MSFT GOOD OR BAD TRADESo let me know your thoughts on this trade. Should I stay in it or get out while I'm behind.
MSFT trade ideas
Microsoft Head & Shoulders, $MSFTMicrosoft, the third largest company by weight continues to struggle since July. The troublesome part is that it appears to be building up a massive head and shoulders pattern all of this year. Additionally, the third shoulder is also looking like a huge bear flag and remains weak compared to the overall market.
Microsoft: Progress!The Microsoft stock has now successfully completed wave B in turquoise at $444.95. So, now we locate the price in the subsequent wave C, which is set to finalize the overarching three-part wave in dark green. This suggests further declines, with an ideal low just below $400. Following the low of the overarching wave , Microsoft should initiate a new upward impulse. While there’s a 25% chance that wave alt. in dark green has already hit its low, this alternative scenario will only be confirmed if the stock breaks above $469.55.
MSFT Microsoft 24Hr potterboxMicrosoft is above the cost basis line . or the red line in the middle. If Microsoft opens above $423.71 cost basis it will be going up. It has to break the top of the box in order for it to be a breakout in my opinion. we shall see tomorrow.
$MSFT - gap entry to $432. looking for gap fillMSFT - stock is in the earnings gap to $432.72. looking for strong reversal here. calls good to add as long as $420 holds. stock is decent on indicators.
Microsoft LONG Longing MSFT here targeting the gap fill to 430 took bottum liq creating a double bottom with increasing rsi causing the divergence. Will take profits going up but final target will be a complete gap fill to 431.
Idea is invalidated if the 4H closed below red line at 405.9 going for a 3R:R
MICROSOFT has bottomed. Dont miss this once/year buy opportunityMicrosoft (MSFT) has been trading within a Fibonacci Channel Up since the October 2022 market bottom following the Inflation Crisis. Since the August 05 2024 Low on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), the stock has struggled to get detached from it and stage a sustainable rally.
This prolonged volatility can be seen however on both previous Lows of the Channel Up, while the price was attempting to price a bottom. Technically it is around the same levels as February - March 2023 (again below the 1W MA50).
As you can see, this kind of buy opportunity emerges roughly once a year on MSFT and posts a rise or roughly +50% from the bottom, with the last Higher High priced on the 1.5 Fibonacci extension.
As a result, our long-term Target is now set at $550.
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IS THIS MAG7 DARLING ABOUT TO CRASH?!NASDAQ:MSFT
🔥 IS NASDAQ:MSFT ABOUT TO FALL OVER 21%?! 🔥
Let's not panic yet, but Microsoft's weekly charts are flashing some intriguing signals. Here’s the lowdown:
As long as NASDAQ:MSFT stays within its symmetrical pattern, we’re in the clear. But if it breaks downward, we’re looking at a potential 6% drop from the Volume profile shelf and possibly a dangerous 22% plunge, breaking the 2024 Head & Shoulders pattern. Enter the "Low Five Setup"—the bearish counterpart to my "High Five Setup."
Key factors to watch:
- Williams %R: Lower High
- MACD: Dangerously close to crossing below the zero line (BEARISH)
- RSI: Below RSI MA with lower highs, at 46—lots of room before oversold
- Trend: Lower high, red through yellow downward move indicating a downtrend on the weekly chart
Microsoft has been Wall Street’s golden goose, untouched by the FUD that hit the MAG7 stocks. Apple had China FUD, Tesla faced the ELON BAD FUD, Google with AI SEARCH FUD, Amazon with spending and margins FUD, Meta with metaverse spending FUD, and Nvidia with growth concerns FUD.
But as Willy Wonka taught us, every golden goose lays a bad egg sometimes. This is a weekly chart setup, so it will take time to play out. No one's immune to Wall Street’s FUD wrath, not even Microsoft. We shall see what happens...
P.S. I’m not in this name yet—just putting it on your radar. We’re early to the party, just like I always am with my setups. If you’re still here, you value solid, well-thought-out market analysis. Props to you!
Have a great Sunday, friends! 👊
Not Financial Advice #HighFiveSetup #LowFiveSetup
Weekly Implied Volatility Move Is 437.50 From the options chain on 10-11 exp. Its telling me prices wants 437.50 by end of week.
Pop to the 420 and a move lower is possible before the rally hits.
If my pink level breaks, were so screwed lmao
Microsoft’s Big Moves This Quarter | From Activision to AI AgentMicrosoft’s Revenue Surge: The Power of AI, Gaming, and Strategic Investments
Microsoft has released its Q1 FY25 earnings for the quarter ending in September
The stock saw a 6% drop, indicating the results fell short of investors' high hopes. Trading at over 30 times projected earnings for next year, expectations for Microsoft were significant.
CEO Satya Nadella stated
“Our AI business is set to exceed an annual revenue run rate of $10 billion next quarter, making it the fastest business in our history to reach this milestone.”
This means that AI will soon account for about 4% of Microsoft's total revenue in under three years a remarkable feat for a global giant.
If you need a quick summary, here are three main points:
1. ☁️ Azure’s growth is slowing. As Microsoft’s key player in the AI competition, Azure grew 34%, down slightly from 35% in the prior quarter (after adjustments). This comes as Google Cloud raised the bar, with its growth accelerating from 29% to 35% during the same period.
2. 🤖 AI growth is limited by hardware supply, as capacity struggles to meet demand. Data center expansion is a long-term process, and Microsoft is investing heavily in infrastructure, aiming for a growth boost by 2025.
3. 👨👩👧👦 Consumer-focused products like Gaming and Devices are underperforming. Although not essential to Microsoft's core business, their poor performance has impacted overall results.
Here’s a breakdown of the insights from the quarter.
Overview of today’s insights:
- New segmentation.
- Microsoft’s Q1 FY25 overview.
- Key earnings call highlights.
- Future areas to monitor.
1. New Segmentation
Revised Business Segments
In August, Microsoft announced a reorganization of its business segments, effective this quarter. The purpose? To better align financial reporting with the current business structure and strategic management.
Summary of the main changes
- Microsoft 365 Commercial revenue consolidation: All M365 commercial revenue, including mobility and security services, now falls under the Productivity and Business Processes segment.
-Copilot Pro revenue shift: Revenue from the Copilot Pro tool was moved from Productivity and Business Processes to the More Personal Computing segment under Search and news advertising.
-Nuance Enterprise reallocation: Revenue from Nuance, previously part of Intelligent Cloud, is now included in Productivity and Business Processes.
-Windows and Devices reporting combination: Microsoft now reports Windows and Devices revenue together.
Impact of These Changes:
Core Segments Overview:
In summary:
- The Productivity and Business Processes segment has grown significantly.
- The Intelligent Cloud segment has decreased due to the reallocation of Nuance and other revenue.
Products and Services Overview:
- M365 Commercial now includes Nuance, shifted from the Server products category, along with integrated mobility and security services.
- Windows & Devices have been merged into a single, slower-growth category.
Additional Insights:
- Azure, Microsoft's cloud platform, is reported within 'Server products and cloud services.' Although its growth rate is shared by management, exact revenue figures remain undisclosed.
Azure’s past growth figures have been adjusted for consistency, with the last quarter’s constant currency growth recast from 30% to 35%, setting a higher benchmark. Tracking these metrics is challenging due to limited revenue disclosure, but this recast indicates Azure's raised growth expectations.
2. Microsoft’s Q1 FY25 Performance
Financial Summary:
-Revenue: Up 16% year-over-year, reaching $65.6 billion (exceeding estimates by $1 billion). Post-Activision Blizzard acquisition in October 2023, the growth was 13% excluding the merger.
New Product and Services Segmentation Results
- Server products & cloud services: $22.2 billion (+23% Y/Y).
- M365 Commercial: $20.4 billion (+13% Y/Y).
- Gaming: $5.6 billion (+43% Y/Y), influenced by Activision.
- Windows & Devices: $4.3 billion (flat Y/Y).
- LinkedIn: $4.3 billion (+10% Y/Y).
- Search & news advertising: $3.2 billion (+7% Y/Y).
- Enterprise & partner services: $1.9 billion (flat Y/Y).
- Dynamics: $1.8 billion (+14% Y/Y).
- M365 Consumer products: $1.7 billion (+5% Y/Y).
Core Business Segments Breakdown:
- Productivity and Business Processes: Increased 12% Y/Y to $28.3 billion, supported by M365 Commercial, especially Copilot adoption.
- Intelligent Cloud: Grew 20% Y/Y to $24.1 billion, with Azure AI driving growth.
- More Personal Computing: Grew 17% Y/Y to $13.2 billion, including a 15-point boost from Activision. Devices fell, but search and ad performance improved under new segmentation.
Key Observations:
- Microsoft Cloud revenue climbed 22% Y/Y to $39 billion, making up 59% of total revenue (+3 percentage points Y/Y).
- Azure continues to drive cloud services and server products' growth.
- Xbox growth has surged due to the Activision acquisition since Q2 FY24, expected to stabilize by Q2 FY25.
- Windows OEM and devices combined, showing a 2% decline in Q1 FY25.
- Office rebranded to Microsoft 365; updated naming will be used starting next quarter.
- Margins: Gross margin at 69% (down 2pp Y/Y, 1pp Q/Q); operating margin at 47% (down 1pp Y/Y, up 4pp Q/Q).
- EPS: Increased 10% to $3.30, beating by $0.19.
Cash Flow and Balance Sheet:
- Operating cash flow: $34 billion (52% margin, down 2pp Y/Y).
- Cash**: $78 billion; Long-term debt**: $43 billion.
Q2 FY25 Outlook:
- Productivity and Business Processes: Anticipated 10%-11% Y/Y growth, steady due to M365, Copilot inclusion, and expected LinkedIn growth of ~10%. Dynamics set to grow mid-to-high teens.
- Intelligent Cloud: Projected 18%-20% Y/Y growth, slightly slowing, with Azure growth expected between 28%-29%.
- More Personal Computing: Forecasted ~$14 billion revenue, declines in Windows, Devices, and Gaming anticipated, with some offset from Copilot Pro.
Main Takeaways:
- Azure's growth slowed to 34% Y/Y in constant currency, with AI services contributing 12pp, up from 11pp last quarter. This marks a dip from the recast 35% prior and included an accounting boost.
- Capacity limitations in AI persist; more infrastructure investments are planned, with reacceleration expected in H2 FY25.
- Commercial performance obligations grew 21% to $259 billion, up from 20% in Q4.
- Margins were pressured by AI infrastructure investments; Activision reduced the operating margin by 2 points.
- Capital expenditures increased by 50% to $15 billion, half dedicated to infrastructure, with further Capex growth expected.
- Shareholder returns included $9.0 billion through buybacks and dividends, matching Q4 repurchases.
Earnings Call Highlights:
Azure AI saw a doubling of usage over six months, positioning it as a foundation for services like Cosmos DB and SQL DB. Microsoft Fabric adoption grew 14% sequentially, signaling rapid uptake.
AI Expansion: GitHub Copilot enterprise use surged 55% Q/Q, with AI-powered capabilities used by nearly 600,000 organizations, a 4x increase Y/Y.
M365 Copilot has achieved a 70% adoption rate among Fortune 500 companies and continues to grow rapidly.
LinkedIn saw accelerated growth in markets like India and Brazil and a 6x quarterly increase in video views, aligning with broader social media trends.
Search and Gaming: Bing’s revenue growth surpassed the market, while Game Pass hit a new revenue record, propelled by Black Ops 6
Capital Expenditures: CFO Amy Hood highlighted that half of cloud and AI investments are for long-term infrastructure, positioning the company for sustained growth.
4. Future Outlook
Energy Needs: Microsoft, facing higher power demands, plans to revive a reactor at Three Mile Island with Constellation Energy by 2028 to power its AI data centers sustainably.
Autonomous AI Agents: Coming in November, these agents will perform tasks with minimal human input, enhancing efficiency. Copilot Studio will allow businesses to customize these agents, with 10 pre-built options to start.
Industry Impact: Salesforce has launched Agentforce, signaling increased competition. CEO Mark Benioff recently compared Microsoft’s Copilot to the nostalgic Clippy, stoking rivalry.
For further analysis stay tuned
Copilot to elevate MSFT, or will attached price tag be a drag?NASDAQ:MSFT took a hit following the release of the earnings report this week and is now trading just off the bottom of a channel it has been in since August. Price has been in a kind of consolidation mode on the lower time frames since the release. On the daily chart, we see that red days have relatively high-volume spikes, the MACD has turned negative, and RSI is nearing oversold levels. The fact that price has not continued to drop following the initial post-earnings drop, indicates it might stabilize at this level. My hunch is that it will consolidate and maybe approach the lower band of the channel, and then start climbing. There is some pressure on tech stocks at the moment, and there is an election next week, so might be a bit of rough sailing ahead. My gut tells me MSFT will bounce back, and I am long. As for target I would set my eyes on the upper band of the channel and consider a breach to the downside of the channel as a red flag.
To quote ChatGPT:
To provide a well-rounded summary of Microsoft's latest earnings report, I would highlight:
1. Revenue Growth : Microsoft reported notable revenue increases, driven by its cloud and AI segments.
2. Azure's Performance : Strong growth in Azure and AI services reinforces Microsoft's competitiveness in the cloud space, a vital area given current industry trends.
3. AI Investment : Increased spending on AI research and development reflects the company’s focus on leveraging AI as a growth driver.
These elements can positively impact Microsoft’s outlook, appealing to investors prioritizing innovation and digital transformation.
MSFT Channel BreakPretty significant channel break here on MSFT. This is the uptrend from January and it may be coming to an end if it can't recover soon. We also have a shorter term uptrend/bear flag on the 15m that has been broken to the downside as well.
Doesn't look good IMO, first downside target is around $390 - $385.
MICROSOFT SELL SETUPI have a Weekly uptrend with a BOS. Im looking for a weekly retest for a continuation, so Im waiting for a choch on the Daily tf to start the retracement for the weekly retest
Microsoft Corp.Hello,
Daily chart of Microsoft stock, with regression line and volumes.
The price has just broken out of the channel.
Make your opinion, before placing an order.
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Retest of the $200 level on the table.The bull market of generations is ending. The never ending buying of the the top 10 stocks for every fund, pension, and mutual fund has seen its best days and now the a new generation who grows up in a bear market will come of age. When it is all said and done, MSFT will be back near $50. Of course, most will not comprehend what is coming, but history proves humans have never been capable of seeming the train coming.
$MSFT 1W Bear ABCD Ext harmonic, expecting 50% + drop in priceABCD Ext harmonic pattern is active on MSFT 1W chart. Expect price to form an hns taking sharply lower--50%+ from current levels. See also recent idea on bearish patterns on ES1/NQ1/YM1. HNS will drive to point B, and there is a smaller ABCD bear harmonic that will drive the price to C point of the higher tf ABCD Ext pattern.
Post reaction idea We have
MSFT call above $421.70 taking $420/$430 11/1 or take $440 11/8
We have first target 🎯 at $424.60
Second target 🎯 $428.60
Last target 🎯 for this week contracts $433.60
Next week target is $445
Puts below $415.10 take $410 11/1
First target 🎯 is $413.35
Microsoft (MSFT) Shares Decline Despite Strong Earnings ReportMicrosoft (MSFT) Shares Decline Despite Strong Earnings Report
On 9 October, our analysis of Microsoft (MSFT) suggested that the stock price:
→ Was forming an ascending channel (shown in blue on the chart);
→ Could see a rebound from its lower boundary (indicated by an arrow).
Since then, the price indeed moved upward from this support around the $411 level, even surpassing $437. However, following Microsoft’s Q3 earnings report released post-market yesterday, the share price faced heightened volatility.
In the Q3 report:
→ Earnings per share (EPS) came in at $3.30, exceeding the expected $3.10;
→ Gross revenue was $65.58 billion, also above the forecasted $64.57 billion.
Despite these positive figures, MSFT shares saw a decline due to high volatility during after-hours trading, reaching $444 at one point and then falling to around $410. This drop may be due to Microsoft’s rising expenses. As reported by The Wall Street Journal, Microsoft’s capital expenditures in 2024 have hit $53 billion (about 28% of revenue), a substantial increase from the 12% average of revenue allocated to capital costs between 2014 and 2023.
As of pre-market trading today, MSFT is trading around $417 (approximately -4% from yesterday’s close), likely setting the opening level for today’s main session.
Today’s technical analysis of MSFT suggests that the opening may see a bearish gap, potentially pushing MSFT’s price toward the lower boundary of the ascending blue channel, where a new consensus between buyers and sellers could emerge. This sets up two scenarios:
→ Bulls may see an opportunity for another rebound;
→ Bears could aim for a breakdown of this key support level, with potential testing of the psychological $400 level.
Analyst sentiment remains positive. According to TipRanks surveys:
→ 27 out of 30 analysts recommend buying MSFT shares;
→ The average 12-month target price for MSFT is $503.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
MSFT eyes on $ 438.79: Golden Covid fib barrier into EarningsMSFT down quite a bit from its record highs.
Testing a Golden Covid fib before earnings.
Rejection here could mark a significant high.
$ 438.79 is a Golden Covid (pretty big deal)
$ 452.09 above, 419.17 below are Genesis fibs
$ 427.38 below is a local fib for minor support.
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Microsoft (MSFT): Can Earnings Sustain the Trend Channel?With Microsoft set to report earnings, investors are keenly watching updates on AI-related spending, especially growth within Azure and Copilot, as well as broader financials. A significant focus will be on capital expenditures (Capex) for generative AI initiatives, expected to rise from $9.92 billion a year ago to an estimated $14.74 billion in this recent quarter. Beyond revenue and earnings, the market is waiting to see how these hefty investments are shaping the company’s growth trajectory.
Technically, NASDAQ:MSFT continues to test the lower bound of its trend channel—a level that may weaken with repeated retests. The stock’s reaction to earnings will reveal if this support can hold. The formation suggests a potential head and shoulders pattern, particularly if NASDAQ:MSFT dips below the neckline support at $388 with declining volume.
For now, we’re maintaining our cautious outlook. If Microsoft fails to hold its key support levels, it may confirm the bearish trend we’ve been observing. As always, we’ll provide updates if any significant developments occur after the earnings report.
