IEF (Consolidating) 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETFThe US10Y looks to be gaining towards a bullish outlook creating this ETF to continue to increase its pattern. Waiting for breakout!
IEF trade ideas
US Treasuries vs US Equities - Risk OnAfter peaking in late December 2018, the price ratio between 7-10 year US Treasuries (IEF as proxy)(numerator) and US Stocks (SPY as Proxy)(denominator) has fallen since then. This is backed up by the fact that the US Treasuries/US Stock ratio fell below its 10 day EMA (Green) and failed to move higher. We believe that this indicates that “Risk-On” sentiment is back in the financial markets, in the interim, as investors flock out of safe havens and into risky assets such as equities. It must be noted however that the overall macroeconomic backdrop is still quite challenging, as geopolitical risk in various regions continues, and global economic indicators trend downward.
Nonetheless, we believe there are some short-term opportunities in equities on a sectoral basis: Air Services, Recreational Vehicles, Southeast Regional &Pacific-focused banks, and Auto Part manufacturers & Wholesalers present opportunities for investors in the near term.
IEF found support!IEF has bounced off of its double top created during the recession. This has created a hard support.
Not only that it has bounced off of it before in a similar fashion between 2013 and 2014.
Volume is dramatically increasing at this level, the moving averages are flattening out.
All of these are bullish signals.
* This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.
US Treasuries vs US Stocks - Price Ratio #Stocks #Bonds #MarketsAfter the formation of a solid "Inverse Head and Shoulders", the price ratio
price ratio between US Treasuries (IEF as proxy)(numerator) and US Stocks (SPY as Proxy)(denominator) took off past the neckline of 0.39 in early December. A Golden Cross between the 50/200 Day EMA further supports the trend.
This indicates that money is flowing into US treasuries, as a safe haven, as equities and other risk assets move further to the downside.
Long 10-Year Treasury expressed through iShares 7-10 Year ETF The trade is long $IEF the iShares 7-10 Year Bond ETF (daily vol is only 0.21%) as I expect 10-year rates to fall slightly over the next 2-6 weeks with the reverse head and shoulder pattern in the weekly 10-year notes and traditional late summer/September rise in Treasuries from pension manager as people return to the office which should accelerate sooner than later this year as some additional buying will be timed before the pension tax benefits for bonds expire on September 15. Coincidentally this year there are also a record number of short speculative positions outstanding in the futures market which have made money YTD on rising rates and may take profits increasing the acceleration in the rise in 10-year Treasuries.
IEF - Long US Treasuries 7-10 yearsReally not sure about this count at all with all the talking heads going on about rising yields and interest rates and the general gloom surrounding bonds but with commercials very long and speculators very short on the COT index you never know in the markets. If I am right I often call the bottom to early so I wouldn't be surprised to see another leg down before any significant rise.
