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Nasdaq Intraday Review - Tuesday 19 Nov 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively Trading in GMT time zone Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you! Did my analysis at +- 5:30 am GMT (00:30 am EST) Economic news - None News - None. Tomorrow is Nvidia Earnings release Directional bias - BUY (read yesterday's post entitled "Nasdaq Intraday Review - Monday 18 Nov 2024" for more insight into today's directional bias and swing trade entry) Yesterday I opened a swing trade at the B. hand icon. My mental stop was placed at the thick pink line. Wow....what a day, what a draw down! But held throughout and I am now 1'300 pips in the profit with a big position and secured at entry i.e. trading risk free. Here's the reasoning for holding and also where I would have entered today if I had not had a swing trade going: Holding swing trade: As is evident from the 1H chart, a huge red candle closed below my mental stop. In normal trading i.e. day trading I would have closed my trade. But in this instance I entered a swing trade based on the 4H TF. On normal day trading days, I enter on much lower TF and judge how candles close against my mental SL on much lower TFs. As a rule, if candles start closing below my mental stop, I would close. But over the years I have also learnt that the time frame you enter on, is the TF you should judge if you want to close your trade. In other words, if I enter on a 4H TF, then in theory I should only close my trade if 4H candles start closing below my mental stop. This is very hard (especially because Nasdaq that can spike thousands of pips at a time). But over the years, as I have grown my account and gained experience, I have been able to hold fast on this observation. And so, as can be seen on the 4H TF, a 4H candle did not close at my mental stop. This draw down had me sweating bullets and if I had my position sizing wrong I could easily have bust my account on a 2'700 pip drawn down (esp because I trade with a 500 leverage). I was also nearly in panic mode because the news is full of stories regarding the Ukraine Russia War escalation. So I am pleased that I held my cool, stuck with my trade plan and didn't panic close my position at a massive loss. Whether it was luck or truly my past "observation", I thank my lucky stars that price ultimately went my way. Entry point for today: I did not add another position today because my exposure was already at the max. But if I hadn't had my swing trade going, I would have entered on the 1H TF at the smiley icon (because the move down was really strong, so I would have looked for confirmation on a higher TF) Also the 1H DB formed on the strong Weekly support. Now we need to see if price can break through the strong sell fib levels and I am hoping Nvidia earnings will help with that. Hope you had a good trading day! Over and out! P.S. Note how price exactly respected the market pattern profit target theory market at C. (i.e. that price will move the same distance as the height of the market pattern, once the market pattern in broken). Price formed a rising wedge on the 4H TF and then broke downwards and moved the exact distance down as the height of the market pattern. Abbreviations: TF = timeframe TP = take profit 1H = 1 hour 4H = 4 hour D = day W = week M = month S&R = support & resistance H&S = head & shoulders EMA = exponential moving average SL = stop loss
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84
Nasdaq 100: Event Risk Needs to be Accounted ForLast week was a tough one for stocks in the Nasdaq 100, as a bout of risk aversion saw the index unwind over 50% of its gains generated after Donald Trump’s win in the Presidential election on November 5th. So far this week, the index has stabilised, and yesterday’s 0.6% rally ended a five-day run of losses. However, technology stocks are still in focus, given Nvidia, the world’s second largest company, with a market capitalisation of over $3.4 trillion reports its earnings tomorrow after the close. Nvidia’s chips are seen by many as the bellwether for artificial intelligence demand, so this earnings release and any forward guidance for performance in 2025 may influence the direction of the Nasdaq 100 given the company’s heavy index weighting. Combine this with an increased level of focus on the war in Ukraine, after the US decided over the weekend to allow Ukrainian forces to use their long range missiles, and a number of Federal Reserve speakers scheduled to talk, it may be a volatile end to the week again for the Nasdaq 100 depending on market conditions. Increased risks in trading the Nasdaq 100 during such high-impact events such as the Nvidia earnings release should not be forgotten. NASDAQ 100 – Testing Trendline Support The strong US equity performance following the Trump victory stalled on November 11th at 21247 and a correction period has materialised from these upside extremes. The setback within the NASDAQ 100 accelerated into the weekend, seeing the index approach a potentially important support level at 20372. This trendline support from the August 5th low, indicates where positive price action has been reflected by a pattern of higher highs and higher lows in price, with an uptrend connecting these lows marking a support focus. We don’t yet know if the support will hold or give way, but it could potentially lead to resumption of upside on a successful hold, or an extended fall, depending on market conditions at the time. What are the Important Levels to monitor on the Downside? As we have said, the uptrend support currently stands at 20372 and defence of this level will be monitored over this important event. Closing breaks may see increased volatility and could potentially lead to further declines, depending on market conditions. The next support if the break does materialise could be 19888 which is the October 31st low, or if a deeper decline develops, perhaps to 19719, which is the 38% Fibonacci retracement of the previous August/November phase of strength. What are the Important Levels to monitor on the Upside? A hold on the trendline at 20372 may see the index resume to the upside, although an important resistance level could prove to be 20827, equal to half the latest sell-off. This resistance area giving way may increase the potential for further development of the uptrend, suggesting the possibility for moves towards 21247, the November 11th all-time high. It should be stressed, that breaks of support or resistance levels are based on hypothetical scenarios and while previous breaks of similar levels may have resulted in further price moves, past performance is not indicative of future results. The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Pepperstone
NAS100USD Will Fall! Short! Take a look at our analysis for NAS100USD. Time Frame: 12h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is approaching a significant resistance area 20,544.9. Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 20,006.6 level. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by SignalProvider
2
USNAS100 / STILL BEARISH AREA !!!Technically: The price did its retest to 20655 and dropped again. So, Now it has a bearish area as long as trades below 20550 to get 20330 the retest possibility is till 20660; then stability below that level will remain a bearish trend. Otherwise, stability above 20660 by closing 1h or 4h candle will attend a bullish trend toward 20860 Key Levels: Pivot Point: 20550 Resistance Levels: 20660, 20860, 21070 Support Levels: 20330, 20130, 19950 Trend Outlook: Bearish below 20550 and 20660 Bullish above 20660
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by SroshMayi
NASDAQ targeting 25400 in the next 6 months. Don't miss this!!Nasdaq (NDX) hit this month our 20900 long-term Target, a level we called 3 months ago (August 12, see chart below): As you can see, the index has been trading within a 2-year Channel Up and with the use of the Fibonacci Channel levels, we can determine on which phase of the Cycle we are. Right now we are on the stage where the price has been rejected near the 0.786 Fib and pulled-back to the 0.5 Fib and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). This is exactly what took place from December 28 2023 to January 05 2024, i.e. during the previous Bullish Phase of the Channel. You can see that with the use of the Time Cycles, we can identify that the first such phase was on February 01 2023. This is the phase that we've just completed and remarkably all 3 within the Channel Up completed a +20.88% rise. This further proves that the symmetry within this pattern is astounding. The larger Bullish Leg was completed on the previous two phases with a +49% and +48% rise respectively, so technically it is natural to assume that the current Bullish Phase (from the August 05 2024 bottom) will be completed on a +47% rise (-1% less than previously) at least. This is why we're expecting to see 25400 as the next Higher High on a 6 month horizon. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by TradingShot