US100 / NASDAQ TODAYFor me is bullish SL last low and TP around 20500
This is just my view is not recomend
NDX trade ideas
NASDAQ-100 breaks 20,000 resistance again - what's next?The NASDAQ-100 breaks through the 20,000 resistance level again. The way up is open.
Note to self to check later: These are the important levels and the intermediate stops that look likely from today's perspective.
Beautiful Bull Pennant on NDQ 4 hrLooking at a beautiful Bull Pennant on NDQ 4 hr. Looks to be breaking out of the upper trend line now. Keeping a close eye on this one.
NAS100 is going higher The NAS100 is surging, riding the wave of bullish momentum as tech giants drive the index higher. Fueled by strong earnings, innovation (mostly AI related).
It is breaking through resistance levels and hitting new highs. With market sentiment on fire and the rally showing no signs of slowing down.
Detailed Breakdown of NASDAQ (NAS100) 1H Chart1. Wyckoff Distribution: Understanding the Phases
The Wyckoff Distribution model is essential for spotting market reversals. Here's a phase-by-phase breakdown of what's happening on the chart:
Phase A: Initial Consolidation
Preliminary Supply (PSY): The first sign that sellers are entering the market. A noticeable rally is slowing down, and buying momentum is weakening.
Automatic Reaction (AR): After reaching PSY, a sudden drop occurs as sellers take over, and the market establishes a new trading range.
Selling Climax (SC): This is where the heavy selling starts to slow down, but not without a significant price dip. SC often forms the bottom of the trading range.
Phase B: Distribution and Testing
Secondary Test (ST): After the AR, price revisits the upper bound of the range, but it doesn’t exceed the highs of the PSY. This forms a peak in the market that further confirms the range.
Sign of Weakness (SOW): Sellers begin to control the market, leading to a lower high or weak rallies within the range.
Upthrust (UT) in Phase B: The market attempts one final push above the established range, trying to trap buyers into believing that an upward breakout will occur. However, this rally fails, forming a Last Point of Supply (LPSY) at the peak of the market.
LPSY and Distribution Completion
LPSY (Last Point of Supply) is a clear signal of market exhaustion. The final upward test (UT) fails, and this typically triggers the start of a sharper decline.
After LPSY, the price starts heading downwards aggressively, signaling that the distribution phase is nearing completion and the market is ready to enter a markdown phase (bearish).
Key Wyckoff Levels in the Chart:
Resistance Level (BC Distribution): Around 19,962.5, marking the upper boundary of the range. This is the price level where the distribution occurred.
Support Level (AR Distribution): At 19,760.1, marking the lower boundary of the consolidation range. This is where buyers briefly took control before sellers resumed dominance.
2. Elliott Wave Analysis: Bearish Wave Count
The chart appears to be using Elliott Wave theory to predict the next market movement. The wave count indicates:
Wave Count Breakdown
Wave 1: An initial bearish impulse wave down, marking the first sign of a reversal.
Wave 2: A corrective move upward, likely reflecting an ABC pattern where price briefly retraces before continuing downward.
Wave 3: The next significant downward wave, usually the strongest and longest in an impulse wave pattern.
At this point, the market is expected to continue into Wave 4 and Wave 5 for further downside:
Wave 4: A smaller corrective move upward before the final push lower.
Wave 5: The final bearish wave, confirming the completion of the full Elliott wave cycle.
Invalidation Points in Elliott Wave
The Wave 4 invalidation point is highlighted at 19,322.9. If price retraces to this level or below, the current wave count will be invalidated, and the overall bearish structure will be reconsidered.
There is an invalidity threshold at 20,064.9 that indicates if price rises beyond this, the bearish Elliott wave count might be invalidated.
3. Fibonacci Levels: Key Retracement Points
The use of Fibonacci retracement levels is another layer to support potential reversal points in the market. Here’s the breakdown:
0.786 Fibonacci Retracement: Positioned at 20,007.6, this is a crucial resistance level. Typically, the 0.786 retracement level acts as a strong reversal zone, indicating that price is likely to reject this area and continue downward.
0.236 and 0.272 Fibonacci Levels: These represent short-term retracement levels. The market seems to have respected these levels in smaller corrective phases, indicating that minor pullbacks will likely occur around these levels before a deeper drop.
4. Harmonic Pattern: Potential Gartley or Bat Pattern
There is a harmonic pattern in play, likely a Gartley or Bat pattern. Here's the possible interpretation:
The 0.786 retracement level plays a key role here, acting as the pivotal level for the harmonic pattern completion. Typically, these patterns show a significant reversal upon completion, which aligns with the current price rejection at this zone.
This suggests a bearish continuation once the pattern is completed, reinforcing the Wyckoff and Elliott Wave analysis.
5. Other Key Market Levels and Indicators
POC (Point of Control): At 19,423.5, this marks a critical area where the most volume has been traded. Price action near the POC could act as a magnet, pulling price back towards this level for a retest.
W Close: Around 19,483.5, which may refer to a key weekly close level. These are typically significant for institutional traders and can act as support/resistance.
These levels, combined with volume, should be watched closely for signs of either a breakout or breakdown.
6. Future Price Movement Forecast
Based on the analysis of Wyckoff, Elliott Wave, and Fibonacci levels, the expected price movement is as follows:
Potential Rejection from LPSY and 0.786 Level: The price is likely to reject the 20,007.6 Fibonacci level and LPSY, marking the end of the upthrust and initiating a further decline.
Downward Elliott Wave Completion: After the rejection, the next bearish wave (Wave 3) is expected to continue, potentially targeting the 19,400-19,300 range. This would align with the SOW (Sign of Weakness) identified in Phase B of the Wyckoff structure.
Corrective Move (Wave 4): A minor upward correction could occur after Wave 3, targeting intermediate Fibonacci levels (0.236 or 0.272). However, this correction will likely be short-lived before continuing downward.
Final Push Down (Wave 5): The final wave should push prices lower toward the 19,322.9 invalidation point, completing the Elliott wave cycle and confirming the Wyckoff markdown phase.
Conclusion
The analysis across multiple methodologies points to a bearish outlook. The price is currently in a Wyckoff distribution phase, where a failure at the LPSY level and rejection from the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement indicates that further downside is expected. Elliott Wave theory supports this with a bearish wave count, targeting a continuation of downward price action after a short correction.
counter trend set-upWe are in a strong bullish market and this set up is counter the trend making it a high risk trade. The stock market is giving go numbers and the DXY is extremly weak therefore this set up is for short term purposes.
Short Breakdown on NAS100 In this video I will give a brief view on what price is currently doing in relation to fed interest rates. Always do your own research and examine history to better create your judgement moving forward. I will try to keep this one simple and not go too deep into various subjects.
Long in nas or daxI would like to try long against double topo on top of charts becouse patterns are already filled
UPDATE ON NAS100 POTENTIAL SHORTSNAS100 4H - As you can see this pair is playing out really well, we want to see a continuation in bullish structure, trading us up and into the Supply Zone above, in doing so we expect price to reverse to the downside.
The reason for this is simple, the buyers who are buying in at the moment will be looking for valid areas to close there positions in profit, removing Demand from the market, the buyers that placed there positions in that area in price will be looking to close there positions at breakeven.
The sellers looking to sell into this market like ourselves will be looking at this area to sell, so with all that being said we are removing a-lot of buying pressure from the market (Demand) and introducing a-lot of selling pressure into the market (Supply), this giving us a complete S&D flip to the downside.
Now in order for us to have confirmation that this is taking place we need to be delivered with a break in structure to the downside, this giving us the confirmation that the correction trading us higher has finished and the new leg lower is ready to be printed.
NAS100 H4 | Approaching overlap supportNAS100 is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 19,782.62 which is an overlap support.
Stop loss is at 19,600.00 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 20,186.17 which is a pullback resistance.
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Detailed Breakdown of NASDAQ (NAS100) 1H Chart Wyckoff Distribution Breakdown
The Wyckoff Distribution pattern suggests that a market has reached a point of exhaustion in its bullish run, and large institutional traders are slowly offloading their positions. This process occurs in multiple phases, each representing distinct market activity. Here’s how it applies to the NAS100.
Phase A: Preliminary Supply (PSY)
In Phase A, the market reaches the Preliminary Supply (PSY) stage, indicating that the early warning signs of selling pressure are appearing. During this phase, large investors begin to distribute their holdings, but retail traders often continue buying, driving prices marginally higher.
PSY level in the NAS100 chart is shown around 19,627.2. This marks the initial stage where buying momentum begins to lose its strength, and sellers subtly take over.
Phase B: Build-Up of Supply
In Phase B, the market continues to see a range-bound movement, where large institutional players sell off their holdings to uninformed retail traders. This phase includes a series of rallies and retracements.
Secondary Test (ST): This is a crucial test of the supply level, indicating how much demand remains in the market. On the NAS100 chart, the ST occurs near the 19,900 level, a brief rally after the PSY.
Automatic Reaction (AR): Following the buying climax, prices drop sharply, resulting in a pullback that occurs due to the initial sell-off. The AR level confirms the weakening of bullish sentiment and can be seen around 19,700.
Sign of Weakness (SOW) in Phase B: The SOW confirms that the market's uptrend is faltering. In the NAS100, this occurs around the same 19,700 zone, showing that the large traders have started their distribution in earnest, and selling pressure is increasing.
Phase C: Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD)
The Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD) is one of the most critical moments in the Wyckoff pattern. It is a final attempt by large players to push the market to new highs, luring in retail traders who still believe the bullish trend will continue. However, this is often a trap as the market quickly reverses.
The UTAD level on the NAS100 chart is seen just below 20,007.6, where prices spike, hitting their final high before a sharp decline. This marks the peak of the distribution phase, indicating that the bullish trend is over.
Phase D: Final Distribution and Last Point of Supply (LPSY)
Phase D marks the beginning of the end for the bullish market. At this point, the distribution has concluded, and the market starts trending downward. The Last Point of Supply (LPSY) is where the remaining supply is distributed, and any price rallies from here are weak and short-lived.
In the NAS100, the LPSY level is critical because it confirms the transition into the markdown phase, leading to lower price levels. Any attempt to rally will likely meet resistance, and from here, sellers will dominate.
Phase E: Markdown
In Phase E, the market has fully transitioned into a bearish trend. Prices move sharply lower as supply overwhelms demand. This phase often leads to a significant markdown in price, where all remaining bullish sentiment evaporates.
The chart's Elliott Wave count shows that the NAS100 is likely entering Wave 3 of the bearish Elliott Wave structure, which is typically the most powerful and steep phase of the wave cycle. The forecast suggests that prices could head toward the Point of Control (POC) level at 19,450, marking the next potential support zone. Below this, there is an invalidation point around 19,000, where the broader bullish structure would be entirely negated.
Elliott Wave Analysis
In conjunction with the Wyckoff Distribution, Elliott Wave Theory is used to predict the market’s next movement based on the fractal nature of price waves.
Wave 1 marked the initial decline after the distribution phase, where sellers gained control over the market. This was followed by Wave 2, a corrective move that briefly retraced the bearish trend but failed to breach new highs, confirming the distribution pattern.
Wave 3, which appears to be forming now, is expected to be a significant bearish impulse wave. This wave could bring prices further down, breaking support levels established during the earlier bullish phases.
Based on this Elliott structure, the Wave 4 invalidation level is key. If prices breach this point, it will invalidate any remaining bullish sentiment, accelerating the bearish trend.
Future Outlook
Given the combination of the Wyckoff Distribution and Elliott Wave structure, NAS100 appears to be entering a marked down phase, where prices are expected to continue their decline. The key levels to watch are:
POC (Point of Control) at 19,450, which could serve as the first significant support zone.
Wave 4 invalidation point at 19,000, which, if breached, will signal a continuation of the bearish momentum.
In the coming days, traders should expect more downside movement, particularly as Wave 3 of the Elliott structure accelerates, pulling prices towards the lower boundaries. This analysis strongly suggests avoiding long positions at this stage and potentially looking for shorting opportunities if price rallies fail near resistance points.
Conclusion
The NAS100 is showing clear signs of entering a bearish markdown phase, as indicated by both the Wyckoff Distribution and Elliott Wave patterns. Large institutional players have likely finished distributing their holdings, and the market is poised for further downside. Traders should be cautious of any short-lived rallies and focus on the key support and resistance levels highlighted above for potential trading opportunities.
Don’t Miss Future Updates
Follow my page for ongoing updates and in-depth technical analysis on NAS100, BTCUSD, XAUUSD, and other major assets. Stay informed, and don’t forget to read the detailed chart breakdowns for critical trading insights!
Nasdaq Thoughts 25-Sept-2024GOOD MORNING Everyone! Please find my Nasdaq market analysis for today below. As a price action trader, I encourage you to compare my charts with yours and use my insights to enhance your skills. These videos are designed for educational purposes only, not as trading signals. My goal is to help you grow and become a proficient trader.
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Nasdaq100 preparing for short orders. Nasdaq100 is set to keep up with its current bullish momentum which is set to test the supply zone(25626.00) formed prior to the change in market structure shift. Fair value gap will be filled whilst the market grabs the buy side liquidity. This signals a bearish movement with targets either 50% equilibrium of the previous price movement or the demand zone formed at the lower lows of the current market structure.
Bearish orders are to be placed at price 25626.00 with stop loss at 20903.00 with take profits as mentioned.
NAS100 9/24/24💹
👁️ Outlook
30m Context Time Frame: NAS100 has been breaking billish and re-accumulated during NY open and is now surfing the emas 5,10.20. Price is looking very nice for lower time frame entries and is now headed to 20027.1
Daly Bias: Bullish
Keeping an eye on this. 👁️
Nasdaq 100 heading for sell orders! Nasdaq100 is expected to carry on with a bullish momentum. Which will see price push to test the supply formed at a highest point before a market structure shift was formed. Price will grab the buy side liquidity which signals a bearish movement at supply zone. Take profit number one will be at a previous movements equilibrium (19100.00) with take profit number 2 at a deepest demand zone.
NAS100 in bullish trend NAS100 in bullish trend expected to show a trend reversal in the coming week, RSI diversions can be seen. Entry with a sell stop, safer entry at the previous Higher low.
SELL US100!The US100 is at a major resistance level, accompanied by bearish divergence, signaling a potential downside movement. A sell opportunity could be confirmed with a breakout below the most recent higher low.
NASDAQ rally until the end of the year supported by the 1dayMA50Nasdaq has held the 1day MA50 after the Fed cut last week and is extending the rally.
The long term pattern has been upward since the 2022 bottom supported by the 1day MA200, which is the best buy entry long term when touched.
The 1week MACD is about to form a Bullish Cross, which is formed after every bottom these past two years.
The main rallies during that time have been more than +30%.
Our target for the end of the year, as long as the 1day MA50 supports of course, is 22500.
Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
US100 (NDQ): Trend in 2H time frameThe color levels are very accurate levels of support and resistance in different time frames, and we have to wait for their reaction in these areas.
If the NDQ chart does not react to close levels, this analysis will be invalid.
So, Please pay special attention to the very accurate trend, colored levels, and you must know that SETUP is very sensitive.
BEST,
MT
NAS100USD: Bullish Momentum with Focus on FVG Targets!Greetings Traders!
Brief Description🖊️:
Currently, NAS100USD is displaying a bullish delivery in structure, with institutional order flow entirely bullish. It's crucial to align with the market trend by identifying price action confluences that present buying opportunities. The H1 structure is supporting a daily Balanced Price Range (BPR), where the market has efficiently delivered price. Given this, I anticipate further bullish movement as price seeks to fill inefficiencies like Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) and Liquidity Voids.
Things I Have Seen👀:
Bullish Institutional Order Flow📈 : The market is delivering bullish price action, supported by H1 structure.
H1 Buystops Taken✅ : Price has cleared H1 buystops and drawn into an H1 FVG, where I am looking for confirmation entries for a potential continuation upwards.
Bullish Targets🎯:
H1 Bearish Order Block (20,355.7): This is the initial upside target, representing the last efficiently delivered price action.
FVGs Above: After reaching the H1 bearish order block, I expect price to fill the inefficient price action (FVGs) left above this zone.
What's Important Now❗
Monitor the H1 FVG for confirmation entries and align with the overall bullish structure, as price is likely to continue its upward trajectory toward filling inefficiencies in the market.
Best Regards,
The_Architect
Recap of my NAS trade today, FOH continuationNAS printing a nice FOH in LON, with the continuation trade into the ID setup from friday for NY
US100US100 is in reversal zone
Bearish divergence also shown in RSI.
Rising wedge reversal pattern also form..
We wait and watch for the breakout of wedge pattern.
Nasdaq in correction or change of trend?Considering the resistance in the range of 19990, after breaking this range, we can expect that the range of 20208 and 20417 will continue to rise. Otherwise, after breaking the support range of 19832, it can fall to the range of 19612.
