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PACCAR Inc.

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PCAR trade ideas

PCAR Earnings Tuesday premarketLooks bullish, but having issues regaining the upward channel. Have not re-entered this trade after dumping Tuesday morning because my ES1! (SPX futures) indicators have not shown a buy signal. I think the strength this week is because of earnings next week, this did get pumptarded last quarter. As I posted before, semi truck sales have been strong this year, so I expect PCAR to beat. The big question is guidance. Bull and bear targets both shown. Will only go long if my ES1! indicators show buy.... I get the feeling that it'll wind up being a pump and dump where it gaps up but goes red Tuesday. The only reason why I want to play it is because this has been my biggest winner the past year and a half. Can't really recommend this as a strong play.
NASDAQ:PCAR
by hungry_hippo
PCAR UpdateLooks like crap today, lol. I did post that I sold all my shares yesterday morning right after I sold. Bull scenario is still the green line but it looks just the same as it did when it failed to break out and tanked on bank news. Overlay is that drop. Even with my bear scenario, it still gets a pre-earnings pump like last quarter, so there's a chance to play that when it hits support at the $64 or 65 range. That pump would then create the right shoulder in a H&S pattern. Time to look for a new stock to play I guess (bummer). I'm still inclined to play any gaps.
NASDAQ:PCAR
by hungry_hippo
18
PCAR UpdateAll of my followers know that I have a gap fill rule for PCAR, it always fills down gaps. Unfortunately, this looks more like the "oh shit" moment that happened at the beginning of the COVID drop. I lost quite a bit of money on that, if you remember it dropped hard the next day, and that gap stayed open for a long time. Fact of the matter is, this bank issue is going to cause problems for truck purchases, so fundamentally it's a problem. the other thing is, PCAR broke an upward wedgie, so it looks like it's headed to the next support. Makes sense since it just lost this one. I don't short PCAR because GM options have better liquidity. No position until it hits support.
NASDAQ:PCAR
by hungry_hippo
6
PCAR UpdateBeen staring at it all week since it left an open gap Friday, finally decided to play it this morning as noted in my ES1! post. PCAR always fills open down gaps, so I figured it's the best play I can find on a whipsaw day. looking at how MFI went up, I'm thinking it might go overbought again on the daily which means this could be a bull flag. So I posted 3 targets: - Gap fill - H&S target (this is the bear scenario) - Bull flag target Will decide tomorrow if I'm gonna hold it past the gap fill. Depends on what the rest of the market is doing. This is still my favorite stock for my retirement account.
NASDAQ:PCAR
by hungry_hippo
5
GM/PCAR DivergenceAn interesting chart, GM and PCAR has historically moved in the same direction, PCAR makes semi trucks. The past year there has been a major divergence between the two stocks. Something has to give though.... either we go into a recession and PCAR goes down or we don't and GM goes up. Expect this gap to close in one direction or the other. I still think a recession is the only way out for the Fed to get rid of their MBS, not entirely convinced they have the balls to do it. This is why I've been rather cautious on trading PCAR. Figured I'd post this chart since I've been bullish on PCAR for the past year. Plus the stock tends to be weak after Q4 earnings, usually until Q2 earnings.
NASDAQ:PCAR
by hungry_hippo