Nasdaq Intraday Review - Thursday 2 Jan 2025I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 5:30 am GMT (00:30 am EST)
Economic news - Initial jobless claims @ 13:30
News - None
Directional bias - Not sure, will decide after analysis
Morning analysis:
M TF - Doji formed on the M TF, with a long upper wick of 11'636 pips. This indicates that bulls may have run out of steam to push price higher. Sellers may be entering the market at this point. So price could either be stalling at this level and then push through upwards, or bears may take control at this level and push price down. Price action on the lower timeframes will answer that question.
W TF - DT has formed and price is currently below the neckline. The candle for this week has not closed yet and so we don't know for sure if neckline is in fact broken downwards (can only reach this conclusion once the candle is closed). But either way, price is very bearish, with sellers currently holding price below neckline. Also have a temporary uptrend line on W TF seemingly broken downwards (again can't know for sure until this weeks candle closes).
D TF - I interpret the chart to indicate a massive DT with the neckline broken downwards. So I see very bearish price action. The Day candles have closed below the weekly DT neckline for 2 days in a row - very bearish. But in the early morning trading of today, price spiked down low and bulls have managed to fight back and push price higher (at time of writing). So maybe the W 0.618 level is holding strong.
4H TF - Bulls have pushed past the 4H 0.382 and 0.50 fib levels and price now at the 4H 0.618 fib level. This indicates that bulls have found strength. Also we have a small dojiísh green candle, followed by a gap up and the a long wick bullish green candle that has a body that is much larger than the previous candle. This indicates that bulls are (so far) building momentum upwards, even after a strong bearish push down (the long wick). However, price is at a very strong S&R zone (as indicated by the red highlight), so it remains to be seen if bulls can break this resistance zone.
1H TF - Early this morning there was a DB formed right at the W 0.618 level. If I was awake then, I definitely would have taken that buy. Price moved up and broke the pivot point + the 30min & 1H EMA, indicating that price is very bullish.
Falling wedge pattern noted on the 4H and 1H TF (as marked in blue lines). These tend to break upwards, but can break in either direction.
So the higher TF's are bearish and lower TF's are bullish, meaning we do not have TF confluence (all TF's are not saying the same things).
I have already missed the buy, so I think considering the bearish indications on the higher TF's, today I will look for a sell!
I will wait until the lower TF's are also giving bearish signals and then we will have TF confluence i.e. all TF's giving bearish signals.
If that doesn't happen and price moves up, then I am happy to sit on the sidelines and wait a day or two until Nasdaq direction is clear again.
The 7am 4H candle closed with a candle body bigger than the previous 4H candle. Indicating that bulls are picking up momentum and effectively breaking the 0.618 sell fib level.
As the day progressed:
A nice DT formed at the 4H 0.618 fib level.
Entered a sell at the bottom hand icon - Confirmations:
1. Fib - 4H 0.618 fib
2. Trendline - temp uptrend broken downwards (as marked with the light blue line)
3. Market pattern - DT on 30 min TF with neckline broken down which formed at the top of the falling wedge pattern (i.e. at the downtrend line)
4. S&R - DT formed on strong S&R zone
5. Candle sticks - none
Mental SL placed at the thick pink line, which was above the highest close of the DT peak.
Price moved upwards with strength and momentum and closed a 15min candle above my mental stop and I closed my position - took a loss of 560 pips
Turned out just to be a spike upwards when the 30min candle closed red with a long wick spike sticking up.
Nasdaq can be such a bi@@tch sometimes with it's hectic spikes.
So I re-entered a sell at roughly the some level as my first entry.
Unfortunately for me, price moved up again, because the 1H + 30min EMA provided dynamic support.
I closed my position at the blue arrow, taking another loss of 550 pips.
So that's more than 1'000 pips on a full position size.
This trade would have been higher quality if the 30min and 1H EMA's were broken down too.
Then even though I had identified the red highlighted zone as a strong area of confluence for a sell (4H EMA + D 0.318 + W neckline), I took no action when price got there.
Usually on area's of interest, I would move down to the 5min TF and take a position once a price reversal pattern forms.
However, I am so used to working in a bullish environment that my brain didn't register what to do in a bearish environment.
It sound's dumb because I literally didn't click that I need to take action now. I am not used to applying my strategy in reverse.
So what I should have done is enter a sell again at the squiggly line on the 5min DT. Would have made a few thousand pips.
But would have, could have, should have.
Point is that I didn't take the sell and I do know from the past that I struggle to apply my strategy in reverse.
Lesson: Write actions directly on my chart for bearish biases.
I do take comfort from the fact that my analysis was ultimately correct (at time of writing), I just didnt find the correct entry today.
Out for the day, I like to limit my daily losses to 1'000 pips.
I know I can easily make this up and prefer to live to trade another day than trying to revenge trade.
Hope you had a better 1st day trading than me! :)
The total bullish move for the day was 3'100 pips (at time of posting)
I captured ZEROOOOOOOO % of the total move AAAAAHHHHH :(
Abbreviations:
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
H&S = head & shoulders
EMA = exponential moving average
SL = stop loss
