Discussions

Humacyte, Inc. stock forum

19 hours ago

candle trading: we in a inverted hammer after major rejection (delay) of resistance

wyckoff trading: currently at LPS fase (last point of support) after a test/spring fase. all the way down to 3,40 (i did buy more even with all the negative sentiment, and it played off) if it breaks to the upside(what it will in my opinion) it will break the 7,50 resistance (the sell off after approval) and will flirt with the SPAC price around 10-12$.. i will sell partially (30% of total shares) and hope it will drop so i can accumulate more.. because i still think this revolutionary graft will be adopted sooner then later.. they have so many partnerships and those partners have alot of patients. (dod/Fresenius) Q1 earnings. if we hit above 250k like estimate then we could be in a suprise to 25$ because the cagr in % will be higher and people will buy it like a growth company. if this really is alot higher then expected.. then i think this company could go 30-55$ end of 2025.

alot of negativity about healthcare sector at moment.. if that turns around and we are already pumping.. i believe it can go even higher then 55$

but my base case:
short term (60days); 8-12ish
medium term (60 days to a year): 12-25 if Q1 positive at the high end. if whole healthcare space flips around it could go 25-50ish.. and could be an specular asset. then 3digit stock

long:
bear; no earnings 6-12
neutral; with estimated earnings 12-25
bullish; earnings suprise 25-50
fomo; earnings suprise and good news other applications

and i do think it will be 3/4 .
im bias because 30% of portfolio in this stock.

my targetprices:
$12 (-30% shares)
$25 (-30% of shares left)(so have 50% left)
$50 (-30% of shares left)(so have 35% left)
$100(-30% of shares left)(so have 20% left)
$150(-30% of shares left)(so have 14% left)

this i hold for dear life and hope dividends are coming in the future.

i also hold Fresenius medical. and will buy if humacyte rises.

if they are planning to sell it all to a big company.. an acquisition.. then i will be happy already because that will be at least 12-25$ range. and then i will put those profits mostly in other chances

Nov 14

I smell something iffy. They claim on their website that that their products have been used on solders in Ukraine, I believe last year. How come they are not releasing the results? You get my point.

Oct 23

bullish till 2034 if get approved

believe this can be a 10-100bagger if you play your cards right. 3k of shares. 1k bag release if approved and gets overhyped. 1k bag for 30-50$ range and 1k to hold for dear life or there needs come a valuation that's made for over max what they can do. and not invest in new companies, Startups or as innovative products.

maybe never get chance if somebody bought then out.

but product and case:

atev, biotech accellular vessels. to replace bypass and grafts.
550.000 cases annually in western world.

avarage bypass/graft cost: 20-70k depending country and healthcare system.

price atev: 20-40k (price high but can be reduced after scale if needed)

current problems with Benchmark:
bypass: double surgery and not everybody is suitable for vein harvesting.
grafts/fistulas: chance on infection and rejection pretty high

implementation of atev: same as current so easy to learn for medical staff that is familiar with this

current production: 4k
after scale one facility:40k
after 13: 520k
maybe posible with partnership Fresenius medical, biggest supplier in equipment etc

*military usecase. benefits: quicker then old method. so helpful on frontline. less infection/rejection risk. less chance amputations. this will lead to military contracts and think steady income and reputation, partners with DOD

*kids. kids do grow and plastic grafts dont. atev do because own cells become host of Atev.
bypass maybe not best way to treat a kid

*older people and some niche in women population: not suitable for bypass because different reasons

*people with different kind of diseases: alot more infection/rejection risk then Atev

*all round: less infection/rejection risk, no need double surgery. thus reduced cost in re-visits etc.

multiple pipeline products in clinical trials for more use-case then only trauma. see a lot of potential. also some products i think sounds scifi but who knows. maybe biotech the new era when hard assets, AI and Energy settles down.

but be carefully still speculative biotech stock right now. high risk. high reward. but i believe in product and team

but current trends:
- healthcare more important these days
- healthcare eating old people reserves sow milking the cash cow generation
- insiders selling past 6 months (few millions) and bought a little, except Gordon Binder (ex ceo amgen)
- spac merger that got 200million collected by rajiv shukla (got more succes stories)
- Tuberville holding and selling stock at same time. he got free shares now???
- institutional getting more stake. some even got x5 position.

moat:
first to do, l'heureux not even clinical and closest i could find of competition. 2003-2004 it all started. so more then 20year experience and research by this team. hopefully financial management as good as product :)