INTC trade ideas
Intel just popped through a resistance lineThere's some chatter in both the US and Europe about subsidizing chip manufacturing to help deal with the semiconductor shortage. That has sent chip stocks surging today, including Intel. I like Intel a lot, because it's quite reasonably valued for a chip company and has lots of plans for expanding its manufacturing capacity, which means it's poised to be a big beneficiary from any subsidies. Here are some vital statistics:
forward p/e: 12
forward p/s: 3
p/fcf: 12
forward div yield: 2.6%
patents per year per B$ market cap: 14
upside to median 4-year valuation: 8%
upside to average analyst price target: 20%
average S&P Global fundamentals rating: 70/100
average analyst score: 8/10
esg score: above average
put-call ratio: 0.9
Honestly, I think this is a long-term buy-and-hold. I had hoped for a dip to $52.20, but it looks like we may not get that low. Look for a close above resistance as confirmation of a breakout here. If we pull back and close below the resistance line, that's a signal that we may continue down to $52.20 after all.
INTC breaking outIntel corp. has been trending down since the latest earnings release (which was mostly positive). Intel stock likes to do this after just about every earnings release.
The company's balance sheet is rock solid and the stock always seems to recover after these massive dips. We have at least 5 dollars of upside on a long trade. Even if it dips further, it's a great long-term hold.
Traditional|INTC|Long and shortLong and short INTC
Activation of the transaction only when the blue zone is fixed/broken.
The author recommends the use of anchoring fixed the blue zone, this variation is less risky.
If there is increased volatility in the market and the price is held for more than 2-3 minutes behind the activation zone after the breakdown, then the activation of the idea occurs at the prices behind the activation zone.
Working out the support and resistance levels of the consolidation zone.
* Possible closing of a trade before reaching the take/stop zone. The author can close the deal for subjective reasons, this does not completely cancel the idea and is not a call to the same action, you can continue working out the idea according to your data, but without the support of the author.
+ ! - zone highlighted by the ellipse is a zone of increased resistance, in this area there is a possible reversal for a correction, please take this factor into account in this transaction.
The "forecast" tool is used for more noticeable display of % (for the place of the usual % scale) of the price change, I do not put the date and time of the transaction, only %.
The breakdown of the upper blue zone - long.
Breakdown of the lower blue zone - short.
Working out the stop when the price returns to the level after activation + fixing in the red zone.
Blue zones - activation zones.
Green zone - take zone.
Red zone - stop zone.
Orange arrows indicate the direction of the take.
Red arrows indicate the direction of the stop.
Priority - The value of the priority parameter implies the author's subjective opinion about the more likely activation zone on this idea, this does not mean that this idea will be 80% activated by this parameter, the purpose of the parameter is to provide for the risk of the inverse of the zone parameter.
Example: "Priority Long: So the author inclines more in the direction of the activation zone open long trades, in this case, when reaching the activation zone in short you should be very careful, because this area may be highly likely to be punched about the breakdown/do not get to take/activate transaction from go to stop."
Please consider this parameter if you use my ideas.
SUM PNL: This parameter displays the total % of all closed ideas of the "new" format (according to the author) for this sector at the time of publication of the idea. The calculation is very "clumsy" just the sum of the profits of all the ideas, based on this indicator, you can more accurately assess the risks when working with my ideas of this sector. I present you the construction of the idea, you can use it yourself as you like based on your subjective view and risks, the calculation of the PNL indicator is carried out only on transactions that the author closed on TV in manual mode or by take.
P.S Please use RM (risk management) and MM (money management) if you decide to use my ideas, there will always be unprofitable ideas, this will definitely happen, the goal of the system is that there will be more profitable ideas at a distance.
INTC LONG SHOT 2 ENTRY POINTS Exhaustion of the downtrend in the fibo zone 50 - 61.80 which is our f irst entry point . Price resistance zone of March 2020. We have a GAP of April 23 that the price will seek to fill ////
ENTRY POINT 2: At the fibo zone 78.60-85, with a short stop, entry with trend line / //
PRICE TAGET $ 70- $ 76 (Needham / DZ Bank / Wells Fargo / Roth Capital)
BIGGETSS BUYERS
Mark Hillman - Hillman Fund ADD 10%
Robert Olstein - Olstein Capital Management aDD 24%
Important note: ⚠️ All trades have risks that the investor must consider before investing. VivirdelTrading.club makes a disclaimer of any operation that may generate losses. All information transmitted by the channel, the page and the alert system is shared in good faith. There is no guarantee of 100% of the executed operations, as these are based on statistical models and assumptions regarding the past behavior of the price of a share, but they do not guarantee the same future behavior. NASDAQ:INTC
LONG INTC DAILY/WEEKLYINTC is going sideways since 2018.
INTC reaching a nice support zone
With the recent downturn in tech stocks, INTC may poise for a short term rebound.
Things to take note for downside risk:
1) This support zone is in the middle of the bigger sideway zone. so chances of winning 50:50. but it's a good time to collect some should there be a short term rebound and perhaps breaking new high due to increased demand in the global recovery. Otherwise, this trade could become a long term trade
2) May anormaly: Sell in May and go away
EP: now ($57.19) or within support zone.
TP: $64.23 or $68.49
No stop loss: enter again when prices hit around $43.72 and ride the sideways market.
Silver Lining?!Its not all doom and gloom. We got that rejection i was looking for but because we are going against the general trend i will put a small buy order just above the today's high. The volume today was also very good. We might close that gap??? . . . .
Entry: 57.10
SL: 55.24
TP: 62.29
R: 2.79
I will be quick to close this trade if i see a slow down or even signs of reversal...its against the trend.
How Earnings Season Affects OptionsAs most of you are aware, it is earnings season. So today we’re going to talk about how earnings season can impact options trading, because, as you know, I trade options.
Now, just a brief intro. Earnings season happens quarterly, meaning four times a year, and this is when corporations reveal their financial results for the previous quarter.
Now, the results of a company’s earnings report can have a major impact on the stock price, and options will often price in the expectations for a big post-earnings move before the event.
This is why it is likely that options premium are more expensive during this time.
Implied Volatility
One thing to know about this and how it can impact your trading is implied volatility. See, there several things that make up an options price, including the market’s expectation for future volatility, and that is called implied volatility.
So why is this important? Well, as the buyer of an option, higher implied volatility means that you are paying more for your contract.
So if you buy an option before earnings and hold through earnings, you put yourself at risk for a so-called volatility crash.
Now, part of the reason implied volatility goes up so much ahead of earnings is because traders don’t know which way the stock is going to go or by how much.
I mean, remember Netflix at the beginning of March? Who would have known that Netflix would soar 17%?
But you see, once a company reports earnings, there is no more uncertainty, and this is when implied volatility drops, and in some cases, so does the options price.
So if you bought an expensive option, there’s a chance that you have to sell it to close at a lower price even if a stock moves in the direction you want it to.
And let me show you a very, very specific example of a volatility crash and why it is so important that you understand the concept of volatility and how it can impact your options trading.
So I want to show you right here we see Seagate. Seagate reported earnings last week. And so here is the pre-earnings options data.
The day before Seagate, STX, was trading at $61.45, and an At-The-Money call with a 61.50 strike price was going for the last traded price of $1.74, and the implied volatility was 128%.
On the other hand, the put was going for $1.82 and the implied volatility was also 128%.
Now, this was the day before earnings. Now let’s talk of what happened the day after earnings.
So again, here Seagate was trading at $61.45 before earnings, but then the next day, Seagate dropped to $59.33. So it fell dramatically and therefore, and the price of the 61.50 call is only a penny.
So it’s not surprising that the call is not worth anything, but here’s the key. Even though the stock fell quite substantially, the put only went from $1.82 to $2.51 so it went up because puts go up as the stock goes down.
So this means that the put only went up to $0.70, $0.69 to be exact. You see this is how the volatility crash affects the option price, because even though the put is worth more now, and is now in the money, but it also lost a lot of value due to the decline in implied volatility.
See, the previous day, it was 128%, this implied volatility, and the day after only 96%. So you have to factor this in when trading options into earnings.
How Is Implied Volatility Measured?
So let’s talk about this implied volatility thing and how is this measured, right? You know me, I’m all about practical stuff, so I don’t want to bore you with the math behind it and I don’t have to.
The good news is that there are plenty of places online that calculate the implied volatility for you, and I want to show you exactly how you can see if the implied volatility, is high, low, or average. Here is the easiest way to do it.
You compare the implied volatility to the stock’s historical volatility for exactly the same time frame. The implied volatility measures the market expectation for future price action.
Now, the historical volatility measures the volatility for a stock that already occurred over a specific time frame. All you have to do to see if the implied volatility is high, low, or average compare it to the historical volatility.
We can use the implied volatility of AAPL Apple’s Q1 earnings season. Apple was trading at 142. For an at-the-money call, expiring in four days, the implied volatility was 71%, and for the put was 70%.
The historical volatility of Apple. And this is something that you’re charting software can show you, it makes sense to look at it in 10, 20, 30, 40 days increments. So if we were to look at the past 10 days, the historical volatility was 37%.
But the call was trading at 71%. So what does it tell us? It tells us that the premium on this call, and also on the put, was running more expensive than usual. So now we can see, how this is affected by earnings.
Now, let’s take a look at the implied volatility of an at-the-money Apple call from the same time that expired later out at, let’s say March 19th.
So for calls expiring March 19th, you see right now the implied volatility is much, much, much lower at 43% for the call, and 43% as well for the put.
The historical volatility over the past 60 days was 40.69%. Now compare this to the 43% and we see that it is pretty much in line here.
So this means that the premium that was on these calls and puts on options that had 53 days until expiration was pretty much average.
Why You Shouldn’t Sell Options Into Earnings
Options traders are always talking about implied volatility and historical volatility, and now you know what it is. Now I want to tell you why I don’t sell options into earnings.
I mean, even though the stock moves in the direction that you want to, your option premium is getting sucked out of there because of the volatility crash.
You see, and this where, as an option seller, you might say, “don’t I want the premium to be as high as possible?” and yes, of course, you do.
But let me make you very clear why I don’t sell options into earnings.
If you have been following me for a while, you know that I love trading the Wheel, and as part of this strategy, we are selling options.
Well you see, earnings plays are hit-and-miss. Sure, everybody can get lucky and most people who start trading expect their account to explode from one or two big trades.
This is where we have some stocks that are jumping just dramatically. Looking at Intel, INTC over the last three earnings.
Huge gap down right when we had earnings, then there was another earnings play, and Intel really crashed down hard again.
Then also here during the last earnings season, initially, Intel went up but then started crashing down.
You see, some people like these earnings plays because they believe the hype that they can make a lot of money with very little work involved, but see, trading just doesn’t work this way because, in reality, the key to becoming successful in trading is consistency and growing your account systematically.
That’s what I mean when I talk about generating SRC profits, right? SRC is an acronym that stands for Systematic because I like to trade what I see and not what I think.
This is why I use indicators and have a trading strategy that tells me when to trade, what to trade, when to enter and when to exit. The R stands for repeatable and by trading my plan, I’m able to find repeatable profit-making opportunities. The C in SRC profit stands for consistency.
You see, I’d rather make slightly less money more often than biting off all my nails waiting for a big winner. As you know, part of my systematic approach to trading is to use The Wheel Strategy and the PowerX strategy.
Now, especially with The Wheel strategy that, where I’m trading right now with you here, the idea is to get paid while you wait to buy the stock, and because I’m collecting premiums on the puts that I sell, I’m looking for stocks with higher volatility, right?
This means making more money, and as a rule of thumb, I look for stocks with an IV, implied volatility, of at least 40%. The Wheel strategy can relatively safely produce profits, but I don’t recommend you to trade into earnings, at least that’s not what I do.
So I will not target options with an expiration date that includes the company earnings report. I am trading options before we are running into earnings. So this is why I think it is very important that you know when trading options, whether it is buying or selling, that you don’t trade into earnings.
At least that’s what I do because earnings are a wildcard and there’s just too much uncertainty. Remember, I’m not looking for fireworks here, I’m looking to systematically grow my account through consistent and repeatable strategies.
Where To Check For Earnings
Now, I want to give you two more resources, if you want to see for yourself who is reporting and when.
These are two websites that are pretty cool that I personally use. So the first one here is “stock earnings.” If you go to stockearnings.com or they even have stocksearning.com, they will show you see the notable earnings that are coming up this week.
Now, another one that many people like to use is earningswhispers.com. So that’s another great source for finding out when companies will report earnings because this way you can make sure that you’re not trading right into earnings.
It’s always good to know when they report earnings if you have any open positions, whether you’re buying stocks or selling stocks so that you’re not caught off guard.
So I hope that this helped you to see how earnings impact option prices and why I never sell options into earnings.
Can we bounce?I will be looking for some kind of bounce from that blue zone. That is a very strong support zone. The weekly had 3 strong red candles and 3 is magic number,we could potentially have a green week (see attachment on DXY). So if we have good volume on a daily new york close im game. The target would be the 62.48 zone to close the gap.
Long Trade Idea on INTCRecommended Money Management
Risk 1% of capital
Sell 0.75% at TP 1
Sell 0.15% at TP 2
Let 0.1% ride to TP 3 or longer
EMA200 OR SMA200, GONNA KEEP AN EYE ONThe stock is holding EMA200 as the support while in the bottom SMA200 is waiting for it. But trend shows that after retesting EMA200 $57.OO support area. Stock is gonna bounce again, If market goes well. Otherwise, it can drop to other support levels!
Intel Corp. Elliott Analysis. D1It appears to have completed an Impulse Elliott wave and is in a correction.
We can wait for 55$ to get a long position in step1.
The next step is 52$
The first TP is 86$ and the second is 96$
$INTC Up Up and Awayfrom RSI and MACD also volume it looks like it is going to be a good swing trading stock
$INTC with a Bullish outlook following its earnings #Stocks The PEAD projected a Bullish outlook for $INTC after a Negative over reaction following its earnings release placing the stock in drift C
If you would like to see the Drift for another stock please message us. Also click on the Like Button if this was useful and follow us or join us.
Intel (INTC) First quarter results beat estimates and company raised the full-year outlook. Revenue was flat on the year at $19.7B. EPS was $1.39, $0.25 above estimates. The data center business posted a double-digit percentage decline. We still belive this stock is a choice for the years ahead and offer an interesting appeal for a 3 years investment horizon. Semiconductors are highly complex products to design and manufacture. No other industry has the same high level of investment in both R&D (22% of annual semiconductor sales to electronic device makers) and capital expenditure 26%). Here an interesting report from the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), that is the voice of the semiconductor industry in the US.
www.semiconductors.org
