to Robinhood’s management. I believe all of the necessary setups are currently there for them to succeed as both a company and a stock. Closing Thoughts & Possible Risks The Demographic & The Controversy By discussing Robinhood here, I feel that I must mention reddit’s r/wallstreetbets. The community there has a significant impact I believe on Robinhood’s success or failure. The community has a significant following and many of their members use the app. I believe they are an opportunity for Robinhood as well as a possible risk. The 14 million members are potential customers for the Futures trading introduction as well as the increased margin offerings. However, the community has aligned itself with being against the Robinhood app and have been in a ‘boycott’ of the app since the GME trading saga of early 2021. While the community is very vocal on the matter, many of the posts continue to show use of the Robinhood app. At a minimum, it remains controversial, but still in use. This has led me to believe that most of the drama has faded and because of the high quality product Robinhood offers, has started to draw users back to the app. I believe this is well illustrated in their MAU and NFA graphs. There’s a unique opportunity here for them to either win back this community or lose them forever. This could also be related to the flurry of trading activity seen in stocks related to AI in the past few months. Heavy Insider Selling An additional risk is that the insiders, specifically Tenev Vladimir, CEO & Bhatt Baiju, Chief Creative Officer, continue to sell large numbers of shares. This is creating an immense downward pressure on the stock price. If this pattern continues, it could contribute negatively to the stocks performance. However, I believe that’s a non-issue if the company becomes profitable. I hope that we are approaching the end of the insider selling. Crypto & SEC Action Additionally, due to recent events, Robinhood has pulled 3 of their crypto offerings. I believe this is another mixed risk. While they will take a revenue hit by delisting those tokens, they may end up gaining users if customers of Coinbase or Binance decide to take their business elsewhere. It could end up being beneficial to Robinhood, but there’s no way of knowing at this time. At the time of this writing there has been no report that I can find of Robinhood receiving a notice on the matters affecting Binance and Coinbase. Robinhood instead chose to remove the 3 affected securities voluntarily. I believe this is the responsible thing to do and well advised. By taking pre-emptive action they are protecting their business from getting entangled in the matter and remaining compliant with the SEC. This is a value the company has stated a number of times during their earnings calls. I believe their actions demonstrate that value and is representative of good governance from the company leadership. That said, the SEC could still take action against the company if they choose to do so. Therefore, it still carries some risk and must be considered. Macro & Last Thoughts So, here we are. It’s June 11th, 2023. Costs are significantly reduced and being controlled, notable Roadmap 2023 objectives are close, plans for new markets and offerings are approaching, and revenue continues to grow. The company is just a few pennies away on EPS from breaking even or potentially turning a profit. There is also significant distance from the drama surrounding GameStop, Robinhood, and WallStreetBets. The charts are showing higher lows being put in place. More positive momentum looks to be coming into the stock via the MACD. Additionally, the bulls appear to have taken control via the DMI on ~May 24th, 2023. I believe this is a case where a significant breakout could occur. It remains to be seen if it will, but I believe there is a potential trade here to the upside. It is not without downside risk though and that must be taken into consideration. Current thinking in the market is that we may be entering a new bull market based off of recent SP500 closing levels. However, the macroeconomic picture still remains unclear. Particularly in regards to inflation, interest rates, and consumer spending. If it is a new bull market, Robinhood may benefit from increased trading activity, but if the macroeconomic picture deteriorates it could degrade Robinhood’s business and affect the stock. Either way, I personally believe the stock is in an interesting position within the market. Trade carefully, trade wisely. ~Kryptonite As always, please consult the appropriate professionals for any financial decisions. I am not a professional. I am an amateur hobbyist. These are my own personal opinions that I’ve expressed regarding the market and the companies mentioned above. I am not responsible for any decision, trade, or investment you may make. You should assume that as of the publication date of any report, post, or communication referencing any publicly traded security or asset that Kryptonite Research (myself) may have a position in the security or asset and I might stand to realize significant gains if the price of the stock moves. Following publication of any report, post, or communication, I intend to continue transacting in the securities covered therein, and Kryptonite Research (myself) may be long, short, or even neutral at any time thereafter regardless of Kryptonite Research’s (myself) initial position. I reserve the right to alter my position at any time without notice. Images are sourced from the TradingView app, Adobe Stock photos, and Robinhood’s Investor Relations. I do not claim ownership. As an additional disclaimer, at the time of this writing I am a Robinhood customer and holding a position in Robinhood’s stock.
NASDAQ:HOODLong
by AthenaResearch
1