Correction Coming?There is a good chance 5 waves up here have completed and we're going to start correcting hard - there is also the possibility I'm off by 1 high but structure fits for this count to be valid.
MSFT trade ideas
MSFT Knock-knock: Support?MICROSOFT seems to have found some kind of support, let's see the macro and how it will continue but I am entering on a long trade here... with a small portion of my capital tho.
Microsoft: Strategies for Correction 🛠️Microsoft (MSFT): NASDAQ:MSFT
We remain steadfast in our primary scenario for Microsoft , which suggests a significant correction is underway. Thus far, there have been no deviations from this expectation.
Upon closer examination of the 2-hour chart, we observe that the subordinate Wave (B) precisely reached our targeted 127-138% retracement levels. We now anticipate a similar overshooting movement downwards, surpassing Wave (A), towards Wave (C), and subsequently the overarching Wave (a).
Unless we breach the $420 to $422 level, we do not foresee a continuation of the upward trend. A broader view on the two-day chart indicates that Wave 5 should ideally conclude at the 61.8% extension, implying a possible rise to $430. However, this is not certain. If we are experiencing a flat correction, the outcome could exceed this level depending on the origin of Wave A. Nonetheless, a subsequent downturn should be expected unless we surpass the corresponding 138% level.
The precise location of the 138% marker remains undetermined until we establish the position of Wave A, which we currently project to align with Wave 4, around the $160 to $175 level.
Downturn CorrectedThe second big downturn had begun on March 4th. It has been retraced today. As we saw a second corrective downwave of the long rise since January I expect another corrective move down now to test the bottom of January 31st again.
It will intensify when the (red) MA is broken.
MSFT - Price PredictionMSFT is at the top. Getting ready for Sell. Analyze it for yourself before you take any step. This is not financial advice.
MSFT to recover 412?kinda bullish on this. empty space full of money $$$$ if it can hold over the box its gonna fly. if not back to the bottom of it we go
MSFT - Microsoft - buying idea Dear traders,
Id like to share this idea in order to take long positions, basically the price is consolidating after the rally.
390- 400$ is is a good price range to look for buying opportunities. Targeting around 450$.
Additionally RSI is relaxing as it got a very overbought area.
best,
MSFT: The risks of selling shortNASDAQ:MSFT ran down yesterday but is reaching the low of the support today.
The next tier of support is outlined also from the Dec-Jan Buy Zone ahead of earnings season.
The risk day traders are taking selling short is if it runs below the low of the support and the Dark Pools surface to buy below its fundamental price level. This is why selling short is risky at this time. Support is around $397.
The big question is where are the lows for fundamental levels for the next quarterly report. MSFT had higher revenues with slightly lower earnings. The CFO did not adjust earnings. It could gap or run down on news, but fundamentals are not way below the current price.
Microsoft Hit Overbought zoneNASDAQ:MSFT is hitting the potential overbought zone. Closing off a long trade last week with 1% profit.
End of Day Commentary $NASDAQ $NVDA $TSLAEnd of the day commentary for the most of the trading instruments
$MSFT to go above $450 for blow off top?NASDAQ:MSFT had a strong bounce from $397 and looks set to continue a move higher.
I think we could see a very strong move over the next few weeks which sends MSFT up and over the $450 range to new highs.
If we get up there, I think this will end up being the final move for MSFT before heading much lower. Yes, I was too early on my original top call , however, still think the same outcome will prevail after hitting this range. Will update the bearish view if this top gets hit.
I bought 3/8 $450C prior to NVDA earnings, let's see if this range gets hit before then.
Microsoft Bullish Cup and Handle Microsoft - NASDAQ:MSFT
A bullish monthly and weekly chart:
✅Monthly MACD Cross
✅ Long Term parallel channel intact
✅ Above 200 day & week MA
✅ Cup and Handle (with a high handle - Preferred)
✅ Good Risk: Reward Ratio at 7.6 (51%+ vs -7% loss)
⚠️ Stop loss levels on chart 🫡
A great set up. Those that are patient could wait for a potential pull back (arrow on chart) as we are reaching into overbought levels on the RSI on the weekly. It would not be unusual for Microsoft to pull back 5-8%. The R:R would be significantly improved if you waited and if it led to an entry from approx. $350 (after a 5-8% pull back), this would line up with the 200 DSMA also. However there are no guarantees of a pull back.
Those half as cautious could enter half a position here and see what happens and place another entry at $350.
All in all the $330 - 335 red box area on the chart is an absolute stop loss level. If this level is lost I would be out of the trade fast.
So you have options with this set up:
1) Entry here with a tight 7% stop.
2) Half a position here and half at approx. $350 with a stop at $335.
3) You wait for $350 and you place your stop at $330.
These all result in a similar loss of 5 - 7% in the event the trade fails. The upside potential is always 50%+. You can always cut early also at target one and take something at the 26% profit level.
It important you take full responsibility for your trade, position accordingly and be ok with the small 5-7% loss as it will likely happen, we are only leaning on the probability that maybe 60-70% of the time these trade set up provide us the return we want.
I have not really ventured into the earnings or dividends however they are both positive contributors to this trade as earnings have been excellent and dividends whilst minimal, are dividends at the end of the day. We are here for the trade and play a set up off the chart. The fundamental's are just nice framing for the stock in our minds eye.
PUKA
MSFT - Strong chance of a rejection and move downI will be looking out today for a rejection from our strong orange selling channel to add to our right shoulder liquidity (within the larger daily H&S) - this will then trigger all the left shoulder liquidity and allow for a move down to minimum $401 in the coming days and I see even $392 (green channel support) in the coming weeks.
Let me know what you think - of course, if yellow continuation is able to break us out of orange and teal selling today then we have a chance at a retest and break of blue buy-side tapering. However it looks like the bears have been preparing for this larger drop (and the bulls on the other side could use more liquidity for the break of this strong channel).
Microsoft - A possible top ?Possible top in Microsoft. Elliott seems to agree. Now waiting for Wyckoff to do it's magic.
- Possible Head and Shoulder (not the shampoo) forming ?
- Work of pure fiction and magic.
No financial advice given.
Microsoft's Deal With Mistral AI Faces Regulatory ScrutinyMicrosoft's ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) recent collaboration with French startup Mistral AI has sparked outrage among European lawmakers, prompting calls for a thorough investigation into what is perceived as a consolidation of power by the Redmond-based company.
The European Union, already scrutinizing Microsoft's partnership with OpenAI, raised additional alarms as news broke of the tech giant's 15-million euro investment in Paris-based Mistral AI. The investment, earmarked for integrating Mistral's AI models into Microsoft's Azure cloud computing platform, has set off a wave of apprehension regarding potential antitrust violations and monopolistic practices.
Despite assurances from Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) that its investment does not confer ownership in Mistral, but rather equity in future funding rounds, skepticism persists among policymakers in Brussels. The deal has fueled concerns that Microsoft's growing influence in the European AI landscape could stifle competition and innovation, particularly among smaller startups.
The timing of the announcement, coinciding with ongoing discussions surrounding the EU's comprehensive AI Act, has further exacerbated tensions. Mistral's purported lobbying efforts for exemptions under the AI Act have drawn scrutiny, with some lawmakers questioning the authenticity of claims regarding the protection of European startups.
European Parliament members, including Brando Benefei and Kim van Sparrentak, have raised doubts about Mistral's motivations and its alignment with American-influenced tech lobbying efforts. Allegations of a concerted effort to circumvent regulations under the guise of supporting "European champions" have cast a shadow over the integrity of negotiations surrounding the AI Act.
Alexandra Geese echoed concerns over the concentration of power and resources, urging for a thorough investigation into Mistral's conduct and potential collusion with the French government. The call for scrutiny underscores broader apprehensions regarding the unprecedented convergence of money and influence in the tech industry.
As calls for investigation mount, Max von Thun of the Open Markets Institute emphasizes the urgency of assessing the partnership's implications. The perceived discrepancy between Mistral's advocacy as a "European champion" and its alignment with Microsoft's interests underscores the need for regulatory vigilance in safeguarding fair competition and innovation.
In response to inquiries, both Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) and Mistral AI have declined to comment, while the French government remains silent on the matter. With stakeholders clamoring for transparency and accountability, the EU faces mounting pressure to address concerns over tech giant influence and ensure a level playing field for all players in the rapidly evolving digital landscape.
Microsoft (MSFT) Short Term Support AreaCycle from 12.4.2023 low ended with wave (1) at 421.33 as the 30 minutes chart below shows. The stock then is pulling back in wave (2) with internal subdivision as a double three. Down from wave (1), wave ((a)) ended at 408.84 and wave ((b)) ended at 416.1. Wave ((c)) lower ended at 403.39 which completed wave W in higher degree. Up from there, wave ((a)) ended at 410.07 and wave ((b)) ended at 404.57. Wave ((c)) higher ended at 412 which completed wave X. The stock then resumed lower in wave Y.
Down from wave X, wave ((a)) ended at 403.53 and wave ((b)) ended at 407.45. Wave ((c)) lower ended at 397.23 which completed wave Y of (2). The stock has turned higher in wave (3), but it still needs to break above wave (1) at 421.33 to rule out a double correction. Up from wave (2), wave ((i)) ended at 400.71 and wave ((ii)) ended at 397.56. Wave ((iii)) higher ended at 412.83 and wave ((iv)) ended at 408.64. Wave ((v)) ended at 415.86 which completed wave 1 in higher degree. Down from wave 1, wave ((a)) ended at 408.97 and wave ((b)) ended at 412.16. Expect wave ((c)) lower to reach 400.9 – 405.2 before it completes wave 2 and turns higher. Near term, as far as pivot at 397.23 low stays intact, expect pullback to find support in 3, 7, 11 swing for more upside.
Developing Top in MSFTClear pivot zone at 412, it's found sellers multiple times, and the attempted pierces above it have been aggressively sold off
The stock held above it for about a day, then a nasty gap lower to retest VWAP
The longer the stock stays under this, the more volume that's built out and the higher the odds we see a strong rollover
put calendars weapon of choice
$MSFT Short idea NASDAQ:MSFT is showing bearish divergence on the RSI on the daily timeframe. We also see that price action has started to consolidate and the shorter term moving averages starting to curl. The $400 whole number would be a good entry to take MSFT short.
Short under $400 on MSFT.
MSFT - Head & Shoulders PatternMSFT - there's a well defined HS pattern here with a gap from NVDA ER. Gaps usually fill because lack of volume at the price range, but this isn't the case with MSFT. Above the shoulder line @145.50 will nullify the HS pattern and below the 400 will confirm the pattern. With the way the market has been moving I wouldn't be surprised if the pattern becomes voided. (edited)
Microsoft Replicating 1987 SPX ChartSince Microsoft bought ChatGPT back in March 2023, the price of NASDAQ:MSFT stock has gone on to replicate the same pattern as the 1987 S&P500 stock market rally.
Does it mean anything all by itself? No. It still needs a catalyst for the drop to happen. The 1987 stock market crash had many triggers and catalysts and the drop was a sharp 40% from August 28th, 1987 to October 19th 1987.
What would cause a sharp 40% drop in NASDAQ:MSFT ? You all could type in your guess in a reply to this chart. It could come about under a variety of situations, but it would take an act of Government regulation or a major sea-change in laws or the business environment.
When you see people posting "overlays" of the market to past debacles, you will find almost NONE of them work.
Last year in January I posted a pattern where NASDAQ:TSLA was mimicking the fundamental and technical price pattern that NYSE:MCD McDonalds had from over a decade ago when it fell 75% on a rough patch for its business. It turned out to be identical and NASDAQ:TSLA rallied over 150% last year just exactly the same as happened to $MCD. I'll post the link down below for you to view.
The overlay here between NASDAQ:MSFT and the 1987 SP:SPX is pretty amazing but we have no catalysts to make it drop. Stay tuned on any weakness and look for cheap hedges (long term puts out to July-Oct-Dec for this year). Don't spend more than 1% of an account to hedge a position, but if you hedge it correctly you can protect against a large decline without much cost to a portfolio.
Here's hoping this pattern doesn't 'pan-out' because it would be or could be very disruptive to the markets.
Wishing you all health and success in the markets this year and thanks to TradingView for all of the great tools for doing research!
Cheers,
Tim
Friday, February 23, 2024 8:59PM EST
Who's left to buy? And if so for how much longer?As stated in my previous idea I'm of the belief big tech is close to topping out, When I view these charts I can see cases for all to be nearing a top (yes they can go higher) but It won't matter much if the overall trend is close to terminating. Ask yourself logically who is actually left to buy here and happy about it? and if so how much longer can they do it for?, The potential downside risk on all of these trumps the short term gains you might make.
