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Inflation's Impact on Stock ReturnsInflation's Impact on Stock Returns Inflation's pervasive influence on the financial landscape cannot be understated. It affects everything from everyday spending to large-scale investing. This FXOpen article dives into the intricate relationship between inflation and stock returns, unravelling the multifaceted dynamics at play. Join us as we dissect the mechanics of the impact of inflation on the stock market, offering clarity in a world of economic ebbs and flows. Understanding Inflation Inflation represents the rising prices of goods and services over time. While a moderate level of inflation is often viewed as a sign of a growing economy, high inflation can erode purchasing power, making everyday items more expensive for consumers. Those trading and investing during high inflation face challenges as it can diminish the real returns on investments. Stock Returns Defined Stock returns denote the gains or losses an investor realises from stock investments. These returns typically manifest in two ways: dividends and capital appreciation. Dividends are regular payments made by corporations to shareholders from their profits. Capital appreciation, on the other hand, refers to the increase in a stock's price over time. It's important to note that stock returns can also be negative if a stock's price decreases. Influencing these returns are a myriad of factors, including company performance, market sentiment, and broader economic conditions. Mechanisms: How Inflation Affects Stock Prices Inflation, with its overarching grip on the economy, wields a substantial influence on stock prices. Understanding this dynamic is vital for traders looking to navigate the stock market during inflation. Below, we'll delve into the various mechanisms through which inflation affects stocks. Cost of Goods Sold and Company Profitability When there's inflation, the costs of raw materials and production generally rise. This escalation can squeeze a company's profit margins unless they pass these increased costs onto the consumers. For some industries, hiking prices might result in decreased demand, further impacting profitability. Consequently, stock prices can see downward pressure as potential investors foresee lower earnings. Consumer Purchasing Power Inflation erodes the value of money, meaning consumers can buy less with the same amount of money as before. This diminished purchasing power can lead to reduced consumer spending. Companies, especially those in the retail and consumer goods sector, may witness a dip in revenue. As revenues play a crucial role in determining stock value, a decline can lead to lower stock prices. Central Bank Responses and Interest Rates Central banks often intervene to counteract high inflation, primarily by raising interest rates. When interest rates rise, borrowing becomes more expensive for companies, which can hinder expansion plans and reduce profitability. Additionally, when inflation and interest rates rise, alternative investments like bonds become more appealing than stocks, leading to reduced demand for stocks. By grasping these mechanisms, traders can better anticipate inflation's effect on stocks and devise strategies that account for the intricate relationship between inflation and the stock market. Inflation's Dual Impact: Sectors and Market Caps The impact of inflation isn't uniform across the board; it varies significantly between sectors and company sizes. Certain sectors, like commodities or energy, might benefit from rising prices, turning inflation into an advantage. Conversely, retail or consumer goods sectors might suffer as consumers' purchasing power diminishes, leading to decreased spending. When examining company sizes, the inflation rate and stock market dynamics reveal nuanced patterns. Large-cap companies, with their diversified operations and global reach, often have better tools to hedge against inflationary pressures. In contrast, small-cap stocks, which might be more regionally focused and have fewer resources, can be more vulnerable to the negative effects of high inflation. Historical Perspective: Inflation and Stock Market Performance Historical data provides traders with valuable insights into the dynamics between inflation and stock market performance. For instance, during the 1970s, the US experienced a period of stagflation—simultaneous high inflation and stagnant economic growth. This era saw the S&P 500 struggle to provide real returns, largely due to soaring oil prices and tight monetary policy. Another example can be traced to emerging markets like Argentina in the early 2000s. Faced with skyrocketing inflation rates, the stock market initially surged as locals shifted money into assets to retain value. However, long-term sustainability was challenged by economic instability and a lack of foreign investments. Mitigation: How Traders Can Prepare for Inflation Inflation can unsettle even the savviest traders, but with proper preparation, its challenges can be mitigated. When investing during inflation, diversifying assets becomes paramount. Spreading investments across different asset classes and instruments can act as a buffer against inflation's adverse effects. For instance, you can trade forex or commodity, cryptocurrency*, and ETF CFDs on FXOpen’s TickTrader platform and further equip yourselves with the real-time data and tools necessary to make effective decisions. Additionally, stocks of companies with strong pricing power, which can pass on increased costs to consumers, might fare better than others. Moreover, bonds, especially those with interest rates adjusting to inflation, can be among the best investments during inflation, offering a degree of protection to portfolios. The Bottom Line In understanding inflation's intricate relationship with stock returns, traders arm themselves with valuable insights. To navigate these economic complexities and optimise trading strategies, consider taking the next step: open an FXOpen account, a trusted broker that provides the tools and resources to thrive in ever-evolving financial markets. *At FXOpen UK and FXOpen AU, Cryptocurrency CFDs are only available for trading by those clients categorised as Professional clients under FCA Rules and Professional clients under ASIC Rules, respectively. They are not available for trading by Retail clients. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NASDAQ:MSFTEducation
by FXOpen
2
MSFT Microsoft Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven't entered MSFT when they bought a stake in OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT: Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of MSFT Microsoft Corporation prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 460usd strike price Calls with an expiration date of 2024-11-15, for a premium of approximately $13.05. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by TopgOptions
MSFT Paths Ahead of EarningsMSFT is set to report earnings next week as we kick off mega cap earnings season. MSFT just had a fakeout above it's major ascending channel from 2023. It has now fallen all the way back down to the bottom end and even closed below today. It can still bounce, but if not I'll be looking for a move down to $398-$400 at least. That may provide a bounce, but if this channel does break, I would fully expect it to reject if it came back for a retest in the future. This could be a great dip buy if it holds, but I'll be waiting for confirmation and would never recommend buying options before earnings. It's an important watch either way due to the impact it has on NQ and the rest of the market.
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by AdvancedPlays
Bullish Outlook for Microsoft Ahead of EarningsIn Microsoft, we see an open volume-imbalance gap at the top of the target range. The market tends to close these gaps sooner or later. In our experience, they are more reliable than “normal” gaps. In view of the technical chart situation and the stable fundamentals, we are bullish on Microsoft ahead of the earnings. Please note: The stop loss shown is merely an idea. Experience shows that market movements at earnings are very volatile. It may therefore make sense to wait until after the figures are published before taking a position.
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by Ochlokrat
How Did MSFT Stock Price React To Global Outage?How Did MSFT Stock Price React To Global Outage? On 19th July, a global outage occurred. Numerous computers running Windows worldwide experienced "blue screens of death" (BSOD), affecting companies in different sectors, including airlines, hospitals, media, banks, and others. The outage was caused by a CrowdStrike's Falcon Sensor update, a component of the Windows system that essentially works to protect computers from cyber threats. CrowdStrike quickly acknowledged the issue, stating that it was not a cyberattack but an update error, and suggested a solution. According to CNBC, the large-scale outage did not significantly impact the operation of most financial markets. Representatives of the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq stated on Friday that they were operating despite the issues with the CrowdStrike update. The only noticeable unpleasant consequence for most was the inability to calculate the Russell stock indices, including the popular Russell 2000. However, the confusion was resolved later on Friday. At the same time, the large-scale outage affected stock prices, including Microsoft. In pre-market trading on Friday, MSFT's price dropped below $430, but during the main session, the price managed to rise above it. As technical analysis of the MSFT chart shows, the $430 level is important – as it acted as resistance in March-May 2024. Therefore, its role as support might be justified by analysts. Additionally, the MSFT share price is near the lower boundary of the upward channel (shown in blue), which may provide additional support. However, no one can guarantee that the mentioned support levels will lead to a subsequent bullish impulse. On 19th July, we wrote about bearish signs on META stock charts. These are bearish aggression signs, which are concerning: → the price's inability to reach the upper boundary of the blue channel in early July; → a wide bearish gap when breaking through the median on 17th July. Wall Street analysts remain positive for now. According to TipRanks, the average forecast for MSFT is $504.12 (+15.33% from the current price) over the next 12 months. Microsoft's Q2 earnings report, scheduled for release on 30 July, has the potential to significantly alter the balance of sentiments. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NASDAQ:MSFT
by FXOpen
1
Top 7 Books to Learn Advanced Technical Analysis for StocksTop 7 Books to Learn Advanced Technical Analysis for Stocks Mastery of advanced technical analysis is one of the factors that separates casual traders from experienced ones. Financial markets are not simple, so it’s important to understand the subtleties of price movements and chart patterns. This FXOpen article is best suited for experienced traders who already have basic trading knowledge but are looking to delve into advanced technical analysis. We’ve compiled a list of the 7 best books to learn stock trading that explain its complexities and offer invaluable insights and strategies to potentially enhance your trading. What Are the Best Books to Learn Stock Trading? Typically, sketchy knowledge from blogs or YouTube videos won’t be enough to allow someone to understand and improve technical analysis. Then, people turn to reading, trying to find the best books to learn the stock market that are available. The best stock market books are characterised by their practicality, expertise, and ability to provide valuable insights for investors and traders. They often cover a range of topics and are authored by experienced professionals in the field. Below, you’ll see a list of 7 books and their descriptions. 1. The Art and Science of Technical Analysis: Market Structure, Price Action, and Trading Strategies Author: Adam H. Grimes This book is a pioneering work that connects an academic view of markets, technical analysis, and effective trading. It explores why randomness dominates markets most of the time but not always. The author focuses on how technical analysis can be used to identify statistically validated patterns in certain market conditions. In reviews of the work, readers state that the book demolishes TA misconceptions and provides insight into the psychology of market players. The book is supported by extensive research and helps readers recognise technical patterns. 2. The Definitive Guide to Point and Figure Author: Jeremy Du Plessis One of the top books on stock trading is the work of Jeremy Du Plessis. This book is dedicated to technical analysis and Point and Figure charting. It includes a detailed explanation of the history and development of the technique from its invention to the present day and covers the construction of graphic patterns, the reasons for their creation, and ways of interpreting them. According to reviewers, the book provides knowledge that gives you an edge. After reading it, you will no longer look at price targets and risk-reward ratios like you used to. 3. Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior Authors: Robert R. Prechter Jr., A.J. Frost, Charles J. Collins This book is a worthy reference for technical traders. It gives a good understanding of the Elliott wave principle, a form of technical analysis that traders use to analyse financial market cycles and trends. It’s not for amateurs, but experienced traders love it. The book is rather specialised as it contains material on one narrow topic, so it’s not a complete guidebook to mastering trading. Nevertheless, it’s very informative and concentrated. Reviewers note that the book teaches readers how to apply Elliott wave theory not only on stocks but also on commodities and forex markets. 4. Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns Author: Thomas N. Bulkowski This book is dedicated to trading on news and significant events, including quarterly earnings announcements, retail sales, and stock upgrades and downgrades. It offers empirical data illustrating the effectiveness and ineffectiveness of the patterns. The Bulkowski Encyclopedia has been a bestseller for a long time, and now the author has released an updated, improved version and added many new patterns and strategies, as well as updated market statistics. Everything you will read in the theoretical part is backed up with figures and calculations and validated. 5. Technical Analysis Using Multiple Timeframes Author: Brian Shannon This is one of the books for the stock market dedicated to many aspects of trading at once. You will learn how you may enter established trends with low risk, recognise and take advantage of cyclical capital movements in all markets, evaluate the potential of a trade using technical analysis, and much more. Reviewers mention that it provides powerful insights into how to use different timeframes to determine trends, confirm signals, and manage risk. The book is not complicated, but it is suitable for experienced traders, as it collects and systematises a huge block of information about the market. 6. Beyond Candlesticks: New Japanese Charting Techniques Revealed Author: Steve Nison This book provides a detailed analysis of Japanese candlestick charting techniques and how to use them in technical analysis. It discusses how to use candlestick patterns to identify trends, confirm signals, and manage risk. Readers value its step-by-step instructions, detailed charts and graphs, and clear guidance on tracking results. Moreover, the book helps readers understand the psychology of traders in the stock market and the logic behind their decisions. 7. Effective Trading In Financial Markets Using Technical Analysis Authors: Ashish Kyal, Smita Roy Trivedi Along with other books in this list, the work of Ashish Kyal and Smita Roy Trivedi explains how to use technical analysis in financial markets. It covers technical analysis tools, backtesting, and algorithmic trading in detail. It teaches readers how to use technical indicators and chart patterns, confirm signals, and manage risk. Readers say that it’s written in simple language, and there are multiple examples, case studies, comparisons, and figures for different assets and markets. Unlike many classic trading books, this work focuses a lot on the Indian market. It will be useful to those who are interested in that region. Final Thoughts It’s not an easy task to list the best books for trading in the stock market. If everything is clear in terms of materials for those who are just entering the world of trading, advanced books are harder to choose. Experts say that if you already have background knowledge, you can select books that either combine and systematise information about trading or deal with one specific area in detail. The more you read, the more experience and skills you will gain. And if you want to put your knowledge into practice, you can open an FXOpen account. Log in to the TickTrader trading platform to see real-time asset charts and try out your strategies. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NASDAQ:MSFTEducation
by FXOpen
3
MSFT: A Potential Buy Amid Market Volatility.Given the current technical indicators and market conditions, here is a speculative trading strategy for MSFT: Long Position: Entry Point: Consider entering a long position if the price approaches the strong support level around $418.53. Price Target: Aim for the resistance level at $455.40 initially, with a potential to reach $492.85 in the medium term. Stop Loss: Place a stop loss at $410 to mitigate potential losses. Short Position: Entry Point: If the stock breaks below the $418.53 support level, consider a short position. Price Target: Target the next support level at $390.10. Stop Loss: Set a stop loss at $430 to limit potential losses. Examining the candlestick patterns, MSFT has displayed a series of red candles with significant upper wicks, suggesting persistent selling pressure. The price action reflects a bearish sentiment in the short term, but the long-term trend remains bullish, supported by the company’s robust fundamentals and continuous growth in its cloud computing division, Azure.
NASDAQ:MSFT
by AxiomEx
MSFT support 438.8 .382/50% =wave 4 5th ahead 473/488The chart posted is that of MSFT we have now dropped .066 % and this is equal to the last wave drop making waves 2 and 4 equal .And the drop is .50 % of the rally from 404.5 to the peak 469.25 and we are also at .382 of the rally from 388 low april , if we break here I would look for the decline to drop to 431.5/428.8 before we turnup and see the last up phase in the Bull market targets are from 473 to 488 I lead towards 481
NASDAQ:MSFT
by wavetimer
End of Microsoft Bull Run ReachedFrom Left to Right: 1. Horizontal Resistance off of Doji High. 2. Price falls to 200 EMA. 3. Trend-Based Fib Extension is drawn from Bullish Engulfing Pattern Low at 200 EMA to Doji High (confirming previous Doji resistance), and finally down to Bullish Engulfing Pattern. 4. Price broke out of the $340 horizontal resistance and hit Yearly Fibonacci Pivots targets R1 & R2. 5. Trend-Based Fib Extension targets 0.786 & 0.886 reached. 6. Monthly Fib Pivots targets R1 & R2 reached. 7. TD Sequential 9 Sell Signal.
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by zerocashcool
2