RIVN Short IdeaRIVN short trade. Reached monthly highs. Would short down to previous resistance.
Long term bullish on Rivian.
RIVN trade ideas
RIVN - could break up in near futureRIVN went into basing formation since March 2023, testing the level 15.60 (neckline1) at least 4 times before a successful break up on 29 June, followed 2 days later by a huge volume gap up 3rd July. As of yesterday it closed right at the 2nd neckline @ 21.70, which incidentally is just above it's 200 day moving average (a positive).
It's RSI is very strong and there is a reasonable chance it could be breaking above this neckline2 very soon (scenario 1 indicated in red). However, as it is also rather overbought at the moment, we could see another pullback before another attempt to break up (scenario 2 indicated in blue).
Long the break of neckline 2 with initial stop loss below 19.30 (the recent 2 candles low).
The market is volatile and trade management with trailing stops is a good idea. Balancing between how much wiggle room to give it (ie where to place the stop loss) will take some practice and experience.
Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is
Rivian Update: Wave 3 Almost Done?I'm not going to spend much time on this as it is pretty self-evident by my chart. The suuper long wave (2) threw me for a loop as I was not expecting such a long-drawn-out ABC and it made me miss this entire move up from the $13 area. It is what it is though and I have been doing just fine elsewhere. I was planning on jumping in on the retrace and riding out the end of 3 but price didn't make it down to me. Also, I want to note that (3) extended passed 3 extra fib lines. This means that all other targets will be extended out as well. Structure states that we finished wave (4) very fast, which would make sense since wave (2) was so long.
I would expect this wave ((3)) to finish around $22-$25. When it begins to retrace for wave ((4)), I will hopefully have an opportunity to jump back in. However, I don't chase price so it will either come to me or I will stay out. It is the best way I have found to fight FOMO. I NEVER get into a trade unless I have done an analysis beforehand and price comes into my buy zone.
If I make any trades, I will update y'all.
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
Long RIVNHonestly i think they are ugly but have seen 5 Rivns in my area the last few months. Pretty epic IHS pattern forming.... Been DCAing last 3 months...Adding here.
RIVN breaking into value for the year; Huge upside potentialAs RIVN tries to break into value for the year (above $20) it signals the 80% rule meaning there's an 80% chance that it goes to the top of value ($52). Representing more than 100% gain potential in the name. Will keep watching for a hold of the bottom of value.
RIVN LIFT OFF!RIVN forming a close to perfect Head and Shoulders pattern that is quite large, there is also a secondary ascending triangle pattern which is a bullish pattern. Not much resistance all the way up, potential 35% gain.
$RIVN EV Stocks Winners & LosersWhile Rivian Automotive, Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) is currently seeing good Q2 performance after exceeding its estimated Q2 deliveries and signing an agreement with Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) to use its charging network. However, RIVN stock may be currently overvalued compared to other EV stocks following its 17% run after Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) started a rally in the EV market on its record Q2 deliveries. Given the tough competition RIVN is witnessing and its poor margins, investors could find RIVN stock a profitable short play.
RIVN Fundamentals
Exceeding Expectations
Although RIVN is currently seeing a decent Q2 in terms of deliveries, it still has a long way to go to prove that this will not be a one-time thing. RIVN produced almost 14,000 vehicles in Q2 putting it on track to achieve its 50,000 production target for the year. Also, RIVN delivered 12,460 vehicles, 10% more than the forecasted 11,300 deliveries, which may see it exceed its forecasted revenue for Q2.
Furthermore, RIVN may see increased deliveries in 2024 thanks to its agreement with Tesla to provide RIVN drivers access to Tesla’s charging network starting in 2024. The new agreement will increase RIVN’s coverage in the US which can increase demand since one of the biggest concerns for new EV customers is network coverage.
Market Overreaction
With Tesla’s record Q2 deliveries, a strong rally in the electric vehicle market started. While RIVN’s positive Q2 deliveries improved the stock’s outlook, Tesla’s record Q2 deliveries were a major reason for the 17% run. The combination of the two events created the perfect storm for RIVN stock, which may have led to the market overreacting resulting in RIVN stock’s recent run.
Compared to Polestar (NASDAQ: PSNY), which expects to produce 80,000 vehicles in 2023, 60% more than RIVN’s production target, Polestar also has a far better gross margin of 3% compared to -80% for RIVN, which means that RIVN is losing money on every vehicle it sells.
Furthermore, Polestar is closer to profitability than RIVN since it reported a net loss of $9 million only in Q1 2023 compared to RIVN’s $1.3 billion net loss. With all of that combined, it is hard not to see RIVN stock as overvalued compared to other EV stocks since RIVN’s current market cap of $18 billion is more than double that of Polestar. For this reason, investors could find better opportunities in other EV manufacturers than RIVN.
Another reason RIVN’s prospects may not be as bright as investors believe is the competition the company is facing from more established manufacturers in the electric truck market – namely General Motors (NYSE: GM) and Ford (NYSE: F). With this in mind, Ford has already released an electric version of the Ford F-150, the best-selling truck in the US. In this way, it might be harder for RIVN to take hold of the market, since customers are more likely to choose more reliable and familiar names if they chose to transition to an electrical truck.
RIVN Financials
In its Q1 2023 report, RIVN’s assets increased 1.5% QoQ from $17.8 billion to $18.1 billion, while its cash and cash equivalents decreased 2.7% QoQ from $11.5 billion to $11.2 billion. RIVN’s total liabilities increased by 35% QoQ from $4 billion to $5.4 billion.
Revenue has increased 695% YoY from $95 million to $661 million. Operating costs decreased more than 16% from $1,077 million to $898 million, which contributed to the operating loss decrease of 15% YoY from $1.58 billion to $1.34 billion. In this way, RIVN reported a net loss of $1.3 billion – a 15% increase YoY.
Technical Analysis
RIVN stock’s trend is neutral with the stock trading in a sideways channel between $15.78 and $13.31. Looking at the indicators, the stock is trading above the 200, 50, and 21 MAs which are bullish indications. Meanwhile, the RSI is extremely overbought at 94.8 and the MACD is bullish. It is worth noting that the stock has broken its $15.78 resistance leaving behind a gap near $16.7 which may be filled in the future.
As for the fundamentals, RIVN stock just witnessed a catalyst in its Q2 deliveries exceeding analysts’ expectations. Despite this, RIVN could be overvalued at current levels given its fundamentals which could see the stock drop and test the $13 support level – filling the gap on the chart in the process – especially with the RSI extremely overbought at the moment.
RIVN Forecast
It is undeniable that RIVN is having a great quarter, with it exceeding its delivery target for Q2 and being on track to achieve its 2023 production target. That said, RIVN stock may be trading at a premium compared to other EV stocks since its market cap is more than double that of Polestar, which is currently outperforming RIVN in many areas. Furthermore, RIVN may find difficulty growing its market share since it faces tough competition from companies like Ford and General Motors. All of that makes RIVN stock overvalued and may be due to a correction soon – making it a potentially profitable short play.
RIVN RIVN has been playing well in this channel and with the last lower low spring up bounce at the base of the channel made a nice retest back up to its supply zone at this upper range of this channel. There is a little potential flag Im watching for in this range to retest if we can maintain above 15.79. I set the grey zones over under the channel as a melt up and accumulation dip buy zones if it hits those ranges.
This accumulation bounce if we maintain this mid level on the bounce can create a nice run up potential to the 19.68 range IF we get through the grey zone. This is a play out till July 31 to Aug 14.
I will be watching this chop zone and the ABC Correction before looking at the entry at 14.57
Enjoy the education this is all theories not to be taken as financial advice.
RIVIAN: Buy the next pull backRivian Automotive is on the 0.5 Fibonacci level, approaching the top of the 2 month Channel Up with the 1D technicals on solid bullish levels (RSI = 61.905, MACD = 0.260, ADX = 28.294). We will short on the first red 1D candle and target the 1D MA50, where we will open a buy again. The target will be R1 (TP = 17.75). The long term trend on RIVN remains bearish though, we want to see a steady close above the 1D MA200 to buy this for the long term. Noticeably the RSI has been on a Bullish Divergence since the start of the year.
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RIVN - Rising Trend Channel🔹Broken through the floor of a rising trend channel in the short term.
🔹inverse head and shoulders formation.
🔹POSITIVE signal with 15.02 resistance breakout, NEGATIVE with opposite formation reject.
🔹Between support 14 and resistance 15.6.
🔹Volume correlate with price up and down.
🔹Technically POSITIVE for the short term.
Chart Pattern;
🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢
🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵
🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢
Verify it first and believe later.
WavePoint ❤️
June Gainers (RIVN, account up 4.83%)11th trade in June is NASDAQ:RIVN .
Holding period is 0 day.
Account is up 4.83%.
Total return in June is 15.04%.
RIVN - Bullish PitchforkThis is what I am seeing on RIVN, looks very bullish. this pull back was a buying opportunity imho.
RIVN ShortTrade idea for RIVN. If we break resistance and bounce take long to around $17.78 or if we reject at resistance I'd look to short to around $13 area.
Rivian Update: Count Invalidated?As y'all have been seeing, Rivian was playing really nice, hitting all the standard targets, and then all the sudden started to break down. Rather that was the news they were removed from the NASDAQ-100 or something else, it didn't follow through. The only bull count I see left is a leading diagonal into our wave (3), which is extremely unlikely. Diagonal's are so unreliable and for a wave 3 of any degree starting as a leading diagonal...I just don't think it is likely at all. Nonetheless, it is still possible, so until we invalidate it I'll leave it on the chart.
A breach of $13.62 officially invalidates this count and means it was most likely another wave 4 of the C wave it was in.
Whenever we get some more information that I can use I will track Rivian again. Until it starts to paint a more clear picture though I am not trading it. Rivian has a lot of stuff going for it right now. It also has a lot of bad going on with its revenue. Can they pull out of this and be successful?? Imagine how they would have fared had we not had COVID, and the supply crunch that destroyed a lot of businesses. The fact that Rivian has pulled through thus far and is still planning their expansion (plant) into Georgia, gives me great confidence in their future. I don't trade on hopes though, I trade on facts. So for now, I will avoid Rivian.
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
RIVN: Bottomed out, Possible bullish bias toward 20 and 25.7Rivian Automotive (RIVN) has bottomed out which it signals a possible rebound toward 20 and 25.7 mark. If RIVN stock's price holds above 12.5, A possible bullish scenario is in the cards.
trading RIVN to $20 as an option sellerAccording to TipRanks, the average price target of RIVN is $21.14 with a high forecast of $40.00 and a low forecast of $10.00. The average price target represents a 51.00% change from the last price of $14.00.
Rivian Update: Good Ole' Fed DayToday was pretty volatile to say the least. I think either the broader market sell off pulled Rivian down with it, changing the count, or I was one degree off. Both have equal possibilities, as I said before, wave v would've had to extend in order for that count to work. With this count it explains the overlap with wave 1, todays overall price action(choppiness), and it fits better with the bigger picture.
As I have said in the past, the bigger picture count is King. It dictates where price ultimately goes (aside from the unforeseen). That bigger picture count is saying we're headed for $16.46 minimum next. It needs to be soon though. The longer we chop the higher the risk rises of dropping further down.
Whatever happens make sure to protect your assets. Ther is a lot going on in the world today, let alone what is happening with each individual stock. Set your stops!!! Set yourself alarms so you know when price is getting close to your targets...good and bad ones.
I work again tomorrow so not sure how updates/responses will go. There is a good chance I will sell around half of my position soon on one of these next highs. I will update if I make any trades.
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
Promising Falling Wedge Pattern on $RIVNGreetings, Traders! Today, I'm excited to share a compelling technical analysis finding on the stock of Rivian Automotive ( NASDAQ:RIVN ). A falling wedge pattern has been identified, suggesting the potential for a bullish reversal in the near future. Let's delve into the details!
📈 Ticker: NASDAQ:RIVN
📅 Timeframe: Daily Chart
📊 Pattern: Falling Wedge
📉 Understanding the Falling Wedge Pattern:
A falling wedge is a bullish chart pattern characterized by converging trendlines that slope downward. Typically formed during a downtrend, it indicates diminishing selling pressure and the potential for a reversal. This pattern suggests the possibility of an upward price movement.
🔍 Identifying the Falling Wedge on NASDAQ:RIVN :
Upon analyzing the daily chart of NASDAQ:RIVN , the following observations come to light:
1️⃣ Recent downtrend: NASDAQ:RIVN has experienced a decline in price over the past weeks.
2️⃣ Converging trendlines: The upper trendline connects the lower highs, while the lower trendline connects the lower lows.
3️⃣ Decreasing trading volume: As the falling wedge pattern forms, the trading volume has been declining, indicating a potential reduction in selling pressure.
📈 Price Targets and Trading Strategy:
If the falling wedge pattern on NASDAQ:RIVN plays out as anticipated, a potential bullish breakout above the upper trendline might occur, triggering a reversal and potential price appreciation. Consider the following price targets:
1️⃣ Target 1: Resistance level near $100.00
2️⃣ Target 2: Psychological resistance near $120.00
🛡️ Risk Management:
Proper risk management is essential for successful trading. Implement the following risk management techniques:
1️⃣ Set a stop-loss order below the lower trendline to protect against unexpected price fluctuations.
2️⃣ Adjust position size based on your risk tolerance and overall portfolio management strategy.
🔔 Conclusion:
Stay vigilant as Rivian Automotive ( NASDAQ:RIVN ) continues to develop this falling wedge pattern. The formation suggests the potential for a bullish reversal in the near future. However, remember that technical analysis is not foolproof, and market conditions can change rapidly. Consider integrating this analysis with other relevant factors before making trading decisions.
Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Happy Trading! 📈💰
#tradingview #technicalanalysis #fallingwedge #bullishreversal #RIVN #stockanalysis #chartpatterns #tradingstrategies #investing #finance #marketanalysis
RIVN - Building nice multiple bottoms pattern
Test of 200 DMA seems to be in progress. What happens tomorrow could be vital.
If it can break above 16, can squeeze right up to 22 first and then 26.
Failure here again would send this to new low.
Alternate scenario is it keeps building inside the 200 and 60 DMA.
I took a start position today at 15. Will add or trim as PA reveals the trend.
Rivian Update: At Least OMH NeededRivian made quite a bit of progress today. According to the structure it carved out, and the fib levels it tagged, we should currently be in our wave v of 3. The standard fibs on the micro levels indicate price needs to extend out in wave v to meet the bigger picture target for wave 3 of (3). On the chart I have two boxes drawn. The smaller box is the target zone for wave v, and the bigger for wave 3. These two waves are one in the same in the fact that wave v is the end of wave 3, which is why I said wave v needs to extend.
We dropped for what I am calling at this point wave iv, although it could arguably be micro-wave (4), and tagged the 0.236 retracement fib. We could still drop and tag the 0.382 retracement but shouldn't go much lower than that if this drop isn't over already. I expect tomorrow to continue in the green, and depending on what price does, I may sell a portion of my position for a scalp. If I do so I will update y'all on here, as soon as I can.
I do work the next two days, so I don't know how much time I will have to watch the markets/update y'all. Just be careful and remember to use stops. So far, we are up about 10% or so on this trade. I would hate for someone to go into a loss because they didn't protect their assets. Right now, technically price could drop all the way to $12.41 and not invalidate the big picture. However, if this count is correct, I don't believe we should drop below $13.63 for any reason. Once we move past $15.68 strongly, we shouldn't fall back under that price for quite a while.
$15.75 is still the magic number to confirm wave (3) is under way. Until then, there is still a possibility we could fall towards that $12.41. Like I said, very very unlikely though.
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
RIVNHere's one worth watching, broken short term trend, bullish engulfing candle on twice relative volume. Needs a daily close and retest of 15.70 area for confirmation PT 1= $21. stock is relatively inexpensive. The way I'd play this is buy shares and sell weekly covered calls against it to protect downside, that way you capitalize no matter what direction it goes in.
Rivian Update: Awaiting ConformationNot going to spend much time on this. As stated earlier, there is a chance we have already bottomed in wave (2) and have started to move higher for (3). If price breaks $15.07 it is our first big clue we likely bottomed. Breaking $15.68 confirms it. From there I expect us to hit $16.46 at a minimum. Until we start to hit those targets though, we can still continue lower towards my target box.
I will post any and all trades I make. Good luck!
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
