MSFT Macro outlook if there is a relief rally here. Will post alternate projections possibilities in comments.
MSFT trade ideas
Trading Idea 007: MicrosoftMarket Conditions:
- bearish trend
- correction movement
- bullish sentiment in the market
Key Level and Lines:
- $241.51 resistance
Trading Ideas:
- go long after a consolidation around the resistance
- a false breakout and bearish sentiment in the market = trade opportunity for shorting.
Symmetrical TriangleNeutral until broken. Targets are not valid until the trendline is broken with a trend in that direction.
Price is bound by two trendlines that narrow at the apex. The 2 lines slope in opposite directions which differentiates a triangle from a wedge pattern.
Bearish Harami yesterday followed by a red down candle which is the Harami confirmation candle. The 3 candle pattern is called 3 inside down.
If yesterday's candle were a bearish Engulfing candle and today's candle was a red down candle, it would be called 3 outside down.
No recommendation.
Targets in orange type are definitely guesstimated but probably close as I do not where the support line will break at this time. I calculate targets from the point of the break of the triangle trendline. I guessed close to the white question mark, but it could sail straight down or go back up for all I know. I am guessing price is on it's way down with possible chop. It is easier to guesstimate targets for a descending tiangle to the downside or an ascending triangle to the upside because the line is straight.
Nostalgia is truly one of the greatest human weaknesses, second only to the neck.
MSFT, longNASDAQ:MSFT
n break out, can fill the upper box
R2 265
R1 248
S1 236
S2 225
will face some resistance at 247-254
#idea
can buy calls of 250 on dips
MSFT close gap at 225First target 231 - might dead cat here if it's to oversold
Final target is 225
Not advice for you EXP choice but they should close this gap by 2/3
Stop loss 237
Microsoft at a crossroads ahead of earningsShares in Microsoft Corp (symbol ‘MSFT’) have moved up over the last week in line with many other blue chips. American inflation went down as expected in December and the consensus for a single hike by the Fed early next month remains strong. The main event for this share in the near future is its earnings report for the fourth quarter of 2022 on Tuesday 24 January after hours.
The consensus earnings per share is $2.29. The 16 estimates are in a narrow range between $2.25 and $2.33 with only one having been revised up in the last four weeks.
‘Microsoft is one of the better placed tech companies to withstand the likely upcoming economic downturn around the world,’ said Michael Stark, an analyst at Exness. ‘That’s due to its generally strong cashflow as well as its sheer size. A big plus in the current environment of “cash is king” is that MSFT as an asset pays a dividend, and the latest ratio of price to earnings of about 26 makes it around fair value compared to the Nasdaq as a whole by this measure.
The situation on the chart is quite ambiguous, with the price having moved up consistently since 6 January but now reaching the 50 SMA and just below the 100 SMA. Although there’s no sign of overbought yet, it would usually be difficult for a share to break through a significant dynamic resistance in the runup to earnings. A clear breakout above the value area between those two moving averages would probably require a very strong earnings report or a significant improvement in general sentiment, possibly both.
open ai is a nice fun toolpeople have used it to cheat on university exams. people with no coding experience have used it to develop software. people use it to penetration test vulnerabilities in networks. its all cloud based supercomputing. does this mean openai is going to change the world? no. does it mean microsofts cloud computing business is saved? no. does that mean its a good investment? yes. obviously bulls got power bomb suplexed back into the dirt at the end there, but its as if they dont care. as long as were buying the rumor, selling the news, im going to assume theres more rumors, and more news. aquisitions and debt to assets peaked after trumps election, and were rubbing up against corona bottom anchored vwap, and top of regression. if these metrics continue bull, im long, and if we resist and move lower im bear.
Microsoft (MSFT) Q2 2023 EarningsMicrosoft (MSFT) reported the second fiscal quarter 2023 financial results after the market close. EPS beat the low estimates but revenue came below expectations, Azure cloud unit showed strong growth. Here are the key points:
Earnings per share came at $2.32 a decline from $2.48 a share a year ago but topping the expectations of $2.27.
Revenue for the quarter came at $52.7 billion below the expectations of $52.94 billion. Revenue growth is 2% (YoY) which is the slowest pace since 2016.
The Intelligent cloud revenue reported at $21.51 billion below the estimates of $21.43 billion.
Server products and cloud services revenue increased 20% driven by Azure and other cloud services revenue growth of 31%.
Azure grew 38% (YoY) topping the consensus of 37%. Here are the last quarters Azure growth:
Q3 ’21: 48%
Q4 ’21: 46%
Q1 ’22: 49%
Q2 ’22: 46%
Q3 ’22: 42%
Q4 ’22: 38%
Revenue in Productivity and Business Processes was $17.0 billion.
Revenue in More Personal Computing was $14.2 billion and decreased 19%.
Operating income was $20.4 billion GAAP and $21.6 billion non-GAAP
Diluted earnings per share were $2.20 GAAP and $2.32 non-GAAP
Here is Microsoft’s $MSFT December Quarter Revenue since 2006
2006: $12.5B
2007: $16.4B
2008: $16.6B
2009: $19B
2010: $20B
2011: $20.9B
2012: $21.5B
2013: $24.5B
2014: $26.5B
2015: $23.8B
2016: $25.8B
2017: $28.9B
2018: $32.5B
2019: $36.9B
2020: $43.1B
2021: $51.7B
2022: $52.7B
Microsoft Analyst’s Expectations and latest Price Target
Analysts expected Microsoft to report earnings per share of $2.27 and revenue of $52.94. Revenue growth for the Azzure segment is expected to grow by 37%.
On January 20, Mizuho reiterated Microsoft at Buy and reduced the price target from $305 to $290. Guggenheim on January 17, downgraded MSFT from Neutral to Sell and set a price target of $212.
MICROSOFT - EARNINGSMSFT is trading under key resistance as seen by the white trendline. The price action and trend still favors downside bias however there is a key gap fill around $257 that would be a perfect short level if it popped off of earnings.
Based off of the rally in the indexes, MSFT has been a lagger in tech which could be displaying relative weakness.
$MSFT Earnings later/w a wedge break and candle confirm on day $MSFT Trade Idea
Earnings tonight with a wedge break and candle confirmation on the daily.
Calls over $245.3
Target: $249.85
Puts under $239.55
Target $233.9(gap fill).
NASDAQ:MSFT
SharkBullish M pattern.
The final or 4th leg terminated at the .886.
Peak 2 is higher than peak 1.
Adds up to a Shark but be careful about staying too long.
There is a bearish rising wedge close to 200.
No recommendation.
This would be labeled OXABC with 0 being at the start of leg 1 or also called the impulse wave/Hammer at C which is the end of the 4th leg.
Seems things are so much easier to see when it is over (o:
Microsoft Pre-Quarter AnalysisFor the short analysis, Microsoft's revenue shows potential weakness in the next quarterly announcement. As the global economy continues to weaken, high inflation continues to create hardships for companies and individuals. Investors are looking for good stability, in financials and to create a positive outlook for the next quarter's revenue. Investors will look forward to hearing the progress of the acquisition of Activision Blizzard .
In my opinion, I think that Microsoft's next quarter's revenue will be under what Wall Street expects. Their next quarter's outlook will be negative, causing the stock to drop over 6% within the next week. Before the quarter announcement on Tuesday at 4:30 Central time, there will be a before announcement pump, causing the stock to rise another 2%. Afterward, the stock will drop under $210 and will stay low for several weeks. For retail investors, keep an eye out for support lines before investing in Microsoft .
Microsoft Pre-Quarter Analysis For the short analysis, Microsoft's revenue shows potential weakness in the next quarterly announcement. As the global economy continues to weaken, high inflation continues to create hardships for companies and individuals. Investors are looking for good stability, in financials and to create a positive outlook for the next quarter's revenue. Investors will look forward to hearing the progress of the acquisition of Activision Blizzard.
In my opinion, I think that Microsoft's next quarter's revenue will be under what Wall Street expects. Their next quarter's outlook will be negative, causing the stock to drop over 6% within the next week. Before the quarter announcement on Tuesday at 4:30 Central time, there will be a before announcement pump, causing the stock to rise another 2%. Afterward, the stock will drop under $210 and will stay low for several weeks. For retail investors, keep an eye out for support lines before investing in Microsoft.
Bullish Days For MSFTIn daily timeframe microsoft stock can move upward to $245.
after retracement first target will be $250~$254.
if the price can break weekly orderblock, $267 target will be open for this stock...
