QQQ range boundQQQ hovering around the resistance of the core channel from 2010. Found support on the center of the black channel that is based on the COVID bubble. Price seems to generally range bound in this area between trendlines. Looks like more sideways without something big to push it one way or the other. Overall, it seems like tech has run out of FOMO. That does not mean we don't keep moving sideways and slowly up, but it does feel like any big moves to the upside are less likely.
QQQ trade ideas
Potential Downside Scenario with High Volatility for QQQGiven the recent performance of QQQ, which moved slightly upward during the second half of September but failed to hit a new all-time high, there's a sign of relative weakness compared to the broader market, which did achieve multiple new highs. Additionally, the Mag-7 stocks are showing short-term indecision, with some even hinting at potential bearish momentum.
Key Indicators for NASDAQ:QQQ :
Oscillators: Most of the oscillators, including the RSI (50.38) and the Stochastic %K (51.85), remain in neutral territory, indicating no clear momentum in either direction. Momentum (-5.99) and MACD (1.69) both signal short-term bearish sentiment.
Moving Averages: The majority of short-term moving averages (10, 20) are in sell territory, while the longer-term averages (50, 100, 200) remain in buy territory, reflecting the broader uptrend. This suggests that, despite the recent pullback, QQQ is still supported by a longer-term positive trend.
Ichimoku Base Line (485.55) and Hull Moving Average (486.10): These levels are also signaling potential consolidation, as they point to selling pressure near key levels.
Conclusion:
As a result, there is a potential downside correction with increased volatility in the near term. If this scenario materializes, the current mixed signals from major tech stocks and the overall technical setup will reinforce a bearish trend, causing risk-reward conditions to deteriorate rapidly. In such a case, long positions should be carefully reviewed and managed accordingly.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always assess your own risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.
Why I'm Bullish in the market on the midtermIntroduction
I want to break down why I’m optimistic about the current market conditions and share my strategy as we approach the release of CPI data. I’ll walk you through the big picture—the macroeconomic landscape, the Fed’s approach, economic indicators, and the geopolitical situation
MACRO ANALYSIS
1. Fed’s Approach Dovish
Let’s start by looking at the macro environment. Right now, the Federal Reserve is signaling rate cuts. Market now is expecting a 0.50 cut at the end of the year. A good question is why the Fed is cutting rates. In my opinion, the most important reason is that inflation is almost at its target of 2% year over year. This is crucial because it tells us that the economy isn’t overheating anymore. The Fed no longer needs to keep rates high to control inflation.
So what happens when rates come down? Companies can borrow money at lower costs, consumers can spend more freely, and overall, this adds fuel to the economy. We’re also seeing quantitative easing, meaning more liquidity is being pumped into the market. This will likely lead to a weaker US dollar, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. A weaker dollar can boost exports and benefit risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies and equities.
Adding to that, CHINA, Japan and potentially the EUR are taking dovish behavior in their monetary policy, CHINA stimulating the economy strongly. BOJ reducing the hawkish,Adding more fuel to the global markets.
2. Economic Strength
We’re seeing strong economic indicators.
JOLTS Job opening 8.14M vs 7.64M, ISM Services PMI were stronger than expected 54.9 VS 51.7 and continued above 50 indicating expansion. NFP data 254k vs 247 number better than expected, Unemployment rate 4.1% vs 4.2% better than expected.
These are signs that businesses are still hiring, consumers are still spending, and overall, the economy is not strugglin.
This is important because it means we’re not cutting rates due to a weak economy and helping it—. The FED is cutting rates because inflation is coming under control, not because businesses are struggling. This distinction is key for my optimism. Lower borrowing costs paired with a strong economy create a good environment for growth.
This means that a dovish monetary policy, strong economy potentiate the growth, expansion, investment on the economy and business that this is reflected in the equities prices.
3. Geopolitical Conflict
The third piece of the puzzle is the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. Yes, this adds some uncertainty to the global outlook, but from a market perspective, geopolitical events tend to create short-term volatility. As long as the situation doesn’t escalate further, I don’t see it as a mid-term threat to the broader market. When the situation stabilizes, we could even see markets gain more confidence. For now, I’m not letting this weigh too heavily on my decision-making.
Elections USA, just adding on this part that both sides are going to continue expanding the debt and increasing the expenditures, Trump is proposing more stimulus to the economy with a more aggressive reduction of the rates. Generally both sides offers similar paths but Trump more aggressive
CONCLUSION
In the midterm the macro indicates a good environment for the equities to continue higher.
Some names I’m looking for are in the crypto space such as IBIT, ETF as TQQQ and stocks as NVDA, Meta. But I will cover in another letter
QQQ Dancing on a High Wire $422.93: Golden Genesis fib and top?=QQQ is dancing on a high wire, a Golden Genesis fib at $422.93
Failure here could indicate top is in, so this is a key level here.
Just below is a fib confluence at $418, last stop before SERIOUS dip.
It is PROBABLE that we orbit this fib for a while.
It is POSSIBLE to bounce here and keep going up.
It is PLAUSIBLE a bull trap / distribution is done.
Here is a snapshot of the Genesis Sequence for the Q's:
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$QQQ Longer ViewpointNASDAQ:QQQ is lagging behind AMEX:SPY and has not reclaimed ATH ' yet .'
Looking at the weekly time frame, we can note that NASDAQ:QQQ has been bouncing off the trendline that started back in JAN 2023.
It has touched and bounced off that trendline 3x so far:
-MARCH 2023
-OCTOBER 2023
-AUGUST 2024
Each time it bounced, it ran for approximately 100pts + and took roughly 124 - 140 days before consolidation and/or a correction / retracement / pullback occurred.
From a technical standpoint, NASDAQ:QQQ will attempt at All Time Highs (ATH) at $503.52 again. We have to be conscience of the divergence between AMEX:SPY and $QQQ. AMEX:SPY has already made a new ATH while NASDAQ:QQQ is lagging behind.
If ATH is broken on NASDAQ:QQQ and price move similarly to the last two weekly trendline bounce, then price could reach $528 and some change before possible consolidation and/or a correction / retracement / pullback occurred with a timeline of around mid-December.
Failure to reclaim and/or break ATH can cause NASDAQ:QQQ to return back to the trendline.
This is NOT financial advice but an opinion.
QQQ breaks above downward trendQQQ reverses after massive selloff and goes into bullish rebound
Thursday Oct 1 saw massive sell off on high volume, signals reversal coming
confirmation of reversal came Friday Oct 4 when it broke the trend and held above
Gap fill on Friday morning was quickly followed by rally staying above downward trend entire day.
Made an entry at 484 expecting more buying to come
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QQQ expecting some down move before next move up. QQQ expecting some down move before next move up.
This is what I found in most bullish and bearish retracements , once you get 100% retracement of up or down move then next level is normally 1.618. If it retrace up to 50% after 100% then it's even more bullish, if it goes under 50% after 100% then it's super bearish. Have fun finding 50-100% fib retracements.
Top 5 Weekly Trade Ideas #2 - QQQ S/R Flip + Trend TestQQQ is similar to SPY/ES as usual. The $485 level has proven to be important, bulls have been holding it on every retest since it broke above last week. In addition we have a minor downtrend that could lead to a breakout, but also have the ascending channel/wedge.
The trendlines may help determine direction, but 485 is the most important to me and is the simplest way to approach this trade. Bullish above, bearish below. First downside target would a previous low around 479, upside target would be last week's high or the top end of its wedge.
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QQQ A Fall Expected! SELL!
My dear subscribers,
This is my opinion on the QQQ next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 486.76
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 468.18
My Stop Loss - 497.10
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Opening (IRA): QQQ October 18th 430 Monied Covered Call... for a 424.60 debit.
Comments: Re-upping in the Q's after profit taking ... .
As with my IWM position, I'm not being as aggressive as I usually am from a delta standpoint. This is because I've already made money in the cycle and want to give myself a little more room to be wrong since we've had somewhat of a bodice ripper from early August lows. Selling the -84 short call against stock, resulting in a setup with a net delta of around 16.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 424.60
Max Profit: 5.40
ROC at Max: 1.27%
50% Max: 2.70
ROC at 50% Max: .64%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max/roll out in-profit short call if there's a sell-off and the setup's net delta converges on +30.
Retail Trading ActivityRetail Trading Activity
👥 The Retail Trading Activity Tracker is a tool that monitors the daily buying and selling activity of retail investors for each stock, and they are rated based on the buying sentiment of each stock.
SYMBOL🟰%RETAIL ACTIVITY🟰SENTIMENT
NASDAQ:NVDA 13.68% 3
NASDAQ:TSLA 6.12% 2
NASDAQ:AMD 2.27% 3
$ESPIAR 1.97% 10
GETTEX:APL 1.94% 1
📊 Incredible things happened today on the Nasdaq from its opening and during the first 30 minutes of the session.
▪️ Yesterday, September 24, I drew a Fibonacci using the previous session's close as point A and the day's high, two hours before the market closed, as point B. The price fluctuated between the 78.6% and 61.8% levels, which are considered key support and resistance zones. It closed at a value of $485.
📈 Today, the market opened with an impressive bullish move of 1.6%, a significant increase of $7.7. However, upon reviewing the price behavior, we noticed it had been up for 5 consecutive days, which suggested the possibility of a healthy pullback.
📊 During the opening, the Fibonacci levels indicated our profit taking zones, but they were offset by a $7 price interruption between sessions.
▪️ This was a key point for taking a bearish stance for the day. On the NASDAQ:QQQ chart, it accurately respected the 61.8% levels, showing clear reactions at those zones on two occasions. This confirmed the importance of these levels for price action in the session; the levels were exactly $485.
SPY and QQQ Short: Reversal CandleThis is to correct my previous post regarding activating a bullish count. The fact that we finally have a major sell-down is enough for me to turn back bearish and back to my thesis that stock market will collapse, bond yields will fall, Fed will cut i/r before the election, and Democrats will lose the election.
This idea is based on:
1. SPY completing 5 waves,
2. QQQ completing A-B-C, and
3. Huge sell down candle.