6/10/24 - $rely - starting buy here at $13: google trends fire6/10/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:RELY - another fintech another lower low. this tape is simply brutal to attempt to buy anything that's not hitting ATH which is just reflexivity to the max. hard to short market. hard to be in cash. so the real "hedge" which is paradoxical and also equally comical and disgusting... is to take a step out of the risk curve and find smaller co's that are being tossed out with the bathwater and start building positions. I've been doing this with NASDAQ:DLO as of friday, added more today. NYSE:YOU is also a favorite position. you get the idea.
i've watched NASDAQ:RELY for a long time and am convinced they're the marginal gainer at everyone else's expense. their remit product is just better, UX, service, reasonable fees. mostly digital etc. the issue for rely has always been one of valuation and meeting/ crushing high expectations (and it was v shorted in the past/ not so much today). here's what i'll offer here:
google trends are your best friend for tracking rely all else equal
trends.google.com
this last few months trend has been WOW.
again bridging valuation, stock/ charts and the google trends is an art, not a science, but clearly the co. is continuing to deliver and expectations have come way down.
i can't pretend like 45c of gaap earnings on a $13 stock price is cheap.
i can't also unsee the ginormous gap fill issue from the fake banking issue in early '23 that destroyed fintechs and that's at ~$11.5/shr.
but ultimately, if you can't handle a 15-20% drawdown on a 30% grower that has key KPIs moving in the right direction, great mgmt (this is a prerequisite for me going to any higher than a 2% position in my book)... then you're probably not in the right biz and should just buy SPY.
but for those who keep digging, there are a lot of gems out there in a MT context. i'm half size on today's move. perhaps too big. will feel out the nasdaq - i'm still skeptical - but started a position here at $13.
lmk if you can add to the above - i'd appreciate any ideas/ thoughts or thoughtful disagreements.
V
