MSTX trade ideas
MSTX โ Defiance Daily Target 2x Long MSTR ETF โ 30-Min Long!๐๐
๐น Asset: MSTX (NASDAQ)
๐น Timeframe: 30-Min Chart
๐น Setup Type: Bullish Breakout from Ascending Triangle / Wedge Pattern
๐ Trade Plan (Long Position)
โ
Entry Zone: Above $35.84 (Confirmed breakout level)
โ
Stop-Loss (SL): Below $32.18 (Wedge base & structure support)
๐ฏ Take Profit Targets:
๐ TP1: $39.58 (Major resistance zone)
๐ TP2: $44.77 (Extended target from pattern projection)
๐ Risk-Reward Ratio Calculation:
๐ Risk (SL Distance):
$35.84 - $32.18 = $3.66 risk per share
๐ Reward to TP1:
$39.58 - $35.84 = $3.74 (1.02:1 R/R)
๐ Reward to TP2:
$44.77 - $35.84 = $8.93 (2.44:1 R/R)
๐ Technical Analysis & Strategy
๐ Ascending Wedge Breakout: Price broke resistance of tightening structure โ bullish signal.
๐ Momentum Shift: Big green candles and volume spike indicate buyer strength.
๐ Retest Opportunity: Entry near $35.84 is ideal as price retests breakout zone.
๐ Clear Resistance Zones Above: Targets marked at key historical levels for precision.
โ๏ธ Trade Execution & Risk Management
๐ Volume Confirmation: Make sure bullish volume sustains above $35.84.
๐ Trailing Stop Strategy: Once TP1 ($39.58) is hit, move SL to entry ($35.84) to lock in gains.
๐ฐ Partial Profit Booking Strategy
โ Book 50% of profits at TP1 ($39.58)
โ Let remaining ride to TP2 ($44.77)
โ Adjust stop-loss to breakeven or higher after TP1
โ ๏ธ Breakout Failure Risk
โ Do not enter if price closes back below $35.84
โ Close position if $32.18 is broken โ setup is invalid
๐ Final Thoughts
โ Strong breakout setup with healthy volume confirmation
โ Clear bullish structure with great follow-through potential
โ High-probability trade offering 2.44:1 R/R to TP2 โ manage smartly!
๐ #MSTX #NASDAQ #LongTrade #ETFTrading #BreakoutSetup #ProfittoPath ๐๐ก
NextDecade Corporation (NEXT) โ 30-Min Short Trade Setup !๐๐จ
๐น Asset: NextDecade Corporation (NEXT โ NASDAQ)
๐น Timeframe: 30-Min Chart
๐น Setup Type: Rising Trendline Break Breakdown & Rejection at Resistance
๐ Trade Plan (Short Position)
โ
Entry Zone: Below $9.42 (Breakdown Confirmation)
โ
Stop-Loss (SL): Above $9.78 (Trendline & Resistance Confluence)
๐ฏ Take Profit Target:
๐ TP1: $9.01 (Key Support Zone)
๐ TP2: $8.48 (Prior Consolidation Zone)
๐ Risk-Reward Ratio Calculation:
๐ Risk (SL Distance):
$9.78 - $9.42 = $0.36 risk per share
๐ Reward to TP1:
$9.42 - $9.01 = $0.41 (1:1.13 R/R)
๐ Reward to TP2:
$9.42 - $8.48 = $0.94 (1:2.61 R/R)
๐ Technical Analysis & Strategy
๐ Rising Wedge Breakdown: Price is testing support trendline, potentially failing breakout attempt.
๐ Rejection at $9.78: Multiple rejections near resistance zone signal seller strength.
๐ Bearish Candlestick Confirmation: Wait for 30-min candle close below $9.42 with volume.
๐ Break of Structure Below $9.01: Opens door to deeper pullback toward $8.48.
โ๏ธ Trade Execution & Risk Management
๐ Volume Confirmation: Look for increasing sell volume under $9.42.
๐ Trailing Stop Strategy: Move SL to $9.42 (entry) after TP1 ($9.01) is reached.
๐ฐ Partial Profit Booking Strategy:
โ Take 50% off at TP1 ($9.01), let rest run to TP2 ($8.48).
โ Adjust SL to break-even ($9.42) after TP1 is hit.
โ ๏ธ Breakdown Failure Risk
โ If price bounces back above $9.42 with strength, exit early.
โ No entry unless candle closes below trendline.
๐จ Final Thoughts
โ Clean short setup โ Breakdown of ascending support
โ Good R/R potential toward TP2
โ Be patient โ Confirm volume & close below $9.42 before entry
๐ #NEXT #NASDAQ #ShortTrade #SwingTrading #ProfittoPath ๐๐
MSTX: The Setup for a Major MoveHey!
Currently, MSTX is exhibiting bullish structural development, aligning with what could be a textbook re-accumulation phase ahead of a major move to the upside. Looking for price to break above $64.40 with Volume and Strength. All up to BTC of course.
Key Technical Signals:
The bottom of the current structure exhibits a converging IHS (Inverse Head & Shoulders) and Double Bottomโa powerful bullish reversal pattern.
Bullish Continuation Divergence confirms hidden strength as price action builds momentum for a breakout.
The macro trend aligns with MSTR and BTC correlations, historically leading to explosive price action when BTC enters an expansion phase.
BTC, MSTR & MSTX Projections Based on Historical Relativity
BTC currently: $96,750
MSTR currently: $327
MSTX currently: $41
If BTC Rises 20% to $116,000
Historically, MSTR moves 3x BTC, meaning MSTR could rise to ~$522.
MSTX, as a 2x leveraged ETF on MSTR, could reach ~$90.
If BTC Reaches $180,000 (~86% Gain)
MSTR, moving 3x BTC, would explode to ~$1,171.
MSTX, moving 2x MSTR, could reach $252.
Factoring in MSTR Share Dilution
MSTRโs ongoing share issuance to buy BTC may introduce slight dilution. MSTR sells shares and uses the capital to buy more BTC. However, historically, BTC's price appreciation has vastly outpaced dilution effects, making MSTR's BTC holdings per share continue to rise significantly over time.
Why This Setup is High Conviction
MSTX provides leveraged exposure, amplifying potential returns.
BTC is already trending towards new highs, increasing probabilities of continuation.
This trade setup has the potential for a 5x move or more if BTC continues its cycle.
Mute the noise. There is technical bullishness in this chart.
Set alerts and stick to a plan.
Thank you for your time and happy trading!
OnePath
Time to buy the dipBrutal amplification through MSTX.
We are entering a sharp growth, which means % will add up quickly, especially with a leveraged ETF.
This is a highly risky bet and when using options, you should ensure at least 3-6 months until expiration.
Also make sure that at the expiration, you have enough liquidity to get more if necessary.
MSTX: The Coiled SpringFollowing MSTX's descent to $60, technical indicators are painting a picture that screams opportunity.
Daily Chart:
Weekly Chart:
The CM_Ult_MaCD has bottomed out completely, and if you've traded long enough, you know what that means - upward momentum is coming, and it's coming fast.
The setup is textbook perfect. We're seeing the Stochastic oscillator flirting with oversold territory, and anyone who's been in this game knows that's when you want to position yourself. It's not just about timing - it's about recognizing the patterns that repeat themselves.
What's really getting my attention is the SQZMOM_LB indicator. Those VIX spikes we're seeing aren't random noise - they're telling us a squeeze is brewing. When this pressure cooker blows, we could see rapid upside movement that'll catch the shorts off guard.
Speaking of shorts, they've shown their hand at the $60 VWAP level. Both daily and weekly charts confirm this sweet spot, and I'm seeing all the signs of a short sweep setting up. This is exactly the kind of technical confluence that precedes significant moves.
I'm anticipating MSTX to first reclaim the $100 level, with potential to test previous highs around $175-200. The short squeeze, when it triggers, could accelerate this movement significantly. Smart money will be watching these levels closely.
The key here is patience.
Let the technicals confirm what we're seeing. When that squeeze triggers - and it will - you'll want to be positioned ahead of the crowd.
Stay tuned for updates as this play develops.
MSTX can quadruple your gains.... or losses Micro-strategy has been on an absolute tear in the last few weeks, rallying several hundreds of percent.
Luckily for those with a large risk appetite , we have an ETF available to us which provides 2x the volatility of MSTR.
This can be a very dangerous play if you do not understand how to manage your risk, so I would advise extreme caution here.
With that being said, it seems like we may be seeing an MSTR pullback here into what may be a potential double bottom zone. If I continue to look for higher price on the stock, as well as Bitcoin, I would like mstx to hold up at the critical zone marked on the chart for continuation of this uptrend. Otherwise, losing this level would be quite bearish for me.
I have a few major indicators which I would like to reference.
1. Previous range value areas, notably the value area high respected before we saw the massive pump and dump.
2. Gap up zone and previous value area low should hold up if we expect continuation to the upside.
3. Trend based fib extension providing me with a potential zone for the corrective move and where it may end in confluence with the POC and VAL.
Lets see how this one plays out.
MSTX T Minus 10.9.8. Dropping like a 100lb weight
Bear Put Spread Strategy for MSTX
Current Price: US$91.55
Signal: Neutral with a slight bearish bias due to mixed technical indicators.
Leg 1:
Buy/Sell: Buy
Call/Put: Put
Strike Price: US$90.00
Expiry Date: 13-Dec-2024
Premium: US$1.23
Implied Volatility: 2.13%
Stop Loss: US$1.10
Take Profit: US$1.35
Leg 2:
Buy/Sell: Sell
Call/Put: Put
Strike Price: US$80.00
Expiry Date: 13-Dec-2024
Premium: US$0.43
Implied Volatility: 2.43%
Stop Loss: US$0.38
Take Profit: US$0.47
Probability of Profit: Approximately 57.9%
Rationale: The technical analysis of MSTX reveals a mixed outlook. Oscillators indicate a predominantly neutral stance, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) being unavailable, while the Stochastic RSI and Stochastic Oscillator suggest holding positions. The Average Directional Index (ADX) at 31.63 indicates a potential trend, recommending a buy. However, momentum indicators like the MACD and Momentum Indicator signal selling pressure. Moving averages present a conflicting picture, with short-term averages (10 and 20) indicating sell signals, while longer-term averages (30 and 50) suggest buying. The Ichimoku Cloud also indicates a buy signal, suggesting potential upward movement. Overall, the mixed signals suggest caution, leaning towards a hold recommendation with a slight bullish bias due to the ADX and longer-term moving averages.
Catalyst: No specific catalyst identified, but the mixed technical indicators suggest potential volatility.
This strategy aims to capitalize on a potential decline in MSTX's price, while limiting risk through the spread.
SHORT MSTXSHORT MSTX - High-Probability Setup
I'm sharing my analysis on MSTX with a short position in mind, leveraging a calculated risk/reward approach. Here's the breakdown of my thought process:
Technical Overview
Current Price: $101.53
Stop Loss: $118.14 (16.75% risk)
Target Price: $62.28 (38.45% reward)
Risk/Reward Ratio: 2.3
Key Indicators & Analysis
Bollinger Bands: The price is showing volatility contraction, which often precedes significant price movement.
Moving Averages: The red MA suggests bearish momentum aligning with a trend reversal.
Volume Profile: A spike in volume near recent highs indicates selling pressure.
Reasoning
This trade is based on the hypothesis of a potential breakdown below the $100 psychological support. Given the steep climb followed by a pullback, there is a strong probability of further downside toward the $60-$62 zone, where previous support lies.
The stop loss at $118 accounts for a potential false breakout, while the target ensures a favorable reward relative to the risk taken.
Let me know your thoughts or if you see other opportunities in MSTX! Always open to feedback and discussion. Happy trading!