Scary TechnicalsMACD over bought on a monthly historically suggest we have a 40-80% decline in equity prices soon.
NDX trade ideas
Downside unfolding in NASDAQ 100NASDAQ:NDX has finally started giving confirmation of downmove with weekly negative close and a strong bearish engulfing. We might see a pullback in wave 2/B early next week after which downmove should continue. Watch the video for levels and more details.
Nasdaq is consolidating in narrow zone with upward biasNasdaq is consolidating in narrow zone with upward bias
NASDAQ Rejected on the 1hour MA50 but bottom is in.Nasdaq / US100 is trading inside a monthly Channel Up.
Despite getting rejected today on the 1hour MA50, the Higher Low at the bottom of the Channel Up has been priced in.
This is a good buy opportunity. Target 20350 (the 0.618 Fibonacci level).
Previous chart:
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US100 Trade LogTrade Setup (31/10/2024) - US100 Long in 1H FVG
1. Setup: Enter long within the 1-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG), which serves as a potential demand zone for an upward move.
2. Entry strategy:
- Target: 1:2 RRR.
- Risk: 1% of account.
- Confirmation: Look for bullish reversal patterns, such as a strong rejection wick or bullish engulfing candle, within the 1H FVG to confirm entry.
3. Stop-loss and take-profit:
- Place stop-loss just below the lower boundary of the 1H FVG to limit downside risk.
- Set take-profit at twice the distance of the stop-loss for a 1:2 RRR.
4. Additional considerations:
- Be aware of market-moving news or data releases that could impact US100 volatility.
- Ensure price action within the FVG indicates strong buying interest before entering.
This setup aims to capitalize on potential bullish momentum within the 1H FVG as a support zone.
US100 TOWARDS THE SKYWe missed the entry yesterday thinking it would bounce way harder than that, it actually took several hours to get back in an uptrend position ;
for now it seems a little corection to the LL is coming after the 15:30 rush ;
after that, US100 is going to the roof and taking the uptrend direction back.
Bearish Bias on US TECHThe Market's Price action has been on a healthy down trend, break of structure to the downside multiple swing lows being broken, the 200 Moving average exponential being broken at around 20,200. I anticipate a retracement or pull back to 20,166.18 and continuation of sells till 19,862 as my profit targets
PROGRESS ON THE NASDAQ SHORTSNAS100 4H - Who watched this weeks Sunday Sessions video? If you did then you would know that I was looking to short this market this week and as you can see price has played out exactly as we had predicted.
A huge well done to anyone who got themselves in shorts this week with this market, I feel this bearish pressure is going to be here to stay, we may see some sort of correction initially before a further down move.
Now that price has broken structure on the 4H timeframe to the downside we have higher timeframe confluence to suggest further bearish structure, we should now be looking for areas of Supply to add to our shorts from.
The best thing we can do is look at the previous impulsive wave that broke the structure for areas of Supply, this is where price will pullback up and into to set a lower high before the new lower low.
US100 Trade Log - NFP + Bad Apple EarningsTrade Log (31/10/2024) - US100 Short Setup
1. Context: The setup is influenced by multiple bearish factors:
- Recent Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data indicating weaker-than-expected job growth.
- Bad earnings report from Apple, adding to negative market sentiment.
- Formation of a bearish wedge pattern on the charts.
- 1H timeframe shows a short signal within a Fair Value Gap (FVG) acting as a supply zone.
2. Entry strategy:
- Target: 1:2 RRR.
- Risk: 1% of account.
- Entry confirmation: Enter short when price retraces into the 1H FVG and shows bearish signals, such as a reversal candle or rejection wick.
3. Stop-loss and take-profit:
- Place stop-loss above the upper boundary of the 1H FVG to protect against false breakouts.
- Set take-profit at twice the stop-loss distance for a 1:2 RRR.
4. Additional considerations:
- Monitor market reactions closely to any follow-up reports or news related to major tech stocks.
- Be prepared for increased volatility around NFP data and Apple’s impact on broader tech sentiment.
NAS100USDNAS100USD, analysis
1. **Support and Resistance Zones**:
- The chart shows two key levels: 20,683.1 as resistance and 19,645.2 as support. Price is currently below the resistance at 20,683.1 and appears to be testing lower levels, which may indicate selling pressure.
2. **Price Action**:
- The recent decline from the 20,683.1 level suggests that the NAS100 may be experiencing a pullback or reversal in the short term. If price fails to sustain above the 20,016 level (where it’s currently hovering), it could continue toward the lower support at 19,645.2.
3. **Trend**:
- The overall trend leading up to this point appears bullish, with the price making higher highs and higher lows. However, a failure to break above the recent high could signal a potential reversal or a more significant correction.
4. **Potential Trade Setup**:
- **Sell Signal**: If price fails to hold above 20,016 and shows signs of bearish continuation, a short position targeting the 19,645.2 support level could be considered.
- **Buy Signal**: If price finds support at or above 20,016, shows signs of a reversal, and moves back towards 20,683.1, it may signal a continuation of the uptrend, suggesting a potential buy.
Suggested Approach
Consider monitoring price action around the 20,016 level. A confirmed break below could favor a short position, while support around this level might favor a long position targeting the resistance near 20,683.1. Remember to set a stop-loss in line with your risk tolerance and to manage your position carefully.
USNAS100 / NFP With bearish volatility Technically :
The price has dropped precisely as anticipated. It is now expected to reach 19860, with a stabilization below 20008 level likely extending the decline toward 19740.
Bearish Scenario: While trading below 20000, the price may attempt to reach 19860 and 19740. A break below 19740 would pave the way for further declines toward 19520.
Bullish Scenario: Stabilization above 20020 would open the path to 20240. Further strength above this level could create a bullish zone targeting 20420.
Today’s market is expected to be highly volatile due to the release of the NFP, Unemployment Rate data, and earnings reports, which will likely have a strong impact on indices.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 20020
Resistance Levels: 20125, 20240, 20330
Support Levels: 19860, 19740, 19520
Trend outlook:
- Bullish above 20125
- Bearish below 20020
previous idea:
US100 Trade LogTrade Setup (30/10/2024) - US100 Long on 1H FVG with Market Open Liquidity Grab
1. Setup: Enter long within the 1-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG) if there is a wick rejection signal on market open, suggesting a liquidity grab.
2. Entry strategy:
- Target: 1:2 RRR.
- Risk: 1% of account.
- Confirmation: Look for a sharp wick into the FVG at market open, showing a liquidity grab and immediate recovery back into the zone.
3. Stop-loss and take-profit:
- Place stop-loss just below the wick low to protect against further downside.
- Set take-profit at twice the stop-loss distance, aiming for a 1:2 RRR.
4. Additional considerations:
- Be mindful of volatility and spreads at market open.
- Ensure wick rejection confirms strong demand within the FVG before entering.
This setup aims to capture upside momentum following a liquidity grab at market open, using the 1H FVG as a support zone for entry.
trend ndx#ndx
Nasdaq trend is down
The last line has broken its upward trend.
It is currently losing the support range of 20,000 units.
The next support range is 19550.
NAS100 Daily outlook | Bias BullishI was looking for Nas100 characteristics around elections on a daily timeframe.
I found some similarities:
2016 Market Top (4906) was 34 bars before the E-day, it never came back to the same levels.
2020 Market Top (12467, 2.54x) was 44 bars before the E-day, it broke down these levels in Jun-Dec 2022.
2024 Market Top (20758, 1.665x) was 83 bars before the E-day.
Last Friday before the election seems important in both (16/20) cases as it became a major support for the next cycle.
IMO, Friday would be bearish but S1(19600), and S2(19290) seem like important levels for the uptrend to sustain, Friday should not go beyond S1.
With a bullish Bias, I would wait for Friday to close and then like to do either of the following:
Instant order on green candle close with stoploss on S2
Buy Stop on the market top break with SL under S1
Would love to know what you think.
NAS100 1hr FVG identified. Previous day's low could be taken out and look for MSS to the upside and enter for longs.
NAS100...Ever The Bullish Instrument Part 3This week we are back in our favorite consolidation Zone...Right above the 78%.
As you should have seen by now even with last week's sell off, the price only created a new HL on the daily timeframe before shooting right back above the previous HH set on October 14.
This confirms my bullish bias, that although the market is consolidating, the moves still favor the bulls as the trend is always your friend.
This type of movement however, does create opportunities for sellers also as you would have seen from last week's move, however they should be traded only with the proper experience.
If you are not comfortable identifying the start and end of a bearish retracement, your best bet is to wait for your largest HL and keep buying the trend for the HL's to the HH's.
For this week:
1. Continue trading the HL's to the HH's
2. Continue to learn the correct keys for the certification moves for more swing trade entries.
3. Remember Mondays, Tuesdays, and sometimes Wednesdays are the days the market takes to
Create it's upper and lower zones and Thursdays to Friday's complete the current trend
moves.
Have a great week.
#auberstrategy
#aubersystem
#whywewait
#zigzagtheory
#patience
#masteryourcraft.
Nasdaq Unleashed -Today’s thoughts: 01-NOV-2024Happy New month Traders. Let’s dive into today's Nasdaq market analysis. Share insights, and potentially spot opportunities for good pips.
NAS100USD / TRADING UNDER EARNING Q3 / 4HNAS100USD / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
Initial Achievement , Prices have reached a target with a profit of +350 pips, indicating successful movement in the predicted direction.
Current Trading Range , Prices are currently within a Fair Value Gap (FVG) between 20,549 and 20,410. An FVG is an area where liquidity may exist, so prices might experience some consolidation here.
If prices break below 20,146 (the demand line) and hold there, this would likely confirm a downtrend , A demand line often indicates support, where buyers might step in to prevent further drops.
Stabilizing within the FVG (above 20,410) suggests potential to reach 20,820 and further to 20,968 , If prices stabilize above the demand line, this would indicate strength and could push prices towards the target.
Overall Sentiment , The analysis concludes with an upward pressure bias, suggesting the analyst anticipates more bullish movement despite potential consolidation zones.
NASDAQ 100 Sinks on AI Cost Woes - Full Target Breakthrough HIT!NASDAQ 100 (NDX) Analysis using Risological Swing Trader:
In the 15-minute timeframe, NASDAQ 100 (NDX) demonstrated a powerful bearish move, with all targeted profit levels being achieved in a swift drop. This short trade setup showed significant follow-through as investor sentiment shifted negatively due to concerns over escalating AI expenses reported by Wall Street's megacaps.
Key Highlights:
Entry Level: 20,429.42
Target Levels:
TP1: 20,323.94
TP2: 20,153.26
TP3: 19,982.58
TP4: 19,877.10
Stop Loss: 20,514.76
Context:
This bearish momentum aligns with Wall Street’s close on a lower note as major tech giants highlighted rising costs linked to AI developments. The day's range fluctuated between 19,880.26 and 20,227.19, underscoring the volatility and risk aversion among investors. The setup capitalized effectively on this negative sentiment, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
Summary:
This trade on NASDAQ 100 hit all targets with precision, benefiting from the broader market's reaction to heightened cost pressures in the tech sector. This downward move underscores the impact of macroeconomic concerns on equity performance, particularly in high-cost sectors like AI.
NAS100 - Is Optimism Faltering, or a Healthy Correction?20SMA - Blue
200SMA - Pink
Key Confluence Areas - Grey Lines
Market Structure Support/Resistance - Green/Red Dashed Lines
Your interest motivates me:
If you find my analysis helpful, please boost and follow me for future analysis at your service.
How I see it:
First a correction attempt, then continuation of the red game.
If 19600 confluence of support holds, we might see a short-term bullish reversal.
KEYNOTE:
This is NFP DAY!!, make sure you check your calendar before each session always!
I deeply appreciate you taking the time to study my analysis and point of view.
US100 Trade idea Nov last weekWe can see more volatility next week and we can see big moves ahead of election.
Trade with Sl
Mentioned three Scenarios for trading next week.
MS and META brought down the entire index
USTEC continued its decline following disappointing earnings from two major tech stocks. Despite Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) reporting earnings and revenue above expectations, Apple’s shares fell in after-hours trading due to weaker sales in China. Meanwhile, the VIX has climbed to its highest level since Aug, signaling potential headwinds as elections approach.
USTEC declined steeply and failed to hold the 20000 threshold. The index broke the channel’s lower bound, and EMA21 has death-crossed EMA78, sending a bearish signal.
If USTEC fails to re-enter the channel, the index's downtrend may extend to 19700.
Conversely, if USTEC breaches 20140 after re-entering the channel, the price may gain upward momentum to 20680.
NASDAQ is Approaching An Important SupportHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring NAS100 for a buying opportunity around 19600 zone, NASDAQ is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 19600 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
