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MSTR trade ideas

$MSTR Trade Setup – SMC Intraday Structure🕒 Timeframe: 15-Min 📈 Direction: Long 📊 Bias: Intraday Bullish Continuation 🔍 Technical Context ChoCH to BOS Sequence: Clean change of character followed by two bullish BOS (Break of Structure) signals. Liquidity Sweep & Reclaim: Price swept the EQH zone and reclaimed above minor liquidity; signaling intent to push above $397–$398 (weak high). Premium Zone: Currently tapping into a premium supply area (~$395–$397). A clean breakout could target $406.95 (external range objective). Demand Zones: Two clear high-volume demand blocks at $383.40–$385.00 and $377.50–$380.00, showing institutional interest. 📌 Trade Plan Element Value 🟢 Entry $392.50–$393.50 (upon BOS retest or bullish engulf above premium zone) 🔴 Stop Loss Below $383.00 (beneath OB and EQ zone) 🟡 Target 1 $397.50 (weak high) 🟡 Target 2 $406.95 (HTF resistance + Fib 1.0) ⚠️ Invalidation Close below $383.00 with strong volume 🧠 Macro Context NASDAQ:MSTR remains highly sensitive to Bitcoin fluctuations. As of today, BTC is holding steady above $60K. With a dovish Fed and rising crypto ETF inflows, sentiment favors risk-on tech and crypto-linked equities. The recent uptick in NASDAQ:MSTR volume during demand tests suggests ongoing accumulation by informed participants. ✅ Sentiment Score: 83 / 100 High-probability SMC setup with strong technical alignment and supportive macro backdrop. For educational purposes only. Posted by WaverVanir_International_LLC (APA7: TradingView, 2025)
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
2
Is MSTR overvalued?Pros of Investing in MSTR Massive Bitcoin Reserves -Owns ~582,000 BTC (~2–3% of total supply), making it a levered proxy to Bitcoin. Any BTC rally strongly benefits MSTR. Aggressive Treasury Strategy -The company continuously issues equity, preferreds, and convertible bonds to buy more Bitcoin. This "flywheel" can compound Bitcoin exposure rapidly. Strong Momentum & Index Inclusion -Added to Nasdaq‑100, which boosts trading volumes and visibility. Momentum is supported by Bitcoin's surge. High Analyst Targets -Some bullish forecasts set ambitious targets—median around ~$550, with upside to $1,000+ if Bitcoin soars. Cons & Risks Extreme Volatility Tied to Bitcoin -MSTR isn’t a business stock—it’s highly leveraged to Bitcoin’s price moves, showing wild price swings. Leverage & Debt Repayment Risk -Reliance on convertible bonds and preferred stock introduces liquidity risk if BTC price falls, potentially triggering a “death spiral”. Accounting & Tax Exposure -New FASB rules may force MSTR to pay corporate alternative minimum tax on unrealized gains, potentially running into billions by 2026. Minimal Software Business -MSTR’s original BI software arm is now overshadowed by Bitcoin holdings. The market values it mainly as a crypto vehicle—not a tech company. High Valuation Premium -Market cap is ~2× its BTC holdings, a steep premium relying on perpetual BTC appreciation and investor sentiment. -Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Stock prices, valuations, and performance metrics are subject to change and may be outdated. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. The information presented may contain inaccuracies and should not be solely relied upon for financial decisions. I am not personally liable for your own losses, this is not financial advise.
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by bossout10
3
Time to make a move. Microstrategy upside forecast could be 80%Let's perform a technical analysis of MicroStrategy (MSTR) stock, focusing on Time-based Fibonacci analysis, the potential for a Cup and Handle pattern with a 50% upside target, and briefly touching on Williams Alligator strength. As of Friday, June 27, 2025, at 9:36:57 PM PDT, here's an analysis of MSTR: **Current Price & Performance:** * **Last Price:** $383.88 (as of 4:00 PM ET on June 27, 2025) * **Today's Change:** Down $2.75 (-0.71%) * **After-hours price:** $384.45 (up 0.14% as of 7:59 PM ET on June 27, 2025) * **Previous Close:** $386.63 * **Today's Range:** $383.41 - $397.99 * **52-Week Range:** $102.40 - $543.00 (Note: MSTR reached its all-time high on Nov 20, 2024, at $543.00) --- ### **Time-Based Fibonacci Analysis** Time-based Fibonacci analysis (also known as Fibonacci Time Zones or Time Extensions) aims to predict future points in time where significant price reversals or changes in trend *might* occur. Unlike price-based Fibonacci retracements/extensions, which focus on price levels, time-based Fibs are vertical lines drawn on the chart at specific intervals (Fibonacci numbers like 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, etc.) from a significant swing high or low. **How to apply (Conceptually):** 1. **Identify Key Swing Points:** You would select two significant swing points (e.g., a major low and a subsequent high, or vice versa) on the daily chart. 2. **Draw the Zones:** The charting software then draws vertical lines at time intervals corresponding to Fibonacci numbers from that starting point. **Interpretation for MSTR (Conceptual):** Given MSTR's highly volatile nature and strong correlation to Bitcoin, applying time-based Fibonacci is more speculative than price-based methods. However, if we were to apply it: * **Starting Point:** A logical starting point could be a significant low where a new uptrend began (e.g., the 52-week low of $102.40 from July 2024). Another key point could be a major turning point, like the all-time high of $543.00 in November 2024. * **Potential Relevance:** The vertical lines at Fibonacci intervals after these points *could* indicate periods where MSTR's momentum might shift, or a new leg of a trend might begin/end. * **Current State:** Without knowing the exact start points used, it's hard to pinpoint specific upcoming time targets. However, if MSTR is currently in a consolidation phase (as suggested by the Cup and Handle discussion), a time-based Fibonacci analysis might highlight a potential *date range* when this consolidation could end, and a new trending move might initiate. It's often said that "something" is likely to happen "at" or "near" these time points, whether a reversal, acceleration, or consolidation. **Important Note on Time-Based Fibs:** They are often considered more subjective and less precise than price-based Fibonaccis. They are best used as a confluence tool with other indicators. --- ### **Cup and Handle Forming for 50% Upside** A "Cup and Handle" is a bullish continuation pattern that signals a period of consolidation followed by a potential breakout. * **The "Cup":** A "U" shaped formation where the price declines, bottoms out, and then rises back to approximately the original level. The cup's formation can range from 1 to 6 months. * **The "Handle":** A smaller, shorter consolidation pattern (often a flag or pennant) that forms on the right side of the cup, typically with a slight downward drift. The handle typically lasts 1 to 4 weeks and should form in the top half of the cup. * **Breakout:** A decisive move above the resistance level created by the top of the cup and handle, on increased volume, confirms the pattern. **MSTR - Is a Cup and Handle Forming?** Recent analysis has indeed highlighted the potential for a Cup and Handle formation on MSTR's chart. This implies: * **The "Cup":** MSTR saw a significant run-up to its all-time high of $543.00 in November 2024, followed by a pullback and then a recovery, potentially forming the "U" shape of a large cup. The stock's journey from its 52-week low of $102.40 to its high and subsequent retracement/recovery could be outlining this larger cup. The duration of this "cup" would be several months. * **The "Handle":** The current price action (around $383.88) comes after MSTR has seen a recovery from its lows, but is still significantly below its all-time high. The consolidation MSTR has been experiencing in recent weeks/months after its peak (e.g., trading between roughly $300 and $400 or higher) could be forming the "handle" of this larger pattern. **50% Upside Target:** The upside target for a Cup and Handle pattern is typically measured by the *depth of the cup* projected upwards from the breakout point. * **Depth of the Cup:** If we consider the peak of the cup around $543 and a significant low point (perhaps the bottom of the "U" around $300-$350), the depth could be substantial (e.g., $543 - $300 = $243). * **Breakout Level:** The breakout level would be the previous high of the "cup" (around $543.00). * **Projected Target:** If we use a depth of, say, $243, and add it to the breakout level of $543, that would imply a target around $786. This figure is significantly higher than the current price of $383.88. A 50% upside from the current price of $383.88 would put the target at approximately **$575.82**. This target is plausible within the context of a Cup and Handle breakout, especially if the cup's depth and the breakout confirm such a move. Reaching $575.82 would also put MSTR above its previous all-time high, indicating a new phase of price discovery. **Confirmation:** For this pattern to be confirmed, MSTR would need to: 1. Continue forming a clear "handle" consolidation without breaking down significantly. 2. Break out convincingly above the resistance level (the rim of the cup, potentially around the $500-$540 range) on strong volume. --- ### **Williams Alligator Strength (Daily Chart)** The Williams Alligator consists of three smoothed moving averages: Lips (Green, 5-period), Teeth (Red, 8-period), and Jaw (Blue, 13-period). **MSTR's Alligator State:** * MSTR has experienced significant volatility and swings. After its all-time high in November 2024, it saw a substantial correction, meaning the Alligator's mouth would have likely been open downwards (Blue > Red > Green). * More recently, MSTR has been in a recovery/consolidation phase. * **Current State:** Given today's slight down day (-0.71%), and the general consolidation, the Alligator's lines are likely **converging or intertwined ("sleeping")**. This indicates a non-trending period or sideways movement, where the price is consolidating its recent gains or losses. * **Strength:** When the Alligator is "sleeping," it signals a lack of strong directional conviction. The strength is neutral or weakening from a previous trend. For a strong uptrend to resume (and for the Cup and Handle to break out), the Alligator's mouth would need to "awaken" and open upwards (Green > Red > Blue) on increasing volume. --- ### **Overall Conclusion for MSTR:** MicroStrategy is a highly unique stock due to its significant Bitcoin holdings, which heavily influence its price action. * **Cup and Handle:** There is a compelling argument for a large **Cup and Handle pattern forming** on the daily chart. The implied 50% upside target from the current price, which would take it beyond its previous all-time high, makes this a very interesting setup. Confirmation of this pattern will require a clear breakout above the cup's resistance on strong volume. * **Time-Based Fibonacci:** While more subjective, time-based Fibonacci could provide insight into potential *timing* of trend changes or the end of the current consolidation, which would be crucial for a Cup and Handle breakout. * **Williams Alligator:** The Alligator is likely in a **"sleeping" or consolidating phase**, indicating current indecision or sideways movement. For the bullish Cup and Handle to materialize, the Alligator would need to "awaken" and confirm the new upward trend. **Important Considerations:** * **Bitcoin Correlation:** MSTR's price is highly correlated to Bitcoin's performance. Any significant moves in Bitcoin will heavily impact MSTR. * **Volatility:** MSTR is a highly volatile stock. * **Risk Management:** Always exercise prudent risk management and consider your investment goals. This analysis provides a technical perspective; it is not financial advice. Always conduct your own comprehensive research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by CheeseburgerLover
MicroStrategy (MSTR) – Bullish Price Reaccumulation Above EquiliAfter consolidating above the 0.618–0.786 retracement zone, NASDAQ:MSTR shows signs of institutional reaccumulation. The daily chart highlights a breakout from equilibrium with bullish intent, supported by increasing volume and smart money concepts. 📐 Technical Breakdown: Price reclaimed the 0.786 retracement level ($388.74) and broke above equilibrium, suggesting bullish continuation. Higher lows, BOS (Break of Structure), and CHoCH zones confirm smart money accumulation pattern. Fib target remains at $475.57 (1.236 extension), with supply zones marked between $504–$550 (premium zone). Volume profile shows a tapering discount zone—indicating sellers are drying up as value shifts higher. 🧠 Macro & Fundamental Context: As a Bitcoin-proxy equity, MicroStrategy’s price is heavily correlated to digital asset flows. Bitcoin ETF inflows have stabilized, and if BTC holds above $60K, NASDAQ:MSTR could accelerate. Macro tailwinds: Continued Fed pause, easing liquidity stress, and rising appetite for risk-on assets support the upside thesis. 📌 Key Levels: ⚡ Breakout: $388–$394 🔍 Target: $475.57 (1.236 Fib) 🛑 Invalidation: Close below $355.88 (0.618 Fib and volume shelf) 📈 Bias: Bullish 🧭 Timeframe: Swing to Position 🔗 Posted by WaverVanir_International_LLC This post is for informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. (APA7: TradingView, 2025)
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
MSTR Daily Chart Analysis: Key Price LevelsThis analysis focuses on the daily chart of MicroStrategy (MSTR), highlighting significant price action, identified patterns, and predefined support and resistance levels. Price Action Overview: Starting from late 2024/early 2025, MSTR experienced a notable downtrend, characterized by a series of lower highs and lower lows, leading to a test of the "Strong Support" zone, illustrated by the grey shaded area around the 230-240 price level. Following this decline, the chart illustrates a distinct "W" pattern formation, often interpreted as a potential bullish reversal signal. This pattern culminated in a decisive breakout above the overhead descending trendline (marked in red), indicating a shift in market structure from downtrend to a more bullish posture. Post-breakout, the price saw a strong upward move into May. A subsequent pullback found significant support within the "Key Support 360 to 370" zone, which appears to have acted as a crucial pivot point, preventing further decline. More recently, the price has consolidated and is current ly trading above the "1st Support 390 to 400" area. Key Levels Identified: Key Resistance / Target Level (435 to 450): The red shaded area at the top represents a significant overhead resistance zone. This level aligns with a previous peak and is identified as a potential target if the current upward momentum continues. 1st Support (390 to 400): This green shaded area serves as the immediate support level. The price has recently traded above this zone, suggesting it has transitioned into a new support area after potentially acting as resistance previously. Sustaining price action above this level would be a key observation. Key Support (360 to 370): Located below the first support, this green zone has demonstrated its importance in recent price action, coinciding with the lows seen in June, where buyers stepped in. Feb 50% Retracement & Flip Zone (330 to 340): This lower green shaded area represents a significant structural level, identified as a potential 50% Fibonacci retracement level from a previous move and a historical "flip zone" where price action shifted between support and resistance. Strong Support (approx. 230-240): The grey shaded box at the bottom indicates a strong historical support level, representing the lowest point observed within this timeframe, acting as a critical long-term floor. Current Observations: The current price of 405.09 indicates MSTR is trading above its immediate "1st Support 390 to 400" zone. The dotted blue line on the chart illustrates a hypothetical continuation of the current upward momentum, projecting a potential move towards the "Key Resistance / Target Level 435 to 450." Disclaimer: The information provided in this chart is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Trading and investing involve substantial risk and are not suitable for every investor. You should carefully consider your financial situation and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The creator of this chart does not guarantee any specific outcome or profit and is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of using this information. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Use this information at your own risk. This chart has been created for my own improvement in Trading and Investment Analysis. Please do your own analysis before any investments.
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by ManiMarkets
Strategy in SatoshiLooks like MSTR/BTC is being supported by the moving averages, as volatility drops under the all-time descending overhead. What this means is that once the overhead is breached, then MSTR starts to move more than BTC. You start to get days where MSTR moves 3x BTC, and 4x. What MSTU does, only the few and the proud know. It's not for you to know. You are too smart to hold long term an asset which is not intended to be held overnight. Only a fool would do it, or a crazy person, or a very shrewd person with a long time horizon and a middle finger to the taxman.
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by Shammus01
MSTR Bulls Reload on BTC ConvictionMSTR – Institutional Flow + BTC Correlation + Bull Vertical Spread Setup MicroStrategy (MSTR), operating as “Strategy,” just went full throttle—adding 10,100 BTC between June 9–15 at an average of $104,080 per coin, totaling over $1.05B. With this, they now hold 592,100 BTC (>$63B), solidifying their status as the largest Bitcoin-holding public company. That’s a bold move amid the ongoing Israel-Iran macro uncertainty, signaling confidence, not caution. This latest BTC buy was funded via STRK and STRF ATM offerings and the $979.7M STRD preferred IPO. Since initiating their Bitcoin treasury strategy in 2020, MSTR has soared over 3,000%, and they’re projecting a 25% BTC yield for 2025 after already clocking in at 13.7% YTD. 🔎 Flow Watch Institutional activity around current price levels has been sharp—confirming conviction behind the recent momentum. With BTC hovering at critical support, I’m eyeing a potential short-term bullish reversal. Given the tight correlation between BTC and MSTR, the setup looks primed. 🎯 My Strategy I’m targeting a bull vertical spread—buying the 382.5 call and selling the 385 call. This defined-risk, limited-reward setup positions me to capture near-term upside if BTC begins a rebound and MSTR follows suit. The tight strike range and elevated IV make it ideal for a premium-efficient directional bet.
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by Wiiso
Could Microstrategy be a 1 Trillion dollar mcap company?!Microstrategy and Michael Saylor evoke a spectrum of opinions, with analysts offering a diverse range of potential future valuations. High risk, high reward! The destiny of Microstrategy’s market capitalization is clearly linked to Bitcoin’s performance. The company has been utilizing debt to acquire the cryptocurrency, aiming to create significant spreads. This leverage is the reason why the stock has significantly outperformed Bitcoin throughout 2024. I am confident that Bitcoin can indeed reach $200k, with a potential upper price target of $250K for this cycle, indicating a potentially explosive Q3 and Q4. The lingering question is how much additional FOMO and premium Saylor can cultivate for his leveraged vehicle in such an environment? That's why charting is such a key component to any personal investing strategy IMHO, as we navigate these markets.
NASDAQ:MSTR
by BallaJi
2
MicroStrategy another pull back before all time high?NASDAQ:MSTR analysis update.. 📉 𝙇𝙤𝙣𝙜 𝙩𝙚𝙧𝙢 The weekly R5 pivot target is bold at $1500 but definitely possible as a max greed scenario when the triple tailwind of Bitcoin, SPY and Bitcoin treasury companies trends return. 📉 𝙎𝙝𝙤𝙧𝙩 𝙩𝙚𝙧𝙢 retracement is expected to end around the S1 pivot at $341 and a secondary target of $321. Irans conflict has investors shaken and not willing to hold assets over the weekend on the fear of worse. However, if the conflict is resolved soon investors could have a great buying opportunity. 𝙏𝙚𝙘𝙝𝙣𝙞𝙘𝙖𝙡 𝘼𝙣𝙖𝙡𝙮𝙨𝙞𝙨 Price appears to have completed wave (B) of an ABC correction in wave 4. Wave C is underway with an expected thrust down (such is the nature of wave C) towards the daily S1 pivot $341. This is also the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement, a high probability area for wave 4 to end. A deeper correction will bring up a triple shield of the High Volume Node, ascending daily 200EMA and 0.5 fibonacci retracement at £321. Daily DEMA has death crossed. Safe trading
NASDAQ:MSTR
by Maddox_Metrics
MSTR Long - high squeeze potentialMSTR recently made 20-day highs (green candles) and then sold off towards the 20D EMA trendline. Meanwhile, looking at a proxy of net buying/selling (bottom panel), there has been neither significant buying nor selling activity. All of this is setting up the potential for a squeeze higher. Needless to say, please manage your risks carefully and consider setting a stop-loss upon MSTR closing at a 20-day low (red candle). Both indicators (Breakout Trend and Buying/Selling Proxy) are available for free on TradingView.
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by TiltFolio
MSTR - EWAVESThis analysis of MicroStrategy (MSTR) is rooted purely in the principles of Elliott Wave Theory. We are closely monitoring both the inner and outer wave degrees to identify the ongoing structure, potential reversals, and continuation patterns. The goal is to map the impulsive and corrective phases across multiple timeframes, giving a high-probability roadmap of price action. This approach helps in understanding the market’s fractal nature and positioning for key inflection points based on wave maturity.
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by rasikas108
MSTR in SatoshisI'm touching base on MSRT/BTC because we had another touch of this overhead - confirming the overhead basically, and predicting that if we touch this overhead again, we get a breakout. Nothing has changed in the gameplan. It's just taking time. Time is a rare luxury, and most people don't have it, so the market works to strip the impatient and give to the patient. The market is tuned against you, and still you think you can outwit the market, but it's impossible if you don't have time, and very few do.
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by Shammus01