$PLAY - Would you bet on it?NASDAQ:PLAY - Dave & Buster's is trading inside a wedge. Both MACD and RSI are turning up. If the wedge plays out, the stock could see significant upside.
Breaking below $26 would be pretty bad for the stock, so be aware of the risk.
Target and support areas are shown in the chart.
As always, I share my opinions and trades. I'm not suggesting that anyone follow my trades. You do you.
PLAY trade ideas
Stock Of The Day / 12.12.24 / PLAY12.12.2024 / NASDAQ:PLAY
Fundamentals. CEO resignation amid yesterday's negative report. The so-called second-day trade.
Technical analysis.
Weekly chart: Exit down from multi-year accumulation.
Daily chart: The previous day closed near the strong level 29.34 formed by the trend break in September. We expect a continuation of the downward movement.
Premarket: no activity.
Trading session: Pure downward movement after the opening of the session. After the reaction to the level 27.00, the price entered a two-hour accumulation with a gradual tightening to the level. After the breakout, the price clearly holds the level, forming a mini tightening on the opposite side. A failed attempt to return beyond the level in the form of a candle with a tail against the trend strengthens the signal to short.
Trading scenario: breakdown with retest (tightening with retest) of the level 27.00
Entry: 26.89 when the structure of the mini tightening is broken. It is acceptable an aggressive entry into the breakdown without waiting for a retest.
Stop: 27.14 we hide it behind the tail of the failed return attempt.
Exit: After the breakdown we observe a smooth movement without a trend structure. It is optimal to take profit in parts for such movements upon reaching certain target RR profit (1/3, 1/4, etc.) with subsequent tightening of the stop.
Risk Rewards: 1/6
Dave & Buster’s (NASDAQ: $PLAY) Surges 16% After Q2 BeatDave & Buster’s (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:PLAY ) saw a notable spike in its stock price following its Q2 2024 earnings report, which exceeded Wall Street expectations. The arcade and dining chain reported significant growth in earnings, boosted by better restaurant margins and lower operating costs, positioning the company to potentially reverse its prolonged downtrend. Let’s dive into the fundamental and technical factors that are driving this stock and what investors can expect moving forward.
Strong Earnings Beat Despite Sales Challenges
Earnings Performance: Dave & Buster's Q2 earnings surged 65% to $0.99 per share, surpassing FactSet estimates of $0.84 per share. On an adjusted basis, earnings rose 19% to $1.12 per share, also beating forecasts of $0.84. This increase in earnings was largely driven by improved restaurant margins and cost control measures.
Revenue Growth: The company’s total revenue increased by 2.8% to $557.1 million, slightly below analyst expectations of $560.6 million. While food and beverage revenue remained flat, the entertainment segment—crucial for Dave & Buster’s business model—saw over 4% growth, contributing to the overall positive results.
Same-Store Sales Decline: Comparable store sales dropped 6.3%, missing the anticipated 3.6% decline. CEO Chris Morris acknowledged the challenges in the current environment but expressed optimism about ongoing initiatives, including store remodels, new menu offerings, and pricing adjustments aimed at boosting future performance.
Strategic Moves and Share Repurchase Program: The company repurchased $47.4 million worth of shares during the quarter, bringing the total buybacks for the year to $60 million. With $140 million still available under its current repurchase plan, Dave & Buster’s is actively returning capital to shareholders while investing in strategic initiatives to drive future growth.
Outlook: Morris highlighted substantial growth in the special events segment and stronger forward bookings for fiscal 2024, suggesting improved business conditions ahead. The company’s focus on remodels and optimized pricing strategies is expected to enhance revenue, EBITDA, and cash flow in upcoming quarters.
Bullish Reversal Pattern Points to Further Upside
Current Price Action: Following the earnings report, (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:PLAY ) shares surged nearly 15% in premarket trading on Wednesday. This move indicates a potential break of the downtrend that has plagued the stock for much of 2024, where shares had fallen over 44% year-to-date through Tuesday’s close.
Chart Pattern: Bullish Flag Formation: Technically, the stock is showing signs of a bullish flag pattern—a strong reversal signal often characterized by a falling wedge within a broader uptrend. The flagpole represents the sharp rise after earnings, and a break above the flag’s resistance could signal further upside.
Key Indicators: RSI and Moving Averages: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 31, suggesting the stock is in oversold territory, with room for significant growth. The next pivot is the 200-day moving average near $40. Breaking above this level would confirm a bullish reversal, potentially setting the stage for new highs.
Resistance and Price Targets: If the momentum holds, the immediate resistance lies at the 50-day moving average, which aligns with the upper boundary of the flag pattern. A sustained breakout could propel the stock towards the next resistance levels around $45 and $50.
Conclusion: A Promising Path Forward Amid Challenges
Dave & Buster’s Q2 results reflect resilience amid challenging market conditions, bolstered by strategic initiatives and improved operational efficiencies. While comparable store sales remain a concern, the company’s focus on store remodels, new menu offerings, and targeted pricing strategies are likely to yield positive results in the medium term.
Technically, the bullish flag pattern combined with favorable RSI readings supports a potential upward move, especially if the stock can maintain momentum above key moving averages. For investors, NASDAQ:PLAY presents an intriguing opportunity, balancing solid earnings performance with promising technical indicators.
However, the road ahead isn’t without risks. The company must continue navigating the complex economic environment and execute its strategic initiatives effectively to sustain its newfound momentum. As Dave & Buster’s works to revitalize its brand and operations, it remains a stock worth watching closely.
PLAY | InformativeNASDAQ:PLAY
Analysis of Dave & Buster's Entertainment, Inc. (PLAY)
Current Status Price: $39.58
Moving Averages: Short-term moving averages indicate bearish momentum, with the price currently below them.
Bullish Scenario
Bullish Trigger Line: $39.78
Confirmation: A break and close above $39.78 could signal a potential bullish reversal.
Target Prices for Bullish Scenario:
Target Price 1: $40.80
Target Price 2: $44.63
Ultimate Bullish Target: $50.35
Bearish Scenario
Bearish Line: $38.79
Confirmation: A break and close below $38.79 would reinforce bearish sentiment.
Target Prices for Bearish Scenario:
Target Price 1: $37.69
Target Price 2: $35.44
Additional Observations
Volume: There was a significant volume spike recently, suggesting strong market interest and potential for volatility.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Currently below 50, indicating bearish momentum but showing signs of potential reversal.
Dave & Buster's Thriving Surged By 11.5% On Profit Metric BeatDave & Buster's Entertainment Inc. (NYSE: NASDAQ:PLAY ) has been making waves in the stock market recently, with its shares surging on the back of impressive financial performance and strategic moves to enhance shareholder value. Despite facing challenges in the fourth quarter, the game-themed restaurant chain has showcased resilience, leaving investors bullish on its prospects. Let's delve deeper into what's been driving this surge and what lies ahead for Dave & Buster's.
The Resilience in Numbers:
Dave & Buster's ( NASDAQ:PLAY ) recent earnings report revealed a robust performance, exceeding analyst expectations in key areas. Notably, the company reported fourth-quarter earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) of $151.8 million, marking a significant 9.7% increase from the previous year. This stellar EBITDA figure showcases the effectiveness of the company's turnaround plan, spearheaded by CEO Chris Morris.
Strategic Expansion and Initiatives:
Dave & Buster's ( NASDAQ:PLAY ) isn't resting on its laurels. The company is aggressively expanding its footprint, with plans to open more domestic stores and venture into international markets. The addition of six new domestic stores in the last fiscal year and the announcement to add 15 more, along with up to four international units, underscore the company's commitment to growth. Moreover, strategic initiatives such as location overhauls, menu adjustments, and price revisions have proven effective in driving sales and enhancing customer experience.
Shareholder Value Enhancement:
In a move to further bolster shareholder value, Dave & Buster's announced an increase in its stock buyback program by $100 million, bringing the total value of shares authorized for repurchase to $200 million. This signals management's confidence in the company's future prospects and its commitment to returning value to shareholders.
Navigating Challenges and Future Outlook:
Despite its impressive performance, Dave & Buster's faced challenges in the fourth quarter, with earnings per share (EPS) and revenue missing forecasts. However, executives attributed this to adverse weather conditions impacting restaurant traffic in January. With a positive outlook and new initiatives on the horizon, including measures to counteract near-term macroeconomic pressures, analysts remain optimistic about Dave & Buster's future growth trajectory.
Investor Sentiment and Market Performance:
Investors have responded positively to Dave & Buster's recent performance, with shares trading near their all-time high and experiencing a remarkable surge of over 25% year-to-date. Analysts, including Truist Securities, have raised their price targets on the stock, reflecting confidence in the company's ability to deliver sustained growth and value creation.
Technical Outlook
Dave & Buster ( NASDAQ:PLAY ) stock is Trading above the 200-day Moving Average (MA) with a bullish Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 67.38 indicating further room for growth from the ticker.
PLAY Dave & Buster's Entertainment Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of PLAY Dave & Buster's Entertainment prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 55usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2024-4-19,
for a premium of approximately $1.52.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
PLAY Dave & Buster's Entertainment Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of PLAY Dave & Buster's Entertainment prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 43usd strike price at the money Puts with
an expiration date of 2023-12-15,
for a premium of approximately $2.28.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
PLAY Dave & Buster's Entertainment Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of PLAY Dave & Buster's Entertainment prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 40usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-9-15,
for a premium of approximately $1.62.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
PLAY | Excellent Long Term Play | LONGDave & Buster's Entertainment, Inc. owns and operates entertainment and dining venues for adults and families in North America. Its venues offer a menu of entrees and appetizers, as well as a selection of non-alcoholic and alcoholic beverages; and an assortment of entertainment attractions centered on playing games and watching live sports, and other televised events. The company operates its venues under the Dave & Buster's name. As of January 30, 2022, it owned and operated 144 stores located in 40 states, Puerto Rico, and one Canadian Province. The company was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Coppell, Texas.
PLAY -ing with Fire Up here - Dave & Busters Eatertainment ChainDave & Buster's is an American restaurant and entertainment business headquartered in Dallas.
Each Dave & Buster's has a full-service restaurant and a video arcade.
As of January 2022, the company has 144 locations in the United States and two in Canada.
A quick scan of Google Maps D&B locations shows that very few are rated above 4 stars
This is a large national chain with a good footprint, however the upside is limited if common Americans begin to slow down discretionary spending.
Earnings watch 6/7+6/6
FUTU
GTLB
COUP
6/7
ASO
PLAY
CBRL
SOL
SJM
GIII
HOLX
Do your own due diligence, your risk is 100% your responsibility. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only. You win some or you learn some. Consider being charitable with some of your profit to help humankind. Good luck and happy trading friends...
*3x lucky 7s of trading*
7pt Trading compass:
Price action, entry/exit
Volume average/direction
Trend, patterns, momentum
Newsworthy current events
Revenue
Earnings
Balance sheet
7 Common mistakes:
+5% portfolio trades, capital risk management
Beware of analyst's motives
Emotions & Opinions
FOMO : bad timing, the market is ruthless, be shrewd
Lack of planning & discipline
Forgetting restraint
Obdurate repetitive errors, no adaptation
7 Important tools:
Trading View app!, Brokerage UI
Accurate indicators & settings
Wide screen monitor/s
Trading log (pencil & graph paper)
Big, organized desk
Reading books, playing chess
Sorted watch-list
Checkout my indicators:
Fibonacci VIP - volume
Fibonacci MA7 - price
pi RSI - trend momentum
TTC - trend channel
AlertiT - notification
tickerTracker - MFI Oscillator
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PLAY | GuidanceJournal Entry
Bias: Positive.
Sentiment: Optimistic.
Emoji (emotion): Smart 👨🏫.
Null Hypothesis: Buy.
Alternative Hypothesis: Sell.
Signals: ...
Position: Short term day trade.
Notes: I'm anticipating the market to buy the earnings surprise 3/28/22 AMC: www.estimize.com
Barron's Company Overview: www.barrons.com .
Other: ...
Tutorial: (Q/A) What exactly is the box labeled tolerance? The box labeled tolerance is a defined range of value & time that qualifies the right to exit the trade after a profit is made; as long as the security is inside the box and above the trade's entry one could say the profit is within tolerance, likewise if the security is outside the box either because of value or time one could say the profit is not within tolerance. It's a way to add parameters to the future outcome (as a means to grade the journal entry) while simultaneously providing leniency in the ability to achieve success with said journal entry.
About the Security: "Dave & Buster's Entertainment, Inc. engages in the ownership and operation of entertainment and dining venues under the name Dave & Buster's. It offers a full menu of entrées and appetizers, a selection of alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages, and an assortment of entertainment attractions centered around playing games and watching live sports and other televised events. The company was founded by David O. Corriveau and James W. Corley in 1982 and is headquartered in Dallas, TX."
Social: I'm happy to hear from my readers/audience and I encourage constructive feedback; although I'm busy I will give my best effort to reply. I strive to build an esteemed reputation & following, as well as earn the title as one of Tradingview's pinescript Wizards and Top Authors.
About the Author: I'm a financial scientist and one of my sources of income is trading, that is to say anything offered to the community is apart of my scientific journal or goodwill to mankind (you're very welcome). With that said I'd like to make two things clear, (1) I'm not a Wall Street retailer I'm not trying to sell you products or services (2) I'm not a Wall Street advertiser I'm not trying to market the purchase of securities to you.
Disclaimer: My journal entry is not a complete prospectus, please consider it accordingly.
Dun & Busters USASun Storm Investment Trading Desk & NexGen Wealth Management Service Present's: SSITD & NexGen Portfolio of the Week Series
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🟢ADDED to $PLAY New Target 49.17 for 38.94 (Risk Level - Med)🟢 $PLAY Target 49.17 for 38.94 (Risk Level - Med)
Or double position at - 24.13
Added here today below my next add level so that’s happy… @ 32.88
New Target set…
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On the far right of the chart is my Average (Grey) Current Target (Green), and Next Level to add (Red) Percentage to target is from my average.
Numbers with an A are places that are a good idea to add if you can.
Numbers with a D are places where you should double your position.
I start every position with .5 - 1% of my account and build from there as needed and as possible.
I am not your financial advisor. Watch my setups first before you jump in… My trade set ups work very well and they are for my personal reference and if you decide to trade them you do so at your own risk. I will gladly answer questions to the best of my knowledge but ultimately the risk is on you. I will update targets as needed.
GL and happy trading.
🟢NEW POSITION $PLAY Target 51.69 for 46.43% $PLAY Target 51.69 for 46.43%
Or double position at 24.13
With optional adds at 34.67, and 29.84
—
On the far right of the chart is my Average (Grey) Current Target (Green), and Next Level to add (Red) Percentage to target is from my average.
I start every position with 1% of my account and build from there as needed and as possible.
I am not your financial advisor. Watch my setups first before you jump in… My trade set ups work very well and they are for my personal reference and if you decide to trade them you do so at your own risk. I will gladly answer questions to the best of my knowledge but ultimately the risk is on you. I will update targets as needed.
GL and happy trading.
I finally added my YouTube Training Video to my profile tagline since I’m not allowed to on here. It’s a quick 15 minute training video on how to set up your chart and how to spot opportunities. So check here first but If you have questions just message me.
If you understand options at all I’m trying to learn so shoot me some pointers…
PLAY btdI am always suspicious when I get a ticker that also seems to have a message. But, historically, they have been accurate enough.
The idea is to expect a low in PLAY tomorrow. The area I'm getting is $44.56 (bell going off cuz I also got the number 56 in my GME reading... idk bout that).
Anyway, PLAY found resistance at the downtrend line yesterday and today, hopefully, it finds support tomorrow and will go back up and bust through. Buy the dip.