NFLX Puts - Daily SZBuying Puts on NFLX once daily supply is hit. Entering using either a single leg or a debit spread to reduce risk & cost of trade. Larger target down to 505 on the single leg, target down to 560 on the debit spread
NFLX trade ideas
NFLX looking to Gap fill to the upsideNFLX on the Daily time frame seems to be going for gap fill to the upside now.
Immediate targets would be 585/590 and 605 eventually
Stops below 573
CMP 581 (pre-market)
Netflix FlexThis is not a flexing of the imagination project. You basically take a set of simulated projected potential future scenarios which also contains potential simulated future pivot points, or inflection moments, then you simulate a bunch of geometric objects which are basically just math functions, and you end up selecting the objects that hit the most points in the simulated scenarios, while also applying an algorithm that tries to select the most artistic of them all (/for the human eye).
In other words, this project is trying to catch at any of the elements in the snapshot: pivot points, turnarounds, bounces, reversals. These can be traded with Japanese Candlestick patterns, if such patterns occur at any of the shapes, with exit strategy using SL below the low or above the high of the entry signal candle. Best advised in this project to use quick trailing stop and securing profits or break even exit, because quick reversals in sentiment, zig zags, bounces, might occur, and are actually highly expected in the further evolution of this market.
You don't need to believe in the power of the nen math, therefore it is not required for you to risk your own money in this journey. Be skeptical, but give this project a chance. Grab your popcorn, sit back, relax, and enjoy the ride in this binge worthy experience.
Spoiler alert: surprises are coming. While nen principles strongly agree to the concept of not letting yourself be fooled by randomness, we also support a thorough investigation of the phenomenon of repeated coincidences and occurrences that might defy, or at least challenge, the basic laws of random events distribution in the context of the law of large numbers.
Big numbers coming ahead in this one.
NFLX is at the support of the POC line LONGNFLX on a 120 minute chart currently has price sitting on the POC line confluent with the
Fibonacci 0.5 level on the previous trend up that was before the trend down from around
the time of an earnings beat which was a disappointment because traders somehow expected
better. There is been some disappointment about NFLX keeping some of its subscriber trends
private. Not a surprise. Price has put in somewhat of an inverse head and shoulders or triple
bottom. The Lux Algo forecasting indicator expects a move up. I will take a long trade here.
I believe that this is a buyable dip.
NFLX is setting up for another gap down open next weekNFLX is setting up for another gap down open next week
Quite bearish action here, no longs for me until Jan gap close is closed
Netflix Once you realize you are in a correction, you can either:
1) Stick around and hope it resolves upwards
2) Exit and let the dust settle
The second option is NEVER wrong.
#nflx #netflix #nasdaq #ndx #tsla #tesla #intel #intc
A good place to buyWe see a bearish divergence in place. The stock might dip a bit further and the green rectangle represents a good buy.
NFLX 2024-04-22 probably found the support at $550NASDAQ:NFLX probably bounces up from here. If it could fall down more, $495 is the next support. Low-risk entry can be placed here at around $555, with stop at $535. However, the market is too volatile, it's better for wait for more consolidation.
Note: Do it as your own risk, this is not financial advice.
NFLX-SELL strategy weekly chartAs I have mentioned a few times, the share should move lower and the catalyst of non-reporting of new subscribers next year, did the trick. Lesser disclosure, means the market will not like it.
For now, we had a large decline, and there will be some minor recovery for a SELL strategy again.
Strategy SELL @ $ 575 - 590 and place SL above $ 650 and take profit @ $ 475.
NetflixNetflix 3 month Outlook for a bottom around 160. #netflix #nflx NASDAQ:NFLX #stockmarket #trader #investor
NFLX: Bullish dip?Friday was nasty for big tech. 10% drops in NFLX and NVDA got some people to fear for the worst. Is the market going to crash 90% now? Maybe not yet. Right now the price only retraced to 0.764 fib. I would expect a little more weakness next week and then a relief rally. Price should come down to about .618 fib retracement area where there is also some market structure support and take off from there. Weekly RSI is showing some bullish divergence, but not confirmed yet. As long as price doesn't fall through market structure supports and below $344, bull case is still on track to 2026 top. Good thing is that NFLX falls fast and recovers fast. Bad news is it is kinds difficult to time the short for this stock because it falls so quickly. So, I am not planning on shorting and also not worried yet on the long bag. Actually planning to add to the bag maybe another $30 below this level. We'll see how things go.
Netflix Tanks 7.26% on Tepid Forecast, New Support on the WayNetflix Inc. ( NASDAQ:NFLX ) experienced a sharp decline in share value on Friday as a result of its weak revenue forecast and plans to discontinue reporting subscriber numbers by 2025. Despite an otherwise strong start to the year, Netflix's lackluster forecast led to a 7.6% decline in premarket trading in New York, marking the biggest decline since July 2023. While the company surpassed expectations for its first quarter, it indicated that it expects a slower pace of growth moving forward, with subscriber gains anticipated to be lower and revenue expected to increase by 16%.
Netflix's decision to cease reporting quarterly membership and revenue per subscriber metrics from the first quarter of next year has also generated concern among industry analysts. These metrics have long been the primary way in which Wall Street has assessed the company's performance, and as such, the decision may be met with resistance. Netflix has sought to shift the focus to traditional measures of performance, such as sales and profit, but management will continue to report significant subscriber milestones.
Despite a slowdown in 2021 and 2022, Netflix ( NASDAQ:NFLX ) has experienced its fastest growth rate since the early days of the pandemic, largely due to its crackdown on account sharing. The company estimated that over 100 million people were using an account for which they did not pay, and by convincing these individuals to pay for access, Netflix has added 9.33 million customers in the first quarter of 2024, nearly doubling average analyst estimates of 4.84 million.
Netflix's strong slate of original programs has also contributed to its recent growth, with the company delivering a new hit every couple of weeks in 2024. The streaming service accounts for about 8% of TV viewing in the US and is a leading TV network in most of the world's major media markets. The company's recent performance has lifted its shares back toward record highs, giving it a market value of more than $260 billion.
While some analysts have raised concerns that Netflix is trading at a valuation that exceeds the fundamentals of the business, others have been impressed with the company's performance and have raised their price targets for investors. To sustain its growth in the future, Netflix has introduced a cheaper, advertising-supported version of its service targeting cost-conscious customers and has invested in live programming, including stand-up specials, wrestling, and an upcoming boxing match. The company has also reported that approximately 40% of its new customers are selecting the advertising option in markets where it is available, although the advertising tier remains small in comparison to online video giants like YouTube.
Technical Outlook
Netflix ( NASDAQ:NFLX ) stock has broken the ceiling of the rising trend channel on the verge of reaching a new support level at the $504 Pivot point. The stock is trading with a weak Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 25.75 indicating NASDAQ:NFLX stock is in the oversold territory. Traders need to be careful incase of a trend reversal after reaching the new support zone.
Investors are reacting irrationally? Would you buy the dip? Netflix shares are falling excessively, as its surprise move to stop sharing subscriber additions and average revenue per member from 2025 created doubts in investor minds about growth peaking in some markets for the streaming pioneer.
Investors are reacting irrationally by selling it hard now.
On the other hand, its downward price trajectory is making it more attractive to us contrarians.
Price has lost support of $574.
Next support and DCA buy zone is $496.
Ascending and descending price targets have been pointed out and mapped out
NFLX Stock Price Falls Despite Subscriber GrowthNFLX Stock Price Falls Despite Subscriber Growth
Yesterday, after the close of the main trading session on the stock market, Netflix reported to investors for the 1st quarter of 2024.
The report turned out better than expected:
→ earnings per share: actual = USD 5.28, forecast = USD 4.52;
→ gross income: actual = USD 9.40 billion, forecast = USD 9.27.
→ The number of subscribers increased by 9.3 million (expected +4.8 million).
However, NFLX's pre-market share price today is hovering around USD 580, about 6% below yesterday's closing price.
Negativity manifested itself in:
→ disappointing forecasts for the 2nd quarter;
→ investors also did not like the decision to stop providing quarterly reports on changes in the number of subscribers next year.
If NFLX stock opens today around the USD 580 level, then it would indicate that the market has moved down to the lower boundary of the parallel channel (shown in blue).
According to the technical analysis of NFLX stock:
→ a bearish gap may form on the chart, which is usually assessed as an obstacle to price growth;
→ the psychological level of USD 600 per NFLX share may act as resistance;
→ rounding pattern (shown by a red arc) – a sign of depletion of demand.
Even if the NFLX stock price forms a bounce from the lower boundary of the channel, bulls will have to contend with the technical hurdles outlined above. And also negative fundamental factors associated with the fact that the Fed will hold interest rates for a longer time.
According to the average consensus of analysts surveyed by TipRanks, the projected 12-month stock price for NFLX stock is USD 637.29.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NFLX Netflix Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven't entered NFLX in the buying zone:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of NFLX Netflix prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 607.50usd strike price at the money Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-4-19,
for a premium of approximately $26.50.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Netflix Faces Subscriber Growth Challenge Netflix has consistently set benchmarks and pushed boundaries. However, as the company gears up to report its earnings, a closer look reveals a nuanced landscape where subscriber growth is no longer a foregone conclusion. The once-lauded crackdown on password sharing, while initially boosting numbers, now presents a plateauing challenge. With the fervor of the pandemic waning, Netflix must navigate through shifting tides to sustain its momentum.
The Password-Sharing Conundrum
Netflix's recent surge in subscriber numbers was partly fueled by its global crackdown on password sharing. Yet, analysts warn that the euphoria from this initiative might be waning, especially in mature markets like the United States. While the crackdown may still yield results in burgeoning markets like India, it's evident that Netflix needs more than a singular strategy to fuel growth.
Diversification Beyond Traditional Models
In a bid to diversify revenue streams and cater to a wider audience, Netflix ( NASDAQ:NFLX ) has ventured into an ad-supported tier. With over 23 million monthly subscribers already onboard, this move marks a significant shift in its business model. Analysts predict that the ad-supported tier could play a pivotal role in mitigating churn and bolstering revenue in the years to come. Moreover, recent price hikes in premium plans could further incentivize users to opt for the ad-supported model, driving up average revenue per user.
Strategic Content Investment
Netflix's commitment to content remains unwavering, with projected investments reaching as high as $17 billion this year. Unlike its competitors, who are trimming content budgets to achieve profitability, Netflix ( NASDAQ:NFLX ) is doubling down on its content strategy. By retaining a flat spending trajectory, Netflix has managed to attract subscribers while securing rights to coveted content. The recent trend of competitors selling exclusive content to Netflix not only reduces churn but also underscores the company's dominance in the streaming arena.
Sports Entertainment: A New Frontier
In a strategic move to diversify its content portfolio, Netflix ( NASDAQ:NFLX ) has entered the realm of sports entertainment. The recent deal with World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE) signals Netflix's intent to tap into the lucrative sports entertainment market without bearing the exorbitant costs associated with traditional sports rights. By acquiring WWE's flagship program, "Raw," Netflix aims to leverage the inherent stickiness of sports content while aligning with its ethos of entertainment-centric programming.
Conclusion:
As Netflix ( NASDAQ:NFLX ) prepares to unveil its earnings report, the spotlight shines on its ability to innovate and adapt in a rapidly evolving landscape. While challenges loom, from plateauing subscriber growth to intensifying competition, Netflix's strategic diversification and unwavering commitment to content position it as a formidable force in the streaming industry. By embracing change, seizing opportunities, and staying true to its vision, Netflix ( NASDAQ:NFLX ) charts a course towards sustained growth and continued relevance in the ever-expanding world of streaming.
NFLX Bear Case ScenarioCould maintain this expanding megaphone structure and touch bottom before heading higher. This would have confluence with a bounce off the 1.618 fib.
3 Things to Take Note on Netflix's Earnings Release LaterNASDAQ:NFLX is gearing up to unveil its first-quarter financial results on Thursday, April 18, 2024, after the market closes. Get ready for a glimpse into the numbers, expert opinions, and key highlights to keep an eye on.
Earnings Estimates
Analysts have their sights set on Netflix reporting first-quarter revenue of $9.275 billion. In the same quarter last year, the streaming giant raked in $8.162 billion. Netflix has surpassed expectations in two out of the last four quarters, including the most recent fourth quarter. During its fourth-quarter earnings report, Netflix hinted at first-quarter revenue of $9.24 billion, representing a solid 13.2% year-over-year increase.
Analysts anticipate the company to post first-quarter earnings per share of $4.52, up from $2.88 in the corresponding period of the previous year. Netflix has exceeded analysts' earnings per share estimates in three of the past four quarters. The company's own guidance points toward first-quarter earnings per share of $4.49.
In the fourth quarter, Netflix scored a whopping 13.12 million net subscriber additions, bringing its total to a staggering 260.28 million subscribers. Although Netflix's guidance suggests a sequential decline in net subscriber adds, it is expected to outperform the 1.8 million net adds reported in the first quarter of 2023.
Password Sharing
Netflix's crackdown on password sharing and the introduction of an ad-supported plan could lead to even more positive outcomes. Netflix's actions have the potential to drive additional growth. Initially, around 100 million users were sharing their passwords, indicating ample room for subscriber additions in 2024. Besides, monetization through the ad tier and potential price increases might drive further revenue growth.
Another aspect to watch closely is Netflix's average revenue per member. The introduction of the ad tier and the potential for price hikes among subscribers could lead to increased monetization. With its ad-free mid-tier price in the U.S. currently lagging behind Hulu and Max, Netflix's growing base of ad tier users presents more potential for volume and pricing power in the thriving advertising market. Notably, Netflix has not raised prices on its Standard plan since January 2022, making a price increase seem imminent.
Subscribers’ Growth
Netflix subscriber growth in the first quarter might be overly optimistic. While sentiment around Netflix improved significantly after the impressive net add numbers in the fourth quarter, the question remains: how much upside to the estimated 4.5 million net adds for Q1 can be achieved.
Summary
The net subscriber count will undoubtedly steal the spotlight, followed closely by the potential announcement of a subscriber price increase, which could make waves in the headlines. Additionally, keep an eye on Netflix's foray into the world of sports. Rather than aggressively bidding for full seasons of live sports, the company has opted for captivating one-off events and sports docuseries. Netflix recently showcased a live tennis event in March and is eagerly awaiting a highly anticipated live boxing match between Mike Tyson and Jake Paul on July 20, which could go down as one of the company's most significant sports events to date. Moreover, Netflix's dominance in the sector and its perspective on market share and competition are topics that could provide valuable insights into its strategy.
Get ready for Netflix's first-quarter results—a thrilling glimpse into the streaming giant's performance, projections, and strategic moves.
Netflix Q124 earnings preview – subscribing to volatility Release time – Thursday on the market close (6 am AEST / 9 pm UK time)
Netflix is one of the preeminent trading stocks - where we often see big movement, a high propensity to trend and sizeable intraday high-low daily ranges that can appeal to the day traders.
With Q124 earnings due on Thursday and the possibility of another sizeable price catalyst, Netflix is a stock that should be on the radar.
Netflix is already something of a market darling, where the share price has significantly outperformed the S&P500 by 19.6 percentage points over the last 3 months and by some 51.7 percentage points over six months.
Going into this earnings release, with price having recently traded to a multi-year high of $639, we now see consolidation with price tracking a range of $639 to $600, and importantly holding above the 50-day MA ($601.12), which has been a solid trend filter since October.
We can see the Bollinger Bands tightening up into Q1 earnings as price moves remain contained to the 20-day MA, and traders refrain from taking risks until the facts are known. A daily close above/below the bands and/or the recent trading range could be meaningful and could suggest a higher probability that we see a trend develop, which could be a compelling hunting ground for more momentum-styled traders.
Earnings pedigree
Netflix does have a strong pedigree at earnings, having beaten consensus expectations in 7 of the past 8 quarterly earnings reports. Many will also recall the Q423 earnings report where NFLX added 13.1m paid streaming subscribers, a number well above expectations and subsequently, the shares rallied strongly.
NFLX has a history of pronounced movement on earnings, with double-digit percentage moves in the prior 2 reporting quarters (on the day of earnings) and taking the period out the absolute move has averaged -/+ 12.8%. Being able to capture that movement in the post-market session is important for traders, and despite a potentially fast-moving market, there should be ample liquidity.
By way of expectations of price movement for this earnings report, we can look at the options market and asses the implied move on the day of earnings, which now currently stands at -/+ 8.1%.
This level of implied volatility speaks to the view that we could easily see movement in the share price once the earnings and guidance are known and could offer opportunity, but it is also a risk that those with existing positions may need to manage.
What to watch this time around?
For CFD traders going through the finer details of cash flow, subscribers’ numbers and sales growth seems a tough proposition. This is why most will let the market tell them how they feel about the shape of the business, and dynamically react to the ensuing price action.
However, by way of a kicker, the likely overriding driver will be quarterly subscriber adds and any guidance for Q224 subscribers. The consensus (from investment bank analysts) is for 4.77m net subscriber adds in Q1, with 3.7m pencilled in Q2. The view on the street is this is a low-ball call – which won’t surprise given NFLX have beaten consensus expectations for sub growth for three quarters in a row - and investors are positioned for a number closer to 7m, even 8m.
On headline Q1 earnings estimates, the consensus view is we for:
Earnings per share (EPS) - $4.54 (Q224 estimates $4.55)
Revenue - $9.264b (Q224 estimates $9.50b)
Free cash flow - $1.89b (Q224 estimates $1.50b)
There will be a focus on the crackdown on password sharing and how that is impacting earnings, competition, ad-supported tier, and commentary on unique programming.
The consensus 12-month price target for NFLX is $626, so I question if there is scope for a solid earnings re-rating, which could see these targets revised higher. That said, price targets are largely irrelevant for traders, and price will react far quicker than any analyst can change their models. The market will let us know about the earnings and the operating environment and the price could see some outsized moves – one to put on the radar.
NFLX set up for a dip buy before the next earnings LONGNFLX has added 20% to price in the two months since the last earnings which were decent
but not remarkable. The 2H chart shows a dip of about $20 per share coincident with a fall
from the second upper VWAP line to support from the first upper VWAP line. The zero lag
MACD shows line rising over the horizontal zero level in perhaps a sign of bullish divergence.
The lines are now over the low amplitude histogram. I will take a long trade here targeting
$650. Recent news is the CEO sold 20,000 shares out of the 12,000,000 that he has control
of. Nothing unusual there. His friends and others ( myself included) may be buying the dip.
Worth a shot - NFLX short at 1:1The crazy run up of NFLX has been an almost straight line - which always makes me suspicious. To my observation retracement-less runs are mostly corrective. A healthy impulsive move has significant retracements (ie. Wave 2 is normally 61.8% by the books). Also noteworthy that the May 9, 2022 low is extremely oversold and the stock bounced without RSI divergence. Also per my observation, these OS (and OB) peaks are sooner or later taken out. Per the above points I will try for a short on this one at the 1:1. No idea what the catalyst would be, it is technical speculation.
Netflix : Is a Major Market Correction coming? 📉Following our last analysis, Netflix has precisely achieved the forecasted targets, with the wave ((iii)) extending to 227 to 261%. This suggests that a correction towards wave ((iv)) might be imminent, expected to range between 38% and 61.8%, thus laying the groundwork for a wave 5 and the culmination of a significant cycle in the form of a potential wave (2).
A closer examination of the daily chart reinforces our primary scenario: the completion of Wave II at the low of $162.80. We are currently in the process of developing Wave (1), followed by Wave (2), and so forth.
In our alternative scenario, we consider the possibility of a Regular Flat, especially when analyzing the complex correction currently unfolding. This might indicate that rather than concluding Wave (2) at $162.80, it was actually Wave (A), and we are now witnessing Wave (B) achieving exactly 100% of Wave I. Such alignment could signal a 5-wave decline towards a double bottom, marking a significant correction of 70%.
While such a correction would be substantial, it is essential to explore all scenarios to be prepared for any market developments. Despite the potential for a significant pullback, our underlying outlook remains optimistic, expecting a continued upward momentum for Netflix.
