IBIT (BTC) target March 31stHere is my coinciding target for IBIT which I hold in my main investment account and 401k. I believe this will happen in March or April and my target for BTC is 143k with an IBIT price of 83.
We see a consolidation similar to the recent pump we have a few months ago. Deeply low stochastic RSI and a moderate BBWP. I think we see a 30-40% move soon.
My plan:
I am trading this setup by utilizing my recent COIN/CONL trade. I also plan to dump all my IBIT around these levels since I already own Bitcoin and have a mara trade on deck.
IBIT trade ideas
Opening (IRA): IBIT March 21st 49 Covered Call... for a 47.32 debit.
Comments: Adding to my positions at strikes/break evens better than what I currently have on, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 47.32
Max Profit: 1.68
ROC at Max: 3.55%
50% Max: .84
ROC at 50% Max: 1.78%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals, assuming I can get in at strikes/break evens better than what I currently have on, and/or roll out the short call should my take profit not be hit.
Opening (IRA): IBIT March 21st 52 Covered Call... for a 49.83 debit.
Comments: Back into IBIT, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 49.83/share
Max Profit: 2.17
ROC at Max: 4.35%
50% Max: 1.09
ROC at 50% Max: 2.18%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals, assuming I can get in at strikes better than what I currently have on, and/or roll out the short call if my take profit is not hit.
Opening (IRA): IBIT March 21st 48 Covered Call... for a 46.14 debit.
Comments: Adding to my current position at strikes better than what I have on, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with built-in short call defense.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 46.14
Max Profit: 1.86
ROC at Max: 4.03%
50% Max: .93
ROC at 50% Max: 2.02%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals assuming I can get in at strikes better than what I currently have on, and/or roll out short call if my TP is not hit.
Opening (IRA): IBIT March 21st 50 Covered Call... for a 47.78 debit.
Comments: High IVR/IV. Selling the -75 call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 47.78
Max Profit: 1.22
ROC at Max: 2.55%
50% Max: .61
ROC at 50% Max: 1.28%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals (assuming I can get in at a break even better than what I currently have on), and/or roll out the short call in the event take profit is not hit.
IBIT - Key Trading Analysis & Gamma - Hot list on RadarTechnical Overview
* Current Price: $59.20
* Key Resistance Levels:
* $60.50: Intermediate resistance. A breakout could signal bullish continuation.
* $61.00 - $63.00: Gamma resistance, indicating strong call option interest.
* Key Support Levels:
* $57.00: Immediate support; maintaining this level is critical for upward momentum.
* $55.00: Critical breakdown level; a loss here may lead to increased bearish momentum.
Price Action Insights
* Recent upward movement indicates a breakout of consolidation from $55.00 support.
* Price is currently trading near $59.00 with bullish bias but needs to sustain above $60.50 for further momentum.
* Higher lows and a wedge breakout signal potential for a run toward $63.00 in the coming sessions.
Gamma Exposure (GEX) Analysis
* Call Walls:
* $60.50: 2nd call wall with 72.55% exposure.
* $63.00: Gamma resistance and potential top for the short term.
* Put Walls:
* $54.50 - $51.00: Strong gamma support area; prices are unlikely to break this range without high volume.
Trading Plan
1. Bullish Scenario:
* Entry: Above $60.50
* Target: $63.00
* Stop-Loss: Below $57.00
2. Bearish Scenario:
* Entry: Below $57.00
* Target: $54.50
* Stop-Loss: Above $60.00
Options Trading Suggestions
* Bullish Strategy:
* Strike Price: $60 Calls (March Expiry)
* Premium Target: $63.00 Gamma Resistance
* Consideration: Monitor volume; ensure price closes above $60.
* Bearish Strategy:
* Strike Price: $55 Puts (March Expiry)
* Premium Target: $54.00 Put Support
* Consideration: Enter only on volume breakdown below $57.
Thoughts on Direction
* Bullish Sentiment dominates, especially above $60, supported by strong call walls.
* A pullback to $57 or lower might create opportunities for bears in the short term.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, particularly during the premarket or intraday sessions. Adjust your trading strategy accordingly. For questions or updates, feel free to reach out directly.
Opening (IRA): IBIT February 28th 49.5 Covered Call... for a 47.52 debit.
Comments: High IV/IVR. Back into IBIT on a little bit of weakness here, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. The March monthly is still a bit long in duration for my tastes, so going with a weekly.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 47.52/share
Max Profit: 1.98
ROC at Max: 4.17%
50% Max: .99
ROC at 50% Max: 2.09%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out short call on take profit test, add at intervals, assuming I can get in at break evens better than what I currently have on.
Opening (IRA): IBIT February 21st 47 Covered Call... for a 44.52 debit.
Comments: Adding to my position at strikes/break evens better than what I currently have on, selling the -75 delta strike against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Break Even/Buying Power Effect: 44.52/share
Max Profit: 2.48
ROC at Max: 5.57%
50% Max: 1.24
ROC at 50% Max: 2.79%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out short call on take profit point test.
Opening (IRA): IBIT February 21st 50 Covered Call... for a 47.07 debit.
Comments: High IVR/IV (88.4/68.6) + weakness post-FOMC. Going out to February, as there are only 30 DTE left in January, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Looking at this as a "starter" position, so will look to add at intervals, assuming I can get in at strikes/break evens better than what I currently have on.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 47.07/share
Max Profit: 2.93
ROC at Max: 6.22%
50% Max: 1.47
ROC at 50% Max: 3.11%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out short call on take profit point test.
Bitcoin Exposure Through the IBIT Basket Fund Why It’s Right to Be Exposed and Invested in Bitcoin and How to Do It Subtly with the IBIT ETF NASDAQ:IBIT
In recent years, Bitcoin has gone from being a niche digital asset to a widely discussed financial instrument.
As it becomes more mainstream, Bitcoin offers a unique opportunity for those looking to get involved in the digital economy, decentralized finance, and potential long-term wealth generation.
But the question remains: *How can you gain exposure to Bitcoin without jumping straight into the volatile nature of investing directly in it?*
For many investors, traditional assets like stocks, bonds, and ETFs offer security and familiarity. But the growing appeal of Bitcoin—due to its potential for high returns and its distinctive qualities—has made it impossible to ignore. A smart yet subtle way to get involved in Bitcoin is by investing in diversified funds like the **IBIT ETF**.
### Why Invest in Bitcoin?
#### 1. **Diversification and Protection Against Inflation**
Bitcoin has shown itself to be a valuable asset in an investment portfolio, particularly during times of economic uncertainty.
Unlike fiat currencies, which can be devalued by inflation or central bank policies, Bitcoin has a finite supply.
There will only ever be 21 million Bitcoins, making it a deflationary asset.
As a result, it’s increasingly viewed as a hedge against inflation, similar to gold.
In times of unpredictable inflation, Bitcoin offers a potential safeguard, much like precious metals have historically done during economic instability.
#### 2. **Potential for Significant Upside**
Bitcoin has the potential for incredible returns, especially over the long run.
Although its volatility is well-known, those who have held onto Bitcoin for several years have seen its value grow substantially.
It’s not just a speculative asset—it's also a digital store of wealth, with new applications emerging in areas such as remittances, smart contracts, and decentralized finance.
For investors who can handle short-term fluctuations, Bitcoin’s long-term potential is promising. As Bitcoin continues to grow in the cryptocurrency ecosystem and gains more legitimacy, its value could continue to rise.
#### 3. **Blockchain Technology and Decentralization**
At its core, Bitcoin represents a revolutionary shift in how we think about and interact with money.
The blockchain technology behind Bitcoin enables secure, transparent transactions without the need for intermediaries like banks or governments.
This decentralization aligns with the growing trends of financial autonomy and privacy, resonating with those who value freedom and control over their financial futures.
Bitcoin’s decentralized nature means it operates independently of any central authority,
which is becoming increasingly important in today’s rapidly changing global financial environment.
### The IBIT ETF: A Subtle Path to Bitcoin Exposure
For investors who want to gain exposure to Bitcoin without directly buying and managing the cryptocurrency, the **IBIT ETF** offers an ideal solution.
This managed fund provides exposure to Bitcoin while diversifying the risk across a mix of related assets.
Here’s why it’s an excellent way to gain Bitcoin exposure in a subtle, safe manner:
#### 1. **Diversification Across Multiple Bitcoin-Related Assets**
Instead of investing in Bitcoin alone, the IBIT Basket Fund allows you to diversify across a range of assets related to the Bitcoin ecosystem.
This might include investments in Bitcoin mining companies, blockchain tech firms, and businesses with significant Bitcoin holdings.
By investing in a basket like this, you reduce the risk associated with the volatility of a single asset, while giving your portfolio broader exposure to the overall growth of the cryptocurrency market.
#### 2. **Professional Management**
A key benefit of the IBIT Basket Fund is the expertise of its professional managers.
Bitcoin, while incredibly promising, can be complex and volatile.
For many investors, managing Bitcoin directly—such as dealing with wallets, private keys, and exchanges—can feel overwhelming.
The IBIT ETF simplifies this by allowing a team of experts to handle the management, ensuring that investors can access Bitcoin and related assets without needing technical knowledge.
#### 3. **Long-Term Growth Potential**
The IBIT ETF is not aimed at short-term speculation; rather, it’s designed to capture Bitcoin’s long-term growth potential and the wider cryptocurrency market.
By investing in Bitcoin-related assets, you’re positioning yourself for long-term gains as Bitcoin matures and further integrates into the global financial system.
The diversified nature of the fund means it remains resilient even in the face of Bitcoin’s short-term volatility.
#### 4. **Subtle Yet Significant Exposure**
Investing in the IBIT ETF gives you Bitcoin exposure in a more subtle way,
without needing to directly purchase or hold the cryptocurrency.
For those who may be cautious about diving into the speculative world of Bitcoin,
this approach provides a bridge to exposure while mitigating risk.
Additionally, Bitcoin’s price movements are still relatively isolated from traditional financial markets, so the IBIT Basket Fund can offer a way to add growth from non-correlated assets to your portfolio.
### How to Invest in the IBIT ETF
1. **Understand Your Risk Tolerance**: Like any investment, it’s important to assess how much risk you’re willing to take.
Bitcoin and related assets are volatile, and their value can fluctuate dramatically in a short time.
Be sure your investment in the IBIT ETF aligns with your broader financial goals and your personal risk profile.
2. **Consult with a Financial Advisor**:
Before making any investment decisions,
it’s always wise to consult with a financial advisor who can help tailor a strategy to your needs. An advisor can help you determine how much Bitcoin exposure is appropriate for your portfolio and ensure that the IBIT ETF fits into your overall financial plan.
3. **Choose the Right Fund**:
Many funds provide exposure to Bitcoin and other crypto assets.
It’s important to research different options, taking into account their risk levels, fees,
and the underlying assets in their portfolios.
This will help you select the IBIT Basket ETF best fits your needs.
4. **Start with a Modest Investment**:
If you’re new to Bitcoin, consider starting with a small investment.
This will allow you to become familiar with the asset class and evaluate how it fits into your portfolio before committing more substantial amounts.
5. **Monitor Performance Regularly**:
While Bitcoin is often viewed as a long-term investment, it’s still crucial to monitor your investment in the IBIT ETF regularly.
Staying informed about the performance of the underlying assets and broader market trends will help you make smart decisions about your investment’s future.
### Conclusion
Bitcoin’s transformative potential as a decentralized asset makes it a compelling option for investors.
However, its inherent volatility may make direct investment intimidating, especially for those unfamiliar with the digital asset world.
The IBIT ETF offers a smart way to gain exposure to Bitcoin without directly managing it yourself.
With professional management, diversification, and the potential for long-term growth, this fund provides a more accessible path for investors looking to tap into Bitcoin’s potential while minimizing risk.
By incorporating Bitcoin exposure through a carefully selected fund, investors can strike a balance between managing risk, achieving long-term growth, and engaging with the future of finance in a smart, controlled way.
IBITUSDT Analysis: Red Box Breakout PotentialIn IBITUSDT, the red box signifies a critical resistance zone. If price breaks and retests this level, it may present a long entry opportunity . That said, my overall expectation is for the correction to deepen further before significant upward movement.
Key Points:
Red Box Resistance: Monitor for a breakout and retest to confirm a potential long setup.
Deeper Correction Likely: Current market conditions suggest the correction could continue before recovery.
Confirmation Indicators: I will utilize CDV, liquidity heatmaps, volume profiles, volume footprints, and upward market structure breaks in lower time frames to validate entries.
Learn With Me: If you want to understand how to leverage CDV, liquidity heatmaps, volume profiles, and volume footprints for accurate market analysis, feel free to DM me.
Reminder: Always manage your risk and look for confirmation before taking any trades.
If this analysis helps you, please don’t forget to boost and comment. Your support inspires me to share more valuable insights!
If you think this analysis helps you, please don't forget to boost and comment on this. These motivate me to share more insights with you!
I keep my charts clean and simple because I believe clarity leads to better decisions.
My approach is built on years of experience and a solid track record. I don’t claim to know it all, but I’m confident in my ability to spot high-probability setups.
If you would like to learn how to use the heatmap, cumulative volume delta and volume footprint techniques that I use below to determine very accurate demand regions, you can send me a private message. I help anyone who wants it completely free of charge.
My Previous Analysis
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I stopped adding to the list because it's kinda tiring to add 5-10 charts in every move but you can check my profile and see that it goes on..
IBIT | Be PatientThe market is declining rapidly, and Bitcoin remains highly volatile, making it dangerous to take risks in the current environment. I have marked the HTF (High Time Frame) demand zones as critical areas to monitor.
Trades should be based on the reactions observed in these demand zones on lower timeframes. This approach helps minimize risk while identifying potential entry points with stronger confirmation.
I keep my charts clean and simple because I believe clarity leads to better decisions.
My approach is built on years of experience and a solid track record. I don’t claim to know it all, but I’m confident in my ability to spot high-probability setups.
My Previous Analysis
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🔵 XRPUSDT.P: Entry Zones
🔗 LINKUSDT.P: Follow The River
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🌟 PENDLEUSDT.P: Where Opportunity Meets Precision
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Long $IBIT, but be patientThis is a weekly chart of NASDAQ:IBIT , which allows convenient exposure to BTC via traditional brokerages. Since the Trump election euphoria has waned a bit, we are now seeing a retracement, which, based on the Fibonacci framework I use will offer an excellent long entry around the $45 level, should it get there. That would be just above the 50% Fib retracement level and would fill a gap (indicated by the green rectangle). With many catalysts/macro factors at play it is my opinion that exposure to BTC would be prudent for every investor, and this price level would be a gift if it gets there. Merry Christmas.
IBIT Bitcoin Trust ETF Technical Analysis Trade This chart highlights a parabolic uptrend in IBIT, with price making a significant move from consolidation to new highs. The chart includes pivot levels (S1, R1, R2), dark pool levels, moving averages (8 EMA and 21 EMA), and volume, all of which help in understanding the current price action and predicting potential moves.
Key Observations:
1. Trend Structure:
The chart shows a strong uptrend supported by the 8 EMA and 21 EMA.
A breakout above the 61.99 resistance (R1) occurred recently, but price has since pulled back slightly, consolidating near 56.10, which aligns with a dark pool level.
2. Support and Resistance:
Resistance Levels:
61.99 (R1): The key breakout level, which price is currently retesting as resistance.
68.77 (R2): The next significant resistance and a long-term target for bulls.
Support Levels:
56.10: A dark pool level and immediate support zone.
53.00: Key short-term support near the 21 EMA.
47.30 (S1): A deeper support level in case of a larger pullback.
3. Volume Analysis:
A high volume breakout occurred recently, suggesting strong interest from institutions or retail traders.
However, recent volume bars are slightly lower, indicating that the bullish momentum is consolidating. This could lead to either a continuation higher or a pullback to support.
4. Moving Averages:
The 8 EMA is currently acting as immediate dynamic support, while the 21 EMA (~53.00) provides a secondary layer of support.
As long as the price remains above these moving averages, the uptrend remains intact.
Trade Setup:
Scenario 1: Bullish Continuation
Trigger: A breakout above 61.99 (R1) on high volume would confirm bullish continuation.
Profit Targets:
68.77 (R2): The next major resistance level.
70-75: A potential extension zone in a strong parabolic move.
Stop-Loss: Below 56.10, as a break below this level would signal a loss of bullish momentum.
Scenario 2: Pullback to Support
Trigger: If price fails to break above 61.99 and pulls back, look for buying opportunities near:
56.10 (dark pool level): Immediate support.
53.00 (21 EMA): A stronger support level for a bounce.
Profit Targets:
61.99: Retest of the breakout level.
68.77 (R2): Higher target if the trend resumes.
Stop-Loss: Below 52, as this would indicate a breakdown below the key EMAs.
Scenario 3: Bearish Breakdown
Trigger: A strong close below 53.00 with high volume would signal bearish momentum.
Profit Targets:
47.30 (S1): First major pivot support.
41.00-43.00: A retest of previous consolidation levels.
Stop-Loss: Above 56.10, as a reclaim of this level would invalidate the bearish thesis.
Final Thoughts:
Short-Term Outlook: Consolidation near 56.10 suggests the potential for either a breakout above 61.99 or a pullback to key support zones.
Long-Term Outlook: The parabolic nature of the trend suggests strong bullish sentiment, with deeper pullbacks offering opportunities to re-enter the trend.
Watch volume closely to confirm either a breakout or a breakdown, as institutional activity (dark pool levels) will likely play a significant role.
Opening (IRA): IBIT Jan 17th 50 Covered Call... for a 47.76 debit.
Comments: High IV at 65.3%. Selling the -75 call against stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. This isn't the best entry (an understatement), but am looking at it as a starter position which I will add to, assuming I can get in at strikes/break evens better than what I currently have on.
Previously, I was working BITO due to its monthly dividend, but it suffers from "rollover risk" and BITO IV is higher on the put side than on the call, making selling puts more productive in that instrument, kind of defeating the reason why you might want to be in that instrument -- the dividends, for which you have to be in stock.
IBIT IV is higher on the call side than BITO, making covered calls more productive from a max profit standpoint. (The max of the Jan 17th 50 short put, 24 delta, is 1.77 here versus 2.24 for the monied covered call). Alas, the trade-off is ... no dividends.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 47.76/share
Max Profit: 2.24
ROC at Max: 4.70%
50% Max: 1.12
ROC at 50% Max: 2.35%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max; roll the short call out on break of my take profit (which is (50.00 - 47.76)/2 + 47.76 or 48.88.
Opening (IRA): IBIT January 17th 48 Covered Call... for a 46.16 debit.
Comments: Adding to my IBIT position at a strike/break even better than what I currently have on, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put to take advantage of call side IV skew and to have the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 46.16/share
Max Profit: 1.84
ROC at Max: 3.99%
50% Max: .92
ROC at 50% Max: 1.99%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max/roll out short call on break even or take profit test.
Orange Breaks, We Fly. Blue Falls, We Dive. The chart highlights two critical regions, each playing a pivotal role in determining the next trend direction for IBIT Bitcoin shares:
Orange Box - Key Resistance Zone
The orange box represents a crucial resistance area. For the rally to sustain momentum and push higher, this region must be decisively broken and secured. A close above this level, coupled with strong volume, would indicate the bulls are in control, signaling a potential continuation of the upward trend.
Blue Box - Key Support Zone
The blue box acts as a significant support level. Should the price fall below this zone, it would suggest weakness in the market. A confirmed breakdown, followed by a retest of the orange box from below, provides an opportunity to take a short position, as this would signal the onset of a downtrend.
Conclusion:
These zones are pivotal for the current market structure. Traders should closely monitor price action around these levels to identify whether the market leans towards bullish continuation or bearish reversal.
IBIT | This is Where Real Trader's are LookingThere's no need to complicate things. You are watching where real traders watch.
I see the green box and the red box as the selling place.
When the price reaches those areas, I recommend you to follow the volume side. If these regions are to be broken and passed, the volume side will give signals of this.
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My Record Speaks for Itself
DOGEUSDT.P | 4 Reward for 1 Risk much more if you hold it.
RENDERUSDT.P | HTF Accuracy
ETHUSDT.P | Accurate Buyer Zone Identification | High Risk Reward if you hold it.
BNBUSDT.P | Accurate Buyer Zone Identification | High Risk Reward if you hold it.
Bitcoin Dominance | Great Characteristic Detection and Accurate Analysis
IBIT breakout first day of options tradingIBIT is breaking out alongside BTC (obviously) this will be my new way of trading BTC, I have been waiting for this for years. If you look at my BTC chart this is the same idea.
My plan:
Bought shares of IBIT at open, will sell covered calls around 100k BTC
Long call spreads Jan 2025 60/65$