QQQ trade ideas
QQQ: Will Start Growing! Here is Why:
The price of QQQ will most likely increase soon enough, due to the demand beginning to exceed supply which we can see by looking at the chart of the pair.
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QQQ - WEEKLY CHART - BEARISH OPTION INTO 2025This is a long term weekly chart of the QQQ
It seems like, if we won't take the 485 out to the upside, we may see a di [ going into 2025 with potential of almost 50% correction
I am holding 85% cash and waiting for the future to come
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QQQ September Week 1 TradingThe almost perfect 78.6 retracement and head and shoulders on the QQQ.
If the August 5th level is challenged we could be headed lower towards $408.
QQQ: End of Wave 1 of Wave CMore selling is expected in the market. We may get a bounce early in the week if wave 3 is not finished, but I am expecting a hard gap down sometime next week to complete Wave 1. From there, we will get a sizeable rally probably going into rate decision. After that, a MUCH larger series of selling in October or November.
QQQ The Target Is UP! BUY!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for QQQ below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 448.69
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 463.68
About Used Indicators:
The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Major earnings are times to hedge or BTDAs far more eloquent and technical writers have covered (spotgamma, etc) - it's very clear that the markets in general are driven by single name options on the largest market cap companies.
And to help visualize just how much volatility can happen around earnings on these single names, I wanted to be able to visualize those earnings dates and impacts against some of the major benchmark ETFs like SPY or QQQ.
So far, I hadn't seen a place that gives this a more clear presentation so here is my first attempt at visualizing just how large the ripples are from the "megacaps" (AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA, etc) in a very "glanceable" way.
Introducing this indicator here first!
Earnings Date Highlighter - from0_to_1
Easily see the earnings dates from top market movers or the top holdings of your favorite ETF!
QQQ is about to dropReturn at least to VWAP, possibly much further down.
Stops above 490, NVDA earnings could make this a rollercoaster ride.
QQQ is showing to be rather volatileQQQ is showing to be less predictable and prone to false breakouts
Last week QQQ performed a two day long false breakout above before retreating
Today we see QQQ again break below its downward trend.
breaking below a downward trend is usually followed by a course correction back into the normal trading zone
QQQ is proving to be volatile and thus difficult to define when a trend is actually reversing or just another fake out that takes our money.
$QQQ Trading range for QQQ 9.6.24The 4hr 200MA just above us, the 1hr 200MA above that and the 30min 35EMA. Those are the only levels in today’s trading range.
If that turns out to be resistance, or if we start with downward momentum the bottom of the implied move has a down gap and up gap to fill, and think that we’re going to fill that sooner than later.
Happy Trading, y’all!!
QQQ more downsideQQQ and the broader markets are correcting as expected. NVDA was tremendously overvalued. Many companies are selling off into value zones at this point as the Mag 7 continues to bleed. Look back at my retrospective QQQ chart and how it perfectly corrected at the golden ratio. I expect a bit more downside here, September is typically the worst month of the year for markets.
-My target before Sept 21st is 444$
-The 50 EMA will likely rise to the red dashed line or close, we could see a wick to that region in the next 2/3 weeks
-I expect a retest of 500ish by end of year
QQQ forms horizontal support line QQQ has sold off quite a bit over the past 2 weeks. We are now starting to see consolidation as selling pressure reduces
Horizontal support line starts to form after sell off
Still within downward trading range
Could be stock is taking a breather before more selling continues
September and at times October are notably bad months of the year
We are seeing a settling right now, but we still are in a downtrend and the beginning of a historically bad month.
QQQ: Last Chance to React - Major Support Levels.Since our last study of the QQQ, the ETF has reached the support points we described earlier, and now its price is trying to stabilize, but we have yet to see a promising reaction.
Looking at the daily chart for QQQ, we can see that after reaching the resistance zone near $484.43, the price has sharply declined, retracing towards the 38.2% Fibonacci level around $460. The 50% retracement level around $453, followed by the 61.8% level near $446, may act as critical support levels if the price continues to weaken. The 21-day EMA is currently acting as dynamic resistance, and only a breakout of this key point would bring somethihng new on QQQ, as it will enter bullish territory again.
On the weekly chart, the price remains within a well-defined ascending channel. The recent rejection near the upper boundary of the channel shows that this trend remains intact but could be vulnerable to further downside corrections, especially if the price cannot hold support at the lower Fibonacci levels. The 21-week EMA is still trending upward and should be watched closely as a potential area for support in the medium term.
In summary, QQQ is showing signs of weakness after failing to break resistance at $484.43. With Fibonacci retracement levels providing near-term support, we should watch for a possible breakdown below the 38.2% level, which could lead to a deeper pullback toward the 50% and 61.8% levels. If support holds, the price could attempt another push higher, but the 21-day EMA needs to be reclaimed for the bullish trend to regain strength. Therefore, it feels like this is the last chance for the QQQ to react, otherwise, we may see a sharp correction ahead.
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Remember, real trading is reactive, not predictive, so let's stay focused on the key points described above and only trade when there is confirmation.
“To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate.” — Jesse Lauriston Livermore
All the best,
Nathan.
There is a Gap Down to close QQQ lower band of Fox Volume conflence with lower Bamd + a possible retest of 200 DEMA
QQQ in correction - How low will it go?QQQ lost the 20 day SMA yesterday. History shows that there is a very strong probability that it will go lower. Today say it hold at the support of the AI-based rally over the last year or so. It broke through that the other week, but then we say the strong rally. I noted back then that it felt like a dead cat bounce counter rally to me. Looks like it is proving to be true. It is going to be tricky knowing where this one will stop. I previous posts I noted that red trend line a critical level and that is where we saw the dramatic bounce start from. I am sure where this one will stop. QQQ is usually very bullish and the second of two corrections can often be less than that first. I am looking at that red trend line again, the 200 day SMA, as well as the center of the trading channel.
Weekly Patterns: Key Insights to Improve Your Short-Term TradingBy analyzing 150 weeks of OHLC data from the NASDAQ:QQQ , two important patterns emerge for traders operating in shorter timeframes (15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours). The behavior of the previous week's candle provides valuable insights that can help traders better align their strategies with the broader market direction, avoiding premature trades and capitalizing on the prevailing trend.
Key Insights:
After a Negative Weekly Candle (Close < Open):
There is a 70.31% chance that the next week's low will be lower than the previous week's low.
The chance that the next week's high will be higher than the previous week's high is only 39.06% .
After a Positive Weekly Candle (Close > Open):
There is a 77.65% chance that the next week's high will be higher than the previous week's high.
The chance that the next week's low will be lower than the previous week's low is only 27.06% .
What Does This Mean for Traders in Shorter Timeframes?
1. After a Negative Weekly Candle:
This pattern suggests that while the low of the previous week has not been broken, traders should be cautious with long trades. There is a strong statistical expectation that the low will eventually be broken during the week when the previous weekly candle was negative. Traders should be more conservative with bullish setups, as there is a higher likelihood of a downside move.
2. After a Positive Weekly Candle:
Similarly, when the previous week's candle is positive, while the high of the previous week has not been broken, traders should be cautious with short trades. There is a strong statistical expectation that the high will eventually be broken, given the 77.65% chance of the next week's high being higher. This means traders should be more conservative with bearish setups, as there is a higher likelihood of an upside move.
When Do These Scenarios Have Lower Expectations?
An additional pattern observed from the data is the occurrence of outside bars, where both the high and the low of the previous candle are broken in the same week. In the last 150 weeks (approximately 3 years), this occurred in only 22 weeks (14.67%) . This means that after one extreme of the candle is broken, it becomes less likely that the other extreme will also be broken within the same week.
For example, imagine that the previous weekly candle is negative and, during the current week, the price breaks above the previous week's high. In this situation, the probability of the low also being broken, as initially expected, becomes much lower once the high has been breached.
This insight helps traders adjust their expectations during the week. Once an extreme (either high or low) is broken, it signals that the probability of the price reversing and breaking the other extreme has diminished. Therefore, traders should reconsider their positions and strategies based on this shift in probabilities.
Practical Application:
Scenario 1: After a Negative Weekly Candle
Imagine the week has just started, and the price is trading above the previous week's low. Even if your system generates buy signals in smaller timeframes, this 70.31% chance of a lower low suggests you should be cautious about entering long positions too early. The market is more likely to break the previous low, so it's advisable to avoid aggressive buying until that expectation is fulfilled. However, if the high is broken first, the expectation of the low being broken decreases significantly.
Scenario 2: After a Positive Weekly Candle
In the case of a positive weekly candle, if the price is trading below the previous week's high, this 77.65% chance of a higher high suggests you should be cautious about entering short positions too early. The market is more likely to break the previous high, so it's advisable to avoid aggressive selling until the high is broken. Similarly, if the low is broken first, the expectation of a higher high diminishes.
Summary:
- After a negative weekly candle, focus on downside setups and be cautious with buying until the low is broken. If the high is broken first, the probability of the low breaking decreases.
- After a positive weekly candle, focus on upside setups and be cautious with selling until the high is broken. If the low is broken first, the probability of the high breaking decreases.
By aligning your trades with these weekly expectations, and adjusting when one extreme is broken, you can better anticipate market movements and improve your decision-making process in shorter timeframes.
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Disclaimer:
The information provided in this analysis is for educational and informational purposes only. While the insights shared are based on historical data and patterns, it is essential for traders to conduct their own research and due diligence before making any trading decisions. The market is unpredictable, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Use this information as part of a broader strategy and consider your own risk tolerance before entering any trade.
BUY THIS DIP QQQ / NUMEROLOGY 9.4.2024 AM as you can see the Fibbs line up flawlessly with the gap. It might drop down and retrace just above the gap for a swing yet looking at the numerology this level would equal 8 which would be the money as well. These are some basics and although September has started red it will end green. As always wait on CONFIRMATION before any action, patience with perfection and a plan always wins. For a much more detailed outlook, don’t hesitate to ask. LUP_247 Have an awesome day!
QQQ falls back into bearish territoryQQQ past breakouts above shows it was false by selling off in a massive way with strong volume
Failed to hold above new support downward trend
Failed to hold above major horizontal support line
closed with hammer candle on high volume. This last item we dont expect to be a major turned around point back to bull. It should just be rise back up horizontal resistance before selling off again
Comparing with SPY we see that it has now for the first time broke its flat trading today and break below key support with strength. The confirmation between the indicates the bears are back in control
TUE 9.3 QQQ Downside target Using Masonic angles and TPO points of control this is the secondary low target for QQQ if it continues downward. This is the next buy zone for a swing upward on a weekly.
Pivot Points 180 " chart, 5 tradesForget Elliot Wave Theory for a minute, think only pivot points.
I call buying S5 and selling R5 as the ultimate buy and sell zones. It sounds
too easy. n Lets examine4 trades, easily spotted.
1. BUY May 22 2024, below S5-S6
2. SELL July 11 2024 R5
3. BUY August 05 2024 S5
4. Sell August 22, R3.5
5 BUY S5 , August 28
6. September 03-04 2024..
SELL R5?
to be continued.. inside this Idea look for total points gained, and EWT wave counts
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QQQ Long/Short Idea - Top 5 Weekly Trade Ideas #2We saw a $6.5 MOC buy side imbalance on SPY last Friday, which led to a huge spike into close. QQQ had over $2 billion as well I believe. I don't think you can read much into the MOC movement, it's only good if you want to trade the final 10 minutes IMO. We'll see how it plays out, but as of now I believe the pop before close due to MOC will be retraced shortly.
Either way, I see a great setup on QQQ here, whether it ends up being short or long. QQQ had a nice bull flag breakout and even held on a retest. However, it has struggled a lot around the 477.75 area. If it is able to reclaim, I'd expect a squeeze to ATH at minimum. This level should lead to a decent sized move, whether the direction is up or down. I'll be looking for a break of 477.75 and a retest for a long. If it fails after all those attempts last week, I'd expect it to fill the gap below at 463.63.
