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MSTR trade ideas

Microstrategy is the most astonishing chart I've ever seenThis is the 3 month chart going back about 25 years. MSTR peaked in March 2000 at $333. It's formed a 24 year cup and handle that broke out earlier this year from the $333 cup top. When you clone the cup depth on a log chart and add it to the cup top it gives a long term astonishing price target over $42000. For 2025 I'm not expecting that target. It could get their in the next Bitcoin cycle in 2029, however. I've tracked MSTR and Bitcoin prices since Microstrategy started their Bitcoin acquisition program in August 2020. Since that date it has acted as 2 fold price leverage to the Bitcoin price gain to the present. It has acted in the last two years as 3 fold leverage to the Bitcoin price as its relentless purchasing of Bitcoin is now 423,000 for about $25.4 B or about a $60000 DCA. Current profit on these Bitcoin at the current $100,000 price is $16.9 B. Microstrategy is expected to be included in the Nasdaq 100 on Dec 23, 2024. The announcement is expected tomorrow. A massive number of ETF's are tracking this announcement and are expected to pump billions into MSTR stock over time. If BTC goes to $500K by May 2025 and trips the pi cycle top indicator again then it will have gained 400% from the present. 3 fold leverage to the BTC 400% gain would be 1200% gain from the $393 current price or 13 x $393 = about $5100. I am biased; I recently purchased MSTR stock as a leverage play on the Bitcoin price.
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by shubbs
5
Master AccumulationWyckoff Spring: This setup is like the stock market's own version of a magic trick. It's when the stock price dips into a "zone of support" (the lower purple area) and then springs back up, suggesting that the price might be about to take off. It's the financial equivalent of watching a diving board bend before someone launches themselves into the air. The Phases: Wyckoff Phase A (Preliminary Supply): Here, the stock is like a balloon being filled with air, showing initial resistance before it pops into action. This is where accumulation starts. Wyckoff Phase B (Secondary Test): This phase is like the balloon being squeezed and released repeatedly to see how much pressure it can take. The stock tests the waters, going back to the support and resistance zones. Wyckoff Phase C (Spring): The critical moment, like when the balloon almost touches the ground but doesn't pop. The stock dips into the support zone but then springs back, indicating a potential upward move. Wyckoff Phase D (Upward Movement): Finally, like a balloon released into the sky, the stock price starts to ascend, signaling it's time for the bulls to take over. Zones of Support and Resistance: These are like the invisible walls that the stock price bounces off. The "Zone of Support" (bottom purple area) is where sellers might hesitate, and the "Zone of Resistance" (top purple area) is where buyers might pause. The Five Points on the Chart: Each numbered point represents key moments in the Wyckoff setup, from the initial dip, tests, the spring, and the eventual break upwards. It's like marking the chapters in an epic saga of price movements. The Trend: After the spring, if the stock breaks through the resistance, it's like the hero overcoming the final obstacle, signaling a new trend might be starting. In essence, this chart is like watching a financial ballet, where each move is calculated, each step deliberate, aiming towards a grand finale of price movement. For traders, recognizing these patterns is like having a backstage pass to the market's next big act. Remember, in the stock market, as in life, the spring is the thing that precedes the leap!
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by globulltrader
Reconsider Your Position: MSTR Faces Significant Volatility Ahea - Recent Performance: MicroStrategy has seen its stock price crash approximately 45% from prior highs of $548 to around $300, aligning closely with Bitcoin's erratic behavior. This substantial drop raises questions about the company's future, viability, and its heavily criticized Bitcoin accumulation strategy. The stock's volatility underscores its correlation with cryptocurrency market fluctuations, making it essential for investors to keep track of Bitcoin trends. - Key Insights: Investors should approach MicroStrategy with caution amidst this turbulent phase. The aggressive use of debt to fund Bitcoin purchases raises significant risk concerns, as continued declines in Bitcoin could drastically impact MSTR's share price. The recent lapse in enthusiasm surrounding the company indicates a shift in market sentiment that may prove detrimental unless there's a recovery in Bitcoin prices. - Expert Analysis: Experts appear to be developing a bearish outlook on MicroStrategy, with growing skepticism regarding its investment strategy and financial stability. The risk has been compared to a potential Ponzi scheme, reinforcing the notion that deeper price drops in Bitcoin could lead to catastrophic consequences for MSTR, driving its stock lower than the current valuation. - Price Targets: For the upcoming week, traders should consider the following: - Next week targets: - T1: $320 - T2: $340 - Stop levels: - S1: $290 - S2: $250 - News Impact: Recent speculation that MicroStrategy may suspend Bitcoin acquisitions could weigh negatively on its market momentum. Potential restrictions on share transactions or debt financing could further strain the company's operational strategy and market positioning. Observations on Bitcoin's pricing dynamics will be crucial as MicroStrategy navigates this volatile landscape; thus, investors should stay informed on developments to align their strategies with market conditions. In conclusion, MicroStrategy presents a precarious investment landscape primarily dictated by the performance of Bitcoin. Given the inherent risks involved, thorough evaluation and vigilance are essential when contemplating any trading actions concerning MSTR.
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by CrowdWisdomTrading
NSTR - Technical Analysis of Key Bullish and Bearish LevelsKey Observations: Expanded Volume Profile: The volume profile on the left indicates significant trading activity (support/resistance zones). The high-volume node around 360–380 suggests a key area of interest where the price might consolidate or face resistance/support. Bullish Levels: Bullish Week (376): A breakout above this level could trigger upward momentum toward 400 and potentially higher. Close Week Swing (363): Currently being tested. Sustained strength above this level would be a sign of bullish continuation. Key Target at 400: Bullish swing level acting as a psychological and technical resistance point. Bearish Levels: Bear Swing (348): A breakdown below this level could lead to further downside, with the next support at Bear Week (325). Week ATR (328): If the price approaches this level, it signals a deeper bearish sentiment. Price Action: The yellow line shows a recovery attempt after a sharp drop. The price appears to be testing resistance at Close Week Swing (363). The upward trend from lower levels near 325 suggests some buying interest at lower prices. Annotations and Targets: Close Week Swing (363) is pivotal; crossing this level with volume might lead to a test of higher resistance levels. The area around 325–328 has shown strong support previously, and a retest might attract buyers. Analysis: Bullish Scenario: The price needs to decisively close above 363 to gain bullish momentum. If this happens, look for targets at 376 and then 400. Volume supporting an upward move would confirm bullish sentiment. The Bullish Week (376) level is critical for mid-term trend confirmation. Bearish Scenario: Failure to hold above 363 could lead to a retest of 348 (Bear Swing) and possibly further downward moves toward 325–328. Increased volume at lower levels might indicate bearish control. Neutral Scenario: Consolidation between 348 and 363 could signal indecision, with a breakout or breakdown likely depending on market sentiment. Recommendations: For Bullish Traders: Look for strong volume above 363 and consider targets at 376 and 400. Watch for consolidation near 360–363 as a possible entry point. For Bearish Traders: A rejection at 363 or a breakdown below 348 would signal opportunities to target 325–328. Use volume and candlestick patterns to confirm breakdowns. Risk Management: Stops should be placed slightly beyond key levels (e.g., above 376 for shorts or below 348 for longs). This setup emphasizes the importance of the 363 level as a tipping point for direction. Let me know if you'd like further insights!
NASDAQ:MSTR
by peteramner
Why MSTR Could Hit $350 by April 2025Why MSTR Could Hit $350 by April 2025 MicroStrategy (MSTR) has positioned itself uniquely in the financial landscape by heavily investing in Bitcoin, making it not just a tech firm but also a significant player in the cryptocurrency space. Here's why MSTR might reach $350 by April 2025: Bitcoin's Performance and MicroStrategy's Strategy: Bitcoin has been on an upward trajectory, with recent spikes fueled by events like political developments (e.g., Trump's crypto-friendly stance). If Bitcoin continues this trend or even surpasses expectations, MSTR's stock, which acts almost as a leveraged bet on Bitcoin, could see substantial gains. Analysts have noted a strong positive correlation between Bitcoin's price and MSTR's stock value, sometimes suggesting a premium on MSTR due to its Bitcoin strategy. MicroStrategy's Bold Bitcoin Acquisition: Recent posts on X have highlighted MicroStrategy's commitment to the biggest Bitcoin buy ever at $42B. This aggressive accumulation could signal to investors that MSTR believes in a significant future value increase for Bitcoin, thereby potentially boosting investor confidence in MSTR shares. Market Sentiment and Institutional Interest: There's growing institutional interest in Bitcoin, which benefits companies like MicroStrategy. For instance, South Korea’s National Pension Service's investment in MSTR indicates a broader acceptance of crypto through established companies. Such moves could lead to increased demand for MSTR stock, pushing its price higher. Inclusion in Major Indices: Discussions around MSTR's potential inclusion in major indices like the S&P 500 could significantly boost its stock price. If MSTR becomes eligible for such an index due to its market cap or liquidity, it would attract more institutional investors, driving the price up. Earnings and Accounting Changes: With the adoption of new accounting standards allowing for digital assets to be measured at fair value, MSTR could report more favorable earnings. This could lead to a re-rating of the stock as the market recognizes the true value of its Bitcoin holdings, potentially pushing the stock towards the $350 mark or beyond. Bullish Predictions and Analyst Upgrades: Analysts from various platforms have shown optimism, with some forecasts indicating that MSTR could trade between $175.94 and $310.25 by 2025. While these aren't exact to $350, the sentiment is clear: there's an expectation of significant growth. Supply Shock from Bitcoin Halving: The Bitcoin halving event, which reduces the reward for mining new blocks, historically impacts Bitcoin's price positively due to the reduced supply growth rate. If this event leads to a substantial Bitcoin price increase, MSTR's stock should follow suit. Macro-Economic Environment: If the global economic environment continues to favor alternative investments like cryptocurrencies, MSTR, with its Bitcoin strategy, stands to benefit. Lower interest rates or inflation fears might drive more capital towards assets like Bitcoin, indirectly benefiting MSTR.
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by NYRUNSGLOBAL
MicroStrategy Poised for Breakout NASDAQ:MSTR Today, I’d like to share my current perspective on the price action of MicroStrategy Inc. (MSTR). The data and technical indicators on the daily chart suggest a bullish scenario is unfolding. Let’s break down the analysis. Technical Setup 1. Symmetrical Triangle: The price action has formed a symmetrical triangle, with a potential breakout to the upside. This formation often signals a continuation of the trend when combined with supporting indicators. 2. Oversold Conditions: Indicators such as MACD and Stochastic Oscillator show the stock emerging from oversold territory, which supports the likelihood of an upward breakout. 3. Double Bottom Pattern: A clear double bottom pattern is forming, indicating a potential reversal of the recent 40% correction from the high reached on November 21, 2024. Key Price Levels • Current Price: Around $400. • Breakout Target 1: $550. • Breakout Target 2: If the breakout sustains momentum, the price could reach $700. Entry Strategy: • Buying at current levels ($400) appears reasonable, given the technical signals. • Place stop-loss orders according to your risk tolerance to protect capital. Bitcoin Correlation Given MicroStrategy’s substantial Bitcoin holdings, it’s essential to note the formation of an ascending triangle on the Bitcoin chart, which suggests a continued rally. This correlation adds further confluence to the bullish outlook for MSTR. Catalysts There are also market rumors that on Friday, November 13, MSTR might be included in the Nasdaq Index. If confirmed, this event could serve as a strong catalyst for upward momentum in the stock price. Conclusion: The combination of a symmetrical triangle breakout, oversold conditions, a double bottom pattern, and potential macro catalysts presents a compelling case for a bullish move. Disclaimer: This analysis reflects my personal opinion and is provided for informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice or an investment recommendation.
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by NORD25
MICROSTRATEGY a pyramid ponzi.Understanding the situation with MSTR can be quite complex. Many people recognize that MicroStrategy has been issuing convertible bonds at a 0% interest rate to purchase Bitcoin. This strategy tends to drive up both Bitcoin's price and the value of MSTR shares. As a result, the scheme appears to inflate continuously, placing the risk on bondholders. The only way for MSTR's stock price to keep rising is through the issuance of increasingly larger amounts of convertible debt; otherwise, the entire pyramid would collapse. It's understandable why Michael Saylor seems to be focusing more on shilling MSTR bonds instead of Bitcoin itself. Why would institutions invest in MSTR's convertible bonds at 0%? Many believe it's because they anticipate being able to convert these bonds into MSTR stock in five years at a predetermined price, potentially around $675, effectively giving them a premium-free call option. However, there is a hidden cost to this strategy: inflation. At first glance, this might seem like a poor investment choice—if one expects MSTR's value to rise, it would make more sense to buy the shares now rather than commit funds to a higher price in the future. Why would anyone engage in such a massive financial manoeuvre involving BILLIONS? The truth is, those purchasing the bonds are ACTUALLY indifferent to the rising stock value! Their primary interest lies in capitalizing on price fluctuations. Ultimately, a convertible bond functions as a CALL OPTION; thus, as the MSTR stock price experiences greater volatility, the premium on the call increases. Recently the value of these convertible bonds has surged by 170%. This is precisely why investors are unconcerned about interest rates or the actual conversion of the bonds—they have ZERO desire to convert! The reason? Issuing new shares would only dilute their holdings! All the rewards with none of the risks! But what happens if MSTR collapses? Bondholders will seize all the Bitcoin MSTR possesses, leaving shareholders with nothing but scraps! Can you fathom how deep this MSTR Ponzi scheme really is? The more you explore, the more mental acrobatics you need to perform to grasp the situation! Many believe that bond buyers are naive, but in reality, they are the sharpest players in the game, reaping the benefits without facing the risks! In the current climate, that’s the nature of volatility! It doesn’t matter if MSTR’s stock price fluctuates; they’re insulated from the fallout. Who do you think is betting against MSTR? It’s the bondholders, and their positions are secure! Ultimately, for someone to profit, someone else must incur a loss, and it won’t be the bondholders. This means that regular shareholders are poised for significant losses, as the primary force driving MSTR’s stock price is its own volatility. Once that volatility dissipates, we could see MSTR plummet below $100 a share! All those crypto enthusiasts will be left reeling, wondering how MSTR could possibly decline while Bitcoin’s value rises!!! What’s the main effect of these convertible bonds? They create volatility in the stock price, leading to wild swings up and down, just as we’re currently witnessing. What occurs when the volatility subsides? The stock price will plummet! Many people are misdirecting their focus on metrics, technical analysis, and listening to Michael Saylor's commentary on CNBC. Instead, they should be paying attention to the volatility of MSTR's stock price, as its decline will directly impact the stock's value. Don't be misled; even if MSTR falls below $300, it will still be overpriced and could potentially drop to under $100 per share due to the convertible bonds scheme. Claims from MSTR valuation sites that each share is backed by a certain amount of Bitcoin are misleading; the reality is that the shares are not backed by anything. The BONDHOLDERS are the ones who possess all the Bitcoin. There’s no such thing as a free lunch—someone has to bear the costs, and in MSTR's case, that burden will fall on the shareholders. You certainly don’t want to be left holding the bag when the music stops. It is important to maintain a clear perspective regarding cryptocurrencies; they should not be viewed as traditional investments, but rather as something more comparable to gambling. While you may have the advantage of being an expert poker player, the only way to truly win is to cash out your profits. Otherwise, you risk losing on MSTR and in the crypto market.
NASDAQ:MSTR
by BallaJi
24
The Case for a 76% drop on MSTR: Norms of fib levels in a trend.If you draw a fib from the high to the low of the 2022 drop in MSTR, you'll see we have now completed all of the fibs of this swing. In this post we're going to take a detailed look at two things; 1 - How a trend typically forms heading into a 4.23 extension. 2 - What typically happens at 4.23 extensions. Everything we cover here will be generic rules for trend development. It's equally valid on bull and bear moves (we'll use examples of both) and it can be used on any timeframe. We're going to stick to big charts for this but these same concepts also scale down to day trading. We are going to look at these specific hypothesis'; 1.27 - 1.61 will produce some sort of pullback. The breaking of 1.61 will produce a steady trend to at least 2.20. Around 2.20 - 2.61 there will be some sort of reaction. The move from 2.61 to 4.23 is very strong. 4.23s can mark the end of major moves. These conditions in MSTR are marked into the chart pic. Let me show you another example on a bear trend to get us started. This was the last bull swing before the 2007-2008 reversal. We're using the topping swing for our fib. We can draw this really early as soon as we see the first possible break. We drop to the 1.61 and then we bounce. It looks like a recovery in real time. Then once the 1.61 is broken we drop quickly to the 2.20. Look closely here. The move to the 2.20 isn't the big red candle. There's a wick. That tells us this was a flash event. Crashed to the support, rapid bear trap. Filling our conditions of the expectations of a 1.61 break and the reaction 2.20. The wick candle pullback went to around 1.61 and then there was capitulation when the 2.61 was broken. We get to the the Final Boss of the fibs. The 4.23. There's a head fake under it and then a recovery back over it. And the 2008 crash is over. Want another one? Here's BB. The pattern expressed over a very long time. Full booms and bust. Saw a lot of these patterns in 2021. Imagine if you could have used the same playbook we can observe on the all time BB chart and used the same set of rules to understand all the key parts of the 2021 trend. That'd be weird. Attached is a pic of the real time 2021 mention of fading the BB rally at the 4.23 (just to show this isn't just perfect fitting after the fact). Let's jump back to another low. Here was the BTC low. Or a bull one. What Happens at 4.23 Fibs? Most of the time when 4.23 fibs are hit there is a large correction or a full blown reversal. Cases of 4.23's breaking without retesting the 1.61 - 1.27 (and that's a crash, big move) are rarer. In the times there is a 4.23 breakout, the following trend is usually exceptional. When looking at big instances of failed 4.23s they're usually found around the middle of a bubble or crash (depending on if it's a bull or bear break). It's much more difficult to show examples of the failed ones without being able to zoom in and out a lot, but you can look for them in places like the Nasdaq bubble, NVDA rally and in failure points of uptrends heading into crashes. Almost invariably, the trend goes into a state of hyper performance if the 4.23 is broken. However, if it is not broken - then we're usually going to ultimately end up spiking out the 1.27 fib. Which round trips most of the move. If MSTR is a 4.23 blow off, it's give up most of the gains of the recent rally. That is inside of the bullish perspective. The correction comes to 1.27. If 1.27 fails, then you can end up with that lifetime BB chart. Action around the 4.23 itself is fraught with caveats when it comes to actionable trading. You have to always have the assumption that if you're wrong you're going to be betting against a punishing trend and you have to be risk cautious and quick to get out / plan new levels. It always has to be remembered if wrong, the fade will fail spectacularly. Further complicating things is we really can't be sure what sort of 4.23 head fake we're going to get. There are times we reverse right at the 4.23. Or come up a bit shy of it. Other times we make a nominal head fake that you could have started betting against almost as soon as it got passed the level and it went nothing but well for you. Then there are the super blow offs. BB was somewhere in the range of 20 - 25% blow off. I remember this well (I'd shorted the 4.23 touch) it only lasted an exceptionally brief amount of time and was ultimately the Mother of all wicks but if I'd be fully exposed to all that price move - wouldn't have mattered. I'd probably have got nailed before it. When it comes to the actual tactical betting on a 4.23 reversal, it's tricky. The core underlying theory of the 4.23 decision is a simple binary one though. Usually when the 4.23 is hit we're going to head into hyper trend conditions. These can be higher (and this is hard to quantify targets for with fibs) or they can be crashes (which we can usually roadmap with the 1.61 - 2.20 - 4.23 thing). Extremely polarizing level here. Either all fib bases bear cases are entirely annulled for the foreseeable future or a drop of about 75% is setting up. The 4.23 pullback/reversal is the far more common outcome. ==== Bonus doom posting:
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by holeyprofit
16
MSTR starter long off low 370smajor confluences at this level include: - top of daily uptrend channel from september - several large clusters of institutional prints from late november which will need to be tested - 1hr 325 SMA - 1hr liquidity zone will be grabbing shares only at 33% allocation. if price fails this region will add another 33% at low 350s which is the middle of that channel and #13 ranked institutional print since inception. final 33% will be added at low 340s which is a strong local low and the #2 ranked institutional print of all time for MSTR.
NASDAQ:MSTR
by soulunveiled
4