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Daily Market Update for 4/26Summary: Momentum from the end of last week continued into Monday as markets open the week higher and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq set new records. There are some signs that investors are rotating out of safe bets and buying up speculative positions ahead of earnings reports. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, April 26, 2021 Facts: +0.87%, Volume higher, Closing range: 89%, Body: 64% Good: Move up on higher volume and broadly shared gains Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Longer lower wick from dip at open, short upper wick after testing new high Advance/Decline: Three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.18%), DJI (-0.18%), RUT (+1.15%), VIX (+1.79%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +0.67%) and Materials (XLB +0.59%) were top. Utilities (XLU -0.57%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -1.12%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Momentum from the end of last week continued into Monday as markets open the week higher and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq set new records. There are some signs that investors are rotating out of safe bets and buying up speculative positions ahead of earnings reports. The Nasdaq had a record-setting close, ending the with a +0.87% gain and fell just shy of setting a new all-time high price. Volume was higher and advancing stocks outnumbered declining stocks, great bullish signals for the rally. The closing range of 89% comes after a small dip before close. A longer lower wick was created by a dip just after open before the bulls quickly took over. The S&P 500 also had a record-setting close, advancing +0.18%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) led the major indexes for a fourth day, gaining +1.15% as it attempts to climb back towards highs. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) declined -0.18%. The VIX volatility index rose +1.79%. Energy (XLE +0.67%) and Materials (XLB +0.59%) were the top sectors of the day. Financials (XLF +0.40%) started the day in the lead, but faded thru the day. Utilities (XLU -0.57%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -1.12%) were at the bottom of the sector list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) remained flat with a +0.01% gain. The US 30y treasury bond and US 10y and 2y note yields all advanced for the day. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices both declined. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) both advanced. Core Durable Goods orders for March indicate increased demand for commodities. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio dropped to 0.492. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index remains just on the greed side of the neutral area. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four biggest mega-caps gained today heading into earnings reports this week. Amazon (AMZN) gained +2.04%, nearing the top of a three week base. Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) had smaller gains but are also tempting breakouts from recent bases. Investors are optimistic for positive earnings reports from these giants. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), PayPal (PYPL), Amazon (AMZN) and Nvidia (NVDA) topped the mega-cap list. Tesla (TSLA) also was near the top heading into an earnings report that beat but sent the stock back down after hours. Some of that may be jitters about safety issues domestically and controversy in China, but something a negative reaction to positive earnings is something to watch closely with other mega-cap earnings this week. At the bottom of the mega-cap list were Walmart (WMT), Coca-Cola (KO), Pepsico (PEP) and Procter & Gamble (PG). These are the top four by cap in the consumer staples sector (XLP). Investors are rotating out of consumer staples and into riskier assets. It was another good day for the growth stock list with almost all the stocks tracked by the daily update having gains. At the top of the list were Ehang Holdings (EH), MongoDb (MDB), GrowGeneration (GRWG) and UP Fintech (TIGR). At the bottom of the list were Twitter (TWTR), JD.com (JD), SNAP (SNAP) and Etsy (ETSY). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The House Price Index data on Tuesday will be interesting. It has been at its highest level since 2014. Higher prices are supposed to be bullish for the USD. Consumer Confidence data will be released just after market open. The API Weekly crude oil report will be released after close. Probably more important than the economic news will be the earnings reports. On Tuesday, Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Visa (V), Eli Lily (LLY), United Parcel Service (UPS), Starbucks (SBUX), General Electric (GE), 3M (MMM), AMD (AMD), ABB (ABB), Pinterest (PINS), Enphase (ENPH), and FireEye (FEYE). Be sure to check your portfolio for earnings reports so you are not surprised. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index neared the all-time high, stopped just short of it, but still set a record close. The one-day trend line points to a +0.76% gain for Tuesday. The five-day trend line results in a +0.43% gain. The trend line from the 3/5 low, points to a -0.39% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The speculation ahead of earnings reports is a bit obvious in Monday's market movements. Rotations out of defensive plays and into growth sectors is coupled with a dip in the put/call ratio to an overly bullish level. Nonetheless, we have been waiting for a momentum signal of broad gains on higher volume. But investors should be careful since the market may be pricing in the positive earnings ahead of the actual reports. The first example is Tesla beat expectations, but its price is dropping after hours. Tesla's drop may be from other issues and not the earnings reports. But it could be that the market priced in the beat ahead of time and sold the news. If that continues throughout the week, it would be an ominous signal for big-tech and growth stocks. Keep a close eye on the earnings reports even if you don't own the stock. And definitely know when earnings reports are due for your portfolio to not be surprised. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Come, my Nasdaq - You are my butterfly, BEARISH baby!Confirmation of a potential breakout past 14000.00 would allow market bulls to join the existing uptrend. They can open long orders just above this crucial resistance while placing their stop-loss orders around the dip of the last bearish pullback (around 13700.00). The significance of the latter is also confirmed by the fact that the 20-day MA (in red) is currently threading around it. Notice also that the IXIS is currently developing a major Bearish Butterfly pattern, which signifies the likely upcoming termination of the underlying uptrend. This could happen around the semi-psychological resistance level at 14500.00, which is where bulls should consider closing their buying positions. In contrast, market bears can look for an opportunity to start selling around the same level. Naturally, the SL area just above 14500.00 outlines the risk area for bears looking to catch such a reversal. On the flip side, they face an outstanding risk/reward outlook ratio for such a trade. The major support level at 13550.00 (previous swing high) encompasses the first target for such a correction, whereas the bottom of the Butterfly (around 12800.00) underpins a deeper target.
NASDAQ:IXICShort
by Trendsharks
1
Market Week in Review - 4/19/2021 - 4/23/2021Summary: The start to the week was not much of a surprise. Major indexes pulled back from record highs set the previous week. Those highs were from overextended mega-caps and the daily gains were not shared broadly across the market. We were watching for a day with broader gains and higher volume. Notes The Market Week in Review is my weekend homework where I look over what happened in the previous week and what might come in the next week. I do occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or in the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. If you find this helpful, please let me know in the comments. I am also more than happy to add new perspectives and data points if you have ideas. The structure is the following: A recap of the daily updates that I do here on TradingView. The Meaning of Life, a view on the past week What's coming in the next week The Bullish View, The Bearish View Key index levels to watch out for Wrap-up If you have been following my daily updates, you can skip down to the “The Meaning of Life”. If not, then this first part is a great play-by-play recap for the week. Click the daily charts for more detail on sectors, indexes and market leaders each day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, April 19, 2021 Facts: -0.98%, Volume lower, Closing range: 36%, Body: 35% Good: Afternoon support after hitting 13,850 Bad: Lower high, lower low, back below 14,000 line Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Body in the middle of candle, about equal upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: Almost four declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.53%), DJI (-0.36%), RUT (-1.36%), VIX (+6.40%) Sectors: Real Estate (XLRE +0.31%) and Health (XLV +0.02%) were only gaining sectors. Technology (XLK -0.83%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.12%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower After closing last week at record highs, it's reasonable that the equity markets pull back a bit before advancing again. That pull back came abruptly as the session opened in the morning but the markets found some support heading into the afternoon. The Nasdaq declined -0.98% on lower volume for the day. The upper wick formed in the first 15 minutes of trading, The declines came mostly in the morning, forming the lower wick. The candle finished the day with a 36% closing range at the bottom of a red 35% body in the center of the candle. There were almost 4 declining stocks for every one advancing stock on a day of lower highs and lower lows. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, April 20, 2021 Facts: -0.92%, Volume lower, Closing range: 38%, Body: 47% Good: Support at 21d EMA and 13,700 area Bad: Closing range from morning sell-off Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Thick red body with a longer lower wick Advance/Decline: Almost five declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.68%), DJI (-0.75%), RUT (-1.96%), VIX (+8.00%) Sectors: Utilities (XLU +1.27%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.11%) were the top sectors. Financials (XLF -1.87%) and Energy (XLE -2.65%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower The market continued to pull back for another day as investors begin to absorb more earnings reports. Those results and the guidance not only impact to their respective stock prices but also indicate what parts of the economy are recovering faster or slower. The Nasdaq closed down -0.92% on lower volume with a closing range of 38%. That closing range came after heavy morning selling, a bounce off the 21d EMA and a few tests of the 13,700 area. The index find support there and rallied a bit into close to finish with a thick red 47% red body over a longer lower wick. There were almost five declining stocks for every advancing stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, April 21, 2021 Facts: +1.19%, Volume lower, Closing range: 100%, Body: 84% Good: Test of 21d EMA in morning then buying throughout the day, rally into close Bad: Lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Long green body with no upper wick, small lower wick Advance/Decline: Five advancing stocks for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.93%), DJI (+0.93%), RUT (+2.35%), VIX (-6.32%) Sectors: Materials (XLB +1.82%) and Financials (XLF +1.39%) were the top sectors. Communications (XLC +0.17%) and Utilities (-0.84%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher The gains were broad across segments and sectors today, pivoting the indexes to the upside after a few days of declines. The only thing that was missing is higher volume that would indicate more institutional support in the gains. We'll take what we got for now and then keep a close eye in the days to come. The Nasdaq finally had the advance/decline ratio above 1.0 after eight sessions in a row of more decliners than advancers. Along with great support from mega-caps, the index closed with a +1.19% gain and a closing range of 100%. The 84% green body is above a small lower wick formed from a dip at open. Otherwise, the bulls led the index higher through the whole day. There were over 5 advancing stocks for every 2 declining stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, April 22, 2021 Facts: -0.94%, Volume higher, Closing range: 19%, Body: 55% Good: Higher high, higher low Bad: Mid-day reversal on high volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Reversal candle, gap up with long upper wick, turning into a lower close Advance/Decline: More declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.92%), DJI (-0.94%), RUT (-0.31%), VIX (+6.91%) Sectors: Real Estate (XLRE -0.43%) and Health (XLV -0.45%) were top. Technology (XLK -1.17%) and Materials (XLB -1.69%) was bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower The day started by honoring the expectation we had of a move higher, but a mid-day reversal busted that expectation, erasing the gains and sending prices plummeting. The reason was obvious. News broke that Biden would propose a huge increase in capital gains tax. So we'll look closely at the impact and what we might expect from here. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.94% decline on higher volume. The higher volume distribution starting at the 1pm news alert. The 94% red body is below a longer upper wick that formed from the morning rally before the news. The closing range is 19% and shows some recovery from the initial selling of the news. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, April 23, 2021 Facts: +1.44%, Volume lower, Closing range: 78%, Body: 75% Good: Now lower wick, strong buying all morning Bad: Slight dip into close as the weekend arrives Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Mostly green body with a longer upper wick from the dip at close Advance/Decline: Two advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+1.09%), DJI (+0.67%), RUT (+1.76%), VIX (-7.38%) Sectors: Financial (XLF +1.87%) and Materials (XLB +1.64%) were top. Utilities (XLU -0.13%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -0.26%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher Strong economic data sent the markets higher on Friday as investors shook off the capital gains tax worries. Small caps took the lead for another session as gains were shared broadly across segments and sectors. The Nasdaq gained +1.44% on lower volume than yesterday, but higher volume than earlier in the week. The 75% body is above a very tiny lower wick. The closing range of 78% is just below a longer upper wick that formed in the last 30 minutes of the session from selling into the weekend. There were two advancing stocks for every declining stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Meaning of Life (View on the Week) The start to the week was not much of a surprise. Major indexes pulled back from record highs set the previous week. Those highs were from overextended mega-caps and the daily gains were not shared broadly across the market. We were watching for a day with broader gains and higher volume. After two days of pullbacks, that hit the small caps the hardest, the turn in the in the market came on Wednesday. The advance/decline line finally moved above 1.0 with five advancing stocks for every two declining stocks, but volume was still lower than previous days. It looked like we would get the broad gains and higher volume on Thursday as the market opened with another rally. But the rally was short lived. News of Biden raising the capital gains tax hit the street and investors sold off positions in the afternoon. But even in the selling, small caps were still outperforming and there was a sense that the sell the news event would find a bottom and the rally could resume. And it did. Friday picked back up where we were trying to go on Thursday morning. There were broad gains across the market. And although volume was lower than Thursday, it was higher than the previous days and gave us the positive signal we were looking for. This growth/value comparison we've been tracking continued to move sideways this week as growth and value plays moved together. The Nasdaq retreated -0.25% for the week, but ended with a closing range of 87% after recovering from the dip at the beginning of the week and rebounding from the capital gains tax scare mid-week. The index was able to set just a slightly higher high than the previous week, but also set a lower low. More importantly, the index closed above 14,000 for a second week in a row. Volume was lower than the previous week. The Russell 2000 (RUT) gained +0.41% for the week thanks to a strong small cap performance late in the week. The S&P 500 lost -0.13% for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) declined -0.46%. The VIX volatility index rose +6.65% over a back-and-forth week. Despite the declines across the major indexes, there were two sectors that soared. Real Estate ( XLRE ) ended the week as the top sector, advancing over 2%. Three factors helped the sector breakout and then stay on top the whole week. The economic recovery is a boon for the real estate industry as occupancy rates climb driving demand and prices higher. Interest rates remain low thanks to the Fed's continued easy money policy, keeping costs low. And in a climate of nervous investors, fearful of new lockdowns around the world, the real estate sector becomes a nice defensive play that has growth potential as well. Healthcare ( XLV ) was the second best sector of the week. The sector has lagged behind the S&P 500 since the beginning of the year. Positive earnings reports from UnitedHealth ( UNH ) and Johnson & Johnson ( JNJ ) over the past few weeks gave it the momentum needed to catch up with a 1.81% advance this week. The only other sectors that had gains for the week were Materials ( XLB ) and Industrials ( XLI ), both responding positively to great economic recovery news. At the bottom of the sector list were Energy ( XLE ) and Consumer Discretionary ( XLY ). Energy stocks continue to underperform as oil prices have been dropping in recent weeks. Consumer Discretionary was a big part of the S&P 500 setting records the previous three weeks and was due to pause or pullback this week. Earnings reports from Tesla ( TSLA ) and Amazon ( AMZN ) next week will have a big influence on the sector performance. The yield curve continues to flatten this week with the US 30y treasury bond and US 10y treasury note yields both declining. The US 2y note yield rose slightly. Both the High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Bond (LQD) prices advanced for the week. The US Dollar (DXY) continues to slide from the end of March, declining another -0.86% this week. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both advanced for the week. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined -1.46%. Timber (WOOD) declined -1.71% but is still near highs. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) both advanced for another week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Big Four Mega-caps The big four mega-caps continue to outpace the rest of the market. Alphabet (GOOGL) moved up +0.75% for the week. Microsoft (MSFT) gained +0.16% while Apple (AAPL) advanced +0.12%. Only Amazon (AMZN) declined for the week, losing -1.72%. All four are trading above their 10w and 40w moving average lines. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Four Recovery Stocks I picked four recovery stocks to track against the indexes and other indicators in this weekly report. Only Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL) could end the week with a light gain after dipping below its 10w moving average line and closing above it. Marriott (MAR) also dipped below the line but close above it, declining just -0.18% for the week. Exxon Mobil (XOM) declined -1.92%, closing the week below the 10w moving average. Delta (DAL) declined -1.80% and also remained below the line. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio (PCCE) closed the week 0.651. A contrarian indicator, when the put/call ratio is below 0.7, it signals overly bullish sentiment and could mean an overbought market. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved to the greed side but not far off neutral. The NAAIM exposure index remained about the same, moving just slightly lower to 95.6. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Week Ahead Monday will kick-off the week with Core Durable Goods orders data for March. The data is a leading indicator showing increased manufacturing data to respond to higher consumer demand. The House Price Index data on Tuesday will be interesting. It has been at its highest level since 2014. Higher prices are supposed to be bullish for the USD. Consumer Confidence data will be released just after market open. The API Weekly crude oil report will be released after close. Wednesday's news will include the Good Trade Balance and Retail Inventories before market open. Crude Oil Inventories after the market open. There is a Fed Interest Rate Decision and FOMC Press Conference after 2pm. On Thursday, new GDP data will be released which is expected to be 6.5%. Initial Jobless Claims data will hopefully continue to fall. Pending Home Sales data will be released after market open. Inflation will be front and center again on Friday. PCE Price Index data will be released in the morning. That will compliment Personal Spending data and Consumer Expectations and Sentiment that have all been driving higher demand and higher prices. The frequency of earnings reports will start to pick up next week. Investors will be watching all earnings reports closely to measure sector performance in the economic recovery. Kicking off on Monday will be reports from Tesla (TSLA), NXP Semiconductors (NXPI), Canon (CAJ), Albertsons (ACI). On Tuesday, Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Visa (V), Eli Lily (LLY), United Parcel Service (UPS), Starbucks (SBUX), General Electric (GE), 3M (MMM), AMD (AMD), ABB (ABB), and FireEye (FEYE). Wednesday includes reports from Apple (AAPL), Facebook (FB), Qualcomm (QCOM), Boeing (BA), Shopify (SHOP), ServiceNow (NOW), ADP (ADP), Spotify (SPOT), Ford (F), eBay (EBAY), and Teladoc (TDOC). On Thursday, Amazon (AMZN), Mastercard (MA), Comcast (CMCSA), Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), McDonald's (MCD), Baidu (BIDU), Atlassian (TEAM), Twitter (TWTR), Fortinet (FTNT), Royal Caribbean (RCL), and Logitech (LOGI). Friday will close the big earnings week with Alibaba (BABA), Exxon Mobil (XOM), AbbVie (ABBV), Chevron (CVX), AstraZeneca (AZN), Johnson Controls (JCI), and Komatsu (KMTUY). It would be an understatement to say this is not an exhaustive list. Check your own portfolio for earnings dates so you aren't surprised. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bullish Side Despite the scare on Thursday, the market gave us a lot to be excited about in the last three days. We saw the advance/decline line finally move above 1.0 as the small caps began to rebound and drive the Russell 2000 higher. With the mega-caps also moving up, it will provide a lot of momentum into next week, possibly getting the Nasdaq to a new all-time high. More economic news throughout the week should support the view that the economy is booming and drive further positive sentiment to the market. Treasury yields are coming down, making money cheaper again. The USD dollar weakening can be a boost to large multinationals. Positive earnings reports this week may be just the boost the market needs to head higher. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bearish Side Volume continues to move lower even as the market gains, potentially signaling a top. From the start of the year, the highest volume weeks are red declining weeks. This may be the reduction of retail investors participating in the active market, but it could also be institutions reducing positions. Any of the economic news events this week could be a negative surprise start a sell-off. Especially any hints from the Fed of monetary policy changes would be received with a big negative reaction. Positive earnings reports this week may already be priced in, and any disappointing results or guidance will certainly alarm investors. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Key Nasdaq Levels to Watch The Nasdaq closed above 14,000 two weeks in a row, but can it move toward an all-time high? That's the question for this week. On the positive side, the levels are: 14,062.74 is the high of this week. That will be the first price to beat this week. The all-time high is at 14,175.12. 14,727 is the middle line of the channel from the March 2020 bottom. The index has been below the midline for the past nine weeks. On the downside, there are a few key levels: The 10d MA is at 13,928.15. The index dipped below this line the past week, but closed above it on Friday. The 21d exponential moving average is at 13,739.15. The low of this past week is 13,698.67. Let's get a higher low for next week. The 50d moving average is at 13,504.97. The lower line of the channel from the March 2020 bottom is around 13,360 for next week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up There are smart people that say the market is extended and positive news and earning reports are already priced in. There are also smart people who believe the recovering economy and support of the Fed is going to send the market higher. I try to see both sides in the market week in review, so how to decide? Follow price. Next week, with all the earning reports and economic news, the only questions that need to be answered is what happens to the indexes and what happens to the stocks in your portfolio. Live by your investment rules and let them be your guide. Good luck, stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Nasdaq short term outlookHas been trading in a rising wedge last 4 days. I got conformation with the pullback and rejection towards the end of Friday big rally. Monday possible top could be 14105 Channel top (Green line). This week should be interesting with big tech earnings in play. Keep in mind Powell speaks Wednesday and will be addressing Interest rates and future Tax hikes. I know this is short term but I'd like to point out the RSI movement on IXIC. since January 25 RSI high there has been a noticable downtrend Starting with Feb 12th correction kick off. Coming off of March 4th lows there has been 2 failed attempts to break through that down trend on dates April 13th and 16th. I think this downtrend resistance is key to future ATH. Side note, not all tech will benefit from a rally. Most of the money will becoming in on Faang stocks. Tqqq Calls are the easiest play if your bullish. Good luck. lose your opinion not your money
TVC:IXIC
by ContraryTrader
Daily Market Update for 4/23Summary: Very strong economic data sent the markets higher on Friday as investors shook off the capital gains worries. Small caps took the lead for another session as gains were shared broadly across segments and sectors. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, April 23, 2021 Facts: +1.44%, Volume lower, Closing range: 78%, Body: 75% Good: Now lower wick, strong buying all morning Bad: Slight dip into close as the weekend arrives Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Mostly green body with a longer upper wick from the dip at close Advance/Decline: Two advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+1.09%), DJI (+0.67%), RUT (+1.76%), VIX (-7.38%) Sectors: Financial (XLF +1.87%) and Materials (XLB +1.64%) were top. Utilities (XLU -0.13%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -0.26%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Very strong economic data sent the markets higher on Friday as investors shook off the capital gains worries. Small caps took the lead for another session as gains were shared broadly across segments and sectors. The Nasdaq gained +1.44% on lower volume than yesterday, but higher volume than earlier in the week. The 75% body is above a very tiny lower wick. The closing range of 78% is just below a longer upper wick that formed in the last 30 minutes of the session from selling into the weekend. There were two advancing stocks for every declining stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) led the major indexes for a third day, bucking the trend of lower performance the last few weeks. It gained +1.76% today. The S&P 500 (SPX) closed with a +1.09% advance while the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) closed up +0.67%. The VIX volatility index retreated -7.38%. Financial (XLF +1.87%) and Materials (XLB +1.64%) were top. Utilities (XLU -0.13%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -0.26%) were the only sectors with declines. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.49%. The sharp decline came as treasury bonds sold off. The US 30y treasury bond and US 10y and 2y note yields all advanced for the day. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices both advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) both advanced. The commodities advance are after surprisingly strong economic data following a great jobs report yesterday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call rose to 0.651. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moving toward the greed side, but not at extreme greed. The NAAIM money manager exposure index remains about the same as last week at 95.6. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four biggest mega-caps gained today. Alphabet (GOOGL) advanced +2.10%, closing at a new all-time high. Apple (AAPL) gained +1.80%. Microsoft (MSFT) advanced +1.55%. Amazon (AMZN) held onto a +0.96% despite fading later in the session. ASML Holding (ASML), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Nvidia (NVDA) and Bank of America (BAC) led the mega-caps for the day, all with more than 2% gains. Intel (INTC), Netflix (NFLX), Procter & Gamble) and Pepsico (PEP) were at the bottom of the list. Almost every stock in the daily update growth list had gains for the day. UP Fintech (TIGR) led the list with a +14.18% gain. Cloudflare (NET), SNAP (SNAP) and FUTU Holdings (FUTU) round out the top four. MongoDb (MDB), Peloton (PTON) and Beyond Meat (BYND) were at the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Monday will kick-off the week with Core Durable Goods orders data for March. The data is a leading indicator showing increased manufacturing data to respond to higher consumer demand. The frequency of earnings reports will really start to pick up next week. Kicking off on Monday will be reports from Tesla (TSLA), NXP Semiconductors (NXPI), Canon (CAJ), Albertsons (ACI). Investors will be watching all earnings reports closely to measure sector performance in the economic recovery. Be sure to check your portfolio for earnings reports so you are not surprised. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index was able to get back above the 14,000 area and hold that line even with the dip at close. The one-day trend line points to a +1.40% gain for Monday. The trend line from the 3/5 low, points to a +0.35% gain. The five-day trend line points to a -0.23% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The worries about higher capital gains tax was short lived. Biden has always said he would raise taxes and so those worries were likely already priced in. Today's rally easily erased yesterday's downward reversal from the sell the news event. The economic data this morning included higher Services and Manufacturing PMI and New Home Sales data that exceeded even high expectations. Add that to the positive jobs data yesterday and it was enough to excite investors over the strong economy today. Still, investors will watch earnings reports closely next week to see what sectors are performing best in the recovery. Not only will earnings be compared to last year's pandemic numbers, but guidance for the next quarter and year will be watch closely. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 4/22Summary: The day started by honoring the expectation we had of a move higher, but a mid-day reversal busted that expectation, erasing the gains and sending prices plummeting. The reason was obvious. News broke that Biden would propose a huge increase in capital gains tax. So we'll look closely at the impact and what we might expect from here. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, April 22, 2021 Facts: -0.94%, Volume higher, Closing range: 19%, Body: 55% Good: Higher high, higher low Bad: Mid-day reversal on high volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Reversal candle, gap up with long upper wick, turning into a lower close Advance/Decline: More declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.92%), DJI (-0.94%), RUT (-0.31%), VIX (+6.91%) Sectors: Real Estate (XLRE -0.43%) and Health (XLV -0.45%) were top. Technology (XLK -1.17%) and Materials (XLB -1.69%) was bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The day started by honoring the expectation we had of a move higher, but a mid-day reversal busted that expectation, erasing the gains and sending prices plummeting. The reason was obvious. News broke that Biden would propose a huge increase in capital gains tax. So we'll look closely at the impact and what we might expect from here. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.94% decline on higher volume. The higher volume distribution starting at the 1pm news alert. The 94% red body is below a longer upper wick that formed from the morning rally before the news. The closing range is 19% and shows some recovery from the initial selling of the news. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) rallied 1.25% in the morning before downturn. It ended the day with a -0.31% loss, fairing the best among the major indexes. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.92% while the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) declined -0.94%, both giving up most of yesterday's gains. The VIX volatility index rose +6.91%. There was a sharp change in the sector performance list at the news. All sectors lost gains in the morning and ended the day with a loss. Growth sectors moved to the bottom along with Materials (XLB -1.69%) which has been outperforming the other sectors recently. Real Estate (XLRE -0.43%) and Health (XLV -0.45%) were top sectors for the day. Technology (XLK -1.17%) and Materials (XLB -1.69%) were at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) advanced +0.18%. The US 30y treasury bond and US 10y and 2y note yields all declined for the day. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices declined while Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (WOOD) declined for another day. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) both declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call rose to 0.639. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is leaning toward the greed side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The four biggest mega-caps declined for the day. Amazon (AMZN) lost -1.58%, Microsoft (MSFT) was down -1.31%, Apple (AAPL) declined -1.17% and Alphabet (GOOGL) lost -1.13%. They all still trade above the 21d EMA and bases are intact. AT&T (T) gained +4.15% after a great earnings report and didn't seem impacted by the afternoon swing (although it did close off intraday highs after morning profit taking). Abbot Labs (ABT), Salesforce.com (CRM), and Mastercard (MA) were also at the top of the mega-cap list, but all with under 1% gains. Most mega-caps declined for the day with high-growth names such as Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA) taking the worst hits. The growth stock list was not terribly impacted by the afternoon sell-off. About half of the daily update list closed the day with gains. Solar Edge (SEDG) and Enphase (ENPH) topped the list with 7.69% and 3.74% gains. Crowdstrike (CRWD) and FUTU Holdings (FUTU) also ended the day near the top of the list. At the bottom of the list were Draft Kings (DKNG), PENN Gaming (PENN), Grow Generation (GRWG) and Twitter (TWTR). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead On Friday the Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers Index data will be released. The data is an indicator for economic activity the respective sectors. New Home Sales data will also be released in the morning. Friday will close the week with earnings reports from Honeywell (HON) and American Express (AXP). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index popped above 14,000 in the morning before the afternoon downside reversal. It seemed to find support at around 13,800. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a +1.50% gain for Friday. The five-day trend line points to a -0.14% decline. If today's one-day trend continues, it would mean a -1.37% loss for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The news that Biden may raise the capital gains tax was enough to send the market into a short panic today. Although the tax would be a ways off, it's likely investors would take gains in the current year under the current tax rules rather than wait for later years. That sell-off at the end of year is what the market will look to price in now. You saw it show up in the hit to growth sectors and high growth stocks, especially stocks that have big gains over the past year. But there's a good possibility that the market just overreacted today to some disappointing news. A good amount of money that is in the market is protected from tax since it comes in from retirement plans and passive indexes. To what degree that's true is what we'll find out as Biden's proposal makes it through the hurdles in its way and the market prices in the impact. The news was enough to bust our expectation for Higher today and rethink where things might head for tomorrow. Based on the candlesticks, we have to observe the a downside reversal and expectation for lower tomorrow. But the higher high and higher low opens up the possibility for sideways. Sideways or lower. Certainly, we'd welcome another expectation breaker and move higher tomorrow. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 4/21Summary: The gains were broad across segments and sectors today, pivoting the indexes to the upside after a few days of declines. The only thing that was missing is higher volume that would indicate more institutional support in the gains. We'll take what we got for now and then keep a close eye in the days to come. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, April 21, 2021 Facts: +1.19%, Volume lower, Closing range: 100%, Body: 84% Good: Test of 21d EMA in morning then buying throughout the day, rally into close Bad: Lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Long green body with no upper wick, small lower wick Advance/Decline: Five advancing stocks for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.93%), DJI (+0.93%), RUT (+2.35%), VIX (-6.32%) Sectors: Materials (XLB +1.82%) and Financials (XLF +1.39%) were the top sectors. Communications (XLC +0.17%) and Utilities (-0.84%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The gains were broad across segments and sectors today, pivoting the indexes to the upside after a few days of declines. The only thing that was missing is higher volume that would indicate more institutional support in the gains. We'll take what we got for now and then keep a close eye in the days to come. The Nasdaq finally had the advance/decline ratio above 1.0 after eight sessions in a row of more decliners than advancers. Along with great support from mega-caps, the index closed with a +1.19% gain and a closing range of 100%. The 84% green body is above a small lower wick formed from a dip at open. Otherwise, the bulls led the index higher through the whole day. There were over 5 advancing stocks for every 2 declining stocks. In a signal of rotation back into small-caps, the Russell 2000 (RUT) outperformed the other major indexes after underperforming for several sessions. But the rotation did not suck the wind out of the other segments, allowing gains to be broadly shared. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) both had gains of +0.93%. The VIX volatility index declined -6.32% after two days of big advances. Cyclical sectors topped to the sector list for the day, but did not leave behind growth sectors. Materials (XLB +1.82%) and Financials (XLF +1.39%) were the top sectors. Utilities (-0.84%) was the only sector to decline, reversing the defensive trades of the previous two days. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.10% and may be in the early part of a base at the current level. The US 30y treasury bond and the US 10y note yields remained about even. The 2y treasury note yields rose slightly. Both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Commodities were mostly bullish for the day. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined on higher than expected crude oil supply numbers. Timber (WOOD) declines but is still near extraordinary highs. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) both advanced. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call dropped to 0.548. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is leaning toward the green side, but not near extreme. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The four biggest mega-caps certainly helped with the gains today. Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) gained +0.90% and +0.82%. Apple (AAPL) gained +0.29%. Alphabet (GOOGL) declined -0.03% but found support late in the session after a morning decline. ASML Holding (ASML) and Roche Holding (RHHBF) topped the mega-cap list with +6.25% and +4.64%. I don't usually include Roche in the daily update as its traded in OTC, but the earnings surprises of these two giants influenced European markets and likewise influenced sentiment in the US major indexes. Tesla (TSLA) and Nike (NKE) round out the top four mega-caps. There were more winners than losers in the mega-caps. Netflix (NFLX) dropped -7.40% after disappointing investors with subscriber growth. Oracle (ORCL) declined -3.26% because of a lost cloud deal with the Israel government. There wasn't much to complain about among growth stocks either. Lemonade (LMND) was the top winner with a +10.83% gain. Moderna (MRNA), GrowGeneration (GRWG), DraftKings (DKNG) also topped the list with over 5% gains. At the bottom of the list were communications stocks Facebook (FB) and SNAP (SNAP) with -0.39% and -0.32% declines. FUTU Holdings (FUTU) continued to decline, losing -2.64%, after announcing a secondary offer two days ago. Peloton is struggling with the fallout from reports and investigations of treadmill injuries and one death, declined -6.17% today. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Thursday will bring an update to Initial Jobless Claims and Existing Home sales. Earnings updates will include Intel (INTC), AT&T (T), Snap (SNAP), and DR Horton (DHI). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index found support at the 13,700 area again today, before rallying the rest of the day and closing just below 14,000. If today's trend continues, the one-day trend line points to a +0.90% gain for tomorrow. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a +0.31% gain. The five-day trend line points to a -1.53% decline for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up We've been watching the advance/decline ratio over that past week and a half, looking for a day where the advancing stocks outnumbered the declining stocks. Now that we have the signal, the attention turns to volume. Volume declined over the last three sessions, including a large decline today as the index pivoted upward. Ideally we will see everything come together in the next session. A move higher, with broadly shared gains, on higher volume. The expectation is set for Higher. If the index moves lower, that will be a signal the last few weeks rally is losing support. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Daily Market Update for 4/20Summary: The market continued to pull back for another day as investors begin to absorb more earnings reports. Those results and the guidance not only impact to their respective stock prices but also indicate what parts of the economy are recovering faster or slower. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, April 20, 2021 Facts: -0.92%, Volume lower, Closing range: 38%, Body: 47% Good: Support at 21d EMA and 13,700 area Bad: Closing range from morning sell-off Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Thick red body with a longer lower wick Advance/Decline: Almost five declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.68%), DJI (-0.75%), RUT (-1.96%), VIX (+8.00%) Sectors: Utilities (XLU +1.27%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.11%) were the top sectors. Financials (XLF -1.87%) and Energy (XLE -2.65%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The market continued to pull back for another day as investors begin to absorb more earnings reports. Those results and the guidance not only impact to their respective stock prices but also indicate what parts of the economy are recovering faster or slower. The Nasdaq closed down -0.92% on lower volume with a closing range of 38%. That closing range came after heavy morning selling, a bounce off the 21d EMA and a few tests of the 13,700 area. The index find support there and rallied a bit into close to finish with a thick red 47% red body over a longer lower wick. There were almost five declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) led the losses for the major indexes with a -1.96% decline. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.68% and the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) declined -0.75%. The VIX volatility index gained another +6.40%. Utilities (XLU +1.27%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.11%) were the top sectors. Consumer Staples (XLP +0.55%) and Health Services (XLV +0.39%) were the only other gaining sectors. Financials (XLF -1.87%) and Energy (XLE -2.65%) were bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) gained +0.13%. The US 30y treasury bond and the US 10y and 2y treasury note yields all declined for the day. The yield curve continues to flatten. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices declined while Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) was flat while Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (WOOD) declined on news that demand would retreat later in the year. Copper (COPPER1!) was flat while Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio remained at 0.679. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is still on the greed side, despite the pullbacks in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four big mega-caps declined for the day. Apple (AAPL) lost -1.28%, Amazon (AMZN) lost -1.11%, Alphabet (GOOGL) lost -0.47%, and Microsoft (MSFT) lost -0.19%. All bases are still intact and these mega-caps are trading well above their 21d EMA and 50d MA. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) topped the mega-cap list with UnitedHealth (UNH), Procter & Gamble (PG) and Walmart (WMT) filling out the top four mega-cap performers. At the bottom of the list are Nike (NKE), Abbott Labs (ABT), Bank of America (BAC) and Walt Disney (DIS). It was another tough day for growth stocks with only a handful in the daily update list advancing for the day. Enphase (ENPH) climbed 4.15% after getting analyst upgrades today. Other top growth stock gainers were Tesla (TSLA), NIO (NIO) and Facebook (FB), but the gains were not huge. FUTU (FUTU) followed up yesterday's big gain with a huge loss of -23.43% after the company announced a secondary issue of stock. UP Fintech (TIGR) also lost -14.10% for the day. SUMO Logic (SUMO) and DataDog (DDOG) were other growth stock losers for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Wednesday, additional crude oil inventory data will be released in the morning. A 20y treasury bond auction will happen in the afternoon. On Wednesday, Roche Holding (RHBY), Verizon (VZ), Chipotle (CMG) will release earnings updates. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index found support at the 13,700 area today and ended with a short rally. The index is in the lower half of the regression trend channel from the 3/5 low. The midline points to +1.39% gain, just below 14,000. The five-day trend line points to a -0.03% sideways move. The one-day trend line points to a -1.31% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up We've gone eight days on the Nasdaq where there are more declining stocks than advancing stocks. It's clear the influence is still in the mega-caps. They are extended after a couple weeks of big gains, and may take some more time to form second stage bases and move up again. More broadly, there is no indication that investor sentiment will change and end the pullback in small caps and growth stocks. Perhaps some earnings reports or economic news later this week can help (or hurt). For many of the growth stocks I follow, it doesn't feel they could go much lower. But then again, it didn't feel they could go any lower last week either. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 4/19Summary: After closing last week at record highs, it's reasonable that the equity markets pull back a bit before advancing again. That pull back came abruptly as the session opened in the morning but the markets found some support heading into the afternoon. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, April 19, 2021 Facts: -0.98%, Volume lower, Closing range: 36%, Body: 35% Good: Afternoon support after hitting 13,850 Bad: Lower high, lower low, back below 14,000 line Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Body in the middle of candle, about equal upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: Almost four declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.53%), DJI (-0.36%), RUT (-1.36%), VIX (+6.40%) Sectors: Real Estate (XLRE +0.31%) and Health (XLV +0.02%) were only gaining sectors. Technology (XLK -0.83%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.12%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview After closing last week at record highs, it's reasonable that the equity markets pull back a bit before advancing again. That pull back came abruptly as the session opened in the morning but the markets found some support heading into the afternoon. The Nasdaq declined -0.98% on lower volume for the day. The upper wick formed in the first 15 minutes of trading, The declines came mostly in the morning, forming the lower wick. The candle finished the day with a 36% closing range at the bottom of a red 35% body in the center of the candle. There were almost 4 declining stocks for every one advancing stock on a day of lower highs and lower lows. All four major indexes tracked in the daily update declined for the day with the small cap Russell 2000 (RUT) having the worst performance, losing -1.36% and dropping back to the bottom of a two week base. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.53%. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) declined -0.36%. The VIX volatility index dropped another +6.40%. Real Estate (XLRE +0.31%) and Health (XLV +0.02%) were only gaining sectors for the day. Technology (XLK -0.83%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.12%) were bottom. Communications (XLC -0.56%) joined the latter two as the three sectors that underperformed the S&P 500 index. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) continues its downward trend with a -0.58% decline today. The US 30y treasury bond and the US 10y treasury note yield advanced while the 2y note yield declined for the day. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined for the day. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) remained about flat after Friday's huge gain. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) both advanced. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio ended the day higher at 0.679. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is still on the greed side, despite the pullbacks in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Apple (AAPL) and Alphabet (GOOGL) both gained for the day while Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) declined. They all are still trading within a forming base after multiple weeks of gains. Moving average lines look good and they seem to be building support for a move higher. Netflix (NFLX) topped the mega-cap list ahead of tomorrow's earnings release. Pfizer (PFE), Coca-Cola (KO) and Apple (AAPL) round out the top four. At the bottom of the list are ASML Holding (ASML), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Tesla (TSLA) and Nvidia (NVDA). That majority of mega-caps declined for the day. The same was true for growth stocks, with most in the daily update list declining. Top gainers included FUTU Holdings (FUTU), UP Fintech (TIGR), NIO (NIO) and RH (RH). Those names look familiar as I noted they swung between the top and the bottom of the list on a daily basis last week. At the bottom of the growth list today are Chewy (CHWY), PENN National gaming (PENN), Peloton (PTON), and Ehang Holdings (EH), all with more than 6% declines. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Tuesday's economic calendar is light. The API weekly crude oil stock update will come at market close. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Proctor & Gamble (PG) will both release earnings on Tuesday. They will be joined by Netflix (NFLX), Abbot Labs (ABT), Philip Morris (PM) and Lockheed Martin (LMT). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index dropped back below the 14,000 line. We want to see it get back above that point and stay above it to work toward new all-time highs. The five-day trend line points to a +0.76% gain, above 14,000. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to +0.40% gain, just below 14,000. The one-day trend line points to a -0.88% decline, if today's selling continues. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The pullback today shouldn't be a huge surprise as the mega-caps and the major indexes are making big weekly gains and investors are likely wanting to protect some profits. There has not been broad support across the index with the advance/decline line remaining under 1.0 for a seventh session in a row. Some of this could also be from jitters in the market that some of the crazy retail volatility is still lurking. You can see this from the Dogecoin frenzy over the weekend. Stocks like AMC and GME still continue to hold high valuations compared to where analysts would price them, but other popular stocks with retail investors are losing steam. As retail investors tire of losses, they'll add to the selling. Looking forward, I would think we'd still see some sideways movement or even more pullback. To really see the index reach new highs, we'll need more juice from the mega-caps and also more broadly shared advances across segments. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Nasdaq short term outlookHeaded up to ATH 14175 in a narrow channel that it has been respecting since that last gap up. It's currently about 140Pts away from channel top and 120 pts away from ATH. I'm expecting an up day on Monday and depending how high we fly another leg up on the following day. . Candle stick is showing Hangman and normally I would be bearish but worst case scenario a pullback to Fib support 1.414 at 13965 (Blue line).which is close to channel bottom. IMO looking at a few of the fang stock charts and events around Apple's big day Tuesday, I think we'll start Monday and Tuesday up and then a healthy pullback for the big tech Earnings the following week April 26-31th
TVC:IXICLong
by ContraryTrader
Market Week in Review - 4/12/2021 - 4/16/2021Summary: There are some interesting questions to answer this week. How much of the economic recovery is already priced into the equity markets? Are investors done with the value trade and moving back to growth, or does value still have more gains ahead? Does the market really see inflation as a threat or is it just necessary and transitionary in the current cycle? Notes The Market Week in Review is my weekend homework where I look over what happened in the previous week and what might come in the next week. I do occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or in the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. If you find this helpful, please let me know in the comments. I am also more than happy to add new perspectives and data points if you have ideas. The structure is the following: A recap of the daily updates that I do here on TradingView. The Meaning of Life, a view on the past week What's coming in the next week The Bullish View, The Bearish View Key index levels to watch out for Wrap-up If you have been following my daily updates, you can skip down to the “The Meaning of Life”. If not, then this first part is a great play-by-play recap for the week. Click the daily charts for more detail on sectors, indexes and market leaders each day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, April 12, 2021 Facts: -0.36%, Volume higher, Closing range: 71%, Body: -5% Good: Higher low than previous day, high closing range Bad: Distribution day, lower high, loss on higher volume Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Inside day, thin red body in upper half of candle Advance/Decline: Almost three declining for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.02%), DJI (-0.16%), RUT (-0.16%), VIX (+1.32%) Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.64%) and Real Estate (XLRE +0.59%) were top. Technology (XLK -0.48%) and Energy (XLE -0.79%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower After several days of big gains, its ok for the markets to take a pause. Morning selling turned into buying as treasury auctions showed little trouble and yields remained under control. But the confidence wasn't enough to hold the indexes near intraday highs as investors turned their attention to inflation data becoming available Tuesday morning. The Nasdaq closed the session with a -0.36% decline on higher volume, marking a distribution day for the index. The thin red body of 5% represents indecision between the good news on treasury auctions, but the potential for bad news in inflation data. The positive is that the body is in the upper half of the candle with a high closing range of 71%, showing a slightly more bullishness in the market. There were 3 declining stocks for every advancing stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, April 13, 2021 Facts: +1.05%, Volume lower, Closing range: 86%, Body: 89% (w/gap) Good: Higher high, higher low, large green body and high closing range Bad: Small dip at end of day Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Large green body under a small upper wick, no lower wick Advance/Decline: Three declining stocks for every two advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.33%), DJI (-0.20%), RUT (-0.22%), VIX (-1.54%) Sectors: Utilities (+1.19%) and Consumer Discretionary (+1.06%) were top. Consumer Staples (-0.53%) and Finance (-0.33%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher Bigger than expected inflation didn't hold back the markets from setting new records today. The S&P 500 set another new record close while the Nasdaq inches toward key support levels. The gains were driven mostly by large mega-caps and not shared broadly across the indexes. The Nasdaq advanced +1.05% for the day and closed just below the 14,000 resistance line. The candle has no lower wick as the intraday low was set at the opening bell. The thick green 86% body led the index to a 89% closing range (including the gap) with the intraday high being set late in the afternoon. The advance was driven by larger cap stocks, as there were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, April 14, 2021 Facts: -0.99%, Volume lower, Closing range: 10%, Body: 75% Good: Higher high, pullback is on lower volume Bad: Selling almost entire day, couldn't hold above 14,000 Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Outside day, candle is mostly body with a longer upper wick from a rally at open Advance/Decline: Slightly more declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.41%), DJI (+0.16%), RUT (+0.84%), VIX (+2.04%) Sectors: Energy (+2.78%) and Materials (+0.72%) were top. Communications (-1.03%) and Technology (XLK -1.06%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower The cyclicals moved back to the top of the sector list as investors were motivated by positive import/export data and crude oil inventories. The data provided a good reason for investors to rotate back into the cyclical sectors after chasing gains in big tech over the past few weeks. The Nasdaq pulled back from recent gains, closing the day with a -0.99% decline on lower volume. The 75% red body represents a day for the bears that ended in a 10% closing range. The index set a higher high in the morning but ended the day with a lower low, providing an outside bearish candle. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, April 15, 2021 Facts: +1.31%, Volume higher, Closing range: 87%, Body: 71% Good: Higher high, higher low, close above 14,000 Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Mostly body with about equal upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: More declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+1.11%), DJI (+0.90%), RUT (+0.42%), VIX (-2.47%) Sectors: Real Estate (XLRE +1.90%) and Technology (XLK +1.72%) were top. Financial (XLF -0.09%) and Energy (XLE -0.81%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher Positive economic data gave a kick in the right direction to equity markets, allowing the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial average to close again at all-time highs. The day was owned by the bulls with just a few pullbacks, but still the gains were not felt by everyone, with more stocks declining than advancing. The Nasdaq closed the day with a +1.31% gain on higher volume. The candle, made up of mostly a green body, has a closing range of 87% about even upper and lower wicks. A higher high and higher low provides direction to the previous days outside range. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, April 16, 2021 Facts: +0.10%, Volume higher, Closing range: 88%, Body: 8% Good: Higher high after early selling turns to late buying Bad: Red body, morning sell-off, slight dip at end of session Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Long lower wick with a thin body at the top of the candle Advance/Decline: More than three declining stocks for every two advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.36%), DJI (+0.48%), RUT (+0.25%), VIX (-1.93%) Sectors: Materials (XLB +1.21%), Utilities (XLU +0.81%) were top. Communications (XLC -0.07%) and Energy (XLE -0.80%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher The indexes set more records on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial and S&P 500 closing at new all-time highs again. That gains initially came at open after positive building data drove the materials sector to the top of the sector list. It was not a straight line. The market dipped in the morning and the indexes needed to climb back to close near intraday highs. The Nasdaq closed with +0.10%, above yesterday's close but slightly below the opening price. The bears took over shortly after open, bringing the index nearly to yesterday's low. But the bulls fought back and bought it back to make an intraday high before dipping into close. The long lower wick was formed in the morning selling. The thin 8% body is at the top of the candle which has an 88% closing range. There were more than three declining stocks for every two advancing stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Meaning of Life (View on the Week) There are some interesting questions to answer this week. How much of the economic recovery is already priced into the equity markets? Are investors done with the value trade and moving back to growth, or does value still have more gains ahead? Does the market really see inflation as a threat or is it just necessary and transitionary in the current cycle? Coming into the week, investors showed caution as they waited for two things. Tuesday's consumer price index data would provide a look at how high inflation moved in March. Second would be the earnings reports for big finance, starting on Wednesday. That caution brought an indecisive candle on Monday, a fight between bulls and bears, creating a thin body where the close was just below the mornings open. The consumer price index data did come in higher than expected on Tuesday. But it seemed the equity markets had already priced in the fear of higher inflation. The numbers had a different consequence. The US Dollar weakened. The weaker US dollar was a boost for multinational mega-caps, amidst the caution in the market. It was interesting to see Utilities top the sector list, signaling caution, while still Consumer Discretionary and Technology came in second and third, helping advance the Nasdaq for the day. After more than a week of strong gains with the largest mega-caps, we were due a pullback as investors take profits and turn to other opportunities. That happened on Wednesday. The mega-caps all dipped, taking the Nasdaq down for the day. Investors turned back to the cyclicals for new opportunities, especially in the Financial sector after positive reports from big banks in the morning. Import/Export data was good, Crude Oil Inventories good, demand for Chinese exports soared. It all showed economic activity accelerating. Perfect for cyclicals. Yet, the enthusiasm for cyclicals was short lived. Thursday was back to big tech and growth stocks with the Financial and Energy sector moving back to the bottom of the sector list. And that Growth vs Value is a theme for the week that's worth more exploring. The sure winner for the week, without much to question, was the Materials sector and the commodities behind it. All data from retail sales, China exports to the huge building permits and housing starts data on Friday, are driving commodity prices higher and boosting the Materials sector. For big tech and Nasdaq, Friday was another indecisive day while the other major indexes hit all-time highs. But the curious thing for the week was how the Nasdaq put in higher highs all week while never seeing the advance/decline ratio move about 1.0. It hasn't been above 1.0 for the past six trading sessions. What was happening? You can see what was happening by looking at the top and bottom lists for mega-caps and growth stocks throughout the week. You'll see the same names show up in the top list one day and the bottom list the next. Nvidia (NVDA) is a great example, going back and forth between top and bottom mover. Chinese stocks FUTU Holdings (FUTU) and UP Fintech (TIGR) had the opposite days from Nvidia. So the advancing stocks one day exchanged places with the declining stocks the next day. That constant rotation within the index kept the advance/decline line below 1.0 while the mega-caps continued to push higher highs though the week. But by the end of the week, the rotations didn't prevent a broad set of stocks moving upward. Looking at the QQQ (weighted) index vs the QQQE (equal weight) index, the gains for the week are a bit more for the weighted index, but not that much higher. So despite rotation, that may have left some investors dazed, eventually the gains were shared broadly on a weekly basis. Another way to view the rotation within the week is the back and forth between value and growth stocks. The last two weeks, investors moved back into growth stocks, clearly seen in the ratio of gains between growth and value stocks. However this week, the rise of growth relative to value stocks paused and went back and forth as it appeared investors weren't sure which was the right play moving forward. The Nasdaq advanced +1.09% for the week. The closing range of 96% marks the third week in a row of a closing range above 95%. Volume was higher. The higher and higher low is also a three week trend. The key level we needed to pass this week was 14,000. The index topped it twice and retreated but then closed above on Thursday. One more test on Friday, confirmed the resistance level turned to a support area and the index closed the week above the line on its way to a new all-time high. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) both set new all-time highs for another week. The S&P 500 gained +1.37% for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial average gained +1.18%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) gained +0.86%, completing a three-weeks tight pattern where the index closes within a tight range each week. Small caps are still searching for their spot in the current rally. The VIX volatility index continues lower with a -2.64% decline this week. Utilities ( XLU ) is surprisingly the top sector for the week. Topping the list on Tuesday and nearing the top of the list on Friday the sector had steady gains throughout the week. The sector is usually a defensive move for investors. Perhaps investors nervousness grew as the S&P 500 has been setting new all-time highs. Less of a surprise is to see Materials ( XLB ) at the top of the weekly list. The sector is benefiting not only from investments on infrastructure being discussed in Washington, but also a strong housing sector and a surge in building permits. Energy ( XLE ) had a choppy week, taking the lead on Wednesday, but quickly fading to near the bottom of the list for the weekly. Consumer Discretionary ( XLY ) also had some good days this week, advancing on news of strong retail sales and an advance in consumer credit showing increased spending. The worst performing sector this week was Communications ( XLC ). There have been some reports of decelerating spending on Internet media and social platforms from retailers. That makes sense as demand is naturally increasing and requires less effort for omnichannel marketing to bring in consumers. For the US Treasury yields, note the spread shown in the top of the chart. The green line is the difference between the US 10y and 2y yields. It's been flattening since the panic in March where the performance of equities was so tightly attached to the longer term treasury note yields. The US 30y bond and 10y note yields both declined for the week while the 2y note yields rose, helping narrow the spread between long term and short term yields. Both the High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Bond (LQD) prices advanced for the week. s3.tradingview.com The US Dollar (DXY) retreated -0.70% erasing all the gains during March and giving a boost to multinational companies that can benefit from a weakened US dollar. All commodities, in the six tracked by this update, rose for the week, showing the high demand while economic activity continues to increase. Timber (WOOD) is all time highs. COPPER (COPPER1!) is at its highest since at least 2015. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Big Four Mega-caps The four big mega-caps completed a third week of gains, helping drive the index and their respective sectors higher. Microsoft (MSFT) had the biggest weekly gain, advancing +1.91%. Apple (AAPL) advanced +0.88%. Alphabet (GOOGL) gained +0.53%. All of these three have 10w moving average lines above the 40w moving average line. Amazon (AMZN) advanced +0.81% for the week and is trying to keep the 10w MA above the 40w MA. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Four Recovery Stocks I picked four recovery stocks to track against the indexes and other indicators in this weekly report. Exxon Mobil (XOM) was able to finish the week with a +1.41% gain despite the Energy sector not faring well. Marriott (MAR) had a small gain of +0.10% gain. However, Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL) and Delta Airlines (DAL) lost -7.75% and -5.34% for the week as new waves of the pandemic outside of the US brought in new fears of impact to the travel and leisure sectors. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio (PCCE) closed the week 0.567. A contrarian indicator, when the put/call ratio is below 0.7, it signals overly bullish sentiment and could mean an overbought market. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back and forth around neutral but ended the week on the greed side. The NAAIM exposure index rose to 96.57. Money managers continue to increase exposure in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Week Ahead Economic news on Monday will start off light with just a few short-term treasury bill auctions scheduled. They likely won't have much influence over yield concerns. Tuesday also will be light. The API weekly crude oil stock update will come at market close. Wednesday, additional crude oil inventory data will be released in the morning. A 20y treasury bond auction will happen in the afternoon. Thursday will bring an update to Initial Jobless Claims and Existing Home sales. On Friday the Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers Index data will be released. The data is an indicator for economic activity the respective sectors. New Home Sales data will also be released in the morning. Coca-Cola (KO) will kick-off the week with a premarket earnings release on Monday. After market close, IBM (IBM), United Airlines (UAL), and Steel Dynamics (STLD) could be important earnings reports to watch. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Proctor & Gamble (PG) will both release earnings on Tuesday. They will be joined by Netflix (NFLX), Abbot Labs (ABT), Philip Morris (PM) and Lockheed Martin (LMT). On Wednesday, Roche Holding (RHBY), Verizon (VZ), Chipotle (CMG) will release updates. Thursday's earnings updates will include Intel (INTC), AT&T (T), Snap (SNAP), and DR Horton (DHI). Friday will close the week with earnings reports from Honeywell (HON) and American Express (AXP). Earnings reports for the first quarter of the year are starting to pick up and this isn't meant to be an exhaustive list. Check your own portfolio for earnings dates so you aren't surprised. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bullish Side The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial continue to set records with all-time high closes. One could see that as the potential for a pullback in the markets, but it could also be time for the tech and small-caps to have their turn and bring the Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 up to all-time highs as well. Inflation numbers are out in the open and investors didn't run from equity markets. Rather the impact to the US dollar showed there is some silver lining in the higher inflation number, that multinational companies can benefit from a weaker dollar under higher inflation. It also shows investors are taking some heed from the Fed that higher inflation doesn't necessarily mean higher interest rates. Considering the mixed reaction to inflation, then one must be excited about the accelerating performance of the economy. You would be hard pressed to find a time when the economy grew at pace like it is now and the equity markets didn't advance at some level. There is much to be positive about, from the flattening yield curve, to good earnings reports over the past week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bearish Side Sure, there are positive gains in the market, but the gains are limited to a few players that are over extended or built on thin bases. Although mega-caps have carried the indexes higher, the big companies are now extended and ripe for a pullback. The action for their counterparts in mid-cap growth stocks are all over the place without strong price action to support expectation for further gains. Many popular small-caps seem to be on a downward spiral with no bottom in site. Big finance earnings reports this past week were strong, thanks to improving yields in long term treasuries that impact results for big banks. Financial institutions have also benefited from the huge rise in investment activity in the first quarter. But how will earnings reports outside of the Financial sector look in the coming weeks. More importantly, what will be the outlook set for big tech and growth stocks as they face the post-pandemic recovery? Those could be in for a shock to investors compared to the tail winds of 2020. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Key Nasdaq Levels to Watch This week we will be watching for a new all-time high for the Nasdaq. Will it come this week, or is one more pullback necessary before the milestone? On the positive side, the levels are: 14,062.50 is the high of this week. That will be the first price to beat this week. The all-time high is at 14,175.12. 14,564 is the middle line of the channel from the March 2020 bottom. The index has been below the midline for the past eight weeks. On the downside, there are a few key levels: The low of this past week is 13,783.95. Let's get a higher low for next week. The 10d MA is at 13,861.74. The index has done well to stay above this line during power trends. The 21d exponential moving average is at 13,639.66. The 21d EMA is now above the 50d MA, a good confirmation of an uptrend. The 50d moving average is at 13,507.28. The lower line of the channel from the March 2020 bottom is around 13,192 for next week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up There's really one thing I'm watching for next week from a macro perspective. Will the advance/decline ratio rise above 1.0? When will there be a broader rally vs growth limited to the mega-caps while everything else rotates? That broader rally will mean there is enough shake out in equities that now investors are starting to set solid bets in the market vs chasing swings. As for the individual investor, the most important price action is the one in your portfolio. Looking past the daily charts, how are your stocks performing on a weekly basis? The day-to-day swings don't matter as much as the weekly action that shows whether there is institutional support and growth heading into the economic recovery. Good luck, stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Daily Market Update for 4/16Summary: The indexes set more records on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial and S&P 500 closing at new all-time highs again. That gains initially came at open after positive building data drove the materials sector to the top of the sector list. It was not a straight line. The market dipped in the morning and the indexes needed to climb back to close near intraday highs. Notes The private indicator I use to draw the large candles on the Daily Market Update chart is not working today (you can see the issue looking at previous daily updates). TV identified the issue and is working on it. Until its fixed, I'll include just the daily summary data at the top of the chart and include an additional daily candlestick chart in the report below. Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, April 16, 2021 Facts: +0.10%, Volume higher, Closing range: 88%, Body: 8% Good: Higher high after early selling turns to late buying Bad: Red body, morning sell-off, slight dip at end of session Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Long lower wick with a thin body at the top of the candle Advance/Decline: More than three declining stocks for every two advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.36%), DJI (+0.48%), RUT (+0.25%), VIX (-1.93%) Sectors: Materials (XLB +1.21%), Utilities (XLU +0.81%) were top. Communications (XLC -0.07%) and Energy (XLE -0.80%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The indexes set more records on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial and S&P 500 closing at new all-time highs again. That gains initially came at open after positive building data drove the materials sector to the top of the sector list. It was not a straight line. The market dipped in the morning and the indexes needed to climb back to close near intraday highs. The Nasdaq closed with +0.10%, above yesterday's close but slightly below the opening price. The bears took over shortly after open, bringing the index nearly to yesterday's low. But the bears fought back and bought it back to make an intraday high before dipping into close. The long lower wick was formed in the morning selling. The thing 8% body is at the top of the candle which has an 88% closing range. There were more than three declining stocks for every two advancing stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) gained +0.48% a bit below the 0.64% it gained in the first 10 minutes of the session. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.36%. Both closed a new all-time highs. The Russell 2000 (RUT) continues to slowly work itself out of a base with a +0.25% advance today. The VIX volatility index dropped another -1.93%. Materials (XLB +1.21%) was the top sector, gapping up at open on the positive building data. Utilities (XLU +0.81%) was the second best sector, signaling some caution from investors perhaps on lower than expected consumer data or protecting against the volatility of a big options expiration day. Communications (XLC -0.07%) and Energy (XLE -0.80%) were bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) continues its downward trend with a -0.14% decline today. The US 30y treasury bond yield declined while the US 10y and 2y note yields advanced for the day. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined advanced for the day. Silver (SILVER) both Gold (GOLD) advanced . Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) both declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio ended the day at 0.567. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moving toward the greed side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Microsoft (MSFT) continued its breakout, setting another new all-time high with a +0.48% advance. Amazon (AMZN) also advanced, gaining +0.60% and regaining ground from a pullback earlier in the week. Apple (AAPL) and Alphabet (GOOGL) declined -0.25% and -0.11% but the base within their uptrends remain intact. Pfizer (PFE), Cisco (CSCO), Comcast (CMCSA), and Home Depot (HD) topped the mega-cap list today. Most mega-caps faired pretty well for the day. At the bottom of the list are PayPal (PYPL), Nvidia (NVDA), Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Facebook (FB). It was a different story for growth stocks. There were some winners with Moderna (MRNA), Dr Horton (DHI), FUTU Holdings (FUTU) and RH (RH) topping the daily update list. However, there were more losers than winners and some of the losses were a surprise. Pinterest (PINS) dropped nearly 10% on news that an analyst is forecasting a deceleration in omnichannel spending from retailers. DataDog (DDOG) and Fiverr (FVRR) gave up recent gains with 5% declines today. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The only thing on the economic calendar for Monday is a short-term treasury bill auction. It's not likely to impact outlook on bonds or equities. Coca-Cola (KO) will kick-off the week with a premarket earnings release. After market close, IBM (IBM), United Airlines (UAL), and Steel Dynamics (STLD) could be important earnings reports to watch. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index testing the 14,000 support area in the morning. That was a spot for the bulls to come back in and start buying, helping the index to bounce of the line and make it back to a higher high before close. The five-day trend and one-day trend lines point to a +0.36% gain, moving the index slowly but surely toward a new all-time high. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a -0.89% decline for Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It's been six trading days in a row that the advance/decline ratio is below 1.0 even as the index makes higher highs. Looking at the QQQ (weighted) index vs the QQQE (equal weight) index, the gains for the week are a bit more for the weighted index, but not that much higher. A closer look could tell, but likely what happened is the mega-caps kept moving up as lower cap stocks rotated throughout the week, keeping the daily A/D ratio low each day despite a broader gain on a weekly basis. What that means for the trend needs some more thought. Perhaps in the weekly update something will pop and provide some insight of where we can expect things to go next week. On the daily look, it seems the index has support and will continue to move up as economic activity continues picking up. For growth investors, it sure would be nice to have the gains be more broadly (and consistently) shared across the index. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 4/15Summary: Positive economic data gave a kick in the right direction to equity markets, allowing the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial average to close again at all-time highs. The day was owned by the bulls with just a few pullbacks, but still the gains were not felt by everyone, with more stocks declining than advancing. Notes The private indicator I use to draw the large candles on the Daily Market Update chart is not working today (you can also see the issue looking at previous daily updates). Until its fixed, I'll include just the daily summary data at the top of the chart and include an additional daily candlestick chart in the report below. Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, April 15, 2021 Facts: +1.31%, Volume higher, Closing range: 87%, Body: 71% Good: Higher high, higher low, close above 14,000 Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Mostly body with about equal upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: More declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+1.11%), DJI (+0.90%), RUT (+0.42%), VIX (-2.47%) Sectors: Real Estate (XLRE +1.90%) and Technology (XLK +1.72%) were top. Financial (XLF -0.09%) and Energy (XLE -0.81%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Positive economic data gave a kick in the right direction to equity markets, allowing the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial average to close again at all-time highs. The day was owned by the bulls with just a few pullbacks, but still the gains were not felt by everyone, with more stocks declining than advancing. The Nasdaq closed the day with a +1.31% gain on higher volume. The candle, made up of mostly a green body, has a closing range of 87% about even upper and lower wicks. A higher high and higher low provides direction to the previous days outside range. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained 1.31% while the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) gained +1.11%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) also had gains for the day, advancing 0.42%. The VIX volatility index declined -2.47%. Real Estate (XLRE +1.90%) and Technology (XLK +1.72%) were top. Financial (XLF -0.09%) and Energy (XLE -0.81%) were the only losing sectors for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) rose +0.04%. The US 30y treasury bond yield, and US 10y and 2y note yields all declined for the day. Prices on both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) advanced for the day. The High Yield bond prices made a move upward after basing for a few weeks. Silver (SILVER) both Gold (GOLD) advanced . Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined slightly. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) both advanced. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio ended the day at 0.571. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in the neutral area, moving just a bit to the greed side. The NAAIM money manager exposure index rose to 96.57. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The four big mega-caps all gained for the day after pulling back yesterday. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) closed at new all-time highs. Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) are continuing breakouts but have a ways to go to new all-time highs. Nvidia (NVDA), UnitedHealth (UNH), PayPal (PYPL) and Adobe (ADBE) topped the mega-cap list with gains of +2.5% and higher. At the bottom of the list were Bank of America (BAC), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Walt Disney (DIS) and Exxon Mobil (XOM). Growth stocks were mixed with Okta (OKTA), CloudFlare (NET), ROKU (ROKU) and MongoDB (MDB) topping the list with over 3% gains. At the bottom of the list are Digital Turbine (APPS), UP Fintech (TIGER), Enphase (ENPH) and Solar Edge (SEDG). DELL Technologies (DELL) rose +6.71% on news that they will spin-off VMWare (VMW). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Building Permits and Housing Starts data will be released on Friday morning. We will also get an update on Consumer Expectations and Consumer Sentiment. Friday's earnings reports include Honeywell (HON) and Morgan Stanley (MS). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index was able to rise above the 14,000 line, staying above the line even after a couple afternoon tests of the line. The five-day trend and one-day trend lines point to a +0.24% gain. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a -1.13% decline for Friday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Positive economic news in the morning was enough to lift the indexes, but not enough to see gains shared broadly across the market. The gain on higher volume is a positive, but it would be good to see the Advance/Decline number be above 1.0. As the index inches toward a new all-time high, we can expect a bit more rotation as investors take profits and chase gains in other stocks. Trying to find those opportunities, rotating your own investments, can be tricky. So as always, its best to stick to the rules that work for you and your trading style, sticking with the stocks that are working for you. That message is for me too. I've been burned by breaking rules too many times already in 2021. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 4/14Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, April 14, 2021 Facts: -0.99%, Volume lower, Closing range: 10%, Body: 75% Good: Higher high, pullback is on lower volume Bad: Selling almost entire day, couldn't hold above 14,000 Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Outside day, candle is mostly body with a longer upper wick from a rally at open Advance/Decline: Slightly more declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.41%), DJI (+0.16%), RUT (+0.84%), VIX (+2.04%) Sectors: Energy (+2.78%) and Materials (+0.72%) were top. Communications (-1.03%) and Technology (XLK -1.06%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The cyclicals moved back to the top of the sector list as investors were motivated by positive import/export data and crude oil inventories. The data provided a good reason for investors to rotate back into the cyclical sectors after chasing gains in big tech over the past few weeks. The Nasdaq pulled back from recent gains, closing the day with a -0.99% decline on lower volume. The 75% red body represents a day for the bears that ended in a 10% closing range. The index set a higher high in the morning but ended the day with a lower low, providing an outside bearish candle. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.41% for the day after setting a new all-time high. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) also set a new all-time high and closed the day with a +0.16% gain, but the close was well below the intraday high. The Russell 2000 (RUT) preformed the best for the day with a +0.84% gain, but also closed below intraday highs. The VIX volatility index gained +2.04%. Cyclical stocks were at the top o fthe sector list. Energy (+2.78%) and Materials (+0.72%) were the best performing. Energy was driven to the top by higher than expected demand for crude oil. Financials (+0.60%) also performed well, helped by earnings beats by big finance companies announced before market open. The big growth sectors of Communications (-1.03%) and Technology (XLK -1.06%) that drove recent gains, were at the bottom of today's sector list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.21%. The US 30y treasury bond yield, and US 10y and 2y note yields all gained for the day. Prices on both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) declined for the day. Silver (SILVER) advanced while Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) had a huge advance after data showed a surprisingly level of demand. Timber (WOOD) advanced slightly. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) both advanced. The outlook for economic activity, showing by the positive import/export data, is driving these prices higher along with the cyclical sectors. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio ended the day at 0.566. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in the neutral area, moving just a bit to the fear side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four big mega-caps declined for the day. I've been mentioning how extended they've gotten over the past two weeks, so a pullback is not a surprise, nor is it bad thing. Apple (AAPL) declined -1.79% but finally had its 21d EMA cross above the 50d MA, further confirming an uptrend for the stock. Microsoft (MSFT) declined -1.12%. Amazon (AMZN) declined -1.97%. Alphabet (GOOGL) declined -0.56%. Alphabet was already developing a based and may be the first to make the next breakout higher. Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) topped the mega-cap list, driving the Energy sector performance for the day. PetroChina (PTR) and Bank of America (BAC) were also near the top. At the bottom of the list were Tesla (TSLA), PayPal (PYPL), Nvidia (NVDA) and Neftlix (NFLX). The majority of the growth stock list had declines for the day. The biggest gainers in our list were UP Fintech (TIGR), Moderna (MRNA), FUTU Holdings (FUTU) and Fastly (FSLY). GrowGeneration (GRWG), Palantir (PLTR), Square (SQ) and Digital Turbine (APPS) were the biggest losers with more than 5% declines. Investor's attention was on the Coinbase (COIN) debut today with a 40% swing in prices from lows to highs and a close that was 23% below the intraday high. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Thursday has several economic data releases. Initial Jobless Claims data before the market opens will hopefully recover a bit from last week's negative surprise. Retail Sales data for March should show an improvement over the February numbers that were brought down by weather events. The Manufacturing Index data and Industrial Production data will also be leading indicators on the recovery of economic activity. The Financial sector earnings reports will include Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Charles Schwab (SCHW) and BlackRock (BLK). Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), UnitedHealth (UNH), Delta Airlines (DAL) will also be closely watched earnings reports for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index popped above the 14,000 line briefly today before selling off the rest of the day. That type of round-number resistance is not unexpected as investors tend to place conditional rules at round numbers. The five-day trend line points to a +1.30% gain for Thursday, back above 14,000. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a -0.33% as the index regresses back to the center line. The one-day trend line points to a -1.25% loss tomorrow which would leave the index around the 13,700 support area. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up In the previous few updates, we recognized that the big tech and mega-cap names that were driving gains were also getting quite extended. As rotations go, investors took profits and moved them into the next opportunity for some gains which is the cyclicals and recovery stocks. There is still some room for the mega-caps to pause and let moving average lines catch up with the recent gains. The expectation is for sideways or lower for tomorrow, but gains across a much broader set of stocks in the Nasdaq would be very welcome and healthy for the current bull market. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Daily Market Update for 4/13Trend lines drawn from the 3/5 low (25d), 4/5 (5d) and today 4/9 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, April 13, 2021 Facts: +1.05%, Volume lower, Closing range: 86%, Body: 89% (w/gap) Good: Higher high, higher low, large green body and high closing range Bad: Small dip at end of day Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Large green body under a small upper wick, no lower wick Advance/Decline: Three declining stocks for every two advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.33%), DJI (-0.20%), RUT (-0.22%), VIX (-1.54%) Sectors: Utilities (+1.19%) and Consumer Discretionary (+1.06%) were top. Consumer Staples (-0.53%) and Finance (-0.33%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Bigger than expected inflation didn't hold back the markets from setting new records today. The S&P 500 set another new record close while the Nasdaq inches toward key support levels. The gains were driven mostly by large mega-caps and not shared broadly across the indexes. The Nasdaq advanced +1.05% for the day and closed just below the 14,000 resistance line. The candle has no lower wick as the intraday low was set at the opening bell. The thick green 86% body led the index to a 89% closing range (including the gap) with the intraday high being set late in the afternoon. The advance was driven by larger cap stocks, as there were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.33%, closing just below a new all-time high set intraday. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) declined -0.20%, weighed down by cyclical sectors. The Russell 2000 (RUT) continues to underperform the other indexes with a -0.22% decline today. The VIX volatility index declined -1.54%. Utilities (XLU +1.19%) was the top sector, signaling caution among investors despite the gains in the Nasdaq and S&P 500. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.06%) and Technology (XLK +0.94%) were the second and third best sectors. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.53%) and Finance (XLF -0.33%) were bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.28%. The US 30y treasury bond yield declined after a strong auction of the bond today. US 10y and 2y note yields also declined for the day. Prices on both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) advanced for the day. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) remained flat near its highs. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) both advanced. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio ended the day at 0.521. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in the neutral area. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four big mega-caps gained for the day. Apple (AAPL) had a +2.43% and nearly got the 21d EMA line above the 50d MA. Microsoft (MSFT) continues setting new all-time highs with a +1.01% advance. Amazon (AMZN) held onto a +0.61% gain after advancing more than 1.5% intraday. Alphabet (GOOGL) closed the day with a +0.56% advance. Tesla (TSLA) was the big mega-cap winner of the day with a big +8.60% gain. Nvidia (NVDA) and PayPal (PYPL) join Apple to fill out the top four. At the bottom of the list are consumer staples Procter & Gamble (PG) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) along with big finance JP Morgan (JPM) and Bank of America (BAC). Nike was the worst performing mega-cap with over a 2% decline. The growth stock list had a decent day with CloudFlare (NET) topping the list, closing the day with a 11.30% gain. Palantir (PLTR), SUMO Logic (SUMO) and Moderna (MRNA) had gains of over 7%. FUTU Holdings (FUTU) and UP Fintech (TIGR) were at the bottom of the list with over 2% declines. Zoom Video (ZM) also had a big gain for the day perhaps on fears of the vaccine concerns (now including Johnson & Johnson) slowing down the return to work. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Economic news for Wednesday includes Export/Import Price index data before markets open. Crude Oil Inventory data will be released after the market opens. JP Morgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), Goldman Sachs (GS) will get earnings season going for big finance with reports on Wednesday. In addition, retail stocks Bed, Bath and Beyond (BBBY) and Lovesac (LOVE) will release earnings. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index is just under the 14,000 support/resistance area. A breakthrough of that line will be a confidence booster on the way to new all-time highs for the Nasdaq. With big tech stocks extended above bases, we may need one more pull back before this breakthrough. The one-day trend line points to a +0.39% gain for Wednesday. The five-day trend line points to a sideways move. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a -1.73% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It may seem that inflation data was ignored in the equities markets, with the Nasdaq having a gain and the S&P 500 hitting a record high. However, the gains in the market were driven by large mega-caps and not broadly shared across the indexes. After the inflation data was released the US dollar weakened further. The weakening of the US dollar will positively impact valuations of large multinational companies. Exports become cheaper, boosting revenues in foreign subsidiaries. When those revenues are repatriated for reporting, they are also worth more translated back into the USD. On the other hand, domestic companies are more likely to be impacted by inflation and the weakening dollar as imports become more expensive. Not all the expense can be passed onto the consumer, so margins will be reduced while the companies balance higher prices with the impact to demand. The high inflation is expected to be transitionary and should come back down later in the year after lagging supply catches up with the accelerated demand caused by consumers getting back out shopping, spending savings, stimulus checks and credit. The high demand is seen in the huge surprise export data from China. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 4/12Trend lines drawn from the 3/5 low (25d), 4/5 (5d) and today 4/9 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, April 12, 2021 Facts: -0.36%, Volume higher, Closing range: 71%, Body: -5% Good: Higher low than previous day, high closing range Bad: Distribution day, lower high, loss on higher volume Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Inside day, thin red body in upper half of candle Advance/Decline: Almost three declining for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.02%), DJI (-0.16%), RUT (-0.16%), VIX (+1.32%) Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.64%) and Real Estate (XLRE +0.59%) were top. Technology (XLK -0.48%) and Energy (XLE -0.79%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview After several days of big gains, its ok for the markets to take a pause. Morning selling turned into buying as treasury auctions showed little trouble and yields remained under control. But the confidence wasn't enough to hold the indexes near intraday highs as investors turned their attention to inflation data becoming available Tuesday morning. The Nasdaq closed the session with a -0.36% decline on higher volume, marking a distribution day for the index. The thin red body of 5% represents indecision between the good news on treasury auctions, but the potential for bad news in inflation data. The positive is that the body is in the upper half of the candle with a high closing range of 71%, showing a slightly more bullishness in the market. There were 3 declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.02%. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) declined -0.16%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) continues to underperform the other indexes with a -0.43% decline today. The VIX volatility index advanced +1.32%. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.64%) and Real Estate (XLRE +0.59%) were top performing sectors for the day. Technology (XLK -0.48%) and Energy (XLE -0.79%) were bottom. Energy opened the day at the top of the sector list, but quickly moved to the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.11%. The US 30y treasury bond yield remained flat while the and 10y treasury note yield advanced. The shorter term 2y note yield advanced, helping bring down the spread between short term and long term. Prices on both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) declined for the day. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) declined slightly. Copper (COPPER1!) declined while and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio ended the day at 0.596. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back to the neutral area. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Of the big four mega-caps, Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) were able to hold onto gains for the day despite closing below intraday highs. Apple (AAPL) and Alphabet (GOOGL) both declined. All four are trading above key moving average lines. Apple is getting close to getting the 21d EMA to cross above the 50d MA. The accelerated gains for the big four this past week results in their prices getting extended and some pullback or pause may be in order. That may mean another day or two of pause in the indexes as well. Alibaba (BABA) topped the mega-cap list despite being fined a record amount by the Chinese government over the weekend. The company stated the fine will have little impact to the company and investors must be relieved that the outcome wasn't worse. Nvidia (NVDA), Tesla (TSLA) and Pfizer (PFE) fill out the remaining top four mega-caps for the day. In addition to Apple and Alphabet, the big mega-cap losers for the day included Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and Intel (INTC). The mega-caps topped the growth stock list as well. Just below them in the list were Snowflake (SNOW), MongoDb (MDB), Okta (OKTA) and DataDog (DDOG). At the bottom of the growth list were FUTU Holdings (FUTU), DraftKings (DKNG), UP Fintech (TIGR) and Ehang Holdings (EH). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead All eyes will be on the Consumer Price Index data for March being released before market open on Tuesday. The data compliments the produce price index data released this past week. The produce price index data is leading indicator to consumer price index data, both providing an outlook on inflation. Investors are fearful of inflation bringing an end to lower interest rates. Earnings reports will start to pick up this week, but there are no notable earnings for the daily update on Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index is inching toward the 14,000 support/resistance area. A breakthrough of that line will be a confidence booster on the way to new all-time highs for the Nasdaq. The five-day trend line points to a +0.37% gain for Tuesday. The one-day trend line points to a +0.06% gain. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a -1.09% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was an indecisive day as investors await inflation data and key earnings reports from big finance this week. For inflation, it seems investors are fearing the worst. That could be a good thing if the data is not quite as frightful as feared. Last week, the Nasdaq climbed +3.12% while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial average set new all-time highs. So it should not come as a huge surprise that the market takes a breather, especially as more economic data is on its way. In fact, we may see a little more pullback or sideways action before the Nasdaq marches toward new all-time highs for itself. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321