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Daily Market Update for 5/5Summary: The Wednesday rally did not last and in a whiplash move markets sold off on Thursday, with some of the worst single-day losses since 2020. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, May 5, 2022 Facts: -4.99%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 22%, Body: 78% Red Good: Lower volume Bad: Big decline, lower high, lower low, advance/decline ratio Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Mostly red body, short lower wick from late dip buying Advance/Decline: 0.15, more than six declining stocks for every advancing Indexes: SPX (-3.56%), DJI (-3.12%), RUT (-4.04%), VIX (+22.74%) Sector List: Utilities (XLU -1.02%) and Energy (XLE -1.50%) at the top. Technology (XLK -4.81%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -5.60%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The Wednesday rally did not last and in a whiplash move markets sold off on Thursday, with some of the worst single-day losses since 2020. The Nasdaq plummeted by -4.99%. Volume was lower than the previous day. The candle has no upper wick, a 78% red body, and a 22% closing range. There were over 6 declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) fell by -4.04%. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined by -3.56%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined by -3.12%. The VIX Volatility Index shot up by +22.74%. All eleven S&P 500 sectors declined. Utilities (XLU -1.02%) and Energy (XLE -1.50%) were at the top of the list. Technology (XLK -4.81%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -5.60%) had the worst declines. The weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose to 200,000 this week, topping the forecast of 182,000. Nonfarm Productivity for Q1 dropped more than expected, receding by -7.5%. Unit Labor Costs for Q1 rose more than expected, rising by 11.6% instead of the 9.9% forecast. After dipping yesterday, the US Dollar Index (DXY) jumped back to recent highs, gaining +1.01% today. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all rose. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined. Brent Oil reached again $110 a barrel. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.881. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back toward Extreme Fear but is still in the Fear range. The NAAIM Money Manager Exposure Index rose to 57.18 from 46.25 the previous week. All of the big six mega-caps had huge losses. Tesla (TSLA) led the declines with a -8.33% drop today. Only Meta (FB) held above the 21d EMA and 50d MA lines, despite a -6.77% decline today. Only one stock in the Daily Update Growth List gained. Twitter (TWTR) rose by +2.65% as more financial support came for Elon Musk's purchase of the company. More than ten stocks on the list declined by more than 10%. Fastly (FSLY) ended up at the bottom of the list with a -18.09% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Tomorrow is Jobs Data Friday. Nonfarm Payrolls, the Unemployment Rate, and other jobs-related metrics will be released prior to the market opening. Four Fed officials are scheduled to speak throughout the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq reached the 13,000 support/resistance area yesterday but was rejected and sent tumbling today. If the index returns to the five-day trend line, that would mean a +0.88% gain for tomorrow. The trend line from the 3/29 high points to a -1.45% decline for tomorrow. If the one-day trend line continues into Friday, that would mean a -3.62% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up What a wild ride from yesterday's late afternoon rally to today's dramatic sell-off. It's unclear what drove yesterday's rally vs today's reposition. Could it be yesterday's relief over a 50 basis point increase vs the fear 75 basis point increase that drove the rally? And then as the additional two increases announced for June and July sank in, that drove today's decline? I don't know. Someone much smarter than me is making those decisions somewhere. Let's see if we get a rebound on Friday or if the pain continues. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Nasdaq Composite: sell the rumor, BUY the news! The investors have been panicking about rate hike, Russian war, oil price, inflation and recession for a couple of months. Recently the traditional 'collapse after rate hike' has become 'panic before rate hike, rally after rate hike'. This is because the fed has been more communicative about the rate hike, and the market is full of investors who try to be the fastest and often overreact. The bond market has shown some investors are expecting a 75 bps rate hike instead of 50 or 25 bps. This assumption is obviously ridiculous, so the investors became extremely relieved and excited after 4 May 2022 at the news of the 50 bps rate hike. The recession panic is also fading as investors realise the American economy remains strong and the Russian war or Chinese lockdown is not the end of world. This relief, coupled with the inflow of bargain hunters will send IXIC to the 0.618 resistance of 14680 and 0.786 resistance of 15354, in a matter of weeks. Then IXIC will probably consolidate between 14680 and 16212 for a while, and collapse again in September. Investors consider October as the worst month because they can't forget the disasters of October in 1929 and 2008. Therefore they tend to sell in September to avoid the perceived October disaster, making September an actually worse month than October. This pattern will combine with another wave of recession panic about rate hike and quantitative tightening, making September, October and possibly the first three and half weeks of November the bearish months of 2022. The long term trend remains strongly bullish as I have stated multiple times since 2019, so every major correction is an excellent opportunity to buy at discount.
TVC:IXICLong
by MarcusAu
Daily Market Update for 5/4Summary: Jerome Powell gave unexpected but specific guidance on not only today's interest rate hikes, but also the next two. In addition, the specifics around reducing the balance sheet helped squash the fear that the Fed would move too fast. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, May 4, 2022 Facts: +3.19%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 97%, Body: 63% Green Good: Gain on higher volume, strong afternoon rally with 97% closing range Bad: Lower low Highs/Lows: Higher high, Lower low Candle: Outside day, thick green body over a long lower wick, tiny upper wick Advance/Decline: Indexes: SPX (+2.99%), DJI (+2.81%), RUT (+2.69%), VIX (-13.09%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +4.15%) and Technology (XLK +3.51%) at the top. Health (XLV +2.22%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.18%) at the bottom. Expectation: -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Jerome Powell gave unexpected but specific guidance on not only today's interest rate hikes, but also the next two. In addition, the specifics around reducing the balance sheet helped squash the fear that the Fed would move too fast. The Nasdaq responded with a late-day rally that helped it close with a +3.19% gain. The intraday swing was a huge 5% from low to high. Volume was much higher than the previous day. The candle has a lower low and a higher high, making for an outside day. The closing range of 97% is above a 63% green body. There were two advancing stocks for every declining stock. The S&P 500 followed the Nasdaq with a +2.99% gain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) rose by +2.81%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) climbed by +2.69%. The VIX Volatility index dropped by -13.09%, although still remains elevated. All eleven S&P 500 sectors gained today. Energy (XLE +4.15%) and Technology (XLK +3.51%) were the best two sectors. Health (XLV +2.22%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.18%) were at the bottom of the sector list. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for April came in lower than expected at 57.1 compared to the 58.5 forecasts. However the Markit Services PMI and Composite PMI both beat expectations. The biggest news though was the Fed's decision to raise interest rates by 50 basis points to 1.0% and also stated the next two increases would be 50 basis points, not the 75 basis points feared by some analysts. The US Dollar Index (DXY) dropped -0.91%. The US 30y Treasury Yield gained while the 10y and 2y Treasury Yields declined. The gap between long and short-term yields widened. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices rose. Silver and Gold rose, thanks to the US Dollar's weakening. Brent Oil is at $109 a barrel after Europe proposed cutting off Russian oil. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.857. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved toward Neutral but remained in the Fear region. All of the big six mega-caps rose today. Meta (FB) topped the group with a +5.37% gain. Apple (AAPL) and Meta closed above their 21d EMA and 50d MA. Microsoft (MSFT) moved above its 21d EMA while Tesla (TSLA) closed above its 50d MA. The big six led the mega-cap list with Facebook, Tesla, Alphabet (GOOG), and Apple (AAPL) making up the top four. AstraZeneca (AZN) was the only declining stock in the list. The Daily Update Growth List closed almost entirely in the green. PayCom (PAYC) topped the list with a +13.78% gain. The only declining stock in the list was RH (RH) which lost -1.46%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Tomorrow we will get the weekly Initial Jobless Claims data before the market opens. We will also get Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs for Q1. Shell (SHEL), ConocoPhillips (COP), Block (SQ), Shopify (SHOP), MercadoLibre (MELI), DataDog (DDOG), Lucid (LCID), Cloudflare (NET), DoorDash (DASH), and Zillow (Z) are among the earnings reports for Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq moved back toward the 13,000 support/resistance area and stopped just short of that mark. Will it prove as resistance again or can the index move past the line and top the 21d EMA? If the one-day trend line continues into Thursday, that would mean a +3.26% gain, rising above the 21d EMA and stopping short of the 50d MA. If the index returns to the five-day trend line, that would mean a -3.78% decline. A drop to the trend line from the 3/29 high would mean a -5.83% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The afternoon rally felt good. Investors' confidence grew thanks to very specific guidance from the Fed on current and future interest rates and the balance sheet reduction. Forecasting with such specificity is not common for the Fed and shows how careful they are being to not create a recession. The next few days will be an important signal for equities. If the rally sticks, we should see a few days of gains on elevated volume and breath across the market with an advance/decline ratio over 1.0. Then some consolidation might begin late on Friday or early next week before the next move up. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 5/3Summary: There was less choppiness in a lighter volume trading day as investors way for the Fed interest rate decision on Wednesday. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, May 3, 2022 Facts: +0.22%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 56%, Body: 28% Green Good: Higher high and low, good closing range Bad: A/D below 1.0, need more volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Thin green body within a tight low and high Advance/Decline: 0.96, slightly more declining stocks than advancing Indexes: SPX (+0.48%), DJI (+0.20%), RUT (+0.85%), VIX (-9.55%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +2.80%) and Financials (XLF +1.30%) at the top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.25%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -0.29%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview There was less choppiness in a lighter volume trading day as investors way for the Fed interest rate decision on Wednesday. The Nasdaq climbed +0.22% today. Volume was lower than the previous day. The 28% green body sits in the middle of a tighter price range than what we've experienced almost daily for the last several weeks. The closing range of 56% is good and we got a higher high and higher low. There were slightly more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) did the best today, gaining +0.85%. The S&P 500 (SPX) rose by +0.48% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) advanced by +0.20%. The VIX Volatility index dropped by -9.55%, but remains elevated. Nine of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained. Energy (XLE +2.80%) and Financials (XLF +1.30%) were the best sectors. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.25%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -0.29%) were the two losing sectors. Both Factory Orders and JOLTs Job Openings for March were higher than forecast. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock was lower than expected, showing high demand. The US Dollar Index (DXY) dropped by -0.14% as it bounced up and down the last few days. US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields declined while the 2y Treasury Yield rose. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices rose. The put/call ratio (PCCE) declined to 0.753. The CNN Fear & Greed index remained in Fear. Four of the big six mega-caps gained. Apple (AAPL) led the way with a +0.96% advance. Microsoft (MSFT) declined -0.95%. Shell (SHEL) led the mega-cap list with a +3.55% gain. The top four mega-caps were Energy and Financial companies. Visa (V) had the biggest decline in the list, losing -1.40% today. The Daily Update Growth List had mixed results. The biggest gain came from Enphase (ENPH) which advanced by +3.68%. Okta, Inc. (OKTA) was at the bottom of the list, declining by -5.04% today. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead All eyes will be on the Fed Interest Rate Decision tomorrow afternoon. The expectation is for a 50 basis point rise to bring interest rates to 1.00%. Before the Fed's decision, we'll get Trade Balance data for March and the Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index for April. Crude Oil Inventories come later in the morning. CVS (CVS), Booking (BKNG), Moderna (MRNA), Uber Tech (UBER), Marriot (MAR), Fortinet (FTNT), and eBay (EBAY) are among the companies reporting earnings on Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq stayed within a relatively tight trading range today. If the one-day trend line continues into Wednesday, expect a +0.38% advance. If the index returns to the five-day trend line, that would mean a -1.14% decline. The trend line from the 3/29 high points to a -2.48% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Let's hope the Fed gives us a boring day tomorrow, by doing exactly as expected and raising interest rates by 50 basis points. Boring is good for the stock market. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 5/2Summary: A late rally helped stocks close higher on Monday as long-term Treasuries rose above 3% ahead of the Fed meeting this week. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, May 2, 2022 Facts: +1.63%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 98%, Body: 60% Green Good: Closing range, gain on higher volume Bad: Lower high, lower low Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Green body covers upper half of candle Advance/Decline: 1.08, about the same number of advancing and declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.57%), DJI (+0.26%), RUT (+1.01%), VIX (-3.17%) Sector List: Communications (XLC +2.76%) and Energy (XLE +1.60%) at the top. Consumer Staples (XLP -1.31%) and Real Estate (XLRE -2.60%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview A late rally helped stocks close higher on Monday as long-term Treasuries rose above 3% ahead of the Fed meeting this week. The Nasdaq closed up by +1.63%. The high closing range of 98% came after the index rallied in the final hour of trading. The index flipped from a red to green in the rally, leaving behind a long lower wick below a 60% green body. Volume was higher than the previous day. There was a nearly equal number of advancing and declining stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) gained +1.01%. The S&P 500 (SPX) rose by +0.57%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced by +0.26%. The VIX Volatility Index fell by -3.17%. Six of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained today. Communications (XLC +2.76%) and Energy (XLE +1.60%) topped the sector list while Consumer Staples (XLP -1.31%) and Real Estate (XLRE -2.60%) were at the bottom. Purchasing Manager Index data released in the morning showed a contraction in manufacturing activity which echoed data coming from China. The US Dollar Index (DXY) gained +0.38% today, moving back toward recent highs. The US 30y Treasury Yield topped 3% for the first time since 2019. The 10y and 2y Treasury Yields also rose today. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices were lower. Silver and Gold continue to sink, credit to the strengthening dollar. Brent Oil is at $107 per barrel. The put/call ratio (PCCE) declined to 1.03, remaining in a bearish range. The CNN Fear & Greed index remains deep in the Fear range. All of the big six mega-caps gained today. Meta (FB) led the gains with a +5.32% advance. Amazon (AMZN) just barely closed with a gain, rising +0.18% for the day after dipping nearly 5% earlier in the session. Meta and Nvidia (NVDA) both gained +5.32% to top the mega-cap list. PepsiCo (PEP) was at the bottom of the list with a -2.30% decline. All but two stocks in the Daily Update Growth List gained today, most advancing more than 4%. Roku (ROKU) was the top gainer with a +11.01% advance. DataDog (DDOG) and Niu Tech (NIU) were the two decliners, dropping by -0.48% and -1.05%, respectively. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The big news this week be on Wednesday with the Fed interest rate decision. For tomorrow, we will get Factory Orders and the JOLTs Job Openings report for March. In the afternoon, the weekly API Crude Oil Stock report will arrive. Pfizer (PFE), AMD (AMD), Airbnb (ABNB), Starbucks (SBUX), and Hilton (HLT) are among the earning reports for Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The late session rally wasn't enough to move the one-day regression trend line to an uptrend. The one-day and five-day trend lines and the trend line from the 3/29 high are pointing to a -1.52% decline for Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up I'm not sure the rally in the late afternoon today means much. The put/call ratio is still high. So as some investors turned bullish, there are still plenty of investors that are betting on further declines. There's not much to go on for expectations on Tuesday, but we can probably look forward to more choppiness as investors prepare for Wednesday's Fed decisions. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
NASDAQ - We calculated the Top Exactly but this Dip? 🦉First of all, allow us to brag about calculating the 16,300 Top back in June 2021: We will revert with a new chart, trying to estimate the bottom, but only after the rate hike decision. For the time being, here is our Nasdaq chart with some interesting, historical analysis. We have been experiencing a major correction in the past weeks and the question is how deep will it end up being. Will the price reach the 10,000 (pre-Covid levels) or will we see a rebound soon? With Rate Hikes coming up, Inflation and War in Ukraine causing worries and with the 'printing' at ease it will be hard to price in where the Nasdaq belongs at the moment. Money was printed by the tons, the younger generation tends to invest before they even work (!!) and not just crypto and the mighty Nasdaq IS a symbol of how Technology will rule, or is ruling already, the World. Low rates and printing, benefit the stock markets. If interest rates rise higher than anticipated the chances of a deeper correction will increase. Remember our earlier projection is going as per plan: www.tradingview.com Nevertheless, take a look at our little informative chart art and let us know if you like it. What's next? One love, the FXPROFESSOR
NASDAQ:IXICShort
by FX_Professor
2
Daily Market Update for 4/28Summary: Strong earnings from big tech helped boost the stock market on Thursday, led by Meta, PayPal and Qualcomm. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, April 28, 2022 Facts: +3.06%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 83%, Body: 34% Green Good: Gain on higher volume, long lower wick shows bullish reversal Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Green body above long lower wick, short upper wick Advance/Decline: 1.26, more advancing than declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+2.47%), DJI (+1.85%), RUT (+1.80%), VIX (-5.09%) Sector List: Technology (XLK +4.00%) and Communications (XLC +4.00%) at the top. Industrials (XLI +1.13%) and Utilities (XLU +1.11%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Strong earnings from big tech helped boost the stock market on Thursday, led by Meta, PayPal and Qualcomm. The tech-heavy Nasdaq soared +3.06% on higher volume than the previous day. The 34% green body sits above a long lower wick showing a bullish reversal to the upside mid-day. The closing range of 83% comes after a little profit taking at the end of the day. There were more advancing stocks than declining stocks. All indexes had great days. The S&P 500 (SPX) rose by +2.47%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) climbed by +1.85%. And the Russell 2000 (RUT) gained +1.80%. The VIX Volatility Index remains elevated, but declined by -5.09% today. All S&P 500 sectors gained. Technology (XLK +4.00%) and Communications (XLC +4.00%) tied for the top spot on the sector list. Industrials (XLI +1.13%) and Utilities (XLU +1.11%) were at the bottom. The morning dip was probably due to economic data that showed the economy shrinking in the first quarter despite higher prices. The combination is a recipe for stagflation, one of the biggest market evils. Initial Jobless Claims hit the forecast exactly at 180,000 for last week. The US Dollar just won't quit. The US Dollar index (DXY) rose by another +0.65% today. US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields declined while the 2y Yield rose slightly. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices tracked higher with Treasuries. Brent Oil rose to $107 a barrel. The put/call ratio (PCCE) lowered slightly to 0.935. The CNN Fear & Greed index landed in the middle of the fear range. The NAAIM money manager exposure index dropped to 46.25. There were big gains for the big six. Meta (FB) rose +17.59% despite mixed results. The surprise came in unexpected user growth. Microsoft (MSFT) continued it post-earnings gains with a +2.26% advance today. Alphabet (GOOG) rebounded a bit from yesterday's loss, advancing by +3.82% today. Apple (AAPL) and Amazon(AMZN) both gained over 4% ahead of their earnings releases in the evening. Both were down in extended hours trading. Apple beat expectations but provided a cautious outlook for Q3 due to the impact of shutdowns in China. Amazon disappointed on results as the surge in consumer online spending during the pandemic is tapering off. Meta was the top mega-cap, followed by Nvidia (NVDA) which gained +7.42%, likely thanks to Qualcomm's performance. Novo Nordisk (NVO) fell by -1.23% to end at the bottom of the mega-cap list which had only four declining stocks. On the Daily Update Growth List, it was Pinterest (PINS), Upwork (UPWK) ,and PayPal (PYPL) that soared on earnings results, all rising more than 10%. Pinterest topped the list with a +13.55% gain. Four stocks ended up with losses at the bottom of the list. Ehang Holdings (EH) had the biggest decline, losing -1.38% today. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead PCE Price Index Data for March will be released tomorrow morning. We will also get the Chicago PMI and Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Consumer Expectations numbers for April. Exxon Mobil (XOM) both Chevron (CVX) report earnings in the morning. AbbVie (ABBV) and Honeywell (HON) are also notable reports for Friday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance After a dip in the morning, the Nasdaq headed back toward the 13,000 support/resistance area, stopping short of 13,000 before a bit of profit taking before the close. That action created a one-day trend line that points to a +4.36% advance for Friday. The index is unlikely to rise that much in one day, especially given Amazon will most certainly decline. If sentiment turns bearish and the index returns to the five-day trend, that would meet up with the trend line from the 3/29 high and mean a -2.82% decline to end the week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Something like 40% of Nasdaq companies reported earnings this week. Overall earnings continue to show strong performance from public companies across sectors and sizes. Leaders are cautious about the next few quarters which will continue to make investors cautious. Tomorrow could be a good signal of just how investors feel after taking the whole week of reports in view. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
INDEX ANALYSIS INDEX ANALYSIS: All three index caught a nice bounce off the floor today with the Crypto Index (right) still having exhibited the least downside skew as illustrated by the ARENA (top) indicator, never crossing -1 standard deviation to the downside. When looking at the Nasdaq (left) and SPX (center) we can see that both indexes recently breached -1 standard deviation on their respective ARENA (top) indicators. We also see the Crypto Index (right) exhibiting higher upside skew, having recently breached +2 standard deviation to the upside during the late March/Ukraine rally while the Nasdaq (left) and the SPX (center) only rose above +1 standard deviation during the rally. Moving down to the PIG RSI (middle) we see the Nasdaq (left) continuing to remain the deepest oversold followed by the SPX (center) and the Crypto Index (right), with all three indexes exhibiting a similar “floor bounce” illustrated by signal line (yellow) pointing upward on all three PIG RSI (middle) indicators. From our HISTORICAL VOLATILITY PERCENTILE (bottom) indicator we see both the Nasdaq (left) and the SPX (center) exhibiting high (red) to elevated (orange) levels of historical volatility while the Crypto Index (right) remains relatively calm (blue) despite significant trend correlation to both the Nasdaq (left) and SPX (center) at the time of writing this report. In summary we can say that the Crypto Index is exhibiting less instability from a historical volatility perspective relative to both the Nasdaq and the SPX in part because it rallied harder to the upside (ARENA, top) at the end of March/beginning of April and hasn’t sold off as deeply (RSI, middle). This more positive price/volume skew distribution in the Crypto Index relative to the NDX and SPX creates the conditions for a lower, respective historical volatility reading… but will it hold? Stay tuned to stay informed. (The above charts are for educational purposes only and are not intended as financial advice.) #crypto #bitcoin #finance #icix #spx #defi #cryptotrading #cryptoinvesting #cryptocurrency
NASDAQ:IXIC
by Firewalker_Charts
Daily Market Update for 4/27Summary: Equities were mixed as the US Dollar continues to strengthen against the Euro and Japanese Yen. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, April 27, 2022 Facts: -0.01%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 21%, Body: 4% Red Good: Lower volume on decline Bad: Lower high, lower low, closing range, long upper wick Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Thing red body near bottom of candle underneath a long upper wick Advance/Decline: 0.51, two declining for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.21%), DJI (+0.19%), RUT (-0.34%), VIX (-5.73%) Sector List: Technology (XLK +1.48%) and Materials (XLB +1.47%) at the top. Real Estate (XLRE -0.60%) and Communications (XLC -2.23%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Equities were mixed as the US Dollar continues to strengthen against the Euro and Japanese Yen. The Nasdaq closed just -0.01% lower after a morning rally failed and turned into afternoon selling. The 4% red body underneath a long upper wick shows the round trip to intraday highs that eventually resulted in a 21% closing range. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) did better, helped by Microsoft and the Technology sector. It closed +0.21% higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained by +0.19%. Small-caps did not fare well, with the Russell 2000 (RUT) declining -0.34%. The VIX Volatility Index dropped -5.73%. Six of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained today. Technology (XLK +1.48%) led the list with help from Microsoft. Materials (XLB +1.47%) was the next best sector. Communications (XLC -2.23%) was at the bottom of the sector list, brought down by Google and Facebook losses. The US Dollar continues to strengthen. The index (DXY) that measures the dollar against a basket of other currencies, rose +0.68% today. It is up more than 5% for the month. Treasury Yields rose. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined. Silver and Gold continued to drop. Brent Oil remains around $105 a barrel. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.937. The CNN Fear & Greed index remains deep in the Fear region. Microsoft (MSFT) led the big six mega-cap list with a +4.81% gain after strong earnings. Alphabet (GOOGL) led the declines with a -3.75% loss after taking another hit on advertising revenues. Meta (FB) declined by -3.32% as investors expected a similar fate, but then the company surprised with stronger-than-expected user growth and the stock rose % by 18 in extended trading. Visa (V) was the top mega-cap, gaining +6.47% after telling investors there was no impact on the business from economic and geopolitical situations. Mastercard (MA) rose +5.07% thanks to the Visa news. Alphabet and Facebook were the worst two mega-caps for the day. JD.com (JD) led the Daily Update Growth List with a +7.91% gain. Enphase (ENPH) deserves an honorable mention after climbing +7.72% to land in the second spot thanks to strong earnings. Beyond Meat (BYND) is also notable. The stock gained +30% intraday on misunderstood news coverage. After the news was clarified, the stock dropped but held onto a +7.57% gain. Roku (ROKU) was at the bottom of the list again, declining by -7.63% today. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead We'll get the first look at GDP for Q1 on Thursday. We'll also get the weekly Initial Jobless Claims. The big six mega-caps will finish out their earnings season with Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) reporting on Thursday. In addition, Mastercard (MA), Eli Lilly (LLY), Merck (MRK), Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), Comcast (CMCSA), Intel (INTC), and McDonald's (MCD) are among many more reporting in this busy earnings week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance If the one-day trend continues into Thursday, that will be near the trend line from the 3/29 high and result in a +0.47% gain. The five-day trend line points to a -2.24% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Earnings continue to surprise in multiple ways. While Meta faces some of the same earnings pressures as Google, the company was able to show strong user growth and excite investors. Overall the earnings season continues to show companies outperforming and showing a positive outlook even amidst headwinds. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Nasdaq Reversal Fibs 2000 Crash History RhymeI used an 80% retrace in 2022, though the 2000 retrace was worse as a percentage. The comp would fit with a deflationary crash if the Fed doesn't do an about face. I see the DXY moving up to 103.5 tonight and trying hard to break a long term resistance level to the upside. This is mostly a measure of other fiat currencies and heavily the Euro, so it makes sense with the fed raising or at least pretending to raise rates aggressively and Europe in the throes of an energy crisis, that the dollar would have jet boosters added to it. But go to the store and buy any good or commodity with the dollar and it buys less with each passing day. Now imagine being a foreign fiat currency holder and trying to go to the store to do the same thing. It's significantly worse with the exception of commodity producing countries and the only one of those that hasn't dropped recently with the commodity sell off is Russia, which is outperforming the dollar presently. The fed either punts on rate hikes by June's meeting or everyone long in the market may get the Klaus Schwab treatment, including a shit ton of boomers at retirement age. Look sharp folks, S&P 500 breaks the 4150~ level and doesn't quickly turn up, the next wave down starts.
NASDAQ:IXICShort
by worldlyFriend67762
3
Daily Market Update for 4/26Summary: Investors sold off growth stocks ahead of big tech earnings this week, fearing the worst for the outlook on future growth. Microsoft and Google painted different pictures with their earnings reports after the market closed. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, April 26, 2022 Facts: -3.95%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 0%, Body: 100% Red Good: Nothing Bad: Sell-off on high volume, no upper or lower wicks Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: 100% red body, no wicks Advance/Decline: Indexes: SPX (-2.81%), DJI (-2.38%), RUT (-3.26%), VIX (+24.06%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +0.14%) and Utilities (XLU -1.00%) at the top. Technology (XLK -3.73%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -5.06%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Investors sold off growth stocks ahead of big tech earnings this week, fearing the worst for the outlook on future growth. Microsoft and Google painted different pictures with their earnings reports after the market closed. The Nasdaq dropped by a huge -3.95% on higher volume the previous day. The candle is 100% red body with no upper or lower wicks. Prices fell sharply in the morning before pausing and then continued the sell-off late in the afternoon. There were over 8 declining stocks for every advancing stock. Small-caps were hit hard as well. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined by -3.26%. The S&P 500 (SPX) dropped by -2.81% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell by -2.38%. The VIX Volatility Index rose by +24.06% closing at its highest level since early March. Of the eleven S&P 500 sectors, only Energy (XLE +0.14%) ended the day with gains. Utilities (XLU -1.00%) was the next best sector. Technology (XLK -3.73%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -5.06%) had the biggest losses. Economic data today was not far off expectations but did arrive lower than forecast. CB Consumer Confidence for April registered at 107.3 compared to the forecast of 108.0. New Home Sales in March were 763,000 compared to the forecast of 765,000. API Weekly Crude oil Stock was higher than expected. There were 4.8 million barrels compared to the forecast of 2.2 million barrels. The US Dollar index (DXY) rose by another +0.56%, adding more pressure to large multinationals whose international revenues are impacted by a strong dollar. US 30y, 10y and 2y Treasury Yields all declined. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices also declined, showing the negative sentiment for corporations. Brent Oil rose to $105 a barrel. Timber continued its sharp decline over the past week while both Copper and Aluminum are also declining sharply. The put/call ratio (PCCE) declined to 0.927. The CNN Fear & Greed Index dropped nearly to Extreme Fear. All of the big six mega-caps had massive declines, but none more than Tesla (TSLA) which dropped by -12.18% on fears of how the Twitter deal might impact Tesla. Microsoft (MSFT) dropped by -3.74%, but beat earnings expectations and rose by +4.51% in the after-hours market. Alphabet (GOOG) fell by -3.04% and continued declining another -3.19% after its earnings report. Only two mega-caps, Pfizer (PFE) and Exxon Mobil (XOM), advanced. Even those two advanced only a bit, gaining +0.16% and 0.04% respectively. Tesla was at the bottom of the mega-cap list. The Daily Update Growth List had only one advancing stock. Niu Technologies (NIO) rose by +3.47%. The biggest loser on the list was Roku (ROKU) which declined by -9.52%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The Goods Trade Balance and Retail Inventories (not including Auto) for March arrive in the morning. After the market opens, Pending Home Sales for March and the weekly Crude Oil Inventories will be available. Meta (FB), Qualcomm (QCOM), and PayPal (PYPL) are the high-profile earnings reports for tomorrow. In addition to those, T-Mobile (TMUS), Boeing (BA), ADP (ADP), ServiceNow (NOW), and Ford (F) report among many others on another busy earnings day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq could not hold onto yesterday's close above the 13,000 support area. After opening in the positive, it quickly fell to end the day at its lowest close since 2020. Year to date, the index is down -20%. If the index returns to the trend line from the 3/29 high, it would require a +1.76% gain tomorrow. The five-day and one-day trend lines point to similar spots, around a -1.34% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Fears gripped the market today. How will Elon Musk's purchase of Twitter impact Tesla? What will the outlook be for corporate America as economic and geopolitical issues continue? Is a recession on the horizon? And yet, the fears that dropped Tesla by 12% are just that. Fears. Fears that are not based on any material change in Tesla's performance. Fears on the outlook for big tech? With the exception of Google, earnings reports have been positive. Not only the results, but Visa reports no impact from recent events and improved their outlook. Microsoft expects to continue driving more adoption of digital technologies. More to come later this week will paint a fuller picture. Is a recession on the horizon? Maybe, or maybe not. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
NASDAQ Bubble Bust DXY CorrelationThe market peaked in Nov and is in Bubble-Bust-Mode. DXY is breaking out upwards from a multi-year consolidation. Looking back to the DotCom Bubble and comparing NASDAQ to DXY, DXY broke out near the equity peak and reached its peak when NASDAQ was near bottom of the crash. It's not a perfect correlation in shorter time-frames, but close enough that it may be useful on the macro time-frame. If the current Asset/Big-Tech Bubble rhymes with history, look for DXY to continue upward into 110-120 range or higher over the next year or so as NASDAQ plummets back down to reality, e.g. somewhere around the 200 Month Moving Average. Then whenever DXY is crashing back down towards ~100 that may be a good signal that the bottom is in for equities.
TVC:IXIC
by RobBiddle
Nasdaq nearing close of head and shoulders?I have been watching this pattern on .IXIc develop for over a year, and with much negative news influencing the markets, it looks like we may be close to a bear reversal in the medium trend. The drawn pattern on NASDAQ shows almost identical two hump left shoulder. One property of a H&S pattern is symmetry, which seems to occur with the two humps on the right. The right shoulder just touched the neckline, but will likely encounter some sideways movement before continuing the downtrend to possibly 11500. I will be cautious on entering any long positions at this time.
TVC:IXICShort
by yousafkhan1976
1
Daily Market Update for 4/25Summary: Investor sentiment changed mid-day, reversing a gap-down open into gains across all major indexes by the end of the day. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, April 25, 2022 Facts: +1.29%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 98%, Body: 89% Green Good: Gains on higher volume, great closing range Bad: Lower high, lower low Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Piercing candle that opens gap-down but ends day with gain Advance/Decline: 0.94, slightly more declining than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.57%), DJI (+0.70%), RUT (+0.70%), VIX (-4.22%) Sector List: Technology (XLK +1.50%) and Communications (XLC +1.37%) at the top. Utilities (XLU -0.69%) and Energy (XLE -3.31%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Investor sentiment changed mid-day, reversing a gap-down open into gains across all major indexes by the end of the day. The Nasdaq closed the day with a +1.29% gain on higher volume than the previous day. The candle has an 89% green body sitting above a small lower wick and the day ended with a 98% closing range. The lower high and lower low continue a downtrend, but the piercing candle that starts with a gap-down and ends with gains could signal a reversal. There were slightly more declining than advancing stocks for the day. The other major indexes all have longer lower wicks as they dipped further after open before the Nasdaq led them higher. The Russell 2000 (RUT) ended the day with a +0.70% gain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) also advanced by +0.70%. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.57%. The VIX Volatility Index declined by -4.22%. Six of the eleven S&P 500 sectors ended the day with gains, and another ended the day flat. Growth sectors led the way with Technology (XLK +1.50%) and Communications (XLC +1.37%) having the best gains. Utilities (XLU -0.69%) and Energy (XLE -3.31%) were at the bottom of the sector list. The US Dollar index (DXY) continues to climb, rising +0.61% today. The US 30Y, 10Y, and 2Y Treasury Yields all declined. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices rose. Silver and Gold continue to drop sharply as the US dollar rises. Brent Oil ended the day near $102 a barrel. The put/call ratio (PCCE) remained above 1.0, ending the day at +1.027. That indicates that investors are hedging despite the gains in growth stocks today. The CNN Fear & Greed Index remains in the Fear range. Of the big six mega-caps, only Tesla (TSLA) declined. It's possible Tesla investors are worried about possible sales by Elon Musk to fund his purchase of Twitter. Alphabet (GOOG) led the gains in the group with a +3.04% advance. Alphabet was also the top overall mega-cap, followed by Novo Nordisk (NVO) which gained +2.73%. Big energy companies were at the bottom of the mega-cap list. Exxon Mobil (XOM) had the biggest loss, declining by -3.37% today. There was a lot of green in the Daily Update Growth List. Snowflake (SNOW) was at the top of the list, gaining +7.56%. There were only a handful of declining stocks, mostly Chinese companies. UP Fintech (TIGR) was at the bottom of the list, dropping by -2.94% today. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Tuesday will kick off with an update on Durable Goods Orders for March. After the market opens, we'll get New Home Sales for March. CB Consumer Confidence for April will also be published after the market open. In the afternoon is the Weekly API Crude Oil Stock update. Big tech kicks off earnings this week (With the exception of Tesla, which went early in order to announce on 4/20). Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOG) will report after the closing bell on Tuesday. In addition, Visa (V), PepsiCo (PEP), Novartis (NVS), United Parcel Service (UPS), Texas Instruments (TXN), HSBC (HSBC), General Electric (GE), Chubb (CB), 3M (MMM), Sherwin-Williams (SW), General Motors (GM), Chipotle (CMG), and Enphase (ENPH) report among many others. It is not just a long list of big companies reporting, but the diversity across sectors and markets means we will get a very real look at performance and, more importantly, outlook for corporate America in the current economic and geopolitical context. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq opened with a gap-down but then received support mid-day and marched higher, closing above the 13,000 support area. If the one-day trend line continues into Tuesday, it would mean a +1.37% advance. If the index returns to the five-day trend line, that will result in a -1.15% decline. The trend line from the 3/29 high points to a -3.20% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Did Elon Musk cause the market to reverse to the upside? That's what some think. It very well could be true. His purchase of Twitter may have turned sentiment toward buying growth stocks and carried the Nasdaq higher, followed by the other indexes. What matters now is the story that comes out of tomorrow's earnings reports and through the rest of this week. Investors will be watching closely the results, but even more so the underlying metrics for each business and the outlook for executives. They will get that story across several industries and from companies both big and small. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 4/22Summary: Indexes continued to dip as investors absorbed the likely 50-basis point interest rate hike coming in a few weeks. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, April 22, 2022 Facts: -2.55%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 3%, Body: 86% Red Good: Lower volume Bad: Drop below 13,000, closing range and advance/decline Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Large red body with small upper wick Advance/Decline: 0.24, four declining for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-2.77%), DJI (-2.82%), RUT (-2.55%), VIX (+24.38%) Sector List: Consumer Staples (XLP -1.57%) and Utilities (XLU -1.68%) at the top. Health (XLV -3.65%) and Materials (XLB -3.74%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Indexes continued to dip as investors absorbed the likely 50-basis point interest rate hike coming in a few weeks. The Nasdaq fell -2.55%, only pausing briefly at 13,000 before dipping below the support area. The only good news was that volume was lower than the previous day, signaling some slowdown in selling. But buyers were not present as seen by the 86% red body and 3% closing range on the candle. There were four declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) matched the Nasdaq's decline, also falling by -2.55%. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined by -2.77%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell by -2.82%. The VIX Volatility shot up by +24.38%. All eleven S&P 500 sectors declined. Even the best sector for today, Consumer Staples (XLP -1.57%), fell more than one percent. Utilities (XLU -1.68%) followed Consumer Staples at the top of the list. Health (XLV -3.65%) and Materials (XLB -3.74%) were the worst-hit sectors. The Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) for April was 59.7, exceeding the forecast of 58.2. The Services PMI came in lower than forecast at 54.7 compared to the expected 58.0. The US Dollar Index (DXY) hit another recent high, rising by +0.49% today. The US 30Y Treasury Yield rose today while the 10y and 2y yields declined slightly. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate bond prices declined. Silver and Gold prices both declined sharply as the USD dollar rose and scared off investors from the safe-haven metals. Brent Oil dipped to near $105 a barrel. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is up above 1.0, ending the day at 1.11. The CNN Fear & Greed index fell back into the Fear range. The NAAIM Money Manager Exposure index (measured on Wednesdays) rose to 74.05 after dropping to 63.29 last week. All big six mega-caps declined. Alphabet (GOOG) fell the most, declining by -4.26% today. Tesla (TSLA) held up the best, declining only -0.37%. Only one mega-cap gained. Alibaba (BABA) ended the day with a +0.58% advance. The worst mega-cap was Verizon (VZ) which declined by -5.64% and helped lead the rest of the market lower with a disappointing outlook during its earnings report this morning. Twitter (TWTR) topped the Daily Update Growth List with a +3.93% gain. Other gainers on the list were mostly Chinese stocks. Chewy (CHWY) was at the bottom of the list, declining by -6.76% today. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Coca-Cola (KO), Activision Blizzard (ATVI), and Whirlpool (WHR) are a few of the earnings reports to kick off a huge earnings calendar for the week. The remaining five of the big six mega-caps report next week along with several other reports that will be closely watched for outlook more important than results. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq just briefly picked up support at 13,000 before diving lower today. If the index returns to the trend line from the 3/29 high, that would meet up with the five-day trend line for a +1.29% gain on Monday. The one-day trend line points to a continued sell-off and a decline of -2.23% to start the week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up As a 50-basis point interest rate hike is nearly certain at this point, the good news is that the Fed (other than Bullard) are not entertaining a massive 75-basis point hike which hasn't happened since the 1990s. Take a breather this weekend. We all deserve one. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 4/21Summary: The Fed's Jerome Powell has spoken and a 50 basis point interest rate hike is practically certain. The day started out well but then equities slid as Treasury yields rose. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, April 21, 2022 Facts: -2.07%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 6%, Body: 79% Red Good: Higher high Bad: High volume distribution, long red body, advance/decline and low close range Highs/Lows: Higher high, Lower low Candle: Large red body under a longer upper wick, outside day Advance/Decline: 0.2, five declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-1.48%), DJI (-1.05%), RUT (-2.29%), VIX (+11.61%) Sector List: Consumer Staples (XLP -0.09%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.65%) at the top. Communications (XLC -2.85%) and Energy (XLE -3.17%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The Fed's Jerome Powell has spoken and a 50 basis point interest rate hike is practically certain. The day started out well but then equities slid as Treasury yields rose. The Nasdaq closed down by -2.07%. The intraday decline from the morning high was -3.91%. Ouch. A long upper wick sits above a 79% Red body that ends with a 6% closing range. Volume was higher than the previous day as five stocks declined for every advancing stock. Small caps had the worst decline, with the Russell 2000 (RUT) dropping by -2.29%. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell by -1.48% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined by -1.05%. The VIX Volatility Index rose by +11.62%. All eleven S&P 500 sectors declined. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.09%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.65%) ended the day at the top of the list while Communications (XLC -2.85%) and Energy (XLE -3.17%) had the most severe losses. The weekly Initial Jobless Claims came in at 184,000, slightly higher than the forecasted 180,000. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index read 17.6 compared to a forecast of 21.0. The more impactful news was likely Jerome Powell's confirmation that a 50 basis point hike was on the table for May. The US Dollar Index rose +0.28%. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields rose with the gap narrowing between long-term and short-term yields. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.972, its highest closing ratio since February. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back toward Fear. The NAAIM Money Manager Exposure index rose to 74.05 after dropping to 63.29 last week. The only of the big six to gain today was Tesla (TSLA) which please investors with earnings yesterday and advanced by +3.23%. Meta (FB) had the furthest fall, declining by -6.16%. Amazon (AMZN) declined by -3.70%. Only a handful of mega-caps gained today. Tesla was at the top of the list, followed by AbbVie (ABBV) which gained +1.16%. Facebook was at the bottom. The next worst was Nvidia (NVDA) which dropped by -6.05% today. The only stock in the Daily Update Growth List to gain was Twitter (TWTR) which ended the day with a +0.77% advance. SolarEdge (SEDG) and Enphase (ENPH) were at the bottom of the list with -9.75% and -12.31% declines. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Manufacturing and Services PMI numbers for April will be published in the morning. Verizon (VZ), American Express (AXP), and SAP (SAP) top the list of big companies reporting earnings tomorrow morning. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq fell sharply after starting the morning with gains that took it just above the 21d EMA and 50d MA. It then sold off the rest of the day to create a new weekly low. Returning to the five-day trend line would mean a +1.99% for Friday. If the one-day trend were to continue into tomorrow, that would mean a -4.37% decline. The trend line from the 3/29 high points to a -0.59% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up If you're tired of Fed officials speaking publicly and markets reacting severely, I have good news for you. They now enter a two-week quiet period until the Fed meeting in the first week of May. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 4/20Summary: Yields on longer-term treasuries dropped sharply today as did the US Dollar index. Growth stocks led the Nasdaq lower while the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed higher. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, April 20, 2022 Facts: -1.22%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 11%, Body: 84% Red Good: Higher high, higher low Bad: Mostly red body, closing range, higher volume on decline Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Mostly red body, barely visible wicks Advance/Decline: 0.75, more declining than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.06%), DJI (+0.71%), RUT (+0.37%), VIX (-4.91%) Sector List: Real Estate (XLRE +1.89%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +1.50%) at the top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.29%) and Communications (XLC -4.34%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Yields on longer-term treasuries dropped sharply today as did the US Dollar index. Growth stocks led the Nasdaq lower while the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed higher. The Nasdaq closed lower by -1.22% after starting the day in the green. The closing range of 11% and 84% red body show that selling dominated the day. There was higher volume on the decline and more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) was able to gain +0.71%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) gained by +0.37%. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined by -0.06%. The VIX Volatility Index continued lower, dropping by -4.91% today. The three growth sectors declined while the other eight of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained. Real Estate (XLRE +1.89%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +1.50%) were at the top of the sector list. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.29%) and Communications (XLC -4.34%) were at the bottom. Existing Home Sales for March were lower than forecast. The strong building permits and new home sales data from yesterday caused Timber prices to continue to move higher. Crude Oil Inventories were much lower than forecast, showing higher demand. The Fed Beige Books released in the afternoon showed slow steady growth but headwinds for companies on inflation and worker shortages. The US Dollar index (DXY) declined by -0.65%. The US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields declined sharply. The 2y yield declined as well, but not as much as longer-term notes. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices followed Treasury prices higher (yields lower, prices rise). Brent Oil remained at $106 a barrel. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.794. The CNN Fear & Greed Index remained Neutral. Of the big six mega-caps, only Microsoft (MSFT) gained today, advancing +0.37%. Meta (FB) had the biggest decline, dropping by -7.77% as it followed the Communications sector lower. Thermo Fisher (TMO) was the best mega-cap for the day, climbing by +2.96%. Meta was at the bottom of the list, followed by Disney (DIS) which lose -5.56%. The Daily Update Growth List only had two winners today. Twitter (TWTR) escaped the drawdown in the communications sector and gained +1.21% today to top the list. Probably most know who's at the bottom of the list. Netflix (NFLX) dropped by -35.12% today after losing subscribers for the first time in a decade. Tesla (TSLA) impressed investors in its earnings release and was up over 5% in after-hours trading. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Tomorrow will start with the weekly Initial Jobless Claims. Also before the market opens, we will get the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for April. Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak tomorrow. These will be his last comments before the quiet period preceding the May 3-4 Fed meeting. We can expect him to firm up a 50 basis point interest rate hike for May. Philip Morris (PM), Blackstone Group (BX), AT&T (T), ABB (ABB), Snap (SNAP), KeyCorp (KEY), and American Airlines (AAL) are some of the earnings reports for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq set a higher high today before losing the opening rally and selling the rest of the day. If the one-day and five-day trend lines continue, we can expect a -0.16% decline for Thursday. The trend line from the 3/29 high leads to a -2.41% decline for Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Netflix reported a 200,000 net loss in subscribers and projected another 2 million loss for the next quarter. That sent the stock price down by -35% and weighed down the Communications sector with bad sentiment which likely rippled through growth sectors as well. Now we have a good report from Tesla which should help with investor sentiment. And it remains to be seen if Netflix's decline in subscribers is isolated from the leader, or will other streaming services report declines also. Tomorrow we should see Jerome Powell firm up expectations for the rate hike coming in May. That should provide some stability for markets, removing (or confirming) fears of a larger hike which were stoked by various Fed officials over the past week. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321