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RIVN trade ideas

Rivian Update--01/16/24I'm going to be busy the rest of today and all tomorrow so I wanted to get this out to you now. The main chart I have on display is the daily showing where we are headed next for our wave 3 of (5). Another reason I wanted to show the daily was for the candle that formed today. Again, I don't subscribe to this type of analysis, but knowing different forms of analysis only helps one grow in their ability to predict markets. The daily candle formed today is called a bullish hammer and is one of the top signals to foretell a big move higher is coming up. This, combined with my thought of us being so close to a wave 2 bottom, helps to give me extra confidence and clarity in the count. Also, look at the daily MACD. It is starting to curve to signify a change in trend is likely about to start. We're also in the target box for a standard retrace despite my thoughts we would get a shallow wave 2. On the below 3min chart, I have labels showing we have so far carved out an impulsive looking 3 waves with a 4th that is almost complete if not already. If we can get the OMH I mentioned earlier (wave 5), followed by a 3-wave corrective move down (abc), that will be the confirmation we need to say the bottom is in fact in. How big these moves will be I do not know. Until we have that confirmation though we can still drop further. The next fib resistance we have is the 0.786 retracement @ $16.78. I will update as able tomorrow but can't make any guarantees. P.S I bought another 20 shares with my smaller account today to lower my avg cost/share. I also bought those 5 calls I mentioned earlier. Total Rivian Holdings: 520 Shares 25 Calls Friendly Reminder: Beginning March 1st (~7 weeks), I will be dramatically changing my posting schedule here on trading view.
NASDAQ:RIVNLong
by TSuth
11
Rivian UpdateAs I mentioned in my last update, we very well could be in an ending diagonal. Looking at the price action from last week, the descent was very choppy and overlapping. Generally speaking, ED's are 5-wave motive waves, made up of 3-wave moves. Wave 3's are usually more exaggerated compared to the rest of the motive wave, but there aren't really any rules governing ED's aside from wave 4 "slightly" overlapping wave 2. ED's are usually very difficult to distinguish from until they are nearly complete. They're the biproduct of indecisiveness and occur at the change of a trend. In this case we're finishing our c-wave and about to head up for wave 3. Many people have doubts about Rivian's ability to thrive in this market which could very easily be the reason for the ED. One thing I seem to notice about stocks, is right before they take off, all the sudden good news starts to show up in news/articles. This weekend I started to see more and more articles complimenting Rivian and how it is in a good buy area for the price target analysts have set for it. People are mentioning how Rivian has beat production estimates and always seem to beat wall street's expectations for earnings. This, combined to where we are in the count, gives me great confidence this week should be a good week for Rivian. Again, I am no fortune teller. I interpret charts and make the best conclusions I can out of the information I am given. I am also not able to predict "when" things will happen, but only that they "will likely" happen. I have placed a question mark next to the mini 5 because it could easily make another slight low if this is in fact an ED. The move up off of that low doesn't appear impulsive to me, but another thing I have mentioned is micro counts can be deceptive. RN Elliot theorized that all price action is fractal in nature, but I highly doubt he had the access to 3-minute charts as we do. My best guess is he had 4Hr and up charts for the most part with a possibility of hourly charts. Looking at the 1HR chart we have what could be considered a 1-2,1-2 or looking at the 4HR chart we just have 2 small green bars. From these larger pictures, it is impossible to know if we have bottomed yet or not. One thing I can say is, MACD has been on positive divergence for some time now, so when this thing finally takes off, I expect it to have the power of a wave 3. Until then I will continue slowly adding to my position averaging down for lift-off. Current Rivian Assets: 500 shares 20 Calls Friendly Reminder: Beginning March 1st (~7 weeks), I will be dramatically changing my posting schedule here on trading view.
NASDAQ:RIVNLong
by TSuth
26
Rivian Update: Are we there yet?Rivian has been taking its sweet time to make this bottom, but all the while it is making some serious positive divergence. At the bottom of this post, you will find my 3min chart which shows we have been on pos. div. since Jan 2nd. As mentioned in my update earlier, we bounced right in between the 0.236 yellow fib and blue 0.618 fib lines. When I draw a fib extension for this first sub-division of our wave (3), it shows we should conclude right around the yellow 1.236 fib line @ $46.50, which is also a "normal" spot for this part of the motive wave to end. How long that will take, I have no idea. Judging from the current price action though, we should start the trek up there soon. There is always the possibility this has all been the a of 2 but I find that highly doubtful. This would be a VERY deep a wave and not the norm...but not impossible. For this reason, I will keep it on the chart until we make a new high above our wave 1. Looking at MACD, we need to stay above the bottom red line, and once this move up starts, it should breach the upper red line. On the main chart at the top, I have drawn a trend line from our wave i start to our wave ii end. Look at where todays price action bounced. Coincidence? I don't believe so and believe it is another sign this bottom is very close if not made today. I know I have said that a couple times recently, but that is because I keep getting indicators that the bottom is possibly carved or imminent. Things signs just keep piling up and reinforcing my thought process and resolve. Regardless of if this is the bottom or not, we are at minimum due for a decent retrace. This also goes to support my strategy of slowly building into a position. If you just spend your entire trade allocation at one time you get worried when price drops at all. By entering slowly, I see it as an opportunity to lower my buy in and acquire more before we launch. I still remember y'alls reaction when we took off the first time, the second time, and now about to be a third time. Hopefully by now, you are learning how to better enter and exit trades as I have been too. God saw fit to teach me EWT, and I for one will not stray. I will continue to have faith in this strategy He has shown me. If the count is wrong, we will see it in the structure. When this takes off for wave 3 of (3) I WILL be ready and positioned. Will you? Good luck everyone!!
NASDAQ:RIVNLong
by TSuth
20
Rivian UpdateOn the micro's Rivian has some serious positive divergence. As said in my last post, I believe the bottom is in for this wave 2. We don't have confirmation yet though, so we could technically make OML toward the 0.236 yellow fib @ $18.66. If that were to happen, I would expect the drop to be swift as well as the move back up. Confirmation doesn't come until we breach $24.57, but once we start to move up, I don't think it will be long before we take that high out. Don't forget about that turquoise a label. This suggests this drop has all been a part of just the a wave. The reason I feel this is possible...you guessed it, MACD . If this is the case, then I would expect us to rise to around $21-$22 before falling for c wave. Due to how far we have already dropped, and the action carved out thus far, I believe this is all of 2. Time will tell. Good luck everyone. Rivian Assets at this time: 500 shares 10 calls I will be out of town for the next two days on a mini vaca for my sons b-day. I'll still have access to the charts via my phone, but it isn't the same as a computer. Due to this I won't be making new posts tomorrow night but will post again Thursday night. Also, I want to remind everyone, starting March 1st, my posting schedule will be dramatically altered.
NASDAQ:RIVNLong
by TSuth
10
Rivian Update: Bottom appears in for 2I think we finally made our bottom for wave 2 today. As you all may know, I bought an additional 7 calls to bring my total holdings to 10 calls and 450 shares. There are a few signs telling me this has most likely bottomed with a main one being MACD. If you notice, there is a line at the bottom that it DID NOT breach. Now, it could turn around and head lower of course, but the fact it has completely curled up and created a green line tells me it shouldn't though. From here I expect MACD to start raising with great strength pushing price to create a new high. Don't forget wave 3's are the usually the strongest move with-in any structure. I don't expect this to be any different and should push us up to $36.87 at a minimum before any meaningful retrace. When price breaches $24.62 I will remove the turquoise count from the chart as it will at that point be invalidated. I may even buy a few more contracts tomorrow depending on how pre-market goes. If I do, I will be looking at march for exp with a strike around the $30-$35 area. As always, I will place any trades I make on here as soon as I can. Tomorrow I will be occupied most of the day but will update as able. God bless all of you reading this and may He bring you good fortune!
NASDAQ:RIVNLong
by TSuth
10
Rivian Update: Bottomed or OML?The title presents a very good question. IMO, according to the count/structure we are in a new bull cycle for Rivian. They are in a huge growth cycle for their company. The only problem I see is the overall state of the global economy. This goes for all companies because if people hardly have enough money to put food on the table, they aren't going to go out and spend a bunch of money on a new luxurious EV. With the head scratching fierceness governments have for moving away from gas powered engines, it could counter this. Most states can't handle the amount of energy needs as it is with blackouts becoming the norm in states like California though. I have no idea how they plan on supporting millions of EV's on top of the already overbearing energy needs. Only way I see plausible, is nuclear energy, or if this new fusion tech becomes mainstream AND affordable. If Rivian makes another low, I expect the 0.236 to act as a major support and bounce price from there. As said before, we are past micro fib levels and can only use the larger fibs at this time. If we drop below the 0.236 yellow fib then the blue fibs are our next guide. I have an open order for 7 more calls with strike: $27.50 exp: Feb 16 @ 0.10 cents/contract. Should this fill and move against me I would lose a total of $120 including the other 3 calls I already have. I'm willing to risk $120 for the potential to make 4-5x that at a minimum. I will be watching the markets tomorrow and will update if fireworks happen. Reminder: My schedule will change dramatically starting March 1st.
NASDAQ:RIVN
by TSuth
4
Rivian Update: Start of 3 or bSome of my posts contained some contraband and were removed. The text has been removed and I am just re-posting so y'all can still see the other information. As the title suggests, this is the next question we should be asking ourselves. Again, the structure is what will tell us this. The move up we got yesterday from $19.66 was clearly a 5-wave move followed by a corrective move down in pre-market. Was this the start of a retracement or a new impulsive move higher though? We are getting a pretty deep move down this morning, but wave 2's can retrace up to 99.9% of wave 1 and still be considered valid. This is not typical but nonetheless can absolutely happen. If we start to raise up from here, then we will have our answer. A new low below $19.66 and that tells us the move down wasn't quite complete. We still have positive divergence at this time in the micros though, so a move down is not what I expect. Structure will determine where we are headed, and I suspect we will get our answer today. For now, we are still hitting our standard/normal fib levels and the overall larger count is still very much intact. I currently own 450 shares and will most likely hold them for a while. If/when I sell them, I will update that on here as always.
NASDAQ:RIVN
by TSuth
3
Rivian Update: Wave 2 done or just starting?Some of my posts contained some contraband and were removed. The text has been removed and I am just re-posting so y'all can still see the other information. Today was the perfect example of why we track ALT counts. Had we not looked at different counts, and only planned for a raise in price, we would have been caught with our pants down. Due to this we weren't surprised by this move, or at least shouldn't have been. I still have my shares as it is a very small position and will most likely accumulate more soon. Price has to do what I expect though, or I stay put. This is a very good rule to trade by as it helps to protect your account and prevent unnecessary losses. EVERYONE should have a set of rules they trade by. I was originally calling for a flat abc due to how high b retraced, but we went deeper than a flat would have today. Price entered my wave 2 target box, bottomed on positive divergence, and bounced .01 cent from the 2.382 fib extension. We could still get another low to hit the 2.618 extension / 0.382 retracement fib around the $20.40 area, but it is not required. Once we start to raise in wave 3, we should head towards the 1.0 @ $36.87. Speaking about ALT's, notice I already have a new ALT count added to the chart where we bottomed. This signifies our retrace could all just be the a wave of 2. If this is the case, then I would expect a small corrective move up towards $22 before falling again for wave c. The deciding factor will be in the structure carved out on the move higher. The primary reason this is my ALT as of now, is my larger count suggesting we are in wave (3). I expect most retraces to be short and shallow due to the overall strength and momentum pushing us higher in this wave. Technically speaking, price could drop all the way down to $16.78 and still be considered "standard". This is not my expectation for the previously listed reason.
NASDAQ:RIVN
by TSuth
Rivian Update: Will we finally get the push higher tomorrowPrice has started to become a little complex and confusing since the 20th of last week. When one boils it down though, we have been making higher lows in price and MACD. This bodes well for us to continue higher. Yes, price fell decently hard today after it hit $24.29 but it didn't make a new low and neither did MACD. In fact, MACD was raising during the entire post market even though price stayed stagnant. Using history to help guide me, that is usually a sign we will be headed up soon. The argument against that, is MACD started raising to reset for another drop. Of course, that is definitely possible but not my primary thought. I won't go to deep into details as I feel I have been very thorough with my Rivian updates. Primary - Start to raise tomorrow for wave iii of (v) - should ideally be a strong move ALT - Fall for wave c indicating MACD was indeed just resetting to prepare for a drop. This would ideally end no lower than $21 2nd ALT - wave (i) is already over and we are headed lower...which should end around the 0.382 @ $21.25 with a possibility to drop to the 0.236 @ $18.66 Tomorrow should bring clarity to the count and give us a better picture of what is coming next. At this time, I still have my 250 shares. Should price move up towards the 0.786 @ $30.47, I stand to make almost $2000. If it falls to worst case scenario according to my count, I could be down $1250 if I let it ride but would make it right back on the next push higher. This is probably one of the lowest risk/reward trades I will enter. This is why I am trading such a small amount compared to my account size. Even still, I stand to make more then I stand to lose. Should price move against me, I will most likely make it right back due to counting this as a bullish trend. This doesn't mean go out and put your house on this trade. As I mentioned, I'm in a very small position. This protects my assets while exposing me to potential profit. Stops protect me even further. Are y'all getting a sense of what type of trader I am yet? Patience. Patience. Patience.
NASDAQ:RIVN
by TSuth
18
Rivian Update: Did we get a set-up today?Today someone commented on my Tesla post saying I am always calling for the stock to go up/down or down/up. Well yea, that's kind of how markets work. If you don't understand how they move, maybe you should study a little bit before making trades. I also want to reiterate one of the most important trading qualities people can have, patience. It is not necessary to trade every mechanism with-in the markets. Wait until you have a good risk/reward ratio before entering, and even then, you should use stops to protect your assets. It's kind of like gambling. Are you going to bet everything on two pair? If so, let's play some poker, because I'll have patience and wait until I have four-of-a-kind. IDK about y'all, but I'm in this to make money not give it away. Bluffing doesn't work in this business, and you will lose your ass every time. That being said, let's talk action. Yesterday we got a strong move up to $24.62 and then dropped to $23.14. This could either be a surprise b or the start of a i-ii, 1-2 as I said in an update. MACD is what makes me think we should head higher tomorrow for our wave iii, but until we make a new high in price & MACD, we don't have confirmation. I have said since the beginning of this move up @ $15.12 that it was very possible to extend to the 0.786 fib @ $30.47. Well, we have already extended past normal targets on a micro scale as well as the macro. Price made it past the 0.5 fib and is coming up on the 0.618. Also, we are inside of the target box for our wave 1 ending. Sure, when you boil down to the micros it can become confusing and give false signals but check out the weekly below. See the strength of the last move up? It isn't even showing a micro-wave 4 yet for wave 1 of (3). This is another clue that is leading me to believe wave 1 isn't done yet. My expectation is for it to hit the 0.618 or slightly past, before carving out the micro-wave 4 and then rising to the 0.786 to finish wave 1. Don't get me wrong, I'm not a fortune teller and will never pretend to be. I look at markets and make assumptions based off of the price action I see. When I get a clear picture, I make a move. If the picture is hazy, I stay out and protect my capital. If that means I go 3 weeks without making a single trade so be it. I know that when I do finally make another trade, I will have a high probability of making money, which is why I do this. Enough of my soap box tonight. God bless and good luck everyone. Please use patience and stops. I can't stress them enough. P.S: If you think this market is hard to trade, just wait until next year when it starts a multi-decade corrective structure to the downside.
NASDAQ:RIVN
by TSuth
17
Rivian Update: Continued extension or b wave?Earlier this morning I updated y'all to a position I took in the pre-market. I bought 50 shares @ $23.47. This was a calculated move I made due to the upside potential as it was a 1:3 risk reward ratio. Normally I would like better odds than that which is why I took a small position. This minimizes potential losses while still exposing me to the upside. It would have to drop over 10% just for me to lose $150. I'll take those odds. The primary reason I am thinking we are extending more to the upside is due to MACD on the 3min timeframe. It made a new local high with price making a new high too. This to me says price will at a minimum make a new high with a lower MACD reading before the next main retrace. That will set price up to drop on neg divergence. On the chart you will see I have another micro-5-wave impulsive move labeled pointing us to the $26 area at a minimum, which is my primary. The ALT count to this would be a larger than normal b wave, with c about to start for a flat ABC and would end around $22-$23. This would either be wave 2 or a micro-wave 4 of some degree. We need some type of conformation though, and we won't get that until we breach some key levels. To the upside, the first key level is our prior high, taking us preferably into the 1.618 area @ $25.24. We would then retrace for wave iv of v of (v) of 1 before raising to the yellow 0.618-0.786 fibs to finish out the move up. To the downside, the level is $22.61. Below that and a drop lower is confirmed but will also mean the move down is about over due to the flat I mentioned earlier. Hence the calculated move I made this morning. Above $28.50 and I remove the orange ALT. Below is a 3min chart showing the micros. Check out how high the MACD went on this timeframe. This cannot and should not be ignored. I would be very surprised if a b wave made a reading this high. Not impossible, but highly doubtful. In these precarious times when price has a decision to make, it is imperative to take small positions and set stops to protect your assets. I for one, have no intentions of giving up my hard-earned capital. If we do breach our upside levels, I will most likely buy more shares and some calls during our micro-wave iv retrace. I haven't went shopping yet but would most likely be looking for a feb exp date with a strike around $26-$30. For now, I wait more clues. Bonam Fortunam, --Tyler
NASDAQ:RIVNLong
by TSuth
7
Rivian Update: Tomorrow "should" be RedAs the title suggests, I fully expect tomorrow to be a red day for at minimum, the beginning of the (c) wave of 2, or c of (a) of 2. We can't know which part of wave 2 this is until we get the C wave at least started. I still have that smaller box in the chart, but make no mistake, that would be considered a shallow retrace. Hence the debate on what part of 2 this is making up. Due to the fact that we raised so high though for what I am calling wave 1, it is causing me to think that this count will follow a "normal" extended type of rise. You will hear me say "normal" a lot because that is all I have to go on until price action gives us more details/data to refine my decisions. There are a few things that will help me distinguish which part of the retrace this is. As usual, MACD will help guide me, along with what type of structure is carved out after the this downward move is finished. Say we hit the small target box and then start to raise impulsively, then we know that was all of wave 2. If the move up is weak, and is choppy, you know that this was just c of (a) of 2 and we will head back down towards the yellow 0.236 fib. The reason I zoomed out on the hourly, is so y'all can get a view of where we started. On the left hand side you see the (C) wave towards the bottom? That is where all of this started...and I called it. We then proceeded to move higher in a 5-wave impulsive fashion from $11.68 to $28.48. We then retraced in a 3-wave corrective move down to $15.12, which I also forecasted using only EWT. Since November 10th we have moved up in a micro-5-wave impulsive fashion from the $15.12 bottom to $24.57 to complete what I am calling wave 1. Now remember, nothing has been "confirmed" as of yet since we haven't breached the prior wave 4. Given MACD and other clues, I am calling this complete at this time though. If wave 1 is in fact done, then we should retrace in a corrective 3-wave fashion marked with overlap. So far, I have 2 waves complete, with the clues pointing to a move down tomorrow creating the third wave. Is that all or just (a), idk but we should find out tomorrow or at least receive some clues at the minimum. Let me really give y'all something to argue with me about lol. I predict that by the time this intermediate 5-wave move is done, Rivian will be trading around $75 at a minimum with a possible high of $150 with extensions. As y'all know I don't predict time as EWT has no mechanism to do so, but I feel we should be hitting those end targets around the 4th quarter of 2024. Keep in mind, I leave my emotions at the door and ONLY use facts/data the charts provide. I am not attached to ANY count as I care more about making money than being right. That is why you all see me trading conservatively the vast majority of the time. With this strategy, I have grown my ENTIRE portfolio by about 41% YTD and 74% since I took my account over 1.5-2years ago. This isn't to brag; it is to show you all, with strict rules and EWT you can make some serious cash. Not to mention the effects of compound interest. Because of these rules/form of analysis, I will be starting the new year with considerably more cash than this year. So, 41% profit in 2024 will create much much higher profits/returns. Fast forward 10 years, and think of where you could be with these kinds of results? Again, not bragging, just trying to stress how life changing this can be. Should you all decided to take the next step with me early next year, you too could achieve these results. Just ask some of my longer-term followers on here how they have fared this year. Long-term Followers: Don't provide in depth details, but if you wouldn't mind sharing what kind of percentages you made this year, that would be amazing. This will hopefully help others to realize the potential here and possibly even change their lives, as mine has been changed. Just think about the freedom this could provide you and your family. I moved to part time Dec. 10th and am already preparing to quit altogether and work full time trading, making substantially more money. This will create complete freedom and complete independence from EVERYONE...FOREVER!!! As you vets know, I did this in LESS THAN 2 years time..... I want to wish everyone good luck regardless of whatever you decide to do, and may God bless you and your entire family. Bonam Fortunam, --Tyler
NASDAQ:RIVNShort
by TSuth
54