6/24/24 - $prgs - 6/24/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:PRGS
Looks enticing, but pass
I'll keep this one short and sweet. Pass:
- Growing >10% a year, *okay* but 100% of it is growth of SG&A, so the more selling they put in, the more they sell. it's not scaling
- 3.7x ev to sales is here nor there. I can pay the same amt for NYSE:BILL and without the leverage in my capital stack growing >20%. even NYSE:BILL is tough to buy today, still
- 13x PE cheap and 5.5% implied FCF yield (let's back out the stock comp) is cheap-ish, but i can buy zoom for HSD PE and nearly 10% implied FCF yield (though not growing double digits, there's always some trade off to consider).
- the stock chart vs. the S&P (type "PRGS/SPY" into trading view) is back to 2001/2002 levels. in the last decade it's been down only vs the S&P comp. so still better than cash (nominal stock price still went up), but clearly there were a lot of better boats and especially in software
- will it get bought/ taken out? who knows. i don't care bc the fundamentals aren't really suggesting i need to be involved here. i'll leave it for the PE vultures to pull this one apart and argue for the value they can create. have at it.
pass
- V
