$NASDAQ:LI Position TradeNASDAQ:LI A possible position trade above the 52week high. I will wait for a base above the 52 week high and clear blue skies if it continues
LI trade ideas
LI , a Chinese EV manufacturer LONGLI has seen a 60% price rise since significantly beating the earnings estimates of the analysts.
LI competes with TSLA and NIO primarily in Chinese and perhaps a little in Scandinavia. It
does not import to North America. The 2H chart shows price rising consistently in a channel
between the first and second standard deviation lines above the mean anchored VWAP
demonstrating trend persistence and momentum. The zero-lag MACD shows a line cross
at the zero horizontal line and rising as confirmation of bullish momentum. I see $40
as a reasonable target at the level of the 3rd upper standard deviation lines. With the
next earnings report due August 21st, I will take a long trade of ten call options striking
$38.00 expiring 8/18/23. On the last trading day, this option had a low of $1.75 and
a high of $1.90 for an intraday rise of about 8%. The contracts will cost about $1900.
I am expecting about a 3% average rise compounded over 30 trading days or 250%
return on the trade.
$LI Swimming Against The CurrentWith its plans to ramp up its production in Q4 2023 to meet the huge demand it is seeing, Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) may see an increase in sales in Q4 which could see it reaching full year profitability for the first time in its history. Meanwhile, LI stock has the potential to continue soaring on the upcoming June 2023 delivery data if its deliveries increase from the 28,277 it delivered in May. Given LI’s trend of growing its deliveries despite the headwinds facing other Chinese EV companies, LI stock could be a profitable long-term hold.
LI Fundamentals
Promising Deliveries
While other EV makers like Nio (NYSE: NIO) and XPENG (NYSE: XPEV) are seeing a decline in deliveries and are making production and delivery cuts, LI increased its deliveries in May to 28,277 vehicles, a 146% increase YoY. That would mean that LI is well on its way to achieving its 76,000–81,000 delivery target for Q2 since it delivered 25,681 vehicles in April, and if LI can replicate its May deliveries in June, it may even exceed its target.
May would be the third consecutive month for Li to deliver over 20,000 vehicles, which are mostly driven by the Li L7, which had more than 10,000 deliveries for the second consecutive month.
LI has delivered more than 106 thousand vehicles as of May 2023, which makes it the third-top Chinese EV maker in terms of deliveries in China, trailing behind BYD (OTC: BYDDF) and Aion (OTCPK: GNZUF).
Increasing Production Capacity
With the high demand LI is seeing for its vehicles, CEO, Xiang Li, announced that the company is planning to increase its production capacity from 7,500 vehicles a week to 10,000 vehicles a week by Q4 2023 through the addition of new equipment.
The increased production capacity may improve LI’s profitability since it could lead to an increase in sales. At the same time, scaling production could have a positive impact on LI’s profit margins which could see the company achieve its first full year of profitability. Given the stock’s average price target of $40.33, LI stock could reach a higher level if the company is profitable in 2023 – which could make the current PPS a bargain.
LI Financials
In its Q1 2023 report, LI’s assets increased 9% QoQ from ¥86 billion to ¥94 billion, and its cash and cash equivalents increased 14% QoQ from ¥38 billion to ¥43.6 billion. LI’s total liabilities increased by 14% QoQ from ¥41 billion to ¥47 billion.
Revenue also increased 100% YoY from ¥9 billion to ¥18 billion. Operating costs increased almost 36% from ¥2.5 billion to ¥3.4 billion, which contributed to the operating income increase of 198% YoY from ¥413 million in operating loss to ¥405 million in operating income. As a result, LI reported a net income of ¥933 million – a YoY increase from the ¥10.8 net loss it recorded last year.
Technical Analysis
LI stock’s trend is bullish with the stock trading in an upwards channel. Looking at the indicators, the stock is trading above the 200, and 50 MAs which are bullish indications, and is currently testing the 21 MA as a resistance. Meanwhile, the RSI is approaching overbought at 64 and the MACD is bearish.
As for the fundamentals, LI stock just witnessed two catalysts in the delivery update for May and its CEO announcing the production capacity increase that is planned for Q4 2023. If LI reached or exceeded its Q2 2023 delivery target, it could be a huge future catalyst for LI stock, since most other EV manufacturers are seeing declining sales. At the same time, if LI is able to report full year profitability thanks to the planned production increase, the stock could soar to greater heights.
LI Forecast
LI is currently one of the most exciting EV manufacturers in the Chinese market with the huge increase in its deliveries growth. Furthermore, while other EV manufacturers are making production and delivery cuts, LI is planning to increase its production capacity by 33% by Q4 2023. LI stock is currently one of the EV stocks to watch for since a lot of EV stocks are underperforming currently.
Li Auto is about to manipulate the highs it made a year ago!I annotated this chart so hard this time and I know its annoying to look at...but you have your own clean screens to look at it... This should atleast explain what I see and help those who don't know, what to look for. I accidentally came across this chart because I was trying to type bili bili but when i saw the chart with my ESVO lines on it I was like I have to play it. So for me this is just an update to this play that I got into a week ago. Obviously it looks a lot better now that we are here. And I never once thought my bias was wrong as you can tell it didn't want to dump. Because if it did want to it would have. The price was always withing a dollar or a dollar and change to the entry. Now that it has come back to this area I broke down everything the lines are telling me plus everything I see with the amount of space that I have to work with. I could go into about 5 other kinds of trading styles and break those down but I figure I will just leave it at this. Its bullish! All the other stocks in the group are moving with it. So that tells me that big money has been fostering this group of stocks to get it to this point over the last year or less. Since the last highest high.
So that should tell you there is a pile of shorts up there that need to be covered for them to continue this move up above that. unless there is a massive surge of volume it might take a while to consolidate all of them. I will be looking for a trend line that this will be tapping into over the duration of this move. And also a trend change which shows that liquidation of shares has begone and that we should be looking for an exit.
I do think this could take another 3-6 months to complete. all of the hot areas for this stock are marked on this chart with the exception of the three just below our current price.
And Current Price of HKEX:26 this weeks highest volume area
$24 Automatic, Session, Daily, Highest High
HKEX:23 Daily. Weekly
HKEX:22 Highest Low
all great supports as they are all stacked under us.
If nothing else I think we should hit HKEX:30 however, HKEX:38 and $41.50 are also huge areas of untapped stop losses and pockets of retailers waiting.
by iCantw84it
04.17.23
The AVWAP from the June 2022 highs now belong to the buyers!A good long setup here with earnings out of the way. The stock gapped up on heavy volume after a good earnings report. This gap up also happened to be above the AVWAP from the June highs.
Currently the stock is consolidating after the strong run up from the $21 area all the way towards the $30 area.
In my opinion, the $26 - $27 range provides a good buying opportunity in anticipation of a move towards the $40 level.
Li Auto becoming Tesla’s closest competitor in China Li Auto Inc. shares (symbol ‘LI’) managed to make a profit in the first quarter of around 14% in a pretty volatile environment. The company’s earnings report for the fiscal quarter ending March 2023 is set to be released on Wednesday 10th of May, before market open. The consensus EPS for the quarter is $0,01 compared to the same quarter last year of $0.
‘ The company has announced on May 1st that they have delivered more than 25,000 cars in April, the highest in history, and more than five times more than in 2022. This achievement allowed Li Auto to throw off rivals Xpeng Motors and NIO becoming the closest competitor to Tesla in China's high-end EV market.’ said Antreas Themistokleous at Exness.
From the technical analysis perspective the share has faced big volatility movements throughout all of the months in 2023 mostly because of the price wars that rage in China from EV competitors in an effort to get more market share.
The Bollinger bands are still quite expanded indicating that the volatility in the market is still strong while the 50 SMA is still holding above the 100 SMA validating the narrative of a bullish momentum still in play. Currently the price is trading at a strong technical support area on the daily chart which includes the 20 & 50 SMAs as well as the 23.6% of the weekly Fibonacci retracement level.
LI Auto Looking very clean and Bullish Loving these levelsWas actually typing in bili and ended up pulling up this chart. As soon as it came up the chart grabbed my attention. So i had to chart it and Im actually entering a position on a call. everything looks bullish about this. the lines are so clean on it. and the set up with the ESVO looks juicy. last time I said that SQ went up $9 in 3 days.
If you like this check out ENPH, BiLI, IOT. Traded Apple earlier this week for a quick $3 right at open. Called both ENPH and Apples pull back to the exact zones and currently in Bili and about to be LI. Possibly getting in IOT after one of those. and ENPH once its more clear if institutional is picking it back up or not. DM me for any request or questions.
by iCantw84it
03.30.23
Li Auto is the price going to continue to drop?Li Auto has been red for the last few days but if you look at the price action its been trying to hold its own and hasn't really dumped. Somethings changing or happening right now and I believe its a balance shift. In this video I use this perfect oppurtunity to show how the ESVO can show you where Absorption has been hit, when momentum has shifted, and where price targets are for potential push down to absorb the remainder of the float or to repeat the N pattern(pain pattern that creates the catalyst for an upwards movement off the bottom.)
Of course, if you find any of this intriguing pls like, follow, and most of all boost so others can find my videos. Thank you!
by iCant84it
04.05.23
Watchlist 2023-03-01 #Li #FHN #MNST #AI #HLMN SPY - weakness continues, failing to approach yesterday's PD high and flushing past the PD low to finish off the trading day. Gapping up this morning back into supply. Bias is short.
Li, BABA, BIDU (Chinese DRs) - strong economic data out of China offsets downbeat earnings reports. Li specifically gapping over 200 EMA, over the high RVOL earnings day wide range red bar, and over the downtrend channel. Be cautious as ADRs with relative strength like BIDU are gapping into resistance.
FHN - doesn't expect it will receive regulatory OK in time to complete its $13.4 billion acquisition by May 27, which priced the shares at a cash buyout of 25 1 year ago from TD bank. Insane ATR move this morning, down 54 Atrs on 6M share vol. Seeing some strong buying at key levels in the PM. Long bias but will let the price action tell me. Important to note that shares are probably trading at value where they were 1 year ago before the acquisition. Also, not that the deal COULD still go through, just likely not by may. Key support 18.70, 19.46. key Resistance. 20.50, 21.30
MNST - Fourth-Quarter Results Miss Street Views on Foreign-Exchange Headwinds, Higher Costs. Down 2.5 ATR, under key 98.50 pivot. Room to 96,23 pivot at 200 EMA. Because the low vol I'd need to see a retracement and rejection higher for confirmation and to improve RR because considering a short
AI - forming a wedge on the daily. Would preferring to see one more daily of consolidation, with fakeout below 21.38 or a double top at 22.80 where prices has a more clear resistance to breakout from. Either of those scenarios I am interested in a long with target to 26 area.
Short Watches:
HLMN - Upsized Secondary Offering at $8 Per Share.
I focus on names trading elevate RVOL>2, trading past key ranges and pivots, preferably with news catalysts.
Yellow = Support
Purple = Resistance
Red = short opportunity
Green= long opportunity
LI H&SYou can look at this as a H&S or a pennant reversal, either way it looks like it's headed down next week.
US market looks pretty bullish but China always does its own thing. Be careful because they trade Monday.
Li AUTOHorizontal behaviour - there is not trend.
There is a Potential support at 23.5 USD, If not broken, go long otherwise hold for the next support about 21 USD before going long.
interesting setup here on LI😍bounce here and rally to 30 should follow, break of trend support zone/23.87 and look for dump to 18.50 pivot level
Boost and follow for more, thanks <3
Li Auto Options Ahead Of EarningsLooking at the Li Auto options chain, i would buy the $30 strike price Puts with
2023-1-20 expiration date for about
$4.15 premium.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
NIO NIO Massive MOVE INCOMING!!Here is the map for a life changing trade. It is a simple comparIson of NIO, LI, XPEV. See you at 35.00 miniuium.
dumpy before pumpy 👀posted analysis on june 29 warning it was very overbought and shorts will pay below 35.
today I am saying its oversold and longs will pay when we reclaimed extreme support/break trend resistance.
that is all, thanks for coming to my ted talk 😜
LI | Loving This Play | EVLi Auto Inc., through its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures, and sells new energy vehicles in the People's Republic of China. The company provides Li ONE, a six-seat smart electric sport utility vehicle that is equipped with smart vehicle solutions, navigation on ADAS, and automatic emergency breaking functionalities. It also offers sales and after sales management, and technology development and corporate management services, as well as purchases manufacturing equipment. The company was formerly known as Leading Ideal Inc. and changed its name to Li Auto Inc. in July 2020. Li Auto Inc. was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.
Low Risk High Reward Swing Calls on $LINews prompted this stock to make a bullish reversal open today, as shown by the white arrow. The gray box highlights a bullish engulfing candle, and it is common for the initial demand to see a selloff that moves price lower. If price will rise again then there should be upside follow through in the next day or two.
RSI has a bullish divergence with price action and Stochastic %K shows some strength to lead %D upwards. I like that there are no gaps immediately below and you can see the recent high volume days on 13 Sep and today; the recent red candles have lower volume.
Li Auto at 61.8% fib? Li Auto
Short Term
We look to Buy at 26.22 (stop at 24.22)
Further upside is expected although we prefer to buy into dips close to the 26.22 level. The medium term bias remains bullish. Downward pressure has continued and we are assessed as being in the corrective leg lower before the next rally. The bias is still for higher levels and we look for any dips to be limited. Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile.
Our profit targets will be 31.17 and 44.10
Resistance: 32.00 / 36.90 / 40.00
Support: 26.20 / 22.22 / 18.90
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis, like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis, as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
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#SuakuFlowsWatchlist - 17/8/22#SuakuFlowsWatchlist
EXP: 19AUG22
$LI 32C > 31.87 | 30.5P < 30.51
KIV the S/D levels that will need to be chewed through.
PT Updates:
GS $51.00 > $46.00 🔽
CITI $58.60 > $48.00 🔽
UBS $60.00 > $58.00 🔽
$LI still looking goodStill being patient with $LI here giving it time to setup.
I've tweeted about this multiple times so still a focus stock this week.
LI AnalysisPrice is on an uptrend, and is currently having a short-term retracement to the downside to mitigate the bullish POI at 32.78. We see a bounce from this bullish POI, but price is unable to close high within the day despite relatively high volume on 1 August 2022. We could see price continue upwards, mitigating the bearish POI at 37.13 before we see a down move. However, I'm leaning towards price taking out this bullish POI and filling the fair value gap at 28.22 before price goes higher
Looking for a breakdown on LI Insidish candles, below the 10 EMA...... lots of room on the downside to the 100, 200 daily
Li- moving upBased on moving average and trend line i believe we will see Li at 38$ very soon.
38$ is our area of interest. Reaction at $38 can send Li higher.
Buying it on leverage and hoping for the best!
This is not financial advicem
