America’s Energy Reset: New Momentum for Oil and Gas Under TrumpKey Players in the Energy Landscape
Trump’s recent executive orders mark a significant shift in U.S. energy policy, dismantling key initiatives from the prior administration while opening new avenues for fossil fuel growth. The Biden-era target of boosting electric vehicle SPARKS:EVX (EV) sales to 50% of the total by 2030 has been scrapped, along with EV subsidies, signaling a retreat from clean energy priorities. In its place, the administration has lifted a moratorium on new permits for liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to non-free-trade-agreement countries, a move that builds on progress already underway among companies navigating early-stage approvals. This pro-energy stance is also drawing attention from abroad. Foreign firms, such as the Emirates-based ADNOC, are eyeing U.S. natural resources, with its international investment arm, XRG-managing roughly $80 billion in assets as of April 2025-planning substantial investments in the coming months and even exploring an initial public offering.
The push extends to infrastructure, with Trump championing the revival of domestic pipelines and LNG export facilities, notably a proposed Alaskan project. Global LNG demand is projected to climb 50% by 2040 compared to 2020 levels, according to the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook 2024, positioning companies like Cheniere Energy NYSE:LNG , a leader in LNG production and exports, and TotalEnergies, a global heavyweight in LNG infrastructure, as prime beneficiaries. Cheniere Energy’s stock has risen 20% year-to-date in 2025, reflecting investor confidence in the expanding LNG market. Exxon Mobil NYSE:XOM and Chevron also stand out, with Exxon aiming to nearly double its LNG business to 40 million tons per year by 2030, as outlined in its 2024 annual report. These higher-margin producers are well-equipped to weather market shifts. However, Trump’s tariff policies, intended to lower oil and gasoline CAPITALCOM:GASOLINE prices while enhancing the global reach of U.S. oil firms, introduce a countercurrent. Voters may cheer cheaper gas, but subdued oil prices could squeeze lower-margin producers like Occidental Petroleum, Valero Energy NYSE:VLO , and Marathon Oil BIVA:MRO , who may struggle to maintain profitability in such an environment. For instance, Occidental Petroleum’s debt-to-equity ratio stands at 1.2 in Q1 2025, making it vulnerable to sustained low oil prices.
A Long-Term Fossil Fuel Horizon
Looking ahead, Trump’s energy directives seem poised to foster a steady uptick in domestic fossil fuel production. U.S. oil PYTH:WTI3! production hit a record 13.5 million barrels per day in March 2025, up from 12.8 million in December 2024, per the Energy Information Administration (EIA), signaling a robust response to the administration’s policies. By streamlining permitting processes and cutting bureaucratic hurdles, these orders pave the way for expanded extraction and infrastructure development. Active drilling rigs have increased by 10% since January 2025, according to Baker Hughes’ rig count reports, indicating heightened exploration and production activity. The emphasis on pipelines and LNG facilities suggests a future rich with gas-related investments, reinforcing the sector’s backbone. In 2025, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) approved three new LNG export terminals, adding an anticipated 30 million tons per year to export capacity by 2030. Over time, this could solidify the U.S. as a fossil fuel powerhouse, capitalizing on both immediate opportunities and the projected surge in LNG demand. The administration’s focus on reducing red tape offers a practical boost, potentially unlocking projects that might otherwise languish in regulatory limbo, setting the stage for sustained growth in oil and gas output.
Balancing Executive Orders Against Tariffs
While tariffs loom as a potential challenge across various industries, their impact on U.S. oil companies appears muted. Unlike consumer goods sectors reliant on imports, the U.S. energy industry benefits from robust domestic equipment and infrastructure providers like Halliburton and Schlumberger. Together, these firms hold over 60% of the U.S. oilfield services market, as reported by Rystad Energy in 2025, underscoring the sector’s self-reliance. Moreover, over 90% of equipment used in U.S. oil and gas operations is domestically produced, according to a 2024 American Petroleum Institute (API) study, further insulating the industry from import tariffs. This self-sufficiency softens the blow of tariffs, minimizing dependence on foreign energy-related imports. Consequently, even a modest positive effect from Trump’s executive orders-through faster permits or expanded LNG exports-could tip the scales toward a net gain for the sector. The deregulation push offers a tangible advantage that, in this context, seems likely to outweigh any tariff-related headwinds, providing oil companies with a favorable outlook despite broader trade uncertainties.
