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Market Week in Review - 6/21/2021 - 6/25/2021Summary: It was a great week across all major indexes. The week opened with a gain on Monday that erased losses from the prior Friday. Once investors had a chance to absorb the new Fed hawkish stance and get past a quadruple witching day, they were ready to push back into growth stocks and see the markets another step upward. Notes The Market Week in Review is my weekend homework where I look over what happened in the previous week and what might come in the next week. I occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. If you find this helpful, please let me know in the comments. I am also more than happy to add new perspectives and data points if you have ideas. The structure is the following: A recap of the daily updates that I do here on TradingView. View on the past week What's coming in the next week The Bullish View, The Bearish View Key index levels to watch out for Wrap-up If you have been following my daily updates, you can skip down to "View on the Week." If not, then this first part is a great play-by-play recap for the week. Click the daily charts for more detail on sectors, indexes, and market leaders each day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, June 21, 2021 Facts: +0.79%, Volume higher, Closing range: 95%, Body: 49% Good: Higher high, long lower wick from bullish rebound off morning low Bad: Lower low, otherwise not much Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Half green body with long lower wick, small upper wick Advanced/Decline: 1.03, One advancing stock for each declining stock Indexes: SPX (+1.40%), DJI (+1.76%), RUT (+2.16%), VIX (-13.66%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +3.21%) and Financials (XLF +1.93%) were top. Utilities (XLU +0.51%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.49%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher Investors moved back into equities on Monday, helping markets rebound from Friday's sell-off. All major indexes and sectors moved higher while stocks ended the day balanced across gains and losses. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.79% gain. The volume was lower than Friday's unusually high volume. The 49% body is in the upper half of the candle, above a long lower wick formed just after the market open. The index dropped after open, but found support around 14,000 and moved higher the rest of the day. There were about the same number of advancing stocks as declining stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, June 22, 2021 Facts: +0.79%, Volume lower, Closing range: 89%, Body: 77% Good: New all-time high, thick green body, small wicks Bad: A/D ratio, lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Mostly green body with short upper and lower wicks Advanced/Decline: 0.74, More declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.51%), DJI (+0.20%), RUT (+0.43%), VIX (-6.77%) Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.94%) and Technology (XLK +0.91%) were top. Real Estate (XLRE -0.45%) and Utilities (XLU -0.61%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher It was a record-setting day for the Nasdaq, setting a new all-time high for the first time since April. The other major indexes also had good gains for the day, while the sector list mainly was positive. Investors responded to better than expected existing home sales data and no new surprises from Fed Jerome Powell's testimony to congress. The Nasdaq gained +0.79% for the day and finished the day with its highest close since April. The closing range of 89% and 77% green body represents a bullish session that only paused mid-day to await Powell's comments. Despite the bullish day, there were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, June 23, 2021 Facts: +0.13%, Volume lower, Closing range: 36%, Body: 12% Good: New high, A/D over 1.0 Bad: Low closing range, weak volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Thin green body in the lower half of candle Advanced/Decline: 1.04, About the same number of advancing and declining stocks. Indexes: SPX (-0.11%), DJI (-0.21%), RUT (+0.33%), VIX (-2.16%) Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.77%) and Energy (XLE +0.28%) were top. Materials (XLB -0.64%) and Utilities (XLU -1.06%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower Mixed economic data seemed to bring mixed reactions in the market today. The result is a day of slim gains across the market while the indices pause after a couple of days of gains. The Nasdaq gained +0.13%. Volume was lower than the previous day. The thin 12% body is in the lower half of the candle, resulting in a 36% closing range. The longer upper wick was formed in a rally just after the market opened, but the index could not hold onto the gains. There were about the same number of advancing stocks as declining stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, June 24, 2021 Facts: +0.69%, Volume lower, Closing range: 54% (w/gap), Body: 15% Good: Low above yesterday's high creates bullish rising window, high A/D ratio Bad: Lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Thin green body near middle of candle, gap up at open, longer upper wick Advanced/Decline: 1.79, Three gaining stocks for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.58%), DJI (+0.95%), RUT (+1.31%), VIX (-2.15%) Sectors: Financials (XLF +1.25%) and Communications (XLC +0.94%) at top. Utilities (XLU -0.09%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.47%) at bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher The S&P 500 and Nasdaq set new record closes today, and gains were broad across sectors and stocks. The Russell 2000 also had gains ahead of the $10 trillion-dollar rebalancing happening this weekend. The Nasdaq opened the day with a gap-up and ended with a +0.69% gain. Like yesterday, it could not hold an intraday high set mid-day, retreating near the opening price. The 15% green body is under a 54% closing range. The two-day rising window pattern is a bullish continuation pattern. Three stocks advanced for every declining stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, June 25, 2021 Facts: -0.06%, Volume higher, Closing range: 32%, Body: 57% Good: Sideways trading with the high/low range of previous day Bad: Lower high, drop on high volume, thick red body Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Inside day, mostly red body with small upper and lower wicks, lower wick is slightly longer Advanced/Decline: 0.91, more declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.33%), DJI (+0.69%), RUT (+0.03%), VIX (-2.19%) Sectors: Financials (XLF +1.21%) and Utilities (XLU +1.07%) at top. Materials (XLB +0.01%) and Technology (XLK -0.12%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower The S&P 500 closed at another record on Friday while the Nasdaq couldn't make new gains. Economic data is sending mixed signals on the progress of the recovery. For example, while higher than the previous month, consumer data was not as high as analysts expected. The Nasdaq traded inside the previous day's high and low range and closed lower by the end of the day. The 57y% red body is in the upper part of the candle. The index formed the longer lower wick in morning volatility that set the intraday high and intraday low within the first hour of the trading session. The closing range of 32% is low. The big spike in volume was due to the Russell 3000 rebalancing activity. As a result, there were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- View on the Week It was a great week across all major indexes. The week opened with a gain on Monday that erased losses from the prior Friday. Once investors had a chance to absorb the new Fed hawkish stance and get past a quadruple witching day, they were ready to push back into growth stocks and see the markets another step upward. There were not many surprises throughout the week. Economic news was mixed at times, but nothing was so out of the ordinary to cause investors reactions. Testimony by Jerome Powell to Congress contained no significant changes in posture. His statements reinforced that they believed inflation to be transitory but would be willing to raise interest rates if inflation was higher than expected. A reconstitution of the Russell 3000 hit the Friday market, where stocks are moved on and off the list based on the current year's capitalization. The shift causes a rebalance across active and passive indexed funds based on the Russell indexes. That rebalance represented over ten trillion dollars of money moved around stocks on Friday. www.tradingview.com The Nasdaq advanced +2.35% this week, setting new record highs. Volume was higher than the previous week due to the rebalancing of indexed funds following the Russell 3000 reconstitution process. The index continued a trend of higher highs and higher lows. The closing range of 88% is excellent. Overall a strong week with a good gain on higher volume. The Russell 2000 (RUT) had the biggest gain of the major indexes, advancing +4.32% this week and erasing the big loss from the previous week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) followed a similar pattern, regaining last week's losses and advancing +3.44% for this week. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +2.74% and had a weekly record close. The VIX volatility declined -24.63% for the week. Energy ( XLE ) and Financials ( XLF ) topped the sector list this week. Energy continues to rise while crude oil prices hit record highs. Financials ( XLF ) is recovering along with yields on Treasury Bonds, which both were hit by the hawkish stance from the Fed last week. At the bottom of the sector list were the defensive sectors. Utilities ( XLU ) was the only sector to decline this week. The growth sectors mixed with the cyclical sectors in the middle of the list. Treasury yields on 30y and 10y rebounded a bit from last week's losses while the US 2y yield remained about the same. As a result, the spread between long-term and short-term yields widened. The High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices advanced, Investment Grade Bond (LQD) prices declined. The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.55% for the week. Silver (SILVER) advanced +1.16%, and Gold (GOLD) advanced +0.96%. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced +3.81%. Timber (WOOD) advanced +2.66%, the first weekly advance in six weeks. Copper (COPPER1!) advanced +4.12%. Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced +4.18%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Big Four Mega-caps The big four mega-caps continue to show strength, trading above the 10-week and 40-week moving averages. Apple (AAPL) tested the 10-week line but closed the week with a +2.03% gain. Microsoft (MSFT) gained +2.15%. Alphabet (GOOGL) advanced +2.00%. Amazon (AMZN) was the only loser of the four, falling -2.45% this week after two weeks of significant gains. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Four Recovery Stocks I picked four recovery stocks to track against the indexes and other indicators in this weekly report. Exxon Mobile (XOM) gained a huge +7.05%, not only on higher oil prices but also the news that the company will reduce costs by laying off some of its workforce. Marriott (MAR) was the only other gainer, advancing +0.94% but remaining below its 10-week moving average. Delta Airlines (DAL) continues to get resistance at the 10-week line, declining -1.18% this week. Finally, Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL) closed below the 10-week line with a -0.18% loss this week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Cryptocurrency I started tracking four major cryptocurrencies on the week in review. The four are Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Bitcoin Cash. The latter two are not the largest by market cap but seem to be well-known and are part of the CIX capital.com index, tracking five cryptocurrencies, including these four (Ripple is the fifth). The four cryptocurrencies continued to slide lower this week. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -6.70%, closing below its 40-week moving average. Ethereum (ETHUSD) dropped -17.17% but remained above the 40-week line. Both Litecoin (LTCUSD) and Bitcoin Cash (BCHUSD) moved below the 40-week lines with -16.85% and -16.64% losses. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio (PCCE) moved lower, ending the week at 0.567. A contrarian indicator, when the put/call ratio is below 0.7, it signals overly bullish sentiment and could mean an overbought market. The CNN Fear & Greed Index is on the fear side but moving toward neutral. The NAAIM money manager exposure index dropped to 70.86 this week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Week Ahead Monday The Fed member John Williams will speak on Monday morning as the market is opening. The new Russell 3000 list became official after the market close on Friday, and more impact to equities moving on and off the list could occur Monday morning. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update on Monday. Tuesday Consumer Confidence numbers for June will be released on Tuesday, after the market open. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update on Tuesday. Wednesday Wednesday brings an update on Nonfarm Employment before the market opens. In addition, pending Home Sales and Crude Oil Inventories are available after the market open. Meme stock, Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY), will release earnings on Wednesday. Thursday Thursday's economic data includes Initial Jobless Claims and Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index. Walgreens Boots (WBA) releases earnings on Thursday. Friday More economic data becomes available on Friday. Average Hourly Earnings, Nonfarm Payrolls, and the Unemployment Rate will provide insights into the labor market recovery. Trade Balance data will also be released. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update on Friday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bullish Side The Nasdaq continues in a Power Trend while the other major indices are making advances. Power Trends are times to be very bullish on stocks. Investor's Business Daily has information on how to spot Power Trends. There doesn't seem to be any considerable catalyst coming this week unless there are surprises in economic data. The lack of a catalyst should keep investor sentiment in the positive and help further advance the market. The US Dollar is holding up at its current level. Long-term Treasury yields are recovering a bit while short-term yields continue to remain high. The yield gap remains tighter than it was earlier in the year. It seems the four 2021 fears (Retail Investors, Bonds Volatility, Inflation, and Interest Rates) are all under control for the moment. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bearish Side After a big week of gains into record closes, it would not be a huge surprise to have the market pullback or pause here. However, a few surprises in the economic calendar would turn the markets more bearish. First, anytime the Fed speaks, the market will be watching closely. Fed John Williams will be making remarks at the BIS Andrew Crockett Memorial Lecture on Monday morning. Investors will also be watching Employment data throughout the week. The data starts on Wednesday with the ADP Nonfarm Employment Data, continues on Thursday with Initial Jobless Claims, and ends with the Unemployment Rate and Payrolls data. The ideal situation is that the data comes in near expected, not too low or too high. Significant differences in either direction could bring volatility back to the US dollar and bonds and have a negative impact on equities. It's a light week on economic news and earnings. There's not much to be bearish about in the data. But many times, it is when you don't expect them that the bears come out of nowhere. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Key Nasdaq Levels to Watch The Nasdaq found support at 14,000 last week and moved higher this week, closing at new all-time highs. On the positive side, the levels are: The high of this past week was a new all-time high at 14,414.46. The mid-point of the regression trend from the 5/12 low points to 14,556 by the end of the week. On the downside, there are a few key levels: The 10d MA is at 14,187.50. 14,000 has been a key area of support/resistance. The low of this past week is 13,960.04. The 21d EMA is at 14040.86. The 50d MA is at 13,782.40817.47. There is a pivot at 13,548.93. This is a "higher low" in the current uptrend. There is a support area at 13,000. 13,002.54 is a pivot from May. Below this level is a correction. 12862.73 is the 200d MA. This could be a support point if the index falls below 13,000. 12,397.05 is a low pivot point from the early March dip. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up If you read last week's review, we learned some important things about investor sentiment in the current market. Out-of-control inflation is the greater evil than higher interest rates. Once investors absorbed the Fed's comments, they showed confidence that the Fed recognizes inflation and is willing to control it with higher interest rates. Yet, the Fed is not rushing to raise those rates unless inflation fears become a reality, comforting the long-term investor. That allowed the market to move a leg up this week. From last week's pivot, nothing changed, and there is not much coming next week that would cause a sentiment change, so I expect sideways or higher for the coming week. Let's watch and see what happens. Good luck, stay healthy, and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 6/25Summary: The S&P 500 closed at another record on Friday while the Nasdaq couldn't make new gains. Economic data is sending mixed signals on the progress of the recovery. For example, while higher than the previous month, consumer data was not as high as analysts expected. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, June 25, 2021 Facts: -0.06%, Volume higher, Closing range: 32%, Body: 57% Good: Sideways trading with the high/low range of previous day Bad: Lower high, drop on high volume, thick red body Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Inside day, mostly red body with small upper and lower wicks, lower wick is slightly longer Advanced/Decline: 0.91, more declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.33%), DJI (+0.69%), RUT (+0.03%), VIX (-2.19%) Sectors: Financials (XLF +1.21%) and Utilities (XLU +1.07%) at top. Materials (XLB +0.01%) and Technology (XLK -0.12%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The S&P 500 closed at another record on Friday while the Nasdaq couldn't make new gains. Economic data is sending mixed signals on the progress of the recovery. For example, while higher than the previous month, consumer data was not as high as analysts expected. The Nasdaq traded inside the previous day's high and low range and closed lower by the end of the day. The 57y% red body is in the upper part of the candle. The index formed the longer lower wick in morning volatility that set the intraday high and intraday low within the first hour of the trading session. The closing range of 32% is low. The big spike in volume was due to the Russell 3000 rebalancing activity. As a result, there were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) had another record close, after a 0.33% gain for the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gapped up at the market open and ended the day with a +0.69% gain. The Russell 2000 (RUT) could not hold onto intraday gains, ending the day with just a +0.03% advance. The VIX volatility index declined -2.19%. Another lowest close since the start of the pandemic. Financials (XLF +1.21%) continued to make gains as Treasury yields begin to recover. Utilities (XLU +1.07%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.77%) were second and third on the sector list, showing some defensive stance in the market. Only the Technology (XLK -0.12%) sector closed the day with a loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) was flat for the day. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields advanced. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices gained for the day. Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (Wood) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -8.81%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -8.98%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.567. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is on the fear side, moving back toward neutral. The NAAIM money manager exposure index dropped to 70.86 this week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Of the four largest mega-caps, only Alphabet (GOOGL) held onto a slight gain, advancing +0.01%. Amazon (AMZN) fell -1.38%, the second day of losses and nearing the 21d EMA line. Microsoft (MSFT) declined -0.63%. Apple (AAPL) lost -0.22%. Nike (NKE) soared above the other mega-caps with a +15.53% gain on a massive revenue surprise. Alibaba (BABA), Bank of America (BAC), and Netflix (NFLX) were also in the top four. Amazon (AMZN), ASML Holding (ASML), PayPal (PYPL), and Eli Lilly (LLY) were the bottom four mega-caps for the day. Most of the growth stocks in the daily update list declined, but there were still quite a few winners. Alibaba (BABA), JD.com (JD), Beyond Meat (BYND), and Enphase (ENPH) were at the top of the list. At the bottom of the list were Square (SQ), Digital Turbine (APPS), Upwork (UPWK), and GrowGeneration (GRWG). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The Fed member John Williams will speak on Monday morning as the market is opening. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update on Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq traded flat today, with the high and low within the previous day's high and low. The five-day trend-line points to a +1.00% gain for Monday. The trend-line from the 5/12 low leads to a +0.32%. The one-day trend-line would continue the fade from Thursday's high and result in a -0.10% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up This week, the Nasdaq gained +2.35%, a significant move that included new all-time highs and record closes. So it is ok if there is a slight pause to end the week. The day had mixed economic news, but it also had the Russell 3000 rebalance that added huge volume and unknowns to the market. Investors got defensive, moving into sectors like Utilities and Consumer Staples. Look for some of that defense to turn back into offense on Monday. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 6/24Summary: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq set new record closes today, and gains were broad across sectors and stocks. The Russell 2000 also had gains ahead of the $10 trillion-dollar rebalancing happening this weekend. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, June 24, 2021 Facts: +0.69%, Volume lower, Closing range: 54% (w/gap), Body: 15% Good: Low above yesterday's high creates bullish rising window, high A/D ratio Bad: Lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Thin green body near middle of candle, gap up at open, longer upper wick Advanced/Decline: 1.79, Three gaining stocks for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.58%), DJI (+0.95%), RUT (+1.31%), VIX (-2.15%) Sectors: Financials (XLF +1.25%) and Communications (XLC +0.94%) at top. Utilities (XLU -0.09%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.47%) at bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The S&P 500 and Nasdaq set new record closes today, and gains were broad across sectors and stocks. The Russell 2000 also had gains ahead of the $10 trillion-dollar rebalancing happening this weekend. The Nasdaq opened the day with a gap-up and ended with a +0.69% gain. Like yesterday, it could not hold an intraday high set mid-day, retreating near the opening price. The 15% green body is under a 54% closing range. The two-day rising window pattern is a bullish continuation pattern. Three stocks advanced for every declining stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) performed best among the major indices for another day, gaining +1.31% for the day. The S&P 500 (SPX) advanced +0.58%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +0.95%. The VIX volatility index declined -2.15%. Financials (XLF +1.25%) and Communications (XLC +0.94%) sectors topped the sector list today. Only two sectors, Utilities (XLU -0.09%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.47%) declined for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) gained +0.03%. The US 30y Treasury bond yield declined while the 10y and 2y Treasury Yields advanced. Yields overall remain steady after last week's reaction to the Fed. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices gained for the day and are nearing levels not seen since before the pandemic. Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices also gained today. Silver (SILVER) advanced while Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined slightly. Timber (Wood) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) declined while Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) gained +2.47%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced +3.42%. (Time of writing) -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.540. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is on the fear side, moving back toward neutral. The NAAIM money manager exposure index dropped to 70.86 this week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) advanced +0.53% and +0.31% for the day. Apple (AAPL) declined -0.22%. Amazon (AMZN) pulled back -1.56% after gaining over 10% in the last few weeks. Eli Lilly (LLY), Tesla (TSLA), ASML Holding (ASML), and PayPal (PYPL) were the top mega-caps for the day. Only a handful of mega-caps declined for the day, with Mastercard (MA), Apple (AAPL), Oracle (ORCL), and Amazon (AMZN) at the bottom of the list. The majority of growth stocks in the daily update list had gains today. At the top of the list are Digital Turbine (APPS), Upwork (UPWK), Peloton (PTON), and Fastly (FSLY). Conversely, the worst performing for the day was Ehang Holding (EH), Beyond Meat (BYND), RH (RH), and MongoDB (MDB). Nike (NKE) shares soared 14% higher in after-hours trading. The company had a massive surprise on revenue over analyst estimates. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead More consumer pricing data released on Friday morning will give another boost to inflation worries but may be tempered by the fact that the Fed is now willing to control inflation. Consumer Expectations and Consumer Sentiment are also important data to be available after the market opens. CarMax (KMX) earnings on Friday may be interesting given the rise in used car prices. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq continues its move higher, approaching 14,500. The five-day trend-line points to a +0.76% gain for Friday. The trend-line from the 5/12 low leads to no gain for tomorrow. The one-day trend-line would continue the fade from today's highs and result in a -0.27% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Investors continue to be bullish this week, sending the index higher every day of the week. The chart would say that Friday will make it a perfect week with another gain. Volume should undoubtedly be higher tomorrow while the Russell 3000 (RUT) rebalances 10 trillion dollars. Still, after record-setting closes, there shouldn't be any surprise if investors take some profits here and we see some pullback. The expectation is for sideways or higher, but a healthy pullback is OK too. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 6/23Summary: Mixed economic data seemed to bring mixed reactions in the market today. The result is a day of slim gains across the market while the indices pause after a couple of days of gains. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, June 23, 2021 Facts: +0.13%, Volume lower, Closing range: 36%, Body: 12% Good: New high, A/D over 1.0 Bad: Low closing range, weak volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Thin green body in the lower half of candle Advanced/Decline: 1.04, About the same number of advancing and declining stocks. Indexes: SPX (-0.11%), DJI (-0.21%), RUT (+0.33%), VIX (-2.16%) Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.77%) and Energy (XLE +0.28%) were top. Materials (XLB -0.64%) and Utilities (XLU -1.06%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Mixed economic data seemed to bring mixed reactions in the market today. The result is a day of slim gains across the market while the indices pause after a couple of days of gains. The Nasdaq gained +0.13%. Volume was lower than the previous day. The thin 12% body is in the lower half of the candle, resulting in a 36% closing range. The longer upper wick was formed in a rally just after the market opened, but the index could not hold onto the gains. There were about the same number of advancing stocks as declining stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) performed best among the major indices today, gaining +0.33%. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.11%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell -0.21%. The VIX volatility index declined -2.16%. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.77%) and Energy (XLE +0.28%) topped the sector list today. The only other sector with gains was Financials (XLF +0.19%). Materials (XLB -0.64%) and Utilities (XLU -1.06%) were at the bottom of the sector list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) advanced +0.09%. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all advanced. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) advanced while Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (Wood) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) gained +2.47%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced +3.42%. (Time of writing) -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio lowered to 0.518. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is on the fear side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four largest mega-caps declined for the day but are still showing strength. Apple (AAPL) lost -0.21%. Alphabet (GOOGL) declined -0.17%. Microsoft (MSFT) fell -0.09%. Amazon (AMZN) declined -0.05%. Tesla (TSLA), Alibaba (BABA), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), and Walt Disney (DIS) were the top mega-caps today, all gaining over 1%. There were more decliners than gainers in the mega-cap list. Comcast (CMCSA), Eli Lilly (LLY), Pfizer (PFE), and PepsiCo (PEP) were at the bottom of the list. The daily update growth stock list had another day of broad gains. The big winners at the top of the list were UP Fintech (TIGR), Lemonade (LMND), FUTU Holding (FUTU), and SNAP (SNAP). At the bottom of the list were DocuSign (DOCU), CrowdStrike (CRWD), D.R. Horton (DHI), and DoorDash (DASH). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead For Thursday, data will be available for Durable Goods Orders. GDP data for Q1 should not change much over previously released numbers. We will also get the Initial Jobless Claims data before the markets open. Finally, there are Fed Bank Stress Test results to be made available after the market closes. Earnings reports on Thursday will include Nike (NKE), Accenture (ACN), FedEx (FDX), Blackberry (BB), and Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY). The last two have been popular meme stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq rose to another new all-time high and continued with the third day of gains this week. All three trend lines point to gains for tomorrow. The one-day trend-line is the flattest, with a +0.05 increase for Thursday. The trend-line from the 5/12 low points to a +0.36% gain, with the five-day trend-line coming in just under that mark. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The rally in the morning faded as more economic data became available and potentially traders took some profits. Several stocks entering the Russell 3000 list this week also had significant gains today, even though they don't officially join the indexes until Monday. Overall, it seems like a healthy pause after several days of market gains. Based on the long upper wick formed by the lost morning rally, the expectation is for sideways or lower tomorrow. But by all means, please do surprise me. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 6/22Summary: It was a record-setting day for the Nasdaq, setting a new all-time high for the first time since April. The other major indexes also had good gains for the day, while the sector list mainly was positive. Investors responded to better than expected existing home sales data and no new surprises from Fed Jerome Powell's testimony to congress. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, June 22, 2021 Facts: +0.79%, Volume lower, Closing range: 89%, Body: 77% Good: New all-time high, thick green body, small wicks Bad: A/D ratio, lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Mostly green body with short upper and lower wicks Advanced/Decline: 0.74, More declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.51%), DJI (+0.20%), RUT (+0.43%), VIX (-6.77%) Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.94%) and Technology (XLK +0.91%) were top. Real Estate (XLRE -0.45%) and Utilities (XLU -0.61%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview It was a record-setting day for the Nasdaq, setting a new all-time high for the first time since April. The other major indexes also had good gains for the day, while the sector list mainly was positive. Investors responded to better than expected existing home sales data and no new surprises from Fed Jerome Powell's testimony to congress. The Nasdaq gained +0.79% for the day and finished the day with its highest close since April. The closing range of 89% and 77% green body represents a bullish session that only paused mid-day to await Powell's comments. Despite the bullish day, there were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.51% for the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) advanced +0.20%. The Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones all faded before close while the Russell 2000 (RUT) remained steady. The RUT closed with a +0.43% gain. The VIX volatility index declined -6.77%. The growth sectors topped the list today, with Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.94%) and Technology (XLK +0.91%) at the top of the list. Only two sectors declined. Real Estate (XLRE -0.45%) and Utilities (XLU -0.61%) closed lower. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.15%. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all declined slightly. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (Wood) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) also advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) gained +2.88%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -0.36%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio remained about the same at 0.582. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is on the fear side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four largest mega-caps gained for the day, continuing to show strength and helping the Nasdaq move higher. Amazon (AMZN) gained +1.49%. Apple (AAPL) advanced +1.27%. Microsoft (MSFT) reached another new all-time high with a +1.10% gain. Alphabet (GOOGL) is nearing a new all-time high with a +0.43% gain today. Nvidia (NVDA), Netflix (NFLX), Facebook (FB), and Exxon Mobil (XOM) were the top mega-caps today. Most mega-caps had positive gains. The biggest losers were Novartis (NVS), Salesforce.com (CRM), Eli Lilly (LLY), and AT&T (T). However, their losses were all under 1%. Gainers also dominated the daily update growth list. Upwork (UPWK), FUTU Holdings (FUTU), Peloton (PTON), and CrowdStrike (CRWD) had the most significant advances. SNAP (SNAP), Zynga (ZNGA), NIO (NIO), and Sumo Digital (SUMO) were at the bottom of the list. NIO and Sumo lost more than 5%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Manufacturing and Services purchasing manager index data, released on Wednesday, gives a view on demand for products in services in their sectors. In addition, new Home Sales data will be available after the market open. Crude Oil Inventories data also comes on Wednesday, after the market opens. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update on Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq rose above 14,200 after attempting to pass the resistance area a few times. We will watch for that area to become a support area if the index pulls back. The one-day trend-line shows another gain for tomorrow, an advance of +0.81%. The trend-line from the 5/12 low points to a +0.25% gain. The five-day trend-line ends with a -0.33% declined for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Two catalysts helped the index move higher today. More robust than expected existing home sales kicked off momentum in the morning. Then a well-received message from Jerome Powell helped in the afternoon. Powell stated that the Fed would not raise interest rates on inflation fears alone. They would need to see real inflation before considering policy change. That message resonates well. The Fed will not rush to raise rates but is also not going to let inflation run wild. This stance from the Fed is making global investors more confident in the US Dollar, US Treasuries, and likewise US equities. That confidence is healthy for the whole market, but especially growth stocks, sending the growth sectors and the Nasdaq higher. Given the momentum, the expectation is for higher tomorrow. Sideways would not be a huge surprise. If we see a pullback in the Nasdaq, then there is likely some catalyst driving people to safety or into sector rotation. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 6/21Summary: Investors moved back into equities on Monday, helping markets rebound from Friday's sell-off. All major indexes and sectors moved higher while stocks ended the day balanced across gains and losses. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, June 21, 2021 Facts: +0.79%, Volume higher, Closing range: 95%, Body: 49% Good: Higher high, long lower wick from bullish rebound off morning low Bad: Lower low, otherwise not much Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Half green body with long lower wick, small upper wick Advanced/Decline: 1.03, One advancing stock for each declining stock Indexes: SPX (+1.40%), DJI (+1.76%), RUT (+2.16%), VIX (-13.66%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +3.21%) and Financials (XLF +1.93%) were top. Utilities (XLU +0.51%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.49%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Investors moved back into equities on Monday, helping markets rebound from Friday's sell-off. All major indexes and sectors moved higher while stocks ended the day balanced across gains and losses. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.79% gain. The volume was lower than Friday's unusually high volume. The 49% body is in the upper half of the candle, above a long lower wick formed just after the market open. The index dropped after open, but found support around 14,000 and moved higher the rest of the day. There were about the same number of advancing stocks as declining stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +1.76%, closing a gap down on Friday. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +1.40% and produced a Marubozu White bullish candle, forming no upper or lower wick. The Russell 2000 (RUT) erased Friday's loss with a +2.16% gain today. The VIX volatility index declined -13.66%. All sectors moved higher today, with cyclical sectors leading the list. Energy (XLE +3.21%) and Financials (XLF +1.93%) were at the top of the list. Industrials (XLI +1.8%) and Materials (XLB +1.63%) were second and third. After heavy selling of cyclical sectors, we expected that some rotation back into these sectors would happen. These are still important sectors for a full economic recovery. Utilities (XLU +0.51%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.49%) were at the bottom, marking fewer defensive moves than last week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) pulled back a bit after gaining 2% last week. Today it declined -0.52%. The US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields rose after declining last week. The 2y Treasury yield remained about the same. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices advanced while Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) rose. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (Wood) rose +2.33% after a few weeks of decline. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) also advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -9.62%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -14.92%. (Time of writing) -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio dropped to 0.585. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is on the fear side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Amazon (AMZN) was the only of the largest four mega-caps to decline today, losing -0.94% on Prime Day. Apple (AAPL) retested the 50d moving average line and then moved higher, gaining +1.41%. Microsoft (MSFT) rose +1.23%. Alphabet (GOOGL) gained +1.42%. Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) topped the list of mega-caps, filled with mostly gainers for today. Bank of America (BAC) and Oracle (ORCL) fill out the top four. At the bottom of the list were Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Nvidia (NVDA), Amazon, and Netflix (NFLX). The daily update growth list was divided almost evenly among gainers and losers. Ehang Holdings (EH), RH (RH), Roku (ROKU), and DoorDash (DOOR) were the top four, each gaining over 3.5% for the day. At the bottom of the list were UP Fintech (TIGR), Pinterest (PINS), FUTU Holding (FUTU), and CrowdStrike (CRWD). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Existing Home Sales for May gets released on Tuesday, after the market open. In the afternoon, Jerome Powell testifies before congress. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock is updated after the market close. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update on Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq found support again at 14,000 and then headed back toward 14,200, range-bound for the past week. The one-day trend-line and the trend-line from the 5/12 low point to a +0.82% advance on Tuesday would break the range and set a new all-time high. The five-day trend-line ends with a -0.21% declined for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up There was a lot of debate over the weekend over the health of the markets. The story isn't over, but today was a move in the right direction toward a continued bull market with new support for growth after the Fed turned hawkish. For tomorrow, we'll look for sideways or higher. If higher, a clear break into a new all-time high on higher volume would be a clear bullish signal. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Market Week in Review - 6/14/2021 - 6/18/2021Summary: The markets were volatile this week, with a clear character shift after the Fed statements on Wednesday. The meeting and comments from the Fed this week shifted the outlook from analysts and investors in surprising ways. In addition, the quadruple witching day on Friday added extra volatility that helped amplify what we might expect in the coming weeks. Notes The Market Week in Review is my weekend homework where I look over what happened in the previous week and what might come in the next week. I occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. If you find this helpful, please let me know in the comments. I am also more than happy to add new perspectives and data points if you have ideas. The structure is the following: A recap of the daily updates that I do here on TradingView. View on the past week What's coming in the next week The Bullish View, The Bearish View Key index levels to watch out for Wrap-up If you have been following my daily updates, you can skip down to "View on the Week." If not, then this first part is a great play-by-play recap for the week. Click the daily charts for more detail on sectors, indexes, and market leaders each day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, June 14, 2021 Facts: +0.74%, Volume higher, Closing range: 99%, Body: 76% Good: High closing range, higher volume, large green body Bad: Advance/decline ratio below 1.0 Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Short lower wick filled opening gap, thick green body, no upper wick Advanced/Decline: 0.86, More declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.18%), DJI (-0.25%), RUT (-0.41%), VIX (+4.73%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +1.01%) and, Communications (XLC +0.66%) were top. Financials (XLF -1.04%) and Materials (XLB -1.23%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways The Nasdaq continued its march higher while the other major indices paused or pulled back. The gains focused on mid and large-cap growth stocks. The index closed with a +0.75% gain on higher volume than Friday. The closing range reached 99% in the last 30 minutes of trading, while the 76% green body represents a steady climb throughout the day. The higher high marks the seventh session in a row to reach a higher high. The close is only 0.25% below a new all-time high. However, there were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, June 15, 2021 Facts: -0.71%, Volume higher, Closing range: 17%, Body: 79% Good: Held above 14,000 support area Bad: Selling most of the day. Lower high and lower low. Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Thick red body with small upper and lower wicks. Advanced/Decline: 0.42, Two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.20%), DJI (-0.27%), RUT (-0.26%), VIX (+3.72%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +1.90%) and Industrials (XLI +0.43%) were top. Technology (XLK -0.61%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.92%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower After higher than expected producer price index data this morning, investors prepared themselves for the Fed comments scheduled on Wednesday. Major indices fell on the fear that Fed officials will start to push for earlier interest rate hikes and tapering of asset purchase programs. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.71% loss for the day, on higher volume. The candle is mostly a red body and represents selling throughout the day as the bears stepped in. The closing range of 17% is above a small lower wick formed from a small rally into close. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, June 16, 2021 Facts: -0.24%, Volume higher, Closing range: 60%, Body: 20% Good: Bounce off low in the afternoon to close back above 14,000 Bad: Big dip after fed news Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Slim red body in the upper half of a long candle. Long lower wick. Advanced/Decline: 0.56, Almost two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.54%), DJI (-0.77%), RUT (-0.23%), VIX (+6.64%) Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.05%) and Financials (XLF -0.11%) were top. Consumer Staples (XLP -1.33%) and Utilities (XLU -1.50%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower The Fed has spoken. The market lit up after the Fed pulled forward projected dates for interest rate hikes into 2023. The US Dollar spiked about 1%, long-term Treasury yields rose, and equities dropped. Equities found support after the initial reaction but couldn't quite recover all the losses. The Nasdaq closed the day with a -0.24% decline. That was better than the -1.20% intraday dip. Volume was higher than the previous day. The candle has a long lower wick underneath a 20% body in the upper half of the candle. The closing range of 60% provides some positive ending to a day that ended in a loss. There were almost two declining stocks for every advancing stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, June 17, 2021 Facts: +0.87%, Volume lower, Closing range: 82%, Body: 82% Good: High closing range after a dip mid-day. No lower wick. Bad: Resistance at 14,200, lower volume, A/D below 1.0 Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Mostly green body with no lower wick, high closing range under small upper wick Advanced/Decline: 0.57, Almost two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.04%), DJI (-0.62%), RUT (-1.18%), VIX (-2.21%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +1.16%) and Health (XLV +0.76%) were top. Financials (XLF -2.90%) and Energy (XLE -3.40%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher Technology stocks moved higher today, helping boost the Nasdaq while the other major indexes retreated. The mix of investments in growth sectors and defensive sectors show some indecision about the new Fed policy. At the same time, there was an apparent sell-off in cyclical sectors. The Nasdaq advanced +0.87% while volume was lower than the previous day. The gains were steady through the morning before a dip mid-day. However, the index recovered and closed near intraday highs. The closing range of 82% matches an 82% body that left no lower wick. There were almost two declining stocks for every advancing stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, June 18, 2021 Facts: -0.92%, Volume higher, Closing range: 18%, Body: 55% Good: Held above yesterday's low, and above 14,000. Bad: Huge volume on move lower, low A/D Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Inside day with a thick red body, longer upper wick, low closing range Advanced/Decline: 0.3, More than three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-1.31%), DJI (-1.58%), RUT (-2.17%), VIX (+16.74%) Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.53%) and Technology (XLK -0.91%) were top. Utilities (XLU -2.60%) and Energy (XLE -2.96%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways The quadruple witching day amplified some rotations that happened yesterday and brought all the major indices lower. Value stocks sold off far more than growth stocks, while the US Dollar continued to strengthen. The Nasdaq closed the day with a -0.92% loss. Volume was much higher than the previous day due to the quadruple witching day when index futures, index options, individual stock futures, and stock options all expire on the same day. The closing range of 18% is below a red body with a visible lower wick and longer upper wick. The high is lower than the previous day, while the low is higher than the previous day, marking an inside day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- View on the Week The markets were volatile this week, with a clear character shift after the Fed statements on Wednesday. The meeting and comments from the Fed this week shifted the outlook from analysts and investors in surprising ways. In addition, the quadruple witching day on Friday added extra volatility that helped amplify what we might expect in the coming weeks. The first thing to note this week is that the Nasdaq outperformed the other indexes. The tech-heavy index outperformed in previous weeks, but this week is a down week in the market, which can be more telling. Moreover, the Nasdaq fell less than the other major indexes, which is notable after the Fed's new hawkish policy. This daily and weekly update is all about learning, and I realized something this week that I wasn't seeing. Heading into Wednesday, I thought investors were worried about the Fed raising interest rates in response to inflation. The reaction to high Producer Price Index data was a pullback in the Nasdaq as it indicated continued inflation. After Wednesday, I realize investors were more worried that the Fed would not raise rates and let inflation run. It makes sense. Inflation usually is good for value stocks and bad for growth stocks. Higher interest rates are also bad for growth stocks, but multiple years of high inflation is the greater enemy. The Fed's dot plots showed that more members see interest rate hikes coming earlier to keep inflation at the 2% target. Although Jerome Powell still states that inflation is transitory, the increased dot plots show that there will be limits to how much they let it run. The reaction is best seen in the US dollar. It increased in strength by 2% this week, with the gains all coming after the Fed comments. Again, that makes sense. The Fed's willingness to control inflation makes the US dollar a safer bet for global investors. You can see the subsequent impact in US Treasuries, with a significant tightening of the spread between long-term and short-term yields. Finally, we can see the reaction in the rotation that was most apparent on Friday's quadruple witching day, which amplified the moves in higher volume. When the equity markets sold off on high volume, growth stocks and tech stocks held up relative to value and cyclical stocks. Some growth stocks even had significant gains. So should we be worried about the Dow Jones Industrial Average gap-down on Friday and the worst week since October 2020? Maybe. But it also makes sense given the other indicators we see. The strengthening US Dollar can impact valuations on the large stable multinational companies in the Dow Jones, just as it can impact the value of silver and gold. But looking closely at the 30 companies in the index, you can almost line them up from value to growth and see that the farther along the spectrum they are to value, the more significant the losses today. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.92% decline for the week. Volume was higher, primarily because of the quadruple witching day on Friday that saw volume 30% higher than usual. The index continued an uptrend on the weekly chart with a higher high and higher low than the previous week. The closing range of 43% is not great, but not terrible either. The S&P 500 (SPX) dropped -1.91% for the week. The Russell 2000 (RUT) was down -4.20%. But it was the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) that made headlines with a -3.45% loss, the worst since October. The VIX volatility gained +32.35% for the week. It was a volatile week in the indexes and the sector list as investors rotated on the Fed's new hawkish stance toward inflation. Energy ( XLE ) led early in the week, but Technology ( XLK ) topped the list by the end of the week, ending the week as the only sector to hold onto gains. In second place was Consumer Discretionary ( XLY ). Growth stocks remained strong compared to Value stocks even in the sell-off that occurred on quadruple witching Friday. The cyclical sectors were at the bottom of the weekly sector list, with Materials ( XLB ) having the worse performance among a drop in commodity prices. The US Treasuries were impacted by the Fed decision, along with the US Dollar. Treasury yields on the 30y and 10y dropped as investors moved back to US dollar and US bonds. However, the 2y yields rose this week as they became less attractive to the longer-term bonds. The High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices declined, Investment Grade Bond (LQD) prices advanced. The US Dollar (DXY) advanced +2.0% for the week. Silver (SILVER) declined -7.57%, and Gold (GOLD) declined -6.04%. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced +1.90%. Timber (WOOD) continues its decline, losing -4.65% this week. Copper (COPPER1!) declined -7.42%. Aluminum (ALI1!) declined -3.50%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Big Four Mega-caps The big four mega-caps looked promising last week, and they look even better this week. Apple (AAPL) joined the other three by breaking out above its 10-week moving average line on higher volume. Amazon (AMZN) continued its breakout last week as it heads into the annual Prime Day event next week. Microsoft (MSFT) retested the 10-week moving average line but ended the week with gains. Alphabet (GOOGL) was the only one of the four with a loss but held well above the 10-week moving average. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Four Recovery Stocks I picked four recovery stocks to track against the indexes and other indicators in this weekly report. Unfortunately, things do not look as well for the four recovery stocks. Exxon Mobil (XOM) lost -2.85%. Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL) dropped -5.85%. Both Exxon and Carnival are still above their 10-week moving average. Delta Airlines (DAL) declined -3.31%, and Marriott (MAR) lost -3.24%, remaining below their 10-week moving averages. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Cryptocurrency I started tracking four major cryptocurrencies on the week in review. The four are Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Bitcoin Cash. The latter two are not the largest by market cap but seem to be well-known and are part of the CIX capital.com index, tracking five cryptocurrencies, including these four (Ripple is the fifth). The four cryptocurrencies continue struggling to find lasting gains. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -9.95% this week. Ethereum (ETHUSD) fell -12.64%. Litecoin (LTCUSD) dropped -9.49%. Bitcoin Cash (BCHUSD) declined -9.17%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio (PCCE) moved higher, ending the week at 0.716. A contrarian indicator, when the put/call ratio is below 0.7, it signals overly bullish sentiment and could mean an overbought market. The CNN Fear & Greed Index moved the fear side of the scale. The NAAIM money manager exposure index rose to 98.52. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Week Ahead Monday Short-term Treasury Bill auctions are on Monday. Fed John Williams speaks on Monday afternoon. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update on Monday. Tuesday Existing Home Sales for May gets released on Tuesday, after the market open. In the afternoon, Jerome Powell testifies before congress. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock is updated after the market close. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update on Tuesday. Wednesday Manufacturing and Services purchasing manager index data, released on Wednesday, gives a view on demand for products in services in their sectors. In addition, new Home Sales data will be available after the market open. Crude Oil Inventories data also comes on Wednesday, after the market opens. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update on Wednesday. Thursday For Thursday, data will be available for Durable Goods Orders. GDP data for Q1 should not change much over previously released numbers. We will also get the Initial Jobless Claims data before the markets open. Finally, there are Fed Bank Stress Test results to be made available after the market closes. Earnings reports on Thursday will include Nike (NKE), Accenture (ACN), FedEx (FDX), Blackberry (BB), and Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY). The last two have been popular meme stocks. Friday More consumer pricing data released on Friday morning will give another boost to inflation worries but may be tempered by the fact that the Fed is now willing to control inflation. Consumer Expectations and Consumer Sentiment are also important data to be available after the market opens. CarMax (KMX) earnings on Friday may be interesting given the rise in used car prices. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bullish Side There seems to be an apparent rotation back into growth stocks, which signals bullishness even as some of the contrarian indicators moving to fear. For CANSLIM investors, the Nasdaq moved into a Power Trend this week. The low of the index held above the 21d EMA for over ten days. The 21d EMA is above the 50d MA for over seven days, and the 50d MA is in an uptrend. The positive day on Thursday signals the power trend. There's no telling how long it would last or if it’s a false signal, but right now, the Nasdaq still looks bullish. It seems investors are balancing fears of inflation with the fact that the Fed recognizes it could be less than transitory and is willing to change policy to control inflation if it continues. Those changes are still far into the future enough to give growth stocks some room to move up. Goldman Sachs declared this past week that Value is winning now but that by the end of the year, Growth stocks would outperform. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bearish Side It may look great on the Nasdaq, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average just had its worst week since last October. As much as I can write it off about the rotation from value to growth, it still looks like a concerning chart. If the Dow Jones continues to move lower, it will impact the other major indices and the rest of the market. Although the Fed is overall hawkish on inflation now, Employment data was worse than expected this week. That could put the Fed in a situation where it has to balance inflation worries against concerns of a faltered employment recovery. Likely it will work itself out, but a shaky recovery amidst short-term inflation worries could cause more volatility. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Key Nasdaq Levels to Watch The Nasdaq dipped below but closed above the 14,000 area. It nearly reached a new all-time high but met resistance. It did set a record close on this past Monday. On the positive side, the levels are: The high of this past week was 14,196.21. The all-time high is at 14,211.57. The mid-point of the regression trend from the 5/12 low points to 14,390 by the end of the week. On the downside, there are a few key levels: 14,000 has been a key area of support/resistance. The 10d MA is at 14,028.65. The low of this past week is 13,903.73. The 21d EMA is at 13,888.95. The 50d MA is at 13,782.40. There is a pivot at 13,548.93. This is a "higher low" in the current uptrend. There is a support area at 13,000. 13,002.54 is a pivot from May. Below this level is a correction. 12,789.84 is the 200d MA. This could be a support point if the index falls below 13,000. 12,397.05 is a low pivot point from the early March dip. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was an interesting week to observe the indexes and indicators I use in the daily update and week in review. The Nasdaq looks bullish, but the Dow Jones Industrial seems bearish. There is a shift in sentiment toward the US Dollar that could be the best indicator to watch. It will impact how much money flows into other US dollar-based investments, including Bonds and Equities. It could also shift investors from Value back to Growth. Looking at another view of what's going on, we can again visit the growth vs. value chart. The market could quickly reverse the move, but for now, growth is getting investors' intention again. If Nasdaq's Power Trend plays out, we can expect more gains and new highs. If it's a false positive, then perhaps it's time to go to the sidelines and wait for better conditions. The stocks in your portfolio will be the ultimate decision-maker for you. Good luck, stay healthy, and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
6
Daily Market Update for 6/18Summary: The quadruple witching day amplified some rotations that happened yesterday and brought all the major indices lower. Value stocks sold off far more than growth stocks, while the US Dollar continued to strengthen Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, June 18, 2021 Facts: -0.92%, Volume higher, Closing range: 18%, Body: 55% Good: Held above yesterday's low, and above 14,000. Bad: Huge volume on move lower, low A/D Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Inside day with a thick red body, longer upper wick, low closing range Advanced/Decline: 0.3, More than three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-1.31%), DJI (-1.58%), RUT (-2.17%), VIX (+16.74%) Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.53%) and Technology (XLK -0.91%) were top. Utilities (XLU -2.60%) and Energy (XLE -2.96%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The quadruple witching day amplified some rotations that happened yesterday and brought all the major indices lower. Value stocks sold off far more than growth stocks, while the US Dollar continued to strengthen. The Nasdaq closed the day with a -0.92% loss. Volume was much higher than the previous day due to the quadruple witching day when index futures, index options, individual stock futures, and stock options all expire on the same day. The closing range of 18% is below a red body with a visible lower wick and longer upper wick. The high is lower than the previous day, while the low is higher than the previous day, marking an inside day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) closed with a -1.58% decline today, finishing the worst weekly loss since October. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -1.31%, while the Russell 2000 (RUT) fell -2.17%. The gap down today and weekly loss on the DJI is something to keep an eye on. However, it is not a surprise that the DJI is falling rapidly among the US dollar's considerable gains. Large international companies benefit from a weaker dollar. The VIX volatility index advanced +16.74%. All sectors moved lower today. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.53%) and Technology (XLK -0.91%) topped the sector list with the smallest losses. Utilities (XLU -2.60%) and Energy (XLE -2.96%) were the bottom two sectors. Financials (XLF -2.41%) is moving lower due to the lower yields in Treasuries. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) strengthened for a third day, rising +0.46%. It is up 2% for the week. The US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields continued to decline while the 2y Treasury yield rose. The spread between long-term and short-term Treasuries is tightening rapidly. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices declined while Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (Wood) continues to slide, dropping -1.51% today. Almost -5% for the week. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) also declined. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -5.93%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -6.07% -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.716. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved further to the fear side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Amazon (AMZN) continues to show strength among the four largest mega-caps, declining only -0.07% today. Microsoft (MSFT) declined -0.56%. Apple (AAPL) fell -1.01%. Alphabet (GOOGL) lost -1.34%. Only a handful of mega-caps gained for the day. At the top of the list are Adobe (ADBE), PayPal (PYPL), Tesla (TSLA), and Netflix (NFLX). The biggest losers today are Toyota Motor (TM ), ASML Holding (ASML), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), and Intel (INTC). The daily update growth list had more gainers than losers. Fiverr (FVRR), DocuSign (DOCU), Lemonade (LMND), and Roku (ROKU) led the list. At the bottom of the list are Beyond Meat (BYND), Penn National Gaming (PENN), Digital Turbine (APPS), and Ehang Holdings (EH). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Short-term Treasury Bill auctions are on Monday. Fed John Williams speaks on Monday afternoon. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update on Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index continues to build support in the 14,000 to 14,200 trading range. The trend-line from the 5/12 low points to a +1.52% advance on Monday and a new all-time high. The five-day trend-line ends with a +0.34% advance to start the week. The one-day trend-line points to a -0.25% decline for Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Quadruple witching always makes for a strange day in the markets and today was no exception. If you look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI), you'd think the market is crashing, and maybe it is. But if you look at the Nasdaq, you get a different story, closing the week with an inside day and still in an uptrend on the weekly chart. Looking at another view of what's going on, we can again visit the growth vs. value chart. The market could quickly reverse the move, but for now, growth is getting investors' intention again. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 6/17Summary: Technology stocks moved higher today, helping boost the Nasdaq while the other major indexes retreated. The mix of investments in growth sectors and defensive sectors show some indecision about the new Fed policy. At the same time, there was an apparent sell-off in cyclical sectors. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, June 17, 2021 Facts: +0.87%, Volume lower, Closing range: 82%, Body: 82% Good: High closing range after a dip mid-day. No lower wick. Bad: Resistance at 14,200, lower volume, A/D below 1.0 Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Mostly green body with no lower wick, high closing range under small upper wick Advanced/Decline: 0.57, Almost two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.04%), DJI (-0.62%), RUT (-1.18%), VIX (-2.21%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +1.16%) and Health (XLV +0.76%) were top. Financials (XLF -2.90%) and Energy (XLE -3.40%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Technology stocks moved higher today, helping boost the Nasdaq while the other major indexes retreated. The mix of investments in growth sectors and defensive sectors show some indecision about the new Fed policy. At the same time, there was an apparent sell-off in cyclical sectors. The Nasdaq advanced +0.87% while volume was lower than the previous day. The gains were steady through the morning before a dip mid-day. However, the index recovered and closed near intraday highs. The closing range of 82% matches an 82% body that left no lower wick. There were almost two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The other major indexes didn't fare as well. The Russell 2000 (RUT) fell -1.18%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined -0.62%. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.04%. The VIX volatility index declined -2.21%. Technology (XLK +1.16%), Health (XLV +0.76%), and Utilities (XLU +0.55%) were the top three sectors for the day. The four cyclical sectors of Industrials (XLI -1.54%), Materials (XLB -2.23%), Financials (XLF -2.90%), and Energy (XLE -3.40%) all had significant declines. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) strengthened for another day, rising +0.55%. The US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields declined. The 2y Treasury yield rose. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (Wood) continues to slide, dropping -1.96% today. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) also declined significantly. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -0.67%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced +0.19% -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined to 0.609. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved to the fear side of neutral. The NAAIM money manager exposure index rose to 98.52. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The four largest mega-caps gained on higher volume today, helping boost the Technology sector and the Nasdaq. Amazon (AMZN) had the biggest move with a +2.17% advance. The stock gained nearly 10% in the last eight trading days, setting it toward new all-time highs. Microsoft (MSFT) gained +1.37%. Apple (AAPL) advanced +1.26%. Alphabet (GOOGL) rose +0.80%. All four are showing strength, and trading above moving averages, a good sign for broader gains in the market. Nvidia (NVDA), PayPal (PYPL), Amazon, and Tesla (TSLA) were the top mega-caps gaining 2% or better. Bank of America (BAC), Exxon Mobil (XOM), JP Morgan Chase (JPM), and Chevron (CVX) were the bottom four. Both ends of the mega-cap list closely reflect the sector list performance. Almost all of the growth stocks in the daily update list gained today. Sumo Digital (SUMO), Enphase (ENPH), Solar Edge (SEDG), and Cloudflare (NET) were the top four with over 6% gains. GrowGeneration (GRWG), RH (RH), and Penn National Gaming (PENN) were at the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There is not much significant economic news scheduled for Friday. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance Hesitation before a new all-time high is causing a resistance area to form near 14,200. The one-day trend-line points to a +0.86% advance for Thursday. The trend-line from the 5/12 low points to a +0.49% advance. The five-day trend-line ends with a -0.16% decline for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up After yesterday's sudden sell-off and then recovery, following the Fed view on rate hikes in 2023, investor reactions were mixed today. The mix of investment in growth stocks and defensive stocks shows that not everyone is at the same comfort level with the Fed changing policy. One place they were very decisive was in the sell-off of cyclical sectors, some of which may be due to a drop in commodity futures as well. There are multiple factors at play beyond the interest rates and Fed outlook. The economy is still recovering, and cyclicals will continue to play in the recovery, so expect rotation back into those sectors at some point. For now, we have the long lower wick yesterday that followed through into gains today. To further confirm the continued uptrend, I'd expect to see the index move higher tomorrow. Otherwise, it would appear the optimism was short-lived, and there is more fear lurking around inflation and interest rate hikes. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 6/16Summary: The Fed has spoken. The market came to life after the Fed pulled forward projected dates for interest rate hikes into 2023. As a result, the US Dollar spiked about 1%, long-term Treasury yields rose, and equities dropped. Equities found support after the initial reaction but couldn't quite recover all the losses. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, June 16, 2021 Facts: -0.24%, Volume higher, Closing range: 60%, Body: 20% Good: Bounce off low in the afternoon to close back above 14,000 Bad: Big dip after fed news Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Slim red body in the upper half of a long candle. Long lower wick. Advanced/Decline: 0.56, Almost two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.54%), DJI (-0.77%), RUT (-0.23%), VIX (+6.64%) Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.05%) and Financials (XLF -0.11%) were top. Consumer Staples (XLP -1.33%) and Utilities (XLU -1.50%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The Fed has spoken. The market came to life after the Fed pulled forward projected dates for interest rate hikes into 2023. As a result, the US Dollar spiked about 1%, long-term Treasury yields rose, and equities dropped. Equities found support after the initial reaction but couldn't quite recover all the losses. The Nasdaq closed the day with a -0.24% decline. That was better than the -1.20% intraday dip. Volume was higher than the previous day. The candle has a long lower wick underneath a 20% body in the upper half of the candle. The closing range of 60% provides some positive ending to a day that ended in a loss. There were almost two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined -0.23%. The S&P 500 (SPX) slid -0.54%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell -0.77%. The VIX volatility index rose +6.64%. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.05%) was the only sector to have a gain for the day. Financials (XLF -0.11%) was the next best performer. Consumer Staples (XLP -1.33%) and Utilities (XLU -1.50%) were at the bottom of the sector list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) rose +0.98%. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields all advanced. Shorter-term Treasuries sold off more than longer-term bonds, flattening the yield curve. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (Wood) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -4.52%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -7.00%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.677. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved to the fear side of neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Amazon (AMZN) was able to close with a +0.95% gain today. Apple (AAPL) dipped below its 50 MA but was able to close above the line with a decline of -0.39% today. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) lost -0.38% and -0.53%. Amazon, Tesla (TSLA), Toyota Motor (TM ), and JP Morgan Chase (JPM) topped the mega-cap list today. Most mega-caps declined for the day. Visa (V), Facebook (FB), Walmart (WMT), and Oracle (ORCL) were at the bottom of the list. Oracle declined 7% after disappointing investors with their current FY guidance. It recovered a bit before close, ending the day with a -5.59% loss. The daily update growth stock list was a mix of winners and losers today. Enphase (ENPH), Chewy (CHWY), MongoDB, and Solar Edge (SEDG) were the top gainers. At the bottom of the list were Facebook (FB), Ehang Holdings (EH), SNAP (SNAP), and FUTU Holdings (FUTU). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Initial Jobless Claims data is expected to continue to improve on Thursday. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index will also be released before the market opens. Adobe (ADBE), Kroger (KR), and Jabil (JBL) release earnings on Thursday. The Jabil report will be before the market opens. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index dipped below the 14,000 support area but quickly recovered to close back above the area. The trend-line from the 5/12 low points to a +1.08% advance for Thursday. The five-day trend-line ends with a +0.55% gain. The one-day trend-line points to a -1.05% decline for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It's hard to tell where investors are heading with the Fed news today. The infamous dot plots show more officials leaning toward 2023 interest rate hikes. And yet, the Fed reiterated its stance that it would wait until there was substantial further progress before introducing changes. The initial reaction was a sudden dip in the indexes, but then the prices recovered, heading into the close. Based on the Nasdaq chart, I've got an expectation for sideways or lower tomorrow. The long lower wick suggests a possibility for higher. But let's be honest. Who knows. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 6/15Summary: After higher than expected producer price index data this morning, investors prepared themselves for the Fed comments scheduled on Wednesday. Major indices fell on the fear that Fed officials will start to push for earlier interest rate hikes and tapering of asset purchase programs. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, June 15, 2021 Facts: -0.71%, Volume higher, Closing range: 17%, Body: 79% Good: Held above 14,000 support area Bad: Selling most of the day. Lower high and lower low. Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Thick red body with small upper and lower wicks. Advanced/Decline: 0.42, Two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.20%), DJI (-0.27%), RUT (-0.26%), VIX (+3.72%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +1.90%) and Industrials (XLI +0.43%) were top. Technology (XLK -0.61%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.92%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview After higher than expected producer price index data this morning, investors prepared themselves for the Fed comments scheduled on Wednesday. Major indices fell on the fear that Fed officials will start to push for earlier interest rate hikes and tapering of asset purchase programs. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.71% loss for the day, on higher volume. The candle is predominantly a red body and represents selling throughout the day as the bears stepped in. The closing range of 17% is above a small lower wick formed from a small rally into the close. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The tech-heavy Nasdaq had the worst losses for the day. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.20%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lost -0.27%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) fell -0.26%. The VIX volatility index rose +3.72%. Energy (XLE +1.90%) and Industrials (XLI +0.43%) were the top gaining sectors for the day. Technology (XLK -0.61%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.92%) were at the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) was flat with only a +0.01% advance. The US 30y and 10y Treasury yields remained about the same while the 2y yield dropped. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices declined while Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (Wood) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -0.89%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -1.49%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.541. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is at neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four largest mega-caps declined today, but all remain above their key 50 day moving average and 21d exponential moving average lines. Alphabet (GOOGL) declined -0.84%, Apple (AAPL) dropped -0.64%. Microsoft (MSFT) declined -0.59%. Amazon (AMZN) lost just -0.02%. All of these declines were on lighter volume. Exxon Mobile (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) topped the mega-cap list with 3.6% and 2.2% gains. Toyota Motor (TM ) and AT&T (T) were the next two best-performing mega-caps. At the bottom of the list were Adobe (ADBE), Netflix (NFLX), Alibaba (BABA), and Tesla (TSLA). Only Pinterest (PINS) and D.R. Horton (DHI) gained for the day in the daily update growth stock list. The worst losers were Up Fintech (TIGR), with a -16.3% loss, Lemonade (LMND), Roku (ROKU), and GrowGeneration (GRWG). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Build Permits and Housing Starts data will be released in the morning on Wednesday. Crude Oil Inventories get an update after the market opens. The most important event for the week will come in the afternoon. The Fed will release Meeting Minutes and a Fed Interest Rate Decision at 2:00 pm. The Fed Economic Projections will follow that. Investors will watch these updates from the Fed very closely, and the reactions could be oversized in either direction. There are no significant earnings releases for this daily update on Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index remained above the 14,000 support area throughout the day. The five-day trend-line and the trend-line from the 5/12 low points to a +067% advance for Wednesday. The one-day trend-line points to a -0.58% decline for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up I set the expectation for sideways yesterday, not sure which way the index would go based on several days of gains and resistance at the all-time high. Fear won out after the producer price index data was higher than expected. Based on the red candle, the expectation will be for Sideways or Lower, but the result really depends on the reaction to the Fed statements in the afternoon. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 6/14Summary: The Nasdaq continued its march higher while the other major indices paused or pulled back. The gains focused on mid and large-cap growth stocks. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, June 14, 2021 Facts: +0.74%, Volume higher, Closing range: 99%, Body: 76% Good: High closing range, higher volume, large green body Bad: Advance/decline ratio below 1.0 Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Short lower wick filled opening gap, thick green body, no upper wick Advanced/Decline: 0.86, More declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.18%), DJI (-0.25%), RUT (-0.41%), VIX (+4.73%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +1.01%) and, Communications (XLC +0.66%) were top. Financials (XLF -1.04%) and Materials (XLB -1.23%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The Nasdaq continued its march higher while the other major indices paused or pulled back. The gains focused on mid and large-cap growth stocks. The index closed with a +0.75% gain on higher volume than Friday. The closing range reached 99% in the last 30 minutes of trading, while the 76% green body represents a steady climb throughout the day. The higher high marks the seventh session in a row to reach a higher high. The close is only 0.25% below a new all-time high. However, there were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) closed at another all-time high with a +0.18% advance today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined -0.25%, while the Russell 2000 (RUT) lost -0.41%. The VIX volatility index rose +4.73%. Technology (XLK +1.01%) and Communications (XLC +0.66%) were top, helped by mid and large-cap growth stocks. Financials (XLF -1.04%) and Materials (XLB -1.23%) were the bottom sectors for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) was flat with only a -0.01% decline. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields rose for a second day. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined slightly. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (Wood) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) declined, Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) rose +3.89%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced +2.89%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined to 0.469. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is on the greed side but still near neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Apple (AAPL) broke out today with a +2.46% gain taking the price above the 50d MA. All four largest mega-caps are now above their 50d MA and 21d EMA. Amazon (AMZN) added to recent gains with a +1.11% advance today. Microsoft (MSFT) gained +0.78%. Alphabet (GOOGL) gained +0.77%. Adobe (ADBE), Salesforce.com (CRM), Apple, and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) topped the mega-cap list. At the bottom of the list were Cisco Systems (CSCO), Bank of America (BAC), Pfizer (PFE), and JP Morgan Chase (JPM). Ehang Holdings (EH), FUTU Holdings (FUTU), Fastly (FSLY), and Square (SQ) were the top four growth stocks in the daily update list. At the bottom of the list were Sumo Digital (SUMO), Draft Kings (DKNG), Penn National Gaming (PENN), and Digital Turbine (APPS). The growth list is mostly advancing stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Producer Price Index data is scheduled for release on Tuesday. We will also get an update on Retail sales data. Both sets of data come before the market open. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock data will be released after the market close. Earnings reports for Tuesday include Oracle (ORCL), H&R Block (HRB), and La-Z-Boy (LZB). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index came within 0.25% of a new all-time high today. Expect some resistance at the all-time high area before moving higher. The one-day trend-line points to a +0.13% gain for Tuesday. The five-day trend-line leads to a small loss of -0.04%. The trend-line from the 5/12 low points to a -0.28% decline for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The momentum for the Nasdaq continues, albeit at lower volume today. The index is getting close to a new all-time high where we can expect some resistance before it moves higher. The expectation is for sideways tomorrow. Higher would be a positive surprise and indicate a very bullish market. Lower will need to be evaluated but would likely come from caution as we head into the Fed comments on Wednesday. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
A Comprehensive NASDAQ Analysis..!First, let's define the NASDAQ Composite Index: The Nasdaq Composite Index is a large market-cap-weighted index of more than 2,500 stocks, American depositary receipts (ADRs), and real estate investment trusts (REITs), among others. The index is calculated constantly throughout the trading day with the final value reported at 4:16 p.m. daily once prices have fully settled after the 4:00 p.m. ET market close. The Index's composition is nearly 50% technology, with consumer services, health care, and financials the next most prominent industries. What Is an Uptrend? An uptrend describes the price movement of a financial asset when the overall direction is upward. In an uptrend, each successive peak and trough is higher than the ones found earlier in the trend. The uptrend is therefore composed of higher swing lows and higher swing highs. As long as the price is making these higher swing lows and higher swing highs, the uptrend is considered intact. Some market participants only choose to trade during uptrends. These "long" trend traders utilize various strategies to take advantage of the tendency for the price to make higher highs and higher lows. What Is V-Shaped Recovery? V-shaped recovery is a type of economic recession and recovery that resembles a "V" shape in charting. Specifically, a V-shaped recovery represents the shape of a chart of economic measures economists create when examining recessions and recoveries. A V-shaped recovery involves a sharp rise back to a previous peak after a sharp decline in these metrics. Complex corrections Complex corrections are multiple ABC corrections that are joined by a three-wave price move identified as wave X. Each of the waves in a complex correction adheres to the basic Elliott structures identified for corrections. That is, Zigzags, Flats, or Triangles. A: Don't trade them on purpose. If you find yourself in one, find an appropriate exit point or be prepared to wait out the correction and return to the trend. B: They provide no known predictive value, although we can predict you will be miserable if you are holding through one of them. C: A complex correction will first become obvious when your expected movement into the next wave of a correction fails to breakout and instead pivots and reverses. You can then mark the 3 wave structure as Wave X and expect another one or two A, B, C corrections to follow. A one-year Bullish channel: What Is a Price Channel? A price channel occurs when a security's price oscillates between two parallel lines, whether they be horizontal, ascending, or descending. Price channels are quite useful in identifying breakouts, which is when a security's price breaches either the upper or lower channel trendline. Traders can sell when price approaches the price channel's upper trendline and buy when it tests the lower trendline. Fibonacci Fan approach: A Fibonacci fan is a method of plotting support and resistance levels based on the ratios provided by the Fibonacci series. Trendlines are drawn at intervals of 23.6, 38.2, 50, and 61.8 percent apart to predict retracements. The Fibonacci ratio, also known as the "golden ratio," is roughly 1.618. This ratio is found throughout the natural and social sciences. Half a Century: A Decade: Post Pandemic era: What Is "Sell in May and Go Away"? "Sell in May and go away" is a well-known financial-world adage. It is based on the historical underperformance of some stocks in the "summery" six-month period commencing in May and ending in October, compared to the "wintery" six-month period from November to April. If an investor follows this strategy, they would divest their equity holdings in May (or at least, the late spring) and invest again in November (or the mid-autumn). Some investors find this strategy more rewarding than staying in the equity markets throughout the year. They subscribe to the belief that, as warm weather sets in, low volumes and the lack of market participants (presumably on vacations) can make for a somewhat riskier, or at a minimum lackluster, market period. From 1950 to around 2013, the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted lower returns during the May to October period, compared with the November to April period. Since 2013, statistics suggest this seasonal pattern may not be the case anymore, and those who follow it may miss out on significant stock market gains. What about this summer??? I will not publish my answer to this question publicly..! I did a comprehensive analysis of the NASDAQ Composite Index (IXIC) in the past 50 years. I cancel recording a YouTube video on this analysis because data analysis of my previous videos shows my followers did not find them interesting. I have 5450 followers on the TradingView platform, 987 on my free educational channel who use my analyses freely. In the past 2 months, I recorded 7 videos, and 318 individuals subscribed to my YouTube Channel. These statistics convinced me not to waste time. I published the analysis in the usual article format, a more detailed version will be available for patrons and paid subscribers. Moshkelgosha (SniperTrader) References: www.investopedia.com www.investopedia.com www.investopedia.com www.investopedia.com www.bata4u.com www.investopedia.com www.investopedia.com
TVC:IXIC
by Moshkelgosha
9
NASDAQ 1 last Run BULLISH TARGET is 17000Each wave of this extension had an ABC. We will start wave 5 this week and the gainage will happen quickly. This summer will be hot. after 17K is reached on this index, then we crash. PROOF Indicators: Wolfpack curling up for another run Room on RSI for squeeze Buy signal on the Potato indicator CHART + ELLIOT ANALYSIS The same Fractal of the previous wave will play out. (ABC transitions in the Elliot wave EXTENSION) The top of the channel is confluent with the Fibonacci!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by ILuminosity
Market Week in Review - 6/7/2021 - 6/11/2021Summary: It was a week of slow but sure advances, with every day reaching a higher high than the previous day. Only one day saw a decline in the closing price, and that was only -0.09%. Volume was high entering the week and then wained later in the week while the advance/decline line remained above 1.0 on average through the week. Crazy meme stocks aside, the week wasn't exhilarating, but it's a good week of building support for higher prices. Notes The Market Week in Review is my weekend homework where I look over what happened in the previous week and what might come in the next week. I occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. If you find this helpful, please let me know in the comments. I am also more than happy to add new perspectives and data points if you have ideas. The structure is the following: A recap of the daily updates that I do here on TradingView. View on the past week What's coming in the next week The Bullish View, The Bearish View Key index levels to watch out for Wrap-up If you have been following my daily updates, you can skip down to "The Meaning of Life." If not, then this first part is a great play-by-play recap for the week. Click the daily charts for more detail on sectors, indexes, and market leaders each day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, June 7, 2021 Facts: +0.49%, Volume higher, Closing range: 93%, Body: 76% Good: Positive move on higher volume, good breadth. Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Small upper and lower wick surrounding a thick green body Advanced/Decline: 1.47, Three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.08%), DJI (-0.36%), RUT (+1.43%), VIX (+0.00%) Sectors: Real Estate (XLRE +0.94%) and Communications (XLC +0.52%) were top. Industrials (XLI -0.69%) and Materials (XLB -1.22%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher Growth investors seemed cautious in the first half of the session but turned bullish by the close. The caution showed up in the leading sectors after the market opened. As the morning ended, the action began rotating back toward growth. The Nasdaq gained +0.49%, on higher volume. A short lower and upper wick surrounding a 76% green body represents the steady climb throughout the day. The closing range of 93% came after the index made a late afternoon intraday high, dipped, and quickly recovered. There were three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, June 8, 2021 Facts: +0.31%, Volume higher, Closing range: 62%, Body: 14% Good: Positive move on higher volume, higher high, higher low Bad: Red body, indecisive candle, expected resistance at 14,000 Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Thin red body in upper half of candle, longer lower wick Advanced/Decline: 1.16, More advancing stocks than declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.02%), DJI (-0.09%), RUT (+1.06%), VIX (+3.83%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +0.86%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.81%) were top. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.84%) and Utilities (XLU -0.85%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower The growth trade is continuing to build steam as investors await more inflation data later this week. The cautious start yesterday morning abated, and investors slowly rotated back into some growth and cyclical sectors today. Meme stocks continued crazy moves. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.31% gain on higher volume. A long lower wick formed in the morning selling after a gap-up open that tested 14,000 resistance. Despite the morning selling, the index recovered to close just below where it opened, creating a thin 14% red body in the upper half of the candle. There were more advancing stocks than declining stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, June 9, 2021 Facts: -0.09%, Volume lower, Closing range: 5%, Body: 71% Good: Higher high, higher low, low above Monday's high Bad: Could not stay above 14,000 Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Mostly red body, no lower wick, short upper wick Advanced/Decline: 0.86, More declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.18%), DJI (-0.44%), RUT (-0.71%), VIX (+4.92%) Sectors: Health (XLV +0.97%) and Utilities (XLU +0.89%) were top. Financials (XLF -0.94%) and Industrials (XLI -1.02%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower The major indices bounced around today while investors await inflation data released by the Labor Department tomorrow. A dip in Treasury yields helped boost some large mega-caps and growth stocks, but stocks in the Nasdaq did not share the gains broadly. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.09% decline after briefly rising above 14,000 for the first time since early May. Volume was lower than the previous day. The candle is mostly red body with a closing range of 5%. The upper wick formed just after the open. The index approached 14,000 again in the early afternoon but reversed after the 10y note auction. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, June 10, 2021 Facts: +0.78%, Volume lower, Closing range: 91%, Body: 68% Good: High closing range, close above 14,000 Bad: Lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Outside day, mostly green body with a longer lower wick Advanced/Decline: 0.66, Three declining stocks for every two advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.47%), DJI (+0.06%), RUT (-0.68%), VIX (-10.0%) Sectors: Health (XLV +1.71%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.02%) were top. Materials (XLB -0.60%) and Financials (XLF -1.17%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher Consumer price data was higher than expected, but not that high. After an initial premarket reaction, the major indices moved higher on the day while yields continued their drop and volatility moved out of the market. The Nasdaq advanced +0.78% on lower volume and closed above 14,000. The candle is mostly green body with a short lower wick and even shorter upper wick. The high closing range of 91% and body of 68% is bullish, but there were three declining stocks for every two advancing stocks and volume overall was lower. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, June 11, 2021 Facts: +0.35%, Volume lower, Closing range: 100%, Body: 61% Good: 100% closing range with good advance/decline ratio Bad: Lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Short lower wick under green body, no upper wick Advanced/Decline: 1.2, More advancing stocks than declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.19%), DJI (+0.04%), RUT (+1.06%), VIX (-2.79%) Sectors: Financials (XLF +0.64%) and Technology (XLK +0.60%) were top. Real Estate (XLRE -0.63%) and Health (XLV -0.71%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher The gains in equities were small but steady through this week. On Friday, the market rallied into close and headed into the weekend with a confidence boost. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.35%, capping a week of gains that saw every day reach higher than the previous day. Volume was lower and faded in the last three days. Today's candle ended with a 100% closing range, thanks to a rally in the final 30 minutes of the session. The small lower wick is under a 61% green body. There were more advancing stocks than declining stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- View on the Week It was a week of slow but sure advances, with every day reaching a higher high than the previous day. Only one day saw a decline in the closing price, and that was only -0.09%. Volume was high entering the week and then wained later in the week while the advance/decline line remained above 1.0 on average through the week. Crazy meme stocks aside, the week wasn't exhilarating, but it's a good week of building support for higher prices. Compare these past three weeks to the weeks from March 25 to April 16. Those weeks led to a new all-time high, but the support was not there, and the index quickly retreated. It's interesting to go back to the weekly updates from that period and compare the underlying support in the market. The chart shows several gap-up opens as the index rallied, but the gains were driven mainly by a few big mega-caps, and the advance/decline ratio remained below 1.0 during the same period. Consumer demand was rising while a fire breaks out in a Japan chipmaker facility and a ship blocks the Suez canal, disrupting supply chains across industries. Biden released his infrastructure plans, sending commodity prices even higher. The coming inflation alarm should have been so easy to see, but investors were still moving money back into big tech and growth stocks. Finally, on Friday, 4/30, inflation data surprises investors sending the index lower and eventually back down to 13,000. It also didn't help that Janet Yellen hinted toward higher interest rates, and hackers attacked an oil pipeline on the east coast of the US. The past three weeks, including this week, we have seen gains in the index while investors face the reality of inflation and growing confidence in the Fed's promises not to change monetary policy. However, while they were building positions back into growth stocks, there is also an indication of caution. We aren't clear of all the worries yet. Everyone will be looking closely at comments in the Fed meeting minutes and statements made this coming week. But for now, it seems we have much more stable growth in prices and a path toward higher highs. The Nasdaq closed with a +1.85% gain for the week. Volume was lower than the previous week. The closing range of 100% is thanks to a rally in the last 30 minutes of trading on Friday. There is a barely visible lower wick, while the weekly candle is mostly green, representing the consistent gains through the week. The Russell 2000 (RUT) gained +2.16% for the week as it moves above a base, forming since March. The S&P 500 (SPX) closed the week at a record high, gaining +0.42% for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined -0.80% this week. The VIX volatility moved -4.59% lower, closing the week at pre-pandemic levels. It was a mix of defensive sectors and growth stocks at the top of the sector list this week, while the cyclical sectors took a step back. Real Estate ( XLRE ) led the sector list, continuing to gain on a solid housing market, higher rents, as well as a defense against potential inflation. Health Care ( XLV ) also rallied this week, ending the week in second place on the sector list. Eli Lilly ( LLY ) helped boost the sector with news that the FDA may approve a new Alzheimer's therapy. The stock and the sector faded late in the week on the controversy over statements made by the company. Technology ( XLK ) and Consumer Discretionary ( XLY ) were third and fourth on the list, with steady increases throughout the week as investors became more confident in the growth trade. The cyclical stocks fell this past week. Financials ( XLF ) suffered from lower treasury yields, potentially impacting interest rates that drive revenue for the sector. Industrials ( XLI ) and Materials ( XLB ) declined as more of congress pushes back on Biden's infrastructure spending proposals. The US Treasury 30y, 10y, and 2y yields declined for another week, and the spread between long and short-term yields tightened significantly. The High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Bond (LQD) prices advanced. The US Dollar (DXY) advanced +0.42% for the week. Silver (SILVER) declined -0.35%, and Gold (GOLD) declined -0.70%. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced +2.58%, continuing to move toward highs in 2018. Timber (WOOD) continues its decline, losing -2.04% this week. This is the fifth week of declines. Copper (COPPER1!) advanced +0.76%. Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced +0.42%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Big Four Mega-caps The big four mega-caps look promising this week. Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT) moved above their 10-week moving average lines, with Amazon gaining +4.39% and Microsoft gaining +2.83%. Amazon's gain comes after several weeks of support at the 40-week moving average line. Microsoft's gain was after several weeks of resistance at the 10-week line. Apple (AAPL) gained +1.16% but still closed below the 10-week moving average. Alphabet (GOOGL) continues to show the most strength among the four with a +1.53% gain this week and remaining above the 10-week moving average since early in April. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Four Recovery Stocks I picked four recovery stocks to track against the indexes and other indicators in this weekly report. Exxon Mobil (XOM) rose +1.17% this week while oil prices continuing to rise. Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL) declined -2.00%. Delta (DAL) and Marriott (MAR) gained +1.13% and +1.00% as both form a base just below the 10w moving average line. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Cryptocurrency I started tracking four major cryptocurrencies on the week in review. The four are Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Bitcoin Cash. The latter two are not the largest by market cap but seem to be well-known and are part of the CIX capital.com index, tracking five cryptocurrencies, including these four (Ripple is the fifth). Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been riding support at the 40-week moving average line, gaining +8.98 this week. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined +7.04%, meeting resistance at the 10-week moving average line. Litecoin (LTCUSD) declined -3.04% but also has support at the 40-week moving average. Bitcoin Cash (BTHUSD) declined -6.42%. Despite the declines from Ethereum and Bitcoin Cash, their average relative strength remains higher than the CIX. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio (PCCE) moved lower, ending the week at 0.558. A contrarian indicator, when the put/call ratio is below 0.7, it signals overly bullish sentiment and could mean an overbought market. The CNN Fear & Greed Index is just to the greed side of neutral. The NAAIM money manager exposure index declined slightly to 79.65. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Week Ahead Monday There is not much economic news scheduled for Monday. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update on Monday. Tuesday Producer Price Index data is scheduled for release on Tuesday. We will also get an update on Retail sales data. Both sets of data come before the market open. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock data will be released after the market close. Earnings reports for Tuesday include Oracle (ORCL), H&R Block (HRB), and La-Z-Boy (LZB). Wednesday Build Permits and Housing Starts data will be released in the morning on Wednesday. Crude Oil Inventories get an update after the market opens. The most important events for the day will come in the afternoon. The Fed will release Meeting Minutes and a Fed Interest Rate Decision at 2:00 pm. The Fed Economic Projections will follow that. Investors will watch these updates from the Fed very closely, and the reactions could be oversized in either direction. There are no significant earnings releases for this daily update on Wednesday. Thursday Initial Jobless Claims data is expected to continue to improve on Thursday. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index will also be released before the market opens. Adobe (ADBE), Kroger (KR), and Jabil (JBL) release earnings on Thursday. The Jabil report will be before the market opens. Friday There is not much significant economic news scheduled for Friday. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bullish Side This week's bullish and bearish outlook both focus on the Fed comments for Wednesday. Will the Fed have a strong stance toward continuing monetary policy to support the economy further back to health? There are several reasons why they will continue. Jerome Powell has made it clear that they would not change economic support until employment fully recovers. Although employment data is getting better, as indicated by the nonfarm jobs report two weeks ago and the lower initial jobless claims, the labor market is still not fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels. The fears of a monetary policy change have mainly come from rising inflation. Investors have had to balance high inflation data with the level of trust they have in the Fed's statements that inflation is transitionary. There is plenty to indicate that it is transitionary. Much of the price increase pressures have been due to supply chain issues among rising consumer demand, which should ease in the next quarter. Biden's infrastructure plans are meeting resistance among Republicans and even some Democrats. The negotiations will result in a smaller plan and less pressure on commodity prices, helping to ease inflation worries. Employment and inflation will be two significant factors in the Fed's comments on Wednesday. There will be others, including the broader health of the global economy and the progress of the pandemic recovery in Europe and Asia. Altogether, one can expect the Fed to continue monetary policy without any hint of tapering just yet. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bearish Side Or the Fed might start "talking about talking about" tapering. The mere hint of discussion about when the tapering should start will send investors into a tantrum even if a year away. Even worse is if the Fed starts to signal to worry about inflation being less transitionary than previously thought. That will have investors reconsidering the net present value of future growth in their portfolios and perhaps move into instruments better protected from inflation. Whatever the Fed says on Wednesday, we can expect investors to be very sensitive and reactions to be significant. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Key Nasdaq Levels to Watch The Nasdaq closed above the 14,000 resistance area this week. The 21d EMA crossed back above the 50d MA, a good confirmation of the upward trend. The index is also staying close to the middle of a regression trend channel from the 5/12 low. On the positive side, the levels are: The high of this past week was 14,069.42. Let's make a new weekly high. The all-time high is at 14,211.57. The mid-point of the regression trend from the 5/12 low points to 14,256 by the end of the week. On the downside, there are a few key levels: 14,000 has been a key area of support/resistance. The index has only stayed above this level for a few days at a time since the beginning of 2021. The 10d MA is at 13,847.87. The low of this past week is 13,784.89. The 21d EMA is at 13,765.00, moving back above the 50d MA. The 50d MA is at 13,740.87. There is a pivot at 13,548.93. This is a "higher low" in the current uptrend. There is a support area at 13,000. 13,002.54 is a pivot from May. Below this level is a correction. 12,730.95 is the 200d MA. This could be a support point if the index falls below 13,000. 12,397.05 is a low pivot point from the early March dip. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It seems we have something significant to watch every week recently. A few weeks ago, it was inflation. Then it was employment data. This past week, investors focused on consumer sentiment and prices. This coming week, all the focus will be on the Fed on Wednesday. Wednesday's Fed comments could support the index to move back into new all-time highs, or it could be another pivot to the downside and retests of major support areas. There's no way to predict what will happen. The important thing is to know the event is coming and have a plan for your portfolio. Maybe you plan to hold through any news. Perhaps you plan to take some profits. Or set stops at a place that you are comfortable with the risk level. Either way, have a good week. Good luck, stay healthy, and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321