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PARA trade ideas

PARA : Going longCons The streaming industry is currently facing significant challenges, and Paramount has heavily focused its efforts in this area. This concentration has negatively impacted their financial performance over the past few years, eroding investor confidence in the stock. Recently, Paramount made the decision to reduce dividends, which may result in a sell-off, as dividend investors may no longer find the stock appealing. A writers' strike that has persisted for several months has also adversely affected the entertainment business. Intense competition from other streaming services poses a threat to Paramount's business. Pros Notably, Berkshire Hathaway maintains holdings in Paramount's stock, despite Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger expressing concerns about the company's business model. This suggests that Berkshire Hathaway may have a strategic plan for the future. Paramount has the potential to recover if it can produce major hits like "Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One", in the coming years. The nearing resolution of the writers' strike is positive news for the streaming industry. Conclusion From a technical perspective, the stock appears to be at attractive buying levels. Therefore, given its current valuation, it appears to be a reasonable decision to take a position in the stock. It's worth noting that I also hold positions in other industry giants like Disney, and I believe that these companies will find ways to recover from their current challenges in the coming years. As of now, I have allocated approximately 1.71% of my capital to this stock. I may consider increasing this allocation to 2.5% if the price experiences a significant decline, depending on the price action.
NASDAQ:PARALong
by Sniper-Traders
$PARA A Deep Value Play?At the moment, Paramount Global (NASDAQ: PARA) is down more than 27% YTD as a result of the writers’ and actors’ strike as well as its long-term debt situation. Many investors are asserting that the stock is nothing short of a value trap given these indications. However, the writers’ strike appears to be coming to an end after writers and studios reached a preliminary labor agreement. As a result, PARA stock may witness a strong run in the coming days along with other movie theater and streaming stocks. Aside from that, the company is currently de-leveraging its balance sheet by selling some of its non-core assets and is headed towards seasonal catalysts which include the Superbowl and the 2024 presidential election. Taking this information into account the company could end up counteracting its debt substantially, which is why the current dip could be an opportunity to enter a long position in PARA stock. PARA Fundamentals The Bear in the Room The bear thesis for PARA is centered around its long-term debt which consists of $15 billion. While $15 billion may at first seem like an imposing figure, it is worth noting that its long-term debt is spread out through 2062 with its bulk due for payment in 2043. As is, the company only has to pay $3 billion in the next 5 years and $7 billion in the next 10 years. Meanwhile, it currently has $1.7 billion in liquidity which is more than enough to cover 3 years’ worth of debt. Another reason why the company’s long-term debt is inconsequential is the fact that it is currently de-leveraging its balance sheet. Recently, PARA sold Simon & Schuster to KKR for $1.62 billion and is planning on using the net proceeds from the sale – $1.33 billion – towards paying off its debt. If push comes to shove, then the company could mirror The Walt Disney Company (DIS) by selling off its non-core assets, of which it has plenty. Possible iconic brands that could be utilized to provide substantial capital include Nickelodeon, MTV, Watch Magazine!, BET Media Group, and many others. Writers’ Strike Coming to an End After months of starts and stops, the Writers Guild of America (WGA) and the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers (AMPTP) reached a tentative deal to end the ongoing writers’ strike. Currently, the WGA and AMPTP are drafting the final contract language, and once the contract is complete, the WGA’s negotiating committee will need to approve it, followed by the BoD for the union’s eastern and western branches. The votes are scheduled to take place on Tuesday, September 25th, and if the contract is approved, the WGA will make the contract language public. The importance of this move is that it could help end the ongoing actors’ strike. The actors struck for many of the same reasons as the writers – asking for better pay and benefits, higher residual payments, transparency from streaming projects, as well as protections against being replaced by AI. That said, the deal with the WGA will act as a precedent for any deal with the Screen Actors Guild-American Federation of Television and Radio Artists (SAG-AFTRA). While studios have not yet requested a meeting with SAG-AFTRA negotiators, this could be due to them focusing on their negotiations with the WGA. Now that the writers’ strike is a thing of the past, studios can focus their attention on the actors’ strike and begin negotiations with SAG-AFTRA. If a deal with SAG-AFTRA is also successfully reached, Hollywood studios like PARA will be free to contract writers and actors for new projects as all such negotiations have been on pause during both strikes. This would be great news for the company as it could start working on new projects that may attract new users to its platform Paramount +. While the end of the writers’ strike should boost PARA stock as well as other streaming and movie theater stocks, the company is set to benefit greatly from 2 major upcoming catalysts that always reflected well on its financial performance. Seasonal Trends Elections and the Super Bowl are classic staples of America. They are also extremely promising seasonal catalysts for many companies including PARA. According to the company’s financials, there is an extremely strong correlation between its ad revenue and these two events which is only natural since CBS airs Super Bowl ads as well as campaign ads. That said, this time around the company may significantly benefit from the Super Bowl and the 2024 elections due to Paramount + and increased election spending. Super Bowl Impact The Super Bowl is a significant driver of ad revenue for PARA. In 2021, 17% of the company’s advertising revenue came from the Super Bowl and the NCAA tournament. That said, in years in which CBS did not air the Super Bowl, the network took a hit in ad revenue as in 2017 its ad revenue decreased by 9% for that very reason and 2% in 2022. This incoming Super Bowl is extremely beneficial for PARA since it will be aired on Paramount + for the first time. This means that the company will make ad revenue from CBS and Paramount + as well as likely witness an increase in its subscriptions. This move could be viewed as a marketing strategy to draw in new clients to the streaming service as the inclusion of the Super Bowl could also potentially serve as a seasonal stimulus for subscriptions. This is similar to Fubo (NASDAQ: FUBO) which experienced surges in its subscription revenue at the start of the NFL season as shown in the chart below. It is however important to note that Paramount + is not Fubo. Fubo specializes in sports entertainment and its cheapest plan costs $75 a month. On the other hand, Paramount + has a diverse array of programs and its cheapest plan is worth $6 a month. Fubo is optimal for sports enthusiasts, while Paramount + would likely be favored by casual sports viewers with diverse interests. As is, 46% of Americans consider themselves casual sports fans while only 29% consider themselves avid fans. Additionally, Fubo subscribers are likely to unsubscribe at the end of the NFL season given the streaming service’s price and a lack of sporting events of interest which can be seen in the chart above when its users decline in Q1 and Q2 compared to Q3 and Q4. On the other hand, Paramount + has a diverse portfolio that includes movies, reality TV, documentaries, and TV series which could attract newcomers from the Super Bowl. In short, unlike Fubo, Paramount + could retain a lot of its Super Bowl subscribers due to the diversity of its offerings. Presidential Election Season Every presidential election season since 2012 has been a record-breaker. In 2012, $2 billion worth of campaign ads were aired during the presidential election season which was at the time an extremely impressive record. During every presidential election season since then, a new record was established. In 2016 ad spending drastically increased to $6.5 billion and in 2020 that figure was $8.5 billion. On that note, according to a prominent media analyst specializing in ad analysis – AdAge – ad spending in the 2024 presidential election season is projected to reach $11 billion. With this in mind, PARA has benefited significantly from elections, as in 2016, its revenues increased 12% in response to the increased spending on campaign ads. This phenomenon occurred multiple times including in 2018 when congressional elections caused the company’s advertising revenue to grow by 8%. Given the correlation between revenue growth and increased presidential campaigns’ ad spending, this upcoming presidential election season could provide the company with the boost it needs to rebound from current levels. Valuation Currently, PARA has a book value of $22.16 billion and a market cap of only $9 billion which means that the stock could be undervalued at the moment with a 146.2% upside from current levels. Additionally, its P/S ratio is 1.1 which is much lower than other companies with a similar business model like Disney and Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. (WBD) which are trading at 6.6 and 2.7 sales multiples respectively. For that reason, the stock could be a bargain at the moment for value investors given that it is trading near 52-week lows. Technical Analysis On the hourly chart, PARA stock is trading near its 52-week low in a neutral trend as it is in a sideways channel between $12.56 and $13.86. Looking at the indicators, the stock is below the 200, 50, and 21 MAs which is a bearish sign. However, the RSI is oversold at 26 and the MACD is curling bearishly. As for the fundamentals, the deal to end the writers’ strike is a major catalyst for all entertainment stocks since studios can contract writers to work on new projects which can see these stocks run over the coming days. That said, the company has bigger catalysts in the upcoming Superbowl which will be the first to air on Paramount + in addition to the Presidential elections whose ad spending is expected to reach $11 billion. Given that the stock appears to be undervalued from a fundamental standpoint based on multiple valuation metrics, PARA stock could be a smart buy for value investors at current levels. PARA Forecast At first glance, PARA may seem like a value trap given its market cap/book value discrepancy and its long-term debt, however, that may not be the case. Its long-term debt is divided so that it has more than enough liquidity to pay its debt due for the next 10 years. Furthermore, the company’s financials could soon be rejuvenated due to the 2024 presidential election season and the Superbowl that will be aired on Paramount + for the first time ever. With the stock trading near 52-week lows, PARA stock could be a bargain for value investors.
NASDAQ:PARA
by Penny_Stocks_Today
1
Paramount $PARA : Bullish on Monthly I'm feeling bullish about this Monthly timeframe. Paramount possesses a range of prized media assets, counting CBS, Showtime, and Paramount Pictures among its holdings. These assets are substantial sources of revenue and profits, effectively establishing a solid growth framework for Paramount's future. It's worth noting that Warren Buffett has been gradually incorporating it into his portfolio, signifying potential value. There's a potential buying opportunity at that level.
NASDAQ:PARALong
by Gabriel-Dao
PARAMOUNT GLOBAL Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 071123 Trading Idea 1) Find a FIBO slingshot 2) Check FIBO 61.80% level 3) Entry Point > 17/61.80% Chart time frame : B A) 15 min(1W-3M) B) 1 hr(3M-6M) C) 4 hr(6M-1year) D) 1 day(1-3years) Stock progress : B A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance B) 61.80% resistance C) Hit the bottom D) Hit the top Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern. When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point. As a great help, tradingview provide these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved. If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks. If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
NASDAQ:PARA
by fibonacci6180
big brother timeI don't like this company or the ideology they push (woke society) ,.. that being said, I do watch some big bro, and that show slaps. The dividend cut was a heart break to many, but damn is this one oversold. Long op for a decade long hold, taking a Buffet approach to this one. Did you know they have a partnership with Walmart+ to offer Free Paramount with the + service? I did, because I use it and boy do they have lots of ads.. ad revenue to be exact. No specific targets. Just a hold and DRIP position. Hopefully they'll pump up those dividends and I get bucco yield to cost ratio.
NASDAQ:PARAALong
by rhall6451
Viacom $VIAC Long Opportunity & DD DD: The Selling on Viacom last week between 3/22-3/26 was blown out of proportion, this was clearly a Hedge Fund fueled sell off to scare the long term holders into selling, but the fundamentals for ViacomCBS seem very strong in the future, there are deals with big companies like Hulu & Netflix to carry there content, and they also have there newest in-house offerings with Paramount Plus & Pluto TV as ways to smoothly transisation from Live TV over to streaming & house all there Viacom & CBS Content under one roof in Paid & Free Ad-Free & Ad-Supported offerings, and there is also there in-house Premium offerings with EPIX where all the hit Paramount Movies are all under one roof, with all of this combined they can create future growth & re-bulid strength within the company. PT #1: $63 @ .382 Fib PT #2: $70 @ .500 Fib PT #3: $78 @ .618 Fib
NASDAQ:PARALong
by CryptoGuy234
3
Sell $Para or buy the double bottomSection 1: Paramount's Current State Before we dive into the takeover aspect, let's look at Paramount's current state. The company has been struggling in recent years. Its revenue has been declining, and it has been struggling to keep up with its competitors. It has also been facing some internal challenges, such as management turnover and creative differences. Furthermore, the COVID-19 pandemic has hit the entertainment industry hard, and Paramount has not been immune to its effects. The company had to delay the release of many of its movies, and it had to shift its focus to streaming services. Despite these challenges, Paramount still has some advantages. It has a rich history and a vast library of content that can be leveraged for future productions. It also has some successful franchises, such as Mission Impossible and Transformers, that can generate revenue for years to come. Additionally, it has some valuable partnerships, such as its deal with Amazon to stream its content on Prime Video. Overall, Paramount's current state is a mixed bag. It has some strengths, but it also has some weaknesses. Whether it is a good takeover target depends on how an acquirer views these factors. Section 2: Arguments for Paramount as a Takeover Target Some argue that Paramount is a good takeover target because of its potential. As mentioned earlier, the company has a vast library of content that can be leveraged for future productions. An acquirer can use this content to create new movies and TV shows, or it can license the content to other companies for a fee. Additionally, Paramount has some successful franchises that can be extended or rebooted. For example, a new Mission Impossible movie is already in the works, and it is expected to generate significant revenue. Another argument for Paramount as a takeover target is its partnerships. As mentioned earlier, Paramount has a deal with Amazon to stream its content on Prime Video. It also has a deal with Netflix to produce some original content. An acquirer can use these partnerships to expand the reach of Paramount's content and generate more revenue. Finally, some argue that Paramount is undervalued. Its current market capitalization is around $10 billion, but some analysts believe that it is worth more. An acquirer can buy Paramount at a discount and unlock its potential, generating significant returns for its shareholders. Section 3: Arguments Against Paramount as a Takeover Target On the other hand, some argue that Paramount is not a good takeover target. One of the main arguments is that the entertainment industry is changing, and traditional studios like Paramount are losing their relevance. Streaming services like Netflix, Amazon Prime Video, and Disney+ are becoming the dominant players, and they are producing their content. Therefore, an acquirer may not see the value in buying a traditional studio like Paramount. Another argument against Paramount as a takeover target is its debt. The company has a significant amount of debt, which may deter potential acquirers. Additionally, its revenue has been declining, which may make it challenging to service its debt in the long run. Finally, some argue that Paramount's internal challenges may make it unattractive to potential acquirers. The company has been facing some management turnover and creative differences, which may make it challenging to integrate into a larger organization. Additionally, its focus on traditional theatrical releases may clash with an acquirer's focus on streaming services. Conclusion In conclusion, whether Paramount is a good takeover target depends on how an acquirer views its potential, its partnerships, and its challenges. While the company has some advantages, such as its vast library of content and successful franchises, it also has some weaknesses, such as its declining revenue and internal challenges. However, if an acquirer can leverage Paramount's strengths and address its weaknesses, it can unlock its potential and generate significant returns for its shareholders.
NASDAQ:PARA
by AlgoTradeAlert
5
Hello Darkness My Old FriendI've come to talk with you again. Because a vision softly creeping Left its seeds while I was sleeping and the vision that was planted in my brain still remains ------- Me and Viacom (now paramount) have history. Apr 8th 2021 - It was the first stock I became invested in the markets 2 years ago (and lost 5 digits on) Nov 12 2021 - I left this golden nugget of a game analogy for what was to come in markets. Dec 11 2021 - The lessons I learned about the darkness of investing was eye opening. Jan 8th 2022 - But it was too late. I had the Saturday Night Feature. Jan 31 2022 - I learned to see the Risk as well as the Reward. Jul 5 2022 - I could clearly the market was not the economy. Thanks to those who encouraged me to keep posting ideas and learning econ and markets.
NASDAQ:PARALong
by SPYvsGME
PARA is deeply undervaluedSince Archegos got margin called, Paramount shares have declined over 80% from ATH. PARA is now trading at a P/E below 4 and at roughly half its book value. Paramount has been transitioning to streaming, and Paramount + has been rapidly gaining subscribers and revenue, but the main causes for concern have been its high debt, and the decline of its cable TV business. On the recent earnings report, PARA continued to show excellent growth in its revenues, but missed earnings due to increased operating expenses and restructuring expenses. With inflation making everything more expensive, increased expenses are unsurprising, and I view that the market has overreacted in selling PARA. I am acquiring shares whenever the stock drops 2 standard deviation below the VWAP, and intend for this to be a long term play.
NASDAQ:PARALong
by spiritualhealer117