RIVN trade ideas
Rivian Update--11/28Today we hit a little over the 0.382 and then dropped for the micro wave 2. Then started to raise towards the 1.0 for micro 3. I would ideally like to see us hit the 1.0, drop to the 0.786 for micro wave 4 then back up around the 1.382 to finish the larger wave 3. Tesla appears to finally be moving higher. Let's hope it drags Rivian along with it to kick start its run.
I work the next 2 days but will update as able. Good luck!
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
RIVIAN Potential triple bullish break-out ahead. Target $21.00.Rivian Automotive (RIVN) remained supported within the (green) Higher Lows Zone and on a significant Bullish Divergence on the 1D RSI (in the form of a Channel Up). This is an early bullish sentiment signal but the real technical catalyst is right ahead.
That is the Triple Resistance zone consisting of the Inner Lower Highs trend-line as well as the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). This is a strong bullish combo signal if broken but in our personal opinion breaking and closing a 1D candle above the Inner Lower Highs will suffice. If successful, we will target $21.00 (the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which would make a Lower High at the top of the 4-month Bearish Megaphone (the 0.618 Fib was where the previous Lower High was formed).
The pattern since the July 27 top is a Bearish Megaphone and Tuesday's low isn't only a Higher Low on the Support Zone but also a technical Lower Low on the Megaphone's bottom. The previous Lower Low rebound formed a top on the 0.618 Fibonacci level. As a result our short-term bullish target is $21.00.
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Rivian Update--11/21This will be a short update tonight. Today we fell perfectly according to the ALT count and have been carving out the final 4-5's to most likely drop to the 0.786 fib retracement @ $15.65. This is not a requirement, just a prediction. We may have even finished carving these out and head up tomorrow. If we do take off, I will make new fibs at that point and time. We made a new low on positive div today in the micros and the larger timeframes look ready to rise as well. Either way, we should be rising very soon. Rivian is running out of excuses not to lift off. That is what stocks do though, they can confuse and frustrate you to the point of forcing you to exit your pos. before the big move. For now, I remain patient and will see what happens in the next couple days.
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
Rivian Update--11/20Lately it seems to me, Rivian just doesn't feel much like cooperating. It's overall following the path one would assume, but it just isn't quite normal. Maybe Tesla is having an outsized effect on it as some have suggested, maybe these are the first clues we're getting showcasing trader sentiment shifting back to a bearish bias in the markets, or maybe it's just being stubborn and doing what markets do best...confusing people.
I have an ALT (turquoise labels/yellow box) placed on the chart which shows this could all still be part of wave (ii). If that is the case, we will either make another marginal high or just fall from this area down to the yellow box. This move up from $15.93 just doesn't seem to be impulsive. Started out looking great, but then price just kind of sputtered out. I would also expect MACD to be rising with much more strength, as of right now, the micros are on neg div.
If this thing is to remain impulsive then it needs to start raising with much more strength and soon. Both the MACD and price. The count is there, its complete, all it needs is volume and the right catalyst. Everyone also assumes that Tesla is what props Rivian up. What if, at this current time, Tesla is the one holding Rivian back? Food for thought. What I would like to see, within the next day or two, is price start to head up or even tag my next target starting at $18.70 with "clear impulsivity" . Like I said before, all the ingredients are there, say one. Good luck everyone!
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
Rivian Update--11/16Looks to me as if all systems are ready to push forward. Since we haven't breached the previous high there is always the chance, we make another low. With the way price reacted in my box along with the structure into the target makes me believe we should start up tomorrow.
My expected path is on the chart. I left the blue fibs and the wave (ii) box in there in case we make another low y'all can have it as a reference. I'm off tomorrow and will update as able. This count is very similar to my Tesla count if y'all follow those posts. Hopefully tomorrow is good to us and we start our next move up.
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
Rivian Update--11/14Today Rivian extended almost up to the 3.618 which is a somewhat common endpoint for an impulsive wave to extend to as I alluded to this morning in my update. I have labeled an abc for the wave 2 retrace but that could be off by a degree. The box I have marked would not change, however.
I would not be surprised if we just take off tomorrow and don't make another low though. The strength we should have with this move up will be like that of Tesla in that it won't give many opportunities for entry. Another possibility is we start red tomorrow so some can take some profits, or those who are scared can minimize losses. After which the impulsive primary trend up should resume.
I plan on buying more shares and most likely more calls if we get a good wave 2 retrace. Good luck y'all!
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
Rivian Update--11/12This will be a quick update because my thoughts on Rivian are still unchanged. Sometimes it can be hard to remain objective on a count that you have put so much time and effort into. I try to always check that at the door. Partly because I know so many people read my posts but also because I'm putting my own money on the line lol.
We are trading on positive divergence on EVERY time frame. The P/C ratio went from 0.37-0.56 Friday. We bounced literally 1 penny from my 1.382 fib line and have also been respecting the 0.786 fib retracement. Structurally this thing is cooked. There are just too many ways supporting this thing to go through the roof soon. Don't get me wrong, looking at the micros it looks as if it could maybe use another low, but they can be very deceiving. I've touched on that a few times and the same reason you hear me say things like "big count is king".
Once we start to move up, I will make some new fibs to the upside. Rather that be tomorrow or sometime this week idk. For now, I predict we will move up to the low $20's fairly shortly after we start upon that path as an initial target before any decent retrace. This will be the start of wave III of (I) after all.
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
Rivian Update--11/9The last couple days have not been kind to Rivian at all. We rallied almost 20% just to get smacked right back down. Looking at the 3min and 1Hr MACD though, they are both on positive divergence, and unlike Tesla, Rivian carved out a good impulsive 5 wave structure from the $15.29 bottom. That being said we 0.01 cents away from invalidating this part of the count and carving out a new low. This doesn't mean the whole count is wrong by any means, just that the bottom hasn't been struck.
As always you should know your own risk tolerance and act accordingly. Part of the reason for buying options so far out is in case something unforeseen like this throws a wrench in the gears. Zoomed out clearly shows we have either bottomed or at the minimum are VERY close. If we have bottomed, I expect us to head towards the 0.618 @ $26.52 next. Let's see what tomorrow brings us.
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
Rivian updateThe last couple days I have had to work, and they have been busy to say the least. It always makes trading hard when you can't analyze price action properly or watch it during the day. That being said, there was no way for most to foresee todays fall. I mean, pre-market started us out over 9% in the green. Then when market opened it absolutely tanked. By the time I was able to look at it, price had already fallen by over $2/share. My thesis on the reason price acted this way is people taking profits/shorting. The P/C ratio was 0.444 today though, so the vast majority are overwhelmingly bullish. We could still make a marginal low before raising to our next target so beware.
As you see on the chart, I left the original fibs used for wave i with the 2.618 line added. This shows that it extended/ended 0.07cents from that fib. The 2.618 is arguably the most common end point for impulsive waves that have extended. This is one of the main reasons I have labeled the move up to $19.10 as all apart of wave i. This hard drop is what I call a gut wrenching wave 2. Makes you real nervous if you're unsure of the count and/or are over extended. Don't get me wrong, I felt todays drop lol. But it isn't something that could wreck my account. You should NEVER use so much of your account in one trade you're scared for it. If you do you won't last long in this game.
Hopefully y'all saw my updates as I was able earlier and saw that these recent moves mirror Tesla's wave 1 of 3 quite closely. The drop today ended in between the 0.618-0.786 of wave i, stopped 0.01cents above the previous 0.382 (good sign), and currently are working with pos. div. on the micros. If we make another low, it should be minimal. I am off tomorrow and will be watching throughout the day.
P.S I will be going part time in December so I should be able to watch the markets more often and take advantage of more trading opportunities. Good luck everyone!
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
Rivian Update: Should Retrace for (ii)I have been pretty clear on my stance with Rivian thus far. I believe we are in the very beginning stages of it's wave III. If this line of thinking is correct, then this should be a VERY lucrative trade and one I intend to lean into a little harder. I'm watching for a 3 wave retrace into my box and will most likely start buying some more calls. I haven't shopped around yet so if y'all know of a contract with a strike around $25-$30 I'm all ears. Will most likely use a 60-120 day exp. I will update tomorrow as able.
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
RIVIAN: Buy signal emerged.Rivian has found support inside April's HL Zone while the 1D RSI flattened. The 1D technical outlook is only slightly bearish (RSI = 42.485, MACD = -1.120, ADX = 38.728) despite being inside a Channel Down since July 27th. Technically it is replicating the January-April correction, which eventually bottomed when the 1D RSI flattened.
We use the 1D MA200 rejection as a short term buy signal, aiming at the 1D MA50 (TP = 20.00).
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$RIVN Positive Gross Margin Within ReachRivian Automotive, Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) has been making strides this year as it has successfully increased its production and deliveries quarter over quarter throughout 2023. Despite the company’s impressive performance this year, its stock fell by as much as 33% since early October after it announced its intention to raise up to $1.725 billion in 3.625% green convertible senior notes due 2030. The EV startup raised the maximum amount it could from this offering, and with the offering something of the past, its PPS has the potential to recover thanks to its cost-saving endeavors that should allow it to post a gross profit in 2024 per management’s expectations. Given management’s track record of delivering on its promises, this dip could be an opportunity to go long on RIVN stock, especially with its Q3 earnings set to be released on November 7th.
RIVN Fundamentals
Persistent Cash Burn
Ever since its inception, Rivian has been burning substantial amounts of cash as it is focused on manufacturing its vehicles using the best possible parts and technology. At the beginning of 2023, the company had $11.5 billion in cash on hand which dwindled to $9.2 billion by the end of Q2. That said, the company reported $942 million in short-term investments in the form of US Treasury securities and time deposits which boosted its liquidity position to $10.2 billion – meaning that it burned through $1.3 billion in the first half of the year.
This issue is still persistent as Rivian projected its cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments to be $9.1 billion in Q3 in a recent SEC filing, meaning it burned through an additional $1.1 billion in the quarter. As such, it appears that the recent capital raise was necessary especially when considering that the EV startup’s priority is to maintain a strong balance sheet while scaling its future plans of launching its R2 models and its Georgia facility which is expected to begin producing vehicles in 2026.
With this in mind, the company expects its liquidity position to be sufficient to fund its operations and capital expenditures through 2025. This is why I expect the EV startup to raise capital at least one more time in the future since it will have to burn cash to scale production in the Georgia facility. This may add pressure on the company since if it raises capital by selling equity, it would be diluting its shareholders, while if it heads to the debt market to raise capital, it risks its profitability prospects due to the high interest rates.
Despite this, Rivian’s long-term prospects may still be bullish thanks to its management delivering on its promises as well as its ongoing and planned cost-saving measures that should allow it to start making money on the vehicles it sells.
On the Right Track Towards Positive Margins
Rivian is currently losing $33 thousand on every vehicle it sells per a recent Wall Street Journal report. This has led the company to task its engineers with cutting up to $40 thousand per vehicle in parts and production expenses per the same report. However, the company is still confident in its ability to achieve a gross profit by the end of 2024.
That being said, Rivian has been making strides in improving its per-unit profitability as its gross profit per vehicle improved by $35 thousand in Q2 2023 due to cost reductions across materials, manufacturing, labor, overhead, and logistics, according to the company’s Q2 earnings call. Based on this, its gross margin improved substantially YoY from -193.41% to -36.75%.
It is worth noting that the company’s cost of revenue included a $220 million charge to reflect the LCNRV of inventory and losses on firm purchase commitments. This means that the EV startup’s gross margin would have been -17.13% without accounting for the charge which shows the impressive job done by management to improve per-unit profitability.
(in millions)
Revenue $1,121
Cost of Revenue $1,533
Gross Margin -36.75%
LCNRV Charge 220
CoR excluding LCNRV $1,313
Adjusted Gross Profit -$192
Adjusted Gross Margin -17.13%
Considering that Rivian expects it won’t have material LCNRV inventory charges and losses on firm purchase commitments associated with goods manufactured at its Normal facility by the end of 2024, its target of positive gross margins by the end of 2024 appears to be realistic, especially since it is taking more measures that will further improve its per-unit profitability.
Consolidating ECUs
One of the biggest areas of improvement Rivian is making is its network architecture and consolidating a number of its ECUs into a smaller number of ECUs. These ECUs are little computers that have a specific set of functions that they control and they are found in all modern cars. The number of ECUs per vehicle has grown tremendously as automakers have been racing to add more technology to their vehicles which increases the cost of manufacturing a vehicle.
As part of its hardware upgrade, Rivian is switching to a “zonal control architecture” which means that instead of an ECU having a specific role, the computers are tasked with zones or regions within the vehicles – reducing the number of ECUs and improving efficiency in turn. Ultimately, Rivian intends to reduce the number of ECUs in the vehicle by 60% which would result in a 25% reduction in the wiring harness length in the vehicle as detailed in the Q2 earnings call. The result of this is cost savings worth “multi-thousand” per vehicle according to CEO RJ Scaringe.
Integrating Enduro Motors
Another measure Rivian is taking to save costs is integrating its own Enduro drive – which was designed for the Amazon front-wheel-drive electric delivery vans – into its commercial vehicles. The Enduro motor is intended to be the basic motor used for the upcoming R2 vehicle platform that is expected to roll out in 2026 which will be geared toward smaller and more affordable vehicles that will broaden Rivian’s market reach.
However, by integrating Enduro into its existing vehicles, the company is effectively saving costs while providing its vehicles with a performance edge. Currently, the original Bosch-supplied quad-motor still boasts the best figures with 835 horsepower. In comparison, the dual-motor Enduro delivers 533 horsepower while the performance version provides 665 horsepower.
Max Battery Packs
Although the Enduro-equipped trims pale in comparison to the quad-motor trim, Rivian has made its Max battery available for both trims which can be interpreted as the company making these trims more attractive while showcasing its capabilities ahead of the launch of R2 vehicles.
Through the Max battery, the Rivian R1S SUV features a range of 400 miles which makes it the longest-range seven-passenger electric SUV on the market. Meanwhile, the Max battery provides 410 miles for the R1T pickup truck – making it the longest-range electric pickup on the market. The Max battery costs an additional $10 thousand over the Large battery and $16 thousand more than the smallest battery option. As these trims have a higher price point while costing less due to the inclusion of in-house Enduro motors, Rivian may further improve its gross margins in Q4 2023 since deliveries of R1S with the Max battery will start later this fall.
Switching to LFP Batteries
Rivian is also committed to switching its vehicles to LFP batteries from traditional NCM batteries, a move it already started implementing with its Amazon electric delivery vans earlier this year. This move will significantly drive down costs since LFP batteries are much cheaper than their NCM counterparts as iron phosphate, which is abundant and widely available, is one of the materials used in the production of LFP batteries. In contrast, NCM batteries use materials like cobalt and nickel which are more expensive and in limited supply.
Additionally, all the minerals used in LFP batteries can be obtained in North America which means much lower transportation costs and a more secure supply chain. This is due to manganese being mostly sourced from China while cobalt is mainly found in the Democratic Republic of the Congo where the cobalt mining industry is under scrutiny due to human rights abuses. In this way, Rivian would manufacture its vehicles quicker – allowing for more production.
Once all of these actions are successfully completed, Rivian expects the impact on the cost structure of its R1 program to be similar to the reductions on the EDV program where the company achieved a 35% reduction in material costs jointly with the shutdown that happened at the beginning of the year.
On that note, Rivian is set to temporarily shut down its R1 line for retooling in the middle of 2024, per management in the Q2 earnings call. This shutdown should lead to lower costs while increasing the facility’s annual capacity from the current 65 thousand to 85 thousand and introducing new technologies. While the shutdown will certainly impact the company’s production and delivery figures in 2024, it will allow Rivian to implement the changes it needs to save costs and improve its chances of becoming profitable in the long term.
Valuation
Since Rivian is not profitable yet, using its forward P/S ratio to value it seems to be reasonable. As is, the EV startup is trading at 4.23 forward P/S which seems to be a bargain when comparing it to Tesla (Nasdaq: TSLA) which has nearly double Rivian’s forward P/S at 8.01. Moreover, when comparing Rivian’s forward P/S ratio with Lucid (Nasdaq: LCID), since both are EV Startups with negative margins, it also appears to be a bargain since Lucid boasts a forward P/S of 14.84 – more than triple that of Rivian. Based on this, Rivian may be at an extremely attractive valuation at current levels.
Risks
In addition to the company potentially raising capital again, there is another risk to the bullish thesis which is the current macro environment. With student loan repayments resuming last month after a 3-year pause, consumers may be forced to cut their spending to pay their debts which could leave fewer consumers able to buy a new vehicle. Considering that Rivian’s vehicles are considered to be luxury vehicles given their price point, its sales may be impacted which could see its margins deteriorate.
Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart, RIVN stock is in a bearish trend as it is trading in a downward channel. Looking at the indicators, the stock is above the 200, 50, and 21 MAs which is a bullish sign. Meanwhile, the RSI is approaching overbought at 66 and the MACD is approaching a bearish crossover.
As for the fundamentals, the company’s upcoming Q3 earnings on November 7th will be a major catalyst as investors are anticipating further improvements in gross margin. This could be driven by Rivian’s efforts to save costs which will reflect on its profitability. As such, bullish investors could wait for a successful break of the upper trendline and the $18.2 resistance to go long on RIVN stock ahead of its earnings.
RIVN Forecast
While Rivian’s cash burn rate and its potential to raise capital for at least one more time are risks to consider, the EV startup may be well-positioned to weather the storm thanks to its management’s efforts to improve its profitability prospects. The EV startup improved its gross margin significantly in Q2 2023 which shows that management’s initial actions are successful. With that in mind, the company will temporarily shut down its R1 line in the middle of 2024 to implement the changes that will help it post a positive gross profit by the end of 2024 by consolidating its ECUs, continuing to integrate Enduro motors into R1 vehicles, and switching to LFP batteries. With the stock trading at a discount compared to EV giant Tesla and startup Lucid based on their forward P/S ratio, the current dip could be an opportunity to go long on RIVN stock.
RIVN Rivian Automotive Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold RIVN ahead of the previous earnings:
or here:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of RIVN Rivian Automotive prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 18.50usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-11-17,
for a premium of approximately $0.89.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Rivian Update: Retrace Coming UpHow many here love EWT??? I know I do!!! At the very minimum it told us that price was about to turn around and head higher. I have a follower that stated they were already up 90% on some options they entered. Tell me, what other kind of methods can produce those type of results?? I'll wait...
On the chart I used the 15min which is the smallest I can use for a public post. I left the mini 5 wave count on there from the beginning of this move up to signify the importance of it. It's hard to sustain a new trend without a healthy move to start it off. After the initial 5-wave we had a 3-wave retrace into wave ii. Wave iii really stands out as it is the most powerful move in this structure. On the 3min it suggests we have topped on neg div and will head lower tomorrow in our micro-wave (ii). However, on the larger time frame it appears as if we need OMH to finish out this move up and the fibs support OMH. At this time though, the OMH is my ALT as signified by the turquoise count and yellow box.
Once we start to retrace for (ii) I will make an update with the target to the post through a comment. At this time, I expect it to be in the mid-low $16 range. It is on this wave (ii) that I intend to purchase more calls should price behave appropriately. I will make an update on here if I place any trades.
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
Rivian Update: Did we bottom yet?Today I bought another 20 calls that exp 01/24 with a strike of $25. That gives me a total of 40 calls @ $0.40cents avg price. If price makes another low, I might just buy another 10-20 calls. Today however, we hit $0.01 from the 0.786 fib retracement and proceeded to have a pretty strong retrace after that. On the 3min chart we came just shy of making a new high on MACD. Had we made that new high, I would say probability we bottomed to be high. Since we didn't, I would say there is a 50/50 shot at this time. Should we continue to raise tomorrow and make that new high then it will be a nice big indicator we're headed up.
Until we get our answers, I am content with my positioning. Should price move in my favor this will be a very lucrative trade. Good Luck all!!
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
RIVIAN hit the long-term Buy Zone. Target $21.00.Rivian Automotive (RIVN) hit the Higher Lows Zone and the 1D MACD is close to forming a Bullish Cross. This is a strong bullish combo signal but attention is needed as the price is below both the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
The pattern since the July 27 top is a Bearish Megaphone and Tuesday's low isn't only a Higher Low on the Support Zone but also a technical Lower Low on the Megaphone's bottom. The previous Lower Low rebound formed a top on the 0.618 Fibonacci level. As a result our short-term bullish target is $21.00.
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Rivian Update: OML?Boxes on boxes on boxes lol. I'm sure y'all noticed that there are three boxes on this chart. I decided to leave these boxes as I have been able to refine price a couple times to a more accurate area over time. This last move up looks corrective to me and given how small micro-wave 2 was that doesn't really surprise me micro-wave 4 would be larger. We made what some would call a "triple top" right at the 0.382 fib retracement of micro-wave 3 which is a common end point for wave 4's.
If I am correct and this last move up is still apart of wave v of (C) of II, then OML is on the menu. This is where the smallest box comes in. It is my most recent target and where I believe price will conclude this descent down. With-in this box is the 0.786 fib retracement of the entire wave I, 1.382 of primary (A)-(B) of wave II, and major fib confluence right in the center of the box. I didn't place it there due to the fib confluence either. The fib conf. is just another indicator that price is very likely to bottom there.
There is the possibility that we have bottomed already and should move much higher soon but that has changed to my ALT count. For those that will no doubt be wondering, I am holding on to these calls as they don't expire until January of next year. If price does make a bottom in my target area, then I will buy another 20 contracts minimum as I feel it is a great buy and a potentially very lucrative position.
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
RIVN- Buy the dipGood entry here:
- Key level.
- A big demand zone.
- Quasimodo pattern.
- Trendline as a key level support.
$RIVN: Are We Rejecting 20?Rivian saw some call selling lead the biggest option sales and technically it seems like it's in bad shape. Not sure if growth stocks can support Rivian's costs and proxy plays like NASDAQ:LCID aren't looking much better...
Rivian Update: Retrace Nearly CompleteA follower had asked me to update on Rivian the other day so I figured I'd fill y'all in. Although I haven't been posting on it, I have still been tracking Rivian. We have been progressing nicely in our wave II retrace...almost too nicely.
We have completed our (A)-(B) waves and carved out what appears to be waves 1-4 of our C wave (working on the 4th or 5th now). What I expect to see next is a micro-5-wave count down to around the 1.382 fib line. We could extend out to the 1.618 though so be prepared for that. The secret is in the structure.
One thing I want to make you aware of is that we touched the 1.0 of the (A)-(B) wave and one could argue we have a completed structure for (C). If this is to be the case, we would want to see a HUGE jump up in a very bullish scenario to push us to high $30's - low $40's. The structure off of the $17.35 low doesn't seem bullish to me though. It's overlapping and corrective. For this reason, I believe we still have lower to go.
I will post if/when I make any trades on Rivian.
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
Rivian is trading in a dangerous zone - be patientHello ,
Although Rivian, since it deals with electric cars, is obviously a highly speculative paper. (Since everyone is looking for the next Tesla right now.) If you're thinking about buying Rivian stock, keep in mind that the red zone is a neutral level.
The exchange rate moves in exactly one area, where it can move up and down by 10-20%. So it is not worth taking a position here in any way. Because it would be suicide.
All important things are visible on the graph. Below the red zone, the $13 level could be a good buy zone. Above the red zone, the $38 price target looks realistic.
Do not forget. This does not constitute investment advice. Do your own research before entering a position.
Regards
In extreme cases, we can count on new lows. But this would be triggered by very negative news that directly affects the company or the EV sector.
