IBB trade ideas
IBB failing 300 againIBB tested the 300 area again today and is failing so far, I took some profits on the open minutes with my long calls.
IBB testing Wedge breakout and prior resistance areasIBB had a huge move yesterday after a sort of the retest of the wedge breakout. Now its approaching prior resistance areas. I am cautiously long with options 2 + weeks out. The measured move is around 310 based on the size of the wedge.
IBBIBB breaking out slowly, its a hard trade with short term options due to the large spreads and daily movements. Would like to get it on a retest of the breakout, but with this market not sure that's going to happen
Biotech's 40% Bear Market is OverThere is one useful way to determine when a trend is over and that is using a 50% "speedline" of a move.
The decline from $400 in $IBB, the IShares Nasdaq Biotechnology Index Fund back in July 2015 and then tumbled 40% to $240 on February 9th, 2016 and later retested $240 on June 27, 2016.
The mid-point of that decline is $320 and a line drawn from the top at $400 down through the $320 level on June 27th gives you a line that is now down below $275 and that line has been violated to the upside, retested and is turning back up again and THIS TIME it is with President Trump pushing for faster "time to market" in exchange for lower drug prices. Will the deal go through and will it make a difference? Time will tell.
For now, the Yellen-Bubble-popping bear market has been dramatic since August 2015 as it tumbled a whopping 40%.
But there might be signs of life here in Biotech Bubble land, even with fears of price gouging still lingering over these stocks .
For now: Average in over the next 2-3 months and see if this story pans out.
Tim
12:31AM EST February 2, 2017 280.42 last $IBB. Other symbols for Biotech $FBT, $XBI, $BBH
Breakout or FakeoutBreaking out of the wedge pattern.
Confluences:
- Target set at major resistance $299
- MACD turning bullish
- multiple bottoms at about $265
- Major support at $277
IBB likely to repeat a rally IBB went through a small rally today and we do notice there is a similar pattern happened before in the green box. It's likely to revisit 282.5-286. Let's watch to see how'd IBB go tomorrow!!
Survey - What would you do in this scenario This is a chart that I sent to my members today.
It presents two potential trades on IBB:
1. Bullish (short term) setup - 270$ is the key zone as it presents a weekly support zone.
2. Bearish continuation (based on longer term analysis) - Continuation of the the waterfall that started on May 2015.
Waiting to here your thoughts.
Biotech (IBB) - trade of the yearIBB is at multi-year cross roads. Ideal for straddles / strangles. A dropping RSI points to a weekly downtrend.
Both trade ideas are plotted. From a fundamental perspective, I believe @realdonaldtrump is right, biotech is getting away with murder. I get one of my meds from overseas because it's 1/182 the cost. Yes, you read it right. It costs me $1 there and $182 here for 10 pills.
North America has one of the most affordable:
1. housing, 2. food, 3. cars, 4. Gas, 5. tech, 6. Financial Markets anywhere in the world. But what is charged for healthcare is OUTRAGEOUS. An open heart surgery done in India, China, Malaysia, Singapore, Russia costs $50,000 including business class airfare and 5 star accommodations ($20,000 is surgery cost) . In USA it is $250,000.
This is a topic that Dems and Republicans are aligned on, it's very important for the most powerful country in the world to have affordable health care and thereby provide capability for it's citizens to live a happy meaningful life.
Reducing healthcare costs should also increase profits for S&P by about 10% within the next 3 years as it's one of the major expense for any company.
IBB expects potential rallyTrump's speech sent IBB sector plummet as we can see in the green box area. Most of them might be auto programming sell-off. However, we saw it bounce back later in the afternoon. If IBB could climb above the uptrend line indicated, I see reversal for IBB sector. Plus, Trump's policy regard decreasing drug price harms IBB performance for the short term, but benefit the whole pharm for the long-haul.
Health Care down big after Trump press conferenceFound support @ 55-EMA, but negative sentiment has us Bearish
IBB targetsStill rangebound, and pending any big negative news on its components, IBB should be going up for days(?).
Downward retracedThe November upmove has been retraced now. The continuation of the sideward range from here opens the chance for some gain now.
