US-Market SentimentUS Market Sentiment and Swing-Trading Considerations -
NASDAQ Heatmap
Color-Coded Performance Indicators:
Green Boxes: Represent stocks that have had positive performance over the past week. The intensity of the green color indicates the level of positive performance, with darker greens showing stronger gains.
Red Boxes: Represent stocks that have experienced negative performance. Similarly, darker reds show larger declines.
Sector Analysis:
Technology Services: Companies like NASDAQ:MSFT (Microsoft) and NASDAQ:GOOG (Alphabet) show moderate gains, suggesting a positive sentiment in the technology services sector.
Electronic Technology: A mixed view with significant gains by NASDAQ:NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) but a slight decline in NASDAQ:AAPL (Apple) indicating a divergence in performance within this sector.
Retail Trade: NASDAQ:AMZN (Amazon.com Inc) shows a strong performance, which is a positive sign for the e-commerce space within retail. However, PDD and MELI experienced notable declines.
Health Technology: Mostly green with strong performances from companies like AZN, indicating good momentum in this sector.
Consumer Durables: NASDAQ:TSLA (Tesla Motors, Inc.) is down significantly, which could suggest a potential concern for the electric vehicle or broader consumer durables market.
Consumer Non-Durables: A mix of performance, though PEP is up, which might indicate stability in consumer staples.
Notable Stock Movements:
NVDA: The strong gain suggests investor confidence or positive news related to the semiconductor industry or the company specifically.
ADBE: The notable decline could be due to earnings reports, market sentiment, or sector-related news impacting software companies.
AMZN: A substantial increase like this could be driven by positive earnings, favorable market news, or successful business ventures.
TSLA: A sharp decline may be the result of negative press, disappointing earnings, or adverse industry developments.
Market Sentiment:
The overall market sentiment can be gauged by the balance of green to red. In this heatmap, green appears more prevalent in larger squares (representing larger companies by market cap), suggesting a cautiously optimistic sentiment among major players.
Considerations for Swing Trading:
Momentum Stocks: Stocks like AMZN and NVDA with strong positive momentum could be considered for a swing trade, following Minervini’s principle of trading in sync with the market trend.
Volume and Price Action: Before making trading decisions, it's important to analyze the volume and price action for confirmation of the trends suggested by the heatmap.
Potential Reversals: Stocks like TSLA and ADBE that have experienced significant drops might be scrutinized for potential reversals if they approach technical support levels.
Final Thoughts:
This heatmap is a snapshot and does not provide the granularity needed to make a final trading decision. It is a starting point for identifying potential stocks to trade. A trader following Minervini’s methodology would look for specific technical setups, such as tight price consolidation, relative strength, and trading volume, among other factors, before entering a trade.
It's also important to consider that the heatmap shows past performance, which is not always indicative of future results. Each potential trade should be evaluated in the context of current market conditions, news, and comprehensive technical analysis.
QQQ trade ideas
Opening (IRA): QQQ April 19th 405 Monied Covered Call... for a 397.94 debit.
Comments: Re-establishing here in the Q's with a +25 delta monied covered call to take advantage of call side skew.
Will look to add at intervals, dispersing risk across expiries, and generally take profit at 50% max and/or roll out the short call on test.
Metrics:
Max Profit: 7.06 ($706)
ROC %-age at Max/50% Max: 1.77% at max; .89 at 50% max
Break Even/Cost Basis: 397.94
Delta/Theta: 25.42/11.42
QQQ 440 level why it reached 439.23 is there a 5th 5 wave =444 ?The chart posted shows the math as to why we reached the area of 440 so far the high is within .77 cents 439.23 so far was the peak .Can we reach the upper target of 444.1 .Well so far we have dropped in a 3 wave and are near the BB bands and .382 of wave 3 . and the 4 hr channel This is why I have taken a long side again .
$QQQ Tomorrow’s Trading Range for 2.21, Fed minutes, $NVDA earnNASDAQ:QQQ Tomorrow’s Trading Range for 2.21, Fed minutes, NASDAQ:NVDA earnings
Tomorrow’s trading range is wider than normal because we have FED minutes at 2pm and NVDA earnings in after hours.
We have a cool range tomorrow 30min 200MA with a bear gap to the upside, 1hre 200MA and a bull gap to the downside… LOL.
Come check out the video for a full walkthrough but I’m excited to see how tomorrow plays out. GL
QQQ confirmed daily lower highOn Friday QQQ set daily lower high, marking potential trend reversal. Now bears must lead price all the way down (below 425.3) to start weekly consolidation. If this doesn't happen fast and bulls manage to set daily higher low then uptrend continuation is still an option.
Also notable that bulls were able to close price gap from Tuesday, and bull wave retracement is over 50%. This talks in favor of bulls strength and increases probability of daily higher low.
Hourly price action is currently in downtrend but given the context I would be looking for hourly trend reversal signals
Disclaimer
I don't give trading or investing advices, just sharing my thoughts
NASDAQ-100 and QQQ facing correction?We have been seeing a massive rally led by tech since last 2023 continuing in 2024. Personally I was expecting a major pullback in the first weeks of 2024 but it was just a very small one.
Earnings continue to be decent, but in many sectors is getting disappointing and we have to remember that the tech heavy ETF and the index is basically NVIDIA, and some other semiconductor hype based on AI and the potential for transformation.
Technical data points to another small pullback but Wednesday-post market(NVIDIA earnings) will determine how deep this pullback is, based on investor sentiment on the current semiconductor industry and AI prospects of impact.
QQQ Weekly Wave Prediction + Chart PatternQQQ weekly chart now has an intention to complete wave 5 and then have an a-b-c correction wave. The large weekly chart pattern is a rising wedge and it has the potential to make a head and shoulder pattern with a bullish trape (if wave a is long enough to reach the neck price line). Ideally the first half of 2024 would be in a downturn, let's short and get rich!
Mometnum, Growth & Innovation: Portfolio PerformanceMy portfolio is up by more than 11% in 2024, and up by more than 30% over the last 4 months. Here is a summary of our current stock holdings:
www.tradingview.com
1. NASDAQ: NASDAQ:TQQQ (ProShares UltraPro QQQ)
Overview: TQQQ is a leveraged ETF designed to return three times the daily performance of the NASDAQ-100 Index. It's suitable for experienced traders due to its high volatility and potential for significant gains or losses within short periods.
Considerations: The performance of TQQQ closely follows the tech-heavy NASDAQ-100 index, making it sensitive to movements in technology stocks. Given its leveraged nature, it's important to monitor closely and consider it for short-term trades rather than long-term investments.
2. NYSE: NYSE:CCJ (Cameco Corporation)
Overview: Cameco is one of the world's largest uranium producers. The company's performance is closely tied to the demand for nuclear energy and uranium prices.
Considerations: With growing interest in clean energy, nuclear power may see increased demand, potentially benefiting Cameco. However, the market for uranium can be volatile, influenced by regulatory changes and global energy policies.
3. NASDAQ:ROKU (Roku, Inc.)
Overview: Roku is a major player in the streaming media sector, offering devices and platforms that connect users to streaming content.
Considerations: Roku's performance is influenced by its ability to attract new users, its partnerships with content providers, and competition within the streaming industry. The shift towards streaming entertainment can benefit Roku, but it operates in a highly competitive market.
4. NASDAQ: NASDAQ:MELI (MercadoLibre, Inc.)
Overview: Often referred to as the "Amazon of Latin America," MercadoLibre operates a marketplace, payments, and e-commerce platform in Latin America.
Considerations: MELI benefits from the growing e-commerce and digital payments sector in Latin America. Its performance is influenced by regional economic conditions, internet penetration rates, and competitive pressures.
5. NASDAQ: NASDAQ:VRTX (Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated)
Overview: Vertex Pharmaceuticals is a biotechnology company focusing on developing treatments for cystic fibrosis and other diseases.
Considerations: VRTX's performance is heavily dependent on its drug pipeline's success, regulatory approvals, and patent protections. The biotech sector is known for its high risk/reward ratio, with significant potential for both gains and losses.
6. NASDAQ: NASDAQ:IONS (Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.)
Overview: Ionis specializes in RNA-targeted drug discovery and development, focusing on a wide range of diseases.
Considerations: Like VRTX, IONS' success hinges on its research outcomes, clinical trial results, and regulatory environment. It's a high-risk investment with the potential for substantial rewards based on drug development success.
7. NASDAQ:AVDX (Avidity Biosciences, Inc.)
Overview: Assuming AVDX was intended to refer to a biotech company, it's important to verify the ticker symbol as it wasn't recognized. If it's a typo, the actual company might also be in a high-risk biotech or related sector.
Considerations: For biotech firms, investor focus should be on product pipelines, funding for research, and potential for regulatory approvals.
8. NYSE:GRMN (Garmin Ltd.)
Overview: Garmin is known for its GPS technology and wearable devices. The company has diversified its product line to include fitness, aviation, marine, and outdoor products.
Considerations: Garmin's performance is influenced by its innovation in technology, market penetration in its various segments, and competition with other tech and wearable companies.
9. NASDAQ:CASY (Casey's General Stores, Inc.)
Overview: Casey's operates convenience stores across the United States, offering a mix of food, groceries, and fuel.
Considerations: Casey's is impacted by fuel price fluctuations, consumer spending habits, and its ability to expand its store network. Its focus on community and local markets provides a niche advantage.
Growth, Momentum & Innovation: Updated WatchlistUpdated Watchlist
As we dive deeper into our trading strategy inspired by Mark Minervini, I'm excited to share a detailed analysis of our updated watchlist:
www.tradingview.com
This list is meticulously curated, focusing on stocks poised for potential pullback entries, suitable for short to medium-term trades. Here’s what we’ve analyzed:
Selection of Stocks in Strong Uptrends: Our primary filter is selecting stocks exhibiting strong uptrends over the past weeks or months. We use specific criteria like stocks trading above their 50-day and 200-day moving averages, a sign of enduring strength. Additionally, we look for stocks outperforming the market index, indicating relative strength.
Volume Analysis During Pullbacks: We observe the trading volume during pullbacks. An ideal scenario is a pullback on lower-than-average volume, suggesting a lack of selling pressure. A sudden increase in volume can sometimes signal capitulation, which might lead to a potential reversal.
Key Support Levels and Technical Indicators: Stocks approaching critical support levels, such as major moving averages or historical support zones, are of high interest. We combine this with technical indicators like the RSI (Relative Strength Index) and MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) to gauge oversold conditions and potential bullish divergence.
Price Action and Chart Patterns: We're scrutinizing price patterns that align with Minervini's SEPA (Specific Entry Point Analysis) criteria. This includes looking for stocks forming bases, tight consolidations, or exhibiting orderly pullbacks without significant volume spikes. Flags, pennants, and narrow range days near support areas are particularly noteworthy.
Earnings and Fundamental Check: While our focus is on technical analysis, we don't ignore fundamental aspects. We check upcoming earnings dates and ensure that the stocks have solid fundamentals, aligning with Minervini's preference for quality stocks.
Here is a detailed sector analysis of the stock on our watchlist:
Technology (27 stocks)
The Technology sector is heavily represented in your watchlist, indicating a focus on companies involved in software, hardware, and various technology services. This sector is known for its growth potential, innovation, and significant impact on global trends. Companies like Google, Microsoft, and AMD are included, reflecting an interest in both established giants and emerging players.
Healthcare (7 stocks)
This sector includes companies involved in pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, and medical devices. With stocks like Amgen and Regeneron, the focus seems to be on companies with strong R&D capabilities and potential breakthrough therapies or technologies.
Financials (1 stock)
A smaller focus in your watchlist, indicating a selective interest in the financial services industry. StoneCo is included, suggesting an interest in fintech or emerging financial technologies.
Materials (1 stock)
With Cameco Corp included, there's an interest in the materials sector, potentially focusing on resources critical to the technology and energy sectors, such as uranium for nuclear energy.
Internet (6 stocks)
A focus on companies that operate primarily on the internet, including e-commerce, social media, and online services, suggests a bullish view on the digital economy's growth prospects.
Software (9 stocks)
Software companies, including those providing cloud services, enterprise software solutions, and software development tools, indicate a strong belief in the continued expansion of digital transformation across industries.
Biotechnology (4 stocks)
With a focus on biotech firms like CRISPR and Vertex Pharmaceuticals, there's a clear interest in companies that are on the cutting edge of medical research and development, potentially offering high rewards but also high risk.
Information Technology (7 stocks)
This includes a broader look at IT companies, focusing on semiconductors, software, and technology services, highlighting the critical role of IT infrastructure in the modern economy.
Semiconductors (3 stocks)
With companies like TSMC, AMD, and Qualcomm, there's a targeted interest in the semiconductor industry, which is vital for a wide range of technologies from consumer electronics to data centers and AI.
This analysis shows a diversified yet focused interest in sectors that are pivotal to technological innovation and digital transformation. The emphasis on Technology, Healthcare, and Internet-related stocks suggests a strategy that leans towards growth investing, particularly in areas that are expected to shape future economic landscapes.
QQQ: Bearish Continuation is Expected! Here is Why:
The charts are full of distraction, disturbance and are a graveyard of fear and greed which shall not cloud our judgement on the current state of affairs in the QQQ pair price action which suggests a high likelihood of a coming move down.
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QQQ - Here is what I am watchingQQQ's price has approached the resistance trendline at the top of the trading channel since 2010. It's crucial to monitor this line for a potential breakout. If we observe an upward breakout followed by clear confirmation, it could resemble another "bubble" similar to what we saw in 2021. Otherwise, the price might continue its upward trend while trading sideways until a catalyst emerges.
Valuations for stocks currently appear to be overvalued, resembling late 2020 levels. Depending on the indicator you prefer, we are currently seeing PE ratios and the Buffet indicator ranging from 1.5x to 1.7x standard deviations above the historical average.
Prices have already been inflated due to the AI-driven surge last year, and robust economic growth may further drive prices upward as momentum (MOMO) and fear of missing out (FOMO) take hold. Since November, any significant sell-off has been met with strong buying, as we observed this week.
Predicting price movement becomes challenging when we reach the edges of historical price trends. Good luck out there.
Opening (IRA): QQQ June 21st 355 Short Put... for a 3.60 credit.
Comments: Laddering out at intervals, targeting the <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit to emulate dollar cost averaging into the broad market. I've already got March, April, and May rungs on, so going out to June here.