MicroStrategy and Bitcoin still in correction modeMicroStrategy and Bitcoin still in correction mode on weekly time frame.
I repeat, low risk entry points are not found here.
MSTR trade ideas
Possible downtrend for $MSTRWe observe that NASDAQ:MSTR is breaking out of a zone that could determine the downtrend. This is also visible in the Dynamic RSI, which shows a continuous decline. Additionally, the current news for BTC is not favorable, suggesting that BTC could gradually decrease. This might mark the beginning of an Altcoin season. Since NASDAQ:MSTR holds a significant amount of BTC, this has a substantial impact on its stock price, potentially causing it to fall into the resistance zone.
MSTR....the force of gravity is strongMSTR is in news and buying up BTC at the top again with debt from retailers, I mean what could ever go wrong? Let's dive in to the downward channel and find out.....Yes, it looks like it broke the resistance line, but I think the Champagne effect of the new crypto friendly president is still in the bottle. Let's be patient and wait to see what happens. My sense is that it will drop like a ton of bricks and MSTZ (inverse) will rise like a falcon.
If you want to make money in trading you can't think like everyone else (sheep)....
Best of luck and always do your own due diligence!
SHORT MSTRThis setup for MicroStrategy (MSTR) is based on its close correlation to Bitcoin price action and a repeating fractal pattern from its last cycle high. The stock appears to be mirroring historical movements, providing a high-confidence opportunity for a short trade as patterns tend to repeat. The trade will focus on DCA into shorts with the expectation of a significant pullback.
Trade Plan Details
1. DCA INTO SHORTS:
DCA Range: $375–$450
This zone aligns with the overhead resistance and prior rejection levels.
Approach: Gradually add to the short position if the price moves higher, staying within this range.
2. POSITION SIZING:
Initial Entry: Start small at $375 to ensure flexibility.
Scaling Strategy: Add more to the position as price approaches $400–$450.
Example:
$375: 1 unit
$400: 2 units
$425–$450: Max position
3. TARGETS:
Short-term Target: $300
Mid-term Target: $250
Long-term Target: $185
These levels correspond to key Fibonacci retracements and historical price reactions from prior cycles.
4. STOP LOSS:
Stop out above $475 (significant invalidation level).
Rationale
Fractal Pattern Repetition:
The price action is nearly identical to the previous cycle high, making it likely to follow the same trajectory.
Bitcoin Correlation:
MSTR closely mirrors Bitcoin's performance. With BTC overextended, MSTR is vulnerable to a significant pullback.
Valuation Concerns:
MSTR's valuation heavily relies on Bitcoin holdings, which are unsustainable at these levels.
Risk-Reward Ratio:
Excellent R:R potential with clear downside targets.
Key Zones and Levels1) 2023: The price started to accumulate from
the end of Q2 to the middle of Q4 in 2022.
Then, at the end of Q4, the price broke below
the range, swept a weekly low from May 9,
2022, and utilized the weekly IFVG from March 9, 2020.
The price is currently in a monthly MMBM.
2) The CE of the weekly gap has rejected the price.
My final target for the monthly MMBM is around $667.
Currently, I am monitoring the $285–$380 area on the Daily and H1 timeframes.
383 Daily / 283.30 WeeklyThis channel is not providing individualized trading or investment advice, nor is it a banking service, brokerage service, trading service, investment service or money management
service.
It is just an educated guess.
Short Idea MSTRA short and simple short idea for MSTR:
We wait for the price to touch the gap without closing it. The recent interim highs, where sell-offs occurred, allow us to set a tight stop.
We then expect prices to fall significantly into the range of the take profit shown.
Opening (IRA): MSTR 2x225/2x240/460/490 Iron Condor... for a 7.00 credit.
Comments: IV remains high here at 112.4%. Going "double double" (put spread half the width of the call spread, but 2 x the number of contracts) to accommodate skew. Earnings are on 2/4, so will probably want to get out before then.
Metrics:
Max Profit: 7.00
Buying Power Effect: 23.00
ROC at Max: 30.43%
50% Max: 3.50
ROC at 50% Max: 15.22%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll in untested side on side test to about half the delta of the tested side. Given earnings on the horizon, will naturally just money/take/run for less if presented with the opportunity.
I am scare to take this trade .... must be the one This channel is not providing individualized trading or investment advice, nor is it a banking service, brokerage service, trading service, investment service or money management
service.
It is just an educated guess.
Opening (IRA): MSTR 180/210/410/440 Iron Condor... for a 6.03 credit.
Comments: High IV at 95.8%. Here, going delta neutral, 1/10th the price of the underlying for my wing width, and setting up my short option strikes at the 16 delta on both sides.
Metrics:
Max Profit: 6.03
Buying Power Effect: 23.97
ROC at Max: 25.16%
50% Max: 3.02
ROC at 50% Max: 12.58%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max; roll in untested side on side test.
Long MSTR: Watch for Key Breakouts Next Week
- Key Insights: MicroStrategy's stock remains sensitive to Bitcoin's price
fluctuations, with a current sentiment hinting at a potential recovery if
Bitcoin stabilizes. A breakout above $338.76 could signal a bullish trend,
while drops below $316.93 could lead to further losses. Anticipation
surrounds a crucial shareholder vote on January 21st, which could
significantly affect future stock performance by allowing more Bitcoin
acquisitions. Investors should monitor Bitcoin's market dynamics and perform
thorough risk assessments considering the stock's volatility.
- Price Targets: Next week targets: T1: $340, T2: $360; Stop levels: S1:
$316.93, S2: $310.
- Recent Performance: MSTR has seen significant moves, declining approximately
40% from recent highs and reflecting investor concerns about its
cryptocurrency-heavy strategy. The fluctuations in Bitcoin's valuation have
directly impacted MSTR's stock performance, leading to increased volatility
in trading activity.
- Expert Analysis: Analysts maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook for MSTR,
balancing skepticism over its substantial Bitcoin emphasis with the
potential for positive returns if Bitcoin prices rebound. Market sentiment
nudges towards bullish, influenced by expected increases in Bitcoin value
amidst investor speculation. The critical resistance and support levels will
likely drive short-term trading decisions.
- News Impact: The upcoming shareholder vote on January 21st is expected to be a
weighty factor, potentially enabling MicroStrategy to pursue more aggressive
Bitcoin acquisition strategies. The company has successfully raised capital
through convertible debt, signaling a continued commitment to its ambitious
investment plan amid scrutiny about volatility and regulatory changes in the
cryptocurrency market. Investors are urged to assess risks associated with
MicroStrategy's approach while tracking Bitcoin's performance closely.
SOY 2024 - MSTR Monthly Seasonality StatsThe chart for MSTR (MicroStrategy) displays significant volatility and seasonal trends from 2015 to 2024. The stock tends to show strong positive performance in January, with notable gains in 2020, 2021, and 2023, aligning with the broader market optimism at the start of the year. However, February and March have been less consistent, with MSTR seeing significant declines in those months during 2018, 2022, and 2023. April and May also display mixed returns, with notable performance spikes in 2019 and 2020, although May often struggles. The summer months of June and July have historically been volatile, with substantial drawdowns in 2022 and 2023, especially during crypto winter, a period of declining cryptocurrency values. August continues this trend of volatility, while September remains a weak month, consistently underperforming.
One of the key factors affecting MSTR is its direct exposure to Bitcoin, as the company holds substantial Bitcoin reserves. This connection makes MSTR highly sensitive to cryptocurrency market fluctuations, contributing to its increased volatility, particularly during crypto downturns. Notably, MSTR’s performance has been volatile during periods of crypto market stress, such as in 2022 and 2023.
The inclusion of MSTR into QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF) further magnifies this risk, as the ETF’s performance is now somewhat tied to MSTR's volatility. When MSTR’s Bitcoin holdings underperform or experience a significant decline, it can drag down the performance of QQQ , which could introduce more volatility into the tech-heavy ETF. This could lead to discrepancies in returns between QQQ and SPY , especially in periods when cryptocurrency struggles. The market's growing dependence on MSTR’s performance could make QQQ more sensitive to crypto market cycles, exacerbating its volatility compared to other more diversified ETFs like SPY .
MSTR - It just touched the point and V-shaped recovery.Given it is a holiday everyone will take the bitcoin up, we will be having a beautiful weekend.
MSTR may test 313 and then move back to 380 by end of the week.Today is a reaction to the economic data, given there is a planned purchase from Microstrategy for additional 2 billion; the stock may temporarily see a low of 313 based on fib retracements and continue to move back up to 380 levels or higher at the end of the week.
$MSTR sub $200 before $1000+?NASDAQ:MSTR looks pretty bearish here. We're trading under a key support and it looks like it wants lower. I think if the next candle turns red, then we're likely to see a large selloff all the way down to the lower supports.
If we can make it back up above this support level at $363, and close above it, it would be a trigger long. Then I think we're likely to see a large run all the way up to the upper resistances to 1000+.
Let's see how the price action unfolds here.
MicroStrategy Incorporated (MSTR): Balancing Between Rebound andNASDAQ:MSTR
🔥 LucanInvestor’s Strategy:
🩸 Long: Above $363.01, targeting $380 and $399. Momentum needs to confirm with strong volume.
🩸 Short: Below $337.78, targeting $320 and $300. Selling pressure could escalate further.
🔥 LucanInvestor’s Commands:
🩸 Resistance: $363.01. A breakout may reignite bullish momentum towards $380.
🩸 Support: $337.78. A breakdown risks pushing towards $320.
Despite recent recovery attempts, MicroStrategy faces critical levels. MACD remains in negative territory, highlighting caution. Volume support will be key for any sustained moves.
👑 "Success comes to those who can act decisively in uncertain times." — LucanInvestor
MSTR....gravity is hard with this oneMSTR had some wings for a bit, but everyone knows it's not an eagle and it's flying too high. Next few hours we'll see a bit of a correction and taking a position on MSTZ to take advantage of the swing. All major technical indicators point to the spike, but profit taking will prevail and it will crash until the support level is reached.
Best of luck and always do your own dd!
MSTR vs BTCThis is a MicroStrategy vs Bitcoin comparison chart. I multiplied MSTR shares x 500 to get an average value of MSTR in relation to BTC over the last 4 years. As you can see, as of October 2024, MSTR had a massive disconnect compared to BTC's price action. I see this as a red flag and reason to take caution going long MSTR while it's so overvalued compared to BTC. It's my speculation that MSTR trading momentum won't slow down until there's a catastrophic collapse of MSTR share price for an unknown reason in the future. Until then, trade long with proper risk management and plan accurate short entry positioning. On the average day MSTR moves +40 -40 from high to low according to the ATR indicator 20 moving average.
MSTR = white
BTC = blue
Options data:
1/10/25 expiry
Put Volume Total 115,980
Call Volume Total 369,028
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.31
Put Open Interest Total 122,469
Call Open Interest Total 245,015
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.50
1/17 expiry
Put Volume Total 68,578
Call Volume Total 95,060
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.72
Put Open Interest Total 540,322
Call Open Interest Total 305,998
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.77
1/24 expiry
Put Volume Total 7,154
Call Volume Total 11,078
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.65
Put Open Interest Total 20,348
Call Open Interest Total 14,009
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.45
MicroStrategy FEAT BTC $500 by 2025 Bitcoin Investment Strategy: MicroStrategy has heavily invested in Bitcoin, making it the largest corporate holder of the cryptocurrency. If Bitcoin's value appreciates significantly, as it has in past cycles, this could directly boost MicroStrategy's stock price due to the large unrealized gains on its balance sheet. Posts on X mention the company's Bitcoin holdings as a major influence on its stock performance.
S&P 500 Inclusion: There's speculation that MicroStrategy could be included in the S&P 500, which would likely result in substantial capital inflows from index funds and ETFs. Analysts like Willy Woo have speculated that this could lead to $10-15 billion in inflows, potentially driving the stock price higher. This is discussed in web results where potential S&P 500 inclusion is seen as a catalyst for MSTR to reach $500.
Accounting Rule Changes: New accounting standards from the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) effective from 2025 will allow MicroStrategy to report unrealized gains on its Bitcoin holdings, potentially boosting reported earnings and making the stock more attractive to investors. This change could qualify MicroStrategy for the S&P 500 if it reports positive earnings, as noted in several web results.
Capital Raising and Shareholder Votes: MicroStrategy plans to raise significant capital for further Bitcoin purchases, with a shareholder vote to increase the number of authorized shares dramatically. This strategy, including the $42 billion capital plan, could fund more Bitcoin acquisition, potentially increasing the value of the company's assets. Discussions on X highlight this as a move that could lead to a significant run-up in stock price.
Market Sentiment and Bitcoin Cycles: The stock market's perception of MicroStrategy as a Bitcoin proxy means that bullish sentiment towards Bitcoin often translates into gains for MSTR. If Bitcoin experiences another bull run, as some analysts predict, MicroStrategy's stock could follow suit, especially given its aggressive Bitcoin acquisition strategy.
Leverage and Bitcoin Yield: MicroStrategy's use of leverage to increase its Bitcoin per share (BTC Yield) is another factor. By selling shares at a premium over net asset value (NAV) and using the proceeds to buy more Bitcoin, the company can reduce leverage while increasing its Bitcoin holdings per share, which could drive stock price appreciation. This strategy is highlighted in posts on X discussing MicroStrategy's unique approach to Bitcoin investment.
Institutional Adoption of Bitcoin: If larger institutions or even governments start adopting Bitcoin as part of their reserves or investment strategy, this could elevate Bitcoin's price, directly benefiting MicroStrategy. There's mention of possible U.S. government involvement with Bitcoin, which could further fuel this scenario.
MICROSTRATEGY a pyramid ponzi.Understanding the situation with MSTR can be quite complex.
Many people recognize that MicroStrategy has been issuing convertible bonds at a 0% interest rate to purchase Bitcoin. This strategy tends to drive up both Bitcoin's price and the value of MSTR shares.
As a result, the scheme appears to inflate continuously, placing the risk on bondholders. The only way for MSTR's stock price to keep rising is through the issuance of increasingly larger amounts of convertible debt; otherwise, the entire pyramid would collapse.
It's understandable why Michael Saylor seems to be focusing more on shilling MSTR bonds instead of Bitcoin itself.
Why would institutions invest in MSTR's convertible bonds at 0%?
Many believe it's because they anticipate being able to convert these bonds into MSTR stock in five years at a predetermined price, potentially around $675, effectively giving them a premium-free call option. However, there is a hidden cost to this strategy: inflation. At first glance, this might seem like a poor investment choice—if one expects MSTR's value to rise, it would make more sense to buy the shares now rather than commit funds to a higher price in the future.
Why would anyone engage in such a massive financial manoeuvre involving BILLIONS?
The truth is, those purchasing the bonds are ACTUALLY indifferent to the rising stock value! Their primary interest lies in capitalizing on price fluctuations. Ultimately, a convertible bond functions as a CALL OPTION; thus, as the MSTR stock price experiences greater volatility, the premium on the call increases. Recently the value of these convertible bonds has surged by 170%. This is precisely why investors are unconcerned about interest rates or the actual conversion of the bonds—they have ZERO desire to convert! The reason? Issuing new shares would only dilute their holdings!
All the rewards with none of the risks!
But what happens if MSTR collapses? Bondholders will seize all the Bitcoin MSTR possesses, leaving shareholders with nothing but scraps!
Can you fathom how deep this MSTR Ponzi scheme really is?
The more you explore, the more mental acrobatics you need to perform to grasp the situation!
Many believe that bond buyers are naive, but in reality, they are the sharpest players in the game, reaping the benefits without facing the risks! In the current climate, that’s the nature of volatility! It doesn’t matter if MSTR’s stock price fluctuates; they’re insulated from the fallout. Who do you think is betting against MSTR? It’s the bondholders, and their positions are secure!
Ultimately, for someone to profit, someone else must incur a loss, and it won’t be the bondholders. This means that regular shareholders are poised for significant losses, as the primary force driving MSTR’s stock price is its own volatility. Once that volatility dissipates, we could see MSTR plummet below $100 a share! All those crypto enthusiasts will be left reeling, wondering how MSTR could possibly decline while Bitcoin’s value rises!!!
What’s the main effect of these convertible bonds?
They create volatility in the stock price, leading to wild swings up and down, just as we’re currently witnessing.
What occurs when the volatility subsides?
The stock price will plummet!
Many people are misdirecting their focus on metrics, technical analysis, and listening to Michael Saylor's commentary on CNBC. Instead, they should be paying attention to the volatility of MSTR's stock price, as its decline will directly impact the stock's value.
Don't be misled; even if MSTR falls below $300, it will still be overpriced and could potentially drop to under $100 per share due to the convertible bonds scheme. Claims from MSTR valuation sites that each share is backed by a certain amount of Bitcoin are misleading; the reality is that the shares are not backed by anything.
The BONDHOLDERS are the ones who possess all the Bitcoin.
There’s no such thing as a free lunch—someone has to bear the costs, and in MSTR's case, that burden will fall on the shareholders. You certainly don’t want to be left holding the bag when the music stops.
It is important to maintain a clear perspective regarding cryptocurrencies; they should not be viewed as traditional investments, but rather as something more comparable to gambling.
While you may have the advantage of being an expert poker player, the only way to truly win is to cash out your profits.
Otherwise, you risk losing on MSTR and in the crypto market.
Market Analysis: How to. Execute This Trade // MSTRNASDAQ:MSTR
Over the past 2-3 months, MicroStrategy Incorporated (MSTR) has shown significant growth, primarily driven by the rise in Bitcoin’s value. The company holds a substantial amount of Bitcoin on its balance sheet, which strongly influences its stock price performance.
Key Highlights:
1. Stock Performance:
• As of now, MSTR trades at $379.09, reflecting a notable increase over recent months.
• Its strong performance correlates with the upward trend in Bitcoin prices.
2. Technical Analysis:
• The stock recently broke out of a rectangle pattern, signaling a potential rise toward
the $525 level.
• However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates overbought conditions,
suggesting the possibility of a short-term pullback.
3. Analyst Opinions:
• Analysts remain optimistic, with a consensus of “Buy” or “Overweight.”
• The average price target is above the current trading level, pointing to further upside
potential.
Considerations:
While MSTR has been performing robustly, it’s important to note the volatility associated with its heavy exposure to Bitcoin. Investors should weigh the risks tied to both the stock and the broader cryptocurrency market.
How to execute this trade:
We notice how the upward trend seems to have temporarily stopped, giving way to a bearish phase. The stock remains highly overvalued and very volatile, so a drop of 40–50% does not necessarily indicate a long-term trend reversal but simply a pause in a bull run that has been ongoing since 2022!
On November 11, the stock experienced a rise of 23% in a single day, leaving a gap open.
Subsequently, the rise was accompanied by a 97% increase in just 13 days, followed by a bearish phase, a lateral phase, another bearish phase, and now a rebound. We could even consider the last two movements as a new lateral zone.
Now, let’s analyze the movements of the stock in the most recent highlighted period in greater detail.
We observe that, after breaking below the lateral range, the stock formed a well-defined downward channel. We obviously had two choices: to take advantage of the lateral zone by going both long and short:
Respectively: 430–450 Short & 360–350 Long. However, this was a rather complex trade because the lateral range was very wide and volatile (34%).
The second option was to wait for a long entry. The gap in this case is an excellent buying zone; in many cases, gaps need to be filled, and when this happens, they provide great opportunities. In this particular case, we are talking about a gap that triggered a 97% rise, so the chances of a rebound are very high.
Using the Bar Replay, we see that initially the stock approaches our entry zone but doesn’t enter, closing slightly above it.
This means we need to remain vigilant in the following days and monitor for a good entry opportunity.
The next day, the stock rises by 8%—our hopes for a trade begin to waver, and we risk succumbing to FOMO. However, the only way to be consistently profitable is to always follow the plan. Always!
Later, the stock drops, granting us an entry. In hindsight, it’s easy to say, “I would have entered here,” but this would have been a challenging trade because the gap was only partially filled and for a short time. A correct entry should have been between 286 and 276.
We notice that the entry was very difficult and quick—so let’s assume we didn’t manage to enter . The next day, the stock opens with a significant upward gap (3.4%).
At this point, we have two signals: the stock touched our zone and began to rise, and the buying zone was a previous gap. Now, the stock opens again with a gap, signaling that these opportunities are often leveraged to push the stock upward.
We adjust our entry a bit higher, giving the trade more room to breathe since the previous setup didn’t work out.
In this case, we carefully observe the downward trendline above us and use it as a signal to exit the trade or reduce the position size to limit losses. If it’s not broken, we know what to do.
We let the trade run and see how the trendline is broken, followed by a very strong upward move that brings us to profit in just two sessions.
This is “How to Execute This Trade.”
Microstrategy likely to $20 soonI see Microstrategy pushing up to hit the above TL soon.
There is likely a push higher because of the incoming US president.
Entry: $333
Stop loss: $322
TP1 : $360
Dont risk all your equity for one trade this year. Be a risk manager.
Big Bets Coming In, Negative Gamma Clusters Here We Come!I have been waiting to call this one for months. Predicted the downfall of MSTR and now I want a dead cat bounce or short term rally again.
After large positions and option contract plays are placed/bought, it can take time for the bottom to form and the price to move. I can see potential downside to $290-$289 and then we bounce ORRRRRR if we break through 290-289 with strong downside, next target is $262.
IF WE LOSE 290, its very very bad for the stock longer term.
First target is $320
Second target is $340
