MSTR PL dot push and refreshThe essential element of the Drummond Geometry is the PL dot (Point and Line). This dot is a short term moving average that is calculated as the average of the last three candles averages of High, Low and Close. In Drumond Geometry, the open plays no role.
PL dot = Avg(Avg(H1,L1,C1) + Avg(H2,L2,C2) + Avg(H3,L3,C3))
The key difference with other moving averages is the fact that in the Drummond Geometry, the result of the above calculation is shifted by one bar in the future, thus one knows in advance where the PL dot is for the upcoming bar.
The PL dot is very responsive. When there is a trend, then the PL dot is sloping in the diretion of the trend (up or down) whereas if the PL dot is horizontal we have a congestion condition in the market.
The PL dot offen sits at the top or the bottom of the bar, pushing the price up or down in a so called "PL dot push". In the MSTR weekly view, one can see how the PL dot was support since September and was pushing the price up until now.
The trade one could have taken is to long around the PL dot and put a stop loss couple of point below. The target would be first the Envelope Top and if the PL dot had "sufficient strength" then the final target would have been in the Area 6 (Exhaust zone). One can see how the exhaust zone acted as resistance and made price go back to the PL dot for a "PL dot refresh". Thus when price strays away from the Pl dot, the second pattern to trade would be the "PL dot refresh".
Imagine the dot as container of energy which waxes and wanes depending on the curcomstances. So when price travels away from the PL dot, it tends to "refresh" itself and confir wheter there is still energy for the move to continue.
MSTR trade ideas
MicroStrategy (MSTR) Stock OverviewTimeframes Observed:
4-Hour Chart (Left):
The stock experienced a significant pullback after reaching a previous high of $543.
Current price action is consolidating within the highlighted yellow liquidity zone between approximately $328 and $390.
The Fibonacci retracement levels are clearly marked, with key levels at:
38.2% ($415): Indicates minor resistance.
50% ($439): A critical mid-level that could act as a pivot point.
61.8% ($463): A strong resistance zone if the stock retraces upwards.
The stock is hovering near the 23.6% retracement level ($383), which suggests buyers are defending this area.
10-Day Chart (Right):
The longer-term perspective shows a similar liquidity zone around $328 to $390, suggesting this area is critical for price stability and buyer accumulation.
The previous high ($543) is marked as a key resistance level, with expectations of a potential retest if the bullish momentum returns.
The Fibonacci extensions indicate upside targets, with a 1.618 extension at $667 and a 2.618 extension at $872, if bullish momentum sustains.
Key Insights:
Support Zones:
The stock is currently trading within a strong liquidity zone, which aligns with both timeframes, suggesting a solid base of support.
The $328 level is identified as a critical buy zone, as highlighted on the 10-day chart.
Resistance Levels:
The $383-$390 range (23.6% retracement) is being tested and could act as a pivot point for a potential upward move.
If momentum picks up, the next resistance levels to watch are $415 (38.2%), $439 (50%), and $463 (61.8%).
Market Behavior:
On the 4-hour chart, the stock is consolidating, showing potential signs of accumulation for a move higher.
On the 10-day chart, the stock is holding its bullish structure, indicating the recent pullback might be a healthy retracement within a larger upward trend.
Outlook:
Bullish Scenario: If the stock continues to build support in the current range and breaks above $390, it could target the higher Fibonacci levels, eventually leading to a retest of $543 and possibly new highs.
Bearish Scenario: If the stock fails to hold the liquidity zone around $328-$390, a deeper correction could occur, with further downside risks.
Microstrategy in Satoshis Nice retrace in sats after coming down from lofty heights. That MSTU pump was nuts. Where is the next higher swing high? Also, MSTU/MSTR is crossing 50% to parity between them. Look out for the 1 -test. Sat target above is a prior swing low, so the ratio should go for that. Everything according to plan
$MSTR looks like it double bottomed on the weekly chartI believe MSTR completed its entire weeks expected move to the downside today. Therefore, should be a gap up with new shorts underwater to start the day then head upwards tomorrow and if so, I expect further upside on the shortened trading day Friday.
Lower low on RSI with higher price and retracement to golden fibLooks to me like MSTR is going up from here, retraced to golden fib,
RSI has a lower low (White line on RSI) with an inverted price showing a higher high (Orange Line in same time frame on chart, building a wedge). The RSI is also about to turn and other indicators show bullish moment coming in strong.
From a macro perspective BTC is about to run and their BTC per share is more attractive now then it has been in weeks. MSTR to escape velocity once it breaks out of this wedge
$MSTR Analysis... Possible Scenario!This could be usable... I guess!😊
If we consider the length of wave A in calculating the end of wave C, we can establish a relationship between them, justifying the end of wave C. In this scenario, the current retracement is expected to continue to the $338 level, representing 61.8% of wave A!
Let's see how it goes!... Cheers
NASDAQ:MSTR #MSTR
MSTR is Back To Dotcom Boom Levels...Finally. But At What Cost?Self-explanatory chart. I called a major top for Bitcoin and Microstrategy back in 2022, detailing the possibility of much lower prices for both.
This ended up being correct, but only in the short term. Since then, both BTC and Microstrategy have surprised me to the upside. It's incredible that only now has MSTR reached a valuation it has not seen since the year 2000. Look at that volume! Mania levels.
Microstrategy now owns 386,700 Bitcoin, almost 2% of the entire 21 Million maximum supply. This is triple the supply ownership from 2022, when it was just over 100,000. That's triple the risk. What could go wrong?
It's impossible to know when this could all go up in flames, but I'm certainly ready to watch when it happens. These kinds of price moves and buying behavior are not sustainable. It is also starting to rub more and more Bitcoiners the wrong way - "this is not how it was meant to be!"
Meanwhile, Saylor continues to enrichen himself and shareholders. Not to mention, there is now at least one leveraged MSTR ETF. Again, what could go wrong? Some people have made a killing on this though. Congrats to them. Now it's time to take at least some profit. On the above chart, a breakdown from that orange trendline should indicate a top.
Let's see how it all unfolds. If price manages to hold up here, perhaps there will be at least one more leg up.
As always, this is meant for speculative purposes only. As shown throughout my work on this site, it's really easy to be wrong. I just find the guesswork part of the fun. Thanks for reading!
-Victor Cobra
An Intriguing Bitcoin PlayRecent Performance: MicroStrategy (MSTR) has experienced a dynamic trading
environment tied closely to the volatility of Bitcoin. The company's recent
price of 421.88 reflects investor sentiment influenced by macroeconomic
trends and Bitcoin's trading patterns. As MSTR focuses on its Bitcoin
acquisition strategy, its market performance is inherently linked to the
digital currency's fluctuations, drawing both potential investors and
skeptics.
- Key Insights: Investors should note that MSTR's aggressive Bitcoin investment
strategy creates a unique opportunity but also significant risk. The
relationship between Bitcoin's price movements and MSTR's equity performance
is crucial for trading decisions. A potential upside exists if Bitcoin
trends positively, especially if it approaches critical psychological
levels. Investors should consider their risk tolerance and market conditions
before acting.
- Expert Analysis: Experts suggest that MSTR's Bitcoin-centric model is a
pioneering move that could redefine corporate asset management. Market
sentiment is leaning cautiously optimistic, given the potential for high
returns in a bullish Bitcoin environment. However, the consensus remains
that the volatility of cryptocurrency poses serious risks, which must be
factored into any investment decision.
- Price Targets:
- Next week targets: T1: 462.00, T2: 475.00
- Stop levels: S1: 374.40, S2: 369.90
- News Impact: Recent developments regarding regulatory frameworks affecting
cryptocurrencies could significantly influence MSTR's market dynamics.
Ongoing conversations around corporate investments in digital assets reflect
a shifting landscape that may provide further opportunities for MSTR.
Investor sentiment may become positively skewed as analysts and stakeholders
monitor Bitcoin's trajectory and regulatory impacts closely, creating a
conducive environment for MSTR to thrive if managed prudently.
MSTR. Long?Tough call on this one. It is at all time highs and going off fibs. It rejected perfectly at my projection off the yearly move to the high from the past. Now it must hold here or the level below. Not to confident in that though. I personally wouldn't touch this stock for a long until $100 range. Not going to short this or take a long until we hit major support. If I miss out that is fine!
MSTR Explosion IncomingI've been talking about my change to being bullish on BTC a lot lately and I've been looking at some ways to get long exposure. MSTR owns a lot of Bitcoin and plan to keep buying it. The company will continue to increase in value as BTC rises based on that alone, not to mention all the other revenue channels.
I don't know if I'd call this a cup handle, but it does have a lot of the characteristics. Large rounding bottom followed by a downtrend/bull flag after. It's currently near ATH and I expect it to break above soon. The problem is that it's already fairly overextended, however if it does break ATH it will most likely lead to another explosive leg up. It's a risky proposition at the moment, it could end up with a double top at ATH, but trade comes without risk.
THE FASTEST UTURN IN HISTORY ON MY ACCOUNT; BULLISHAs we explained last week, the break of 540 sends it down back into the 300s before making a slight recovery towards the end of the week. Momentum is with Bitcoin and the all-exclusive 100k break. If this is about to happen on the latest dip, we could see another gap this coming Thanksgiving week of Monday.
MSTR - BUYProbability for MSTR Returning to $453:
in the current environment, MSTR can return to its previous highs if Bitcoin continues its upward trajectory and macro conditions remain favorable. However, the stock remains highly speculative, and traders should watch Bitcoin closely as the primary driver.
1-2 Weeks: ~50% — Needs Bitcoin above $40k. Resistance likely.
1-3 Months: ~70% — Bitcoin rally continuation and institutional interest help.
6-12 Months: ~80% — Long-term crypto bullishness increases chances.
Don't Change That Channel Part 2I did not make the first channel high enough. So, this is an update. I threw in an auto pitch fork that seems to validate the thesis.
We did take a run out the top of the channel and the shorts pushed the price back inside our seemingly durable path. Let's see what happens.