PANW – ABCDE Pattern Nearing BreakoutWe're tracking Palo Alto Networks (PANW) on the 5-minute chart, showing a textbook ABCDE triangle formation.
Leg E is nearly complete, with price respecting the rising support line and volume compressing.
We expect a potential breakout above $194.30, with first target at $195.50 (TP1)
and extended targets at $208 and $220, depending on post-earnings momentum.
Setup Highlights:
Symmetrical triangle with well-defined legs
RSI holding between 55–60 → healthy pre-breakout energy
Low volume → potential energy build-up before move
Invalidation if price breaks below $192.70 – setup is off.
"No FOMO. No guessing. Just structure and confirmation."
We don’t chase the move – we position for the breakout.
PANW trade ideas
Quick flip idea - long at 181.26Today was a rough day for the market, but rough days are opportunities. Days like this require confidence in what you do, though. For me, confidence comes from data. Could there be more downside ahead? Yep. Taking the time to mine data to understand whether what you are doing has been successful in past circumstances where corrections have been involved helps me trade with confidence in these situations.
Since May of 2022, this particular setup is 20-1 and has an average return of 1.82% in and average of under 9 trading days. That's over 4x the average daily return of the market overall. Of the 21 trades, all but 3 closed in 6 trading days or less, with 10 of them closing in one day. During that same time, PANW had corrections of 10% or more over a dozen times, and several 20%+ drops. Those results give me confidence that the trade will work out, and more likely than not, do so quickly.
I normally don't trade stocks right after earnings, I usually like to wait 3 days for selling pressure to subside, but this setup has proven successful regardless of the proximity to earnings. In fact, some of its best returns are from just after earnings.
Per my usual strategy, I'll add to my position at the close on any day it still rates as a “buy” and I will use FPC (first profitable close) to exit any lot on the day it closes at any profit.
As always - this is intended as "edutainment" and my perspective on what I am or would be doing, not a recommendation for you to buy or sell. Act accordingly and invest at your own risk. DYOR and only make investments that make good financial sense for you in your current situation.
PANW - Upside remain strong NASDAQ:PANW has turned positive and is still lagging behind its peer NASDAQ:CRWD as CRWD has made new high in recent days. Furthermore, PANW has close above the key resistance turned support and closed above the bearish gap on 21 May 2025.
Momentum wise, the stock is on the rise, with the exception of the 23-period ROC which saw slight decline BUT remain elevated above the zero line.
Volume remain healthy and as such, we maintain buy for PANW over the longer-term period with near-term target at 218.00. Support to watch is at 172.00 in a major correction.
PANW Weekly Chart Analysis - Bullish Reversal or Just a Bounce
PANW has staged a strong comeback from a major support zone, reclaiming its bullish channel and now knocking on the door of previous highs. With key indicators flashing early bullish signals, the stock is setting up for a potential breakout — but the overhead resistance remains a critical hurdle.
Technical Breakdown
Trend Structure
Rebounded from long-term demand zone (~$136–$145)
Back inside the ascending price channel
Testing major resistance at $208.25 (previous high)
Fibonacci Levels
0.786 retracement (support): $168.27 — respected perfectly
0.618 support zone: $136.77 — long-term base
Fib extension resistance: $226.87 — aligns with channel top
Indicators
PMO: Bullish crossover from bottom range; early upside signal
RSI: At 55.93, trending upward; plenty of room before overbought
Bullish Scenario
If PANW closes above $208.25 with volume:
Opens clean breakout potential to $226.87 (Fib extension & channel top)
Momentum indicators support trend continuation
Pullbacks toward $182–$185 likely to get bought aggressively
Trigger: Weekly close > $208.25
Target: $226.87
Support levels for re-entry: $185, $175, and $168
Bearish Scenario
If PANW gets rejected at $208.25:
Could form a double top and trigger a reversal
Breakdown below $175 would invalidate near-term bullish setup
Watch for retest of $168.27 (Fib + demand zone) — losing that risks flush toward $137
Trigger: Rejection at $208 + close below $175
Downside risk levels: $168 → $145 → $137
Final Thoughts
The weekly structure leans bullish — but the next $10 range is a battlefield. If buyers clear $208, there’s room to run. Until then, manage risk and watch for decisive confirmation before committing full capital.
$PANW – Inverse Head & Shoulders + Earnings CatalystThis is a textbook pattern combined with a high-impact earnings event:
- Pattern: Inverse Head & Shoulders
- Neckline Breakout Zone: ~$195.50
- Stop Loss: $187.97
- TP1: $207
- TP2: $220
- TP3: $225
Catalyst:
Earnings on May 20th – AI product suite and strong cybersecurity demand could trigger breakout momentum.
Volume is still below average, which is typical pre-earnings. A breakout with volume confirmation could ignite a high-conviction move.
Not financial advice. Just sharing my technical perspective. Let the market decide.
What Palo Alto Networks’ Chart Says Heading Into EarningsCybersecurity giant Palo Alto Networks NASDAQ:PANW plans to release earnings next Tuesday (May 20) at a time when the stock has gained more than 30% since just April 7. Let’s check out the stock’s fundamental and technical picture heading into the results.
Palo Alto Networks’ Fundamental Analysis
PANW has benefited in recent weeks from Wall Street’s view that cybersecurity is one area that could avoid serious impacts from the still-unresolved global trade wars.
Many also think the sector could benefit from potentially inelastic long-term demand going forward.
In fact, 28 of the 35 sell-side analysts that cover the stock have increased their earnings estimates since the current quarter began.
All in, Wall Street was looking at last check for Palo Alto Networks to report $0.77 of fiscal Q3 adjusted earnings per share on roughly $2.3 billion of revenue.
That would compare unfavorably to the $1.33 in adjusted EPS that Palo Alto Networks reported in the same period last year, but would reflect a 15% increase from Q3 2024’s roughly $2 billion of revenues.
Beyond the headline numbers, one item that investors will closely watch will be what PANW reports for Next Generation Security annually recurring revenue (or “ARR”).
Back in February, the firm projected $5.03 billion to $5.08 billion for this metric and $13.5 billion to $13.6 billion in remaining performance obligation.
Palo Alto Networks’ Technical Analysis
Now let’s look at PANW’s chart going back roughly six months and running through Wednesday:
Readers will first see that the stock recently came out of a so-called “double top” pattern of bearish reversal, as denoted with the two red boxes marked “Top 1” and “Top 2.”
However, that pattern appears to have run its course with a sell-off that culminated in early April.
Since then, Palo Alto Networks has rallied into what looks to me like a so-called “rising wedge” pattern, marked with a green box above. Unfortunately, for PANW investors, that’s also traditionally a pattern of bearish reversal.
Does that mean PANW’s price should fall from here? Going into earnings, that's a tricky question.
The shares are trading above their 200-day Simple Moving Average (the red line above), their 50-day SMA (the blue line) and their 21-day Exponential Moving Average (the green line).
That traditionally would keep swing traders and portfolio managers invested in the stock going into next week’s earnings report. But what comes out of those earnings and whatever guidance the company provides could be another story.
Meanwhile, PANW’s Relative Strength Index (the gray line at the chart’s top) is better than neutral, but seems to be declining.
That said, the stock’s daily Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (or “MACD,” denoted by the black and gold line and blue bars at the chart’s bottom) looks like it’s in good shape.
The histogram of Palo Alto Networks’ 9-day EMA is in positive territory, while the 12-day EMA is riding above the 26-day EMA. Both of those lines are also in positive territory. Many would view all of that as a bullish set-up.
Add it all up and whatever guidance the company issues next week will very likely be what either pushes capital into PANW or pulls it out.
The stock’s upside pivot in the chart above is its $208 February high, while PANW’s downside pivot is its 200-day SMA at $181.20. When a stock’s 200- and 50-day SMAs run close together, the 200-day SMA historically takes precedence.
(Moomoo Technologies Inc. Markets Commentator Stephen “Sarge” Guilfoyle had no position in PANW at the time of writing this column.)
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5/13/25 - $panw - Playing next wk EPS sub $2005/13/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:PANW
Playing next wk EPS sub $200
- not the cheapest
- but the leader
- and also not pltr-style expensive
- rule of 40 applies here
- like the CEO, a lot
- chart excellent
- call spreads to play the move above $200 next week, without necking out too much (because i'm using the dip buys and calls in the last few weeks - which were the *chuckles* """easy money""" buys) to cash up a bit
- but i like this sector
- i like the mcap/ size
- cyber still an underowned sector w good tailwinds
- not tariff/ IRL exposed
V
Palo Alto Networks: Countermovement or Breakout?Palo Alto has faced increasing upward pressure and has been noticeably pushed higher. Thus, the stock is ogling our alternative scenario, which envisions a direct breakout above the resistance level at $207.24. In this 30% likely scenario, we would attribute the last low to the beige wave alt.IV and prepare for a new high of the blue wave alt.(I). Primarily, however, we classify the recent gains as a countermovement and locate the stock already in the bearish blue wave (II), which should settle its low within the blue Target Zone between $104.74 and $55.73; prior to that, the price must fall below the support at $130.04. After the wave (II) low, a new (wave (III)) uptrend should begin and eventually lead to new all-time highs above $207.24.
3/31/25 - $panw - Adding once again...3/31/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:PANW
Adding once again...
- trading position
- but >3% fcf yields on industry winner
- u see that google txn on Wiz for $32 bn? here's 109 bn and dominant
- mid teens growth unaffected by tariffs
- if anything more cross border cyber warfare is secular "issue" that benefits these guys
- since last writing, they put up a great quarter
- but the mkt just correlation 1 here
- so trading this long. would love to size it up, but of course that would probably require closer to $150 to add it to the MT/ LT book
- nonetheless, it's a buy here.
V
Anticipated Growth Post-CorrectionKey arguments in support of the idea.
We view the current correction as an advantageous entry point for investors.
The negative effects of U.S. tariffs imposed on other countries are expected to be minimal for Palo Alto Networks.
Investment Thesis
Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW) is a U.S. company dedicated to cybersecurity. It develops cutting-edge solutions designed to protect enterprise networks, cloud environments, and endpoints from cyber threats. The company’s flagship offerings include next-generation firewalls (NGFW), SASE security platforms (Prisma Access), and cloud infrastructure protection solutions (Prisma Cloud). PANW leverages artificial intelligence and machine learning extensively to detect and thwart cyber attacks. The company serves a diverse clientele that spans large enterprises, government agencies, and cloud service providers worldwide. It is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.
We view the current correction as an advantageous entry point. Despite the robust first-quarter FY 2025 financial results that exceeded both internal forecasts and market expectations, Palo Alto Networks’ stock is experiencing nearly a 5% decline in the premarket. The main disappointment for investors was the weakerthan-expected guidance for the third quarter of FY 2025 adjusted diluted EPS. However, the company has raised its financial performance forecast for FY 2025, amid stronger revenue growth. The fundamentals of the business remain strong. Palo Alto Networks is aggressively expanding its platform solutions with AI integration, enhancing its competitive edge in the industry. In the second quarter, the company secured approximately 75 new platformization deals, a substantial increase from 45 in the same period last year. Overall, the number of platforms adopted by its top 5,000 customers exceeded 1,150, compared to 850 a year earlier. Additionally, the number of customers utilizing two platforms increased by more than 50% y/y in the second quarter, and the number of customers using three platforms tripled compared to the previous year. The adoption of a platform approach within Cortex also more than tripled y/y, signaling significant growth in XSIAM’s popularity. This trend reinforces the view that the future of cybersecurity lies in AI-driven platforms that can dramatically accelerate threat response. We view the current market correction as an opportune entry point.
The negative effects of U.S. tariffs imposed on other countries are expected to be minimal for Palo Alto Networks. The company upgrades its contract manufacturing facility in Texas to a primary manufacturing and order fulfillment center. This enables the company to scale and innovate its devices while benefiting from the foreign trade zone status. This move will help mitigate tariff costs on international shipments. Furthermore, all firewalls are assembled and manufactured in the U.S., rendering the impact of tariffs against China negligible on the company’s future earnings.
The target price for the shares is $220, the rating is Sell. We recommend setting a stop loss at $167.
PANW Palo Alto Networks Options Ahead of EarningsSnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of PANW Palo Alto Networks prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 195usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-2-21,
for a premium of approximately $9.90.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Can Quantum Security Save Our Digital Future?In the relentless evolution of cybersecurity, Palo Alto Networks is at the forefront, challenging the conventional with the introduction of the Quantum Random Number Generator (QRNG) Open API framework. This innovative approach not only aims to combat the looming threats posed by quantum computing but also redefines how we think about security in a digital world increasingly intertwined with AI and machine learning. By fostering collaboration across different QRNG technology providers, Palo Alto Networks is not just enhancing security measures but is also setting a new standard for industry-wide interoperability.
The company's commitment extends beyond technological innovation into practical applications, as evidenced by its strategic partnership with IBM and the UK Home Office to secure the Emergency Services Network. This initiative showcases Palo Alto Networks' capability to integrate advanced security solutions into critical infrastructure, ensuring resilience against cyber threats in real-world scenarios. Moreover, their achievement of the FedRAMP High Authorization for their cybersecurity platforms marks a significant milestone, affirming their role in safeguarding even the most sensitive government data.
But the implications of Palo Alto Networks' advancements go deeper, challenging us to rethink our approach to digital security. Their platformization strategy, which unifies disparate security tools into cohesive platforms, not only streamlines security operations but also leverages AI to provide smarter, more proactive defense mechanisms. This strategic pivot towards a more integrated and intelligent security ecosystem is not just about managing current threats but about preparing for an unpredictable future where digital threats could evolve beyond our current comprehension.
In essence, Palo Alto Networks is not merely responding to the cybersecurity challenges of today; they are reimagining them for tomorrow. By pushing the boundaries of what's possible with quantum security and platform integration, they invite us to question: Are we ready for a world where security is as dynamic and forward-thinking as the threats it aims to counter? This thought-provoking journey into the future of cybersecurity compels us to stay informed, engaged, and critically aware of how we protect our digital lives.
Major Price Movement Incoming for PANW!Signalist has detected a precise pattern in NASDAQ:PANW trading activity, signaling that a substantial price movement is imminent. This isn’t a random fluctuation—it’s a carefully analyzed precursor to a significant market event.
📅 What to Expect:
⌛ Timeline: Anticipate a major move within the next 1 to 4 upcoming 3-hour candles.
📈 Monitor the Charts: Keep an eye on PANW’s price action over the next few candles.
Prepare Your Strategy: Whether you’re bullish or bearish, have your trading plan ready to capitalize on the move.
PANW bumping on the 200 day SMAPalo Alto Networks (PANW) the heavy weight in the Cybersecurity ETF HACK has had a very bad last few weeks. The recent correction brought the stock to the 200 Day SMA. In the past every time this happened there has been a rebound form the 200 Day SMA. Will this time will it be different ?
PANW Long at 172.83 (quick flip)PANW is in the midst of a long overdue breather in a year long uptrend and after its rocket run from August through early December when it gained over 35%. Its correction may not be over yet, though I don't think it will drop much below 165 near term unless the whole market sells off. I'm just in for a quick buck so it all doesn't matter much to me anyway. 4 down days in 5 is also a selling point for me here. I went long at the close today at 172.83
Per my usual strategy, I'll add to my position at the close on any day my algo still rates it as a “buy” and I will use FPC (first profitable close) to exit any lot on the day it closes at any profit.
As always - this is intended as "edutainment" and my perspective on what I am or would be doing, not a recommendation for you to buy or sell. Act accordingly and invest at your own risk. DYOR and only make investments that make good financial sense for you in your current situation.
Palo Alto Networks: Top Established!PANW reached a new peak at $207.24 on December 16. Although the price briefly moved above the significant $200 threshold, it failed to gain traction at higher levels. Thus, we now consider the top of the beige wave B as established and position the stock in the third and final stage of the larger wave (II) correction. From the wave B peak, the stock has already seen a pullback of approximately 20%. We anticipate that this downward movement will continue and ultimately reach our blue Target Zone between $104.74 and $55.73, where the ongoing downtrend should find its bottom. In our alternative scenario, we assign a 30% probability to an immediate breach of the resistance at $207.24. In this case, we would have to reckon with a new high of the blue wave alt.(I).
1/8/25 - $panw - Good LT r/r <$170... going small1/8/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:PANW
Good LT r/r <$170... going small
- NASDAQ:PANW is the NASDAQ:NVDA of cyber
- i also like NYSE:S , NASDAQ:ZS , NASDAQ:OKTA , NYSE:CACI , $cyber (today) and at a better px NASDAQ:CRWD (and at a much better px NYSE:NET )
back to panw
- move today in mkts feels more risk off/ pan adjustment based on rates higher, trump soon to assume office, mkt off to decent start into beginning of year
- many names are on their backs, i've written about NASDAQ:OLPX as an example where i've re-started position today
- but ideally you want to own companies crushing the marketplace (bottoms up growth) and fairly valued with reason to believe they will continue to beat. look no further than $panw.
- not cheap at >10x sales, but you get an established player, killer-mindset CEO and nearly 3.5-4% fcf yield (that btw grows double digit). in the rising rates world, will market demand 4-5%? idk. but at this px, i'm happy to leg in. i'd like to own it closer to $150 but my sizing allows me to be indifferent and believe i'm making a solid bet on today's wick-off.
V