Intel Corporation - Buy the Raid, Ride the WaveSemiconductors were supposed to be the "21st century oil," but they aren't. Whoever believed that was really not rational. Because oil is for heating stuff, making plastic, and fueling vehicles, while computers are just computers are just computers are just computers.
Intel has not been bullish, only trading within a $6 range since October. A lot of other tech/Nasdaq stuff has been a lot more interesting to trade, but I personally like these companies that are in the low double digits and usually don't do insane things in one day, because the premium and spread for the options market is usually much more sane, and risk management is really the most important thing.
Plus, once these kinds of equities go, they tend to surprise well and are a lot better than gambling on if you can catch the latest 10% day on Tesla (you won't. Mastodon's socialists told you ELON MUSK BAD).
Anyways, I am expecting that markets at large will bear trap in and around the beginning of February and FOMC. The next FOMC is 6 weeks away in the third week of March, which gives a lot of time to head fake and take traders in the direction they like seeing the least right now (up).
Thus, based on Intel's price action post-earnings after missing EPS estimates by 50% and yet only dumping $1.50, that the market makers' intention is to gun the October low.
I believe you can buy $23.50-$25 in anticipation of a marketwide pump that will ultimately prove to be an exit pump designed to unload bags, fill banks' "big short" strategy, and totally destroy the existing short sellers in the market, heading into roughly May and July of this year.
Intel's long term price action is prime for this, as we have a large volume gap spanning 7 years in the $42 to $37 range, most evident on the monthly.
You may not see another run below the $24.87 low, since it was taken months ago.
But since Intel has yet to bounce, but has also proven to not actually be very bearish, a raid below the lows seems more likely than not.
The problem from a risk perspective is that a raid may not really be a raid. Intel can just be on its way to $0, but at the same time, the company really is the biggest processor manufacture for all the computers normal people use, and is "only" market capped at present at $116 billion.
Rival Taiwan Semiconductor TSM has a similar breadth pattern, but never took a previous low, and has bounced vigorously into a volume gap of its own from 2021.
Right now, the world is not okay. The pandemic situation in China with Wuhan Pneumonia is countless times more dire than mainstream media and social media are leading you to believe. It's really serious, as many individuals, corporations, and governments are tightly wed to China.
But unfortunately, many of those weddings weren't with "China" but the heinous and unforgivable "Chinese Communist Party."
The situation in this world can change overnight and all long trades have significant risk of total liquidation, no matter the appearance.
Make sure you take good care of yourselves and your families. Remember, money is a thing that you can't take with you.
