Weekly Forex Outlook Sun.Nov.3.2024 - Fri.Nov.8.2024Like and Comments would be appreciated :D Not Financial Advice, Just my outlook/opinion
NDX trade ideas
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Friday 8 Nov 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Been quiet, dealing with a personal issue - but time to get back into trading.
Did my analysis at +- 5:30 am GMT (00:30 am EST)
Economic news - None today. Fed cut interest rates by 25 bps yesterday.
News - Trump won the US presidential election.
Directional bias - BUY. The strong upsurge in the stock markets are a clear indication that the markets view the US election results favourably. Bulls have stepped in with both volume and momentum.
Morning analysis:
M TF - Very bullish, current candle is 12'500 pips strong
W TF - Very bullish, fib levels moved up and now coincide with D fib levels = TF confluence and strong levels
D TF - Second day of highest D candle close. Bulls are dominating. Strong fib levels as coincide with W.
4H - Difficult to draw fib because price action just moved straight up, but used the line chart to give best estimate (fib drawn from swing low at A to swing high at B) and 4H 0.382 fib level lines up perfectly with pivot point. This is my interest area / area of confluence for today.
During the day:
Price formed a rising wedge on the 1H TF, marked with the blue lines.
Price broke the market pattern downwards and moved down past the market pattern profit target, marked by blue vertical line (i.e. price usually moves down the same distance as the height of the market pattern).
As price neared my area of interest, I noted a double bottom form on the 5min TF and entered.
Entered a buy at the hand icon - Confirmations:
1. Trend - a buy is in the same direction as the overall trend - the trend is your friend
2. Fib - price made a DB above the 4H 0.382 fib level - 4H fib levels are strong levels.
3. Market pattern - DB formed on the 5min TF with neckline broken upwards. I used the 5min TF because price was right at my area of confluence (I don't use this TF if price is not in my area of interest)
4. Candlesticks - doji candle formed on the 15min TF, thereafter, neckline of DB was broken upwards on the 5min. This indicated that sellers were unable to push price down beyond this point and that buyers stepped in.
6. S&R - DB formed above the D pivot.
Mental stop placed below pivot point, at thick red line.
Price moved up and is now re-testing the neckline of the 4H DT. Seems that as of now, bears are giving bulls a hard time.
Once price moved up sufficiently, I secured at entry (moved SL to entry) and am now effectively trading risk free.
My intention is to hold my position in case bulls can re-test and break the 4H neckline upwards.
If I get taken out before that...then I would be ok with a zero profit day for my first day back.
Hope you coined it during this incredible bulls rally the past few days! :)
Abbreviations:
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
EMA = exponential moving average
SL = stop loss
NAS100USD / UNDER FOMC PRESSURE / 4H NAS100USD / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
Recent Price Movement ,The price has reached a new historical level, breaking past the last all-time high (ATH) of 20,788.
Current Target , Prices are trying to approach 21,125. As long as there’s upward pressure, there’s potential for growth.
Potential Retest of Support , Before continuing to increase, prices might retest an old supply zone between 20,788 and 20,662. This area serves as a potential support level, and if the price remains above it, there’s a higher chance for further increases.
Upside Target , If prices stabilize above this support zone, there’s a chance of reaching a new ATH around 21,125. If it breaks this level, the next historical zone lies between 21,200 and 21,350.
Downside Risk, If prices fall below the old supply zone, it could indicate a decline, with a potential target of the Fair Value Gap (FVG) between 20,482 and 20,335. This level represents a potential lower support area if the price trend reverses.
NAS100Potential short term sell, this has high chances of being stopped out, as it a manipulation sell wave, all the best, use proper risks management. Sniper entry or nothing, Lets Downloads Success
NAS100 - Short Setup Developing !20SMA - Blue
200SMA - Pink
Key Confluence Areas - Grey Lines
Market Structure Support/Resistance - Green/Red Dashed Lines
Your interest motivates me:
If you find my analysis helpful, please boost and follow me for future analysis at your service.
How I see it:
Please see analysis for my "SHORT" setup.
Nice H&S forming...
I deeply appreciate you taking the time to study my analysis and point of view.
NAS100-Trump Rally Boosts Futures, All Eyes on Fed Rate DecisionMarket Holds Steady: Trump Rally Boosts Futures, All Eyes on Fed Rate Decision
1. Technically:
The price has broken the previous ATH and is attempting to record new highs.
Today, the market is expected to be volatile due to a 25 bps interest rate cut, which will impact market movement.
As long as the price trades above 20790, the bullish trend is likely to continue toward 20960 and 21070.
Alternatively, if the price closes a 1-hour candle below 20785, it may drop to 20710. A 4-hour candle close below 20710 would confirm a bearish trend, with a potential target of 20550.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 20790
Resistance Levels: 20960, 21070, 21150
Support Levels: 20710, 20550, 20420
Trend:
- Bullish above 20840 and 20790
- Bearish Below 20780 and 20710
2. Futures Steady After Trump-Fueled Rally, Ahead of Fed Rate Decision
Traders have largely priced in a 25-basis point rate cut, though they will closely monitor the central bank’s policy statement for signals on the future path of monetary easing.
“Investors may be pausing to assess recent events and await the Fed’s scale of rate cuts,” one analyst noted.
Investor expectations that Trump would lower corporate taxes and loosen regulations had in the previous session lifted all three major indexes to a record high.
previous idea:
US100 BULLISH SETUP Smart Money Play for US100
With US100 at all-time highs (ATH) and showing signs of overbought conditions, it’s best to look for a well-timed entry in line with the bullish trend, ideally after a slight pullback to a support level. However, caution is essential due to signs of weakening momentum on lower timeframes.
1. Pullback to Support
• Price is well above the daily Ichimoku cloud, the 13 EMA, and the 24 SMA, indicating a strong uptrend. However, the daily RSI has turned down slightly from overbought territory, and price is outside the upper Bollinger Band—these are often signals that a pullback or consolidation could be near.
• For a lower-risk entry, wait for a pullback to key support levels. The 20,600 range aligns with a previous price level where buyers stepped in, making it a key support to watch.
2. Monitor for Volume and Momentum Confirmation
• With the ADL, CMF, and CMO all positive and increasing, underlying buying pressure remains intact. This suggests that any pullback is likely to be corrective rather than a trend reversal, providing a buy-the-dip opportunity.
• If volume remains steady or ADL does not turn negative during the pullback, it would confirm that sellers aren’t overwhelming buyers.
3. Wait for Reversal Signal on Lower Timeframes
• 4-Hour Chart: Overbought signals on the 4-hour RSI (76) and MFI (81) indicate short-term exhaustion. Price could pull back to the 13 EMA or 24 SMA on this timeframe, providing a reasonable entry point once momentum stabilizes.
• 2-Hour MACD: This has turned bearish, showing early signs of short-term selling. Waiting for it to turn back to bullish could give additional confirmation that the pullback has ended.
4. Timing an Entry on Reversal Signals
• Watch for a bullish signal on the 4-hour MACD or RSI as price approaches a support level, ideally the 20,600 range or the daily 13 EMA. If indicators turn bullish again after a small pullback, this would confirm a buy entry.
Trade Ideas
1. Buy-the-Dip Continuation Play:
• Entry: Look to enter on signs of reversal in the 20,600 range or near the 13 EMA, confirmed by a bullish shift in the 4-hour MACD or RSI rebounding from oversold levels.
• Stop-Loss: Place stops below the 4-hour Ichimoku cloud or a recent swing low to allow for minor fluctuations.
• Target: Aim for a continuation to new ATHs, with incremental profit-taking as the price approaches key psychological levels (e.g., 21,200 or higher). Trailing stops can be used to capture extended gains.
2. Alternative Short Pullback Trade:
• Entry: If price breaks below the 20,600 level and the 4-hour Ichimoku cloud, a short trade could target lower support levels, but this is riskier given the bullish sentiment.
• Stop-Loss: Tight stop above recent highs.
• Target: Initial target near the 13 EMA on the daily or the Ichimoku cloud support.
Summary of Smart Money Play
1. Trend Bias: Bullish, in line with the strong daily uptrend.
2. Setup: Wait for a pullback to 20,600 or daily moving averages for a lower-risk entry.
3. Entry Trigger: Confirmed by bullish reversals on the 4-hour MACD or RSI.
4. Risk Management: Stop below key support, targeting ATH or higher levels.
NAS100...Ever The Bullish Instrument Part 4.5 (Retracement)Now that my objective of the HL to HH is complete, it is now time for me to carefully analyze the market correction to determine the next HL that will be formed.
There may be times that I will sell if all my certifying conditions are met, however those are moves that I do not publicize readily as they require a lot of hardwork, research and development...It is what that in mind that I always encourage traders to utilize their demo accounts to try new setups and to journal your wins and losses, that is the only way to grow to the next level and to effectively build a unique strategy.
What am I expecting?
1. The needed retracement to form my largest HL
2. The possibility of a volatile session to create the needed trend HL
In any even mi bias is always bullish with the understanding that any sells are temporary moves to setup my trend HL's.
Happy trading.
#oneauberstrategy
#auberstrategy
#aubersystem
#whywewait
#patience
#zigzagtheory
Fed Cuts Rate by 0.25%; Stocks Reach HighsFed Cuts Rate by 0.25%; Stocks Reach Highs
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve announced a unanimous decision to lower the interest rate from 4.75% to 4.50%, marking the second consecutive cut—a move in line with analyst expectations and forecasts.
“This move will support further progress in controlling inflation as we aim for a more neutral stance over time,” said Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
According to Bloomberg, this decision aligns with the Fed’s efforts to support robust U.S. economic growth, creating positive sentiment for stock indices as newly re-elected President Donald Trump is expected to introduce economic stimulus measures.
However, could tensions arise between the new administration and the Fed? Trump has a record of publicly criticizing Powell and even considered dismissing him during his first term. At a press conference yesterday, Powell was asked if he would step down if requested by Trump, to which he replied decisively, “No.” He added that the removal or demotion of Fed board members, including himself, is “not legally permissible.” Powell emphasized that the U.S. election results would have "no effect" on the Fed’s decisions in the near term.
For now, optimism prevails on U.S. stock markets. Analysis of the Nasdaq 100 index (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) shows that:
→ The price has reached a historic high, surpassing the round figure of 21,000 points and the previous peak set in July around 20,800.
→ It has moved above the upper boundary of the ascending channel (shown in blue), within which it had fluctuated following the early August sell-off.
→ The RSI indicator signals significant market overbought conditions.
Given these factors, the market could be vulnerable to a correction after this recent rally. If a pullback occurs, it may indicate that market sentiment has already priced in the impact of the election outcome and the Fed rate cut. Additionally, the upper black line shown on the chart may act as resistance, potentially cooling the current bullish momentum.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Nasdaq Insights: Uncovering Today’s Opportunities 08-NOV-2024Rise and shine, traders! Start your day with actionable Nasdaq insights. Let's grow your skills together, one chart at a time.
The Nasdaq index sets a new record driven by ‘Trump Trade’
Expectations for a ‘Trump Trade’ are rising, with Wall Street increasing its target for the S&P500; index next year. Notably, there is widespread optimism about Tesla's stock. Bank of America has raised its price target for Tesla from $265 to $350, now the highest on Wall Street, exceeding Morgan Stanley's target of $310. Additionally, the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, but the impact on the market was minimal since this was already factored into prices.
USTEC broke its previous high again and soared to 21130. The index breached the ascending channel’s upper bound, sending a clear bullish signal. If USTEC sustains its uptrend and breaches the resistance at 21300, the index may gain upward momentum toward a new high of 21600. Conversely, if USTEC returns its gains, breaking the channel’s upper bound, the index may fall further to 20700.
TREND LINES RESULTPlease see the result of the previous posting. Price exactly hit the Upper Red Trend Line. Now If it manages to close above the Upper Red Trend Line, then price will move towards Trend Line Orange. Please note There is a resistance at 21430.
TREND LINE ANALYSISThis is Illustration of the Trend Lines from the Higher TF Like 3M and 6M. The resistance lines are Red and Orange Trend lines. The Green and Blue trend lines below show the possible support lines.
NASDAQ 100 (CASH) LONG TO 20,700This idea aims to take advantage of volatility during earnings days. The plan is to buy when the price reaches the 1-hour demand area. However, this alone won’t be enough to enter the market. In fact, it will be necessary to wait for a buyer reaction. I will update the idea as soon as possible. If you follow me, you will receive the updates. Final target: 20,700.
Nas100 update Hi traders I just wanna say congratulations 🎊 👏 💐 🥳 again for your patience n believe in what I say n follow the right trend I won't touchs anyone hands whose securing their bags you've tried soo hard n keep your head up for the next opportunities.
Nasdaq - Long set upYesterday we had a good rebound into the support area
Based on my analysis I think we are in a new long wave to create final 5°
Focus point will be Breakout of the upper part of the descending channel, this will be a confirmation of this view.
Nasdaq100 nearing long term channel resistance As the SPX looks set for a 6000 test, the NASDAQ100 is nearing long term channel resistance. RSI's divergent, but this hasn't stopped the bullish run.
Are Bulls Strong Enough to Protect NAS100I'm closely monitoring NAS100, which is hovering around key support levels on the 200 SMA (daily). These levels align with crucial Fibonacci retracements (0.618 and 0.786), suggesting potential bullish support. However, with the recent spike in the VIX and increased market volatility, there's a question of whether the bulls can maintain control or if the bears are gaining momentum.
Trade Setup:
Entry: 17,900 (after confirming support)
Stop Loss: 16,800
Take Profit 1: At a 1:1 risk-reward ratio
Final Target: Previous highs near 20,758
This setup aims to test the strength of bullish support while carefully managing risk in an uncertain market environment.
NAS100 - WHERE DOES NAS HEADINGTeam, please follow up the chart for NAS
It was a great curve, and a cup
so we will wait for the short position on the top.
NAS100 - Awaiting Fed & FOMC Outcome Today20SMA - Blue
200SMA - Pink
Key Confluence Areas - Grey Lines
Market Structure Support/Resistance - Green/Red Dashed Lines
Your interest motivates me:
If you find my analysis helpful, please boost and follow me for future analysis at your service.
How I see it:
ATH's = Unfamiliar Territory.
At some point in time, a correction is inevitable.
Will confluence of support @ previous HH hold for bullish continuation?
Or will price correct deeper to structure support @ 20300?
Check your calendars before each session!
I deeply appreciate you taking the time to study my analysis and point of view.
NAS100...Ever The Bullish Instrument Part 4Last week saw the completion of another trend move on the daily and the setup for a continuation towards the ATH.
Last week's move created some expanding of the upper consolidation zone with the Daily timeframe signaling a new Low (HL) and still maintaining structure on the larger timeframes.
All of this action still took place in region of the 78% level.
As I have always stated, my bias will always be towards the trend moves which are HL's to HH's
During extended consolidation periods, my entries will be on the HL's and in the event that the trend does not cooperate, I can always TP's on the Larger LH's and scale my accounts to the next level.
The important thing I have learnt over the past few years is to not trade for what I am expecting the market to do, but to trade what the market gives and so the HL's to HH's are still my valid moves.
Last week Wednesday, I took a HL that I am still holding, however to counteract this, I continued to take the HL's as they came and took the profits on the respective LH's...This activity will continue until the buy comes back in trend and the trade will continue as a swing trade towards new ATHs.
What am I expecting this week?
1. My entries will continue to be taken from my largest HL's and terminate on my largest
registered Highs
2. The completion of a daily HH or at worse a LH before looking at sustained retracement
moves.
In any event Monday's, Tuesday's and sometimes Wednesday's are retracement and setup days and it is obvious that NAS100 will not be rushed.
So until then I continue to wait for my largest HL's and trade them to my highest highs.
Remember for this week:
1. Continue to practice trading what you see
2. Use demo accounts to help build your confidence
3. Do not be afraid to loose...learning to consistently loose, helps you ability to isolate what
you know does not work and improve for the next time.
4. Journal every single move and constantly evaluate for opportunities
Have a great trading week and more success
#oneauberstrategy
#auberstrategy
#aubersystem
#whywewait
#patience
#zigzagtheory
NASDSAQ INDEX (US100): Bullish Confirmation After Breakout
US100 Index updated the all-time high, violating a solid daily horizontal resistance.
After a breakout, the market retested the broken structure and started to consolidate
on an hourly time frame.
A violation of the upper boundary of the range is a strong intraday bullish continuation.
It indicates that with a high probability, the price will go up.
Next goal - 20920
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Indices Surge Following Trump's VictoryIndices Surge Following Trump's Victory
Today the US100 rose by almost +1.80% from 20230 to 20600.
This upward movement started by Trump's victory.
Donald Trump was elected president, marking a remarkable comeback four years after being voted into the White House and bringing to the fore a new American leadership that is likely to test democratic institutions at home and relations abroad - as reported by Reuters
Investors are betting that a Trump presidency could bring tax cuts. Indices rose to their highest levels and the US100 could do the same soon.
If the price manages to rise above it's higher price level near 20759 then US100 should rise further as shown on the chart.
Targets:
🎯 20875
🎯 21215
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
