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RIVN trade ideas

Rivian Update: Count is on trackToday was a good day. Hopefully others were able to take advantage of Rivian's moves. Keep in mind this is just the beginning. The next target I have, as you can see by my box, is $20.91-$21.64. Price could easily extend beyond that point but that is the "standard" ending for what I am calling wave 1 of (3). If price does extend out, then the most likely next ending would be the 2.618 fib extension @ $23.89. You can't see it on here I don't think, but the 2.618 is right by where my two trend lines intersect. Let's not get too ahead of ourselves though and remain conservative as to keep the profits we have already made. From where we are now It seems we have almost finished this micro (i) of v. To me, the micro's look as if it is in its last mini-wave 4&5 of i. We are also approaching my trend line and will most likely bounce down off of that IF we reach it. That would make a good spot to end the mini-wave i and start our retrace for ii. Until we finish mini-wave i and have started wave ii I'm not going to try and guess where we will retrace to. Technically according to EWT rules we can retrace all the way to $17.77 and still remain a valid count. Also, something else to keep in mind, we made a new high today and almost have a 5-wave structure moving up. This could, technically speaking, be ALL of wave v of 1. I don't think either are the case, but something to keep in the back of your mind to be ready for any scenario. I work tomorrow but will update as able. Good luck everyone!! P.S: In case you missed it, I have exited ALL option positions. I have still retained my shares as I don't have to worry about decay / added volatility. I am not bearish as you can tell, I just wanted to capture their profits. When we retrace, I will buy more options and post them on here as always. Bonam Fortunam, --Tyler
NASDAQ:RIVNLong
by TSuth
24
Rivian Update: 12/12/23I don't have time to go to far in depth tonight. Suffice to say I believe I was one degree off and we should be headed back up tomorrow. We bounced off my bottom trend line to the cent on the 3min timeframe, raised on pos div so it has been a healthy raise, and the 1Hr MACD has began to curl up and is in need of a reset. These things are just a couple that give me confidence in the count. Tomorrow should hopefully bring some clarity on the matter. The target area I am watching for us to hit on the next ascent is around the $20-$22 range. Would be awesome to hit that tomorrow but highly doubtful. With the fed meeting you just never know though. Ideally I would like us to hit it by EOW. Bonam Fortunam, --Tyler
NASDAQ:RIVNLong
by TSuth
37
Rivian Update: Stock Pundits are a JOKEI saw an article earlier that literally said Rivian is getting a bump from Tesla's cyber truck. I just thought to myself, this guy needs to be fired. I don't usually get worked up but how lazy can you be. That has nothing to do with why Rivian stock is rising. TESLA didn't even raise from it as it's been stagnant for almost a month now. What a joke. I hope he/she reads this and is disappointed in themselves for the extremely lazy piece of "work" they decided to put out for people to waste their time reading. Anyway, on to what matters...the ACTUAL reasons Rivian is raising. I have been tracking Rivian for quite some time now, and I would argue I know it better then I know the Tesla chart. I have spent HOURS on Tesla too. Rivian, however, is so textbook to this point it's not even funny. If you are a long-time follower of me, you would know I started out posting on Rivian some time ago and have used it since to hone my skills. Well April of this year, Rivian made a very distinctive move and created it's forever bottom as long as the company remains to be operated wisely. @sriaishu traded that move with me and can also vouch I did indeed call it before it happened. After we completed that impulsive 5-wave move up for wave (1), we began a corrective 3-wave move down in the form of an ABC. Since that bottom we have rallied up to almost 30% and hit $19.55 before slightly retracing. According to my primary count we just finished wave iv and should start to move up for wave v of (iii). It is possible we get OML, but it should be slight if we do. MACD made a new high on ALL the micros, is on positive divergence, and the 1HR potentially changing direction (creating another higher low) all say we should head up. The count/structure suggests we should head up and many other signals are pointing higher, and soon. I suspect the next move up should target closer to the 1.618 fib @ $20.35 or possibly even extend past it. Idk if y'all read some of these "articles" out there but take note of how they have changed their tune on Rivian's stock as of late. As of now I currently have 250 shares around $15 and 60 calls. I will most likely sell all calls on the next big move higher to cash in those profits and then rebuy new contracts on the retrace. I will hold the shares for now and decide later when to sell them. I'm off tomorrow and will be watching. Good luck everyone, I hope you are capitalizing on Rivian. Bonam Fortunam, --Tyler
NASDAQ:RIVNLong
by TSuth
14
Rivian Update: POWER of EWT on FULL display todayWell, today was satisfying to say the least. I have been calling on a rise to start for a while now, and today I believe we have finally started that next big move higher. I have tried to be open about my limited experience comparatively and my need to improve on timing. I hope you all take that to heart when reading these posts that I create. I also want to thank Jesus for giving me the ability to predict price movements as I do. Without Him I couldn't do this! I only hope you all allow Him into your hearts and witness His blessings for yourselves. 🙏 As you notice on the chart, I again have multiple different colored labels. Per the usual, white=Primary, turquoise=1st ALT, orange=2nd ALT. My primary is allowing for a slight overlap in pricing with one stipulation. It HAS to go up from here. If it makes another low below $18.27 then my 2nd ALT becomes my primary. I know some of you are thinking, What about the 1st ALT? If price drops below $18.27, then that would cause price to overlap yet again, and I won't replace an overlapping count with another. That would break it down to these two options imo--#1: 2nd ALT suggesting we are in yet another wave 2 for another extension, #2: price/the count are breaking down. The arguments for my primary are in abundance. The 3min MACD made a new high since we bottomed on 10 Nov., ALL smaller timeframe and daily/weekly MACD's are pointing up, P/C ratio=0.395, Friday's and now today's impulsivity/strength etc. etc. Honestly, I could keep going lol. The 1Hr MACD hasn't pierced the red line I made yet though. This could signify extensions being made, just plain old complexity increasing, or potentially even the count starting to fracture/fail. Yes, that did escalate quickly! lol, I don't think price is starting to fail at this time...but something we need to watch out for, nonetheless. 2nd ALT suggests I am one degree off, and we have already completed our wave iii/iv and should move higher for wave v. The difference between my primary and 1st ALT will be very small and hard to distinguish until a little later in the count. So, unless we get clarity in price action or MACD I will most likely be tracking both of these counts for a while. Attached below is my 4HR chart showing a zoomed out big picture outlook, and a 3min chart as well showing how high MACD went today along with the micro price action. Tomorrow I am off and will be watching price action. If warranted I will make updates throughout the day. 3min chart 4HR chart Bonam Fortunam, --Tyler P.S: Who loves EWT???!!!!
NASDAQ:RIVNLong
by TSuth
11
Rivian Stock Surged Today: Here's Why It Could Keep SoaringRivian (NASDAQ: RIVN) stock is trading above its 10-day, 20-day, and 50-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), indicating an upward trend. The 10-day EMA is acting as a dynamic support level, while the 50-day EMA is acting as a long-term trend line. The stock is also above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), which is a bullish sign. However, the stock is below its 100-day EMA and SMA, which could act as resistance levels in the future. The relative strength index (RSI) is at 58.7, which is neither overbought nor oversold. The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) is positive and above its signal line, which is a bullish sign. Rivian is also trading above its pivot point of $17.76, which is a bullish sign. The next resistance levels are at $18.69, $19.35, and $20.28. The next support levels are at $17.10, $16.17, and $15.51. Rivian stock is in a strong uptrend and has positive momentum. However, some of the oscillators are indicating that the stock is overbought and could face a correction in the near term.
NASDAQ:RIVNLong
by DEXWireNews
Rivian Update: Finally on our way higher?We closed out Friday very well with a $1.27 / +7.58% in retained Market cap growth. Don't get me wrong we could give some of that up tomorrow, but I believe we should be in wave 3 of iii right now so to sputter out this early would be worrisome. Not to mention we haven't even breached the wave 1 of iii high. We need to breach wave 1 by enough that it gives room for a wave 4 retrace. Ideally, I would like us to hit the 1.382 @ $19.60 or even extend higher before we have our next retrace. Notice the red line on the MACD. I want us to breach this line which would be another indicator we are in fact in wave 3 of iii. Not required but typically something you should see. Hopefully tomorrow is a continuation of Friday and we jump at least another $1. Once I feel we start to get close to a local top I am going to sell most of my calls. I forgot to mention to y'all, on Friday, I sold 5 of my calls that expire 15 Dec. to capture some profits. Good luck y'all! Bonam Fortunam, --Tyler
NASDAQ:RIVNLong
by TSuth
32
RivianRivian changed the pickup truck industry when it launched the Rivian R1T in 2018. The company is known for producing quality electric pickups which evolved into the R1S. The company's books are not attractive but the vision and mission of the company are. The share price has fallen far from its IPO price of $ 78 and it is showing signs of a bottom. The EV space is very competitive and Rivian is in a man-eat-man industry. Where you either make it, collaborate, or file for bankruptcy and get acquired. It will be added to our portfolio. Waiting for the price to fall slightly but the stock is heavily discounted at the current price.
NASDAQ:RIVNLong
by Candles254
RIVIAN Potential triple bullish break-out ahead. Target $21.00.Rivian Automotive (RIVN) remained supported within the (green) Higher Lows Zone and on a significant Bullish Divergence on the 1D RSI (in the form of a Channel Up). This is an early bullish sentiment signal but the real technical catalyst is right ahead. That is the Triple Resistance zone consisting of the Inner Lower Highs trend-line as well as the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). This is a strong bullish combo signal if broken but in our personal opinion breaking and closing a 1D candle above the Inner Lower Highs will suffice. If successful, we will target $21.00 (the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which would make a Lower High at the top of the 4-month Bearish Megaphone (the 0.618 Fib was where the previous Lower High was formed). The pattern since the July 27 top is a Bearish Megaphone and Tuesday's low isn't only a Higher Low on the Support Zone but also a technical Lower Low on the Megaphone's bottom. The previous Lower Low rebound formed a top on the 0.618 Fibonacci level. As a result our short-term bullish target is $21.00. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:RIVNLong
by TradingShot
2
Rivian Update--11/21This will be a short update tonight. Today we fell perfectly according to the ALT count and have been carving out the final 4-5's to most likely drop to the 0.786 fib retracement @ $15.65. This is not a requirement, just a prediction. We may have even finished carving these out and head up tomorrow. If we do take off, I will make new fibs at that point and time. We made a new low on positive div today in the micros and the larger timeframes look ready to rise as well. Either way, we should be rising very soon. Rivian is running out of excuses not to lift off. That is what stocks do though, they can confuse and frustrate you to the point of forcing you to exit your pos. before the big move. For now, I remain patient and will see what happens in the next couple days. Bonam Fortunam, --Tyler
NASDAQ:RIVNLong
by TSuth
31
Rivian Update--11/20Lately it seems to me, Rivian just doesn't feel much like cooperating. It's overall following the path one would assume, but it just isn't quite normal. Maybe Tesla is having an outsized effect on it as some have suggested, maybe these are the first clues we're getting showcasing trader sentiment shifting back to a bearish bias in the markets, or maybe it's just being stubborn and doing what markets do best...confusing people. I have an ALT (turquoise labels/yellow box) placed on the chart which shows this could all still be part of wave (ii). If that is the case, we will either make another marginal high or just fall from this area down to the yellow box. This move up from $15.93 just doesn't seem to be impulsive. Started out looking great, but then price just kind of sputtered out. I would also expect MACD to be rising with much more strength, as of right now, the micros are on neg div. If this thing is to remain impulsive then it needs to start raising with much more strength and soon. Both the MACD and price. The count is there, its complete, all it needs is volume and the right catalyst. Everyone also assumes that Tesla is what props Rivian up. What if, at this current time, Tesla is the one holding Rivian back? Food for thought. What I would like to see, within the next day or two, is price start to head up or even tag my next target starting at $18.70 with "clear impulsivity" . Like I said before, all the ingredients are there, say one. Good luck everyone! Bonam Fortunam, --Tyler
NASDAQ:RIVNLong
by TSuth
15
Rivian Update--11/16Looks to me as if all systems are ready to push forward. Since we haven't breached the previous high there is always the chance, we make another low. With the way price reacted in my box along with the structure into the target makes me believe we should start up tomorrow. My expected path is on the chart. I left the blue fibs and the wave (ii) box in there in case we make another low y'all can have it as a reference. I'm off tomorrow and will update as able. This count is very similar to my Tesla count if y'all follow those posts. Hopefully tomorrow is good to us and we start our next move up. Bonam Fortunam, --Tyler
NASDAQ:RIVNLong
by TSuth
9
Rivian Update--11/14Today Rivian extended almost up to the 3.618 which is a somewhat common endpoint for an impulsive wave to extend to as I alluded to this morning in my update. I have labeled an abc for the wave 2 retrace but that could be off by a degree. The box I have marked would not change, however. I would not be surprised if we just take off tomorrow and don't make another low though. The strength we should have with this move up will be like that of Tesla in that it won't give many opportunities for entry. Another possibility is we start red tomorrow so some can take some profits, or those who are scared can minimize losses. After which the impulsive primary trend up should resume. I plan on buying more shares and most likely more calls if we get a good wave 2 retrace. Good luck y'all! Bonam Fortunam, --Tyler
NASDAQ:RIVNLong
by TSuth
29
Rivian Update--11/12This will be a quick update because my thoughts on Rivian are still unchanged. Sometimes it can be hard to remain objective on a count that you have put so much time and effort into. I try to always check that at the door. Partly because I know so many people read my posts but also because I'm putting my own money on the line lol. We are trading on positive divergence on EVERY time frame. The P/C ratio went from 0.37-0.56 Friday. We bounced literally 1 penny from my 1.382 fib line and have also been respecting the 0.786 fib retracement. Structurally this thing is cooked. There are just too many ways supporting this thing to go through the roof soon. Don't get me wrong, looking at the micros it looks as if it could maybe use another low, but they can be very deceiving. I've touched on that a few times and the same reason you hear me say things like "big count is king". Once we start to move up, I will make some new fibs to the upside. Rather that be tomorrow or sometime this week idk. For now, I predict we will move up to the low $20's fairly shortly after we start upon that path as an initial target before any decent retrace. This will be the start of wave III of (I) after all. Bonam Fortunam, --Tyler
NASDAQ:RIVN
by TSuth
15
Rivian Update--11/9The last couple days have not been kind to Rivian at all. We rallied almost 20% just to get smacked right back down. Looking at the 3min and 1Hr MACD though, they are both on positive divergence, and unlike Tesla, Rivian carved out a good impulsive 5 wave structure from the $15.29 bottom. That being said we 0.01 cents away from invalidating this part of the count and carving out a new low. This doesn't mean the whole count is wrong by any means, just that the bottom hasn't been struck. As always you should know your own risk tolerance and act accordingly. Part of the reason for buying options so far out is in case something unforeseen like this throws a wrench in the gears. Zoomed out clearly shows we have either bottomed or at the minimum are VERY close. If we have bottomed, I expect us to head towards the 0.618 @ $26.52 next. Let's see what tomorrow brings us. Bonam Fortunam, --Tyler
NASDAQ:RIVN
by TSuth
8
Rivian updateThe last couple days I have had to work, and they have been busy to say the least. It always makes trading hard when you can't analyze price action properly or watch it during the day. That being said, there was no way for most to foresee todays fall. I mean, pre-market started us out over 9% in the green. Then when market opened it absolutely tanked. By the time I was able to look at it, price had already fallen by over $2/share. My thesis on the reason price acted this way is people taking profits/shorting. The P/C ratio was 0.444 today though, so the vast majority are overwhelmingly bullish. We could still make a marginal low before raising to our next target so beware. As you see on the chart, I left the original fibs used for wave i with the 2.618 line added. This shows that it extended/ended 0.07cents from that fib. The 2.618 is arguably the most common end point for impulsive waves that have extended. This is one of the main reasons I have labeled the move up to $19.10 as all apart of wave i. This hard drop is what I call a gut wrenching wave 2. Makes you real nervous if you're unsure of the count and/or are over extended. Don't get me wrong, I felt todays drop lol. But it isn't something that could wreck my account. You should NEVER use so much of your account in one trade you're scared for it. If you do you won't last long in this game. Hopefully y'all saw my updates as I was able earlier and saw that these recent moves mirror Tesla's wave 1 of 3 quite closely. The drop today ended in between the 0.618-0.786 of wave i, stopped 0.01cents above the previous 0.382 (good sign), and currently are working with pos. div. on the micros. If we make another low, it should be minimal. I am off tomorrow and will be watching throughout the day. P.S I will be going part time in December so I should be able to watch the markets more often and take advantage of more trading opportunities. Good luck everyone! Bonam Fortunam, --Tyler
NASDAQ:RIVNLong
by TSuth
31
Rivian Update: Should Retrace for (ii)I have been pretty clear on my stance with Rivian thus far. I believe we are in the very beginning stages of it's wave III. If this line of thinking is correct, then this should be a VERY lucrative trade and one I intend to lean into a little harder. I'm watching for a 3 wave retrace into my box and will most likely start buying some more calls. I haven't shopped around yet so if y'all know of a contract with a strike around $25-$30 I'm all ears. Will most likely use a 60-120 day exp. I will update tomorrow as able. Bonam Fortunam, --Tyler
NASDAQ:RIVN
by TSuth
50
RIVIAN: Buy signal emerged.Rivian has found support inside April's HL Zone while the 1D RSI flattened. The 1D technical outlook is only slightly bearish (RSI = 42.485, MACD = -1.120, ADX = 38.728) despite being inside a Channel Down since July 27th. Technically it is replicating the January-April correction, which eventually bottomed when the 1D RSI flattened. We use the 1D MA200 rejection as a short term buy signal, aiming at the 1D MA50 (TP = 20.00). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
NASDAQ:RIVNLong
by InvestingScope
1
$RIVN Positive Gross Margin Within ReachRivian Automotive, Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) has been making strides this year as it has successfully increased its production and deliveries quarter over quarter throughout 2023. Despite the company’s impressive performance this year, its stock fell by as much as 33% since early October after it announced its intention to raise up to $1.725 billion in 3.625% green convertible senior notes due 2030. The EV startup raised the maximum amount it could from this offering, and with the offering something of the past, its PPS has the potential to recover thanks to its cost-saving endeavors that should allow it to post a gross profit in 2024 per management’s expectations. Given management’s track record of delivering on its promises, this dip could be an opportunity to go long on RIVN stock, especially with its Q3 earnings set to be released on November 7th. RIVN Fundamentals Persistent Cash Burn Ever since its inception, Rivian has been burning substantial amounts of cash as it is focused on manufacturing its vehicles using the best possible parts and technology. At the beginning of 2023, the company had $11.5 billion in cash on hand which dwindled to $9.2 billion by the end of Q2. That said, the company reported $942 million in short-term investments in the form of US Treasury securities and time deposits which boosted its liquidity position to $10.2 billion – meaning that it burned through $1.3 billion in the first half of the year. This issue is still persistent as Rivian projected its cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments to be $9.1 billion in Q3 in a recent SEC filing, meaning it burned through an additional $1.1 billion in the quarter. As such, it appears that the recent capital raise was necessary especially when considering that the EV startup’s priority is to maintain a strong balance sheet while scaling its future plans of launching its R2 models and its Georgia facility which is expected to begin producing vehicles in 2026. With this in mind, the company expects its liquidity position to be sufficient to fund its operations and capital expenditures through 2025. This is why I expect the EV startup to raise capital at least one more time in the future since it will have to burn cash to scale production in the Georgia facility. This may add pressure on the company since if it raises capital by selling equity, it would be diluting its shareholders, while if it heads to the debt market to raise capital, it risks its profitability prospects due to the high interest rates. Despite this, Rivian’s long-term prospects may still be bullish thanks to its management delivering on its promises as well as its ongoing and planned cost-saving measures that should allow it to start making money on the vehicles it sells. On the Right Track Towards Positive Margins Rivian is currently losing $33 thousand on every vehicle it sells per a recent Wall Street Journal report. This has led the company to task its engineers with cutting up to $40 thousand per vehicle in parts and production expenses per the same report. However, the company is still confident in its ability to achieve a gross profit by the end of 2024. That being said, Rivian has been making strides in improving its per-unit profitability as its gross profit per vehicle improved by $35 thousand in Q2 2023 due to cost reductions across materials, manufacturing, labor, overhead, and logistics, according to the company’s Q2 earnings call. Based on this, its gross margin improved substantially YoY from -193.41% to -36.75%. It is worth noting that the company’s cost of revenue included a $220 million charge to reflect the LCNRV of inventory and losses on firm purchase commitments. This means that the EV startup’s gross margin would have been -17.13% without accounting for the charge which shows the impressive job done by management to improve per-unit profitability. (in millions) Revenue $1,121 Cost of Revenue $1,533 Gross Margin -36.75% LCNRV Charge 220 CoR excluding LCNRV $1,313 Adjusted Gross Profit -$192 Adjusted Gross Margin -17.13% Considering that Rivian expects it won’t have material LCNRV inventory charges and losses on firm purchase commitments associated with goods manufactured at its Normal facility by the end of 2024, its target of positive gross margins by the end of 2024 appears to be realistic, especially since it is taking more measures that will further improve its per-unit profitability. Consolidating ECUs One of the biggest areas of improvement Rivian is making is its network architecture and consolidating a number of its ECUs into a smaller number of ECUs. These ECUs are little computers that have a specific set of functions that they control and they are found in all modern cars. The number of ECUs per vehicle has grown tremendously as automakers have been racing to add more technology to their vehicles which increases the cost of manufacturing a vehicle. As part of its hardware upgrade, Rivian is switching to a “zonal control architecture” which means that instead of an ECU having a specific role, the computers are tasked with zones or regions within the vehicles – reducing the number of ECUs and improving efficiency in turn. Ultimately, Rivian intends to reduce the number of ECUs in the vehicle by 60% which would result in a 25% reduction in the wiring harness length in the vehicle as detailed in the Q2 earnings call. The result of this is cost savings worth “multi-thousand” per vehicle according to CEO RJ Scaringe. Integrating Enduro Motors Another measure Rivian is taking to save costs is integrating its own Enduro drive – which was designed for the Amazon front-wheel-drive electric delivery vans – into its commercial vehicles. The Enduro motor is intended to be the basic motor used for the upcoming R2 vehicle platform that is expected to roll out in 2026 which will be geared toward smaller and more affordable vehicles that will broaden Rivian’s market reach. However, by integrating Enduro into its existing vehicles, the company is effectively saving costs while providing its vehicles with a performance edge. Currently, the original Bosch-supplied quad-motor still boasts the best figures with 835 horsepower. In comparison, the dual-motor Enduro delivers 533 horsepower while the performance version provides 665 horsepower. Max Battery Packs Although the Enduro-equipped trims pale in comparison to the quad-motor trim, Rivian has made its Max battery available for both trims which can be interpreted as the company making these trims more attractive while showcasing its capabilities ahead of the launch of R2 vehicles. Through the Max battery, the Rivian R1S SUV features a range of 400 miles which makes it the longest-range seven-passenger electric SUV on the market. Meanwhile, the Max battery provides 410 miles for the R1T pickup truck – making it the longest-range electric pickup on the market. The Max battery costs an additional $10 thousand over the Large battery and $16 thousand more than the smallest battery option. As these trims have a higher price point while costing less due to the inclusion of in-house Enduro motors, Rivian may further improve its gross margins in Q4 2023 since deliveries of R1S with the Max battery will start later this fall. Switching to LFP Batteries Rivian is also committed to switching its vehicles to LFP batteries from traditional NCM batteries, a move it already started implementing with its Amazon electric delivery vans earlier this year. This move will significantly drive down costs since LFP batteries are much cheaper than their NCM counterparts as iron phosphate, which is abundant and widely available, is one of the materials used in the production of LFP batteries. In contrast, NCM batteries use materials like cobalt and nickel which are more expensive and in limited supply. Additionally, all the minerals used in LFP batteries can be obtained in North America which means much lower transportation costs and a more secure supply chain. This is due to manganese being mostly sourced from China while cobalt is mainly found in the Democratic Republic of the Congo where the cobalt mining industry is under scrutiny due to human rights abuses. In this way, Rivian would manufacture its vehicles quicker – allowing for more production. Once all of these actions are successfully completed, Rivian expects the impact on the cost structure of its R1 program to be similar to the reductions on the EDV program where the company achieved a 35% reduction in material costs jointly with the shutdown that happened at the beginning of the year. On that note, Rivian is set to temporarily shut down its R1 line for retooling in the middle of 2024, per management in the Q2 earnings call. This shutdown should lead to lower costs while increasing the facility’s annual capacity from the current 65 thousand to 85 thousand and introducing new technologies. While the shutdown will certainly impact the company’s production and delivery figures in 2024, it will allow Rivian to implement the changes it needs to save costs and improve its chances of becoming profitable in the long term. Valuation Since Rivian is not profitable yet, using its forward P/S ratio to value it seems to be reasonable. As is, the EV startup is trading at 4.23 forward P/S which seems to be a bargain when comparing it to Tesla (Nasdaq: TSLA) which has nearly double Rivian’s forward P/S at 8.01. Moreover, when comparing Rivian’s forward P/S ratio with Lucid (Nasdaq: LCID), since both are EV Startups with negative margins, it also appears to be a bargain since Lucid boasts a forward P/S of 14.84 – more than triple that of Rivian. Based on this, Rivian may be at an extremely attractive valuation at current levels. Risks In addition to the company potentially raising capital again, there is another risk to the bullish thesis which is the current macro environment. With student loan repayments resuming last month after a 3-year pause, consumers may be forced to cut their spending to pay their debts which could leave fewer consumers able to buy a new vehicle. Considering that Rivian’s vehicles are considered to be luxury vehicles given their price point, its sales may be impacted which could see its margins deteriorate. Technical Analysis On the hourly chart, RIVN stock is in a bearish trend as it is trading in a downward channel. Looking at the indicators, the stock is above the 200, 50, and 21 MAs which is a bullish sign. Meanwhile, the RSI is approaching overbought at 66 and the MACD is approaching a bearish crossover. As for the fundamentals, the company’s upcoming Q3 earnings on November 7th will be a major catalyst as investors are anticipating further improvements in gross margin. This could be driven by Rivian’s efforts to save costs which will reflect on its profitability. As such, bullish investors could wait for a successful break of the upper trendline and the $18.2 resistance to go long on RIVN stock ahead of its earnings. RIVN Forecast While Rivian’s cash burn rate and its potential to raise capital for at least one more time are risks to consider, the EV startup may be well-positioned to weather the storm thanks to its management’s efforts to improve its profitability prospects. The EV startup improved its gross margin significantly in Q2 2023 which shows that management’s initial actions are successful. With that in mind, the company will temporarily shut down its R1 line in the middle of 2024 to implement the changes that will help it post a positive gross profit by the end of 2024 by consolidating its ECUs, continuing to integrate Enduro motors into R1 vehicles, and switching to LFP batteries. With the stock trading at a discount compared to EV giant Tesla and startup Lucid based on their forward P/S ratio, the current dip could be an opportunity to go long on RIVN stock.
NASDAQ:RIVN
by Penny_Stocks_Today
RIVN Rivian Automotive Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold RIVN ahead of the previous earnings: or here: Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of RIVN Rivian Automotive prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 18.50usd strike price Calls with an expiration date of 2023-11-17, for a premium of approximately $0.89. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
NASDAQ:RIVNLong
by TopgOptions