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Nasdaq (IXIC) | The best scenario for the fallHello traders, Nasdaq (IXIC) in daily timeframe , this analysis has been prepared in daily timeframe but has been published for a better view in 2 day timeframe. In this index, the waves have ended in a higher stage than in other indicators and have started to correct in a higher stage. In this index, waves 1, 2 and 3 are over and correction for wave 4 has started. If we want to compare Wave 4 with Wave 2, we must say that Wave 4 will have a shallow correction, but its current structure is not like this and it gives the possibility of deepening. Wave 4 is likely to form in the form of a zigzag , and this zigzag will take a long time to complete like a flat. We are still inside wave a of this zigzag and we think that wave a will be completed on Fibo 0.38 and this descent should be done before the range of 14186, otherwise there will be a possibility of structural change. 🙏If you have an idea that helps me provide a better analysis, I will be happy to write in the comments🙏 ❤️Please, support this idea with a like and comment!❤️
TVC:IXICShort
by mahdisoltaninjad
Daily Market Update for 1/26Summary: Jerome Powell says Inflation is bad and possibly getting worse. While the initial release from the Fed meeting met expectations, which predicted an interest rate hike in March, markets turned fearful again when comments from Powell showed much more concern than anticipated. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, January 26, 2022 Facts: +0.02%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 25%, Body: 54% Red Good: Higher high and held onto a gain for the day Bad: Lost intraday momentum to make a lower low Highs/Lows: Higher high, Lower low Candle: Outside day, equal size upper and lower wicks surround a red body Advance/Decline: 0.5, two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.15%), DJI (-0.38%), RUT (-1.38%), VIX (+2.57%) Sector List: Technology (XLK +0.59%) and Financials (XLF +0.26%) at the top. Communications (XLC -1.46%) and Real Estate (XLRE -1.66%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Jerome Powell says Inflation is bad and possibly getting worse. While the initial release from the Fed meeting met expectations, which predicted an interest rate hike in March, markets turned fearful again when comments from Powell showed much more concern than anticipated. The Nasdaq barely held onto the daily gain, advancing just +0.02% after being up +3.42% intraday. Volume was higher thanks to the volatility. The 54% red body sits in between equal size upper and lower wicks. The upper wick formed from the intraday gains while the lower wick formed during the fear-induced sell-off. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell -0.15%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lost -0.38%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined -1.38%. The VIX Volatility Index was on the decline but reversed to its highest close since one year ago, when the Fed also caused panic among investors. Technology (XLK +0.59%) and Financials (XLF +0.26%) were the only two sectors to hold onto gains for the day. Communications (XLC -1.46%) and Real Estate (XLRE -1.66%) ended at the bottom of the list. After the Jerome Powell speech all sectors sold off, but the defensive sectors of Utilities (XLU -0.82%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -0.76%) had the smallest declines. The day started off with mixed economic news. The Goods Trade Balance (Dec) show the US was importing far more than it was exporting. Analysts expected a -96.10B imbalance but the actual was -100.96B. New Home Sales for December outpaced expectations. There were 811,000 sales vs the expected 760,000. Crude Oil Inventories showed less demand than forecasted. The biggest economic news for the day was from the Fed. They confirmed a timeline for March to start increasing interest rates and begin reducing the balance sheet. That initial information was Ok with the market, causing a short rally. The rally was ended by Jerome Powell's speech which raised concern about a worsening situation with inflation. The US Dollar index (DXY) rose +0.54% for the day. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all rose while the gap between long term and short term treasuries narrowed. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined sharply. Gold and Silver both dropped, relative to the dollars increase. The put/call ratio rose to 0.758. The CNN Fear & Greed index continued to move further into the Fear range. Microsoft (MSFT) outperformed the other largest mega-caps. After beating earnings expectations and providing a positive surprise for 2022 guidance, the company was up +6.76% intraday. Microsoft held onto a +2.85% gain. Alphabet (GOOGL) also closed the day in the positive, gaining +1.81%. Apple (AAPL) declined -0.06% and Amazon (AMZN) was down -0.80%. Broadcom Inc (AVGO) was the top mega-cap today, winning some favorable analyst praise and a +4.20% advance. Alibaba (BABA) was at the bottom of the mega-cap list, losing -4.84%. The Daily Update Growth List lost a lot of gainers after the Fed meeting, but some held on to finish in the green. The top performer was Draft Kings (DKNG) which gained +5.23% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to equal weight. FUTU Holdings (FUTU) declined -7.36% to end up at the bottom of the growth list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Tomorrow morning will start with the Durable Goods Orders data for December. We'll also get a reading on GDP for Q4 of 2021. The weekly jobless claims data will be available before the market opens and Pending Home Sales for December will print after the market opens. Apple (AAPL) is the big earnings report for tomorrow. Will the positive earnings week continue? In addition to Apple, Visa (V), Mastercard (MA), Comcast (CMCSA), McDonald's (MCD), SAP (SAP), Atlassian (TEAM), Western Digital (WD), and Southwest Airlines (LUV) are among many companies reporting earnings on Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq rallied today but then gave up the gains to close just above yesterday's close. The one-day trend line points to a -1.10% decline for tomorrow. The five-day trend line and the trend line from the 1/12 high point to a -2.47% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Shock is never a good thing for investors and Jerome Powell's comments today set off nerves driving selling in the late afternoon. Now that the market is closed, analysts can look closer at his comments and reassess what they think the Fed's timeline is for interest rate hikes and reducing the balance sheet. We'll see what the institutional opinion is in tomorrow's market moves. After an inside day, following by a volatile outside day, the expectation for tomorrow is Sideways. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Daily Market Update for 1/25Summary: Markets were lower on Tuesday as investors awaited the Fed's interest rate decision on Wednesday. The energy sector tracked oil prices hire on fears that the Ukraine standoff would put pressure on supplies. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, January 25, 2022 Facts: -2.28%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 34%, Body: 19% Red Good: Higher low, less volume on decline Bad: Lower high, failed rally in afternoon Highs/Lows: Lower high, Higher low Candle: Inside day, spinning top indicating indecision Advance/Decline: 0.75, more declining than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-1.22%), DJI (-0.19%), RUT (-1.45%), VIX (+4.21%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +3.88%) and Financials (XLF +0.42%) at the top. Communications (XLC -2.05%) and Technology (XLK -2.31%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Markets were lower on Tuesday as investors awaited the Fed's interest rate decision on Wednesday. The energy sector tracked oil prices hire on fears that the Ukraine standoff would put pressure on supplies. The Nasdaq fell -2.28% for the day. Despite the decline, volume was lower than the previous day and the spinning top candle with a lower high and higher low indicate indecision in the market. The 19% red body sits in the middle of the candle above a 34% closing range. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) was down only -0.19% thanks to outperformance in large Energy and Financial stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -1.22%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) fell -1.45%. The VIX Volatility Index climbed +4.21%. Energy (XLE +3.88%) and Financials (XLF +0.42%) were at the top of the sector list. Communications (XLC -2.05%) and Technology (XLK -2.31%) were at the bottom. Consumer Confidence for January beat the forecast, coming in at 113.8 against an expected 111.8. The US Dollar index (DXY) was higher by +0.10%. US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields were slightly down while the 2y yield rose. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices were both lower. Gold moved higher as investors bought it for a safe haven. Crude Oil Futures moved higher on potential supply issues from a possible Ukraine standoff. The put/call ratio (PCCE) dropped to 0.682. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved further into the Fear range. The four largest mega-caps were down for the day. Microsoft (MSFT) closed below its 200d moving average for the first time since the beginning of the pandemic. Apple (AAPL) had an intraday rally for a gain, but then fell back to close with a -1.14% decline. Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) produced inside days and declines of -3.15% and -2.96%. Chevron (CVX) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) were the top mega-caps for today. Chevron advanced +4.25% while Exxon Mobil climbed +2.94%. ASML Holding (ASML) was at the bottom of the mega-cap list, declining -5.65%. Nvidia (NVDA) was also near the bottom, dropping -5.29% today. Only three of the Daily Update Growth List stocks gained. Penn National Gaming topped the list with a +1.86% climb. After two days of gains, Peloton (PTON) found itself at the bottom of the list again, declining -10.70%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The biggest news for tomorrow will be results of the Fed meeting and their Interest Rate decision. That news will come around 2pm. In the morning, we'll get the Goods Trade Balance and Retail Inventories for December. After the market opens, we'll have New Homes Sales data for December. Later in the morning, the weekly Crude Oil Inventories will be available. Tesla (TSLA), Abbot Labs (ABT), Intel (INTC), AT&T (T), Boeing (BA), ServiceNow (NOW), ADP (ADP), and Progressive (PGR) are among the earnings reports for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index opened lower, then nearly rallied to a gain before finally fading back to a loss. The one-day trend line points to a +2.02% advance for Wednesday. The five-day trend line ends with a -2.45% decline. The trend line from the 1/12 high results in a -3.96% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up There's not much investors could do on Tuesday but wait for Wednesday. That resulted in lower volume and a soft rally attempt in the afternoon. The spinning top candle represents that indecisive sentiment. Earnings reports will significantly impact sentiment this week. Microsoft beat estimates and provide very positive guidance for 2022. That could help bring some support into the market, including the Nasdaq. Based on the candle and downtrend, the expectation for tomorrow remains Sideways or Lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Daily Market Update for 1/24Summary: Markets rebounded after a massive dip in the morning brought on by worries over the Fed interest rate decisions mid-week and what's happening between Russia and NATO over Ukraine. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, January 24, 2022 Facts: +0.63%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 97%, Body: 48% Green Good: High closing range, gain on higher volume, high advance/decline ratio Bad: Big dip in the morning, lower high, lower low Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Long lower wick underneath a 48% green body, tiny upper wick Advance/Decline: 1.29, more advancing than declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.28%), DJI (+0.29%), RUT (+2.29%), VIX (+3.64%) Sector List: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.20%) and Communications (XLC +0.73%) at the top. Health (XLV -0.33%) and Utilities (XLU -0.96%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Markets rebounded after a massive dip in the morning brought on by worries over the Fed interest rate decisions mid-week and what's happening between Russia and NATO over Ukraine. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.63% gain. That came after dip of -4.90% in the morning. The candle has a 48% green body above a long lower wick from the morning dip. The recovery and rally into close led to a 97% closing range. Volume was higher than the previous day. There were more advancing stocks than declining stocks. At its lowest point, the Nasdaq was down -19.23% from its all-time high. The Russell 2000 (RUT) outperformed for the day. The small-cap index rose +2.29%. The S&P 500 (SPX) climbed +0.28% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) rose +0.29%. All three indexes dipped severely in the morning. The VIX Volatility Index soared 35% intraday, but ended the day just +3.64% higher. The intraday top was the highest reading since November 2020. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.20%) and Communications (XLC +0.73%) were the top sectors for the day. Health (XLV -0.33%) and Utilities (XLU -0.96%) were at the bottom. From the upside reversal around 12:00p, all sectors gained with Technology (XLY +0.52%) leading the list. The Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers Index came in lower than expected. However both prints were above 50 which signals expansion in their respective sectors. The US Dollar strengthened, with the index (DXY) gaining +0.24% The US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields rose while the 2y yield declined. Both High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined. Silver retreated while Gold advanced. Crude Oil, Timber, Copper and Aluminum all retreated. The put/call ratio remained at a relatively bearish level, declining to 0.950 today. The CNN Fear & Greed index remained in the Fear area. All four largest mega-caps recovered from morning dips. Only Apple (AAPL) could not end the day with a gain, declining -0.49%. Microsoft dipped well below its 200d MA, but recovered to close above the line and gain +0.11%. Amazon (AMZN) rose +1.33%. Alphabet (GOOGL) improved by +0.35%. Home Depot (HD) gained +4.21% today to top the mega-cap list. Adobe (ADBE) was the next best with a +3.95% advance. At the bottom of the list was Alibaba (BABA) and Pfizer (PFE) which lost -2.32% and -2.37%. The Daily Update Growth List had some big winners. Chewy (CHWY) topped the list with a +13.72% gain. Peloton (PTON) continued its rebound, advancing +9.79% today. Chinese stocks were at the bottom of the list, with Nio (NIO) having the most significant decline, losing -9.07%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead CB Consumer Confidence for January will be available after the market opens tomorrow. Microsoft (MSFT), Johnson&Johnson (JNJ), Verizon (VZ), Texas Instruments (TXN), Raytheon (RTX), American Express (AXP), General Electric (GE), Lockheed Martin (LMT), 3M (MMM), and Logitech (LOGI) are among the earnings reports tomorrow. All eyes will be on Microsoft to set a tone for the mega-cap reports coming later this week and next. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index dipped to almost 13,000 before catching some support and recovering to close higher. Still, the trend is downward with a lower low and lower high. If the one-day trend line continues into Tuesday, expect a +1.11% advance. The trend line from the 1/12 high and the five-day trend line both represent the steep declines over the two time periods. After today's rally, if the index returns to those lines it would mean a decline of -3.29% to -4.55%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up We are not out of the woods yet, but today was a positive day. The candle itself has a long lower wick that can indicate a reversal when in a downtrend. The result is a move higher on higher than average volume (although a large portion of that volume came in the dip). The closing range of 97% shows the rally rode right into close. We also have more advancing stocks than declining stocks. To continue the momentum, look for another positive day tomorrow on increased volume. We also want to see the advance/decline line remain above 1.0 and a good closing range. The last thing we need to see and we didn't get today, is a higher high and a higher low. The expectation is for Sideways or Higher. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 1/21Summary: That’s four days in a row with a long upper wick from a failed morning rally and a dismal closing range under 10%. Panic sets in for investors as the Fed's rate hike decision approaches to fight higher inflation while risking the possibility of a recession. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, January 21, 2022 Facts: -2.72%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 1%, Body: 68% Red Good: Nothing Bad: Fourth failed rally attempt this week, low closing range Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Long upper wick with large red body. No lower wick. Advance/Decline: 0.24, four declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-1.89%), DJI (-1.30%), RUT (-1.78%), VIX (+12.74%) Sector List: Consumer Staples (XLP +0.08%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.06%) at the top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.93%) and Communications (XLC -3.38%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview That’s four days in a row with a long upper wick from a failed morning rally and a dismal closing range under 10%. Panic sets in for investors as the Fed's rate hike decision approaches to fight higher inflation while risking the possibility of a recession. The Nasdaq declined -2.72% to end its worst week since the pandemic began and its fourth weekly decline in a row. Volume was higher than the previous day. The candle looks just like the other four this week, with a long upper wick from a failed rally turning to a large red body and no lower wick. The closing range was just 1% under a 68% red body. There were four declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -1.89% to close below its 200d moving average. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined -1.30%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) gave up -1.78%. The VIX Volatility Index continued to soar with a +12.74% rise on Friday. Only Consumer Staples (XLP +0.08%) advanced for the day. The other defensive sectors of Real Estate (XLRE -0.06%) and Utilities (XLU -0.19%) were the next two in the sector list. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.93%) and Communications (XLC -3.38%) were at the bottom. Retail Sales in the UK and Canada for December echoed the US result, missing targets and declining month-over-month. The US Dollar index (DXY) was fairly steady for the week, declining -0.14% on Friday. US 30y, 10y and 2y Treasury Bonds all declined as investors moved to the safety of bonds vs the volatility in equities. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices tracked Treasuries higher (Yields lower, Prices higher). Silver and Gold both moved lower for the day. Crude Oil Futures, Timber, Copper and Aluminum Futures all sank. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 1.15, the most bearish reading since March 2020. The CNN Fear & Greed index floated back into the fear range. The NAAIM money manager exposure index declined to 56.73 from 74.78 the previous week. All four largest mega-caps declined. Amazon (AMZN) continues to fall more than the others, declining -5.95% on Friday. Alphabet (GOOGL) dropped -2.22%. Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) faired a bit better, declining -1.28% and -1.85%. Only four mega-caps gained for the day. Abbot Laboratories (ABT) was the top gainer, gaining 0.90%. The biggest loser in the list was Walt Disney (DIS) which lost -6.94%, possibly weighted down by Netflix's disappointing subscriber growth. Alibaba (BABA) was also at the bottom of the list after topping it several days this week. It gave back the intraweek gains, declining -5.95% on Friday. In the Daily Update Growth List, only two stocks advanced. Peloton (PTON) gained +11.73%, bouncing back from a -24% decline the previous day. Beyond Meat (BYND) squeezed out a +0.29% advance. At the bottom of the list was Netflix, ending the day with a -21.79% decline. The company reported slower than expected subscriber growth. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The big news next week will be the Fed's rate increase decision on Wednesday. Also impacting the market will be earnings reports from Apple, Microsoft and Tesla, the largest of the big hitters reporting next week. Monday will bring the Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Manager Index data for January, a forward-looking indicator on economic performance. Earnings reports on Monday include IBM (IBM) and Haliburton (HAL). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index is now -15% below its all-time high. The five-day trend line and the trend line from the 1/12 high both point to a +0.49% advance for the index if it returns to the longer trends. The one-day trend line leads to a -1.39% decline for Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up A painful week ends with investors at their most bearish level since the March 2020 crash. Some people call for further pain as a bubble of speculative investments over the past two years bursts. Others are saying this looks like the correction we needed and this could be the bottom. What do the charts and indicators tell us? The Nasdaq chart is dismal. It has no indication of stopping the decline. Every rally attempt this week failed and three of the four days showed distribution from institutional investors, marked by high volume declines. The percentage of stocks above their 200d and 50d moving averages are both at their lowest since the pandemic began. However, they have seen lower levels during the start of the pandemic and in late 2018 and early 2016. So these indicators could go lower. Treasury Bond yields rose sharply the previous week on speculation that the Fed would initiate interest rate hikes with a 50 basis points instead of the previously expected 25 basis points. That uncertainty and volatility in bonds just further tanked equities. One could look at the Fed's decision on Wednesday as a point of stabilization, especially if the Fed confirms the 25 basis point expectation. Investor sentiment often hits extremes around reversals. The put/call ratio rose to its highest (most bearish) point since March 2020, and the first time since 2020 that there were more puts than calls in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is not in Extreme Fear, however four out of seven of its subcomponents are there. The NAAIM money manager exposure index is below 60, where it typically bottoms and moves higher as money managers buy the dip. History tells us that equities typically decline leading up to rate hikes and then rise after rate hikes. However, we are in unprecedented times after historic low interest rates and massive QE causing the highest level of inflation since the 1980s. That potentially requires a very hawkish fed to bring it under control. So is there more uncertainty ahead? The bottom line is we're still not out of the woods. Rather than trying to guess, or listen to click-bait media, wait for the market to confirm the bottom. A few days of higher volume advances with broad support across the market will tell us that institutions are back in the game. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Give me a reason for Nasdaq to go up?I look for 3 major signs in order to initiate a long term short position 1. BB Cross ... 2. RSI Cross ... 3. Macd Cross ✅ Things however do not look good... February & March are key for the rest of the year. To be honest the party was awesome and it lasted way too much and went way too high what else do you expect? Bad signs to take into consideration: 1. Everybody on the planet is involved somehow with "investing" (www.bloomberg.com) 2. Record number of SPACs (www.statista.com) 3. Failed IPOs (sing of the trend getting weaker) + they did also an IPO in way too high valuation check for yourself some of the hottest (Rivian,Robinhood,Didi,Coupang,Roblox, Airbnb, Snowflake etc etc etc) 4. Inflation running super hot & Interest rates rise ( DO NOT FIGHT THE FED) 5. Record sale of insiders sales (medium.com) 6. US 10YR rising 7. Musk sells quite a big amount of Tesla's shares (www.barrons.com) 8. Crypto casino boom & bust 9. Margin Debt all time high (www.forbes.com) 10. Technicals look awful And i am asking myself over and over again!!! especially now that the FED said interest rates going higher (money becomes more expensive, less leverage) why the heck the stock market will go up? especially when big boys are selling and retails power is drying up... WHO'S LEFT TO BUY?
TVC:IXIC
by Philoslother
2
NASDAQ: what "normalization" means for expensive tech stocksHi everyone, I'm out from NASDAQ since mid-October, had a feeling that too high pricing combined with issues to come (inflation, bubble areas) will hurt bad. I'm not that experienced to post on IXIC or SPX, but I think I share what I was looking at when distancing from risky positions: - 100 week MA - 200 week MA And a dozen more reasons, including fundamental ones, but I think the distance from the above 2 explains everything. I'm watching their area as bottoming targets: if wee reach 100week before July, I'll keep watching for Target 2. If we have a solid and longer bottoming at 100 week around or later than June, I might believe that Target 2 will not come. Cheers, and happy dip buying if you have patience and self-control to wait, Antonio
NASDAQ:IXIC
by antonio-schmidt
Daily Market Update for 1/20Summary: A morning rally attempt failed, turning into more declines for the major indexes. Chinese stocks outperformed after China cut interest rates. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, January 20, 2022 Facts: -1.30%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 3%, Body: 62% Red Good: Nothing Bad: Another failed rally, closing range of 3%, volume higher on decline Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Long upper wick over a thick red body Advance/Decline: 0.36, nearly three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-1.10%), DJI (-0.89%), RUT (-1.88%), VIX (+7.30%) Sector List: Utilities (XLU +0.13%) and Financials (XLF -0.64%) at the top. Materials (XLB -1.45%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.82%) at the bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview A morning rally attempt failed, turning into more declines for the major indexes. Chinese stocks outperformed after China cut interest rates. The Nasdaq closed with a -1.30% loss. Volume was higher than the previous day, marking another distribution day. The failed morning rally created a long upper wick that sits over a 62% red body. There is a tiny lower wick, leaving the candle with a 3% closing range. Nearly three stocks declined for every stock that advanced. The Russell 2000 (RUT) continued to sell-off more than the other indexes, declining -1.88% today. The S&P 500 (SPX) lost -1.10%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell -0.89%. The VIX Volatility Index rose +7.30%. Only the Utilities (XLU +0.13%) sector ended the day with a gain. Financials (-0.64%) was the second best sector for the day, helped by some positive earnings reports from banks in the morning. Materials (XLB -1.45%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.82%) were at the bottom of the sector list. Initial Jobless Claims were higher than forecast, coming in at 286,000 compared to the forecast of 220,000. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for January printed 23.2 compared to the expectation of 20.0. That was welcome news after the NY Manufacturing Index showed worsening conditions with a negative print. Existing Home Sales for December was under the forecast by 4%. Crude Oil Inventories was higher than expected, marking some fall back in demand. The US Dollar index (DXY) rose by +0.16%. US 30y, 10y and 2y Treasury Yields all declined. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices continued to slide while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices seemed to bottom. Silver continued to rise sharply while Gold declined. Aluminum Futures are reaching back toward record highs. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.816. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back to Neutral, from the Greed area yesterday. The NAAIM money manager exposure index declined to 56.73 from 74.78 the previous week. All four mega-caps declined today. Amazon (AMZN) continued to tumble, with a -2.96% decline. The stock is nearly 20% off its all-time high. Alphabet (GOOGL) closed just above its 200d moving average, losing -1.34% today. Apple (AAPL) made an attempt to get back above its 50d moving average, but ended the day with a -1.03% loss. Microsoft (MSFT) declined -0.57%. Top performing stocks for the day in both the mega-cap and growth list were Chinese companies. Alibaba (BABA) sat at the top of the mega-cap list with a +2.58% advance. At the bottom of the list was Nvidia (NVDA), declining -3.66% today as the entire semiconductor segment continues to lose ground. The top five stocks in the Daily Update Growth List were all Chinese, with Ehang Holdings (EH)leading the charge and gaining +11.40%. At the bottom of the growth list was Peloton (PTON). The company dropped -23.93% after news hit that they would be halting production of bikes and treadmills. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Retail Sales data for the UK and Canada will come overnight. Otherwise, there is not much economic news in the calendar for Friday. Schlumberger (SLB) and Huntington Bacnshares (HBAN) report earnings in the morning. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq continues to tumble as it doesn’t seem to be catching any support areas. The index is -12.70% below its all-time high. If the index can return to the trend line from the 12/28 high, it would require a +1.37% advance on Friday. The five-day trend line points to a +0.35% gain. If the one-day trend continues, expect another -1.86% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Pain, pain, pain. It's tough to watch the failed rally attempts turn into significant losses day after day this week. The strengthening dollar today and rising Treasury prices both point to money coming back into the US market. If that can continue, we should see some support in US equity markets as investors look for greater returns. Based on the chart, the index is not giving us any indication of a reversal, so the expectation for tomorrow remains Lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 1/19Summary: Markets continued to fall as actions from a more hawkish Fed loom in the near future. Two rally attempts in the Nasdaq couldn't hold on today and investors fled to defensive sectors. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, January 19, 2022 Facts: -1.15%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 3%, Body: 74% Red Good: Lower volume Bad: Lost the 14,500 support area, low closing range Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Mostly red body, long upper wick, no lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.51, two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.97%), DJI (-0.96%), RUT (-1.60%), VIX (+4.65%) Sector List: Consumer Staples (XLP +0.63%) and Utilities (XLU +0.45%) at the top. Financials (XLF -1.68%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.80%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Markets continued to fall as actions from a more hawkish Fed loom in the near future. Two rally attempts in the Nasdaq couldn't hold on today and investors fled to defensive sectors. The Nasdaq finished with a -1.15% decline. Volume was lower than the previous day. A long upper wick was formed from a morning rally that failed. The rest of the candle is 74% red body, leaving behind practically no lower wick and a 3% closing range. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) led the losses for another day, dropping -1.60%. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined -0.97% and -0.96%. The VIX Volatility Index rose by +4.65%. Only two sectors in the S&P 500 finished the day with gains, both defensive sectors. Consumer Staples (XLP +0.63%) and Utilities (XLU +0.45%) were at the top of the sector list. Financials (XLF -1.68%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.80%) were at the bottom. Building Permits and Housing Starts data exceeded expectations for December. There were 1.87m Building Permits compared to the forecast of 1.70m. And there were 1.70m Housing Starts compared to a forecast of 1.65m. Consumer Price Index data from the UK and Canada were both higher than expected. The US Dollar index (DXY) dropped by -0.11%. The US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields receded a bit while the 2y Treasury Yield rose slightly. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices continued to fall while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices rose. Silver and Gold both rose sharply for the day. The put/call ratio (PCCE) dropped to 0.717 as some investors may be seeing a bounce from here. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back into Greed, from a Neutral level yesterday. Of the four largest mega-caps, only Microsoft (MSFT) advanced for the day although it gave back much of its intraday gains. The stock ended the day with a +0.22% advance. Apple (AAPL) joined the other three in closing below its 50d moving average, dropping -2.10% today. Alphabet (GOOGL) declined -0.65% while Amazon (AMZN) fell -1.65%. Proctor & Gamble (PG) was the top mega-cap, rising +3.36% on a solid earnings report released in the premarket. The company stated that prices will continue to rise. Tesla (TSLA) was at the bottom of the mega-cap list, declining -3.38% today. Nvidia (NVDA) also declined more than -3%. Peloton (PTON) was the top stock in the Daily Update Growth List. The stock climbed +5.33% after the company announced it would be cutting staff and other fixed costs, improving the profitability in the company despite slower growth. Digital Turbine (APPS) was at the bottom of the list, losing -6.08%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Tomorrow morning will bring the weekly Initial Jobless Claims. We will also get the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing index. The NY index showed worsening conditions for January. After the market opens, Existing Home Sales data will be available. Crude Oil Inventories will come later in the morning. Overnight, inflation data for Europe will be made available. Tomorrow's earnings reports include Netflix (NFLX), CSX (CSX), Travelers (TRV), Fifth Third (FITB), KeyCorp (KEY), and American Airlines (AAL). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq continues to lose support areas as it moved well into correction territory, down -11.55% from the all-time high. If the index moves back to the 12/29 trend line, that would mean a +0.68% advanced tomorrow. The one-day and five-day trend lines point to a -0.78% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The pain continues. However, Treasury Yields showed some leveling off today. With some surprise economic data or better earnings reports, we could see a bounce over the next day or two. That won't give us much indication of whether the bounce would hold into next week. Confidence will only come when we see a rotation back into growth sectors that’s broadly shared across the Nasdaq (high advance/decline ratio) and a an advance on higher volume. Based on the chart and today's intraday moves, the expectation is for Sideways or Lower tomorrow. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 1/18Summary: Equity markets fell for another day as Treasury bond yields hit their highest level since the pandemic began. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, January 18, 2022 Facts: -2.60%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 9%, Body: 68% Red Good: Nothing Bad: Move below 200d moving average on higher volume Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Thick red body with longer upper wick Advance/Decline: 0.23, more than four declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-1.84%), DJI (-1.51%), RUT (-3.06%), VIX (+18.76%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +0.40%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.68%) at the top. Financials (XLF -2.23%) and Technology (XLK -2.40%) at the bottom. Expectation: -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Equity markets fell for another day as Treasury bond yields hit their highest level since the pandemic began. The Nasdaq (IXIC) dropped -2.60% today. Volume was higher than the previous day, marking a significant distribution day for the index. The closing range of 9% comes below a red body that covers 68% of the candle. The longer upper wick was formed in the morning as the index attempted to move back above the 200d moving average but hit resistance. There were more than four declining stocks for every advancing stock. Small-caps had the most significant decline. The Russell 2000 (RUT) dropped -3.06%. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell -1.84% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lost -1.51%. The VIX Volatility Index shot up +18.76%. Of the S&P 500 sectors, only Energy (XLE +0.40%) gained for the day. Financials (XLF -2.23%) and Technology (XLK -2.40%) were at the bottom of the list. Financials was pulled down by disappointing earnings reports from Goldman Sachs. The Technology sector tends to be most sensitive to rising Treasury yields. To further dampen market sentiment, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index came in less than zero at -0.70 compared to the forecast of 25.70. The negative number indicates worsening conditions. The US Dollar index (DXY) rose by +0.50% today. The dollar strengthened that last three days. The US 10y and 2y Treasury Yields rose sharply, reaching their highest levels since the beginning of 2020. The US 30y Treasury Yield also rose. The gap between long and short term yields continues to tighten. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices also dropped sharply, tracking with Treasury prices (Yields rise, prices drop). Crude Oil Futures are nearing a new high. Silver rose despite the strengthening dollar. Gold declined. Timber (WOOD) prices fell sharply after hitting its highest point since May. The put/call ratio declined to 0.799. The CNN Fear & Greed index is hovering around Neutral. All four largest mega-caps declined for the day. Apple (AAPL) is the only of the four remaining above its 50d moving average line, declining -1.89% today. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) lost -2.43% and -2.50% as they both approach the 200d moving average. Exxon Mobil (XOM) was the best-performing mega-cap for the day, climbing +1.68%. The only other mega-cap to gain more than 1% was Eli Lilly (LLY) closing the day with a +1.21% gain. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and Qualcomm (QCOM) were at the bottom of the mega-cap list with -4.86% and -5.21% declines. Chinese fintech companies topped the Daily Update Growth List. FUTU Holding (FUTU) and UP Fintech (TIGR) gained +3.85% and +2.97%. The largest losses in the list came from Cloudflare (NET), declining -6.64%, and Lemonade (LMND), falling -6.67%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Build Permits and Housing Starts data for December will be available in the morning before the market opens. We'll also get inflation data for the UK and Canada overnight. UnitedHealth (UNH), Procter & Gamble (PG), Bank of America (BAC), Morgan Stanley (MS), and United Airlines (UAL) are among the earnings reports for Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index closed above the 14,500 resistance/support area. If the index returns to the trend line from the 12/28 high, that would mean a +0.27% gain for tomorrow. The five-day trend line points to a -0.22% decline. If the one-day trend continues, expect a -1.10% decline for Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up I mentioned on Friday that we'll continue to feel pain until the Bond market stabilizes. With yields spiking today, that meant more price declines for the major indexes and nearly all sectors. Maybe we'll see a bounce in the right direction tomorrow, but much of that depends on Treasury yields. Based on the chart, the expectation is for Lower on Wednesday. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321