2/11/25 - $lyft - valuation matters. px go up.2/11/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:LYFT
valuation matters. px go up.
- uber is like Big Balls/ Harry Bolz
- and lyft is like peanut the squirrel
- they both got nut
- but okay, seriously, lyft is defn a crappy #2 to uber. we all know this. i wrote about "why i don't buy #2" in my NASDAQ:DASH post, even tho i still think #s are good (Dash reports tn hence the comment)
- but here's the deal with $lyft... if you think about NYSE:UBER as a demand aggregator in the world of AV, and while they have a BIG headstart... there's still 5 y of runway to accumulate customers, scale, strategy etc. and at FWB:5BN enterprise value, that's a micro vs. Uber at >$150 bn.
- and with mobility trends at NYSE:UBER strong in 4Q... good outlook for 2025 (and remember USD strength was the sticking pt on UBER print... well it wasn't for some of us - but for the ST reaction... it is probabaly *less* of a sticking pt for NASDAQ:LYFT which is more US centric).
- with expanding mgns, similar-ish growth (industry floats similar boats)... but nearly 10% fcf yields... any good print here sends NASDAQ:LYFT up 20%. a miss maybe -5-10%.
so the R/R here is skewed positive. keeping it small. i play all my edges, and size accordingly. i'd view this one as a slight edge on today's give-back which is more market/ broader risk related not fundamental driven.
let's see.
V
