NVDA at a Decision Point! Trade Setups for Feb. 20Technical Analysis (TA) Overview
NVDA is currently trading near 138-139, consolidating after a strong uptrend. It recently rejected from 141, which aligns with a key gamma resistance level. If bulls can push above 141, momentum could continue toward 143-150. However, failure to hold current levels may lead to a deeper pullback toward 130-123 support levels.
📌 Key Support & Resistance Levels:
* Resistance: 141 (gamma resistance), 143.44 (previous high), 150 (major call wall)
* Support: 137, 129-130 (first demand zone), 123 (major put support)
📌 Indicators:
* MACD: Bearish crossover—momentum is slowing.
* Stoch RSI: Oversold at 17.34, meaning downside may be limited, but no immediate reversal yet.
* Volume Profile: Price is at a high-volume node, meaning consolidation or a breakout attempt is likely soon.
Gamma Exposure (GEX) & Options Sentiment
🔹 Call Walls (Resistance):
* 141: Strong gamma resistance—breakout level for bulls.
* 150: Major call wall—tough level to break unless momentum strengthens.
🔹 Put Walls (Support):
* 130: First put support—likely to hold on a pullback.
* 123-120: Deeper put walls—if 130 breaks, downside could accelerate.
🔹 Options Sentiment:
* IVR: 42.3 (moderate implied volatility—expect bigger moves).
* Call Open Interest: 19.1% – Moderate bullish bias, but not extreme.
Trade Scenarios for Tomorrow
✅ Bullish Setup:
* If NVDA breaks above 141, expect a push toward 143-150.
* Ideal entry: Above 141, stop-loss below 139.
* Profit targets: 143.44, 145, 150 (extension).
❌ Bearish Setup:
* If NVDA fails at 141 and breaks below 138, expect a move toward 130-123.
* Ideal entry: Below 138, stop-loss above 140.
* Profit targets: 130, 127, 123.
Probability Estimate for NVDA’s Next Move: Bullish Move Above 141 (Targets 143-150)
Scenario Probability (%): 50%
Reasoning: NVDA is in a strong uptrend but faces key gamma resistance at 141.
• Needs strong volume to break through 141-143 levels. | | Choppy/Sideways (Range 137-141) | 30% |
Volume profile suggests heavy trading activity around 138-140, meaning price may consolidate.
* MACD suggests weak momentum, signaling possible chop before a breakout. | | Bearish Breakdown Below 138 (Targets 130-123) | 20% | - Bearish MACD crossover signals weakening momentum.
* If 138 fails, expect downside toward 130-123 levels. |
Final Thoughts
* NVDA needs to break 141 to continue higher toward 143-150.
* If 138 breaks, selling pressure could increase, pushing price to 130-123.
* IVR is moderate, meaning larger moves are possible, but momentum needs to pick up.
🔹 Best Trading Plan:
* Bullish Play: Look for a breakout above 141 → target 143-150.
* Bearish Play: Watch for rejection at 141 or a break below 138 → target 130-123.
🚨 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research and trade with proper risk management.
