QQQ trade ideas
$QQQ $NDX Pullback TargetsNEAR TERM BEAR TARGET .318 PULLBACK = 480
💃🏻 Let's go!! Again, bears - DON'T BUY PUTS here!!!! At least not on the front contracts... it's being used as rocket fuel for the rally... look to further out contracts if you want to short!!
QQQ retracement imminentCPI might be the event to trigger a retracement in QQQ. Pisitive or negative it will be used as a reason to reset position. Further upside without a breather seems cleaver to me.
Do not Trap in Gambler's/ Monte Carlo Fallacy!This image shows a historical chart of the QQQ ticker (which tracks the Nasdaq-100 index) over the past 15 years. The chart displays sequences of the market's consecutive up days (green) and down days (red).
Key points from the image:
1. The chart spans from 2009 to 2024.
2. Green and red bars represent up and down days respectively.
3. Numbers in boxes above certain points indicate strings of consecutive up or down days.
4. The longest streak shown is 14 consecutive up days.
5. The title warns: "Be aware to not trapped in Gambler's/Monte Carlo fallacy"
The Monte Carlo fallacy, also known as the gambler's fallacy, is the mistaken belief that if an event has occurred more frequently than normal in the past, it's less likely to happen in the future (or vice versa). In the context of this chart, it warns against assuming that because the market has been up for several consecutive days, it's "due" for a down day, or the opposite.
This fallacy is particularly relevant in financial markets where past performance doesn't necessarily predict future results. The chart illustrates that while streaks of consecutive up or down days do occur, they're unpredictable and don't follow a set pattern.
The warning aims to remind investors and traders not to make decisions based on the expectation that a trend must reverse simply because it has continued for some time. Each market day is independent, and past patterns don't determine future movements.
MAJOR RSI SELL SIGNAL The chart posted is the QQQ we now have a major sell I am now 100 % long puts in qqq 495and 490 march 2025 I have major cycles turning down into oct 10th look for 4900 to 4600 in the sp 500 cash and in the qqq 410 to 431
07/10 QQQ Levels and ATR RangesATR for the QQQ siting at 5.14 - WE have 10am and 1030am reports on Crude and Gas from the FOMC, Powell still testifying about the economy in front of the senate. 2nd quarter earnings are on the way this is going to a be busy month.
Looking for good reports to come out of tomorrow, so they might be buying up the Momentum into these reports tomorrow. But they might also be selling to bring it lower to bring it back up again.
If we get a pullback, I would expect it into the 496.24 area for Yesterdays low range, if we break that, then potential 495.50 for the weeks low.
I will follow the ATR lines and look for Volume and price action along with the EMAs to help gauge a potential direction.
We are now dancing premarket dance around yesterdays high level of 499.81 (52 week at 500.00 EVEN). if we bust through that area after open, following my scalp lines and levels up to 500.48 to 501.82, potentially 502.30. If we get there, I believe the fight for 504 in underway.
God bless and good luck everyone.
QQQ Long Term Dual Cloning Analysis UPDATEHello Folks!
This is an update to a previously published idea. Moving averages trend & candle action still bullish.
Refer to the previously published Idea commentaries on Cloning methodology.
QQQ - Short JUL19 495C @ $6.65 2 ContractsJust adding to my short position using a short options trade strategy. Selling two contracts here, and if we get a better setup will add to my short position overall.
Was originally short 100 shares and had another contract assigned for a current 200 share short position. The other short contract expired worthless so I kept that premium.
This can be taken as a trade or as I am doing a hedge for your portfolio. Will update later want to get the trade out!!
07/09 QQQ Levels and ATR RangesBig Pappa Pump is talking this morning, QQQ ATR is at 5.16$
We got big reports happening on Thursday, but other than that the reports are pretty weak. Looking for a pull back and bounce round 497.39 as low at 496.03 if we pull further I am really looking for the bounce around 495.50 yesterdays low of the day.
If we get upside action we are certainly going past 500, especially if we pop past 499.50 with volume and price action the BIDs gotta pull waaaay past the ASK - possibly 502.70 area before we go back to test 498.59.
SCALP
SR2 500.60
SR1 499.93
SPOP 499.26
LAST PRICE 498.59
SBREAK 497.92
SS1 497.25
SS2 496.58
STANDARD
R2 505.30
R1 502.72
POP 501.17
LAST PRICE 498.59
BREAK 496.03
S1 494.00
S2 492.64
QQQ: Approaches Psychological Resistance! (D&W charts)In the daily chart of the QQQ, the price is steadily climbing within a well-defined uptrend, supported by the 21-day EMA and an ascending trend line. The ETF is approaching a critical psychological resistance level at $500, marked by the red line. This level is significant as it often acts as a barrier due to its round-number nature, where traders tend to set sell orders. A decisive close above this level would signal a continuation of the uptrend, potentially leading to further gains.
The daily chart also shows a recent breakout above the previous resistance at 486.86, which now serves as a support level. This breakout, accompanied by higher lows, reinforces the bullish sentiment. If you are looking for entry points, then you might consider buying on pullbacks to the 21-day EMA or on a breakout above the psychological resistance at $500, confirming bullish momentum.
On the weekly chart, QQQ is displaying strong bullish characteristics with consistent higher highs and higher lows. The 21-week EMA has been a reliable support, indicating the overall trend remains bullish. The recent bullish candle indicates strong buying interest, suggesting that any pullback might be limited and serve as a buying opportunity.
Integrating both the daily and weekly charts, QQQ is showing robust bullish momentum. The key level to watch is the psychological resistance at $500. A successful close above this level would open the door for further gains. Conversely, failure to break above this resistance could lead to a minor pullback to the support levels around 486.86 or the 21-day EMA. For now, we should monitor these levels closely to determine the strength of the uptrend and make informed trading decisions.
For more detailed technical analyses and insights like this, be sure to follow my account. Your support helps me continue providing valuable content to help you make informed trading decisions.
Remember, real trading is reactive, not predictive, so let's stay focused on the key points described above and only trade when there is confirmation.
“To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate.” — Jesse Lauriston Livermore
All the best,
Nathan.
QQQ ATR Levels and LinesGood morning, Happy Monday. QQQ ATR is 5.16$ today. Its Monday, I dont know what to expect and the reports are looking kind of weak on the importance side. We are starting 2nd quarter earnings for the big boys and girls this week and into the rest of this month. Gonna be really silly I think in the way of price action. I am looking for these levels to come into play and looking for price action and volume to help me dictate what they will be doing at that time. Good luck to everyone and hope you hit the lottery today in the market.
SCALP LEVELS
SR2 498.48
R1 497.81
SPOP 497.14
LAST PRICE 496.47
SBREAK 495.80
SS1 495.13
SS2 494.46
Standard ATR LEVELS
R2 503.18
R1 500.60
POP 499.05
LAST PRICE 496.47
BREAK 493.91
S1 491.88
S2 490.52
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 7-8-24Back by popular demand - here is the Plan Your Trade video for July 8, 2024.
Today, I will highlight my expectations and warn you that no one is able to accurately predict future market trends 100% of the time. I will tell everyone that I can't accurately predict anything related to future price trends/moves. I can use my skills and technology to "estimate" what I believe is a likely outcome for future price.
I want to try to make this very clear. I'm not some special person who can see into the future. I am simply using my skills and my SPY Cycle Patterns to try to estimate what I believe could happen in the future.
Based on that information, here you go. I've highlighted 3+ weeks of market trends, showing you where I believe opportunities exist and where to avoid sideways market trends.
I see three very clear opportunities over the next three to four weeks. First, the continuation of the uptrend. Then, the pullback to support. Then, the renewed rally phase near July 23-24.
Let's get some this week and prepare for what comes next.
QQQ New all time highs..yet again!QQQ weekly chart looking excellent. New all time highs yet again, may be due for a consolidation in short term as we are extended. However, the long term bullish trend is firmly in play.
500 plus but then a retraceQQQ is so close to making new highs, and with the current market sentiment, it should produce that fairly quickly before seeing a correction before it picks back up and goes higher. IMO, based on market sentiment and rate cuts after soft numbers, there is still some way to go here.
QQQ: Weak Market & Bearish Forecast
The recent price action on the QQQ pair was keeping me on the fence, however, my bias is slowly but surely changing into the bearish one and I think we will see the price go down.
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AI Bubble grows above resistance for QQQThe gap up and follow through today shows a clear break above the 2010 trading channel that has provide resistance so far. I see a pattern very close to that of July 6, 2020. The is not confirmation yet that price is out of the channel and that resistance has become support, but for the bulls this is a very good start. I would expect the bulls to try and run with it now that price is above the channel. I will also be watching for a pullback to test for support in the near future. If that can hold, the AI bubble may get really pumped. We can never know what will spook the market, but right now it feels like the sky is the limit.
Today
July 6, 2020
Did I say $500? Yeah i said it and I'm doubling down!Right now I'm cash but monday looks to be real interesting. Prepping for gap scenarios and key levels.
QQQ ATR LEVELSATR range for QQQ is sitting at and around 5.12
Looking for these lines to come into play with volume and price action.
Technical indicators would be a bonus. Lots of profit gonna get taken out of the market today, thats my opinion, may seem bearish, but I think its just profit taking.
WHERE IS QQQ HEADED?If we form a new high we could see qqq head to 495 by next week. If we reject off the 491 area we can drop back down to 487-488 level. Then if this happens an we see a bullish reaction at this level I say we push back up towards 491 an break past to 495. A true short term bearish structure to occur we must see a break below 483.
QQQ update 7/4D:
Sentiment: Above Neutral
Trend: up
Flow: N/A
Support: 485 b\o resistance turned support test/ 480 UTL
Resistance: 500 psych/UTL
4hr:
Sentiment: Bearish
Trend: up
Support: 480
Resistance: 500
1hr:
Sentiment: above neutral
Trend: up
Support: 485
Resistance: 492 UTL
Analysis:
Sentiment not much of a factor here considering that we can stay hot longer than expected and other than 4hr others are above neutral. NFP expected to be + for tech in theory (or at least the bar is higher for a negative reaction) and that fresh breakout on daily can have more legs to that 500 area before pullback. Personally I’d like to see a retest of the b/o spot at 485 before taking a long but all depends on reaction.
Happy 4th of July QQQ Thoughts Looking at QQQ attempting to cool off from this Summer Heat.
Was expecting a lot more movement from QQQ yesterday, holidays could have slowed that momentum maybe.
Friday looking for a higher high and higher low, ideal outcome is previous resistance (yellow lines) turn into new support and we bounce to that higher high.
Appreciate the read and drop a comment if you agree or disagree!
QQQ - Trade UpdateCurrently I am short 200 shares of QQQ as the 480 calls expired worthless last Friday. Though the market is attempting to rally here IMO this is a fake out to get rid of shorts.
So if you took the swing trade the stop is at 490.50 which we are just short of. If you took the position trade, we are still a good ways off of 502.
Let the trade play out is generally the best thing to do. I am personally building a short position up in this market to hedge my portfolio so I do not mind adding to my position here. There are various strategies which all depend on your situation.
If you are a swing trader, well you are close to getting stopped out here. If you want to limit the loss IF we hit the stop, in lieu of closing it out you could sell a Call, slightly ITM for Friday and let that pull you out, or simply just let the stop take you out.
I like selling options against long and short positions, it won't make you rich, but you can nickel and dime a few extra bones here and there.
If you are in the position trade, then nothing to do here but let the market play out.
Now since I am hedging against my portfolio, I am looking to sell another Call to add to my short position. Again I am hedging my portfolio and building a short position.
Simply too much uncertainty geo-politically after that debacle of a debate. So I want to be hedged short and simple.
There is also a potential UVXY trade I am looking at for the weekend, and I will post on that if and when I add a trade.
Have a blessed Fourth for my American friends, and the rest of you enjoy the week.
Analyzing the Recent Performance of Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ)The monthly chart of Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) reveals some intriguing patterns and insights into its recent performance. Here’s a breakdown of what the chart illustrates:
Strong Recovery Post-Downturn:
From the high in late 2021 to the low in late 2022, QQQ experienced a significant decline of approximately 37.96%, shedding over 154 points in a span of 11 months (336 days).
However, since hitting that low, QQQ has shown a robust recovery, marked by a consistent upward trajectory that has continued into mid-2024. The price has risen above the 9-month Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 438.02 USD, indicating a strong bullish trend.
Key Support and Resistance Levels:
The 438.02 USD level, marked by the 9-month SMA, now acts as a key support level. As long as the price stays above this line, the bullish sentiment is likely to prevail.
The recent high of 489.40 USD represents a significant resistance level that traders will be watching closely.
RSI Analysis:
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 72.69, which is above the 70 level, indicating that QQQ is in overbought territory. This could suggest a potential pullback or consolidation in the near term.
The RSI has maintained an upward trend, reflecting the strengthening momentum in QQQ’s price movement.
Volume Trends:
The volume over the downturn period was substantial (17.005B), indicating heavy trading activity, possibly driven by panic selling and subsequent accumulation.
Summary
The QQQ has shown impressive resilience, recovering from a steep decline in 2021-2022 to reach new highs in 2024. The current bullish trend is supported by strong price action above the 9-month SMA and positive RSI momentum. However, with the RSI in overbought territory, investors should be cautious of potential short-term corrections. Key levels to watch are the support at 438.02 USD and the resistance at 489.40 USD.
Investment Insights:
Bullish Perspective: As long as QQQ stays above the 9-month SMA, it remains in a strong uptrend, making it a favorable candidate for long positions.
Bearish Perspective: With the RSI indicating overbought conditions, traders should watch for signs of a reversal or consolidation, particularly if the price fails to sustain above the recent highs.
Stay tuned for more updates and analysis on QQQ and other major indices!
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research or consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
