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Daily Market Update for 1/14Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (52d), 1/8 (5d) and today 1/14 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or and corrected inline in my blog. I'm working to condense this daily update over the next few weeks. I need to reduce it for both brevity and preparation time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, January 14, 2021 Facts: -0.12%, Volume lower, Closing range: 12%, Body: 51% Good: New all-time high, higher low Bad: Closing range, sell-off to close after morning all-time high Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Thick red body in lower half of the candle, longer upper wick Advance/Decline: 2.50, five advancing stocks for every two declining stocks. Indexes: SPX (-0.38%), DJI (-0.22%), RUT (+2.05%), VIX (+4.68%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +2.96%) and Real Estate (XLRE +0.62%) were top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.64%) and Technology (XLK -0.88%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Investors shook off bad employment news in the morning to drive indexes to all-time highs before an afternoon session of selling. There were plenty of gains across a breadth of stocks, but the losses in the mega-caps weighed down the major indexes. The exception was the small-cap Russell 2000 which gained +2.05% in a solidly upwards session. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.12% loss after setting a new all-time high. The closing range of 12% with a large 51% red body is sign of weakness, but volume was lower so would not count as a distribution day. The losses were focused in the larger caps which is why the overall index is down even though there were far more advancing stocks than declining stocks. As we did yesterday, you can also see the imbalance by looking at the QQQ which is down -0.53% while the equal weight QQQE is up +0.12%. The S&P 500 (SPX) lost -0.38% while the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) lost -0.22%. The VIX Volatility index rose +4.68%. Energy (XLE +2.96%) was the top sector after OPEC released their monthly report with a mix of messages around oil demand and shale output. Real Estate (XLRE +0.62%) was the second best sector. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.64%) and Technology (XLK -0.88%) were the worst performing sectors. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) dropped for the day. US Treasury 30y (US30Y), 10y (US10Y) and 2y (US02Y) bond yields all rose for the day as investors expect more stimulus from President-elect Biden. Corporate Bonds (HYG) prices remained about even. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both gained today and seem to have found an area of support. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) futures advanced. Timber (WOOD) and Copper (COPPER1!) gained while and Aluminum (ALI1!) all declined for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio took a big dip to 0.474, an extreme level of optimism for investors. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is on the greed side, but still within reasonable range. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four of the biggest mega-caps lost for the day. They have been going back and forth between gains and losses the past several days. Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) area all trading at or below their 50d MA and 21d EMA. Apple (AAPL) is trading just below the 21d EMA. The question remains on whether the mega-caps will join the market rally on new stimulus, or will they continue to weigh down the major indexes. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) gained 6.06% on strong earnings and the increasing demand coming from the automobile industry. ASML Holding (ASML), Intel (INTC) and Exxon Mobil (XON) were other big mega-cap gainers for the day. Mastercard (M) and Visa (V) were at the bottom of the list losing -5.60% and -3.58% respectively. Beyond Meat (BYND) was a top growth stock for the day, gaining 13.66%. Fiverr (FVRR), FUTU (FUTU) and SUMO Logic (SUMO) were other big gainers for the day. Twitter (TWTR), SNAP (SNAP) and PINS (PINS) joined other communications sector stocks with losses. Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) joined the short-squeeze mania with a +18.77% gain while Gamespot (GME) continued a second day of short-squeeze gains with a 27.10% gain. That's a 100% gain in two days for the brick-and-mortar game store. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Producer Price Index data and Retail Sales data will be release before market open on Wednesday. Industrial Production numbers will add to data highlighting current economic activity. Consumer Sentiment numbers for January will be release just after the market opens. JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), Wells Fargo (WFC) and PNC Financial Services (PNC) will report earnings before market opens on Friday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The long trend line from the 10/30 bottom point to a +1.23% gain. The five day trend line points to a more modest gain of +0.28%. The one-day trend line points to a -0.36% loss. If there is further downside, 13,000 seems to be holding up well for the index. The 21d EMA is nearly 2% below the index which should be an area of support if there's a further downside move. The index also held the 12,550 area recently. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The last few days makes it seem like investors don't know what they want. Tuesday we saw rotation out of mega-caps. Yesterday, we saw rotation into mega-caps. And today we see rotation out again. Among the rotations, Energy and Financials continue to lead the sector list for the week while Communications has been at the bottom. Stay healthy and take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Top 4 Tech ETFsThe Tech sector has led the bull market over the last 10 years. And more recently, against the backdrop of the pandemic, it has outperformed every other sector in the broad index. Though, from a pure valuation standpoint, with the sector trading at XX times it’s 10 yr avg. PE, it might seem expensive to hold tech stocks but if you are chasing growth and can stomach the high-valuations, Tech is where you’d want to invest your money. Personally for me, FOMO is real. I feel we are at an unprecedented point in human history and I wouldn’t want to not be a part of it. Technology has completely transformed how we live our lives (even more so in the era of pandemic) and the pace of transformations has only picked up (over XX new technologies being launched in 2019 as opposed to XX in 2009). I'll make the case for investing in Tech ETFs in a future blog post. For now, here's a list of 5 Tech ETFs I'm monitoring:
NASDAQ:IXIC
by Blindfolded_Oz
Daily Market Update for 1/13Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (51d), 1/7 (5d) and today 1/13 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or and corrected inline in my blog. I'm working to condense this daily update over the next few weeks. I need to reduce it for both brevity and preparation time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, January 13, 2021 Facts: +0.43%, Volume lower, Closing range: 65%, Body: 34% Good: Never revisited morning low, close in upper half of candle Bad: Nothing, just not exciting Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Medium to small body with longer upper wick than lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.85, more declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.04%), DJI (+0.19%), RUT (+1.77%), VIX (-3.11%) Sectors: Utilities (XLU +1.95%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.37%) were top. Industrials (XLI -0.86%) and Materials (XLB -1.02%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview It was not a very exciting session for the Nasdaq today, but there were certainly pockets of excitement in parts of the market. The brief climb in the morning for Nasdaq turned to a sideways movement for the rest of the day. The good news is that the index never went back down towards the morning low. However, the gains for mega-caps and some growth stocks were not broadly shared across the market, keeping the index from closing closer to the intraday highs. The index closed with a +0.43% gain on lower volume. The closing range was 65% with a green body covering 34% of the candle. More stocks declined than advanced on the Nasdaq. Another way to see the influence of the mega caps today is to look at the cap weighted QQQ (+0.68%) vs the equal weight QQQE (-0.01%). The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.23% while the Dow Jones Industrial lost (DJI) -0.10%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) lost -0.75% as money rotated into larger cap stocks today. Utilities (XLU +1.95%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.37%) were the top sectors. Often these sectors are at the top when investors get a bit nervous, but don't want to exit the equities market. The worst performing sectors were Utilities (XLU +1.95%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.37%). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) rose for the day. Likewise, US Treasury 30y (US30Y), 10y (US10Y) bond yields continued to pull back from recent gains. Corporate Bonds (HYG) prices gained for a second day. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both dropped today, but have seemed to hit a support area after the declines last week. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) pulled back just a bit. Timber (WOOD), Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) all declined for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose considerably to 0.738, a move toward bearish sentiment. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four of the biggest mega-caps gained for the day. Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) area all trading at or below their 50d MA. Apple (AAPL) is trading above both the key moving averages that I track which are 21d EMA and 50d MA. In recent memory, having the mega-caps participate in a sustained rally was critical. Bulls will be looking for these four to continue gains. Intel (INTC) topped the mega-cap high performers after announcing a new CEO. Alibaba (BABA), PayPal (PYPL) and Netflix (NFLX) round out the top four performing mega-caps for the day. The majority of mega-caps gained for the day. Many mid-cap Growth stocks did well. Peloton (PTON) gained +7.29% on analyst upgrades. Chewy (CHWY) gained +7.98%. Chewy co-founder Ryan Cohen was among three activist investors added to Gamestop (GME) which gained 57.39% in a massive short-squeeze fueled by the news. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Before market opens on Thursday, Export/Import price index data for December will be released. Initial Jobless Claims will also be announced with the expectation that it's slightly lower than previous weeks. In the early afternoon, Jerome Powell will speak. His comments can impact Treasury Bonds and the value of the US Dollar. In turn, those impacts will be translated into equity market moves. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Delta Air Lines (DAL), Blackrock (BLK) will announce earnings before market opens. All three will be initial looks into performance of influential stocks in their respective industry groups. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The long trend line from the 10/30 bottom point to a +0.89% gain. The five day trend line points to a +0.09% gain, while the one-day trend is in-between the other two pointing to a +0.60% gain. On the downside, 13,000 seems to be holding up well for the index. The 21d EMA is nearly 2.5% below the index which should be an area of support if there's a further downside move. The index also held the 12,550 area recently. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up A bit of rotation and a bit of nervousness was mixed into today's session. The movement back into mega-caps and mid-cap growth stocks was apparent. But nervousness showed itself with Utilities and Real Estate topping the sector list. Corporate bonds were bought on confidence while Treasury bonds were bought on caution. The Put/Call ratio rose above 0.700 for the first time since early December. Some caution can be constructive for building a base of support in the market. It does not signal a need to be overly defensive, but certainly offers a chance to double check your plan for multiple possibilities as we head into the last two days of the trading week. Expect some more caution heading into the three-day weekend before inauguration day. Stay healthy and take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 1/12Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (50d), 1/6 (5d) and today 1/12 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or and corrected inline in my blog. I'm working to condense this daily update over the next few weeks. I need to reduce it for both brevity and preparation time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, January 12, 2021 Facts: +0.28%, Volume higher, Closing range: 77%, Body: 7% Good: Close in upper side of range, dipped just briefly below 13,000 Bad: Thin body, second indecisive day, LH/LL Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: An indecisive candle with close just above open, long lower shadow Advance/Decline: 2.23, more than two advancing for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+0.04%), DJI (+0.19%), RUT (+1.77%), VIX (-3.11%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +3.49%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.53%) were top. Communications (XLC -1.61%) and Health Services (XLV -1.09%) Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview If you are invested in growth stocks and small caps you are probably delighted, but it may be a bit confusing to look at the indexes. The growth and small cap segments did exceptionally well, but the major indexes show an indecisive day. The Nasdaq dipped mid-day but finished just above its open. The index closed up +0.28% on higher volume. The closing range of 77% is a positive, but the 7% body displays the indecisiveness. However, the advance/decline number of 2.23 shows a much more bullish picture, raising questions whether the broader market can continue to advance without the bigger players advancing. Another way to see the power of the small-caps is the Russell 2000 (RUT) index that soared above the other indexes with a +1.77% gain and a fat green candle with no lower wick and a tiny upper wick. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) had smaller gains than the Nasdaq, all show indecisive candles. Energy (XLE +3.49%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.53%) were the top sectors of the day. Communications (XLC -1.61%) and Health Services (XLV -1.09%) were at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined for the day after several days of gains. Likewise, US Treasury 30y (US30Y), 10y (US10Y) bond yields pulled back from recent gains. Corporate Bonds (HYG) prices gained slightly for the day. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both gained today, after their declines since the start of the new year. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced for another day. Timber (WOOD), Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) all advanced for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined to 0.542 as investor optimism remains very bullish. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Of the four biggest mega-caps, only Amazon (AMZN) advanced for the day, but still set a lower high and a lower low. Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL) all declined. Only Apple remains above the 50d MA while the others are below the key 21d EMA and 50d MA. The big question for the big mega-caps is can the broader market rally without them. Tesla (TSLA) regained some of the previous day's losses. Intel (INTC), Exxon Mobile (XOM) and Home Depot (HD) round out the top four performing mega-caps. But overall, six of the largest 10 mega-caps delivered losses for the day. Very different than the broader market. Growth stocks were very strong for the day. Top stocks included FUTU Holdings (FUTU +15.27%), Etsy (ETSY +12.08%), Fiverr (FVRR +9.33%) and SUMO Logic (SUMO +9.31%). Twitter (TWTR -2.24%) and Facebook (FB -2.24%) continue to suffer from the past week's events. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Consumer price index data will be released tomorrow, giving a view on inflation. After today's remarks from Esther George on the possibility of surprise inflation, investors will be watching these numbers closely. Crude Oil inventories will also be updated tomorrow after market open. No notable earnings reports for this update are scheduled for Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The five-day trend and long trend line from the 10/30 bottom point to a +1.06% gain. The one-day trend points to a -0.17% loss. The 21d EMA is about 2% below the index which should be an area of support if there's further downside. The index also held the 12,550 area recently. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Today the small-caps and growth stocks shined. The major indexes didn't show it as large-cap and mega-caps held back the Nasdaq and S&P 500. The question is whether the Russell 2000 and small-caps can continue to rally without the big players advancing too. Stay healthy and take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 1/11Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (49d), 1/5 (5d) and today 1/11 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or and corrected inline in my blog. I'm working to condense this daily update over the next few weeks. I need to reduce it for both brevity and preparation time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, January 11, 2021 Facts: -1.25%, Volume lower, Closing range: 27%, Body: 9% Good: Lower volume, stayed above 13k Bad: Morning gains turn to a new intraday low before close Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Bearish inside day, thing body at bottom of candle Advance/Decline: 0.83, more declining than advancing Indexes: SPX (-0.66%), DJI (-0.29%), RUT (-0.03%), VIX (+11.69%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +1.57%) and Health Services (XLV +0.47%) were top. Communications (XLC -1.78%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.87%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview It was tough to have any expectation coming into today's trading session. Nervousness about what will happen in DC on top of continuing pandemic pressures over the weekend resulted in a low start to the day. Confidence grew as buyers came in but ultimately the bears ruled the day, bringing the index back down to a new intraday low before close. The index closed with a -1.25% loss on lower volume. The bearish day resulted in a 27% closing range where the close is just under the open. The 9% body and long upper wick show the morning buying turning to afternoon selling. More stocks declined than advanced. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) had similar patterns, but closed the day with smaller losses. The Russell 2000 (RUT) also had a loss but with a more bullish look and the smallest loss of the four indexes. The VIX volatility Index rose +11.69%. Energy (XLE +1.57%) and Health Services (XLV +0.47%) were the top sectors for the day. Crude Oil prices continuing to rise helped Energy take the top spot after a morning dip. Financials (XLF +0.32%) was the only other sector to gain for the day. Communications (XLC -1.78%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.87%) were bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) continues to gain at the beginning of this new year. US Treasury 30y (US30Y), 10y (US10Y), and 2y (US02Y) bond yields all gained for the day. Spread on the 10y and 2y is widening while the spread on the 30y and 10y is tightening. Corporate Bonds (HYG) prices dropped for the day, signaling some nervousness from investors. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both continue to drop. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced for another day. Timber (WOOD), Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) all dropped for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.603 as investor optimism remains very bullish. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The biggest four mega-caps all declined for the day. Apple (AAPL) and Alphabet (GOOGL) remain above the key 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Microsoft (MSFT) closed below the 21d EMA while Amazon (AMZN) is below both lines. The relative strength of these big mega-caps compared to the market is at low levels. The has been a bearish sign in the past, but may just be representative of the focus on small caps in recent months. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and Nvidia (NVDA) topped the mega-cap list, giving a pop for semiconductor stocks. The majority of mega-caps were down for the day. Growth stocks had a mix of results. Grow Generation (GRWG) and Lemonade (LMND) led with 13.77% and 14.01% gains respectively. Chinese EV manufacturer NIO (NIO) gained after releasing their new car model over the weekend. Tesla (TSLA) declined for the first time in 12 sessions, losing -7.82%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Economic news tomorrow will include the EIA Short-Term Energy outlook before market open. Several FOMC members will make comments throughout the day. Lots of attention will be paid to the JOLTs Job Openings number to understand how the labor market is doing. No notable earnings reports for this update are scheduled for Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The five-day trend points to a +1.95% gain. The long trend line from the 10/30 bottom points to a gain of +1.15%. The one-day trend points to a -0.22% loss. The 21d EMA is about 2% below the index which should be an area of support if there's further downside. The index also held the 12,550 area recently. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It wasn't a particularly decisive day. The expectation from Friday's action was higher for today, so that expectation was broken and we need to watch closely over the next few days to see what the market wants to do. Investors remain positive on the possibility of more stimulus, resulting in the higher yields in treasury bonds. But the lowered prices on corporate bonds sends the opposite signal. Small caps continue to outperform heading into the new year. I'll continue to watch the mega-caps as their relative strength to the rest of the market continues to weaken. Stay healthy and take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Market Week In Review - 1/4/2021 - 1/8/2021The Market Week in Review is my weekend homework where I look over what happened in the previous week and what might come in the next week. It helps me evaluate my observations, recognize new data points, and create a plan for possible scenarios in the future. I do occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or in the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. If you find this helpful, please let me know in the comments. I am also more than happy to add new perspectives and data points if you have ideas. The structure is the following: A recap of the daily updates that I do here on TradingView. The Meaning of Life, a view on the past week What's coming in the next week The Bullish View, The Bearish View Key index levels to watch out for Wrap-up If you have been following my daily updates, you can skip down to the “The Meaning of Life”. If not, then this first part is a great play-by-play recap for the week. Click the original charts for more detail each day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, January 4, 2021 Lately things, they don't seem the same Facts: -1.47%, Volume higher, Closing range: 37%, Body: 63% Good: Held support around 12,550, some recovery off lows Bad: Thick red body, no upper wick Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Bearish engulfing candle with thick body over long lower wick Expectation: Sideways or Lower It was not a great start to 2021 with the equity markets selling off significantly throughout the day after making morning highs. The Nasdaq nearly reach its all-time high before selling off sharply in the morning. Recovery in the afternoon was not nearly enough to be seen as a positive. The index closed down -1.45% with a closing range of 37% and a thick red body of 63%. The higher high and lower low than the previous day represents a bearish engulfing candle that can indicate bearish sentiment in the market. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, January 5, 2021 There must be some kind of way outta here Facts: +0.95%, Volume higher, Closing range: 94%, Body: 94% Good: Solid day of gains, no lower wick Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Inside day, bullish green body with no lower wick and tiny upper wick Expectation: Sideways or Higher The Nasdaq followed yesterday's bearish session with a bullish rebound today. There is still work to do to get back to all-time highs, but the gains were steady throughout the day as the index never revisited the morning low. The index closed the day with a +0.95% gain on higher volume, closing range of 94% and a thick green body of 94%. The lower wick doesn't exist and the upper wick is very tiny. More than two stocks advanced for every declining stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, January 6, 2021 Bold as Love Facts: -0.61%, Volume higher, Closing range: 35%, Body: 29% Good: Stayed above opening low, held support at around yesterday's low Bad: Sell-off in late afternoon Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Inverted hammer that signals buyers held support despite selling pressure Expectation: Sideways or Higher It was a wild day for the markets as unbelievable events unfolded in the US capitol. The Georgia run-off elections resulted in Democrats taking control of the Senate, realizing the blue wave that was original anticipated with the November elections. The Nasdaq shook off the initial rotation and rose to gains by mid-afternoon, but would sell-off as rioters stormed the US Capitol in protest of election outcomes. The index closed -0.61% on higher volume with a closing range of 35% and a body of 29%. More stocks advanced than declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, January 7, 2021 Ain't no telling, baby When you will see me again, but I pray It will be tomorrow Facts: +2.56%, Volume lower, Closing range: 90%, Body: 90% Good: Everything, bullish candle following the inverted hammer Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: No lower wick, very small upper wick, thick green body Expectation: Higher Finally, everything is finalized and seems we can put the tumultuous election behind us. On top of that, jobless claims data was better than expected and economic activity represented by the Purchasing Managers Index was very positive. The markets responded with a huge gain and new all-time highs among the indexes. The Nasdaq closed with a +2.56% on lower volume, and with a very bullish candle. The closing range of 90% was over a 90% body, resulting in zero lower wick as the index never revisited the low from open. There were nearly three advancing stocks for every declining stock. Over 300 Nasdaq stocks made new highs. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, January 8, 2021 Might even raise a little sand Facts: +1.03%, Volume higher, Closing range: 96%, Body: 24% Good: Bulls win the day, despite selling pressure Bad: Mid-day sell-off Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Smallish green body in upper part of candle, long lower wick Expectation: Higher It was a wild ride for traders today as a Democratic senator seemed to state he'd block new stimulus and then later say he's still considering his decision. That resulted in a mid-day sell-off and looked like the bears would win, but then the Nasdaq turned and closed at new all-time highs. The index closed the day with a +1.03% gain on higher volume. The closing range of 96% and 24% green body over a long lower wick represent the mid-day selling pressure that was eventually overcome by the bulls. There were about the same number of advancing stocks as declining stocks. 275 new highs is less than the previous day, but still a very large number. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Meaning of Life (View on the Week) The first week of 2021 for the markets was filled with twists and turns but ended with gains across all the major indexes. The Nasdaq ended the week with a +2.43% gain; not a bad start to the year. Volume was higher as investors came back from the holidays. The index has a weekly closing range of 99% with a green body of 36.7% at the top of the candle. The Russell 2000 (RUT) was back on top of the major indexes, gaining another +5.91% for the week. The S&P 500 gained +1.83% while the Dow Jones Industrial average gained +1.61%. The VIX closed down -5.23% after spiking at the beginning of the week. The week started on a bearish note as investors came back from the holidays fearing the worst for the pandemic. The UK had announced new lockdowns to control a more contagious mutant of the COVID-19 virus. The index dropped below the 21d EMA, a key indicator line that can show a break down in support. Things recovered in the afternoon, but not nearly enough to look bullish. The VIX volatility index spiked more than 20% before receding. Tuesday was a positive expectation breaker. There was positive news in the manufacturing purchase data that shows economic activity is picking up. The indexes had bullish inside days. Wednesday was the pivotal day of the week. The market aside, the day will be written into American history. Although the day was a loss for markets, it would prove pivotal to the upside for the week. We can hope it will also be pivotal to the upside for United States democracy, and most importantly it's citizens. For the Nasdaq, the day would start with selling as the Georgia run-off elections resulted in Democrats taking control of the senate and a blue wave government was now confirmed. However, investors quickly shrugged off the news and began to buy back discounted tech stocks. That would halt in the afternoon when a siege on the US Capitol hit the news. As rioters broke thru the capitol doors, causing evacuations of politicians and their staff, markets quickly began selling. It really looked dismal for stocks, but it was worth taking a step back. It could have been a lot worse, and what you see in the candle is an inverted hammer. An inverted hammer signals the selling pressure, but that buyers came in to hold the index above the day's lows. That candle is a signal, but only confirmed if the following days were bullish. And Thursday and Friday brought us the confirmation. Thursday would be a big day for markets. Brave members of the US Congress, on both sides of the aisle, reconvened late Wednesday and worked through the night to count and confirm the electoral votes. Friday showed there was still a bit of nervousness when one Democratic senator seemed to oppose the stimulus, causing stocks to briefly sell off. However, he corrected his stance later in the day and markets ended the week at new all-time highs. The weekly chart shows the continued strong momentum in the Nasdaq, despite the pressures on big tech that may come from a Democratic controlled government. The average closing range over the past 10 weeks is 75% as the index has consistently either a higher high or a higher low, both positive signs of support and growth. Volume on positive weeks is much higher than volume on negative weeks. Accumulation continues to outweigh distribution. Energy ( XLE ) finds itself back at the top of the sector list for the first week of 2021. It's not something you might expect as the blue wave hit US politics. The democratic clean energy platform doesn't bode well for traditional energy stocks. However, crude oil is over $50 a barrel for the first time since April after Saudi Arabia surprisingly cut output. The blue wave did have some expected sector impact this week. After the Georgia run-off results showed Democrats would take control of the senate, US Treasury Bond yields took off as investors expect more stimulus that would further impact the US Dollar . That caused Financials ( XLF ), especially big banks, to have big gains on Wednesday and Thursday. Materials ( XLB ) benefited from the blue wave news, as we can expect big investments in US infrastructure with the new administration. Industrials ( XLI ) also had a boost on Wednesday, with some benefit from infrastructure spend, but also several segments like airlines likely to benefit from further stimulus. However, Industrials did not continue the rise and ended the week behind the S&P 500 . Consumer Discretionary ( XLY ) got a boost on Friday, perhaps from higher than expected Consumer credit numbers on top of the promise of new stimulus. Quite a few people had a good Christmas it seems. At the bottom of the list is Real Estate ( XLRE ) which is likely to suffer in the bottom line from the higher interest rates. Technology ( XLK ) had the expected negative reaction to the blue wave on Wednesday but regained from losses on Thursday and Friday to end the week just behind Industrials . Also notable is Utilities ( XLU ) which lost for the week, but had gains on Friday as a defensive move heading into a likely emotion filled weekend for the United States. US Treasury Bond Yields rose significantly for the week as investors reacted to the Democrats winning the senate. Democrats are likely to pass much more stimulus which will further drive investors out of bonds and into other asset classes. The spread between US 10y and US 2y bond yields widened. This had a positive impact on the Financials sector as big banks will benefit from the higher interest rates driven by treasury bond yields. Prices for corporate bonds (HYG) rose while the prices for short-term treasury bonds (IEI) dropped. This represents investors' confidence in corporations ability to pay back debt. That is important since many companies incurred larger than normal debt to weather the pandemic. If companies begin to default on loans, you can bet these bonds will sell-off before we know there's a problem. The US Dollar (DXY) rose +0.19% for the week. The put/call ratio (PCCE) ended the week at 0.563. That is an overly bullish level, but not as low as we've seen preceding recent pullbacks in the market. A contrarian indicator, when the put/call ratio is below 0.7, it signals overly bullish sentiment which typically proceeds a pullback in the market. The indicator was at 0.458 just before the September correction and it was at 0.489 just before the short October correction. Silver (SILVER) was down -3.54% and Gold (GOLD) was down -2.61% as investors moved from the safe-haven back into assets that will benefit from new stimulus. Crude Oil futures was up +7.80% after the surprise cut back in output from Saudi Arabia. Timber (WOOD) was up +3.97%. Copper (COPPER!1) rose +4.59% while Aluminum (ALI1!) rose +1.62%. These increases align with expectations that Democrats will increase spend on infrastructure. It's consistent also with the gains in the Materials and Industrials sectors. It's important to keep an eye on the four biggest mega-caps and how they react to market changes. Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) all ended the week with losses, but are trading above the 10w moving average lines. Microsoft and Amazon briefly dipped below the line, but found support and closed the week above. Alphabet (GOOGL) ended the week with gains. It also dropped below the 10w MA line, but found support. The cannabis industry is certain to benefit from legislature that will more easily pass through congress and be signed by the new administration. Stocks (including the MJ ETF) gapped up on Wednesday. Clean Energy, Electric Vehicles, Financials and Materials were among other stocks that also soared on Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Week Ahead Next week will bring several economic updates. JOLT Job Openings (Nov) on Tuesday and updates on Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday will provide more insight into the jobs market. Consumer price index data and Producer price index data will show any impact the weakened US Dollar is having on inflation. Friday will also bring an update on core retail sales data for December. Traders will closely listen to Jerome Powell who is scheduled to speak on Thursday at 12:30p. The frequency and relative importance of earnings reports will start to pick up next week. Carnival Corp (CCL) and Delta Airlines (DAL) will be among companies reporting who were impacted by the pandemic. Blackrock (BLK), Citigroup (C), JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) will report later in the week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bullish Side This week tested the market. We've been watching for a catalyst for the market to lose support and drop below key support areas. The riots on the US capitol could have been that catalyst. But it wasn't. Even as seller pressure increased on Wednesday, buyers came in and showed this market is not yet ready to become bearish. The inverted hammer on Wednesday was an indicator of support holding and was confirmed with the bullish days on Thursday and Friday. 30y and 10y US Treasury Bond yields rose as investors sold off the safe-haven instrument in favor of other asset classes. That was in anticipation of further stimulus coming from a Democratic controlled congress. That anticipation was confirmed when investors were briefly shaken on Friday by a Democratic senator stating he might not approve the stimulus, reversing some of the actions taken earlier in the week. The senator clarified the comment as he was still deciding and that brought investors back to equities. So the markets continue to rise. The index has closed above the 21d EMA for 45 days. That's 10 weeks of rally, that hasn't yet shown signs of backing down. Certainly there will be pullbacks like we saw on Monday, but we have to follow the market vs worry about an eminent crash that may be months away... -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bearish Side …or it could be tomorrow. Investor sentiment continues to remain overly bullish with NAAIM exposure index heading back to highs. The Put/Call ratio remains below 0.600 The CNN Fear & Greed index is rising again. All of that could be the kind of overly bullish sentiment that precedes a much more severe pullback. The pandemic continues to worsen even as vaccines are becoming more and more available around the world. New lockdowns seem to be popping up with frequency. But the biggest worry for the coming weeks is the transition of power between administrations. The riots at the US Capitol have seemed to only fuel more verbal attacks from the right and the left. If those turn into more than verbal attacks, it could be that start of a very dark time in US history. It seems ominous and unbelievable, but I think the point here is that investors will be on nerves and any hint of worsening conditions could be a catalyst. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Key Nasdaq Levels to Watch There are several key levels in the Nasdaq to keep an eye out for and respond accordingly. First on the positive side: The high of Friday at 13.208.09. It's not far above the close, so I think what we want here is for the index to close above that high early in the week and then stay above that close. The index is pausing about every 300-400 points, so expect some resistance around 13,350 - 13,400 area. On the downside, there are several key levels to raise caution flags: 12,733.04 is the 21d EMA. The index tested that line twice last week and was able to close above it each time. 12,550 had shown as a support area, helped by the 21d EMA. The low of last week is 12,543.24 and is just below the 12,550 support area. The support area of 12,250 is the next area. Hopefully, that area will hold the index above that price level. The 50d MA is at 12,222.76. That is ~7.4% below Thursday's close. The gap with the 50d MA continues to widen. November support area is at 12,000 and a round-number point. A drop to that area would be a certainly correction level. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was a rough week. Lots going on. The market survived it and that’s good news for investors. Looking forward, it will be good to remain cautious while not disengaging too much. More rally could be in front of us. With all the changes, take some time to evaluate your stocks. Look at weekly action vs daily action. Rank the stocks and determine where some additions and some trimming should be based on the changes this week. Most of all, keep in mind your risk plans and update stops as necessary. Good luck, stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 1/8Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (48d), 1/4 (5d) and today 1/8 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or and corrected inline in my blog. I'm working to condense this daily update over the next few weeks. I need to reduce it for both brevity and preparation time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, January 8, 2021 Might even raise a little sand Facts: +1.03%, Volume higher, Closing range: 96%, Body: 24% Good: Bulls win the day, despite selling pressure Bad: Mid-day sell-off Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Smallish green body in upper part of candle, long lower wick Advance/Decline: 1.11, about even advancing and declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.55%), DJI (+0.18%), RUT (-0.99%), VIX (-3.62%) Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.06%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.08%) were top. Industrials (XLI -0.24%) and Materials (XLB -0.48%) were the bottom. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview It was a wild ride for traders today as a Democratic senator seemed to state he'd block new stimulus and then later say he's still considering his decision. That resulted in a mid-day sell-off and looked like the bears would win, but then the Nasdaq turned and closed at new all-time highs. The index closed the day with a +1.03% gain on higher volume. The closing range of 96% and 24% green body over a long lower wick represent the mid-day selling pressure that was eventually overcome by the bulls. There were about the same number of advancing stocks as declining stocks. 275 new highs is less than the previous day, but still a very large number. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) had smaller gains of +0.55% and +0.18% respectively. The Russell 2000 (RUT) showed a bearish candle that tops out at the same high as yesterday, and closes for a loss of -0.99%. The VIX declined by -3.62%. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.06%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.08%) were top sectors for the day. Industrials (XLI -0.24%) and Materials (XLB -0.48%) were the bottom. It's also worth noting Utilities (XLU +0.84%) near the top of the list, signaling some defensive plays in the mix. Also, the four losing sectors for the day, are the leaders for the week and it's likely those sectors just needed to cool off from their heated advances on Wednesday and Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) advanced for a third day. US Treasury 30y (US30Y), 10y (US10Y) had another day of big gains while the 2y (US02Y) bond yield remained flat. The yield spread for US10Y to US2Y widened again with the US10Y yield advancing over 22% for the week. Corporate Bonds (HYG) prices increased while short term treasury bond (IEI) prices dropped. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both dropped -6.26% and -3.38% respectively. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) continues to advance to levels not seen since February 2020. Timber (WOOD) moved sideways after a few days of gains. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) retreated around -0.80% each. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose slightly to 0.563 as investor optimism remains very bullish. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The biggest four mega-caps all advanced for the day. Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL) are trading above the key 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Amazon (AMZN) had closed above its 50d MA, but below its 21d EMA. Tesla (TSLA) tops the mega-cap charts with a +7.84% gain, continuing its spectacular rise. Alibaba (BABA), PayPal (PYPL) and Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) are other top mega-caps for the day. Growth stocks did well. In addition to Tesla, FUTU Holdings (FUTU +12.36%) and NIO (NIO +8.55%) topped the list. Penn National Gaming (PENN +7.14%) and Draft Kings (DKNG +4.48%) also did very well. Twitter (TWTR -1.62%) continued a second day of losses. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The only scheduled big economic news for Monday is FOMC Member Bostic making remarks. However, it is expected that the House will bring new impeachment charges against the president. No notable earnings reports are scheduled for Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The long-term trend line from the 10/30 bottom points to a gain of +0.55%. The one-day trend points to a -0.56% loss. The five-day line points to a smaller loss of -0.30%. The index is well above the 21d EMA which has acted as support recently. That's -3.53% below the close. The index also held the 12,550 area this week. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up I thought the turmoil was behind us once elections were resolved and the capitol clear of rioters. Thursday was super bullish and with stimulus on the way, the market could have nothing but strength. However, investors are still very sensitive to anything popping in the news, as we saw with the comments today from a Democratic senator possibly blocking the stimulus. Looking at the action mid-day, you might have wanted to panic sell, thinking this was the end of a rally. But that would have been quickly proven the wrong action. It's one of those days that reminds us to have a plan and stick to the plan, and don't give too much weight to broad reactions to media. Stay healthy and take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
6
Daily Market Update for 1/7Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (47d), 12/31 (5d) and today 1/7 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or and corrected inline in my blog. I'm working to condense this daily update over the next few weeks. I need to reduce it for both brevity and preparation time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, January 7, 2021 Ain't no telling, baby When you will see me again, but I pray It will be tomorrow Facts: +2.56%, Volume lower, Closing range: 90%, Body: 90% Good: Everything, bullish candle following the inverted hammer Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: No lower wick, very small upper wick, thick green body Advance/Decline: 2.89, Nearly three advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+1.48%), DJI (+0.69%), RUT (+1.89%), VIX (-10.77%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +2.70%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.93%) were top. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.30%) and Utilities (XLU -1.31%) were the bottom. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Finally, everything is finalized and seems we can put the tumultuous election behind us. On top of that, jobless claims data was better than expected and economic activity represented by the Purchasing Managers Index was very positive. The markets responded with a huge gain and new all-time highs among the indexes. The Nasdaq closed with a +2.56% on lower volume, and with a very bullish candle. The closing range of 90% was over a 90% body, resulting in zero lower wick as the index never revisited the low from open. There were nearly three advancing stocks for every declining stock. Over 300 Nasdaq stocks made new highs. The other major indexes also set new all-time highs with very bullish candles. All lows came within the highs of the previous day, so no gap ups to worry about. The VIX declined by -10.77%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) advanced for a second day. US Treasury 30y (US30Y), 10y (US10Y) had another day of big gains while the 2y (US02Y) bond yield stayed flat. The yield spread widened again. Corporate Bonds (HYG) prices increased while short term treasury bond (IEI) prices dropped. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both declined for a second day. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) futures advanced to the highest since February 2020. Timber (WOOD) continued the breakout from a recent base. Copper (COPPER1!) advanced while Aluminum (ALI1!) remained near flat. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio dropped to 0.552 as investor optimism gets very bullish. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The biggest four mega-caps all advanced for the day. Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL) regained losses from the previous day. Amazon (AMZN) had gains early in the day, but then sold off to close below its 21d EMA and 50d MA. Microsoft closed below its 21d EMA. Nvidia (NVDA) is near the top of the mega-caps list, gaining +5.78% after being at the bottom yesterday. Tesla (TSLA) gained +7.94% while Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) gained +5.03%. PayPal (PYPL) also reversed losses with a +3.62% gain. Most growth stocks did very well for the day with NIO (NIO +7.49%), Cloudflare (NET +7.85%) and Peloton (7.12%) joining Tesla at the top of the list. Twitter (TWTR -1.75%) had losses, possibly due to the turmoil around Trump's twitter account (seen as a boost to twitter's traffic in recent years). Bed Bath & Beyond (BBY) missed quarterly revenue estimates and dropped 10%. They announced before market open. Semiconductor stock Micron Technology beating earnings and is up 1.45% in afterhours trading. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Friday will bring more updates on the labor market with Hourly Earnings, Nonfarm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate data being released before market open. Later in the morning FOMC member Clarida will speak. No notable earnings reports are scheduled for Friday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The one-day trend points to a +1.38% gain. The long-term trend line from the 10/30 bottom points to a more modest gain of +0.41%. The five-day line points to a -0.61% loss. The index is well above the 21d EMA which has acted as support recently. That's -2.89% below the close. The index also held the 12,550 area this week. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The market seems favorable to get past the volatility of the election drama, and that's understandable. Of course, there is probably some price discovery to happen across sectors as investors understand better the impact of a Democratic majority in Congress and a Democratic president in the White House. Stay healthy and take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
High Correlation - BTC vs. NASDAQ CompositeWhat a bull-run right now it Bitcoin. I think no one had expect such a massive pump in Bitcoin. It´s crazy which pace and upside moves we see everyday. Are these all ready the institutional investors we were looking for, or is it just Grayscale and MicroStrategy and they accumulate more and more Bitcoins every day? It´s crazy to be honest. But yeah, it might still not be the end of that road-trip we see here. In the last couple of weeks there were no sellers. Every dip were used to buy Bitcoins and pushed the price to new highs. Insane. What I observed could we very important and interesting for you. Bitcoin might boost within the next weeks or months to $50.000. This is not unrealistic. Compared to the NASDAQ Composite you can see, that Bitcoin is running 4x faster then the Tech-Index. The correlation is impressive is very high between both indices. This will for sure surprise a lot who see this chart. We see 5 cycles which are close to identical. And if the Bitcoin will perform similar to the NASDAQ Composite after its breakout over the old All-Time-High from the Tech-Bubble, Bitcoin has still 25% upside-potential until it will reach $50.000. Here we might see the first bigger correct. Don´t be surprised if the correction might be 30%, 40% or even 50%. Still, a 50% correction from $50.000 are still $25.000. This is still a lot when you think back to March 2020, when Bitcoin was at $5.000. Absolute no one knows what will happen in the near future to Bitcoin. But what we know, it will be an exiting and funny trip. Doesn´t matter if Bitcoin will rally to $1mio. or back to $5.000. If you like this kind of analysis, give this article a like or just follow me, so you don´t miss out anything what might be interesting for you. Many Thanks, IndexVision
TVC:IXICLong
by IndexVision
Daily Market Update for 1/6Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (46d), 12/30 (5d) and today 1/6 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or and corrected inline in my blog. I'm working to condense this daily update over the next few weeks. I need to reduce it for both brevity and preparation time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, January 6, 2021 Bold as Love Facts: -0.61%, Volume higher, Closing range: 35%, Body: 29% Good: Stayed above opening low, held support at around yesterday's low Bad: Sell-off in late afternoon Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Inverted hammer that signals buyers held support despite selling pressure Advance/Decline: 1.64, Three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.57%), DJI (+1.44%), RUT (+3.98%), VIX (-1.07%) Sectors: Financials (XLF +4.42%) and Materials (XLB +4.09%) were top. Communications (XLC -0.48%) and Technology (XLK -1.72%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview It was a wild day for the markets as unbelievable events unfolded in the US capitol. The Georgia run-off elections resulted in Democrats taking control of the Senate, realizing the blue wave that was original anticipated with the November elections. The Nasdaq shook off the initial rotation and rose to gains by mid-afternoon, but would sell-off as rioters stormed the US Capitol in protest of election outcomes. The index closed -0.61% on higher volume with a closing range of 35% and a body of 29%. More stocks advanced than declined. The other major indexes set new all-time highs before the afternoon sell-off. The rotation was moving investors back into Financials, Materials and Industrials as well as small-cap stocks. The Russell 2000 performed the best among the indexes, rising over 5% before settling back to just below 4% at close. The VIX declined by -1.07%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) advanced for the day. US Treasury 30y (US30Y), 10y (US10Y)and 2y (US02Y) bond yields all gained for the day. The yield curves expanded significantly. Corporate Bonds (HYG) price declined but were outpaced by the decline in short term treasury bond (IEI) prices. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) futures advanced to the highest since February 2020. Timber (WOOD) broke out of a recent base. Copper (COPPER1!) advanced while Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio dropped to 0.570. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The biggest four mega-caps all declined sharply for the day as investors rotated away from big tech firms. Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) all closed below their 21d EMA. Only Apple closed above its 30d MA. The financial mega-caps performed best for the day. Bank of America (BAC) and JP Morgan Chase (JPM) advanced 6.26% and 4.70% respectively. The anticipated stimulus from a blue wave government will raise yield prices, increasing interest rate income that benefits banks. Nvidia (NVDA) was among the big tech companies with a significant losses, dropping -5.90% for the day. Popular growth stocks were also impacted by the day's events. New energy stocks including Solar Edge (SEDG) did well. Gaming stocks Draft Kings and Penn National Gaming also closed the day with gains. Many other growth stocks closed with 5-6% losses. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Thursday will bring an update on Initial Jobless Claims before market open. Later in the morning, an update on non-manufacturing PMI data will be released indicating economic activity in service sectors. Two FOMC board members will speak tomorrow. Several retail companies will release earnings tomorrow including Walgreen Boots Alliance (WBA), Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) and Helen of Troy (HELE). Micron Technology (MU) will be the first of large semiconductors to announce earnings this year. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The long-term trend line from the 10/30 bottom points to a +2.37% gain. The one-day trend points to a +0.71% gain. The five-day line points to a -0.06% loss. The index held the 12,550 area this week. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was a tough day. Not only was it tough as a trader, but it was tough to deal with what occurred in the US capitol. As a trader, give yourself time to reflect and observe and center yourself on your own trading system before making a plan for the rest of this week. The inverted hammer signals there was seller pressure in the afternoon, but buyers held support above the morning lows which was a positive sign heading into close. Stay healthy and take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
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