QQQ The Target Is DOWN! SELL!
My dear subscribers,
QQQ looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 526.54 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation.
Target - 515.69
About Used Indicators:
The average true range (ATR) plays an important role in 'Supertrend' as the indicator uses ATR to calculate its value. The ATR indicator signals the degree of price volatility.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
QQQ trade ideas
Macroeconomic History Tells Us Rough Times Are AheadIn 2023, I did a write up on TradingView about how there is a positive correlation between interest rates and equities, meaning that equites tend to decrease when interest rates decrease. However, correlation does not equal causation. The real correlation is between poor economic data and the stock market, where the poor economic data spurs interest rate cuts and causes a fall in equities. The recent surprisingly bad July jobs report jolted the markets, and reasonably so. The Fed decided to hold interest rates steady in July, causing some to think that they may be behind the curve. Not to mention the Sahm Rule flashed positive; an economic observation that has never been wrong in being a precursor to a recession. fred.stlouisfed.org
I am of the party that the Fed is behind the curve
In the past, Jerome Powell has stated that he doesn't expect a "severe" recession, and that there could be a "softish" landing, hinting at the difficulties that the Fed faced in preventing a recession altogether. I believe that the stock market will continue to fall, mixed with large rallies (which will make buying the bottom difficult), and I think this will play out for many months.
So what's my plan?
I sold my LEAPS before the poor jobs market data was released, saving my bacon to be honest. I sold my HOOD profits as well, as I had made a 100% return. I then took both and dumped the funds into QQQ. I do not hold cash in case I am wrong. I would rather be wrong and invested than wrong and sitting on cash. I plan on waiting until the Q's drop another 20% or so before buying LEAPS. Typically, I advise only to put 10% into LEAPS, but this could be a rare opportunity where risk on could pay of in a big way. When I do decide to jump in, I will buy LEAPS with expirations two years out. I want to give them the longest time frame possible because I know I won't be able to time the bottom perfectly.
The real risk is waiting too long
Wait too long, and I miss a big opportunity. However, being exposed to equities, I'll still ride the wave up. If I'm wrong altogether, I'm still invested in equities and will ride the wave up. I will still be somewhat hesitant to invest into LEAPS through this rate cutting cycle considering history warns against leveraging into QE.
Thank you for coming to my Ted Talk.
InTheMoney
Calling the Macro Blow-off Top: 2.5x returns in only 4 years?Today I see the QQQ struggling to break another ATh on it's winning streak. Like many investors, I have no reason industrially to believe that the entire information technology sector is worth 2.5x what it was worth in 2020 spring. It was overvalued then, and now, well, goldilocks is about to meet the bears and say - well, I want it that way (pointing to the cold bowl of oatmeal). Listen. When a blow-off-top manifests, it's easy to buy in. Just like the head and shoulders doesn't seem like a head when you are standing on the head. But srsly - we are standing on the head, and boyo jack is going to cut htis beanstock now, and either the giant falling down is going to crush us, or we'll make off with the golden goos. My current allocations: 58% Treasuries earning north of 5% in the "BIL" etf (a much better hedge than bonds, now that correlation has resumed between bonds and stocks), and 42% Value Equities, with no holding having a P/E above 30, and with all holdings having positive Earnings, Positive Growth, and ROE above 20%. That is what fundamental investing is, folks. I own companies that earn money and project to earn money. I don't own hope. Anyone owning hope is in delusion. Own fundamentals. And join me on the side with all your potfolio in AMEX:BIL , and laugh at the next 10 years of consolidation. I estimate nearly 0% overall growth in the tech sector over the next 5 years, and AI will create as many problems as it solves - a net loss, in my opinion.
QQQ & the market are heading higher! BULL RUN CONTINUATION! NASDAQ:QQQ and the overall markets are heading higher based on our High Five Setup Trading Strategy and what the charts are telling us!
- Ascending triangle breakout_retest_next is higher. This was a tricky one as we broke out and over shot the rest area but we are now back above the breakout area and set for ATH push this upcoming thanksgiving week IMO.
- Dropped down to our support zone and caught a bid as we anticipated due to AVP shelf and the 9ema.
- Williams R% needed that pullback last week, and now we have a retest of support and a bounce higher in our consolidation box. Giving us a strong signal we will build on the week we just had and head towards ATH's once more.
Measure move for the Ascending Triangle is:
$560
Measure Timeframe is:
March2025
For everyone that is calling a TOP across social medias. I say NO SIR! The charts DON'T LIE!
NFA
Nasdaq100 ETF - $QQQ - LET ME TALK TO YA!Nasdaq100 ETF - NASDAQ:QQQ - LET ME TALK TO YA! 🗣️
The charts know better than any FUD FURU just using whatever data to get their point across (metrics, valuation data, economic data, and valuation formulas). Unless you can get everyone on this planet to align to include the charts you or me don't know what this market will do at the end of the day/week/month/year!
Now that we got that out of the way as a follow up to all the fear spreading top callers, lets talk about the charts!
Just like with NASDAQ:AMZN we need to give room for retests, we had an ascending triangle, our H5 Indicator stayed green and so we gave the candlestick and ascending triangle pattern retest some wiggle room! Thus allowing for the bounce off the H5/ 9Ema and breaking back out over top of the pattern which is HIGHLY BULLISH as we have a successful retest now. I expect to claw back to ATH's now very soon!
Williams R% is also respecting the consolidation box and uptrend at the same time as seen on the chart. No bullet points just a lot of words and thoughts! Here's a chart too:
🎯$560
🎯$580
NFA
$QQQ Today's Trading range for 12.5.24In QQQ, we are overbought, overextended, and the 35 EMA is underneath the implied move for the day which often signals down or flat day
The implied move for today is between 519 and 527 and that is from options
The 30 day average volatility between 515 and 532
And the implied move on Friday’s contract 518 to 529.
Here, we are also just under all-time highs we made that in the last candle yesterday that is the only level to the upside and then 527 is the top of the implied move.
We have the 35 EMA underneath the implied move within that up gap from yesterday that does signal down or a flat day normally 519 is the bottom of the implied move. Bottom of that gap is, 517 and 518 bottom of the implied move on Friday’s contract
$QQQ Yesterday's Recap 12.4.24So I was unable to make a video tonight, so this is a recap of yesterday‘s price action. We did open QQQ with a gap above previous all-time highs, and then we pushed to the top and passed the top of the implied move, which was 521. Then passed the implied move for the next day and the 35EMA got into the green today. Pullback time?
So another day of all-time highs.
QQQ on the Edge: Breakout or Reversal? Key Levels to WatchTechnical Analysis & Price Action
* Trend Overview: QQQ continues its bullish momentum, reaching $523.52 before consolidating near $522. This upward channel is intact, with buyers maintaining control, but caution is warranted as it approaches resistance.
* Support Levels:
* $517.50: Immediate support aligning with recent pullbacks.
* $513.33: Strong support where buyers previously stepped in.
* $510.00: Key psychological support, failure here may lead to further downside.
* Resistance Levels:
* $523.52: Immediate resistance, a breakout above this level could push toward $530.
* $527–$530: Major resistance zone to watch for profit-taking or rejection.
Liquidity Zones & Order Blocks
* Liquidity Zone: $516–$517, high trading volume with significant activity, acting as a pivot zone.
* Order Block: $520–$522; a breakout here could signal bullish continuation.
Scalping Playbook
1. Bullish Setup:
* Entry: Above $523.52 with increasing volume.
* Target: $527 (partial) and $530.
* Stop Loss: Below $520.
2. Bearish Setup:
* Entry: Below $517.50 with a strong breakdown.
* Target: $513.33 (partial) and $510.
* Stop Loss: Above $520.
Swing Trade Strategy
1. Bullish Swing:
* Entry: Close above $523.52 with volume and bullish momentum.
* Target: $530 (short-term) and $535 (medium-term).
* Stop Loss: $520.
2. Bearish Swing:
* Entry: Close below $513.33 with strong selling pressure.
* Target: $510 and possibly $505.
* Stop Loss: $515.
Thoughts & Projections
* QQQ’s strong uptrend shows no immediate signs of reversal, but volume at resistance needs to be monitored closely.
* The MACD histogram indicates slowing momentum, suggesting a potential pullback before the next leg higher.
* Focus on intraday volume and watch for rejection near $523 or a breakout confirmation.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always perform your own due diligence and manage risk effectively.
QQQ forming a H+S patternPurely speculative just like the rest of you.
Looking like the head is forming. Left shoulder already there. Expecting a drop down to 503 (approx) neckline area. Bounce back up to form the right shoulder, then right around when Trump takes office that's when the pattern plays out all the way down to about 486 (approx)
Top 5 Weekly Trade Ideas #2 - QQQ TriangleQQQ opening near the top end of its triangle. Looking for a break above which should lead to a move up to ATH. We also have a longer term trendline that will be potential resistance shortly above. If we can clear all of that, I'd look for a rejection at ATH for a potential long on the trendline retest as shown above.
If it can't break, downside target would be the gap fill below.
QQQ Approaches Critical Resistance: Is a Breakout or Reversal?QQQ is trading near significant resistance levels after a strong rally. Here's a comprehensive analysis and trading plan to help traders navigate the current price action.
1️⃣ Price Action & Chart Analysis
* Trend Overview: QQQ is in a rising wedge pattern, which often signals potential exhaustion of the current uptrend.
* Key Levels:
* Resistance: $518.30 (current high), $525.00 (psychological resistance).
* Support: $513.30 (recent breakout level), $511.40 (previous strong support).
The current price is testing the upper trendline of the wedge, indicating a crucial area for decision-making.
2️⃣ Liquidity Zones & Order Blocks
* Liquidity Zone: Watch for price activity between $516.00–$518.30, where sellers could gain strength.
* Order Block: Strong demand identified near $511.00–$513.00 from prior accumulation.
3️⃣ Scalping Strategy
For intraday opportunities:
* Entry (Breakout): Buy above $518.50 if volume confirms the breakout. Target $520.50–$522.00.
* Stop-Loss: Below $517.00 to limit losses.
* Rejection Play: If $518.30 acts as resistance, consider a short trade targeting $515.00–$513.30.
4️⃣ Swing Trade Strategy
For multi-day setups:
* Entry Option 1: Go long on a confirmed breakout above $518.30 with increasing volume.
* Entry Option 2: Wait for a pullback to $513.00–$515.00 for better risk-reward.
* Targets:
* Initial Target: $525.00
* Extended Target: $530.00
* Stop-Loss: Below $511.00 for a more conservative approach.
5️⃣ Momentum & Indicators
* MACD: Positive momentum persists but shows signs of weakening, hinting at potential consolidation or pullback.
* Volume: Slightly decreasing volume may indicate hesitation among buyers.
Game Plan for Tomorrow
* Scenario 1: A breakout above $518.30 with strong volume could lead to further upside toward $525.00.
* Scenario 2: Rejection at $518.30 might result in a pullback to $513.00 or lower.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always perform your own research and consider your risk tolerance before trading.
Opening (IRA): QQQ December 20th 425 Covered Call... for a 421.94 debit.
Comments: As with my IWM covered call, re-upping in QQQ at a strike higher than the one I just took off in an attempt to capture the next increment of the up move that I missed out on.
I'm not expecting a ton out of this (the max is 3.06), but that's okay, since I'm not yet ready to go all the way out to January yet anyhow.
QQQ Analysis: Scalping and Swing Trade Strategies for Dec. 3QQQ has displayed strong bullish momentum, breaking out of its recent consolidation. This analysis provides a detailed trading plan, highlighting critical support and resistance levels, price action insights, and actionable strategies for both scalping and swing trading.
Technical Analysis and Price Action
1. Trend Overview:
QQQ has broken out of its descending channel, signaling bullish strength. The MACD confirms upward momentum, with volume increasing on the breakout.
2. Key Support & Resistance Zones:
* Support Levels:
* Primary: $511.35 (previous resistance, now turned support).
* Secondary: $510.11 (gap-fill level).
* Resistance Levels:
* Immediate: $516.26 (current high).
* Strong Resistance: $520.00 (psychological level and previous supply zone).
3. Liquidity Zones and Order Blocks:
* Buyers are concentrated at $511.35, suggesting strong demand.
* Sellers are active around $516.26, indicating a supply zone.
Game Plan and Playbook
Scalping Strategy
* Entry:
* Long: Above $516.26 with confirmation of strong volume.
* Short: Below $511.35 if breakdown occurs.
* Targets:
* Long Target: $518.00 (minor resistance) and $520.00 (major resistance).
* Short Target: $510.11.
* Stop Loss:
* Long: $515.00 (below breakout level).
* Short: $512.50 (above breakdown level).
Swing Trading Strategy
* Bullish Setup:
* Entry: Retest of $511.35 with bullish candlestick confirmation.
* Target 1: $520.00.
* Target 2: $525.00 (extension level).
* Stop Loss: $509.00 (below support).
* Bearish Setup:
* Entry: Breakdown below $510.11 with increased selling volume.
* Target 1: $502.00 (previous consolidation support).
* Target 2: $495.00.
* Stop Loss: $512.50.
Projection: Where QQQ Could Head Next
QQQ appears poised to test the $520.00 level if it sustains above $516.26. Failure to hold above $511.35 could trigger a pullback to $510.11 or lower. Volume will be critical in confirming the direction.
Key Indicators to Watch
* MACD: Bullish crossover supports further upside.
* RSI: Near overbought, signaling potential caution at higher levels.
* Volume: Watch for spikes to validate breakout or breakdown scenarios.
My Thoughts and Suggestions
QQQ is showing strong bullish momentum, but traders should exercise caution near resistance levels. Scalpers can capitalize on intraday volatility, while swing traders should wait for a retest of support or confirmation of a breakout. Patience is key to avoiding false breakouts.
Conclusion
The Nasdaq-100 ETF offers compelling opportunities for traders, with clear setups for both bulls and bears. By adhering to a structured plan, traders can maximize their edge while minimizing risk.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research and manage risk carefully.
Heavy Bearish Divs On QQQ, But...QQQ is sending clear warning signs in the form of strongly pronounced bearish divergences in the RSI, price-volume trend and other indicators. Of course, this does not necessarily mean that the market will now fall significantly. But if you look at other assets, you will see that the more pronounced the divergences, the greater the price movements.
What should we look out for now?
First of all, seasonality, which is very bullish here at the end of the year and usually in January too. We are looking at the daily chart here, so it may take some time for the divergences to ignite. Subsequently, a downward trend should establish itself in the subordinate time frames. The H1-H2 chart should be kept in view here. A pullback should then be awaited in order to find a favorable entry point.
What we can say for sure: The bull train is currently still in full swing. We know that many traders are observing the divergences, but one should not try to short the high due to the seasonality. When the bears return, there will be time enough for considered entries.
Last Correction for the Year and then we go back to sub 3% IR.We should see 1 more last correction during the holiday season before President Trump gets inaugurated. This might be one of the last golden eras where a president suppresses interest rates one last time to try to make the economy flourish again in these next 4 years. These last 4 years was a repeat of the 1970s great inflation with Jimmy Carter except now its with Joe Biden but instead of Donald Trump having a Paul Volcker fed chairman he has a very indecisive Jerome Powell whom will just kick inflation further down the road (via cutting interest rates back to sub 3%) for the next Fed chairman to deal with in 2026.
QQQ – Testing Resistance: Breakout or Fakeout?QQQ is testing a critical resistance level near $510, trading within a rising wedge pattern that suggests potential for both breakout and pullback scenarios. This analysis delves into key levels, technical indicators, and trade setups to navigate QQQ's next move.
Market Structure & Price Action:
* Recent Trend: QQQ has rebounded from the $494 support zone and is now retesting the upper resistance at $510.
* Liquidity Zones:
* Strong buyer activity near $501–$503.
* Sellers are concentrated at $510–$511, marking the top of the current range.
* Volume Profile: Volume has picked up during the upward push, but the absence of a clear breakout signal suggests caution.
Key Levels:
1. Resistance Zones:
* $510–$511: Immediate resistance and potential breakout zone.
* $515: Next target upon a successful breakout.
2. Support Zones:
* $503: Immediate support within the range.
* $494: Strong demand zone, acting as a floor for recent pullbacks.
Indicators:
* MACD (1-hour): Bullish momentum with a crossover, though the histogram is flattening, suggesting a slowdown.
* Volume: Watch for a volume spike at $510 to confirm a breakout or rejection.
Trade Ideas:
1. Scalping Setup:
* Entry (Long): Above $511 with confirmation of a breakout (volume surge and strong bullish candles).
* Target: $513–$515.
* Stop-Loss: Below $509.
* Short Setup: If rejected at $510, short below $509 targeting $503, with a stop above $511.
2. Swing Trading Setup:
* Bullish Case:
* Entry: On a breakout above $511.
* Target 1: $515.
* Target 2: $520.
* Stop-Loss: Below $509.
* Bearish Case:
* Entry: Short below $503.
* Target 1: $498.
* Target 2: $494.
* Stop-Loss: Above $505.
Thoughts & Outlook: QQQ is at a pivotal point, with $510 acting as a make-or-break level. A breakout above $511 could lead to significant bullish momentum, targeting $515 or higher. Conversely, rejection at $510 would suggest a move back to $503 or lower, offering opportunities for both scalpers and swing traders.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please conduct your own research and trade responsibly. Trading involves risk.