Consolidation before a big move?Just an idea I'm keeping an eye out for. Depending on the strength of price action and news, everything is subject to change. GLTA!
QQQ trade ideas
QQQ Bear Flag Trade IdeasQQQ is very similar to SPY as usual. Same bear flag and overall.structure. We have last week's highs above along with a gap fill and the top end of its bear flag. If QQQ.rejects from here, I'd expect it to go.back and test last week's low which is also the April low.
I can't stress the importance of the April low enough, there's a reason NQ saw two bounces at that exact spot. Bulls must defend that area or else. If we break below and stay below, that's a confirmed bear market in my eyes. Why? Because it would be the first major lower low on QQQ or SPY since October of 2023. That would mean the uptrend from then is now over and we'll move into a downtrend for.who knows how long.
The April low.is the difference between this being a correction versus an extended bear market that may accelerate faster than you'd think.
QQQ Set To Grow! BUY!
My dear friends,
My technical analysis for QQQ is below:
The market is trading on 450.55 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation.
Target - 467.96
Recommended Stop Loss - 440.00
About Used Indicators:
A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
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QQQ - another move downwardQQQ is retesting the trend line along with golden area of Fibonacci retracement.
targeting 423/412
good luck!
QQQ: Long Trade with Entry/SL/TP
QQQ
- Classic bullish formation
- Our team expects growth
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Buy QQQ
Entry Level - 450.55
Sl - 438.41
Tp - 471.95
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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Retroactive Fib study on QQQTrue to form, large volume and hot markets tend to respect fibs on longer term time frames. If you look at the 2021 swing high and 2022 swing low, you will note the golden ratio (1.618 fib) was the most recent local top for QQQ. This is how I was able to call relatively close local tops on both NVDA and TSLA. This does not always pan out, but if youre in a leveraged trade these are logical end points.
-QQQ has already come back to my momentum trend line (teal)
-I expect higher in general from here maybe 525 before a long slow bleed all of next year
Looking for this $455 gap closewe have to close this gap some how. we should move towards this gap today and either close it today or monday gap fill
QQQ Critical Resistance TestMuch line NQ, QQQ has an ascending channel/wedge. I consider this 450 area to be incredibly important for price action in the near future. This is similar to what we're seeing on ES as well. There are a lot of names that have retraced the dump from Monday and are sitting right where they started.
This is make or break for bears. Bears have not had the best time over the past year, but finally got some relief this week. I think we're at a critical spot where if bears can't hold, they're just going to get squeezed again. If they manage to push QQQ back down below Monday's and April's lows, they may finally turn this thing around and send it down for the majority of this fall.
QQQ - Couple Longs BROS OLED On a short term time frame (1 hour candles) the Q's are trying to break the 448 level we have spoken about earlier this week. I am daytrading the Q's right now long based on this setup with a tight stop at the lower end of the consolidation.
However that is not what this is about. I am taking position trades in OLED and BROS buying some stock, and also going long DITM Calls. Just cheaper than buying outright.
BROS
Long 100 shares @ 30.19
Buy to Open SEP20 25C @ 5.80
OLED
Sell to open AUG16 165P @ 2.23
Buy to Open SEP20 140C @ 30.89
I also added a few stocks to my long term portfolio buying
AMZN - Add
BLDR - New Position
OLED - Add
And selling some of my LMT just to trim into the rally it had.
QQQ - Closed for a LossClosed out the QQQ short and options trade. Taking my loss and looking for longs here.
As I mentioned 448 is the key level for bulls, taking it out after the open is a sign that the bulls have taken control and I need to get out of my short trade.
Losses are a part of trading, never be upset to take a small loss.
QQQ - Bulls Taking Control - Trading TodayQQQ is looking like the bulls are taking control here, which is not good for my short positions. Key level has been 448 for bulls and if we open above that out of the gate I will be considering closing my trades and taking my loss.
I may flip on the backside and look to sell some short term PUTSs expiring today as I really do not want to hold a short PUT position over the weekend with all the uncertainty going on.
Just a heads up for the daily trading.
In addition I am interested in a few stocks:
Dutch Brothers Coffee (BROS):
Love me some coffee and this one seems to be oversold here. Very range bound chart, but what is interesting about it is that every time DBC sells off it recovers. So looking at selling some Puts here to step in and or you can buy outright for a target of 39. Stop at $23.75.
Facebook (META):
With the market down 10% off its highs, META is only slightly down and now it is approaching the 520 level and taking out the high.
So if META is strong during bad times, if we get a market rally I would expect META to do very very well, so this is another on my list of stocks to trade today.
Universal Display (OLED)
Another quality growth company selling off on earnings, so I am looking to take a position here as well either selling Puts to step in, or buying outright.
Other than META these are all longer term position trades I am looking to sell in the future. These are not part of my core porfolio which does not turn over very frequently.
As for the trade, well you win some you lose some and as long as your winners are bigger than your losers you will make money!!! Again I will see where we are at the open and decide at that time. Not going to close out or cover a trade pre-market.
QQQ - Rolling Out 442 till TomorrowGoing ahead and rolling out my 442 short Call to tomorrow collecting another $1.80. Will see what we do tomorrow, but no harm in grabbing some more premium here.
Buy to Close Aug8 442 C
Sell to Open Aug9 442 C @ $1.80
QQQ - Options TradeSell to Open Aug8 442Call 2.81 one (1) contract.
This contract expires today so I like the decay on the contract, especially with the market trading right at the POC.
QQQ - Update - Not A Convincing OpenWell at least not horrible news on the unemployment front, but the market is not buying it. At this point the they come out with OK numbers and then are 11 for 12 in revising lower so the market is not buying the BS.
Also the chances of recession are increasing here, don't need to go any further than looking around at all the discounts companies are offering. Twelve months ago there were no deals on trucks, now they are offering incentives. Same with Motorcycles, 1.99% financing was not an option, now its everywhere.
Groceries are also coming down, look at meat prices, eggs, and dairy. Lower lower lower. With the exception of chicken thighs, they seem to be holding their own. Crappy because that is what I feed my dogs which are on raw diets ;(/.
Anyways, layoffs are starting to trickle in with the likes of John Deere, Dell, Wells Fargo and other large companies. These are good paying jobs with benies and this will trickle into the service industry. I mean seriously, we went to breakfast the other day and it was $35 for the two of us.
In short, I am not convinced and it looks like the market is not convinced this is a roaring economy. Also the rise in unemployment is starting to approach 5 and houses simply are not selling like hotcakes anymore. In our neighborhood in Florida, a house would be on for at most 3-5 days, not we have several that have been on 2-3 months.
This is the domino effect, anyone that can buy, is simply looking at the numbers and thinking, hmmmmmm in six months I can get a lower rate. This feeds into a housing recession. We are one of those, we just sold our rental and we are looking to buy another. However in order to avoid taxes through a 1033 exchange, we have to buy here.
So I may take a stab at selling some short term calls in the meantime. See where we are in a few and I will post the trade as I take them.
SMC tells me we are bullish for QQQBullish break of structure signaling a bullish premarket. I can see this run continuing and topping out at the EQHs of the previous 3 days. Moreover, if this gap doesn't get filled am we can see the top being swept before the sweep of the lows.
What's going on with QQQ and Tech?Here is what I have been tracking with my technical analysis. What we saw since the end of July is the AI bubble losing its momentum.
What happened?
You can see on June 24th where price gaps up above the long-standing blue trading channel from 2009 that contained trading from 2009 until the 2020 bubble.
You can see it gap down back into the blue channel on July 24th.
It found some support on the mid-line of the longer running black channel from 2009 that includes the covid bubble peak.
Then we got a test of the blue channel resistance on August 1st with a very strong rejection.
Then the bottom dropped out to break below the AI rally purple channel.
Where are we now?
The morning open on Monday saw a test of the red trend line with a strong rally to back above the 200.
We saw a test of the previous purple channel with a high wick on Tuesday.
Today (Wednesday) saw a strong rejection of the channel, where it looks like support has now become resistance. We saw the high wick touch the orange price line around $449. The good news is that the 200-day SMA is showing support again.
Where are we going (this is my guess)?
It looks like the market is trapped between a rock and a hard place. I think the 200 day and the red trend line are going to give QQQ support as long as there are no other panics.
It is unlikely that the AI momentum will be coming back either.
I think it is going to drift sideways for a few days before picking a direction. This means it may bounce up and down between the purple channel and the 200-day into next week. You can see the red down channel that has now formed.
If we do get a counter rally then I would expect it to stay inside the channel. That would leave us with a potential another leg down. The RSI is only a little into the oversold range. How far? My guess would be either the red trend line again, or maybe even farther to the center of the blue channel. We get down that low, then I have a bunch of cash to go long.
I just can't see why QQQ would rally back to ATH now. There is way too much uncertainty now, but markets are irrational. I could see QQQ working back up the underside of the purple channel until the end of the year, with a lot of up and down action.
I really do think that there is a bigger pullback sometime in the next several months. The market is just running close to the top of the decade plus trading channel and the AI bubble may finally become deflating some. I believe that we will see a touch of the center line of the blue channel in the next few months, which could be Nov or Dec time frame. That will give us a lot more room to rally and make some good money.
QQQ - After Hours TradeJust went short 100 shares of QQQ @ 432.37.
Reasoning:
I mentioned prior that the 448 level was a key level to take out for the bulls. We tested it today a couple times on the hourly and it failed. This is a sign of weakness, and though anything can happen, probabilities favor a take out of 433 here.
This may be a short hold depending on what goes on tomorrow after the open. I only took a partial position and will see how things go if I want to add or close it out tomorrow.
Hourly Chart: This is for daytrading and I do not base my direction on this chart, direction is based on longer time frames, and then I look for trades in the direction of those time frames.
The market filled the gap from the open on Monday yet as it retested the broader trend line, which overlapped with the key 448 level, it printed two bearish pinbars. Had I been daytrading this would have been a setup to look for, but unfortunately I was at the Doctor's office ;(.
Anyways the rejection here after filling the gap and failing to take out the 448 level is bearish in my opinion and I am positioning to take out 433 tomorrow morning.
Going back to the weekly chart and looking at order flow, there really is no support until 409 but real support is down there around 370. This would represent about a 25% pullback and a good area to start loading up on stocks.
Remember anything can happen here, if money was made easy everyone would be a trader. Do not discount a rally in the near term, but IMO the market is reverting to the mean.
$QQQ #GapFillnGo #Kamalanomics #InsertCackle #DEI #GoWokeGoBrokeIt's looking pretty sus out here y'all...
Warned you with this rising wedge call out;
This one isn't as #Golden / #Perfect ... But the reward on Friday puts for 8/9 vs the risk seem too "Juicy" to overlook ...
Also, thanks to the 400+ followers, love seeing the comments and messaging with some of you as well! If y'all could do a #WellnessCheck on @cryptotrader6932198 it would be appreciated, he's gone missing for days after hating on me non stop for days... #Odd... I think he's either back at work or checked himself into a drug rehab, read the mans comments lmao
mix of 8/9s and some 8/16s , have light feet in "Chopnesphere" ie; LEG IN
#SurvivalOfTheFittest
- Proph
QQQ predictionI expect QQQ to retest 500 again before the end of the year and break the level before falling apart. I have had most of this chart drawn for a very long time and have long expected a correction to the intersection of the purple lines at some point. This collides with the monthly demand zone which makes sense.
-In short by next fall I think this will already be playing out
-Short-term bullish, long term bearish
-I would be very surprised if QQQ hit 600
$QQQ Trading Range for Today, August 7th 2024NASDAQ:QQQ Trading Range for Today, August 7th 2024
Ok. Last night I feel asleep without getting the second part of my video done. I have been exHAUTed this past week but next week I will have more energy and a lot of sleep is on the books for me.
So today’s implied move is between 448-431
Tomorrow’s implied move 431-451
To the upside, look out to the 35EMA on the 30min timeframe. Look for signs of support and if we get above it than the target to the upside today on the day is 448. Which is within the bear gap that we did not close yesterday.
To the downside, we have a bull gap from yesterdays gap up, the bottom of that gap is at 5186, and then the bottom of the implied move for today is 431.
The WEEKLY 35EMA is also cutting right through the trading range and is a critical level to have on your chart today. Premarket trading takes us above that already so look to that as a possible support.
GL y’all…
QQQ Completed a Cycle Expecting to Resume the RallyShort Term Elliott Wave in QQQ suggests that the ETF has completed a bearish sequence from 7.11.2024 high. The decline made a zig zag Elliott Wave structure. Down from 7.11.2024 high, wave (A) ended at 455.63 low. Rally in wave (B) ended at 475.61 with internal subdivision as a expanded flat structure. Up from wave (A), wave A ended at 467.94 and wave B ended at 452.31. Wave C higher ended at 475.61 which completed wave (B) in higher degree.
Then, QQQ turned lower in wave (C) with internal subdivision as an impulse structure. Down from wave (B), wave 1 ended at 444.47 and wave 2 ended at 450.49. Wave 3 lower ended at 426.59 and wave 4 ended at 436.17. Final leg wave 5 ended at 420.00 which completed wave (C) and ((4)) in higher degree. The current rally is in progress expecting to continue higher as wave ((5)). Near term, we are calling a leading diagonal as wave 1 of (1) of ((5)). This wave 1 ended at 447.07 high. Now, we are expecting to correct the cycle as wave 2 before resuming to the update in wave 3. The view is valid as price action stays above 420.00 low.
Macroeconomic History Tells Us Rough Times Are AheadIn 2023, I did a write up on TradingView about how there is a positive correlation between interest rates and equities, meaning that equites tend to decrease when interest rates decrease. However, correlation does not equal causation. The real correlation is between poor economic data and the stock market, where the poor economic data spurs interest rate cuts and causes a fall in equities. The recent surprisingly bad July jobs report jolted the markets, and reasonably so. The Fed decided to hold interest rates steady in July, causing some to think that they may be behind the curve. Not to mention the Sahm Rule flashed positive; an economic observation that has never been wrong in being a precursor to a recession. fred.stlouisfed.org
I am of the party that the Fed is behind the curve
In the past, Jerome Powell has stated that he doesn't expect a "severe" recession, and that there could be a "softish" landing, hinting at the difficulties that the Fed faced in preventing a recession altogether. I believe that the stock market will continue to fall, mixed with large rallies (which will make buying the bottom difficult), and I think this will play out for many months.
So what's my plan?
I sold my LEAPS before the poor jobs market data was released, saving my bacon to be honest. I sold my HOOD profits as well, as I had made a 100% return. I then took both and dumped the funds into QQQ. I do not hold cash in case I am wrong. I would rather be wrong and invested than wrong and sitting on cash. I plan on waiting until the Q's drop another 20% or so before buying LEAPS. Typically, I advise only to put 10% into LEAPS, but this could be a rare opportunity where risk on could pay of in a big way. When I do decide to jump in, I will buy LEAPS with expirations two years out. I want to give them the longest time frame possible because I know I won't be able to time the bottom perfectly.
The real risk is waiting too long
Wait too long, and I miss a big opportunity. However, being exposed to equities, I'll still ride the wave up. If I'm wrong altogether, I'm still invested in equities and will ride the wave up. I will still be somewhat hesitant to invest into LEAPS through this rate cutting cycle considering history warns against leveraging into QE.
Thank you for coming to my Ted Talk.
InTheMoney
