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NXT trade ideas

1/28/25 - $nxt - Long like a clown.1/28/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:NXT Long like a clown. - i'm breaking some risk mgmt rules here b/c i'm still pulling 10% ytd even after y'day's massive give-back. - have dumped my NASDAQ:NVDA (juice that i added y'day) and a lot of the NYSE:TSM and a few others. even some $btc. - while i don't claim to know how the stock will trade this result, let's make a few things abundantly clear: 1/ this company has a track record of beating, beating, beating. could they miss? backlog shrink. sure. 2/ is industrial solar a rising tide besides what agent orange and oil mafia, nuclear bros say? yes. it's literally unstoppable. 3/ highest ROIC in the industry, nearly 100% FCF conversion and 15-20% fcf mgns. 4/ net cash 5/ and perhaps the most understated fact: dan (the man) shugar, ceo, founded this co with 4 mm dollars over 10 yrs ago. he remains at the helm and he's been ripping the ball off the cover for this long. you couldn't find a more capable leader and track record. all these tech-bros saying "founder led". idk why nxt always gets missed, but consider it a blessing. ... so while we could yank up down and all 'round. while energy is getting crushed b/c 'muh datacenter needs less AI bc CCP's LLM... newsflash: datacenters don't run on solar. they *will* and it will be incremental lin a few years come battery tech, but rn that's purely incremental. the mkt is forecasting 10-15% top line growth for best in class solar names. but reality is, we're climbing the S-curve, not past the mid-way point, and the best. is yet. to. come. so will this Q be another beat and rip? god knows. but my bags are packed, because i won't be able to look myself squarely in the face having done the work, understanding 8% fcf yields and 10% growth rates for a tech-infra-enabler climbing the S-curve as a leader... were missed because y'day we a tough day. we all have tough days. i survived. we risk managed. we took some ST gains from the risk we put on last night into the close. and we move on. and today that play is $nxt. if it works, great. if not, we sort it out and work thru it. i like this one, for myself. have a look and do your own research. the only miss here, is not taking a look. be blessed, godspeed. see u all in the morning V
NASDAQ:NXTLong
by VROCKSTAR
2
12/6/24 - $nxt - Reloaded the cannon ~$36- a name i've written most about - have traded it around, but remained pretty large (since the big eps pop i've taken some off the table to play some btc related stuff, some win's, some L's across the board) - but at this level ~50% retrace from pre-EPS to post-EPS peak, you're looking at $6 of upside/ vs $6 of downside. why this is important is that this is a name where you can feel comfortable buying lower with conviction so the risk weighted up/downside is probably now a 2-1 in the ST. - but zoom out. - stock does about $3 of cash (literally one of the best free cash flow converters i've come across... net income -> cash). HIGH ROE's on this puppy. growing backlog. great CEO. leader in the tracker category set to dominate the software side of biz in the coming years. - so 10% fcf yield on a 10-15% grower is simply put... an extended black friday cyber monday sale. - if the market dumps, you can expect this one probably remains a weak link, unfortunately. the solar factor remains a tough one to own - while most ppl on this site are all about TA, lines and px action (and this matters in the ST - much more than valuation - price is king)... i'm more of a fundamental guy (always have been) and use TA as the icing on the cake. won't lie TA looks thumbs down here all else equal. but for such a unique asset, i'm greedy when others are buying bags off 50x sales co's (enjoy lol). that's all. have a great weekend. V PS - my weapon of choice is the jan 15 2027 $25C's. i've been basically making the mkt in these things for a while - so the last month(s) that's me... :P
NASDAQ:NXTLong
by VROCKSTAR
10/31/24 - $nxt - the best is yet to come10/31/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:NXT the best is yet to come - went all in a week back. mission accomplished. - and i'm not leaving after today's crusher a few points: - this is a highly shorted stock, in the ST it could waffle and weave so any dips let's say sub $34 can now be bought with absolute conviction, cash generation is only increasing, backlog is picking up and as dan shugar(star - as i call him) puts it "we've never been in a better position". IN A LOWER SOLAR TIDE ( NASDAQ:ENPH , NASDAQ:FSLR , other consumer higher valued, missing)... NASDAQ:NXT is still CRUSHING the ball so a/ in an environment where solar rips, we now know where the incremental flows go, the smaller market cap ($5 bn and probably going to $10 by YE '25), better balance sheet, home run hitting nextracker. but remember, rates matter - they're going higher - so passive stuff will keep this beachball probably under this potential for some time. at the same time, we are going to get some permabids on this after they destroyed a "weak" expected quarter. - if this quarter tells us anything, it's that mgmt is v conservative. and their speech implies that 2H is probably underestimating what they'll report as well (there's a nuance here when you listen to the conference call). enjoy. V
NASDAQ:NXTLong
by VROCKSTAR
12
10/10/24 - $nxt - 25% position. LFG.- today NASDAQ:NXT became a 25% position. for me that's huge, i only do this where i've a/ done the work and b/ have conviction in the price i'm paying - in a market that's nosebleeding daily, could a 10% pullback on the index further wreck names that are on their backs 20%? sure. come on guys, anything possible in this world. - but do i think that next year's $3.5/shr in EPS is high quality and mostly cash (no stock comp issue, good FCF conversion e.g. net income -> cash flow)... yes - so say $3 of EPS on a net cash adjusted stock (read- no dilution) of $30 today... 10% cash yields on the only solar name a/ growing this year and b/ poised to further expand int'l in the coming years. attractive. - again, i think this is a $45/shr stock (minimally) which is 15x that $3 and barely a 1.5x PEG. that's in today's terms. so from $34 to high 20s? max pain mid 20s? par for today's course. the risk/reward from an upside/ downside perspective if moving toward 3-1 in my estimation. i've even been trimming some of my OTC:GDLC and OTC:BITW (good moves BTW!) to pay for larger $nxt. now *that's* rare... when i sell some CRYPTOCAP:BTC to buy something. i'm also maintaining still high cash balance (that allows me to make a big move like today)... so i'm 25% cash still. be safe out there. V
NASDAQ:NXTLong
by VROCKSTAR
1
9/3/24 - $nxt - Topping off at $379/3/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:NXT Topping off at $37 - not much has changed in terms of my fundamental view since my last post sub $40 on aug 14th where i made this top pick - this risk off today seems like a factor of nvda/ semi's driving degrossing across the board - have written extensively about getting cashy. if you're in a position where you were fully invested into today, it's tougher to re-arrange the deck and consolidate positions (but perhaps it's a good consideration). - if you ARE cashy, today is a good day that i'd be adding to NASDAQ:NXT for personal stack. - could it go lower? yes my friend, all things can go all over the place. this is a weird game where we don't make the rules and where the rules change and we are price takers. but let's make one thing clear, it's these whacky days where it merits a look. another look. do you know what you own? if so, that's the conviction you need to weather these risk storms. onward and upward, eventually. i'll be here rooting you on. V
NASDAQ:NXTLong
by VROCKSTAR
8/14/24 - $nxt - Top pick sub $408/14/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:NXT Top pick sub $40 - find it so tough to find stocks that check most nevermind all of these boxes A) beating earnings consistently and by a large margin B) growing at high (high) double digits C) tech solution providers and C.2) that are NOT being disrupted by AI, D) i like the mgmt and E) valuation is very reasonable, which includes awesome cash gen. - we can talk on all other topics. industry ebb and flow. cycle timing. state of the tape. balance sheet specifics (nxt is nicely net cash) - but realistically when i think "where are we today" i need to ask myself if i'd feel comfortable taking a 20% drawdown and adding. for many names that i like, the answer to this question *has* to be yes. EVEN IF i think i'm buying value + growth today, and unless there's something fundamentally that's changed... "would i be buying lower" has to be "yes". not "i'd keep holding" but "i'd add". that's how i determine larger sized positions today. - could we go to the low FWB:30S ? yes. anything can happen. is it probable? i'd say 50% chance. - but what's this thing worth that's crushing EPS, cash flow conversion (net income -> free cash flow) is 80+%... and you're growing double digit in a category that is finally catching it's wings? i'd posit 1.5x PEG on $4 of EPS power puts this at 10% cagr (too low/ but for conservatism) times 1.5x PEG = 15x on $4 = $60. $60 is what i believe is the fair value today. but the market will say "muh regulation", "muy election", "muy tape risk". and this is all valid. it's valid if you have a short term perspective and are forced to make money today. if you're fully invested, not nimble and don't rotate and size properly. but the market is just that. it will do what it wants in the short term. - and you better believe $30 would be an absolute steal for these results, a great chart (dented by tape risk/ industry peers sucking wind out of flows, that's all). - so here i am pounding the table on this. i topped it off at $38 today to keep the size at 5%. it's now my largest position. and i'm fully prepared to size it up lower. i'd look to add at $36 (to 6%), at $35 (to 7%), at $34 (to 8%), $33 (to 9%) and below $32 i'm at 10%. i'll need to assess how/ why if we get there my M.O. but that's what my game plan is today 8/14. i'd likely be doing a lot more work as this size starts to increase. - i love having large positions w/ conviction that i think are LT compounders and unique moats. NASDAQ:NXT checks those boxes. and we can start to monetize it in '25 if/as it starts to run above 50... about OTM c's for income. etc. etc. - but for now it's blocking, tackling and staying solvent and remaining level headed when the market is giving us curveballs and weird reads on macros. keep your eye on the ball. this pitch is still coming at me. but i'm looking at you center field. have a nice night and blessed rest of the week tell someone u love them. i love those of u who made it this far. i appreciate your DMs and comments. V
NASDAQ:NXTLong
by VROCKSTAR
6
6/28/24 - $nxt - rebuilding position again <$476/28/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:NXT rebuilding position again <$47 encourage you to read the long thread i wrote when i took the position back in may around results. the tl;dr is ... in near $40, out near $60 bc had gone too far too fast. i'm coming back to this in a smaller size ~50 bps near the $47 line. i STILL believe this tape is going to be SUPER brutal for anything that's not mega tech, and especially higher cost of capital industries like solar. HOWEVER, i fundamentally believe solar sits at the beginning of it's decades plus S-curve/ adoption. and NASDAQ:NXT simply has the best IP in the industry. it's the best stock to own and also the most expensive for a good reason. but 15x for something that - is the only solar w/o trough results in '24 (growing instead!) - high quality IP - opex inflection just mounting and mounting - good capital stack (no debt issues) - 400 mm of L12M fcf... on 7 bn of enterprise value gets you still > 5% yield on an asset growing like a weed - a buy so where's the place you'd load up? probably sub $40 and in the $30s. but having now seen - how they can just beat and beat and beat - the stock trades... it WANTS to go higher - and my view on the biz/ outlook i'm re-initiating my position here at 50 bps. it's not a trading position, so i'll be adding the lower we go and finding opportunistic spots to add. my solar pecking order is NASDAQ:NXT > NASDAQ:ENPH > NASDAQ:SHLS as you might know i've traded NASDAQ:SHLS w/ calls helping support my entry/ and no longer own it NASDAQ:NXT is currently (as of rn) the only solar name in my portfolio and in light of this whack tape, the only one i can justify owning b/c of it's superior quality. lmk if u agree/ disagree V
NASDAQ:NXTLong
by VROCKSTAR
5/14/24 - $nxt - long the print, tough sector... but best horse5/14/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:NXT - industrial solar w/ unique IP/ solution and the best industry growth likely has the fewest overhangs as well as bagholders involved. while anyone can see rates picture limits investments industry-wide, these guys should continue to grow through the '24 trough (not the case for... any other solar i can find, esp the consumer ones). 14x next year EPS isn't cheap, esp bc we aren't growing much beyond DD+. Also FCF seems to be nicely flowing down from NI without a ton of obvious dilution, but 3-5% yield isn't "great" (it usually isn't for co's that are winners bc the stocks are expensive for a good reason - they can continue to compound and grow into these valuations). so this hinges on the Q and the beat vs. miss. if there's even a small indication that growth is possibly lower going fwd, i could easily see the stock down double digits+ and this would be an excellent way to play the print on the long front without taking excess risk. however, similar to my call on $NASDAQ:ONON, i see more likelihood that the # looks better and it's a hiding spot with look-thru risk and possibly the best in class name right now in solar that will command super-premium multiples as we approach rate cuts in 2H of the year and so the '25 stock tgt all else equal could easily be ATH+ which i think is >50% scenario vs. a 50% decline here in the meanwhile (and if it's macro related - this is also an obvious place to average into a lower basis). not the most obvious setup b/c they *do* have 30% of the capital stack as debt which is a no-go in this tape, or a real negative factor impacting stonks that miss or don't really beat. however, i'm willing to overlook b/c the growth engine + cash gen + outlook appears to be there.
NASDAQ:NXTLong
by VROCKSTAR
2
Nextracker: Solar Uptrend Taking Shape?Nextracker went public in early 2023, which were dark days for solar energy. However, some traders may see brighter times as the industry rallies. The first pattern on today’s chart is the series of higher lows since early last year. Is a longer-term uptrend taking shape? Second, the most recent trough occurred near the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Its 50-day SMA is also above the 200-day SMA. Those are also potentially consistent with an upward trajectory. Third, prices rallied after most of the quarterly reports. That may reflect optimism about its fundamentals. NXT is a relatively new company whose systems keep panels pointed at the sun. It mostly serves large utility-scale projects and not residential installations. Its niche, which includes Array Technologies NASDAQ:ARRY , has recently strengthened as AI fuels power demand. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. See our Overview for more. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
NASDAQ:NXT
by TradeStation