$OLLI bearish rising wedgeDoing some more homework here, NASDAQ:OLLI seems to be in a bearish rising wedge and broke out of it on the downside. Unusual flow I seen while doing my due diligence coming in sweeps and At Ask and Above Ask which indicates aggressive buying; looking to get in at any cost. I am seeing 100% Buys vs. Sells, flow is bearish sentiment, sweeps and roughly a total of $200K in premium. The stock jumped off earnings with revenue missing by over a 1% but earnings was below 1%. The dates here are Jan. 17th, 2025 and a Feb. 21st, 2025. I will be giving these a shot for a small bargain. Will update.
WSL
OLLI trade ideas
✅ STOCK REVIEW: $OLLIThis week, we initiated a cautious buying strategy for NASDAQ:OLLI as it retracted to a strategic entry point, referred to as the low cheat for those who have read the Minervini books.
THE BUY
The buy signal was activated on February 20th when its price surpassed the peak from February 16th. Although our entry price at $79.18 was slightly higher than anticipated, we limited our purchase to a quarter of the planned position, setting a stop-loss at $72.30, which equates to a risk of 8.64%.
FOLLOW THROUGH ACTION
After the stock remained within the range of the breakout bar for a couple of days, it began to ascend, prompting us to increase our stake at $81.84. Consequently, we adjusted the stop-loss for the entire position to $73.80. Our strategy of gradual investment as the stock moves in our favor has allowed us to hold a half position with an adjusted average risk of 8.28%.
Analyzing the chart, a decline to our stop-loss level would suggest an unusual market behavior, indicating a potential misjudgment in our timing. Ideally, the stock would stabilize around $83.20, enabling us to escalate our investment to a full position while minimizing risk by adjusting the stop-loss.
Our proactive and incremental buying approach positions us advantageously, allowing for early entry without necessitating the formation of a handle. Despite an incomplete Stage 2 subsequent confirmations have reinforced our initial purchase decision.
Ollie's Bargain (OLLI) Rides on Business Model, Customer ReachOllie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. OLLI continues to excel due to its unique business model of "buying cheap and selling cheap." This approach, combined with cost-containment efforts, a focus on store productivity and the expansion of its customer loyalty program, Ollie's Army, has solidified its position in the market. The company’s success can be attributed to its ability to offer compelling deals that resonate well with consumers. No wonder, Ollie's Bargain’s favorable vendor relationships are also a key to growth.
Business Model Resonates Well With Customers
Ollie's Bargain’s focus on value-driven merchandise assortments positioned it well to capitalize on opportunities in the marketplace and effectively meet consumer demand. Ollie's Army continued to be a major sales driver, with membership increasing continuously. The company ended the second quarter of fiscal 2023 with 13.5 million active Ollie's Army members, which accounted for slightly more than 80% of sales.
Ollie's Bargain’s commitment to providing brand-name and closeout merchandise at attractive price points has resulted in favorable responses from customers. The company remains steadfast in its commitment to delivering superior deals, enhancing operating margins and expanding its store network. Ollie's Bargain stands to benefit from a favorable closeout environment and increased trade-down activity, aligning with its growth objectives.
This company has set ambitious targets for fiscal 2023, with net sales projected between $2.076 billion and $2.091 billion, marking a significant increase compared to the $1.827 billion reported in fiscal 2022. Ollie's Bargain also anticipates a robust improvement in comparable store sales in the range of 4-4.5%, a noteworthy turnaround from the 3% decline reported in the previous fiscal year.
Store Growth Opportunities
In terms of store expansion, Ollie's Bargain plans to have more than 1,050 stores in the long run, aiming to open 50 to 55 stores annually. Ollie's Bargain increased its store base at a CAGR of 11.5% from 303 stores in fiscal 2018 to 468 stores in fiscal 2022.
In the preceding two fiscal years, Ollie's Bargain opened 40 and 46 stores, respectively. Looking at fiscal 2023, the company plans to open 45 new stores, offset by one closure, and remodel 30 to 40 stores. Management's strategy for the year includes opening 23 new stores in the third quarter.
Importantly, Ollie's Bargain's new store real estate model prioritizes flexibility and focuses on the store size between 25,000 and 35,000 square feet. The company targets new store sales of about $4 million in the first full year of operations.
Ollie's Bargain’s strategic endeavors position the stock firmly for growth. Based in Harrisburg, PA, the company has defied industry trends, with its stock rallying by an impressive 52.5% year to date against the industry's 27.8% decline.
OLLI Ollie's Bargain Outlet Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain of OLLI Ollie's Bargain Outlet prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 60usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-6-16,
for a premium of approximately $1.70.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
WATCH $OLLIBullish
Fundamental
- High inflationary Macro environment / no fear sentiment
- Funds Accumulation/Distribution
- Decent PE
- Negative PEG
- Decent P/FCF
- Top Sector / Industry / Leader
- 5/5 rules
Technical
- Momentum Theory Indicator - bottomed
- Price action formation ( falling wedge )
- Broke Trend line
- Above 200MA
- Above POC
- ST ok
Entry idea
- For members
Stop loss depending on entry and risk appetite. But always set meaningful stops.
"The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second best time is now."
Cheers and happy trading!
$OLLI Is This Breakout Real?$OLLI looks like it has broken out with both higher low and a higher high. This may be entering an early stage 2 which is where you want to be. I am already long this position and will be adding if we can make yet another higher high then another higher low. TBD. See chart for analysis. Ideas, not investing / trading advice. If you make a trade in this, make it your own according to your rules.
$OLLI oversold and cheapOllie's has been beaten down for a while now. Sitting at $65 is pretty cheap. It has a buy rating through my firm and personally I think its a good business model. I really like TJX, AMZN, and other retailers but I do also enjoy finding cheap companies. Be careful with the recent rise in rates that could cause this to drop further. GLL!
PAY to OLLIES BARGAIN OUTLET HLDGS DailyHey guys, OLLIES BARGAIN OUTLET HLDGS is in a fake bearish setup with some sort of upside down hammer candle and low trade sell volume. Zooming in on the TIMEFRAME M1 we observed a marubozu with a large volume of purchase issued, it is in full breakage of the base of the bollinger to get to the highest of it. In order to go and test the VWAP and sit on the top of the balance zone to test it again. Great potential for price breakout with the return of momentum from this area to move into another and reach the next high. With the first higher (in TIMEFRAME H4) + excess before breakout of a zone of equilbre and the next (in TIMEFRAME H1) addition of an excess. Not enough force to test the intermediate median of ANDREWS PITCHFORK.
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$OLLI HUGE SLEEPER????Possible IH&S volume came in did break out and looks like a retest on the weekly time frame, may also look like an ugly cup and handle overall looking it if that level can hold if not its a nice short to the .5 Fib, indicators aren't telling me much but the chart does look nice!(edited)
January 10, 2021