MSTR short idea
NASDAQ:MSTR : introduction to gravity about to take place.
Massive blue channel must hold, or it's lights-out.
Hold onto your hamburgers.
MSTR trade ideas
MicroStrategy is buying additional $42 billion worth of BTCMicroStrategy announced its plans to buy more Bitcoin: $42 billion worth of BTC.
Why does it matter to us? After the purchase, over 3% of the Bitcoin supply will be held by a single company. Other companies are also adding BTC to their balance sheet. Countries are also doing it. BUT Bitcoin is scarce.
So far, in total, NASDAQ:MSTR has invested $9.9B into Bitcoin; this investment will be more than 4x that figure.
MicroStrategy is currently valued at $50.11B, which means that BTC has been playing an important role in increasing shareholder value.
Michael Saylor announced "raising $42 billion of capital over the next 3 years, comprised of $21 billion of equity and $21 billion of fixed income securities".
MSTR - Next Stop $1I was going to say zero but I'll be nice and say $1. Saylor is going to bust MSTR like he did in the dotcom and take Bitcoin down with it.
MSTR back at Dotcom supply, I would not want to hold or buy this here, this won't get pretty I'm afraid.
MicroStrategy earningsMSTR earnings are today, Wednesday 10/30 at 4pm. I'm posting this as a short because there's no logical reason for MicroStrategy to have such a drastic divergence from Bitcoin since September. With BTC +68% YTD at all time high levels and MSTR +280% YTD there's just no point being long MSTR all the way up here around 260 / share. The market can stay irrational longer than I think. However, MSTR is way past the point of a good risk : reward long in my opinion. If you're not a trader and are a perma Bitcoin bull, better off selling MSTR and putting the proceeds into BTC before this thing drops. This is my bias speculation. I'm curious to see how far the market will push MSTR beyond all common sense.
MSTR financials
Q1-24 EPS $-0.31
Q2-24 EPS $-0.57
Q3-24 EPS estimate $-0.11
MSTR options data
11/1/24 expiry
Put Volume Total 23,648
Call Volume Total 33,277
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.71
Put Open Interest Total 158,229
Call Open Interest Total 157,110
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.01
11/8/24 expiry
Put Volume Total 3,352
Call Volume Total 6,089
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.55
Put Open Interest Total 22,599
Call Open Interest Total 26,203
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.86
11/15/24 expiry
Put Volume Total2,413
Call Volume Total4,087
Put/Call Volume Ratio0.59
Put Open Interest Total160,616
Call Open Interest Total142,239
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.13
MicroStrategy "Micro" Mania.MicroStrategy "Micro" Mania.
Distance from 36 day moving average unwinding.
Peak FOMO most likely behind us.
The trap is set.
#mstr #bitcoin @saylor
Ticker: $MSTR Pinbar daily close NASDAQ:MSTR
A potential pinbar candle is forming on the daily chart, which could signal a bullish reversal. A pinbar candle is a strong indicator of potential price direction change, often showing that buyers have regained control after a period of selling pressure. However, a pinbar candle alone may lack significance if it forms in a neutral area of the chart with little trading context.
In this case, the pinbar has formed at a strong support level, which previously acted as resistance. This alignment with a key level enhances the pinbar’s strength as a reversal signal. Support and resistance levels are crucial for analyzing price action, as they often act as zones where buying or selling pressure increases. When a pinbar appears at such a significant level, it suggests that bulls are stepping in to defend this area, increasing the likelihood of an upward movement.
If the pinbar closes above or near the support level, it could confirm a solid buy signal, particularly if other indicators align.
BTC is also holding a similar strong support level - let’s see if the bulls can retake the wheel!
Don't Change That Channel!Can MSTR stay in the this rising channel for another six weeks? It would seem unlikely, but so was their stock price rising 507% in the past year. I guess 200% from here is possible, especially if Bitcoin performs as predicted and hits $100K this year. We shall see.
MSTR earnings vs significant purchase announementsEarnings in yellow, >200mm purchase announcements in green against BTC
Since incorporating the Bitcoin StrategySince incorporating the Bitcoin Strategy, Michael Saylor has outperformed every single stock in the entire S&P500, including Nvidia. Big shoutout to him, well done sir.
MSTR BullAs MSTR overtakes the entire stock market and engulfs all of the capital in the markets it should move to the number 1# stock.
Lets go!
MicroStrategy's Bullish Run: A Closer LookMicroStrategy, a business intelligence company, has been making significant strides in the cryptocurrency market, particularly with its substantial Bitcoin holdings. The company's market capitalization is inching closer to that of Coinbase, a major cryptocurrency exchange. This surge in valuation has sparked interest and speculation among investors and analysts alike.
A Strategic Bitcoin Bet
MicroStrategy's aggressive Bitcoin buying strategy, spearheaded by CEO Michael Saylor, has positioned the company as a major player in the cryptocurrency space. The company's belief in Bitcoin's long-term potential as a store of value and a hedge against inflation has driven its decision to allocate a significant portion of its treasury to the cryptocurrency.
This strategic move has paid off handsomely, as Bitcoin's price has soared recently. As a result, MicroStrategy's stock price has also experienced substantial growth, attracting the attention of investors seeking exposure to the cryptocurrency market without directly owning Bitcoin.
Market Cap Milestone Looms
With its market capitalization steadily rising, MicroStrategy is on the cusp of a major milestone: overtaking Coinbase's market cap. At the time of writing, MicroStrategy is just $3.9 billion away from achieving this feat. This would be a significant achievement for a company that was once primarily known for its business intelligence software.
Factors Driving MicroStrategy's Success
Several factors have contributed to MicroStrategy's impressive performance:
1. Bitcoin's Price Appreciation: The continued rise in Bitcoin's price has directly benefited MicroStrategy, as the company's Bitcoin holdings have increased in value.
2. Institutional Adoption of Bitcoin: Growing institutional interest in Bitcoin has legitimized the cryptocurrency and increased its appeal to mainstream investors.
3. MicroStrategy's Strong Balance Sheet: The company's solid financial position has enabled it to weather market volatility and continue its Bitcoin accumulation strategy.
4. Investor Confidence in Michael Saylor's Vision: Saylor's unwavering belief in Bitcoin and his ability to execute on his strategy have instilled confidence in investors.
Technical Analysis: A Bullish Outlook
Technical analysis of MicroStrategy's stock chart reveals a bullish trend. The stock has been forming higher highs and higher lows, indicating a strong uptrend. Additionally, the recent surge in trading volume relative to Nvidia, a tech giant, suggests increased investor interest and potential for further price appreciation.
The MicroStrategy stock-to-BTC ratio has also hit an all-time high, surpassing the levels seen during the 2021 bull run. This indicates that investors increasingly value MicroStrategy's Bitcoin holdings, which could further drive the stock price higher.
Potential Risks and Challenges
While MicroStrategy's future looks promising, it is important to acknowledge the potential risks and challenges that could impact the company's performance:
1. Bitcoin Price Volatility: Bitcoin's price is highly volatile, and any significant decline could negatively impact MicroStrategy's valuation.
2. Regulatory Uncertainty: Changes in cryptocurrency regulations could create uncertainty and hinder the company's operations.
3. Competition from Other Bitcoin-Focused Companies: Other companies may emerge as strong competitors, challenging MicroStrategy's dominance in the Bitcoin investment space.
Conclusion
MicroStrategy's impressive performance and its strategic focus on Bitcoin have positioned it as a major player in the cryptocurrency market. As the company continues to execute its strategy and benefit from Bitcoin's long-term growth potential, its market capitalization could surpass that of Coinbase, marking a significant milestone. However, investors should be mindful of the inherent risks associated with cryptocurrency investments and conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions.
Opening (IRA): MSTR 180/210/410/440 Iron Condor... for a 6.03 credit.
Comments: High IV at 95.8%. Here, going delta neutral, 1/10th the price of the underlying for my wing width, and setting up my short option strikes at the 16 delta on both sides.
Metrics:
Max Profit: 6.03
Buying Power Effect: 23.97
ROC at Max: 25.16%
50% Max: 3.02
ROC at 50% Max: 12.58%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max; roll in untested side on side test.
Opening (IRA): MSTR Dec 20th 75/155 Short Put Vertical... for a 5.43 credit.
Comments: High IVR/IV at 61.1/113.9. Doing something a little different here, selling the 10 delta short put and buying a put that cuts BPE in about half over doing a naked. Going low delta because, well, the underlying kind of scares the poo out of me.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect: 74.57
Max Profit: 5.43
ROC at Max: 7.28%
50% Max: 2.72
ROC at 50% Max: 3.64
Compare:
Dec 20th 155 Short Put (Cash Secured)
BPE: 148.30
Max Profit: 6.65
ROC at Max: 4.48%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max.
MSTR multiple reversal signalsMSTR showing multiple reversal signal. The Bitcoin ATH and US Election hypes are running out. Expecting a pull back here back to 190.
Microstrategy #MSTR might have a double left versus BitcoinCup handle
with linear and log targets provided
simple and clear chart
MSTR topped before btc last cycle interesting to note right!
Massive Bearish Butterfly in MSTR? I've explained my BTC thesis is depth and discussed my entries into the proxy bets of COIN and ETH shorts last week.
Another one I have been wanting to short for some time now if MSTR but it has the pending harmonic and it had not hit the 1.61 yet.
Until that is hit, there's always a chance you short and it goes parabolic immediately and then tops a bit over the 1.61.
I've learned to wait. But now we're right into the area I want to attempt big shorts on this.
MicroStrategy Inc. $MSTR Analysis & Possible TargetsIn my opinion, we're getting close to the equality target (A=C, $236).
If it continues then next possible target= $312
Let's see how it goes!
NASDAQ:MSTR #MSTR
MSTR / IBIT Ratio Analysis doesn't have to be complex. Consider this straightforward ratio that captures the performance of MicroStrategy Stock against Bitcoin. Utilizing IBIT as a stand-in for Bitcoin resolves the disparity between 24/7 and NYSE trading hours. As neither security pays dividends, there's no need for ex-dividend adjustments.
$MSTR looking strong hereHolding the 8 day moving average like a champ. Even if it pulls back to the 21 day. Looking to add here and there.
$MSTRworld class ponzi
do not fear the crazy valuations
"the market is more irrational then you think" - someone
MSTR eyes on $154: the Decision Zone for next moveMSTR is at a key level that should determine the next move.
Break-and-Retest of zone would be the buy signal to look for.
Rejection and loss of next fib below it would be a sell signal.
$ 152.17 - 154.08 is the exact zone of interest.
$ 175.25 - 178.09 will be the next target above.
$ 110.23 - 113.01 will be the key support below.
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