Get started
Nasdaq Composite IndexNasdaq Composite IndexNasdaq Composite Index

Nasdaq Composite Index

No trades
See on Supercharts
Overview News
Ideas
Discussions Technicals Seasonals Components

IXIC trade ideas

NASDAQ Bubble Bust DXY CorrelationThe market peaked in Nov and is in Bubble-Bust-Mode. DXY is breaking out upwards from a multi-year consolidation. Looking back to the DotCom Bubble and comparing NASDAQ to DXY, DXY broke out near the equity peak and reached its peak when NASDAQ was near bottom of the crash. It's not a perfect correlation in shorter time-frames, but close enough that it may be useful on the macro time-frame. If the current Asset/Big-Tech Bubble rhymes with history, look for DXY to continue upward into 110-120 range or higher over the next year or so as NASDAQ plummets back down to reality, e.g. somewhere around the 200 Month Moving Average. Then whenever DXY is crashing back down towards ~100 that may be a good signal that the bottom is in for equities.
TVC:IXIC
by RobBiddle
Nasdaq nearing close of head and shoulders?I have been watching this pattern on .IXIc develop for over a year, and with much negative news influencing the markets, it looks like we may be close to a bear reversal in the medium trend. The drawn pattern on NASDAQ shows almost identical two hump left shoulder. One property of a H&S pattern is symmetry, which seems to occur with the two humps on the right. The right shoulder just touched the neckline, but will likely encounter some sideways movement before continuing the downtrend to possibly 11500. I will be cautious on entering any long positions at this time.
TVC:IXICShort
by yousafkhan1976
1
Daily Market Update for 4/25Summary: Investor sentiment changed mid-day, reversing a gap-down open into gains across all major indexes by the end of the day. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, April 25, 2022 Facts: +1.29%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 98%, Body: 89% Green Good: Gains on higher volume, great closing range Bad: Lower high, lower low Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Piercing candle that opens gap-down but ends day with gain Advance/Decline: 0.94, slightly more declining than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.57%), DJI (+0.70%), RUT (+0.70%), VIX (-4.22%) Sector List: Technology (XLK +1.50%) and Communications (XLC +1.37%) at the top. Utilities (XLU -0.69%) and Energy (XLE -3.31%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Investor sentiment changed mid-day, reversing a gap-down open into gains across all major indexes by the end of the day. The Nasdaq closed the day with a +1.29% gain on higher volume than the previous day. The candle has an 89% green body sitting above a small lower wick and the day ended with a 98% closing range. The lower high and lower low continue a downtrend, but the piercing candle that starts with a gap-down and ends with gains could signal a reversal. There were slightly more declining than advancing stocks for the day. The other major indexes all have longer lower wicks as they dipped further after open before the Nasdaq led them higher. The Russell 2000 (RUT) ended the day with a +0.70% gain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) also advanced by +0.70%. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.57%. The VIX Volatility Index declined by -4.22%. Six of the eleven S&P 500 sectors ended the day with gains, and another ended the day flat. Growth sectors led the way with Technology (XLK +1.50%) and Communications (XLC +1.37%) having the best gains. Utilities (XLU -0.69%) and Energy (XLE -3.31%) were at the bottom of the sector list. The US Dollar index (DXY) continues to climb, rising +0.61% today. The US 30Y, 10Y, and 2Y Treasury Yields all declined. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices rose. Silver and Gold continue to drop sharply as the US dollar rises. Brent Oil ended the day near $102 a barrel. The put/call ratio (PCCE) remained above 1.0, ending the day at +1.027. That indicates that investors are hedging despite the gains in growth stocks today. The CNN Fear & Greed Index remains in the Fear range. Of the big six mega-caps, only Tesla (TSLA) declined. It's possible Tesla investors are worried about possible sales by Elon Musk to fund his purchase of Twitter. Alphabet (GOOG) led the gains in the group with a +3.04% advance. Alphabet was also the top overall mega-cap, followed by Novo Nordisk (NVO) which gained +2.73%. Big energy companies were at the bottom of the mega-cap list. Exxon Mobil (XOM) had the biggest loss, declining by -3.37% today. There was a lot of green in the Daily Update Growth List. Snowflake (SNOW) was at the top of the list, gaining +7.56%. There were only a handful of declining stocks, mostly Chinese companies. UP Fintech (TIGR) was at the bottom of the list, dropping by -2.94% today. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Tuesday will kick off with an update on Durable Goods Orders for March. After the market opens, we'll get New Home Sales for March. CB Consumer Confidence for April will also be published after the market open. In the afternoon is the Weekly API Crude Oil Stock update. Big tech kicks off earnings this week (With the exception of Tesla, which went early in order to announce on 4/20). Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOG) will report after the closing bell on Tuesday. In addition, Visa (V), PepsiCo (PEP), Novartis (NVS), United Parcel Service (UPS), Texas Instruments (TXN), HSBC (HSBC), General Electric (GE), Chubb (CB), 3M (MMM), Sherwin-Williams (SW), General Motors (GM), Chipotle (CMG), and Enphase (ENPH) report among many others. It is not just a long list of big companies reporting, but the diversity across sectors and markets means we will get a very real look at performance and, more importantly, outlook for corporate America in the current economic and geopolitical context. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq opened with a gap-down but then received support mid-day and marched higher, closing above the 13,000 support area. If the one-day trend line continues into Tuesday, it would mean a +1.37% advance. If the index returns to the five-day trend line, that will result in a -1.15% decline. The trend line from the 3/29 high points to a -3.20% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Did Elon Musk cause the market to reverse to the upside? That's what some think. It very well could be true. His purchase of Twitter may have turned sentiment toward buying growth stocks and carried the Nasdaq higher, followed by the other indexes. What matters now is the story that comes out of tomorrow's earnings reports and through the rest of this week. Investors will be watching closely the results, but even more so the underlying metrics for each business and the outlook for executives. They will get that story across several industries and from companies both big and small. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 4/22Summary: Indexes continued to dip as investors absorbed the likely 50-basis point interest rate hike coming in a few weeks. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, April 22, 2022 Facts: -2.55%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 3%, Body: 86% Red Good: Lower volume Bad: Drop below 13,000, closing range and advance/decline Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Large red body with small upper wick Advance/Decline: 0.24, four declining for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-2.77%), DJI (-2.82%), RUT (-2.55%), VIX (+24.38%) Sector List: Consumer Staples (XLP -1.57%) and Utilities (XLU -1.68%) at the top. Health (XLV -3.65%) and Materials (XLB -3.74%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Indexes continued to dip as investors absorbed the likely 50-basis point interest rate hike coming in a few weeks. The Nasdaq fell -2.55%, only pausing briefly at 13,000 before dipping below the support area. The only good news was that volume was lower than the previous day, signaling some slowdown in selling. But buyers were not present as seen by the 86% red body and 3% closing range on the candle. There were four declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) matched the Nasdaq's decline, also falling by -2.55%. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined by -2.77%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell by -2.82%. The VIX Volatility shot up by +24.38%. All eleven S&P 500 sectors declined. Even the best sector for today, Consumer Staples (XLP -1.57%), fell more than one percent. Utilities (XLU -1.68%) followed Consumer Staples at the top of the list. Health (XLV -3.65%) and Materials (XLB -3.74%) were the worst-hit sectors. The Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) for April was 59.7, exceeding the forecast of 58.2. The Services PMI came in lower than forecast at 54.7 compared to the expected 58.0. The US Dollar Index (DXY) hit another recent high, rising by +0.49% today. The US 30Y Treasury Yield rose today while the 10y and 2y yields declined slightly. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate bond prices declined. Silver and Gold prices both declined sharply as the USD dollar rose and scared off investors from the safe-haven metals. Brent Oil dipped to near $105 a barrel. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is up above 1.0, ending the day at 1.11. The CNN Fear & Greed index fell back into the Fear range. The NAAIM Money Manager Exposure index (measured on Wednesdays) rose to 74.05 after dropping to 63.29 last week. All big six mega-caps declined. Alphabet (GOOG) fell the most, declining by -4.26% today. Tesla (TSLA) held up the best, declining only -0.37%. Only one mega-cap gained. Alibaba (BABA) ended the day with a +0.58% advance. The worst mega-cap was Verizon (VZ) which declined by -5.64% and helped lead the rest of the market lower with a disappointing outlook during its earnings report this morning. Twitter (TWTR) topped the Daily Update Growth List with a +3.93% gain. Other gainers on the list were mostly Chinese stocks. Chewy (CHWY) was at the bottom of the list, declining by -6.76% today. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Coca-Cola (KO), Activision Blizzard (ATVI), and Whirlpool (WHR) are a few of the earnings reports to kick off a huge earnings calendar for the week. The remaining five of the big six mega-caps report next week along with several other reports that will be closely watched for outlook more important than results. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq just briefly picked up support at 13,000 before diving lower today. If the index returns to the trend line from the 3/29 high, that would meet up with the five-day trend line for a +1.29% gain on Monday. The one-day trend line points to a continued sell-off and a decline of -2.23% to start the week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up As a 50-basis point interest rate hike is nearly certain at this point, the good news is that the Fed (other than Bullard) are not entertaining a massive 75-basis point hike which hasn't happened since the 1990s. Take a breather this weekend. We all deserve one. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 4/21Summary: The Fed's Jerome Powell has spoken and a 50 basis point interest rate hike is practically certain. The day started out well but then equities slid as Treasury yields rose. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, April 21, 2022 Facts: -2.07%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 6%, Body: 79% Red Good: Higher high Bad: High volume distribution, long red body, advance/decline and low close range Highs/Lows: Higher high, Lower low Candle: Large red body under a longer upper wick, outside day Advance/Decline: 0.2, five declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-1.48%), DJI (-1.05%), RUT (-2.29%), VIX (+11.61%) Sector List: Consumer Staples (XLP -0.09%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.65%) at the top. Communications (XLC -2.85%) and Energy (XLE -3.17%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The Fed's Jerome Powell has spoken and a 50 basis point interest rate hike is practically certain. The day started out well but then equities slid as Treasury yields rose. The Nasdaq closed down by -2.07%. The intraday decline from the morning high was -3.91%. Ouch. A long upper wick sits above a 79% Red body that ends with a 6% closing range. Volume was higher than the previous day as five stocks declined for every advancing stock. Small caps had the worst decline, with the Russell 2000 (RUT) dropping by -2.29%. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell by -1.48% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined by -1.05%. The VIX Volatility Index rose by +11.62%. All eleven S&P 500 sectors declined. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.09%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.65%) ended the day at the top of the list while Communications (XLC -2.85%) and Energy (XLE -3.17%) had the most severe losses. The weekly Initial Jobless Claims came in at 184,000, slightly higher than the forecasted 180,000. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index read 17.6 compared to a forecast of 21.0. The more impactful news was likely Jerome Powell's confirmation that a 50 basis point hike was on the table for May. The US Dollar Index rose +0.28%. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields rose with the gap narrowing between long-term and short-term yields. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.972, its highest closing ratio since February. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back toward Fear. The NAAIM Money Manager Exposure index rose to 74.05 after dropping to 63.29 last week. The only of the big six to gain today was Tesla (TSLA) which please investors with earnings yesterday and advanced by +3.23%. Meta (FB) had the furthest fall, declining by -6.16%. Amazon (AMZN) declined by -3.70%. Only a handful of mega-caps gained today. Tesla was at the top of the list, followed by AbbVie (ABBV) which gained +1.16%. Facebook was at the bottom. The next worst was Nvidia (NVDA) which dropped by -6.05% today. The only stock in the Daily Update Growth List to gain was Twitter (TWTR) which ended the day with a +0.77% advance. SolarEdge (SEDG) and Enphase (ENPH) were at the bottom of the list with -9.75% and -12.31% declines. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Manufacturing and Services PMI numbers for April will be published in the morning. Verizon (VZ), American Express (AXP), and SAP (SAP) top the list of big companies reporting earnings tomorrow morning. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq fell sharply after starting the morning with gains that took it just above the 21d EMA and 50d MA. It then sold off the rest of the day to create a new weekly low. Returning to the five-day trend line would mean a +1.99% for Friday. If the one-day trend were to continue into tomorrow, that would mean a -4.37% decline. The trend line from the 3/29 high points to a -0.59% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up If you're tired of Fed officials speaking publicly and markets reacting severely, I have good news for you. They now enter a two-week quiet period until the Fed meeting in the first week of May. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 4/20Summary: Yields on longer-term treasuries dropped sharply today as did the US Dollar index. Growth stocks led the Nasdaq lower while the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed higher. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, April 20, 2022 Facts: -1.22%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 11%, Body: 84% Red Good: Higher high, higher low Bad: Mostly red body, closing range, higher volume on decline Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Mostly red body, barely visible wicks Advance/Decline: 0.75, more declining than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.06%), DJI (+0.71%), RUT (+0.37%), VIX (-4.91%) Sector List: Real Estate (XLRE +1.89%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +1.50%) at the top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.29%) and Communications (XLC -4.34%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Yields on longer-term treasuries dropped sharply today as did the US Dollar index. Growth stocks led the Nasdaq lower while the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed higher. The Nasdaq closed lower by -1.22% after starting the day in the green. The closing range of 11% and 84% red body show that selling dominated the day. There was higher volume on the decline and more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) was able to gain +0.71%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) gained by +0.37%. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined by -0.06%. The VIX Volatility Index continued lower, dropping by -4.91% today. The three growth sectors declined while the other eight of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained. Real Estate (XLRE +1.89%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +1.50%) were at the top of the sector list. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.29%) and Communications (XLC -4.34%) were at the bottom. Existing Home Sales for March were lower than forecast. The strong building permits and new home sales data from yesterday caused Timber prices to continue to move higher. Crude Oil Inventories were much lower than forecast, showing higher demand. The Fed Beige Books released in the afternoon showed slow steady growth but headwinds for companies on inflation and worker shortages. The US Dollar index (DXY) declined by -0.65%. The US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields declined sharply. The 2y yield declined as well, but not as much as longer-term notes. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices followed Treasury prices higher (yields lower, prices rise). Brent Oil remained at $106 a barrel. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.794. The CNN Fear & Greed Index remained Neutral. Of the big six mega-caps, only Microsoft (MSFT) gained today, advancing +0.37%. Meta (FB) had the biggest decline, dropping by -7.77% as it followed the Communications sector lower. Thermo Fisher (TMO) was the best mega-cap for the day, climbing by +2.96%. Meta was at the bottom of the list, followed by Disney (DIS) which lose -5.56%. The Daily Update Growth List only had two winners today. Twitter (TWTR) escaped the drawdown in the communications sector and gained +1.21% today to top the list. Probably most know who's at the bottom of the list. Netflix (NFLX) dropped by -35.12% today after losing subscribers for the first time in a decade. Tesla (TSLA) impressed investors in its earnings release and was up over 5% in after-hours trading. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Tomorrow will start with the weekly Initial Jobless Claims. Also before the market opens, we will get the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for April. Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak tomorrow. These will be his last comments before the quiet period preceding the May 3-4 Fed meeting. We can expect him to firm up a 50 basis point interest rate hike for May. Philip Morris (PM), Blackstone Group (BX), AT&T (T), ABB (ABB), Snap (SNAP), KeyCorp (KEY), and American Airlines (AAL) are some of the earnings reports for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq set a higher high today before losing the opening rally and selling the rest of the day. If the one-day and five-day trend lines continue, we can expect a -0.16% decline for Thursday. The trend line from the 3/29 high leads to a -2.41% decline for Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Netflix reported a 200,000 net loss in subscribers and projected another 2 million loss for the next quarter. That sent the stock price down by -35% and weighed down the Communications sector with bad sentiment which likely rippled through growth sectors as well. Now we have a good report from Tesla which should help with investor sentiment. And it remains to be seen if Netflix's decline in subscribers is isolated from the leader, or will other streaming services report declines also. Tomorrow we should see Jerome Powell firm up expectations for the rate hike coming in May. That should provide some stability for markets, removing (or confirming) fears of a larger hike which were stoked by various Fed officials over the past week. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 4/19Summary: Strong earnings reports thus far in the quarter helped investor confidence in the market and push indexes higher today. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, April 19, 2022 Facts: +2.15%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 93%, Body: 85% Green Good: Solid green candle on higher volume, higher high, higher low, closing range Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Mostly green body with small upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: 1.93, almost two advancing for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+1.61%), DJI (+1.45%), RUT (+2.04%), VIX (-3.61%) Sector List: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.90%) and Real Estate (XLRE +2.10%) at the top. Utilities (XLU +0.65%) and Energy (XLE -0.81%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Strong earnings reports thus far in the quarter helped investor confidence in the market and push indexes higher today. The Nasdaq rose +2.15% on higher volume than the previous day. The 93% closing range comes above a thick 85% green body. A short lower wick formed in the early morning while an even shorter upper wick formed at the close. Buying was dominant throughout the day as two stocks advanced for every declining stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) also performed well, climbing by +2.04% today. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +1.61% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) advanced +1.45%. The VIX Volatility Index remains elevated but declined by -3.61% today. Ten of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained today. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.90%) and Real Estate (XLRE +2.10%) ended the day as the top sectors. Energy (XLE -0.81%) was the only declining sector. Both Building Permits and Housing Starts exceeded the forecast for March. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock was lower than expected, but overall oil prices dropped on fears of slower growth. The US Dollar Index (DXY) continued to rise, gaining +0.18% today. US 20y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all rose. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices dropped. Silver and Gold prices fell sharply. Brent Oil dropped to $1.07 / barrel after topping $110 earlier this week. The put/call ratio (PCCE) declined to 0.782. The CNN Fear & Greed Index is at Neutral. The big six all gained today. Amazon (AMZN) had the biggest gain, rising by +3.49% and closing above its 21d EMA and 50d MA. Nike (NKE) was the top mega-cap for the day, topping Amazon's gain with a +4.12% advance. Pfizer (PFE) ended the day at the bottom of the list again, declining by -3.20% today. The Daily Update Growth List did very well today with only three stocks declining, two of them being Chinese stocks which all underperformed today. Roku (ROKU) was the top stock of the day, climbing by +8.22%. However, the stock was down after hours by almost 6%, likely because of Netflix's bad news. At the bottom of the growth list is Twitter (TWTR) which declined by -4.73% today. Netflix (NFLX) dropped -25% in after-hours trading. The company had the first subscriber shrinkage in over a decade. That's going to have an impact on the Communications sector tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead After the market opens on Wednesday, we will get Existing Home Sales data for March. Crude Oil Inventories will be released shortly after that. Beige Books will be released from the Fed in the afternoon. Tesla (TSLA), Procter & Gamble (PG), ASML (ASML), and Abbott Labs (ABT) are some of the earnings reports coming on Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq rose throughout the day but stopped short of the 50d MA. If the one-day trend line continues into Wednesday, the index could rise over the 50d MA and 21d MA, ending the day with a +1.11% gain. If the index returns to the five-day trend line, that would mean a -1.35% decline. The trend line from the 3/29 high points to a -3.58% decline, but that seems unlikely given the current chart pattern. Some surprise bad news could change that. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The Nasdaq has been moving sideways, but within a wide trading range, for the past few sessions. Could this finally be the breakout we needed? We need to break from that range first which the top is around 13,685. Then it would help if we can close above the 50d MA and 21d EMA. Do all that on higher volume and with a high advance/decline ratio and it would build a lot of confidence for a move toward the 200d MA. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 4/18Summary: Stock indexes receded as treasury yields rose on the emerging likelihood of a recession in the next two years. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, April 18, 2022 Facts: -0.14%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 57%, Body: 7% Green Good: Closing range, lower volume on decline Bad: Lower high, lower low, continued downtrend Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Spinning top, thin body in middle of candle shows indecision Advance/Decline: 0.35, almost three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.02%), DJI (-0.11%), RUT (-0.74%), VIX (-2.33%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +1.47%) and Financials (XLF +0.60%) at the top. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.82%) and Health (XLV -1.10%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Stock indexes receded as treasury yields rose on the emerging likelihood of a recession in the next two years. The Nasdaq declined -0.14%, ending the day near where it opened. That created a spinning top candle where the body is thin (7% green) and in the middle of long upper and lower wicks. Volume was lower than the previous day, and also indicated indecision as the index chopped up and down. There were almost three declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) nearly ended the day positive after a late rally, but the result was a -0.02% decline for the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined by -0.11%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) dropped by -0.74%. The VIX Volatility Index fell by -2.33%. Five of the eleven S&P 500 sectors advanced. Energy (XLE +1.47%) and Financials (XLF +0.60%) were at the top of the list. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.82%) and Health (XLV -1.10%) were the biggest losing sectors. While defensive sectors were at the bottom of the list, the growth sectors of Technology (XLK +0.33%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.30%) ended in the positive. The US Dollar index (DXY) gained +0.32%. US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields rose while the 2y Yield declined. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices dropped. Copper Futures rose sharply. Brent Oil continues to climb, closing above $110 today. The put/call ratio rose to 0.794. The CNN Fear & Greed Index remains in between the Fear and Neutral range. Five of the big six mega-caps rose. Apple (AAPL) was the only of the six to decline today, falling by -0.13% but recovering some losses later in the session. Tesla (TSLA) had the biggest gain, rising by +1.96%. I moved Facebook (FB) back into the big six as its market cap remained above Nvidia (NVDA) for the past two weeks. Bank of America Corp (BAC) was the top mega-cap for the day, climbing +3.41% after topping analyst estimates in its early morning earnings release. Pfizer (PFE) was at the bottom of the list, losing -2.41% and dragging the health sector lower. Twitter (TWTR) rose to the top of the Daily Update Growth List, climbing +7.48% in another wild swing as the Elon Musk drama continues to unfold. Niu Technologies (NIU) was at the bottom of a long list of losers, declining by -6.72% to end up in the bottom spot. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Building Permits and Housing Starts data for March arrive in the morning before the market opens. The weekly API Crude Oil Stock will be reported at the end of the day. J&J (JNJ), Netflix (NFLX), Lockheed Martin (LMT), IBM (IBM), Halliburton (HAL), Fifth Third (FITB), and Hasbro (HAS) are some of the earnings reports to watch for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq continued its decline today but is still well above the 13,000 support area. The five-day and one-day trend lines point to a -0.02% decline for Tuesday. If the index returns to the trend line from the 3/29 high, that would mean a -1.58% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up If the indexes want to break out of the current decline, it's a good sign that Energy and Financials are leading us higher. These often lead at the start of upcycles and then growth and small-caps follow in later rotations. Sustaining any uptrend will come down to how the earnings season plays out. Bank of America was a good surprise this morning. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 4/13Summary: Investors found reasons to be optimistic despite soaring inflation and a hawkish Fed. Oil prices soared again, but that was not enough the dampen the mood. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, April 13, 2022 Facts: +2.03%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 89%, Body: 83% Green Good: Closing range, steady climb through day, advance/decline ratio Bad: Lower high, volume lower on gains Highs/Lows: Lower high, Higher low Candle: Inside day, thick green body, slightly longer upper wick Advance/Decline: 2.07, more than two advancing for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+1.12%), DJI (+1.01%), RUT (+1.92%), VIX (-10.06%) Sector List: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.49%) and Technology (XLK +1.61%) at the top. Financials (XLF +0.00%) and Utilities (XLU -0.20%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Investors found reasons to be optimistic despite soaring inflation and a hawkish Fed. Oil prices soared again, but that was not enough the dampen the mood. The Nasdaq advanced +2.03% on lower volume than the previous day. The candle has an 83% green body and an 89% closing range. The small upper wick formed in a dip just before closing as some investors likely took profits from a day of good gains. There were more than two advancing stocks for every declining stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) climbed +1.92%. The S&P 500 (SPX) rose by +1.12%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) ended the day +1.01% higher. The VIX Volatility Index fell by -10.06%. Ten of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained today. Growth sectors led the list with Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.49%) and Technology (XLK +1.61%) at the top. Financials (XLF +0.00%) and Utilities (XLU -0.20%) were at the bottom of the sector list. The Produce Price Index rose higher than expected. The index rose 1.4% in March compared to a forecast of 1.1%. Crude Oil Inventories were higher than expected but Gasoline inventories were lower than expected. The US Dollar index (DXY) finally declined after a few weeks of steady climbing. It fell by -0.46% today. The 30y Treasury Yield remained flat while the 10y and 2y yields declined. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices tracked short-term treasuries higher. Silver and Gold prices continued higher. Brent Oil is back over $105, ending the day at $108 a barrel. The put/call ratio (PCCE) increased to 0.716. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back toward Neutral. All big six mega-caps advanced. Tesla (TSLA) led the group higher with a +3.59% gain. Nvidia (NVDA) and Amazon (AMZN) also gained over +3%. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) was the top mega-cap for the day, gaining +4.17% as the whole semiconductor sector rallied. AbbVie (ABBV) was the biggest mega-cap loser, declining by -5.00%. Only two stocks in the Daily Update Growth List declined. Zscaler (ZS) topped the list, climbing by +8.17% today. PayPal (PYPL) declined by -2.85%, ending up at the bottom of the list. Chewy (CHWY) was the other declining stock in the list, falling by -0.46%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Friday is a holiday for markets in the US. That means Thursday will be the monthly options expiration and it's a big one. Nearly $500 billion in single-stock options contracts will expire. Tomorrow will kick off with Retail Sales data for March and the weekly Initial Jobless Claims. Later in the morning, we'll get a look at Michigan Consumer Expectations and Consumer Sentiment. Tomorrow's earning reports include Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), UnitedHealth (UNH), Wells Fargo (WFC), Morgan Stanley (MS), Goldman Sachs (GS), Citigroup (C ), and U.S. Bancorp (USB). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq heading back toward the 50d moving average but was unable to clear yesterday's high. If the one-day trend line continues, it would mean a +1.74% gain for Thursday. The trend line from the 3/29 high and the five-day trend line point to a -2.42% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Recent monthly expiration days have meant declines for indexes. Will investor optimism hold up tomorrow and take indexes higher? Or will options pressures be too much and we dip lower? Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 4/12Summary: We have our inflation data now as Consumer Price Indexes for March were released today. Large-cap stocks declined while small caps advanced. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, April 12, 2022 Facts: -0.30%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 15%, Body: 58% Red Good: Not much, maybe higher high Bad: Closing range, lower low, higher volume on decline Highs/Lows: Higher high, Lower low Candle: Outside day, long upper wick over red body Advance/Decline: 0.56, almost two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.34%), DJI (-0.26%), RUT (+0.33%), VIX (-0.45%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +1.66%) and Utilities (XLU +0.38%) at the top. Health (XLV -0.97%) and Financials (XLF -1.09%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview We have our inflation data now as Consumer Price Indexes for March were released today. Large-cap stocks declined while small caps advanced. The Nasdaq declined by -0.30%. Volume was higher than the previous day. The closing range of 15% comes under a 58% red body that is topped by a long upper wick. The upper wick formed in an early rally that failed and turned into distribution the rest of the day. A short lower wick formed as the index recovered some losses late in the session. There were almost two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) rallied +2.38% in the morning but gave back the gains to end the day with a +0.33% advance. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined by -0.34%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lost -0.26%. The VIX Volatility Index declined by -0.45%. Five of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained today, dominated by cyclical sectors. Energy (XLE +1.66%) and Utilities (XLU +0.38%) were the best two sectors. Health (XLV -0.97%) and Financials (XLF -1.09%) had the biggest declines. As expected, soaring oil prices put the Consumer Price Index data at its highest year-over-year growth since 1981. However, Core CPI, which excludes oil and food items, rose less than expected. Could this be the start of a turning point in inflation? The US Dollar index (DXY) continued its rise, climbing by +0.34% today. The 30y Treasury Yield advanced just slightly, but the 10y and 2y yields declined. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices rose. Silver and Gold continued to rise. Brent Oil briefly topped $105 again but ended just below at $104.70. The put/call ratio (PCCE) declined to 0.710. The CNN Fear & Greed Index remains in the Fear range. Checking in on the big six mega-caps, only Tesla (TSLA) and Apple (AAPL) gained today, advancing +1.13% and +1.15%. Nvidia (NVDA) had the biggest decline, losing -1.88%. Exxon Mobile (XOM), Chevron (CVX), and Shell (SHEL) topped the mega-cap list with the first two gaining over 2% each. Danaher Corporation just barely held onto its mega-cap status ($200b market cap) after declining by -3.57% today and ending up at the bottom of the list. There were some decent gains in the Daily Update Growth List, but most of the list declined. Cloudflare (NET) and CrowdStrike (CRWD) topped the list with +3.90% and +3.19% gains. The biggest loser on the list was Twitter (TWTR) which fell by -5.38%, giving back some of its recent advances. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Tomorrow will bring the Producer Price Index data for March which is another take on inflation. Produce Prices are forward-looking as rising prices are passed along to consumers in the future. Tomorrow kicks off earnings season for big banks as JPMorgan (JPM) and BlackRock (BLK) report. In addition, Fastenal (FAST), Delta Air Lines (DAL), and Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) will report. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The outside day for the Nasdaq did not test any moving averages or support/resistance areas. The trend line from the 3/29 high and the five-day trend line point to a -0.46% decline. If the one-day trend continues, that would mean a -2.87% decline for Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The inflation data is out there and is one less thing for investors to fret over. The producer price index data will be an interesting number to watch tomorrow. The February index was expected to be 0.6% but came in at 0.2%. March is forecast for 0.5%. Another surprise that puts PPI nearer to 0.25% would be good news. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 4/11Summary: Investors sold both equities and bonds ahead of CPI data coming this week that's expected to show record-high inflation and more motivation for the Fed to act aggressively. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, April 11, 2022 Facts: -2.18%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 4% (w/gap), Body: 74% Red Good: Nothing Bad: Gap-down, closing range, advance/decline ratio Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Gap-down at open, small upper wick, no lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.35, almost three declining for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-1.69%), DJI (-1.19%), RUT (-0.71%), VIX (+15.17%) Sector List: Industrials (XLI -0.32%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -0.41%) at the top. Technology (XLK -2.52%) and Energy (XLE -3.01%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Investors sold both equities and bonds ahead of CPI data coming this week that's expected to show record-high inflation and more motivation for the Fed to act aggressively. The Nasdaq declined -2.18% by the end of the day, opening with a gap-down. The closing range of 4% and higher volume than the previous day shows a clear distribution day. The candle is 74% red with a small upper wick and a barely visible lower wick. There were almost three declining stocks for every advancing stock. Small-caps held up the best with the Russell 2000 (RUT) only declining by -0.71%. The S&P 500 (SPX) dropped by -1.69% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell by -1.19%. The VIX Volatility Index rose by +15.17%. All eleven S&P 500 sectors dipped today. Industrials (XLI -0.32%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -0.41%) were at the top of the list while Technology (XLK -2.52%) and Energy (XLE -3.01%) had the biggest losses. The US dollar index (DXY) advanced by +0.14%. US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields advanced, hitting their highest point since early 2019. The 2y Treasury Yield declined. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined sharply. Silver and Gold gained. Brent Oil dropped below $100 / barrel. The put/call ratio (PCCE) climbed to 0.863. The CNN Fear & Greed index fell back into the Fear zone. All big six mega-caps declined with Nvidia (NVDA) leading the way, dropping by -5.20%. Tesla (TSLA) was the last of the six to stay above key moving averages but dropped below its 21d EMA today. Facebook's market cap rose above Nvidia last week, so it may be time to update the big six list again. Only four stocks in the mega-cap list gained today. Novartis (NVS) had the top gain, advancing +1.10%. Microsoft, Tesla, and Nvidia were at the bottom of the list. Despite the market losses, there were quite a few gainers in the Daily Update Growth List. Draft Kings (DKNG) had the biggest gain, advancing +2.99% today. Enphase Energy (ENPH) was at the bottom of the list with a -3.72% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Consumer Price Index data arrives in the morning and is expected to be 8.4% year-over-year. There is a 10-year note auction in the afternoon. CarMax (KMX) could be an interesting earnings report to watch for as remarks about the price of used cars could be useful to how inflation is tracking. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq gapped down at open today and moved lower. The next support area to test would be the round number 13,000. The five-day and one-day trend lines point to a -0.04% decline for tomorrow. The trend line from the 3/29 high ends with a -0.99% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Tomorrow depends on the CPI data. If it's near or better than expected, we could see a bounce in the indexes. That bounce may be short-lived however as analysts don't expect the Fed to back off on aggressive action given it's a mid-term election year. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 4/8Summary: Friday was a continuation of this choppy week that saw more Fed officials take a hawkish stance toward policy to get inflation under control. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, April 8, 2022 Facts: -1.34%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 10%, Body: 69% Red Good: Higher low, lower volume on decline Bad: Lower high, closing range of 10% Highs/Lows: Lower high, Higher low Candle: Inside day, red body in between tiny upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: 0.42, more than two declining for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.27%), DJI (+0.40%), RUT (-0.76%), VIX (-1.81%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +2.75%) and Financials (XLF +1.01%) at the top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.92%) and Technology (XLK -1.40%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Friday was a continuation of this choppy week that saw more Fed officials take a hawkish stance toward policy to get inflation under control. The Nasdaq declined by -1.34%. Volume was lower than the previous day. The candle has a 69% red body in between small upper and lower wicks. The closing range of 10% put the close below the 50d moving average. There were more than two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) advanced +0.40%, helped by big energy and big finance companies. The S&P 500 (SPX) receded by -0.27%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined by -0.76%. The VIX Volatility Index fell by -1.81% after hitting higher levels earlier in the week. Seven of the eleven S&P 500 sectors ended the day in the green. Energy (XLE +2.75%) and Financials (XLF +1.01%) were the best two sectors. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.92%) and Technology (XLK -1.40%) led the losing sectors. There were no surprises in the World Agricultural Supply and Estimates (WASDE) report. Investors already know about the crisis in the food chain caused by the war in Ukraine. The US Dollar Index (DXY) gained another +0.09%, ending the week at its highest point since May 2020. Treasury Yields continued higher as bond investors sell-off notes ahead of the Fed reducing the balance sheet. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices continued to track lower. Brent Oil moved slightly higher but is staying near the $100 level. The put/call ratio (PCCE) declined to 0.786. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved closer to Neutral. All of the big six declined, led by Nvidia (NVDA) which fell by -4.50%. Tesla (TSLA) is the only of the six to remain above moving averages, despite declining by -3% today. Home Depot (HD) was the top mega-cap today, advancing +2.76%. The stock had been underperforming the market, including the Consumer Staples sector, so possibly investors are looking for a bargain. Nvidia was at the bottom of the mega-cap list, followed by Tesla. Only four stocks in the Daily Update Growth List gained. RH was the biggest winner, advancing +2.43% and followed by Fastly (FSLY) which rose +2.20%. Lemonade (LMND) landed at the bottom of the list with a -8.34% drop today. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There is not much economic news to kick off on Monday, but Tuesday will bring the Consumer Price Index data for March. The week will also start off light with earnings reports and then pick up with Finance firms reporting later in the week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq dropped below the 50d moving average in the morning, recovered mid-day but then closed below that line to end the week. The trend line from the 3/29 high and the one-day trend line point to a -0.21%. The five-day trend line ends with a -1.95% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up There wasn't much news to change investor sentiment in either direction today, so more of the same continued into Friday. Equities chopped around while bonds sold off. The volatility will continue until more agreement is established on how quickly the Fed will reduce the balance sheet and how much they will increase interest rates. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Daily Market Update for 4/7Summary: Stocks weren't sure what to do on Thursday, but Bonds sold off as investors continue to digest what Fed actions may be in store for later this year. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, April 7, 2022 Facts: +0.06%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 72%, Body: 12% Green Good: High closing range Bad: Lower high, lower low, dip below 50d MA Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Thin green body above a long lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.48, more than two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.43%), DJI (+0.25%), RUT (-0.35%), VIX (-2.49%) Sector List: Health (XLV +1.92%) and Energy (XLE +1.31%) at the top. Real Estate (XLRE -0.82%) and Communications (XLC -0.87%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Stocks weren't sure what to do on Thursday, but Bonds sold off as investors continue to digest what Fed actions may be in store for later this year. The Nasdaq recovered from an intraday dip to close +0.06% higher. The candle has a 12% body in the upper half of the candle. It's above a long lower wick that formed in the first half of the day as the index plunged below the 50d MA. Prices recovered in the afternoon before the Nasdaq hit resistance at the 21d EMA and formed a short upper wick before close. The closing range was good at 72%, but there were more than two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) was the best index today, advancing by +0.43%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) climbed by +0.25%. Small-caps did not do well with the Russell 2000 (RUT) declining by -0.35%. The VIX Volatility Index fell by -2.49%. Seven of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained. Health (XLV +1.92%) and Energy (XLE +1.31%) were at the top of the list. Real Estate (XLRE -0.82%) and Communications (XLC -0.87%) had the biggest losses. The weekly Initial Jobless Claims were less than forecast. 166,000 claims were counted against the expectation of 200,000. The US Dollar index (DXY) continued higher, climbing by +0.13% today. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all rose. The gap between the 10y and 2y continues to widen. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices fell for another day. Brent Oil dipped below $100 but then closed the day just above that mark. The put/call ratio (PCCE) declined to 0.799. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back toward Neutral. The NAAIM Money Manager Exposure Index rose to 83.41 from 79.72 the previous week. Three of the big six mega-caps ended the day with gains. Tesla (TSLA) gained +1.10%, followed by Microsoft (MSFT) and Apple (AAPL) which gained +0.62% and +0.18%. Pfizer (PFE) was the top mega-cap, followed by other Health sector stocks. Pfizer gained +4.33% today. Pfizer announces the acquisition of ReViral, a respiratory virus drugmaker. At the bottom of the mega-cap list was Alibaba (BABA). Chewy (CHWY) was the top stock in the Daily Update Growth List. Chinese stocks dominated the bottom of the list with Ehang Holdings (EH) falling by -7.17% to land at the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, published by the USDA, will be published at noon tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq dipped below the 50d MA mid-day before recovering and finding resistance at the 21d EMA before close. If the one-day trend line continues, that would mean a +0.38% gain on Friday. The trend line from the 3/29 high and the five-day trend line point to -0.98% and -1.47% declines. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The market is still sorting out what interest rate hikes and the balance-sheet runoff means for the rest of 2022. If the bond market is an indication, then we will likely see more volatility in equities, especially with growth stocks. Higher yields and the strengthening US dollar will especially put pressure on large multinationals that depend on repatriated revenues. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 4/6Summary: A look at the Fed meeting minutes didn't do much to alleviate investor worries over inflation and near-term Fed actions. That created a wildly volatile day for equities while the US Dollar strengthened and Treasury yields rose. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, April 6, 2022 Facts: -2.22%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 26% (w/gap), Body: 47% Red Good: Recovery from the intraday lows Bad: Gap down at open, low closing range, high volume on decline Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Gap down, longer lower wick under a 50% red body. Advance/Decline: 0.29, more than three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.97%), DJI (-0.42%), RUT (-1.42%), VIX (+5.09%) Sector List: Utilities (XLU +1.99%) and Health (XLV +1.52%) at the top. Technology (XLK -2.37%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.55%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview A look at the Fed meeting minutes didn't do much to alleviate investor worries over inflation and near-term Fed actions. That created a wildly volatile day for equities while the US Dollar strengthened and Treasury yields rose. The Nasdaq declined by -2.22%. Volume was higher than the previous day. The index opened with a gap down to start below the 21d EMA, continued lower until getting support at the 50d MA and recovering some of the loss. The candle has a 26% closing range, considering the full range from yesterday's low to include the gap. There were more than three declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) lost -1.42%. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell by -0.97%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined by -0.42%. The VIX Volatility Index rose another +5.09%. Five of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained for the day with Utilities (XLU +1.99%) and Health (XLV +1.52%) performing the best. Growth sectors led markets lower. Technology (XLK -2.37%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.55%) were at the bottom of the sector list. Crude Oil Inventories were higher than expected, helping Crude Oil futures to drop. The US Dollar index (DXY) rose to +0.14%. US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields rose while the 2y yield declined. That continued to widen the gap after the yields inverted briefly last week. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices continue to drop. Brent Oil dropped to $101. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.897. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back into the Fear range. The big six mega-cap charts were crushed by the sell-off. Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Amazon (AMZN), and Nvidia (NVDA) all broke below key moving averages. Only Apple (AAPL) and Tesla (TSLA) remain above the three moving averages I track. Nvidia had the biggest drop, declining by -5.88% while Apple faired the best, declining only -1.85%. Eli Lilly (LLY) along with the rest of the Health sector did well. LLY topped the mega-cap list with a +4.56% gain. Nvidia and Tesla were at the bottom of the mega-cap list. All stocks in the Daily Update Growth List declined. Twitter (TWTR) had the smallest decline, falling only -0.41%. The biggest declines were from Beyond Meat (BYND) and Cloudflare (NET), which both fell over 8%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Tomorrow will kick off with the weekly Initial Jobless Claims report. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen as well as several Fed members are scheduled to speak throughout the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq opened the day below the 21d EMA and continued lower before getting support at the 50d MA. The trend line from the 3/29 high, the five-day trend line, and the one-day trend line all point to a +0.30% advance for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It seems that the Fed will shed $95 billion a month from the balance sheet and raise interest rates 225 more basis points before the end of the year. That will be three 50 point increases and three 25 point increases. The good news, is now we know. The bad news is that the impact on your favorite equities may not be over yet. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Nasdaq Composite extreme panic and double bottom Nasdaq Composite is in extreme panic mode right now, the investors seem to have perceived the possible Russia-Ukraine War as an end-of-world scenario. They have clearly forgotten that major wars have mostly been beneficial for American stocks, e.g. how WW2 made DJIA skyrocket. Moreover, the coming rate hike at 16 Mar 2022 will definitely scare a lot of investors into panic selling. That being said, I still believe IXIC will bounce back from 13000 and form a double bottom for the short term. IXIC will bounce back and test the 0.618 resistance at 15021. After failing to break above 15000, IXIC will jump into panic mode again with the aid of rate hike scare. The bottom will emerge in May or June around 11000. If the panic is extreme enough, IXIC might test the strong support of 10000. I selected 'short' but I would never advise shorting the indexes. Buying the bottom is a much safer and more profitable strategy in the long run. Due to the excellent fundamentals e.g. lowest Amercan unemployment in decades, this temporary panic is not the end of the long term bullish trend. IXIC will consolidate between 11000 and 16000 this year, then skyrocket again in 2023 and 2024.
TVC:IXICShort
by MarcusAu
3
Daily Market Update for 4/5Summary: Brainard turns hawkish and sucks the energy out of the market. Equities dropped as yields soared. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, April 5, 2022 Facts: -2.26%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 11%, Body: 86% Red Good: Nothing Bad: Lower high, lower low, closing range Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Mostly red body, tiny upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: 0.24, 4 declining for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-1.26%), DJI (-0.80%), RUT (-2.36%), VIX (+13.25%) Sector List: Utilities (XLU +0.63%) and Health (XLV +0.21%) at the top. Technology (XLK -2.11%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.34%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Brainard turns hawkish and sucks the energy out of the market. Equities dropped as yields soared. The Nasdaq declined by -2.26%. Volume was higher than the previous day. The lower high and lower low as well as the low closing range all mark a bearish day of distribution. The red body covers 86% of the candle and leaves behind an 11% closing range. There were more than four declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined the most, losing -2.36$. The S&P 500 (SPX) dropped by -1.26%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost -0.80%. The VIX Volatility Index rose +13.25%. Only four of the eleven S&P 500 (SPX) sectors, all defensive sectors. Utilities (XLU +0.63%) and Health (XLV +0.21%) were the top gainers. Technology (XLK -2.11%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.34%) had the most significant declines. Services and non-Manufacturing PMI indexes were slightly lower than expected. The trade balance also showed a more negative picture than forecast, but not too far off the expectation. The US Dollar index (DXY) rose by +0.50%. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all rose but the yield curve continues to recover from the temporary inversion last week. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined sharply. Brent Oil is hovering near $105 a barrel. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.753. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved toward the Fear range but remains close to Neutral. All big six meg-caps declined. Nvidia (NVDA) declined by -5.22%, closing below its 21d EMA. Amazon (AMZN) lost -2.55%, dropping back below its 200d MA. The other four remain above their moving average lines but are showing the same volatility as the rest of the market. United Health (UNH) was at the top of the mega-cap list with a +1.52% gain. Alibaba (BABA) was at the bottom of the list, declining by -5.53% today. Alibaba topped the list yesterday. Only two stocks in the Daily Update Growth List, RH (RH) and Twitter (TWTR) ended the day with gains. RH gained +7.10% after Josh Brown of Ritholtz doubled his position in the company. Beyond Meat (BYND) was at the bottom of the list, dropping by -7.85%. The stock had plenty of company as more than half of the list declined more than 5%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead After the market opens on Wednesday, we'll get the weekly update on Crude Oil Inventories. The Meeting Minutes from the most recent FOMC gathering will be released in the afternoon, giving investors more detail into the conversations around inflation and the proposed Fed response. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq lost support at 14,500 on the economic data and then descended further after Brainard's public comments on inflation and the Fed response. If the index is to return to the trend line from the 3/14 low, it would require a +4.34% advance. That is not likely to happen in just one day. The five-day trend line is pointing to a +0.26% advance for Wednesday. If the one-day trend line continues, the index will test the 21d EMA with a possible decline of -1.51%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Why did Lael Brainard's hawkish views cause so much turmoil in the markets? She's considered one of the most dovish of the Fed governors. So it was a big deal when she said the Fed should draw down the balance sheet at a rapid pace. It also adds more evidence to the mix that the Fed will also raise interest rates by 50 basis points next month, compared to the 25 basis points last month. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321