this bunny is hopping awayim big on shorting moves that dont have much of an underlying reason to continue and are overextended on higher timeframes. the speed and ferocity PLBY tackled this mornings volatility is staggering, but that should return to the overall bear trend. even if this move lasts all day and continues to retrace weekly or monthly highs ill remain ahort PLBY knowing there is a bear undercurrent waiting to resume.
PLBY trade ideas
Playboy: Long hotties & hedonism as we head in to summerPlayboy stock has been sinking for a while. That said the stock has been coiling in the $2 area for a month. I think if it can break through about $2.20 the stock can pop quick to over 3 dollas. If it falls under $1.50 I'll bug out of the trade. It is a small position
$PLBY Measured move to $1.40 complete NASDAQ:PLBY has finished it's measured move to the $1.40 Key profit-taking level today, 01/09/2024 - Price action temporarily traded to $1.40 before finishing the day candle at $1.38. If speculators placed a limit order at $1.40 to sell, they most-likely would have been filled while the price action temporarily traded the $1.40 level.
*Nothing in this post should be construed as investment advice*
$PLBY - It's cooked enoughOver 6 months, since certain people have talked about PLBY being some kind of amazing play or whatever. I have a rule that if someone's telling people a stock is amazing, that stock won't do well in the short term as MMs and others need the stock to go down and stay down long enough for people's options to expire worthless and for short term stock holding maniacs to get bored.
According to muh data, it seems that the stock has reached point where both points i mentioned above have been reached.
The signal on my data shows something having started on the 18th. According to my strat's "investing" horizon, the buy should have happened last week in the 18th of Dec and will end on the 7th or 18th of January.
Have fun if you wanna try it. I am in for a tiny amount as a real life test of my strat.
PLBY Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 080623 Trading Idea
1) Find a FIBO slingshot
2) Check FIBO 61.80% level
3) Entry Point > 1.8/61.80%
Chart time frame : B
A) 15 min(1W-3M)
B) 1 hr(3M-6M)
C) 4 hr(6M-1year)
D) 1 day(1-3years)
Stock progress : A
A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance
B) 61.80% resistance
C) Hit the bottom
D) Hit the top
Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern.
When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point.
As a great help, tradingview provide these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved.
If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks.
If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
Playboy Stock Options trading - Rolling puts into sharesSummary: picking through the garbage to see if any value left for future. bankruptcy or big move in 5-10 years. Rolling short puts into stock for potential change based on new catalyst of joint venture.
key concepts:
Sizing- Having enough but not too much of an investment idea in a portfolio.
Risk/reward- Assigning probabilities to various up and down scenarios. Choosing exposure based on opportunity.
Expected returns- Factoring most likely outcomes of decisions and positions. Long options vs stock for example.
Survivability- Choosing a trade structure or vehicle that allows ability to endure wild adverse moves.
FATSO- 5 level of analysis acronym.
F- fed not pivoting yet, but hints at easing and market likes that.
A- accounting wise plby is beat up and priced for potential bankruptcy at low price/sales, price/book.
T- Technical trend shows its still in downtrend, some volume accumulation, way below 200 day ma
S- social sentiment, used to be popular meme stock, some young crowd still follows, did nfts so associated, low hype now
0- options view is still very volatile, high IV, stock price is so low that trading the options doesnt make much sense
*stocks below 5$ are penny stocks, so many institutions cant even hold the shares if their mandates wont allow.
warning: penny stocks are risky and will lose you money. this is not advice. you will lose money.
Is $PLBY Playboy doomed or just Oversold at 0.50 book value?Is playboy a bargain or is it headed to liquidity troubles? I dont know but Im curious.
Apparently they own Honey Birdette, a high end lingerie chain with over 50 stores. They do a lot of branding royalty deals. They also have a new app called Centerfold that seems to compete with only fans but with playboys twist. Last earnings calls, Playboy shared that in their soft launch of Centerfold, they already have contributors making 100k a month and more making 10k a month. Halloween is expected to be good this year as we are still in a re-opening process.
On the other hand, they do have a lot of expenses and limited resources. They've spent a lot on the development of Centerfold. Inventory supply issues have been inconvenient last year. Also they have high double digit exposure to china, which can be a bit hurt or help depending on their deals for next year.
I will keep watching it. Either way, it will be an interesting story.
Can history repeat itself?We may be near the end of an accumulation phase: the RSI indicates a bullish divergence, while the stock has been consolidating for some weeks and is about to break out.
I believe that this could be, once again, a good trading opportunity. If the breakout happens with volume, I can see the stock in the high 20s range.
Personally I wouldn't risk more than 1% of my total capital on this trade. The risk/reward ratio is definitely there.
Disclaimer: this is not financial advice, I am an amateur trader, trade at your own risk.
Party with Cardi at the Mansion!Looks like the new Hef got breast! So thats some good news for the ladies right? And Im sure the fellas cant wait for the "centerfold" lol.... Right now we have a triangle forming and we are looking to get a little tighter before the breakout. When its ready Im thinking 47 to 50 should be our target.
Trader Vic says go long $PLBYGreat book by Victor Sperandeo "Trader Vic - Methods of a wall street master" , specifically the section on drawing correct trendlines.
I see a lot of traders (including some times myself) drawing wrong trendlines especially if they are bias to long or short.
Per Trader Vic - For a downtrend within the period of consideration, draw a line from the highest high point to the lowest minor high point PRECEDING the lowest low so that the line does not pass through prices in between the two high points (i.e. blue line).
Simpler said : Draw the line from the highest high to the highest high that precedes the lowest low, so that all price action is below.
Once this trend line is broken , to confirm the uptrend, we want to see higher highs and lower lows AND "Prices go above the minor high point (i.e. the orange line)
TLDR:
$PLBY no longer appears to be in a down trend and has pivoted now to the start of an uptrend.
PLBY to the moon!!!After showing a bullish divergence on the RSI, PLBY has finally broken out with volume!
Expecting a bull run, hopefully it will go to the moon!
I wouldn't risk more than 1% of my capital on this trade. Bought at 26$: I think that 27.5$ may not be an optimal entry point with a good enough risk/reward ratio.
This is not financial advice, I am an amateur trader, trade at your own risk.