Story of Bubbles!
George Soros:
Stock market bubbles don't grow out of thin air. They have a solid basis in reality, but reality as distorted by a misconception.
I started my article with George Soros's quote and will continue with his great wisdom about bubbles!
I think he was the one who benefitted from stock market bubbles the most! and this happened because of his approach to identifying and trading these bubbles!
George Soros:
“When I see a bubble forming, I rush in to buy, adding fuel to the fire,”
Most people rushed into buying RIVN or LCID because they think this could be the next Tesla, and they did not want to miss this opportunity!
This story is very similar to Workhorse's story in the past 3 years!
I published 14 articles about workhorse between September 8th, 2020, and May 6th, 2021.
7 Bullish articles when the price was between 19.78-28.5, and target price of 40-42!
WKHS reached 42.96 and closed at 41.32 on Feb 4th, 2021, priced made a top formation, and on Feb 11, 2021, I published a Short analysis when the price was 37.21.
My first target price for WKHS short was 20-21 and then modified it to 10-11 and after that 5-4 in my last analysis!
WHKS reached 4.92 and closed at 5.01 after 6 months!
I wrote about this practical example because I want to mention:
1- The Bubble story repeats based on the same or different misconception that seems real!
2- The price Pattern moves Exponentially in both directions, either the inflation phase or the deflation phase!
3-Less experienced investors think prices will always be back at the previous highs or lows, which is not the case in many cases!
4- If you can not distinguish the different phases of a bubble, you will lose a big percentage of your trading capital!
5- Average Volume Price is the best tool to monitor speculative bubbles.
6- I strongly recommend reading about Reflexivity
What Is Reflexivity?
Reflexivity in economics is the theory that a feedback loop exists in which investors' perceptions affect economic fundamentals, which in turn changes investor perception.
Conclusion:
Please review Lucid and Rivian plans for the future!
The Lucid goal is to manufacture 400K cars each year! BUT Casa Grande, AZ, is operational with a production capacity to deliver up to 34,000 vehicles per year.
Rivian: The company says its factory in Illinois has the capacity to produce up to 150,000 vehicles per year. About 65,000 of those should be R1T pickup trucks and SUVs, and about 85,000 should be the company's RCV commercial delivery vans, Rivian said in financial filings.
Delivery so far 154 ..!
If you are looking at these numbers, you easily understand that they even don't have any plan to be the next Tesla..!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
Reference articles:
www.investopedia.com
