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NDX trade ideas

NAS100 (Nasdaq) Technical breakdown (1h) (15m)Harmonic Patterns: Gartley Pattern The Gartley pattern, as you highlighted, is a five-point price formation. It's a powerful harmonic pattern for predicting potential market reversals. X: The initial move or trend, establishing the directional bias. A: First correction in the opposite direction of X, signaling a pullback. B: This leg retraces XA, typically by 61.8%, marking a key turning point. C: Projects from AB, often a retracement to 61.8% or 78.6% of the XA leg. This projection serves as an intermediate level before D. D: This point completes the pattern and is a potential reversal zone, determined by the 127.2% or 161.8% extension of AB. Traders look to enter here, expecting a significant reversal. Support and Resistance Levels The horizontal lines represent critical price levels: Support: Acts as a floor where price may find buying pressure and reverse upward. Resistance: Acts as a ceiling where price may face selling pressure and reverse downward. These levels help identify optimal entry and exit points, especially when combined with harmonic patterns like the Gartley. Trend Lines Diagonal trend lines connecting significant highs and lows show the overall direction of the market: Uptrend Lines: Connecting higher lows during an upward movement, showing areas to watch for pullbacks in a bullish trend. Downtrend Lines: Connecting lower highs during a downward movement, indicating areas of potential resistance in bearish markets. Trend lines serve as additional confluence when assessing the validity of the Gartley pattern at point D. Fibonacci Retracements and Extensions Fibonacci ratios are crucial for identifying potential reversal levels: Retracements: Used to measure corrections within the XA leg, typically at 38.2%, 50%, or 61.8%. In this case, the B and C legs are based on Fibonacci retracements of the XA leg. Extensions: These project the next potential price move. The D point in the Gartley pattern is often identified using Fibonacci extensions (127.2% or 161.8% of the AB leg). Annotations UT in Phase B (D): Likely refers to an Upthrust in Phase B of Wyckoff's method, indicating a false breakout or test of resistance, suggesting a potential turning point. Current Strong: Indicates that the prevailing trend (either bullish or bearish) has strong momentum, likely backed by volume or momentum indicators. LPSY (Last Point of Supply): A term from Wyckoff analysis, signaling the final effort of buyers before a price decline in a distribution phase. It often indicates bearish sentiment. Interpretation The trader is likely using a blend of harmonic patterns, support/resistance levels, and Fibonacci analysis to find entry and exit points. The Gartley pattern helps spot potential reversals at key levels, while trend lines and Fibonacci levels offer additional validation. Potential Trading Strategies Long Entry Strategy: Setup: If the price is nearing a major support level and the Gartley pattern is completing at point D, traders may look for a bullish reversal pattern to go long. Confirmation: Price action signals such as bullish engulfing candles, pin bars, or divergence on indicators (like RSI) can confirm the reversal at point D. Targets: Fibonacci retracement levels (38.2%, 50%, or 61.8% of the AD move) serve as potential profit targets. Short Entry Strategy: Setup: If the price is nearing a resistance level and the Gartley pattern is completing at point D, traders may look for bearish reversal signals to enter short. Confirmation: Look for price action patterns (like a shooting star or bearish divergence) near point D to confirm the setup. Targets: Again, use Fibonacci retracement levels (38.2%, 50%, or 61.8% of the last move) as exit targets.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by spacedevil
NAS100 (Nasdaq) Technical breakdown (1d) (4h)1D Chart Analysis (Left Panel) Wyckoff Methodology Phase B (Distribution): The chart highlights that we're in "Phase B" of Wyckoff's distribution. In a distribution phase, institutional players begin selling positions, offloading shares to retail traders. The Upthrust (UT) in Phase B is a key component, signaling an upward fake-out or liquidity grab to distribute larger orders before a sell-off. ST (Sign of Weakness): This is marked in the earlier phase of the cycle, and it's typically the initial sign that buyers are losing momentum. The ST is followed by a Secondary Test (D) where price retests near highs before sellers gain control. PSY (Preliminary Supply): This is marked during the earlier phase of the structure, indicating an initial area where larger players began testing the supply of the asset. This is followed by a Buying Climax (BC), a strong upward movement followed by institutional selling. Elliott Wave Analysis Wave 5 Completion: The chart labels the peak as the completion of Wave 5 of a larger Elliott Wave structure. The completion of Wave 5 indicates the end of an uptrend, potentially signaling a new downtrend or a larger correction. Bearish Harmonic Pattern: The chart includes a harmonic pattern indicating a strong reversal structure. Harmonic patterns often lead to price reversals at specific Fibonacci levels. The extension to 1.618 Fibonacci is a key reversal zone, suggesting exhaustion of the bullish trend. Key Levels Invalidation Points: In the harmonic structure, invalidation levels are shown at 20,362.5 and 20,219.3. These levels are critical to determining whether the bearish case is still valid. If price moves above these levels, the harmonic pattern is invalidated, and a bullish scenario may reemerge. 4H Chart Analysis (Right Panel) Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and ICT Methodologies Break of Structure (BOS): The chart on the 4H side highlights a BOS (Break of Structure) on the internal timeframe, signaling a bullish shift in the short term. In this case, the market has broken a bearish structure and is now showing a temporary bullish trend. Liquidity Inducement (Wave A Inducement): The Inducement Wave A label suggests a classic ICT concept where liquidity above prior highs is engineered before price moves lower. This is often where retail traders are trapped in the wrong direction before larger players push price in the intended direction. Order Blocks: There appears to be the identification of sell-side and buy-side order blocks. An Order Block (OB) is a price area where institutional buying or selling occurs, acting as strong support/resistance zones. These order blocks represent key price levels where liquidity is concentrated. Harmonic Pattern (Bearish) The bearish harmonic pattern remains in play on the 4H chart. The symmetry of this pattern combined with the Fibonacci retracement levels suggests that price may reverse around the 1.236 extension or fail near 1.325. Market Structure and Trends Markup Phase: The right-hand side of the 4H chart suggests that price is undergoing a Markup Phase, with internal swing highs being created. This is a period of rising prices after a consolidation or accumulation. It indicates that, although the macro view (1D) shows potential for a downtrend, the short-term bullish momentum could play out for a while. LPSY (Last Point of Supply): This term indicates the final area where sellers take control before a significant move lower. This is highlighted in both the 1D and 4H charts, suggesting that this area will act as strong resistance in the coming price action. Summary of the Break down 1D Timeframe: larger Wyckoff Distribution is playing out, with Wave 5 completing in an Elliott Wave structure. This suggests that the market has reached an exhaustion point, and we may expect a reversal or correction soon. The harmonic pattern also reinforces this bearish outlook, with specific invalidation levels providing a framework for risk management. 4H Timeframe: The shorter-term view on the 4H chart highlights bullish momentum due to a Break of Structure and the beginning of a Markup Phase. However, this may only be temporary, given the broader bearish structure visible on the 1D chart. Key Reversal Zones: Pay attention to the harmonic pattern extension levels and BOS zones. If price moves beyond the invalidation points, the bearish thesis may fail, and a new bullish trend could develop. Liquidity Traps and Institutional Activity: The SMC concepts like inducement and order blocks suggest that liquidity is being engineered around key price levels. Traders should be cautious about potential false breakouts or traps before a major directional move occurs.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Short
by spacedevil
1
NAS100 / US100 Bank Money Heist Plan On Bullish SideBonjour My Dear Robbers / Money Makers & Losers, 🤑 💰 This is our master plan to Heist NAS100 / US100 Bank based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Long entry. Our target is Red Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is overbought / Consolidation / Trend Reversal / Trap at the level Bearish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich. Attention for Scalpers : If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money 💰. Note: If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money. Entry : Can be taken Anywhere, What I suggest you to Place Buy Limit Orders in 15mins Timeframe Recent / Nearest Swing Low Stop Loss 🛑 : Recent Swing Low using 30m timeframe Warning : Fundamental Analysis news 📰 🗞️ comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss. Don't Enter the market at the news update. Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target. Support our Robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Follow, Like & Share with your friends and Lovers. Make our Robbery Team Very Strong Join Ur hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday make money easily with Thief Trading Style. Stay tuned with me and see you again with another Heist Plan..... 🫂
NLong
by Thief_Trader
1
NASDAQ /Fed Rate Cut Spurs Bullish Trend But Stability UncertainFed's Significant Rate Cut Elicits Muted Response, But Calm May Be Temporary The price is expected to maintain its bullish trend, supported by strong bullish volatility following the 50 bps rate cut. Currently, as long as the Nasdaq trades above 19,690, the price is likely to target 19,970 as an initial point, with 20,100 as the next potential level. A reversal below 19,680, however, could indicate a shift to a bearish trend towards 19,535. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 19,690 Resistance Levels: 19,970, 20,120, 20,500 Support Levels: 19,535, 19,370, 19,160 Expected Trading Range for Today: 19,680 to 19,980 Trend: Bullish while above 19,690 Previous idea:
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by SroshMayi
Nasdaq-100 Index. The Psychological Aspects of Round NumbersIn the complex dance of commerce and finance, price tags play a key role in influencing consumer decisions. While it’s a fairly common psychological assumption that every penny and cent counts when it comes to getting the best deal, human psychology often deviates from this linear logic. In this educational post, we explore the irresistible appeal of round numbers, and how they often trump other considerations when making transaction decisions. The Irresistible Attraction to Round Numbers We do often believe that every penny counts in our transactions. However, research shows a striking deviation from this assumption. In scenarios where people choose a price, such as tipping at a restaurant or donating to beloved author or website, they disproportionately choose round numbers — like $ 5, $ 10 or $ 20 — far more than would be predicted by chance alone. One could argue that this is due to the rejection of change, a reluctance to waste time on small change, and the unwillingness to bother with complex mathematics. However, even in cases where the exact bill is not an issue (e.g., cashless card payments), the preference remains. For example, diners faced with a non-round bill (for example $ 34.67) are more likely to give non-round tips ($ 15.33), but only so that the total is a neat round number ($ 50). Why do we prefer round prices? And what is the psychology behind it? 1) Cognitive simplicity: The human mind is programmed to simplify and seek simplicity. Numbers like 10, 50, or 100 inherently feel “cleaner” and less chaotic than 17, 62, or 84. This desire for neatness gives us a sense of accomplishment. 2) Perception of quality: The marketing world has long capitalized on this preference for round numbers. Brands strategically associate round prices with premium quality. On the other hand, odd prices like “29.99” or “34.99,” while ubiquitous, subconsciously signal here's a discount or a bargain. 3) This preference is not limited to prices. People exhibit this tendency to round in other aspects of life as well. Our repeated exposure to round numbers is common in a variety of contexts, both in everyday life and during financial transactions, which contributes to an unconscious bias toward them. This cognitive ease with round numbers further perpetuates the preference. The stock market’s behavior and its fluctuations around these significant, round numbers is not a coincidence in general; there is a psychological explanation. Market Psychology of Round Numbers When the market reaches round numbers such as 500 or 1,000, 2,500 or 5,000, 10,000 or 20,000, it attracts the attention of both active traders and casual investors who may not even be actively following the market. As in everyday life, people often use round numbers as thresholds for making investment decisions. For example, some may decide to enter the market if a major index such as the Nasdaq-100 has exceeded 10,000, or they may decide to sell some of their stocks if the Nasdaq-100 has reached 20,000. These round numbers act as magnets for sellers as they mark important milestones given the relatively high rarity of a round number. If the market has the potential to move higher, it first needs to absorb the selling pressure around the round numbers and establish equilibrium before continuing its move higher. If we analyze the market behavior over the last decades, we will see clear patterns at round numbers. Let us take a closer look at a few examples. 1) Indian Stock Index, Sensex BSE:SENSEX Sensex, one of the major market indices in India, has its share of round number syndrome. For example, when Sensex reached 10,000 points in Q1 2006, it experienced significant market activity, with the index fluctuating by as much as 30 percent in Q2. The same phenomenon occurred at multiples of 10,000. Thus, at 20,000 points, which the Indian market reached at the end of 2007, the index collapsed by more than 60 percent over the next 4 quarters of 2008. Later the 20,000 mark has been reached again in the second half of 2010, and the index again suffered a decline of more than 20 percent during 2011. Later Indian stock market index reached the 30,000 mark in the first quarter of 2015, and its led to a price decline of more than 20 percent in the next 4 quarters, while 40,000 mark in the fourth quarter of 2019 - led to the market decline by 30 percent on the wave of COVID-19 sales. 2) Gold market OANDA:XAUUSD As in the previous example, round numbers often become key points of congestion for Gold market, when the market tries to break even higher, but the forces of buyers and sellers may be unequal. For example, spot Gold reached the $ 1,000 mark for the first time in the Q1 2008, which, following the logic discussed above, led to sales and 30 percent decrease. Gold spot buyers have tried a lot to reach $ 2,000 mark in 2011, but it brought the market down by 45 percent over the next 5 years. There were also a lot of unsuccessful attempts to jump above $ 2,000 in 2020-2022. Finally Gold spot surged above $ 2,000 only in Q4 2023, its led to further price increase, up to 2500 US dollars per ounce. 3) US stock index, Nasdaq-100 index NASDAQ:NDX The Nasdaq-100 index approached the 10,000 point mark for the first time in Q1 2020, which could have contributed to the sell-off. In fact, this is what happened, as the market then plunged by more than 30 percent in March 2020, and only thanks to monetary support measures and the reduction of US interest rates to almost zero, the index was able to break the 10,000 barrier by the end of Q2 2020. Reaching the 20,000 mark by the market index in Q2 2024, as we see, again leads to increased turbulence in US tech stocks and talk of imminent monetary easing by the Fed. Final Thoughts 1) It is important to note that round number syndrome and increased seismic activity near rounds number is a short-term phenomenon. Once the selling pressure is absorbed, the market resumes its movement based on other factors and develops independently of these already passed milestones. 2) Understanding the market behavior at round numbers can provide valuable information to investors. These round numbers act as psychological triggers for investors, driving their decision-making processes. 3) Understanding this phenomenon allows investors to make more informed choices and understand the short-term fluctuations that occur during these stages.
NASDAQ:NDXEducation
by Pandorra
NASDAQ 100 (NAS100)If the Federal Reserve decides to implement a 50 basis point cut, it can often lead to a positive market reaction, particularly in technology-focused indices like the NASDAQ 100 (NAS100). However, predicting the exact magnitude of the movement is challenging as it can vary based on various factors, including:1. **Market Sentiment**: If the market perceives the rate cut as a strong signal of support for economic growth, NAS100 could see a notable rally. 2. **Investor Reactions**: Traders might react differently based on their expectations before the announcement. If the cut was anticipated, the immediate reaction might be muted, as much of the effect could have already been priced in. 3. **Additional Factors**: Other influences such as earnings reports from tech companies, inflation data, or global economic conditions can also affect how NAS100 responds post-announcement. In general, historically, significant rate cuts have led to positive movements in indices like the NAS100, potentially allowing for gains in the range of 1-3% on the day of the announcement. However, actual outcomes will depend on the factors mentioned above and cannot be guaranteed. It’s always wise to consider volatility and other market conditions when investing.
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by US30EMPIRE
Nasdaq Edges Higher Ahead of U.S Retail Sales Data &FOMC MeetingNasdaq Edges Higher Ahead of U.S. Retail Sales Data and FOMC Meeting The price is expected to maintain its bullish trend towards 19,690 as the initial target. Stability above 19,690 will further support an upward move towards 19,970 and beyond. Conversely, a break below 19,370 would indicate a downward trend towards 19,160. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 19535 Resistance Levels: 19690, 19970, 20120 Support Levels: 19370, 19160, 18920 Expected Trading Range Today: 19370 to 19970 Trend: Bullish while above 19,520
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by SroshMayi
NAS100USD / KEY LEVEL 19,954 - 4HNAS100USD / 4H TIME FRAME HELLO TRADERS Tendency , prices trading below 19,954 , it indicates under downward pressure Prices are expected to remain under bearish pressure as long as they trade below the key levels of 19,954 and 19,535. Should the price stabilize and remain below these thresholds, a decline towards 19,187 is anticipated. A breach below this point could signal a further drop to 18,688. On the other hand, if the resistance at 19,954 is broken, we could witness upward momentum, with prices potentially rising first to 20,194 and then extending to 20,714. UPWARD TARGET : 20,194 , 20,714. DOWNWARD TARGET : 19,187 , 18,688.
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by ArinaKarayi